BArrons : Fevertree Climbs as U.S. Growth Proves Perfect Tonic for U.K. Slowdown

Fevertree’s stock surged on Wednesday as strong growth in the U.S. proved the perfect tonic for a sales slowdown in the U.K.

The premium tonic water maker warned revenue would be lower than expected due to a slowdown in U.K. consumer spending.

However, shares climbed 13% as investors focused on encouraging signs in the U.S. — a key market for the company.

The back story. Since it was founded in 2004, Fevertree has enjoyed rapid growth in the U.K., helped by the booming popularity of gin and tonic. The company’s premium mixer drinks are now distributed to more than 70 countries, both on-trade — in hotels, restaurants and bars — and off-trade — in supermarkets and liquor stores.

In recent years Fevertree has established a footprint in the U.S. and last year it announced a distribution deal with Southern Glazer’s Wine & Spirits across 29 states.

What’s new. The premium tonic water maker warned on revenue as U.K. sales in supermarkets and off-licences fell below expectations due to a slowdown in consumer spending. Fevertree said it now expected full-year revenue of between £266 million and £268 million, down from the FactSet estimate of £272 million.

The company said its off-trade business remained the U.K. leader with 38% value share, despite more competitors. Sales in its on-trade business — which accounts for 50% of the group’s revenue — continued to perform well.

Fevertree said sales accelerated in the U.S. and Europe, key growth markets, in the second half of the year. In the U.S., the company has signed a new bottling partner on the West Coast and predicted annual growth of around 34%, ahead of previous expectations.

Chief Executive Tim Warrillow said: “Fevertree’s progress in the U.S. is particularly encouraging and the signing of a U.S. bottling partner is a further step in building our operations in this exciting market.”

Looking ahead.

Fevertree’s rapid U.K. growth was always going to moderate eventually, which the company’s trading update has now highlighted. Despite sales losing their fizz, the company is still set for 2% growth in the U.K.

The company’s early attempts to replicate its domestic success in the U.S. will be cheered by investors.

Barron's : The 3 Best Oil-Refining Stocks to Own, Goldman Sachs Says

Oil refiners are often grouped together as investments, and their stocks sometimes trade together. After all, their operations are fairly similar and their results tend to shift based on larger macro issues, such as overall gasoline consumption or the price spread between Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate.

But Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta analyzed the group and found wide variances in their prospects based on their different business models and areas of expertise.

Phillips 66 (ticker: PSX) is one of the more-diversified refiners, as it owns several kinds of assets, including a large network of gas stations. Because of its diversity and strong execution—11 straight quarterly earnings beats— Mehta thinks it even compares favorably with some major oil companies. “We argue that PSX’s track record of execution, defensive nature, returns generation, and capital allocation profile make it a compelling investment relative to Exxon Mobil (XOM),” he wrote. He rates it at Buy.

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) also owns a network of gas stations, called Speedway. Those stations could be a catalyst for the stock—not because of the money they make but because Marathon plans to spin them off, Mehta argues. “While investors we spoke with viewed the news of Marathon’s decision to spin off the Speedway business positively, we would see the completion of the proposed spin as another potential positive catalyst given current premium multiple levels for other retail assets in the market,” he wrote. He also rates the stock at Buy.

Valero (VLO) is attractive, in part, because it will benefit from a new United Nations rule forcing shipowners to buy lower-sulfur fuel oil, Mehta argues. Valero has deep expertise in processing heavy crude oil and turning it into lighter-fuel products, and should profit as demand rises for low-sulfur fuel and refining spreads change. Valero is up 22% in the past three months, but Mehta sees it rising more.

Other refiners aren’t so well off because of their dependence on buying cheap U.S. crude at a time when the spread between expensive Brent crude and cheaper U.S. crude has narrowed as the U.S. has added pipeline capacity. Producers in the Permian Basin can now get their crude to Gulf of Mexico ports, where it can be shipped overseas at higher prices. “With a reduced outlook for US production growth and infrastructure build out in the US, we forecast less favorable US crude differentials in 2020 and have Sell ratings on the most exposed stocks in our coverage including Delek Holdings (DK), CVR Energy (CVI), and HollyFrontier (HFC).”

FT : Insurers turn to wearable tech to nudge people towards healthier living

Insurers turn to wearable tech to nudge people towards healthier living
Apple Watches and Fitbits gently encourage members to engage with their own health


Tanned and with a wide grin, Wayne Gono, aged 64, may be one of the oldest people at his family business Relay Plastics — but he and his wife regularly top the employers’ leaderboard for taking the most steps. The Texan business was one of the first to embrace a programme offered by their health insurer United which uses devices such as the Apple Watch to push members into more physical activity.

“My wife and I, since we are the elders in the company, try to stay in the top five. I can say to the others, I’m one of the oldest guys here and I’m kicking your butt!” he says laughing.

As well as the satisfaction of a win over colleagues, members get cash if they meet three targets: frequency of movement — getting up and walking for small periods often; intensity — at least one burst of 3,000 steps in 30 minutes; and tenacity, completing 10,000 steps in a day. Meeting each goal helps members earn between $1 and $3.

Gono says he has earned about half his deductible back by keeping active, saving money on the amount he pays out of pocket for medical care each year. He puts the extra cash straight into a “vacation fund” for taking his kids and grandchildren on holiday.

Health insurers are turning to wearable devices including the Apple Watch and Fitbit wristbands to encourage employees to engage with their own health — long before they fall ill. They hope that by harnessing technology companies’ expertise in how to change behaviour, they will deliver daily nudges that make people healthier and — down the line — save costs.


There are challenges: from ensuring the programmes reach the least fit, not just those who were already exercising, to assuaging fears on privacy and data security, particularly when an employer is paying for the insurance.

But if overcome, such measures could solve some of the biggest problems in chronic care. Obesity — one of the many damaging results of a sedentary lifestyle — is the second-leading cause of preventable death, behind smoking, in the US. It cost the US healthcare system about $147bn in 2008, according to the Centers for Disease Control. Estimates of the cost to the entire US economy because of lost productivity range from $3.4bn to $6.4bn.

Doctors have long known that their patients need to exercise more — but it has been far easier to prescribe pills than physical activity. JoAnn Manson, chief of the preventive medicine division at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston, says exercise is “as close to a magic bullet as we’ve come in modern medicine”.

She has recommended that exercise be considered an “additional vital sign” — alongside the classic four of blood pressure, pulse, breathing rate and temperature. Doctors should ask about exercise every visit, she believes.

“I do appreciate clinicians are extremely busy in the office with a lot of demands. It is very rushed. However, this is an intervention that could ultimately reduce the risk of many of the chronic diseases that have such extreme costs, a major human burden and toll on the population,” she says.

Manson says insurers’ incentive programmes could be used to encourage more physical activity — but also that there needs to be more research on how effective they are.


United Healthcare launched its programme in January 2018. Paul Sterling, vice-president of emerging products for the company, said it was already saving about $220 per member in medical costs each year, comparing people who participate in the programme with people who don’t.

“The underlying thesis is simple. It’s not new: movement or motion as medicine,” he says. “The beauty of the programme is that it does provide a day-after-day opportunity for reinforcement and support.”

United is now looking at how to include activities such as swimming, cycling and even gardening, so that people are rewarded for all types of exercise.

Discovery, a South African health insurer and owner of Vitality, pioneered this type of effort. Francois Millard, senior vice-president and chief actuarial officer at Vitality Group, said the project was initially modelled on airline frequent-flyer programmes. The insurer realised it was “uniquely situated to benefit if our members get healthier” — so it should share the upsides with participants.


A study by research institute Rand Europe of more than 422,000 Vitality members in the UK, US and South Africa, from 2015 to 2018, found that members of the rewards programme with the Apple Watch were active for an extra five days a month. Perhaps predictably, the study found that unhealthy people were much less likely to take up a programme like this. But, importantly, it found that when they did, they did so with gusto, showing a “more pronounced behaviour change”.

Vitality used behavioural economics to design its programme. Members receive a discounted Apple Watch, but must pay the full cost if they do not meet their goals — albeit interest-free. People are more averse to losing money than to potential gains, so it is a strong nudge to change their behaviour.

The programme also borrows tricks from the tech industry that have been shown to engage users more, such as uncertain rewards. Just like a Facebook user refreshes their news feed frequently because he or she is not sure what could appear next (or a gambler gets excited for their next game), if a member meets their goals, they can spin a wheel where they might win gift cards worth anything from $5 to $25.

The obvious goal of these programmes is making members more active — and therefore healthier. But many insurers are also interested in programmes because they build a closer relationship with members, who usually just interact with them when they want a bill to be paid. This added engagement can make members feel more loyal and can give the insurer opportunities to nudge them into other healthy practices.

Oscar Health, an insurance start-up backed by venture capitalists including Google Ventures, put a step tracking function in its app to ensure members come back daily. Oscar gives its members a concierge team to answer questions and direct them to providers that offer the best value for money. It also encourages people to use telemedicine where possible.

Sara Wajnberg, chief product officer for the New York-based company, said the original intention was to offer “fun, gamified goals”, where members can earn rewards of up to $100 in Amazon gift cards a year. But it also helps them correct perceptions that insurers are just a “billing interface” into seeing them as an “entry point into the entire healthcare system”.


Oscar found that 87 per cent of members who tracked their steps engaged with the concierge team and telemedicine, compared with 57 per cent of the total membership. The company also believes it encourages members, who buy the insurance on an open marketplace rather than being offered it by an employer, to stick with them.

Aetna, the health insurance arm of US pharmacy chain CVS, is going even further, putting more healthcare services in its Attain wellness app. Using an Apple Watch, Aetna members are given personal activity goals and fed notifications including reminders to get vaccinations, refill prescriptions and visit their primary-care doctor if they have not recently. If needed, they are also nudged towards cheaper options for tests and scans.

Ben Wanamaker, head of consumer technology and services at Aetna, said the idea was to “reduce the friction” for users. He said employers recognised Aetna had these “unique capabilities” to engage members.

“They are key customers and in many cases they have shared concerns about what to do about the medical costs and the effectiveness of their employees,” he said. “You don’t have to be acutely ill to be less than your best healthwise so Attain helps people get better and be more effective at work and home.”

Aetna is now working with Apple to use machine learning to improve how it personalises the product. Members can choose to send their programme data and health history to Apple, which will use it to create new features.

Andrew Matzkin, a partner at the consultancy Health Advances, said Apple could benefit from these programmes in the short term through bulk sales of the Apple Watch — but in the longer term they could inform Apple’s own ambitions in healthcare.

He says one of the biggest questions is whether Apple wants to use its stores to create high-tech clinics — a sort of Genius Bar for the body. The company already owns AC Wellness, a small chain of clinics that serves its employees.

“You could imagine Apple saying eventually, ‘We know how to create a great consumer experience in person, in retail, and we could combine it to offer more digitally-enabled primary care’,” he says.

FT : Donald Trump considers sparing Apple from US tariffs on China

Donald Trump considers sparing Apple from US tariffs on China
US president accuses Beijing of failing to make sufficient concessions to pause trade war

Donald Trump said he may spare Apple from new US tariffs on Chinese goods if tensions escalate next month, as he accused Beijing of failing to make enough concessions to merit a deal to pause the trade war. 

On a day when US politics were dominated by the impeachment hearings on Capitol Hill, the president flew to Austin, Texas, with his daughter Ivanka and Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, to visit an Apple manufacturing plant with Tim Cook, chief executive of the technology company. 

Mr Trump was asked about the state of trade negotiations with China, which were supposed to yield what the he has described as a “phase one” agreement by the middle of November. But talks have dragged on amid more disagreements between Washington and Beijing.

The US has considered rolling back some existing tariffs in order to reach a ceasefire deal but only if Beijing is willing to offer firmer compromises on agriculture and intellectual property, according to people familiar with the matter. 

“China would much rather make a trade deal than I would,” Mr Trump said. “I haven’t wanted to do it yet because I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want.” 

Mr Trump has developed a relationship with Mr Cook throughout his presidency and signalled that he would be willing to offer some tariff exemptions from for the company. 

“When you build in the United States, you don’t have to worry about tariffs,” Mr Trump said, adding that he would “look into” a reprieve from levies for the iPhone maker. “We have to treat Apple on a somewhat similar basis as we treat Samsung,” he said. 

Samsung of South Korea is Apple’s main competitor in the smartphone business. Mr Trump suggested a US trade deal with Seoul offered Samsung an unfair competitive advantage compared to Apple because of the tariffs. The Korean company also has a large presence in Texas, including about 6,000 employees and a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Austin. 

Mr Trump called Mr Cook a “very special person” and nudged him to offer an upbeat assessment of the state of the US economy in an exchange in front of reporters. “I think we have the strongest economy in the world right now,” Mr Cook said. 

If no trade deal is reached by the middle of December and Mr Trump does not delay the levies, a further $156bn of Chinese imports — including a wide variety of consumer goods — will be hit by 15 per cent tariffs. The deadline is likely to focus the minds of US and Chinese negotiators in the coming days.

The talks have been complicated by the protests and police crackdown in Hong Kong, even though both sides have said the issues should be treated separately. The US House of Representatives passed a bill that would force the Trump administration to re-examine the city’s special trade status every year, providing a boost to protesters after the Senate approved the legislation on Tuesday.

The legislation has infuriated Beijing and has been sent to Mr Trump for his signature at an awkward time. In June, the Financial Times reported the president told Chinese leader Xi Jinping the US would tone down its criticism of Beijing’s approach to Hong Kong to revive trade talks.

If Mr Trump signs the legislation, China could be offended and balk. If he refuses in order to avoiding angering Beijing, China hawks in Washington could react furiously.

>>> US After Hours Summary: NUAN +7%, CPRT +5.3%, JACK / LB +3%, S

After Hours Summary: NUAN +7%, CPRT +5.3%, JACK / LB +3%, SONO +2% are higher, while CUB -11.5%, LZB -8.8%, NTES -1.7% are lower following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: NUAN +7%, CPRT +5.3%, JACK +3%, LB +3%, SONO +2%, DAO +1.9% (ticking higher)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: DVAX +6.3% (rebounding on light volume), TIF +3.6% (on reports of continued M&A talks with LVMH), FOSL +1.7% (EVP McKelvey bought about 67K shares worth ~$500K), BMY +1.4% (Bristol-Myers completes acquisition of Celgene - to transfer the listing of Celgene's contingent value rights related to ABRAXANE; authorized the repurchase of $7 billion of Bristol-Myers Squibb common stock), CLLS +1.3% (announces the European Patent Office has upheld a patent for a method for using CRISPR-Cas9 for gene editing in T-Cells), UBER +1.1% (CEO disclosed the purchase of ~250K shares), NGHC +0.7% (approval has been received from the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority for the previously announced sale of its Euro Accident Health and Care Insurance Sweden; estimated price $148 mln)

A few marijuana names are seeing continued strength in after hours following CNBC Fast Money mentionACB +3.8% (+13% on the day), CGC +3.3% (closed up 15% on the day), CRON +2%

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CUB -11.5%, LZB -8.8%, NTES -1.7%, INTC -0.9% (apologizes to customers/partners for product delays related to tight supplies in the PC business; reaffirms Q4 guidance)

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: OPTN -10.2% (announces proposed public offering of common stock by the company and certain selling stockholders; size not disclosed), MTEM -3.3% (commences underwritten public offering of common stock and newly designated Series A convertible preferred stock), DSSI -2.7% (announces public secondary offering of 4.7 mln common shares by selling shareholders), PYPL -1.7% (to acquire Honey Science Corporation for approx. $4 bln), SHOP -1% (still checking), AMAT -1.9%, LRCX -1.9%, KLAC -1.8% (a few chip names are indicated lower on China trade deal concerns)

>>> US CLose Dow -0.40% S&P -0.38% NAsdaq -0.51% Russell -0.42%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 declined as much as 0.9% on Wednesday after Reuters reported that a Phase One trade deal may not get completed this year. Stocks cut losses throughout the afternoon, leaving the benchmark index down 0.4% for the session -- comparable to the losses in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%), and Russell 2000 (-0.4%).

The negative-sounding headline conflicted with the optimistic tone struck by top White House officials, including Commerce Secretary Ross just last night. Also transpiring last night was the U.S. Senate passing the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, much to the contempt of China. Altogether, it seemed like a good time to take profits, especially if the Dec. 15 tariffs still go into effect. 

The trade-sensitive areas of the market like the S&P 500 materials (-1.2%), industrials (-0.8%), and information technology (-0.7%) sectors led the decline. The communication services sector (-0.8%), which contains many growth-oriented stocks, also underperformed.

Unsurprisingly, though, selling pressure quickly abated amid an opportunistic mindset among investors eagerly awaiting a dip. In addition, the details of the report were not as foreboding as the headline, and knee-jerk selling, suggested. Tucked in the report was a line indicating that some "China and trade experts" were still optimistic about a deal in the coming weeks. 

Leading the afternoon comeback was the energy sector (+1.0%), which found reprieve amid a 3% rebound in oil prices ($56.91, +1.70, +3.1%). The defensive-oriented utilities (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.2%), and real estate (+0.03%) sectors also finished in positive territory.

Shares of Target (TGT 126.43, +15.58, +14.1%) climbed 14% after the company impressed investors with its stellar results and upbeat guidance. Lowe's (LOW 117.80, +4.40, +3.9%) also beat earnings estimates and raised its FY20 EPS guidance.

U.S. Treasuries continued to benefit from a defensive mindset, which sent yields lower in a curve-flattening trade. The 2-yr yield declined two basis points to 1.57%, and the 10-yr yield declined five basis points to 1.74%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.1% to 97.91.

Separately, the release of the FOMC Minutes from the October meeting didn't draw much attention, as it was consistent with the prevailing view about monetary policy since that meeting. Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which declined 2.2% following a 9.6% increase in the prior week.

On Thursday, investors will receive the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report, the Philadelphia Fed Index for November, Existing Home Sales for October, and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for October.

  • Nasdaq Composite +28.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 +24.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +19.3% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +18.0% YTD