FT : Samsung Display to inject $11bn into next-generation screens

Samsung Display to inject $11bn into next-generation screens
South Korean company hopes to surpass rivals by shifting out of LCD production

Samsung Display will invest $11bn in next-generation display technology over the following six years to stay ahead of Chinese rivals and South Korea’s LG Display in the growing market for large television panels.

The world’s biggest display maker will build a production line in central South Korea to produce large-size organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV panels — above 65 inches — in 2021. It will also accelerate the conversion of its liquid crystal display lines into OLED production in the shift away from commoditised LCD panels. 

Samsung’s bet on OLED technology comes as it grapples with growing price pressure from low-cost Chinese rivals in the LCD business. But the investment is smaller than expected, analysts said, especially compared with its big investment in small-size OLED screens used for smartphones a few years ago. 

Samsung has a dominant position in the small-sized OLED panel market and is a big supplier for Apple’s new iPhone screen, but has hit a snag in scaling that up to larger TV screens. 

The South Korean company will spend Won10tn ($8.4bn) building facilities for what it calls quantum-dot display and Won3.1tn in related research and development by 2025.

“Quantum-dot, which is a semiconductor particle that emits light close to natural colour, is the future growth vision of the large-size display industry,” said Lee Dong-hoon, the company’s president. “We will lead the premium display market through this investment.”

But Samsung’s refusal to adopt OLED TV panels took a toll on display margins as Chinese producers flooded the LCD market with cheaper panels. LG Display continued to improve mass production technology of OLED TV panels at a lower cost, making them for Japan’s Sony and Chinese TV manufacturers.

Samsung remains the number one TV producer, controlling about 30 per cent of the global TV market in the first half of this year, followed by LG Electronics with 16.5 per cent and Sony with 8.5 per cent, according to market researcher IHS.

But the company has reduced its display investment to Won800bn in the first half of this year and Won2.9tn last year from Won9.8tn in 2016 and Won13.5tn in 2017, when it bet on smartphone OLED screens. 

Samsung’s latest investment plan will probably expand the OLED TV market size, said CW Chung at Nomura, noting that OLED TVs still account for just 2 per cent of the global TV market. 

Kim Young-woo, an analyst at SK Securities, said: “Samsung’s quantum-dot OLED technology could be an improved version of LG’s OLED technology but is about 20 per cent more expensive. What counts is how to cut the cost.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of October 201

>>> Up
* Apple Upgraded to Buy at Longbow; PT Set to $260
* Metso Oyj Upgraded to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 36 Euros
* Neoen Upgraded to Buy at SocGen; PT Set to 27.50 Euros
* Rio Tinto Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT 48.50 Pounds
* Saint-Gobain Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 42 Euros
* Vonovia Upgraded to Buy at ABN Amro Bank

>>> Down
* Rheinmetall Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT Set to 115 Euros
* VW Reinstated at Goldman With Buy; PT 193 Euros
* Wartsila Downgraded to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 10 Euros

>>> Initiation
* AMD Rated New Buy at Citic Securities; PT $35
* BPER Banca Resumed at Citi With Neutral; PT 3.80 Euros
* DSV Panalpina A/S Resumed at Citi With Neutral; PT 675 Kroner
* Moncler Rated New Buy at China Renaissance; PT 40 Euros
* Ocado Rated New Inline at Evercore ISI
* Porsche SE Reinstated at Goldman With Buy; PT 77 Euros
* TeamViewer Rated New Buy at Commerzbank; PT 36 Euros
* Titan Cement International Rated New Underperform at Exane

>>> Call
* Novozymes Forecast Cut May Hurt Credibility, Citi Says
* Saint-Gobain ‘Finally’ Delivers on Targets, Morgan Stanley Says

>>> What to look at today - 10th of October 2019

Thursday morning was not one for coffee breaks for traders in Asia, with markets whipsawed by contrasting headlines on the chances of some sort of progress in critical U.S.-China trade talks.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index initially fell sharply on concerns that the negotiations -- scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Washington -- might be cut short. They erased most losses after news from Bloomberg that next week’s tariff hike could be suspended and a report from the New York Times that President Donald Trump could let some U.S. companies supply Huawei Technologies Co.
Japanese shares also recouped most of their decline, while South Korean ones were still well down. Hong Kong and Shanghai edged up. The yuan climbed after sliding earlier, and the yen dipped after seeing early gains. Crude oil was also whipsawed, erasing most of its early losses. Treasuries ticked higher.
US After Hours BBBY +22% on new CEO appointment, PCG plummets on bankruptcy judge decision 

Nikkei +0.29% Hang Seng +0.18% CSI +0.14% Shanghai +0.19% Shenzen +0.51%

Eur$ 1.0988 CNY 7.1144 CNH 7.1174 GBP 1.2229 JPY 107.45 chf 0.9947 WTI$ 52.49 -0.20%

S&P -0.05% EuroStoxx +0.23%% Dax +0.12% SMI+0.25%

Macro :
- China Won’t Give Trump All He Wants, Says Private Equity Chief
- Fed Officials Getting Serious About Strategies for Low Inflation
- Trump Is Tweeting Less About China and That’s Good for Stocks
- Trump Threatens Turkey if Kurds Get Wiped Out: Syria Update
- Trump Considers Order on China Parcels to Detect Contraband: FT

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : AerCap Picks Up Airbus Jet Orders Dropped by Norwegian: Reuters
- ALM SM : Almirall Says Dermira Starts Phase 3 Study of Lebrikizumab
- BBVA SM : BBVA Seeks to Sell EU1.3B Real Estate Portfolio: Confidencial
- BAS GY : LafargeHolcim Is Said to Decide Against Bid for BASF Unit
- BOSN SW : Bossard Sees Full Year Ebit Margin Low End Of 10% To 13%
- BWNG LN : N Brown 1H Rev. GBP432.9m, FY Expectations Unchanged (1)
- CO FP : Casino Agrees to Sell LTV Poultry Processing Site to LDC
- CLN SW : Millennium, Integrated Core Hold 3.45% in Clariant: SIX
- DEB LN : Debenhams Raises New GBP50m Facility With Some Existing Lenders
- DBV FP : Investors Revolt on Another IPO in Wake of Peloton: ECM Watch
- DBV FP : DBV: ADS Global Offering Close Expected Oct. 15
- DNLM LN : Dunelm 1Q LFL Sales +6.4%, Keeps Views Amid Uncertainty (1)
- ENX FP : Euronext Sept. Equity Derivatives Avg. Daily Volume -0.6% Y/Y
- FXPO LN : Ukraine Seeks to Add Ferrexpo CEO to International Wanted List
- GXI GY :
- GEBN SW : Geberit Board Member Thomas M. Huebner Dies
- G IM : Delfin Never Considered Generali Spinoff From Mediobanca: Ansa
- GWI LN : Globalworth Real Estate to Place 28.6m Shares at EU9.25 Apiece
- GIVN SW : Givaudan Third Quarter Sales 1.3% Below Estimates
- HL/ LN : Hargreaves Lures New Customers, Shaking Off Woodford Woes
- HL/ LN : Hargreaves Saw New Business Impacted By Brexit, Macro Issues
- ISP IM : Italy Banks Bad Loans Slip to EU87.6b in August on Month: BOI
- ISAT LN : U.K. Govt. Leaning to Approve Inmarsat Buyout
- IQE LN : IQE Agrees to Buy Out CSDC Venture in Singapore
- LHN SW : LafargeHolcim Is Said to Decide Against Bid for BASF Unit
- LWB LN : Low & Bonar Sees Significant Risk If Financial Covenants Tested
- MC FP : LVMH 3Q Sales Beat Estimates Despite Difficult Hong Kong Context
- MC FP : LVMH 3Q ‘Very Strong,’ Shares Likely to Open Higher: Bernstein
- MB IM : Delfin Never Considered Generali Spinoff From Mediobanca: Ansa
- COX FP : Nicox Agrees With Kreos to Raise Bond Financing
- NZYMB DC : Novozymes Cuts Full Year Organic Revenue Forecast
- ONCO SS : Stiftelsen Industrifonden Sells 3m Shares In Oncopeptides
- PHIA NA : Philips Third Quarter Revenue EU4.7 Bln, Philips Sees Lower ‘19 Adj. Ebitda Margin Raise on Headwinds (1)
- RNO FP : Nissan Gives Cold Comfort to Brexit-Threatened Sunderland Plant
- RIO LN : Fortescue Sees Guinea Bid as Positioning For Iron Ore’s Future
- SBRE LN : Sabre Sees FY2019 Combined Ratio ‘Slightly Better’ Than Target
- SRG IM : Hydrogen Could Feed 25% of Italy’s Energy by 2050, Snam Says
- SHA GY : Schaeffler Seeks Additional 1,300 Voluntary Exits: WiWo
- SZU GY : Suedzucker Maintains FY Operating Profit EU0 To EU100 Mln
- UCB BB : UCB to Buy Ra Pharmaceuticals for $48/Share in Cash
- UCG IM : UniCredit CEO Plans to Pass on Negative Rates to Customers
- UN01 GY : Uniper Deputy Chairman Says Fortum Is Still Hostile to Interests
- VID SM : Vidrala in Talks to Sell Belgium Business to Saverglass
- XPP LN : XP Power Sees Performance for FY in Line With Current Views

>>> Trade Gate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • VW (VOW3 TH) +0.5%
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.5%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.3%
    • Vonovia Upgraded to Buy at ABN Amro Bank
  • EON (EOAN TH) +0.3%
  • Wirecard (WDI TH) -0.8%
MDAX:
  • Hugo Boss (BOSS TH) +1.6%
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) +1.1%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +0.9%
  • Duerr (DUE TH) +0.8%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -0.5%
  • Siemens Healthineers (SHL TH) -0.7%
SDAX:
  • Encavis (CAP TH) +0.9%
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +0.6%
  • Corestate (CCAP TH) +0.6%
  • Steinhoff (SNH TH) -1.1%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) -2%
    • Suedzucker Maintains FY Operating Profit EU0 To EU100 Mln

FT : Donald Trump trade team’s unified front tested in China talks

Donald Trump trade team’s unified front tested in China talks
Top US officials have stuck together ahead of latest round of negotiations with Beijing

In a White House that has been beset by public clashes, deep differences of opinion and rapid turnover, Donald Trump’s top trade negotiating team has largely learned how to present a unified front — adding a new dynamic to talks with Beijing.

The relative stability — despite some disagreements — marks a contrast to the open clashes that flared up in previous years among the US president’s key trade officials, and the divisions that were exposed on Mr Trump’s national security team by John Bolton’s exit last month.

“For the most part there has been greater unity on China. There have been tactical differences — certain principals were more likely to up the ante — others were more inclined to take it slower — but everyone has supported the strategy”, said Clete Willems, a former Trump administration economic official now at Akin Gump, the law firm.

“Even if certain advisers do not 100 per cent agree with certain manoeuvring, they respect the decisions once they are made and do not turn around and undermine the policy,” he said.

Robert Lighthizer, the trade representative; Steven Mnuchin, Treasury secretary; and Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, have been in office since the beginning of Mr Trump’s presidency in 2017. Within the White House, Peter Navarro, the manufacturing adviser, is still in place after being appointed in the early days of Mr Trump’s tenure, while Larry Kudlow, the director of the National Economic Council, has been serving for a year and a half — essentially since the opening shots of the trade war with China.


Yet as the political and economic stakes of the China stand-off grow, the 2020 presidential election campaign approaches and concerns build about slowing growth, the ability of Mr Trump’s trade team to stick together will be put to a new test, and internal tensions could flare up again.

“The evidence that the tariff war is hurting America is increasing and the evidence that the tariff war is ineffective is increasing, so how long can they be true believers?” asked Mary Lovely, a professor of economics at Syracuse University and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

With a new round of talks starting on Thursday in Washington, Chinese officials have offered limited concessions on agriculture, but are still failing to budge on some core US concerns, such as intellectual property and industrial subsidies, despite the imposition of tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods.

Should Mr Trump cut a deal that calms markets but fails to secure any substantive changes to China’s economic policies, he would likely trigger the disappointment, and even ire, of more hawkish members of his team, like Mr Navarro and Mr Lighthizer.

A no-deal scenario with China, however, would likely inflict further economic damage on the US side, to farmers and manufacturers, and disturb the markets — which Mr Mnuchin and Mr Kudlow are loath to avoid. The pair are not always on the same page — while Mr Kudlow is said to be more open to measures restricting capital flows between the US and China, Mr Mnuchin is seen as more opposed, people close to the matter say.

While both are more reluctant than others to escalate tensions with China, they have been willing to consider more aggressive steps to pressure Beijing. In particular, the more moderate wing of the administration came around to the view that China’s commitments to reforming its economy could not be trusted after negotiations for a sweeping deal to end the trade fight with China broke down acrimoniously in May. That is when Mr Trump’s trade team fused, one person involved in the discussions said.

The views of the hawkish members of the administration are also more nuanced: they accepted watering down the ensuing tariff escalations announced by Mr Trump in August with exemptions for certain goods, and delays in their implementation. Even though Mr Lighthizer has long wanted to tear up and replace the US-China trade relationship, he is more pragmatic and less ideological than Mr Navarro, and has been uneasy with the imposition of levies on a vast range of consumer goods, due to hit on December 15, people briefed on the internal deliberations have said.

Mr Lighthizer is leading the talks with China jointly with Mr Mnuchin, and they mostly get along. “There’s mutual respect there, they give each other cover,” said one person close to the matter.

Meanwhile, Mr Navarro is no longer having public altercations with Mr Mnuchin, as he did outside a Chinese government building in Beijing in May 2018, nor clashing with Mr Kudlow in separate TV appearances over Wall Street’s influence in the negotiations, as he did in November 2018.

Concerns exist that the president may not be getting any pushback from his trade squad and that they may even encourage his erratic behaviour. Most officials remain convinced Mr Trump is waging a noble and overdue battle against China, and they are on board with the mission. Those who are more sceptical do not want to cross the president.

But people close to the discussions said the “wild west” atmosphere that used to define the trade team, particularly when Gary Cohn held Mr Kudlow’s role and opposed many of the protectionist policy ideas, has subsided. Whereas in those days the trade team was like a football team where every player wanted to be striker or captain, some are now settled on the idea of playing defence.

“They have been working on this thing for well over a year,” said Stephen Vaughn, former USTR general counsel under Mr Lighthizer, now at King & Spalding, the law firm.

“They communicate very well and don’t allow themselves to be pulled apart and they have made it impossible for the Chinese to play them off each other,” Mr Vaughn said. “And they are very loyal to the president.”

NYT : Huawei Has a Plan to Help End Its War With Trump.

Huawei Has a Plan to Help End Its War With Trump
During a rare interview, the company’s chief executive proposed negotiations with the Justice Department.

After a week of interviews in Beijing, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, I’ve come away with some strong feelings about the United States-China trade dispute. There are two battlefronts: One is the negotiation to eliminate the barriers to American companies competing in China, and the other is what to do about Huawei, China’s enormous telecom networking company that Beijing sees as a crown jewel of national innovation and the Trump team sees as a giant global espionage device.

Get to know that name — Huawei. The issues it represents are as important as all the rest of the trade talks combined.

On the pure trade battlefront, I left China feeling that there’s a decent chance a limited deal — rolling back some American tariffs in exchange for a resumption of certain Chinese purchases, particularly of agricultural products, from the United States — can be reached in the near term. Both sides could use such a deal.

I also left feeling, though, that President Xi Jinping is less likely to sign on to the kind of grand bargain, and broad concessions, that President Trump is demanding. That’s in part because Xi would get too much pushback from his state-owned industries and Communist Party hard-liners. But it’s also because months of impulsive Trump threats, tariffs, praises and then more threats have clearly led a lot of Chinese officials to conclude that Trump is an unstable character who always has to be seen to “win” and humiliate the other side, and therefore can’t be counted on for a big win-win deal — or even to stick to it if one were agreed on. Better to let the talks drag on.

Looming over all of this, though, is how to deal with Huawei, the world’s largest manufacturer of 5G networking equipment and the second-largest smartphone maker in the world, after Samsung and ahead of Apple.

Depending on whom you believe, Huawei is either a scrappy telecom that fought its way to the top since its founding in 1987 with over $100 billion in sales today, a cowboy capitalist that made its way up by stealing the technology of others, or a giant worldwide listening device for Chinese intelligence that needs to be blocked from ever installing equipment in the United States and uprooted from our allies.

Imagine China telling Apple that it can never make or sell another phone in China or in any of China’s Asian trading partners, which is the rough equivalent of what Trump has told Huawei in America. I don’t know if it is justified or not — I would need access to American intelligence — but I do know it’s worth an effort to defuse the Huawei crisis. Otherwise we’re heading for a two-technology world, with a Chinese zone and an American zone, and a digital Berlin Wall running right down the middle.

That is why I was happy to accept the invitation of Huawei’s founder and chief executive, Ren Zhengfei, to come to his company’s headquarters in Shenzhen for a rare interview, which he used to — for the first time — propose negotiations with the Justice Department to try to resolve all the outstanding issues between Washington and Huawei.

Ren told me: “If the U.S. reaches out to us in good faith and promises to change their irrational approach to Huawei, then we are open to a dialogue. The U.S. shouldn’t try to destroy Huawei over something trivial. If the U.S. feels we have done something wrong, then we can discuss it in good faith and find a reasonable solution. I think we can accept that approach."

He added for emphasis, “There are no restrictions on what we would be willing to discuss with the Department of Justice.”

And if the United States — which has no indigenous 5G networking manufacturer — still does not trust Huawei to install its equipment across America at scale, added Ren, then he is also ready, for the first time, to license the entire Huawei 5G platform to any American company that wants to manufacture it and install it and operate it, completely independent of Huawei. (The only other 5G major suppliers are Nokia and Ericsson, European companies whose products are far more expensive than Huawei’s.)

Huawei, Ren said, is “open to sharing our 5G technologies and techniques with U.S. companies, so that they can build up their own 5G industry. That would create a balanced situation between China, the U.S. and Europe.” But, he added, “the U.S. side has to accept us at some level for that to happen.” American companies “can also modify our 5G technologies to meet their security requirements.” They can even “change the software code. In that case, the U.S. will be assured of information security.”
This is clearly an olive branch, and for a reason: Huawei burst into American consciousness when Meng Wanzhou, its chief financial officer — and Ren’s daughter — was put under house arrest in December 2018 by Canadian authorities while on a trip there, after the Justice Department sought her extradition because of alleged violations by Huawei of American sanctions on Iran. She has denied the charges.

(While she has been awaiting extradition to the United States in a Vancouver mansion, though, China has detained two Canadians, in solitary accommodations and under brutal conditions, so as to force an exchange. Canada has stood with the United States and refused.)

In January, American prosecutors gained the indictment of Meng and Huawei on 23 counts, ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy to defraud the United States to stealing trade secrets. Then in May, the Department of Commerce put Huawei and 70 of its affiliates on its “Entity List,” or blacklist, which means no American company can sell them hardware, chips, software or services without special permission.

The export blacklist is to take full effect on Nov. 19, which will mean that Google, whose Android operating system sits on every Huawei phone; Microsoft, whose Windows operating system sits on every Huawei computer; and Intel, whose chips run Huawei’s 5G networks, can no longer do business with China’s biggest phone equipment company. And even foreign companies that depend on American technology are being pressured by Trump not to deploy Huawei products.

American officials believe that Huawei, in addition to violating sanctions on Iran, can install “back doors” in its equipment that Chinese intelligence can exploit, although no one has yet found any — or at least none have been publicly reported.

Which is why the Trump team is now facing challenges not only from Huawei, but also from some of the company’s biggest American suppliers, which stand to lose a huge chunk of business. Microsoft President Brad Smith told Bloomberg Businessweek on Monday that when his company presses regulators to explain their Huawei ban, “oftentimes, what we get in response is, ‘Well, if you knew what we knew, you would agree with us.’ And our answer is, ‘Great, show us what you know, so we can decide for ourselves. That’s the way this country works.’”

I have no idea who is telling the truth in this story. If Huawei really is a bad actor, let’s get the proof out there and blacklist the hell out of it. If it’s not so clear, the Trump team should at least explore Ren’s offer to see if there is a pathway for Huawei to assure American intelligence experts and demonstrate good behavior. Because Huawei is the tip of a huge iceberg.

For the first 30 years of United States-China trade, Chinese companies mostly sold us what I would call “shallow” or “surface” goods — clothes we wore on our backs, shoes we wore on our feet and electronics we put in our ears. But now that China is becoming a technological powerhouse of its own, it wants to sell us “deep technologies” — like 5G networking that gets embedded deep into our basements, bedrooms, factories and communications infrastructures.

That’s why American officials are asking: How can we let Huawei place its 5G technology in our cities and homes? Can’t it be used by China to spy on us or turn off our electricity in a war? And China asks the same about us.

Either the United States and China develop whole new frameworks of trust to manage trade in deep technologies or, as my colleague Raymond Zhong put it in this paper on July 18, going forward every purchase of telecommunications equipment will be transformed “from a business decision into a geopolitical one — a test of national allegiances to Washington or to Beijing.”

That will be a more fractured, less prosperous and less peaceful world.