Reuters : German exporters face prolonged slump in key U.S., China markets

German exporters face prolonged slump in key U.S., China markets

BERLIN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - German exporters should prepare for continued weakness in 2026 in their two largest markets, the United States and China, with little prospect of recovery, the BGA trade association said on Friday.

"We do not see a turnaround, but at best a brief respite," said BGA president Dirk Jandura.

Exports to the U.S. are projected to have fallen more than 7% to just under 150 billion euros ($156 billion) in 2025, while exports to China have contracted even more sharply, dropping 10% to 81 billion euros, GTAI figures show. (https://dub.sh/zaxqCRu)


TARIFFS WEIGH ON TRANSATLANTIC TRADE
U.S. tariffs on EU goods have acted like "sand in the gears of transatlantic trade", Jandura said, adding they created a permanent additional burden on margins for German exporters.

Germany also faces structural headwinds, including a comparatively strong euro, high energy costs, excessive bureaucracy and weak investment, the BGA chief said.


CHINA PIVOT REDUCES GERMAN EXPORTS
In China, industrial policies favouring domestic producers have eroded demand for German goods, particularly in automotive, mechanical engineering and chemicals sectors where Chinese competitors are gaining ground.

German companies are increasingly localizing production within China or shifting investment to other Asian markets, Jandura said.

"This often stabilizes global sales, but leads to fewer exports from Germany," he said.

WSJ : The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway
As Warren Buffett passes the torch to Greg Abel, a mountain of cash is top of mind

Greg Abel assumes leadership of Berkshire Hathaway, facing the challenge of deploying a record $358 billion cash pile.
Berkshire Hathaway has been a net seller of stocks for twelve consecutive quarters and refrained from share buybacks for five quarters.
The S&P 500’s 16% jump in 2025 has made the market appear expensive, with companies trading at over five times their net assets.

Greg Abel’s time has come, and there’s a $358 billion question on investors’ minds: What will the new chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B -0.21%decrease; red down pointing triangle do with all of that cash?

As Warren Buffett’s handpicked successor, Abel faces several challenges as he takes the reins today. For one, he isn’t Warren Buffett, who became a household name as the leader of one of America’s most-admired companies. Shareholders don’t know if Abel can channel the stock-picking magic of his predecessor, who earned the nickname the Oracle of Omaha.

The most pressing issue is how to deploy Berkshire’s record cash pile. The company has been a net seller of stocks for 12 straight quarters. Close observers view that as a sign that prices had gotten too high for Buffett to believe an investment would lead to worthwhile long-term returns.

The S&P 500 index’s 16% jump in 2025 has left many corners of the market looking pricey for a bargain hunter like Berkshire. The company, which has historically done big share buybacks, also refrained from repurchasing its own shares for five consecutive quarters.

The resulting buildup of cash is a problem—though perhaps a good one, as far as problems go—that leaves Abel with both a menu of options and scrutiny from shareholders.

Abel long ago earned Buffett’s trust. As vice chairman, the 63-year-old has led all of the companies that Berkshire owns outside of the insurance sector since 2018.

“Greg has exceeded my expectations in every respect—and I hope he gets a 20-year run or more,” Buffett, 95, said in a recent statement to The Wall Street Journal.


Abel declined to comment for this article. At the 2025 annual meeting in May, he said the cash pile is an “enormous asset” that gives Berkshire a cushion if a market downturn occurs.

The company’s every move is closely followed. Over 60 years, Buffett built Berkshire into not only one of the most legendary U.S. companies, but one of the largest. Berkshire’s market value topped $1 trillion in 2024, one of only two non-tech companies in the U.S. to reach that milestone.

Once primarily Buffett’s vehicle for investments, the sprawling conglomerate now employs around 400,000 people across a range of businesses, including BNSF Railway, Dairy Queen, Duracell, Fruit of the Loom and Geico. It owns so many businesses in so many sectors that it’s sometimes seen as a proxy for the U.S. economy.

“Greg will make his mark on Berkshire,” said Chris Bloomstran, president of Semper Augustus Investments Group, which has owned Berkshire shares for about 25 years. “It’s going to be fun to see what he does.”

Abel was born in the Canadian Prairies. Boyhood hustles included delivering advertising fliers to homes, redeeming bottles for money and filling fire extinguishers. He grew up playing hockey and is an assistant coach on his son’s hockey team. Abel has credited team sports for shaping his leadership skills.

“If I had to be remembered as something right now, obviously I’d want to be remembered as a great father, but equally, a coach,” Abel said at the annual meeting.

Mark Oman, a former Wells Fargo executive and longtime friend of Abel, says that Abel and his wife, Andrea Abel, host gatherings at their home in Des Moines, Iowa, for the children who play on their son’s hockey team and their parents.

Oman recalls watching Olympic curling on TV with Abel and joking about getting a curling team together. Abel’s ultracompetitive instincts came out: “Oh, I think I could probably coach you to be the best in Iowa,” he quipped. “That’s kind of a low bar,” Oman remembers thinking.

Abel joined Berkshire more than two decades ago when Berkshire bought a 75% stake in Des Moines-based MidAmerican Energy, where he was president.

After the acquisition, he expanded the company, renamed Berkshire Hathaway Energy, into one of the biggest providers of power in the central and western U.S., in part through acquisitions and investments. In 2018, he was put in charge of all of Berkshire’s noninsurance businesses, ranging from candy to footwear to building materials.

“I think he’s been trained well, and he knows it well, and he’s a smart guy,” said Mario Gabelli, a money manager whose firm has owned shares of Berkshire since the 1980s. He got to know Abel better through their shared involvement in the nonprofit Horatio Alger Association of Distinguished Americans.

Abel is stepping into the spotlight at an age many Americans are considering retirement. He is the latest successor tasked with following in the footsteps of a lionized leader: Tim Cook took over Apple in 2011, the year Steve Jobs died, and Jeff Bezos handed over the reins at Amazon to Andy Jassy in 2021.

At Berkshire, it’s a handoff years in the making. Abel’s name has long popped up in Buffett’s annual letters to shareholders, considered essential reading among stock pickers—even those who don’t own Berkshire shares. Charlie Munger, Buffett’s longtime business partner, let the succession plan slip at the 2021 annual meeting. As CEO-in-waiting, Abel joined Buffett on stage at Berkshire’s arena-filled annual meetings.

“We will remain Berkshire,” Abel said at the 2025 meeting. “How Warren and the team have allocated capital for the past 60 years, it will not change.”

Buffett has long prided himself on maintaining a strong balance sheet with plenty saved up for a rainy day. During the financial crisis, he famously used Berkshire’s financial strength to throw lifelines to companies including Goldman Sachs and General Electric. He has been waiting for other big opportunities. At the 2017 annual meeting, Buffett said: “There’s no way I can come back here three years from now and tell you that we hold $150 billion or so in cash or more, and we think we’re doing something brilliant by doing it.” The cash pile kept growing.

Berkshire’s cash and equivalents increased to $358 billion by the end of September, after accounting for a payable for purchasing some short-term government debt.

The risk to holding so much cash is that the return Berkshire can receive on such holdings could fall as the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, some analysts have warned. On the other hand, they say, the cash is a protective armor for Berkshire’s balance sheet.

Buffett had said that he and his deputies were searching for stocks cheap enough to invest in. Some investors say they don’t expect Abel to make any big investments until a large market decline or recession brings stocks down from historically expensive levels.

Companies in the S&P 500 are trading at more than 5 times the value of their net assets, above their 10-year average of 3.9 times. Berkshire’s Class B shares recently traded at a price-to-book ratio of 1.6, according to FactSet.

Others have speculated Berkshire could use its cash to pay a dividend, something Buffett has resisted, partly because of the tax consequences for shareholders. The company has only done so on one occasion, a dividend of 10 cents a share in 1967.

Little is known about Abel’s own investing record. He has said that he shares Buffett’s investing creed, including prioritizing a fortresslike balance sheet.

For years, Todd Combs, Geico’s former chief executive, and Ted Weschler, Berkshire’s investment manager, were expected to take over stock-picking duties once Buffett stepped down. But, in December, Berkshire announced that Combs had resigned to lead a $10 billion strategic-investment group at JPMorgan Chase.

One clue for what could happen: Buffett said at Berkshire’s 2024 shareholder meeting that he believes Abel should handle capital allocation decisions on his own. “He understands businesses extremely well,” Buffett said. “If you understand businesses, you understand common stocks.”

Berkshire’s Class B shares have slid about 7% since Buffett said he is retiring, which some attribute to the loss of a “Buffett premium,” or the higher price investors were willing to pay to own Berkshire’s stock because of his presence. Berkshire has a particularly large number of individual investors, and they come from all over the world.


Berkshire already said Abel will take over from Buffett to write the company’s annual letters to shareholders. And in May, when Berkshire investors gather in Omaha, Neb., for its annual meeting, Abel will take the stage to answer questions, while Buffett, who will remain chairman, sits nearby with the other board members.

Berkshire shareholders say that they don’t expect Abel to try to be the next Buffett. More important, they say, he doesn’t have to be.

That is largely by Buffett’s design. Buffett is a famously hands-off manager, building Berkshire as a decentralized company with just a handful of top executives and largely autonomous subsidiaries. Buffett has said he purposely purchases companies that are so self-sufficient that they can thrive regardless of who is at Berkshire’s helm.

Abel is taking over a different Berkshire than Buffett did. Berkshire’s current size means that the company must be even more prudent when making investment decisions than it has been in the past, Buffett has said. Berkshire is also big enough that its future growth will be slow, he has said.

“It’s all an evolution, right? Buffett and Munger took the company to this point. It may, in fact, be right that a different kind of person could take it further,” said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, a longtime Berkshire shareholder.

Abel has largely kept a low profile and stayed out of the spotlight, unlike Buffett who lent his image to ads for brands such as Geico and made cameos in “The Office” and soap opera “All My Children.” Shareholders say they don’t see Abel penning op-eds or making appearances on TV shows.

Nor do they expect him to act as Wall Street’s authoritative voice of calm. “I don’t think the market is turning to Greg for advice in the midst of a 40% market downturn,” said Darren Pollock, portfolio manager at Cheviot Value Management and a Berkshire shareholder.

That doesn’t mean Abel won’t be a good steward for Berkshire shareholders, he added. Plus, Buffett will still be nearby in the Omaha office.

>>> Happy New Year 2026.

May your alpha be positive, your drawdowns shallow, and your Sharpe ratio the envy of your peers.

Here’s to a year where the only thing more volatile than the markets is our collective optimism about predicting them.

Wishing you outsized returns and undersized regrets.

Cheers to 2026!

Laurent

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of January 2026

Stocks opened the new year with artificial intelligence and chipmaking once again dominating market moves. Precious metals — another hot corner of the market in 2025 — also advanced. Asian shares climbed 0.9%, with internet and chip stocks advancing and a regional technology gauge rising to a record. Samsung Electronics Co. touched an all-time high. Baidu Inc. gained 7.5% after its chip unit filed for an IPO, while AI chip designer Shanghai Biren Technology Co. doubled on its Hong Kong trading debut. Equity-index futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.7%. Spot gold rose 1.3% and silver jumped 2.5%, building on their best annual performances since 1979. Despite a recent pullback, global stocks in 2025 posted their strongest year since 2019, supported by expectations of stronger earnings and optimism around AI. Even so, uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary policy and elevated valuations among technology companies remain key risks. “AI is a major trading idea for Asian investors on the first trading day of 2026, and probably for the year too,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. Companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung are like “picks and shovels” for the AI industry “with high earnings visibility for the year given the capex plans of US hyperscalers.” Tech stocks and AI were among the most dominating themes of 2025, helping equities recover from a slump in April caused by President Donald Trump’s century-high US tariffs. Asian companies struck joint ventures with chipmakers such as Nvidia Corp., prompting investors to cheer a wave of similar alliances. The Nasdaq 100 Index gained 20% last year, a third consecutive year of gains. Nvidia shares rose 39%, while Samsung advanced 126% and TSMC 44%. Then, in November, Wall Street chief executives said investors should brace for an equity market drop of more than 10% in the next 12 to 24 months, amid concerns about frothy valuations and bubbles among technology companies. In other corners of the market, copper and cryptocurrencies also gained, while Australia’s sovereign bonds dropped along with a gauge of the dollar. There was no cash trading in Treasuries during Asian hours due to a holiday in Japan. Markets in mainland China were also shut. While Asian stocks started off the year on a positive note, market research firm Bespoke Investment Group has cautioned against expecting solid market performance during the first trading day of the new year.  Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to kick off a new year has been a 0.3% drop, with gains less than half the time, according to a note by Bespoke. The stock market has also traded lower on the first trading day of each of the past three years, the note said. However, investors have at least one reason to be optimistic. MSCI’s gauge for global stocks has climbed an average 1.4% in January over the last 10 years and advanced in six of those instances, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. “The end of 2025 was a fizzer in global markets but it doesn’t detract from the fact it was a very good year for investors,” Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “Naturally, the start of the new year comes with the question everyone asks moving from one year to the next: will this continue? The consensus is that, yes, it will.”

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +2.70% CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1756 CNH 6.9740 CNY 6.9890 JPY 156.84 GBP 1.3480 CHF 0.7920 RUB 78.7500 TRY 43.0202 WTI$ 57.73 +0.54% Gold 4,378 +1.36% BTC 88,492 +0.25% ETH 3,006 +0.68% SOL 126.73 +1.14%

S&P +0.47% Nasdaq +0.74% EuroStoxx -0.43% FTSE +0.28% Dax 0.10% SMI

Macro :
- About 40 Killed in Fire at Swiss Resort of Crans-Montana
- Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB - FT
- Trump Delays New Tariff Hike on Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets
- Jack Smith Says Trump Allies Were Willing to Testify Against Him
- European Stocks Close Best Year Since 2021 Near Record Highs
- Drugmakers to raise US prices on at least 350 medicines despite pressure from Trump - NY Post
- Italy Lower House said to approve 2026 budget; vote: 216 to 126, Budget targets a budget deficit of 2.8% in 2026 ()compares to 3.0% in 2025)

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : KLM and Unions Reach Labor Agreement for Cabin Crew
- AMP SM : Amper Rallies After Winning Two Mauritania Airport Contracts
- AAPL US : Apple cuts Vision Pro production and marketing after weak sales - FT
- BIDU US : Baidu Chip Unit Kunlunxin Confidentially Files for Hong Kong IPO
- BA US : Boeing Wins $2.73 Billion U.S. Army Contract
- BN CN : Brookfield to Start Cloud Computing Business: The Information
- 1211 HK : BYD's Sales Growth Slowed in 2025, But Still Set to Top Tesla
- CAN LN : Canal+, Warner Bros. Discovery Sign New Multi-Year Pact
- DeepSeek : DeepSeek Touts New Training Method as China Pushes AI Efficiency
- LLY US : Celltrion Signs 678.7b Won CMO Contract With Eli Lilly
- EOAN GY : Said to call for the end to gov't subsidies for solar power in Germany - German press - Source TradeTheNews.com
- ELISA FH : Finland Seizes Ship Suspected of Damaging Subsea Cable
- EMGS NO : Evaluating several alternatives to preserve value for its stakeholders, including restructuring options - Expects to require additional funding within the near term to sustain operations
- KER FP : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- LMT US : Lockheed Wins $328.5 Million U.S. Air Force Contract
- MC FP : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- MTRS SS : Munters Wins SEK2.1b of Orders for Data Center Equipment in US
- NEE US : NextEra Energy Files for $4b Shares ATM Offering
- NIO US : NIO Inc. Dec. Deliveries 48,135 Vs. 36,275 M/M
- ORSTED DC : Trump admin sued for halting work on the US’s largest offshore wind farm - Electrek
- ORSTED DC : Orsted JV to File Prelim Injunction vs US Lease Suspension Order
- 1913 HK : Prada : -0.14% : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- PRY IM : Prysmian May Consider Acquisitions in 2026: CEO to Repubblica
- SKAB SS : Skanska Signs Contract to Build Data Center in US for $228m
- SLB US : Adnoc Drilling Buys 70% Stake in SLB JV for Kuwait, Oman Rigs
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins Offshore Contract in Black Sea Worth About $425m
- SNCVP BB : SNCB Rail Unions Plan Strike at End of January, Belga Reports
- TSLA US : Tesla Sales Outlook Darkens Despite Musk’s Self-Driving Euphoria
- TSLA US : Tesla Cuts EV Prices By Up to $6,490 in South Korea: Chosun
- TRC LN : Revel Collective Told Bidders to Submit Offers by Jan. 9: Sky
- VLA FP : Valneva, Serum Institute of India End Chikungunya Vaccine Pact
- VOD LN : Vodafone Idea Shares Rise After Pact on Contingent Liabilities
- WBD US : Canal+, Warner Bros. Discovery Sign New Multi-Year Pact
- XPEV US : Xpeng Dec. Vehicle Deliveries 37,508 Units

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fresnillo (FNL TH) +3.4%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +2.8%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) +1.2%
  • GTT (9TG TH) -1.1%
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -1.1%
  • M&G (7MP TH) -1.3%
  • Yara (IU2 TH) -1.3%
  • Magnum Ice Cream (7RM TH) -1.4%
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) -1.4%
  • Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) -1.5%
  • Orange (FTE TH) -1.5%
  • Hexagon (HXG TH) -1.8%
  • Abivax (2X1 TH) -3.5%

TechCrunch : ‘College dropout’ has become the most coveted startup founder crede

‘College dropout’ has become the most coveted startup founder credential

Although iconic founders like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg famously didn’t finish college, multiple studies show that the vast majority of successful startups had founders with bachelor’s or graduate degrees.

Despite this data, the appeal of a dropout founder persists, though VC enthusiasm for the ‘un-degreed’ is far from constant. It is a phenomenon that cycles in and out of fashion, and right now it is certainly having a moment amid the AI boom.

This trend is particularly evident during Y Combinator Demo Days, where founders are increasingly touting their dropout status in their one-minute pitches.

“I don’t believe YC formally tracks dropout status but, anecdotally, in recent batches, I was struck by how many founders highlight being a dropout from college, grad school, and even high school,” said Katie Jacobs Stanton, founder and general partner of Moxxie Ventures. “Being a dropout is a kind of credential in itself, reflecting a deep conviction and commitment to building. I think it’s perceived as something quite positive in the venture ecosystem.”

Although many of the leading founders of the AI wave are young, most still opted to stay for the diploma. For instance, Michael Truell, the CEO of Cursor, graduated from MIT, and Cognition co-founder Scott Wu graduated from Harvard.

Yet despite these examples, a growing number of aspiring entrepreneurs fear that staying to graduate means missing the most critical window of the AI building cycle. Some, like Brendan Foody, who co-founded Mercor, have famously dropped out of prestigious schools like Georgetown to pursue their startups.

As Kulveer Taggar, founder of the YC-focused venture firm Phosphor Capital, told TechCrunch: “There’s just this sense of urgency and maybe FOMO.” There is a calculation right now: “I can finish my degree, or I can just start building.”

This fear is leading to extreme cases. One professor at an elite university recently described a student walking away from his degree in his final semester. That student was convinced that having a diploma would actually hurt his chances of getting funded.

While some founders fear that a diploma could be a negative signal, Yuri Sagalov, who leads General Catalyst’s seed strategy, suggests that VCs are less fixated on the dropout label, especially for students close to graduating: “I don’t think I’ve ever felt any different about someone who graduated or didn’t graduate when they’re in [their] fourth year and drop out.”

Even though self-taught tech prodigies can build startups without a formal education, Sagalov argues that there’s still value in the social network that a university creates and the brand of the university, even if the founder doesn’t receive a diploma.

‘You get a lot of the social value… because you can put the fact that you participated,’ Sagalov said. “Most people will look you up on LinkedIn and not care as much whether you finished or not.”

While many investors now believe founders can forego a university degree, not all VCs agree that young founders have an edge in this market.

Wesley Chan, co-founder of FPV Ventures, isn’t as eager to invest in dropouts because he prioritizes a trait most young founders haven’t developed yet: wisdom. Chan believes that wisdom is typically found in “older founders or people who have a couple of scars under their belt.”

TechCrunch : OpenAI bets big on audio as Silicon Valley declares war on screens

OpenAI bets big on audio as Silicon Valley declares war on screens

OpenAI is betting big on audio AI, and it’s not just about making ChatGPT sound better. According to new reporting from The Information, the company has unified several engineering, product, and research teams over the past two months to overhaul its audio models, all in preparation for an audio-first personal device expected to launch in about a year.

The move reflects where the entire tech industry is headed — toward a future where screens become background noise and audio takes center stage. Smart speakers have already made voice assistants a fixture in more than a third of U.S. homes. Meta just rolled out a feature for its Ray-Ban smart glasses that uses a five-microphone array to help you hear conversations in noisy rooms — essentially turning your face into a directional listening device. Google, meanwhile, began experimenting in June with “Audio Overviews” that transform search results into conversational summaries, and Tesla is integrating xAI’s chatbot Grok into its vehicles to create a conversational voice assistant that handles everything from navigation to climate control through natural dialogue.

It’s not just the tech giants placing this bet. A motley crew of startups has emerged with the same conviction, albeit with varying degrees of success. The makers of the Humane AI Pin burned through hundreds of millions before their screenless wearable became a cautionary tale. The Friend AI pendant, a necklace that claims it will record your life and offer companionship, has sparked privacy concerns and existential dread in equal measure. And now at least two companies, including Sandbar and one helmed by Pebble founder Eric Migicovsky, are building AI rings expected to debut in 2026, allowing wearers to literally talk to the hand.

The form factors may differ, but the thesis is the same: audio is the interface of the future. Every space — your home, your car, even your face — is becoming a control surface.

OpenAI’s new audio model, slated for early 2026, will reportedly sound more natural, handle interruptions like an actual conversation partner, and even speak while you’re talking, which is something today’s models can’t manage. The company is also said to envision a family of devices, possibly including glasses or screenless smart speakers, that act less like tools and more like companions.

None of this is hugely surprising. As The Information notes, former Apple design chief Jony Ive, who joined OpenAI’s hardware efforts through the company’s $6.5 billion acquisition in May of his firm io, has made reducing device addiction a priority, seeing audio-first design as a chance to “right the wrongs” of past consumer gadgets.

Reuters : Jan 1 (Reuters) - Canada-based Capstone Copper (CS.TO), opens new tab

Jan 1 (Reuters) - Canada-based Capstone Copper (CS.TO), opens new tab said on Thursday that a union representing about half the workers at its Mantoverde copper and gold mine in Chile and roughly 22% of the company's total workforce will launch a strike on January 2.

The copper miner said it had sought to reach a new collective bargaining agreement before the strike notice and will gradually scale down operations at the mine in a safe manner. Output is expected to run at up to 30% of normal levels during the stoppage, it added.

Capstone said it remains open to talks to resolve the dispute.

Mantoverde is 70% owned by Capstone and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials (5711.T), opens new tab. The mine is forecast to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 metric tons of copper cathodes in 2025.