>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of September 2020

>>> Up
* AB Foods Raised to Add at Investec; PT 2,070 pence
* Arrow Global Raised to Reduce at Peel Hunt; PT 87 pence
* Aryzta Raised to Hold at Bank Vontobel; PT 0.80 Swiss francs
* Bakkavor Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 72 pence
* Barratt Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 590 pence
* Equinor Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 175 kroner
* Essentra Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 360 pence
* Fuchs Petrolub Raised to Buy at Commerzbank; PT 48 euros
* Gecina Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 142 euros
* Rolls-Royce Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 270 pence
* Royal Mail Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 253.10 pence
* Team17 Raised to Buy at Panmure Gordon; PT 760 pence
* Travis Perkins Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,439 pence
* Ubisoft Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 86 euros

>>> Down
* Aurubis Cut to Underperform at Exane; PT 52 euros
* Demire Real Estate Cut to Reduce at Baader Helvea
* DS Smith Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 330 pence
* FinecoBank Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 13.40 euros
* Stemmer Imaging Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 21.80 euros
* Vinci Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 87 euros

>>> Initiation
* Avast Rated New Neutral at Citi; PT 550 pence
* Central Asia Metals Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 225 pence
* Deutsche Konsum REIT-AG Rated New Hold at Jefferies
* Evotec SE Rated New Buy at FMR Frankfurt Main; PT 29 euros
* Hamborner REIT Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 10.50 euros
* Kemira Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 13.80 euros
* SOITEC Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 145 euros

>>> Call
* Fuchs Petrolub May Profit From China, EV Demand: Commerzbank
* Kemira Margin Transformation Not Visible in Valuation: Berenberg
* Equinor Well Placed for Energy Transition; RBC Ups to Outperform
* Rolls-Royce Stock Pricing-In Zero Recovery Potential: Berenberg
* Siemens Energy Offers Clear Value Creation Story: Deutsche Bank
* Tod’s PT, Estimates Cut at Citi on Shoemaker’s Bleak Prospects
* Travis Perkins a Buy on Toolstation’s Potential, Jefferies Says

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-MArket Indications

  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +2.9%
    • Rolls-Royce Stock Pricing-In Zero Recovery Potential: Berenberg
  • Vodafone (VODI TH) +2.1%
  • Glaxo (GS7 TH) +1.7%
  • Fuchs Petrolub (FPE3 TH) +1.5%
    • Fuchs Petrolub May Profit From China, EV Demand: Commerzbank
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +0.8%
    • ChemChina, BP, Trafigura Book Oil Tankers as Freight Rates Slide
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) +0.6%
    • Court Rejects Salt’s Request for Ex Parte Injunction vsSunrise
  • HelloFresh (HFG TH) -1%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -1.1%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) -1.2%
  • Lanxess (LXS TH) -1.3%
  • Rational (RAA TH) -1.3%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -1.4%
  • Total SE (TOTB TH) -1.6%
  • Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) -7.2%
    • Knorr-Bremse Offering by Holder Prices 10m Shares at EU100/Share

>>> TradeGate Pre-MArket Indications

DAX:
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +0.5%
    • Bayer Extends CEO’s Contract, Sees Progress on Roundup Deals (1)
  • SAP (SAP TH) +0.2%
    • Watch European Software Stocks After Oracle Sales Beat Estimates
  • Adidas (ADS TH) -0.6%
    • Kanye West Calls Out Gap and Adidas Over Black Board Seats (1)
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) -0.9%
MDAX:
  • Fuchs Petrolub (FPE3 TH) +1.9%
    • Fuchs Petrolub May Profit From China, EV Demand: Commerzbank
  • Siemens Healthineers (SHL TH) +1.5%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +1.1%
    • Frankfurt Airport Aug. Passengers -78.2% on Year (Table)
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) +0.7%
    • Court Rejects Salt’s Request for Ex Parte Injunction vsSunrise
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.4%
    • Lufthansa to Shed Biggest Planes in Deepening Fleet Shakeup
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) -0.4%
    • Commerzbank Mulls Reviving its Mittelstandsbank: Boersen-Zeitung
SDAX:
  • Deutsche Euroshop (DEQ TH) +1.4%
  • Dermapharm (DMP TH) +1.4%
  • DWS (DWS TH) +1.3%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) -0.7%

WSJ : Elon Musk’s Payday Could Cost Tesla Shareholders Dearly

Elon Musk’s Payday Could Cost Tesla Shareholders Dearly
The accounting effect of options awards for Tesla’s CEO could push it into a loss and disqualify the company from S&P 500 index inclusion for a long time

Thanks to Tesla’s TSLA +5.25% meteoric share-price rise, Elon Musk is set to cash in on a huge bonus package. Shareholders counting on their own tidy fortunes should know how Mr. Musk’s payday might dent their prospects. The inclusion of Tesla in the benchmark S&P 500 index could face a further major delay because of the accounting impact.

In 2018, Tesla awarded Mr. Musk a pay package which includes stock options for more than 20 million shares that vest in 12 tranches, based on a combination of operational and market-value milestones. On a postsplit basis, those options can convert into 100 million shares. The first such tranche paid out in May as Tesla reached and sustained $100 billion in market value, according to a securities filing. The company awarded Mr. Musk shares worth nearly $800 million at the time. Tesla stock has doubled since then, and it is highly likely that other tranches will vest this quarter, which would net Mr. Musk billions more.

However Tesla decides to treat that in its pro forma results, those option grants need to be expensed according to generally accepted accounting principles. That is the standard the index-inclusion committee uses.

Tesla had recognized some of these expenses ahead of time as the milestones came into sight. For instance, the company recorded an expense of $72 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Tesla recorded $347 million in stock-based compensation expense in the most recent quarter, which was an increase from past periods but still low enough for the company to churn out a profit according to GAAP.

Tesla said in February that “the achievement of a market capitalization milestone earlier than expected may accelerate the rate” at which compensation expense is recognized. Any expenses not already booked are recognized as a tranche vests, the filing says. Back then, Tesla’s market value was $145 billion. As of Thursday, its market value was around $350 billion, having reached as high as $463 billion in August.

That new expense threatens to put Tesla’s streak of four consecutive quarters of GAAP profits in jeopardy. Over those four quarters, Tesla has averaged quarterly net profit of about $70 million.

The fresh costs won’t affect Tesla’s cash balance, which was further boosted by $5 billion following last week’s capital increase. But they could harm Tesla’s chances of index inclusion, which was widely anticipated but failed to materialize last week. While the selection committee could opt to include a new company at any time and make exceptions to its rules, the rules call for a GAAP profit in the most recent quarter and cumulative profitability over the previous four. A third-quarter net loss of just $226 million would put Tesla in the red over the past four quarters. Given the size of the options awards and the recent gains in Tesla’s share price, a billion-dollar quarterly compensation expense is within the realm of possibility.

That presents a big risk for shareholders. Tesla stock fell 20% in the first trading session after the committee rebalanced the index without including Tesla. They probably would fall more if people think that index inclusion faces more than a speed bump. If it causes a serious delay, Mr. Musk’s recent payout will quite literally come at other shareholders’ expense.

WSJ : Fiat Chrysler Looks to Maserati to Jump-Start Stalled European Business

Fiat Chrysler Looks to Maserati to Jump-Start Stalled European Business
Italian-American firm unveils luxury sports car, storied brand’s first new vehicle for four years

MODENA, Italy— Fiat Chrysler FCAU +3.75% Automobile NV’s years of struggles in Europe faded for an evening as its Maserati brand lavishly unveiled a new luxury sports car it hopes will reinvigorate the unprofitable marque.

Booming music, strobe lights and video clips recalling Maserati’s illustrious racing past met hundreds of socially distanced, mask-wearing observers gathered Wednesday to get a first peek at the MC20. The brand’s first new car for four years can accelerate to 60 miles per hour in less than 3 seconds and has a top speed of 200 miles an hour.

As the consummation of Fiat Chrysler’s merger with Peugeot PUGOY 4.12% owner PSA Group approaches, the Italian-American car maker is again trying to revive the fortunes of Maserati. The brand sold just 19,300 cars in 2019—down by almost two-thirds in two years—and coronavirus lockdowns contributed to a further 50% drop in first-half sales this year.

A new five-year target calls for Maserati to achieve an operating profit margin of 15% on sales of 75,000 vehicles.

Fiat Chrysler’s European business, which also includes the struggling Alfa Romeo and Fiat brands, has long strained to make a profit, with the group’s finances depending in recent years on strong sales of Jeep sport-utility vehicles and Ram trucks. Once the PSA merger is finalized by the end of March, the combined company is expected to cut costs, putting more pressure on the Italian brands.


While Fiat Chrysler has barely broken even in Europe in good years, PSA has been on an upward trajectory since Chief Executive Carlos Tavares took the wheel in 2014. The French company sells almost 90% of its vehicles in Europe—typically a tough market for mass-market car makers—and is a rarity among the region’s auto makers in having turned a profit in the first half of this year despite the pandemic.

Mr. Tavares, who will be CEO of the combined group, has consolidated his credentials as a turnaround specialist, stoking optimism that he can help revive the likes of Maserati, Alfa Romeo and Fiat. He engineered PSA’s 2017 acquisition of Opel, General Motors Co. ’s European arm that had been losing money for two decades, and rapidly made it profitable. PSA’s sustained period of profitability in Europe under the Portuguese executive, is something that longtime Fiat Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne never pulled off.

Fiat has grappled with overcapacity in Italy for decades, with some factories making use of government-funded furlough programs even before the coronavirus hit. The company had its European factories working at about 50% capacity last year, well below the average in Europe, according to LMC Automotive, a research firm.

Following failed attempts to close factories in Italy amid political and union resistance, Mr. Marchionne tried to solve the overcapacity issue by turning Italy into a production hub for Fiat Chrysler’s premium brands. But that plan never took off, partly because Alfa Romeo and Maserati sputtered. Alfa Romeo vehicle sales have been in the doldrums for years and fell almost 40% in the two years to 2019. The brand took another hit this year because of the pandemic.

Mr. Marchionne skimped on research and development spending for the European brands for years, analysts say, prioritizing aggressive debt and profitability targets. As a result, Maserati, Alfa Romeo and Fiat had fewer new models to offer customers, notably missing out on the rise of sport-utility vehicles. Maserati and Alfa Romeo are now promising several new SUVs.

“Fiat’s biggest problem in Europe is a very elderly product range,” said Bernstein analyst Arndt Ellinghorst. “Marchionne starved the business of money as he couldn’t see a way to justify investment.” While that made sense at the time, the strategy is now catching up with the company and its new leadership, Mr. Ellinghorst said.

Mr. Marchionne died in 2018, and his successor as CEO, Mike Manley, said Thursday he would unveil his new role at the merged company later this year.

While volumes of Maserati’s new MC20 are expected to be low—the super-car segment sells only about 20,000 vehicles a year globally—executives hope the car will increase the brand’s credentials in the luxury-car market, thanks to its newly designed 630-horsepower engine and extensive use of carbon fiber.

Initially available only with a traditional engine—an electric option is planned—the car has a starting price of about $200,000, putting it within range of an entry-level Ferrari or Lamborghini.

“The MC20 is a message showing what Maserati is capable of,” said Fiat Chrysler Chairman John Elkann following the presentation. “I like the car very much. I ordered two.”

(Oscar Gruss) TIF-MC FP (LVMH) – OG Risk Arb comments on the litigation rega

TIF-MC FP (LVMH) – OG Risk Arb comments on the litigation regarding TIF

 

TIF-LVMH — OG Risk Arb comments on (a) LMVH’s Sept 9 PR which refers to a letter from the French government which LVMH claims means that as it stands LVMH is not in a position to close, (b) litigation filed in Delaware by TIF on 9/9 seeking specific performance/declaratory judgment (i) of LVMH’s RBE obligations regarding antitrust, (ii) of LVMH obligation to close, and (iii) preventing LVMH from terminating the deal after the 11/24 Outside date (or in the alternative awarding damages), and (c) LVMH PR on 9/10 announcing that it was surprised by TIF’s lawsuit, it will file EU shortly and it expects approval in October, and it will file suit against TIF claiming (i) a MAC and (ii) an ordinary course violation based primarily on TIF paying substantial dividends when the company was loss making.

(following on the attachment)

 

 

FT : Dufry/airport retail: hard case

Dufry/airport retail: hard case
The duty free operator’s promise of a bargain offers little reason for good cheer

The promise of a bargain lures travellers to duty-free shopping. Dufry presented a similar offer to shareholders with terms of a SFr500m rights issue on Thursday, its second this year. The world’s largest duty free operator will raise new equity partly to repurchase and delist US subsidiary Hudson. The buyback presages belt tightening. A cannily priced deal is scant reason for optimism. 

Dufry has lost altitude in parallel with airline groups. The first full-year operating loss since 2003 is expected. The stock is down 70 per cent since the start of the year. High gearing helps explain the dramatic fall — net debt was almost four times ebitda in December.

Liquidity is not an immediate concern. But with a recovery that will be measured in years, significant debts heighten risk painfully.

The Swiss group already consolidates the results of Hudson, in which it has a majority stake. The repurchase makes opportunistic good sense on paper: Hudson’s IPO in 2018 raised SFr671m, net of costs, and Dufry will spend about SFr300m to buy the stake back

Buyout group Advent is meanwhile prepared to invest SFr415m in Dufry at a price of SFr28.5. This could result in dilution of up to one-third for existing shareholders, depending on how the rights issue is priced.

The SFr1bn of cost cuts targeted by Dufry this year illustrates the challenge ahead. The bulk of savings will come from renegotiating revenue-sensitive contracts with airports.

For airport retailers, sales are a function of both the mix and number of passengers. Footfall is unlikely to recover before 2023. British Airways owner IAG has just downgraded its 2021 capacity estimates to 27 per cent below 2019 levels. A slower recovery in international flights means fewer high spending passengers from emerging markets.

Restrictions on customers per store could reduce revenues by up to half, thinks Barclays. Curbs would probably continue after passenger numbers recover. That suggests airport retailers, such as Dufry and SSP of the UK, face an outlook even worse than the airlines whose slipstream once pulled them along.

FT : Stanley Druckenmiller is a trading genius, and that’s why we should stop li

Stanley Druckenmiller is a trading genius, and that’s why we should stop listening to him

In mid-1999, Stanley Druckenmiller found himself in a bind.
Soros’s number two at the Hungarian’s famous Quantum Fund believed the US stock market was in full-on bubble territory. Naturally, he was short tech to the tune of $200m. Druckenmiller was right; valuations were silly. The problem was, however, that the market kept going up. By May, the fund was down 18 per cent for the year.
So instead of blaming the Fed, his luck or retail traders, Druckenmiller did what any good trader does and decided to stop fighting the tape. The Quantum Fund reversed course and went neck-deep long tech, finishing the year up 35 per cent.

Retold by Michael Batnick in his excellent book Big Mistakes, this tale provides a key insight into the trading process of a man, who by some accounts, compounded capital at a mind boggling 30 per cent plus a year for 30 years.
Strong convictions held lightly is a theme that’s repeated itself over his illustrious career. In May 2016, Druckenmiller told investors at the Ira Sohn conference that the “bull market was exhausted” and recommended they ditch stocks and go long gold. The S&P 500 ended up outperforming the pet rock that year, prompting him to joke about his failed trade at the same conference in 2017. By that summer, his family office — Duquesne Capital — was all in on Chinese tech despite flagging structural issues with the country’s banking system a year before. And so on.
Which brings us neatly to a widely reported story from Wednesday, via Bloomberg:
The markets are in a “raging mania” and rising inflation is a big threat, investor Stan Druckenmiller said.
Inflation could hit 5% to 10% in the next four to five years, Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a CNBC interview, adding that the Federal Reserve has created conditions that have sent valuations soaring. Deflation is also a risk, he said.
“Everyone loves a party but inevitably after a big party there is a hangover,” he said. “We are in a raging mania.”
The issue here isn’t so much what Druckenmiller said — he could yet be right or wrong — but the fact it’s presented without the context that he may have woken up this morning and thought the exact opposite.
So perhaps when it comes to forecasts from Stan, and other famous traders, we should remember linguist Roman Jakobson’s quip during the debate as to whether to appoint Vladimir Nabokov as a professor in Harvard’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences back in 1957:
Gentlemen, even if one allows that he is an important writer, are we next to invite an elephant to be Professor of Zoology?