WSJ : Morgan Stanley Is Buying E*Trade, Betting on Littler Customers

Morgan Stanley Is Buying E*Trade, Betting on Littler Customers
Investment bank will pay $13 billion for the e-broker, doubling down on wealth management

Morgan Stanley MS 1.42% is buying E*Trade Financial Corp. ETFC 2.60% in a $13 billion deal that will reshape the storied investment bank and firmly stake its future on managing money for regular people.

The all-stock takeover, set to be announced Thursday, will combine a Wall Street firm in the late innings of a decadelong turnaround with a discount broker built on the backs of dot-com day traders. It is the biggest takeover by a giant U.S. bank since the 2008 crisis.

E*Trade ETFC 2.60% brings five million retail customers, their $360 billion in assets and an online bank with cheap deposits that Morgan Stanley can funnel into loans. Its CEO, Michael Pizzi, is coming along to run the e-brokerage business, which will keep its brand, its handful of retail storefronts and its buzzy and well-funded ad campaigns, Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman said.

E*Trade’s future has been uncertain since November, when its two main competitors, Charles Schwab Corp. and TD Ameritrade Holding Corp., announced their own merger. Schwab had thrown an elbow weeks before by cutting the trading fees it charges customers to zero. The move sent E*Trade shares tumbling and raised questions about whether the brokerage, dwarfed by a merged competitor, could survive alone.

Morgan Stanley already has 15,500 human advisers catering to millionaires and last year rolled out an online-only tool for customers with less money and less-complicated financial lives. E*Trade will slot into that wealth-management arm, which will have more than eight million users and $3.1 trillion in client money once the deal closes.

“We’ll take on Schwab. We’ll take on Fidelity,” Mr. Gorman, now in his 10th year as CEO, said in an interview. “This isn’t about legacy-building; it’s about getting [Morgan Stanley] ready for prime time.”


E*Trade became a household name in the late 1990s with its dot-com vibe and splashy Super Bowl commercials. Falling commissions have hurt its brokerage arm and low interest rates have cut into the money it makes by investing the idle cash its customers leave in their accounts.

Its crown jewel is a comparatively low-profile business: managing the stock that employees at hundreds of companies receive as part of their pay. Those shares are typically locked up for a few years and when they become available, E*Trade aims to move those employees into brokerage accounts.

Morgan Stanley has a competing business, which it expanded a year ago by acquiring Solium, a privately held specialist in the space. After buying E*Trade, Morgan Stanley would have more than 4,000 corporate customers and $580 billion of stock held on behalf of their employees who might, it hopes, one day be rich.

The takeover, code-named Project Eagle, is the largest deal by a major Wall Street player since the crisis, when regulators arranged hasty marriages in a bid to shore up the financial system. Few have been willing to test the waters in Washington since then.

That the test balloon comes from Morgan Stanley, the banking industry’s weakling during the 2008 crisis and a problem child for years afterward, is a testament to its reinvention under Mr. Gorman. The 61-year-old has cut riskier trading operations and grown steadier businesses like lending and wealth management. Revenue hit a record $41 billion last year.

“We’re strong now, and I believe you move from a position of strength,” Mr. Gorman said.

He has sounded more acquisitive in recent months and floated a trial balloon with regulators and investors by buying Solium last year for $900 million. Morgan Stanley shares have gained 40% since September, giving him a more richly valued currency to shop with.

Mr. Gorman said he has been eyeing E*Trade since 2002, when he was an executive at Merrill Lynch. He reached out again in 2007, when he was tasked with fixing Morgan Stanley’s brokerage arm, but negotiations wavered as E*Trade started to feel tremors of the coming meltdown in its portfolio of home-equity loans.

Talks this time around began in late December, when a two-hour conversation between Messrs. Gorman and Pizzi convinced both men of the deal’s merits. Mr. Gorman said the tumult kicked off by Schwab made E*Trade “more open” to a deal but said he wasn’t low-balling: The deal price of $58.74 a share, all in Morgan Stanley stock, is 34% higher than E*Trade’s price before Schwab announced its fee cut.

Morgan Stanley expects to recoup that premium through $400 million of cost cuts and additional savings of $150 million from using E*Trade’s low-cost deposits to replace more expensive funding. Mr. Gorman said he also sees an opportunity to take E*Trade international, where his firm has no wealth-management presence.

All of Wall Street is on the hunt for more reliable sources of revenue after postcrisis regulations and a long period of eerie calm in the markets crimped trading. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Bank of America Corp. are getting bigger in payments, while Morgan Stanley’s closest peer and fierce rival, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is building an online retail bank.

Mr. Gorman is proving himself to be one of the savvier corporate deal makers. He pried wealth manager Smith Barney away for a song from a weakened Citigroup Inc. in the wake of the crisis. Here he seized on the brokerage price war to nab E*Trade.

Morgan Stanley has also been scouring takeover targets in asset management, where it is smaller and nichier than peers, people familiar with the matter have said.

The E*Trade acquisition is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

WSJ : Why no one knows the source of every car part — and why it matters

Why no one knows the source of every car part — and why it matters
Brutal realisation should be heeded by politicians seeking a rash of trade deals

As factories stayed closed across China’s industrial heartland following the coronavirus outbreak, auto executives from Tokyo to Detroit scratched their heads, asking the same question: How would this hit them?

They had good reason — disruption to the supply chain is bad enough, but the average car uses thousands of parts, and who can say where they all come from? Anyone? (Jaguar Land Rover obviously knew what it needed when it flew components out of China in suitcases.) Read more about the parts problem in our lead piece. And think about it the next time you look under your car’s hood.

In today’s Tall Tales of Trade, we wonder if Beijing shares Donald Trump’s view that the US is not “a difficult place to deal with”, while our chart of the day shows how car shippers are facing some choppy waters.

Trying to keep the wheels turning
“I genuinely don’t know what the impact of the current issues are,” one senior auto executive admitted over WhatsApp in the jaws of the coronavirus crisis.

As the coronavirus outbreak spread, component makers held crisis meetings to try to determine where their parts came from, and if they could keep on supplying their auto manufacturing customers.

Fiat Chrysler admitted one of its European sites was weeks away from closing; Hyundai shut some Korean facilities, Nissan closed a Japanese site, and JCB in the UK has cut production and working hours.

The truly global nature of the automotive supply chain was laid bare.

The brutal realisation — that no one, anywhere, actually knows where every single one of the 3,000 parts that go into the average car comes from — should be heeded by politicians eyeing a rash of trade deals.

Britain is seeking to forge agreements in record time to cushion its exit from the EU, ranging from a European deal to a US agreement.

For carmakers, the heart of the deal will be a complicated calculation of where their parts come from, known in trade as the Rules of Origin.

A car plant, with its impressive array of robotic arms wielding car doors and its antlike legion of assembly workers, is actually responsible for less than 10 per cent of the value of a finished vehicle.

Almost all of it comes through the factory door, from suppliers that range from gearbox makers to dashboard manufacturers.

Working out where those parts — and where the components that went into them — come from, is, as the coronavirus has shown, incredibly difficult.

This issue was front and centre of the USMCA trade deal signed between the US, Canada and Mexico — the successor deal to Nafta — where Rules of Origin was the major sticking point. 

Even the Ford Mustang — the iconic American muscle car raced by Steve McQueen around the streets of San Francisco in Bullitt — has parts from Mexico, China and Belgium woven into its guttural eight-cylinder gasoline engine.

If Britain wants its cars to avoid tariffs after Brexit, knowing where its parts are sourced from is an important question.

A certain number of parts that go into a vehicle must be “local”, to qualify the finished vehicle for exemption from tariffs. This level typically sits at about 55 per cent.

Britain, while part of the EU, counts European parts as “local”, and thereby sails past the threshold. Once “local” means “British”, the task becomes daunting, because the supply chain has been whittled out over years of under-investment.

Several years ago, I sat down with a then-trade minister to talk about Rules of Origin. He proudly told me that 40 per cent of the Tier 1 parts used in UK plants came from Britain. What, I asked, about the Tier 2 content? A blank stare. 

“We should probably look into that,” he said, as an aide began furiously scribbling.

Since that meeting, the trade department arm tasked with rebuilding Britain’s supply chain — the Automotive Investment Organisation — has had its budget slashed.

One viable solution for the UK car industry is if European parts are counted as British under what is called “bilateral accumulation”. This would help the 50 per cent of UK car exports that go to the EU.

But it would do nothing for the 20 per cent of sales that go to nations with EU trade deals that the UK currently freely accesses, such as Mexico, Canada or Korea.

Allowing European parts to count towards those sales would involve “diagonal accumulation”, which requires the existing trade deal between the EU and Korea to be reopened and changed. This is something that the EU is unlikely to want, given that Korea may want to make other treaty changes because Britain, Europe’s second-largest car market after Germany, is no longer part of the bloc.

Charted waters
Car sales around the world were expected to see their steepest year-over-year decline in 2019 since the financial crisis as consumer demand from the US to China softened, CNBC reported towards the end of last year.

WSJ : Warren Buffett Found His ‘Elephant’ With Giant Stake in Apple

Warren Buffett Found His ‘Elephant’ With Giant Stake in Apple
Stake’s value has more than doubled to $79 billion since he began buying in 2016

Warren Buffett has lamented his failure in recent years to find an “elephant-sized acquisition.”

But, his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B 1.09% has amassed a $79 billion stake in Apple Inc. AAPL 1.45% since early 2016. Apple now accounts for about 14% of Berkshire’s market capitalization, more than any other single stock in its portfolio.

Berkshire spent about $36 billion on its Apple stake, the company said in its 2018 annual report. That exceeds the roughly $32.7 billion Berkshire paid to buy Precision Castparts Corp. in 2016, its biggest-ever acquisition.

Apple “certainly is an elephant” for Mr. Buffett, said Thomas Russo, partner at Gardner Russo & Gardner, a longtime holder of Berkshire shares.

“It shows he’s certainly willing to swing at a big fat pitch when it comes across the plate.”

Berkshire’s enormous bet on the tech giant underscores how Mr. Buffett’s investment approach has changed over the years, especially as market values have climbed and tech companies have become more prominent.

Berkshire’s stock has underperformed the S&P 500’s total return in the past decade, prompting some investors to question whether the Omaha, Neb., conglomerate has grown too big to beat the market. Even after Berkshire plowed tens of billions of dollars into buying Apple shares, its overall cash pile continued to grow and hit a record $128 billion as of Sept. 30. Some investors have agitated for Berkshire to buy back more stock or pay a dividend.

Berkshire is set to release its 2019 results and Mr. Buffett’s annual letter to shareholders Saturday. Mr. Buffett’s widely read letters typically touch on a variety of business and investing topics, in addition to discussing Berkshire’s results.

Mr. Buffett, Berkshire’s chairman and chief executive, spent his early investing years trying to buy “cigar butts,” or companies that were selling so far below their value that an investment would likely be profitable no matter how the company performed. He later transitioned to focusing on buying well-run companies with strong competitive advantages at reasonable prices.

Still, Mr. Buffett largely avoided investing in tech companies for years, saying he didn’t understand them.

Mr. Buffett started to study Apple after one of his portfolio managers, either Ted Weschler or Todd Combs, bought about $1 billion in Apple shares for Berkshire in early 2016. As he studied the company and questioned his great-grandchildren about their allegiance to Apple products, Mr. Buffett decided Apple was a retail company he could understand.


“I didn’t go into Apple because it was a tech stock,” Mr. Buffett said at Berkshire’s 2018 annual meeting. He cited the strength of the company’s brand and its capital return strategy. “I don’t think that required me to take apart an iPhone or something and figure out what all the components were or anything. I think it’s much more the nature of consumer behavior,” he said.

Mr. Buffett added to Berkshire’s Apple holdings aggressively in 2017 and 2018. Berkshire is Apple’s second-largest shareholder and held 5.6% of the company at the end of 2019, according to FactSet.

In an interview with CNBC last year, Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook said he viewed Berkshire’s investment as a privilege. “The fact that we’ve got the ultimate long-term investor in the stock is incredible,” he said.

Berkshire’s bet has paid off. Apple’s shares soared 86% in 2019 and have climbed another 10% so far this year.

“What’s surprising is how fast it increased,” said Doug Kass, president of Seabreeze Partners Management Inc. Given the current size of Berkshire’s Apple stake, “it seems to me that it would be prudent for [Mr. Buffett] to be peeling out of some stock,” he said.

Mr. Buffett has long preferred to hold a concentrated portfolio of stocks.

In his 1993 letter to shareholders, Mr. Buffett said that uninformed investors should diversify. But “if you are a know-something investor…conventional diversification makes no sense for you,” he said. “I cannot understand why an investor of that sort elects to put money into a business that is his 20th favorite rather than simply adding that money to his top choices.”

Berkshire sold a small percentage of its Apple holdings between mid-2018 and the end of 2019, according to securities filings. Those sales were made by either Mr. Weschler or Mr. Combs, who manage a fixed amount of money for Berkshire, according to a person familiar with the investments.

Some of Berkshire’s other large investments have stumbled. Berkshire owns 27% of Kraft Heinz Co., which fell 25% last year and has slid another 15% this year. Mr. Buffett said last year that Berkshire and 3G Capital overpaid in 2015 when they helped form Kraft Heinz.

Berkshire’s Class A shares rose 11% in 2019. They closed Wednesday at $344,000, up 1.3% year to date.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • STMP +30.9%, CAR +13.4%, CYH +12.4%, ZG +11.2%, XEC +7.5%, UCTT +7.3%, MANT +7%, SNN +6.8%, TRN +6.4%, MX +6%, PRDO +6%, SEDG +4.8%, KL +4.5%, KL +4.4%, SM +4.3%, IMAX +3.6%, TSLX +3.5%, TSLX +3.5%, EPAM +3.5%, RMAX +3.3%, GDOT +3.3%, LYG +3.1%, i +3%, AGI +2.9%, PXD +2.7%, LASR +2.6%, SNBR +2.5%, LKQ +2.4%, SUN +2.2%, HCC +1.9%, SYNH +1.9%, FIVN +1.7%, MASI +1.5%, OGS +1.4%, AROC +1.3%, BGS +1.2%, ALB +1.2%, AJRD +1.2%, AROC +1.2%, OIS +1.1%, AXTI +1%, FL +0.7%
  • Gapping down:
    • TVTY -38.1%, SIX -14.5%, SAM -10.9%, BTAI -10.2%, OSUR -8.7%, NVTA -8%, CPRT -7.7%, LOPE -5.8%, SPTN -4.9%, BCOV -4.5%, CDE -4%, IRT -3.7%, SNPS -3.6%, WIX -3.6%, CAKE -3.4%, TEVA -3.3%, QTWO -3.2%, HRTX -3.1%, H -3%, RETA -2.7%, VMI -2.2%, PAAS -2.2%, MD -2.2%, CONE -2.1%, CRMT -2%, PE -1.8%, JACK -1.8%, IAG -1.6%, HRL -1.5%, ICLR -1.3%, ENDP -1%

Marianne : Acculé par l'un de ses actionnaires, Lagardère appelle Nicolas Sarkoz

Acculé par l'un de ses actionnaires, Lagardère appelle Nicolas Sarkozy à la rescousse
Selon nos informations, Nicolas Sarkozy devrait rejoindre le conseil de surveillance du groupe Lagardère. Une habile manœuvre d'Arnaud Lagardère qui tente de consolider sa mainmise sur le groupe, lourdement remise en cause par le fonds activiste Amber.
Nicolas Sarkozy ne fait pas que dans la conférence rémunérée. L’ancien président joue également le rôle du joker pour des entreprises françaises cotées en délicatesse avec les fonds activistes. Déjà titulaire d’un mandat au sein du groupe Accor, dirigé par son ami Sébastien Bazin, il devrait selon nos informations rejoindre le conseil de surveillance de celui qu’il considère comme "son frère" Arnaud Lagardère. Sa nomination devrait être proposée à la prochaine Assemblée générale de mai. Contactés par Marianne, les entourages des deux hommes n’ont pas donné suite à nos sollicitations.
ÉTAT DE SIÈGE
Pour Arnaud Lagardère, il y a urgence à placer ce soutien de poids au sein de son conseil de surveillance. Depuis qu’en 2016, le fonds activiste Amber est entré au capital du groupe notamment propriétaire d’Hachette, Europe 1 et Paris Match, il règne une ambiance d'état de siège au 4 rue de Presbourg. Le fonds dirigé par Joseph Oughourlian grignote progressivement des parts du capital - il a franchi le 12 février le seuil de 10,32 % du capital et 7,73 % des droits de vote - tout en remettant continuellement en cause les choix stratégiques du groupe.
Le message est toujours le même : "Lagardère SCA sous-performe ses indices et autres acteurs comparables depuis 2003, et pour pouvoir renouer avec une dynamique de création de valeur sur le long terme qui bénéficiera à l’ensemble des parties prenantes, il est essentiel de revoir la gouvernance actuelle de Lagardère SCA et sa stratégie".
CHOIX STRATÉGIQUES DÉPLORABLES
Amber reproche concrètement à Arnaud Lagardère "l’affaire du site Doctissimo acheté 140 millions en 2008 et revendu 15 millions dix ans plus tard à TF1. Mais surtout, l’agence de marketing sportif acquise pour 865 millions d’euros en 2006 - qui a en réalité coûté 1,3 milliard - et cédée pour 110 millions, et encore avec un prêt consenti par le vendeur…", décrypte un proche du fonds.
Joseph Oughourlian milite aussi pour recentrer les activités du groupe d'une part sur les concessions de boutiques dans les aéroports et les gares (Lagardère Travel Retail), et d'autre part sur l'édition de livres grands publics (Lagardère Publishing). Ce, tout en poursuivant les ventes d’actifs dans les médias, à l'exemple d'Europe 1 "à un acquéreur comme le milliardaire tchèque Daniel Krestinsky (NDLR: propriétaire de Marianne) qui a déjà repris, à l’automne 2018, les magazine du groupe", évoquaient récemment Les Echos.
FAIRE TOMBER LA COMMANDITE
Surtout, Joseph Oughourlian compte détricoter l’architecture de la gouvernance de l’entreprise, dite de “commandite”. Celle-ci permet en effet à Arnaud Lagardère de s’assurer du contrôle du groupe éponyme avec un minimum de titres réellement en sa possession (moins de 8%), en contrepartie de quoi, il est engagé sur ses biens personnels. Ce système permet "une gouvernance aphone qui ne remplit pas sa mission de contre pouvoir", souligne Caroline Ruellan, présidente de Sonj, un cabinet de conseil en gouvernance.
Pour faire tomber la forteresse familiale, Amber compte donc "solliciter la nomination d’un ou de plusieurs nouveaux membres au conseil de surveillance de Lagardère SCA", lors de la prochaine Assemblée générale des actionnaires au printemps, comme l’indique sa déclaration d’intention à l’Autorité des marchés financiers.
SARKOZY, UN SOUTIEN DE POIDS
C’est sur ce point que l’arrivée de Nicolas Sarkozy au sein du conseil de surveillance du groupe devrait jouer en la faveur d’Arnaud Lagardère : l’actionnaire principal, le fonds souverain du Qatar (13% du capital), a jusqu’ici toujours renoncé à soutenir Amber dans ses tentatives de faire entrer de nouveaux membres au conseil de surveillance.
Or, inutile de dire que l’arrivée de Nicolas Sarkozy, dont les relations très amicales avec le Qatar ne sont un secret pour personne, renforcera le poids d’Arnaud Lagardère dans cette bataille homérique. Lors d'un fameux déjeuner à l'Elysée en 2010, l'ancien président avait déjà joué le rôle de VRP de luxe auprès des Qataris pour qu'ils montent au capital de Lagardère, révélait France Football. Cet accord constituait l'une des contreparties au soutien de la France à la candidature de l'émirat à l'organisation de la Coupe du monde 2022. En outre, l’ex-chef de l’État sait comment s’y prendre pour peser de l'intérieur dans les prises de décision des grands groupes : en partie grâce à lui, Accor avait pu rendre crédible en 2018 le très exotique plan visant à lui permettre de mettre la main sur Air France.
LE TOTEM D’IMMUNITÉ DE LAGARDÈRE
En bref, un mandat de Nicolas Sarkozy comme administrateur du groupe constituerait une sorte de totem d’immunité pour Arnaud Lagardère. Ce dernier pourra aussi profiter des nombreux relais dont dispose l’ex-président de la République au sein de l’appareil d’État. A commencer par les bonnes relations qu’il entretient avec Emmanuel Macron et certains de ses anciens ministres, tel Bruno Le Maire désormais aux Finances.
La nomination de Nicolas Sarkozy serait donc un coup "très habile", confirme un ancien visiteur du soir de l’Élysée. "Cela ne m’étonnerait pas. Arnaud Lagardère est dans une situation fort compliquée. Avoir Nicolas Sarkozy à son conseil d’administration serait une aide précieuse pour lui", ajoute un grand patron. Comme il l’avait asséné dans Le Point à la mi-janvier, Arnaud Lagardère pourrait donc garder encore longtemps sa mainmise sur l’entreprise familiale : "Je peux vous garantir que je vais rester encore plusieurs décennies à la tête de mon groupe", indiquait-il, tout sourire sur la photo.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of February 2020 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Entra Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 175 kroner
* Euronext PT Raised to 88 euros from 78 euros at Deutsche Bank
* Inditex PT Raised to 36 euros from 31 euros at Citi
* Morgan Sindall PT Raised to 2,000 pence at Peel Hunt (+)
* Puma Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 90 euros
* Puma Raised to Hold at MainFirst; PT 75 euros
* Suez Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 19 euros
* Travis Perkins Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 1,900 pence
* United Utilities Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 1,000 pence

>>> Down
* AB InBev Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 60 euros
* AB InBev ADRs Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT $65
* DWS Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 39 euros (+)
* Epiroc Cut to Sell at Pareto Securities; PT 105 kronor
* Glencore Cut to Hold at Renaissance Capital
* K+S Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse; PT 7 euros
* National Grid Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 1,075 pence
* Norma Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 37 euros
* Renault PT Cut to 20 euros from 30 euros at Citi
* Sixt Leasing Cut to Hold at M.M. Warburg; PT 18 euros (+)

>>> Initiation
* 3U Holding Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 2.40 euros
* Akasol Rated New Buy at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 60 euros
* Centamin Reinstated Outperform at BMO; PT 175 pence
* Global Fashion Group Rated New Buy at MainFirst; PT 2.50 euros
* Nexi Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 21 euros
* Swedish Match Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 700 kronor

>>> Call
* EDP Renovaveis Earnings a Beat, Prospects Look Strong, RBC Says (+)
* Gecina FY Income Beats, Guidance Slightly Lower, Analysts Say
* Hays Estimates Cut After Results on China Headwinds: Jefferies (+)
* Lloyds Results Mixed, Consensus May Come Down: Morgan Stanley (+)
* Moneysupermarket Results to Provide Some Reassurance, RBC Says (+)
* Telefonica Results ‘Mixed,’ Spain ARPU Slows: Morgan Stanley (+)
* Tenaris 4Q Misses, May Prompt Shares to Drop: Morgan Stanley
* Travis Perkins Positioned to Outperform on Market Recovery: Citi
* Renault Gets Street-Low Price Target at Citi on Cash Concerns

>>> Sarkozy Helping A.Lagardere to fight Amber Call against Sharholder Structure

"Je ne passe aucun temps à protéger Accor d’un prédateur" assure Sébastien Bazin

Le PDG du groupe Accor était invité, ce jeudi, sur le plateau de Good Morning Business. Il est notamment revenu sur le rôle de Nicolas Sarkozy au sein de son Conseil d'administration.