FT : Psychedelics and business could make for a bad trip

Psychedelics and business could make for a bad trip
Brash new investors are clashing with the pioneers of mind-altering drug therapies

In case you don’t have any tech bro friends who’ve told you this already: the “psychedelic renaissance” is in full swing. From mushroom-derived psilocybin to LSD, mescaline — Hunter S Thompson’s favourite — and ayahuasca-compound DMT, mind-altering substances are back, baby.

But this time around, the people involved are not just wittering on about free love and world peace. The new generation of enthusiasts will tell you that psychedelics offer two big opportunities: solving the western world’s “mental health crisis” and also making you — and them — some serious money.

For proof of how delicately the altruism and profit motives can be brought together, consider the co-founder and former chief executive of New York-based psychedelics start-up MindMed, JR Rahn, on the day the company — he called it “the Tesla of mental health” — listed on the Nasdaq last year. “Forty per cent of the country is suffering [mental ill health],” Rahn said. “That’s a big, big market.”

And for evidence of how profound the psychedelic experience can be, look no further than the epiphany achieved by billionaire financier Christian Angermayer, whose psychedelics start-up Atai Life Sciences is backed by tech billionaire Peter Thiel and crypto investor Mike Novogratz. Taking magic mushrooms, Angermayer says he experienced a quieting of the ego that led to a breakthrough: finally he understood the world-changing potential of bitcoin and the blockchain. Ain’t that a trip.

Like the crypto and cannabis industries before it — both of which Angermayer and Thiel also invest in — psychedelics attract a certain breed of libertarian, hype-driven investor keen to prove their edgy and subversive credentials. Investment has poured in: most of these drugs are still illegal but more than $3bn has been raised on the promise that psychedelics could be a magic cure for conditions from depression to PTSD and even drug addiction.

Yet there is something of a clash of cultures between the new entrants who deal in hype, and the industry’s pioneers, who have been working on getting these drugs taken seriously for decades — not to make money, but because they believe passionately in their healing potential.

One of those pioneers is Rick Doblin, the 68-year-old founder of the Multidisciplinary Association for Psychedelic Studies, or MAPS. Doblin says he welcomes the attention and investment that the new entrants bring, but is worried by the incentives that derive from the profit motive.

“Once you switch from donors to investors, everything changes — even if they’re mission-aligned investors,” Doblin tells me. The $135mn MAPS has raised in its 36 years, through grants and donations, is dwarfed by the billions raised by for-profit start-ups over the past three years alone. “How do we prevent it from becoming classic pharma, and keep the public mission going? Well, the answer is it’s very, very hard, and it’s not clear.”

Of course the drugs driving this industry, which are being touted as a mental health cure-all, already exist. But an estimated $2.9 billion of the $3.26 billion in capital raised by the 73 biggest psychedelics companies has been spent on drug development. Hundreds of psychedelics patents have been filed with the US patents office; one company claimed exclusivity because its therapy room used “muted colours” and cosy furniture.

During this race to gain financial advantage over competitors, there seems to be a degree of naïveté around the potential of psychedelic drugs. While the industry draws in similar investors and is often compared to cannabis (use is becoming destigmatised and the decriminalisation of various compounds is possible), it is in fact quite different.

Cannabis, used by millions of people every day, is effectively a consumer product, while the psychedelic renaissance is about the use of drugs in a very limited, therapeutic context. Scientific research suggests long-term breakthroughs in reducing anxiety and depression with even a single dose.

Not only is it hard to see a consistent revenue stream coming from psychedelics; consistent results are also far from guaranteed, promising as some research might be. “Psychedelics are really unpredictable,” says Zoe Cormier, author of Sex, Drugs, and Rock ’n’ Roll. “They have a variety of effects depending on . . . what you’re going through and your personality and your genetics.”

Investors might be starting to sober up. Psychedelics stocks have fallen sharply in recent months. Angermayer’s Atai Life Sciences, valued at more than $3bn when it listed in 2021, has since collapsed by more than 85 per cent. That might just quieten the ego a little, too.

WSJ : Binance Walks Away From Deal to Rescue FTX

Binance Walks Away From Deal to Rescue FTX
Crypto exchange’s decision leaves FTX with uncertain future as it faces multibillion-dollar shortfall

Crypto exchange Binance reversed course on a rescue offer for FTX Wednesday, leaving the prominent digital firm with an uncertain future as it faces a shortfall of up to $8 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Binance chose not to go ahead with the nonbinding offer following a review of the company’s finances, the exchange said. “In the beginning, our hope was to be able to support FTX’s customers to provide liquidity, but the issues are beyond our control or ability to help,” Binance said in a statement.

In a call Wednesday with investors in FTX, founder and Chief Executive Sam Bankman-Fried said he needs emergency funding because of customer withdrawal requests received in recent days, the people familiar with the matter said. Those requests sparked a debilitating liquidity squeeze.

FTX told investors that it was hoping to raise up to $4 billion in equity to fill the shortfall, people familiar said.

The implosion of the Binance rescue deal weighed on financial markets already rattled by uncertainty around the outcome of U.S. midterm elections. The Nasdaq dove around 2.5% Wednesday while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 both fell around 2%.

Bitcoin, the biggest and best-known cryptocurrency, fell around 16%, bringing its value below $16,000 for the first time since November 2020. It is now down around 75% from an all-time high reached in November 2021.

Also on Wednesday, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Gary Gensler issued a stern warning to crypto platforms, after more than a year of encouraging them publicly to register with his agency. He also likened the broader crypto market to a stack of Jenga blocks that gets weaker with each failure.

Once seen as a shining survivor in a struggling industry, FTX’s fall has sent shock waves through the cryptocurrency industry. Just months ago, Mr. Bankman-Fried committed nearly a billion dollars to bail out struggling cryptocurrency lenders and was an active lobbyist considered widely to be the face of crypto in Washington.

Binance’s retreat now leaves FTX’s fate unclear; the cause and full extent of FTX’s financial problems are unknown. FTX declined to comment.

In an internal FTX slack channel, Mr. Bankman-Fried on Wednesday wrote, “We obviously just saw Binance’s statement; they relayed that to the media first, not to us, and had not previously informed us or expressed those reservations,” according to a copy of the message reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Bankman-Fried wrote that he was working on next steps and doing what he can to protect customers, employees and investors. “I’m deeply sorry that we got into this place, and for my role in it. That’s on me, and me alone, and it sucks, and I’m sorry, not that that makes it any better.”

Besides the firm and Mr. Bankman-Fried, well-known institutions that invested in the exchange are on the hook for potentially big losses. Among investors in a $900 million fundraising last year were SoftBank Group Corp., Sequoia Capital, hedge fund Third Point and tech-oriented private-equity firm Thoma Bravo.

In a letter to its investors late Wednesday, Sequoia said it is writing off the $150 million that one of its funds invested in FTX because of “solvency risk” for the crypto company. “The full nature and extent of this risk is not known at this time,” the letter said. “Based on our current understanding, we are marking out investment down to $0.”

Individual traders could also lose funds. FTX has halted withdrawals of both crypto and fiat currencies from the exchange, according to a pinned post in its official Telegram channel.

Michael Turský, a European crypto trader, said he hasn’t been able to withdraw his nearly $11,000 from FTX since midday Wednesday. Those funds represented around 70% of his liquid net worth, he said.

He said he tried to withdraw his cash multiple times, to no avail. “Knowing FTX’s brand and name, I would have never thought it would go under in a few days,” Mr. Turský said. “Even if it did, I would have never expected them to stop all withdrawals”

Losses related to FTX spread beyond the firm itself. Stock investors dumped shares of publicly traded companies that are tied to cryptocurrencies with holdings of them or that derive fees from trading them.

Shares in Coinbase Global Inc. fell almost 10% despite assurances from its chief executive on Twitter that the company has sufficient assets for customer withdrawals and doesn’t have any material exposure to FTX. Coinbase closed at its lowest level since going public last year when it fetched an $85 billion valuation. Its market value Wednesday was around $10 billion.

Shares of Silvergate Capital Corp., the closest U.S. bank to the crypto world, dropped 12% and have shed some 75% of their value this year. Shares of MicroStrategy Inc., which pivoted from business software into largely a buy-and-hold vehicle for bitcoin, fell nearly 20%.

Brokerage app Robinhood Markets Inc., which offers trading in more than just crypto, was burned by fears that one of its biggest shareholders, Mr. Bankman-Fried, would have to dump his shares. Robinhood shares dropped nearly 14% on Wednesday, bringing losses for the week to more than 30%.

The cause of the FTX liquidity squeeze still isn’t known, but some investors and crypto holders are asking if links between the exchange and a related company, Hong Kong crypto-trading firm Alameda Research, could have contributed to the crisis. Alameda is majority owned by Mr., Bankman-Fried, and he founded both FTX and Alameda.

Questions about the depth and extent of FTX and Alameda’s financial relationship grew last week after CoinDesk published a report that indicated much of Alameda’s balance sheet was made up of FTT, a cryptocurrency created by FTX.

Cryptocurrency exchanges, like their counterparts in the world of traditional, regulated finance, rely on a mix of partners to provide digital assets for trading, like bitcoin or ether. So-called market makers help traders buy and sell. They get paid by collecting a small difference between the bid and offer price.

Having ties between an exchange and market maker raised governance issues and the potential for conflicts of interest. In theory, such ties could allow a market maker to potentially trade on privileged information or use the exchange to inflate or deflate prices of a given security.

“These related-party relationships are all red flags that any regulator would recognize,” said Larry Harris, a finance professor at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business and a former Securities and Exchange Commission chief economist.

In traditional financial markets for equities and futures, exchanges are required to be neutral platforms. Regulators discourage them from being intertwined with trading firms. In the unregulated world of crypto, though, there aren’t any such constraints.

There were other links between FTX and Alameda, which besides being a market maker traded for its own purposes. The firm used FTX’s FTT tokens as collateral for loans it took out from other crypto lenders, according to people familiar with the matter.

FTT went into free fall in the days after the CoinDesk report and has lost around 90% of its value.

Mr. Bankman-Fried previously rebutted the idea Alameda was intertwined with FTX, saying to the Journal in February that none of FTX’s market makers have access to any nonpublic market data. And while Alameda trades on FTX, he said, “their volume is a very small fraction of overall exchange volume, and their account’s access is the same as others.”

>>> US After Hours Summary: APPS +24.4%, MGNI +19.4%, RNG +15.2%, ZIP +13.4%, FI

After Hours Summary: APPS +24.4%, MGNI +19.4%, RNG +15.2%, ZIP +13.4%, FICO +10.9%, RIVN +6.6% higher on earnings; BMBL -15%, BGS -10%, U -6.5%, RDFN -3.1% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: APPS +24.4%, MGNI +19.4%, PRPL +15.2%, RNG +15.2%, RPAY +13.5%, ZIP +13.4%, FOSL +12.8%, FICO +10.9%, PETQ +9.4%, ZIMV +8.6%, CPNG +7.9%, ENS +7.2%, JXN +7.1%, CELH +6.8%, RIVN +6.6%, MQ +5.8%, PAYO +4.1%, BROS +3.4%, CPRX +3.4%, RXDX +3.3%, VUZI +2.4%, KOD +1.8%, VZIO +1.7%, MFC +1.6%, UHAL +1.3%, KGC +1.2%, SWCH +1.1%, PAAS +0.6%, G +0.2%, ATO +0.1% (also increases dividend), PAY +0.1%, CNNE +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: APA +0.7% (multi-year partnership with the Clean Cooking Alliance), HAS +0.5% (CFO to retire), CCJ +0.3% (produces first packaged pounds following McArthur River/Key Lake Restart), ADP +0.2% (authorizes new $5 bln share repurchase program), PX +0.1% (files $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: EGIO -32.9%, CANO -25.3%, VCSA -18.2%, DM -17.6%, BMBL -15%, NLS -11.8%, BGS -10% (also reduces dividend), CDE -6.7%, U -6.5%, APP -6%, NUVA -3.8%, RKLB -3.4%, RDFN -3.1%, PLBY -2.6%, STKL -1.3%, TTEK -0.9%, BYND -0.8%, NVTS -0.7%, COOK -0.5%, FORG -0.4%, WYNN -0.3%, OLO -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: WRK -2.5% (SON to purchase remaining interest in RTS Packaging from JV partner WRK), VERU -0.9% (FDA's Advisory Committee voted against its repurposed cancer drug sabizabulin, according to Endpoints News), AB -0.8% (reports October AUM), OMER -0.4% (files $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering), SON -0.1% (SON to purchase remaining interest in RTS Packaging from JV partner WRK), APAM -0.1% (reports October AUM)

>>> US Close Dow -1,95% S&P -2,08% Nasdaq -2,48% Russell -2,68%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The stock market had a defensive posture today. Fairly broad based selling had the major averages stuck in negative territory and sporting sizable losses at the close which approximated their worst levels of the session. The disconcerting price action in the cryptocurrency market kept buyers sidelined, along with disappointing quarterly results from Walt Disney (DIS 86.75, -13.15, -13.2%) and a number of growth stocks like Affirm Holdings (AFRM 12.10, -3.54, -22.6%).

Market participants also digested midterm election results today. Some races remain too close to call, yet reports indicate the likely outcome is a split Congress that will lead to a legislative gridlock environment. That would make it near impossible to pass any additional tax hikes or major spending plans, which was the expected outcome going into the election, so there was a sell-the-news component behind today's losses.

The major averages had been clinging to a somewhat narrow trading range, albeit in negative territory, until selling picked up noticeably in the cryptocurrency market and stocks took another leg lower. This followed reports that Binance walked away from a plan to acquire FTX.com. Bitcoin was down 14.0% and Ethereum was down 14.2% around the time the stock market closed.

The specter of margin calls, as crypto prices plunged, undercut the stock market, which is likely to be used as a source of funds to help meet those calls. The S&P 500 fell below 3,800 during today's session and was unable to reclaim a posture above that mark, as bids fell by the wayside in a risk-averse market.

Other factors in play today include some apprehension ahead of the Consumer Price Index for October tomorrow and the dismal 10-yr note auction. 

The high yield of 4.14% at the 10-yr note auction tailed the when-issued yield of 4.106% by nearly four basis points. The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.23 was well below the prior 12-auction average of 2.45% and the indirect takedown of 57.5% was well below the prior 12-auction average of 67.0%.

The 10-yr note yield settled up three basis points to 4.15% and the 2-yr note yield fell two basis points to 4.64%.

The U.S. Dollar Index rose 0.8% to 110.47.

All 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in the red. Utilities (-0.8%) showed the slimmest loss while energy (-4.9%) brought up the rear as oil prices pulled back. WTI crude oil futures fell 3.9% to $85.67/bbl and  natural gas futures fell 5.8% to $6.26/mmbtu.

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 0.1% following last week's 0.5% decline
  • September Wholesale Inventories rose 0.6% versus a revised 1.4% increase in August (from 1.3%)
  • Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories showed a build of 3.92 million barrels after last week's draw of 3.12 million barrels

Looking ahead to Thursday, market participants will receive the following economic data:

  • 8:30 ET: November CPI ( consensus 0.7%; prior 0.4%), Core CPI ( consensus 0.5%; prior 0.6%), weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 220,000; prior 217,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.485 mln)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +107 bcf)
  • 14:00 ET: October Treasury Budget (prior -$429.70 bln)

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -10.5% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -16.2% YTD
S&P 500: -21.4% YTD
Russell 2000: -21.6% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -33.8% YTD 

>>> US Early premarket gappers


Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • ARRY +20.4%, RAMP +18.4%, OSUR +10.3%, HCAT +9.7%, SFM +9.2%, ABCL +9.1%, ICHR +8.8%, AXON +8.5%, NVTA +8.1%, BIRD +7.5%, SILK +6.7%, DV +5.8%, GXO +5.4%, PERI +5.2%, CRCT +5%, ZD +5%, MRTX +4.3%, HALO +4.2%, MRC +3.7%, SUPN +3.7%, XP +3.5%, IAC +3.1%, IOSP +3.1%, NEWR +3%, ADEA +2.8%, FVRR +2.8%, PR +2.7%, TWO +2.6%, AKAM +2.5%, NSTG +2.4%, CLNE +1.9%, GEN +1.8%, NOG +1.8%, DDD +1.6%, NTRA +1.3%, SEER +1.1%, NVAX +1.1%, ALRM +1.1%, FLYW +1.1%, SRC +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • AMRS -26.3%, UPST -25.9%, CARG -21.7%, AFRM -15.6%, EBS -13.8%, GDRX -11.3%, NWSA -9.3%, LCID -8.2%, AVID -8.2%, DIS -7.8%, PUBM -7.7%, TDW -6.3%, JKHY -6%, ARLO -5.3%, MARA -5.2%, XENE -5%, COIN -4.9%, SG -4.8%, SNCR -4.5%, AMC -4.3%, WD -4.1%, WTI -3.8%, CEVA -3.8%, GO -3.7%, GMED -3.6%, LMND -3.6%, KIND -3.4%, TTD -3.3%, GFI -2.5%, PLUG -2.3%, GLPG -1.8%, OPK -1.6%, DAR -1.6%, RVNC -1.6%, VSAT -1.5%, HRTX -1.4%, ZEN -1.3%, AUY -1.2%, BCS -1.1%