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JPM Comment :

JPM on CSG – note dated 5 May 2026 (David Perry)

1. Rating reiterated Overweight, PT €40 unchanged (vs share price €15.9 after Monday’s -13%) — JPM explicitly defends the thesis despite the Hunterbrook short report.

2. Hunterbrook arguments dismantled point by point: the recommissioning/new ammo mix (~80% in 2024 per HB) is “not relevant” and was already disclosed in the IPO prospectus.

3. M/L Ammo orders: €650m YTD 2026 (three unnamed customers), broadly in line with RHM — “far too early to draw conclusions,” European defence orders being lumpy and back-end loaded.

4. Capex: CSG at 10.2% of sales 2026E (joint 2nd in the peer group); comparison with RHM deemed unfair (RHM consolidates 100% of JV capex, not yet restated for partner reimbursement).

5. Governance / minorities: JPM rejects the “undisclosed minority shareholders” claim (already visible in pre-IPO accounts) and flips the Kratochvil argument — “if Mr Kratochvil believes his minority stake is worth a lot of money, then it is because he believes that CSG as a whole is worth a lot of money.”

Bottom line JPM: buy the weakness, no estimate changes; the onus is now on CSG to deliver on its 2026 guidance (FCF €800-900m, capex ~€700m).

LC

Virus spread by rodents killed three people, sickened three others, WHO says

Authorities are rushing to contain a suspected hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship currently off West Africa that they say killed three people and sickened three others.

The World Health Organization said it was investigating how the virus, which is transmitted by rodents, spread on the Dutch-flagged vessel currently off the coast of Cape Verde. The passenger-cruise ship called MV Hondius was traveling in the Atlantic Ocean, said Oceanwide Expeditions, the vessel’s operator.

The WHO said Sunday one case of hantavirus infection was confirmed, while the five others were suspected cases. One of the infected people is in intensive care in South Africa, the WHO said.

Oceanwide Expeditions laid out a timeline of the outbreak, saying a Dutch man died on the ship on April 11. His body was removed from the ship over a week later on the South Atlantic island of St. Helena. His wife got sick on a return journey and died later that month, the company said. Both the man and woman were infected with hantavirus, Oceanwide Expeditions said.

A British passenger with a confirmed hantavirus case became seriously ill on April 27 and was evacuated to South Africa, Oceanwide Expeditions said. The passenger is in critical but stable condition. A German passenger died on May 2, the company said.

Two crew members require urgent medical care for respiratory issues, Oceanwide Expeditions said. Dutch authorities are preparing to evacuate both of them by aircraft.

The Netherlands-based company said it’s attempting to repatriate the two symptomatic crew members from Cape Verde to the Netherlands.

“The priority of Oceanwide Expeditions is to ensure that the two symptomatic individuals on board receive adequate and expedited medical care,” the company said.

Humans can be infected with hantavirus by inhaling viruses that become airborne from rodent droppings. The virus doesn’t normally spread between humans, according to the WHO. One strain that is primarily found in Chile and Argentina, where the cruise departed from, has shown limited evidence of human-to-human transmission, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Hantavirus infection can lead to a rare but serious illness called hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, or HPS. Symptoms include fever, muscle aches, abdominal problems, shortness of breath and fluid-filled lungs, according to the CDC. There is no cure but the disease can be treated.

Betsy Arakawa, a pianist and the wife of actor Gene Hackman, died of HPS in her home in New Mexico last year.

The MV Hondius departed from Argentina on April 1, Oceanwide Expeditions said. It went to Antarctica and the British overseas territory of St. Helena, according to MarineTraffic. On Sunday, it anchored in Praia, the capital of Cape Verde. Oceanwide Expeditions operates cruises to Antarctica and the Arctic Ocean.

The company said there are 149 people, including 17 Americans, on the ship. Oceanwide Expeditions said local health authorities needed to give permission for passengers to disembark, possibly in the Canary Islands.

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The WHO said the remaining passengers and crew on the cruise ship were receiving medical care and support.