FT : About that ‘V-shaped’ recovery

About that ‘V-shaped’ recovery

If you pick through the recent musings of Wall Street’s wonks, whether on the economic or corporate side, you’ll find one discernible trend: analysts trying to figure out how fast we return to ‘normality’ once we emerge from our hovels.

There are various approaches to this, but they typically revolve around modelling a set of different outcomes post-pandemic and then weighing them by probability. To inform their predictions, analysts can utilise third-party data — credit card, traffic, electricity prices, etc — to figure out which industries, countries or companies are in the process of recovering. Soft data, like a survey, may also help those industries, like cruise ships, which are still in a coronavirus crunch.

Jefferies, the investment bank, has leaned towards the latter. And on Tuesday released the results of a survey of 5,500 consumers across 11 countries. The questions? Well, glad you asked:

We asked over 50 questions, covering everything from health, employment, attitudes to government policy, spending habits, personal investments, exercise and more. There are implications for most sectors, including Consumer Staples, Retail, Internet, Telecoms, Financials, Housebuilders, Healthcare and Video Games

The results are not that surprising. For instance, respondents were deluded optimistic the crisis will shake things up for the better. However, what FT Alphaville did find of note was how consumers might direct their spending once the crisis has abated.

For those hoping for a uniform V-shaped recovery, look away now:

Yes, looks like all of that pent-up demand we’ve heard so much about might take a while to filter through to the tills of the retailers, particularly those that specialise in non-essential goods. There is also clearly a return-to-work component to this, as a lot of discretionary spending is predicated on workers being in the office, where they might pass shops at lunch, or on the commute home.

But that’s not the worst news by sector, just take a look at this data for holiday bookings. Gulp:

Alphaville has been discussing, with both our colleagues and those that are unfortunate enough to be locked down with us, how the travel market might look after coronavirus. One suggestion has been that we may see a flowering of local holiday destinations — think Blackpool, Mablethorpe or Margate in the UK — if flying is perceived as too dangerous, or becomes more expensive due to a shift in the supply/ demand imbalance.

Whatever the outcome, this also spells out how unprecedented a time it is for the airlines, cruise ships and booking agents — online and offline — who have seen their businesses dismantled by the coronavirus. It seems like the pain is going to last far longer for these businesses than most have imagined.

FT : Qatar demands Premier League blocks Saudi takeover of Newcastle

Qatar demands Premier League blocks Saudi takeover of Newcastle
State broadcaster beIN demands investigation of kingdom’s alleged links to TV piracy as Gulf tensions spill into football

Qatar’s state broadcaster has demanded the English Premier League blocks the Saudi Arabia-backed takeover of Newcastle United football club because of the kingdom’s alleged involvement in television piracy, as the political tensions in the Gulf spill into the sporting arena.

The Public Investment Fund, steered by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, is providing the vast majority of funding for a £300m deal to acquire the team from British retail billionaire Mike Ashley. The transaction would make it the latest Middle Eastern investor in European football, following the Abu Dhabi-backed ownership of Manchester City and Qatar’s funding of Paris Saint-Germain.

This week beIN, the Doha-based group which is the biggest overseas television partner for English football’s top tier, has written to the league and its member clubs calling for them to further investigate the Newcastle deal.

It claims that the Saudi state is behind a pirate Arabic-language television network called beoutQ, which has been streaming content including English football matches, for which beIN has spent billions of dollars acquiring exclusive rights. Saudi Arabia has vehemently denied the allegations, but beIN has previously been supported in its claims by Premier League and Fifa, international football’s governing body.

“Not only has the potential acquirer of Newcastle United caused huge damage to your clubs and the Premier League’s commercial revenues; but the legacy of the illegal service will continue to impact you going forward,” wrote beIN Media Group chief Yousef Al-Obaidly in a letter to 20 Premier League clubs.

The Times was first to report on beIN’s letters sent to the Premier League.

The row reveals how the Premier League must navigate the rivalries between the region’s absolute monarchies, which have spent their petrodollars on sporting events and groups while also being entangled in political and economic battles. The piracy accusations are part of an ongoing dispute which erupted in 2017 when Riyadh and three Arab allies cut diplomatic and transport links to Qatar.

The Saudi takeover of Newcastle, brokered by UK financier Amanda Staveley, is being scrutinised by Premier League officials. The body can block takeovers through its “owners’ and directors’ test” — a detailed assessment of the finances and business plan of prospective buyers.

BeIN’s demand is that this test takes into account the alleged Saudi involvement in the beoutQ network. “Our request is purely based on Saudi Arabia’s past and present theft of your and your member clubs’ intellectual property rights,” wrote Mr Al-Obaidly in a separate letter to the Premier League chief executive Richard Masters.

In 2017, following disquiet over the backgrounds of new club owners, the Premier League tightened its rules to bar potential owners if they had committed an act in a foreign jurisdiction that would be considered a criminal offence in the UK, even if not illegal in their home territory. 

Activists, such as Amnesty International, have applied pressure by describing the Newcastle takeover as an attempt to “sportswash” the country’s poor human rights record. Similar accusations have been levelled against other Middle Eastern owners of football clubs, including Qatar.

The Premier League declined to comment.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of April 2020 - V2(+)

>>> Up
* Ahold Delhaize Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 25.50 euros
* Geberit Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 465 Swiss francs (+)
* Kesko Oyj Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 54.50 euros
* On The Beach Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 345 pence
* OneSavings Bank Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 275 pence (+)
* Sartorius PT Raised to 300 euros at Bankhaus Metzler
* Sartorius PT Raised to 300 euros from 235 euros at M.M. Warburg (+)
* Tele2 Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets; PT 138 kronor (+)


>>> Down
* Avanza Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 108 kronor
* Bilot Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 6.90 euros (+)
* Carrefour Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 14 euros
* Centrica Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 29 pence
* CGG Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 1.13 euros
* Credit Suisse Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Culti Milano Cut to Neutral at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 4.12 euros
* DFDS Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 160 kroner
* G4S PT Cut to 85 pence from 140 pence at Deutsche Bank
* Grifols ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $21
* Grifols Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 20 euros
* Intrum Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 152 kronor
* Lagardere Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 17.20 euros (+)
* Maersk Drilling Cut to Hold at Danske Bank Markets (+)
* Metro Bank Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 100 pence (+)
* Netcompany Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 370 kroner
* Netcompany Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 251 kroner
* Petrofac Cut to Sell at SocGen; PT 124 pence
* Philips Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 39 euros (+)
* Remedy Entertainment Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 20 euros (+)
* Sage Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 500 pence
* SAP ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $117
* SBM Offshore Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 12.26 euros
* SCA Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 105 kronor
* Schibsted Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 234 kroner
* Signature Aviation Cut to Neutral at Citi
* Sogefi Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (ESN) (+)
* Somfy Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 80 euros (+)
* Suedzucker Cut to Hold at Commerzbank; PT 15 euros (+)
* TechnipFMC Cut to Hold at SocGen
* Yara Cut to Neutral at Citi

>>> Initiation


>>> Call
* Adidas Investors Too Optimistic, Recovery Will Take Longer: MS
* Centrica Facing ‘Material Headwinds,’ Jefferies Cuts to Hold
* Danske Won’t Shelve C-Suite Bonus Plan Despite Crisis, JP Says (+)
* Kering Double Downgraded by BofA on ‘Cracks in the Gucci Story’ (+)
* Roche Confirms Resilience, Reassures With Guidance: Goldman (+)
* Telia 1Q Call May Focus on Content Strategy, Costs, Citi Says (+)
* Yara 1Q Seen Strong, But Risks Building Up Beyond This: Citi

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Heineken (HNK1 TH) +3.2%
    • Heineken Warns Weaker Emerging Market Currencies to Erode Profit
    • Heineken First Quarter Org. Beer Volume -2.1%, Est. -2.8%
  • Telefonica (TNE5 TH) +2.9%
  • BAT (BMT TH) +2.5%
  • AMS (DQW1 TH) +2.2%
  • BHP Group PLC (BIL TH) +2.1%
    • Shares fell 6.4% yesterday
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) +2.1%
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1.9%
  • ING (INN1 TH) +1.9%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -0.9%
  • Kering (PPX TH) -1.4%
    • Gucci Owner Kering Urges Caution on China Luxury Rebound
  • Aker BP (ARC TH) -1.5%
    • Shares fell 3.5% yesterday

NYT : 25,000 Missing Deaths:Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis


See PDF Attached for all charts

25,000 Missing Deaths:
Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis

At least 25,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic over the last month than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 11 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.
In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.
Where we found higher deaths than normal
AREA PCT. ABOVE NORMAL EXCESS DEATHS − REPORTED COVID-19 DEATHS = DIFFERENCE
Spain
Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 		66% 19,700 − 12,401 = 7,300
England & Wales
Mar. 7 - Apr. 10 		33% 16,700 − 10,335 = 6,300
New York City
Mar. 11 - Apr. 18 		298% 17,200 − 13,240 = 4,000
France
Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 		21% 10,500 − 8,059 = 2,500
Netherlands
Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 		33% 4,000 − 2,166 = 1,900
Istanbul
Mar. 9 - Apr. 12 		29% 2,100 − 1,006 = 1,100
Jakarta
March 		36% 1,000 − 84 = 900
Belgium
Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 		25% 2,300 − 1,632 = 700
Switzerland
Mar. 9 - Apr. 5 		21% 1,000 − 712 = 300
Sweden
Mar. 9 - Apr. 12 		12% 1,100 − 1,160 = -50
Note: Excess deaths are estimates that include deaths from Covid-19 and other causes. Reported Covid-19 deaths reflect official coronavirus deaths during the period when mortality data is available. In England and Wales, the Covid-19 deaths reflect the revised death figures from the Office of National Statistics. Istanbul reported deaths include those for all of Turkey, as city-level data has not been made public.
These numbers undermine the notion that many people who have died from the virus may soon have died anyway. In Paris, more than twice the usual number of people have died each day, far more than the peak of a bad flu season. In New York City, the number is now four times the normal amount.
Of course, mortality data in the middle of a pandemic is not perfect. The disparities between the official death counts and the total rise in deaths most likely reflect limited testing for the virus, rather than intentional undercounting. Officially, about 165,000 people have died worldwide of the coronavirus as of Tuesday.
But the total death numbers offer a more complete portrait of the pandemic, experts say, especially because most countries report only those Covid-19 deaths that occur in hospitals.
“Whatever number is reported on a given day is going to be a gross underestimate,” said Tim Riffe, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. “In a lot of places the pandemic has been going on for long enough that there has been sufficient time for late death registrations to come in, giving us a more accurate picture of what the mortality really was.”
The differences are particularly stark in countries that have been slow to acknowledge the scope of the problem. Istanbul, for example, recorded about 2,100 more deaths than expected from March 9 through April 12 — roughly double the number of coronavirus deaths the government reported for the entire country in that period.

The increase in deaths in mid-March suggests that many people who died had been infected in February, weeks before Turkey officially acknowledged its first case.
In March, the Indonesian government attributed 84 deaths to the coronavirus in Jakarta. But over 1,000 people more than normal were buried in Jakarta cemeteries that month, according to data from the city’s Department of Parks and Cemeteries. (The data was first reported by Reuters).

We estimated the excess mortality for each country by comparing the number of people who died from all causes this year with the historical average during the same period. The Economist is also tracking these deaths, known as excess deaths, in this way.
In many European countries, recent data show 20 to 30 percent more people have been dying than normal. That translates to tens of thousands of more deaths.

In some countries, the authorities are trying to clarify how many excess deaths should be attributed to Covid-19, either by including deaths outside hospitals in their daily totals or by retroactively adjusting death tolls once death certificates are processed.
In France, officials began including Covid-19 deaths outside hospitals in early April. And Britain’s Office for National Statistics has started to release mortality data that reflects when Covid-19 is mentioned on a death certificate, providing a more accurate — albeit delayed — account of the pandemic than the figures released each day by Public Health England.
Deviations from normal patterns of deaths have been confirmed in many European countries, according to data released by the European Mortality Monitoring Project, a research group that collects weekly mortality data from 24 European countries.

It is unusual for mortality data to be released so quickly, demographers say, but many countries are working to provide more comprehensive and timely information because of the urgency of the coronavirus outbreak. The data is limited and, if anything, excess deaths are underestimated because not all deaths have been reported.
“At this stage, it’s a partial snapshot,” said Patrick Gerland, a demographer at the United Nations. “It’s one view of the problem that reflects that most acute side of the situation, primarily through the hospital-based system.”
That is likely to change.
“In the next couple of months,” Mr. Gerland said, “a much clearer picture will be possible.”
Age breakdowns in mortality data could provide an even clearer picture of the role of Covid-19 in excess deaths. In Sweden, for example, a high mortality rate among men age 80 and older accounted for the largest increase in deaths, suggesting that the overall numbers understate the severity of the outbreak for older people in particular.
Even taking into account the new numbers, experts say the death toll to date could have been much worse.
“Today’s rise in all-cause mortality takes place under conditions of extraordinary measures, such as social distancing, lockdowns, closed borders and increased medical care, at least some which have positive impacts,” said Vladimir Shkolnikov, a demographer at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. “It is likely that without these measures, the current death toll would be even higher.”

>>> what to look at today - 22nd of April 2020

Most Asian stocks retreated on low volumes after a risk-off session on Wall Street, with investors monitoring continued volatility in energy markets and further signs that companies are finding it hard to provide outlooks. Oil in London tumbled to the lowest in more than 18 years.
Shares fell from Sydney to Hong Kong though declines were shallower than those in the U.S. on Tuesday. Equities in Shanghai slipped, while European stock futures advanced. S&P 500 contracts were little changed after the gauge closed down more than 3%, with investors shrugging off a deal reached by the White House and congressional leaders on fresh spending to combat the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Brent crude oil prices tumbled as the global benchmark was sucked into the rout that sent U.S. futures below zero for the first time ever this week. The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasuries was steady after dropping below 0.6%.
US After HOurs SNAP +20.1% and CMG +6.5% up big on earnings; IBKR -5.2% weak on earnings

Nikkei -1.09% Hang Seng -0.09% CSI +0.49% Shanghai +0.34% Shenzen +0.58%

Eur$ 1.0854 CNH 7.0969 CNY 7.0849 JPY 107.60 GBP 1.23 CHF 0.97 RUB 77.5413 TRY 6.9882 WTI June 10.89 -6% WIT July 18.44

S&P +0.69% NAsdaq +0.75% EuroStoxx +0.84% FTSEE +0.78% Dax +0.82% SMI +0.44%

Macro :
- Citi Says Bear Market Not Over With More Earnings Pain to Come
- BofA Says S&P 500 to Hit Fresh Lows If Volatility Pattern Holds
- ECB May Discuss Junk Debt Collateral in Call on Wednesday
- Conte Softens Italy’s Red Lines Over European Virus Aid Plan

Keep an eye on :
- AED BB : Aedifica Sees No Material Changes to FY EPRA EPS Forecast
- AKZA NA : Akzo Nobel First Quarter Adj. Oper Income EU214 Mln
- ASM NA : ASMI First Quarter Orders EU333.5 Mln, -22% Q/q
- ATEA NO : Atea First Quarter Revenue NOK9.04 Bln, -0.6% Y/y
- ATO FP : Atos Cuts 2020 Organic Rev. View To -2% to -4% From About +2%
- CS FP : French Insurers to Invest EU150M in Tourism Industry: FFA
- AXFO SS : Axfood Maintains Full Year Capex SEK900 Mln to SEK1.00 Bln
- BAR BB : Barco First Quarter Orders EU253.7 Mln, -5.7% Y/y
- BFIT NA : Basic-Fit First Quarter Revenue EU137.5 Mln
- CBK GY : Glass Lewis Recommends Vote Against Mgmt Pay at Commerzbank AGM
- EDF FP : EDF Rivals Say Commercial Court Can Rule on Force Majeure Demand
- ELISA FH : Elisa Oyj 1Q Revenue EU468 Mln, +6.4% Y/y, Est. EU451.9 Mln
- ERICB SS : Ericsson First Quarter Net Sales SEK49.8 Bln, Est. SEK51.94 Bln
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Says Pandemic May Set Back European 5G Rollouts
- FGR FP : Eiffage’s APRR 1Q Rev. Ex. Construction Falls 5.8% to EU567.3m
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler Plans to Restart Some Italy Ops from April 27
- GEST SM : Gestamp Won’t Pay July Complementary Dividend Due to Pandemic
- GIMB BB : Gimv Sees ~10% Neg. Impact from Virus, Liquidity at ~EU370m
- GJF NO : Gjensidige First Quarter Pretax Loss NOK497.0 Mln
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re Prelim First Quarter Net Income About EU300 Mln
- IIA AV : Immofinanz 2019 FFO I Gains to EU137.4 Mln; Dividend Planned
- IFCN SW : Inficon First Quarter Net Income $11.4 Mln, -11% Y/y
- IPN FP : Ipsen First Quarter Sales At Constant Exchange Rates +8.7%
- KER FP : Kering's Gucci Recovery in China in April Is a 2Q Soother: React
- KER FP : Kering’s 1Q Suggests Brand-Specific Slowdown at Gucci: Bernstein
- MMB FP : Vivendi Buys 10.6% of Groupe Lagardère
- MCAP SS : Medcap Doubles Share Offering Size, Guidance at SEK170: Terms
- NESN SW : Nestle Getting Additional Questions on Allergan/Abbvie: CTFN
- NOVN SW : Novartis Says Kymriah Gets FDA Advanced Therapy Designation
- PNDXB SS : Pandox Is ‘In Big Trouble’ Without Bank Support, CEO Says: DI
- PARG SW ; Pargesa Board Recommends Acceptance of Parjointco Offer
- PFV GY : Pfeiffer Vacuum First Quarter Ebit EU12.8 Mln, -29% Y/y
- RAND NA : Randstad First Quarter Organic Revenue -7.40%
- ROG SW : Roche First Quarter Sales CHF15.14 Bln, Est. CHF14.83 Bln
- SCHP SW : Schindler First Quarter Revenue CHF2.45 Bln, Est. CHF2.36 Bln
- SCR FP : Scor: Global P&C Renewal Gross Premiums +5.7% Ex-FX on April 1
- SO FP : Somfy 1Q Revenue Rise 2.9%; Sees March Decline Continuing in 2Q
- STM FP : STMicro Sees 2Q Net Rev. $2b vs $2.23b in 1Q, Cuts FY Div., Sees Declining Demand for Automotive Chips Next Quarter
- SHBA SS : Svenska Handelsbanken First Quarter Net Income SEK3.94 Bln (1)
- TLX GY : Talanx Withdraws 2020 Profit Outlook; Confirms Dividend Plan
- TEL NO : Telenor Grameenphone 1Q Rev NOK4.06b vs NOK3.57b Year Ago
- TELIA SS : Telia First Quarter Net Income SEK1.11 Bln, -38% Y/y
- 8TRA GY : Traton: 1Q Industrial Business Net Cash Flow Negative ~EU170m
- UCG IM : UniCredit to Take Additional EU900M Loan Loss Provisions in 1Q
- VGP BB : VGP Offering Prices EU200m Shares at EU100/Share
- VIV FP : Vivendi Buys 10.6% of Groupe Lagardère
- VOW3 GY : JD.com Teams Up With SAIC Volkswagen on Smart Vehicle Services

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of April 2020

>>> Up
* Ahold Delhaize Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 25.50 euros
* Kesko Oyj Raised to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 54.50 euros
* On The Beach Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 345 pence
* Sartorius PT Raised to 300 euros at Bankhaus Metzler


>>> Down
* Avanza Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 108 kronor
* Carrefour Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 14 euros
* Centrica Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 29 pence
* CGG Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 1.13 euros
* Credit Suisse Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Culti Milano Cut to Neutral at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 4.12 euros
* DFDS Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 160 kroner
* G4S PT Cut to 85 pence from 140 pence at Deutsche Bank
* Grifols ADRs Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $21
* Grifols Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 20 euros
* Intrum Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 152 kronor
* Netcompany Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 370 kroner
* Netcompany Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 251 kroner
* Petrofac Cut to Sell at SocGen; PT 124 pence
* Sage Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 500 pence
* SAP ADRs Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT $117
* SBM Offshore Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 12.26 euros
* SCA Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 105 kronor
* Schibsted Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 234 kroner
* Signature Aviation Cut to Neutral at Citi
* TechnipFMC Cut to Hold at SocGen
* Yara Cut to Neutral at Citi

>>> Initiation


>>> Call
* Adidas Investors Too Optimistic, Recovery Will Take Longer: MS
* Centrica Facing ‘Material Headwinds,’ Jefferies Cuts to Hold
* Yara 1Q Seen Strong, But Risks Building Up Beyond This: Citi