Cover:
-OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is engaged in various ventures, including verifying humans on the blockchain, advising a public company competing with Salesforce for marketing tech tools, promoting a Dan Ives-branded AI-focused ETF, and supporting a clothing line. Meanwhile, Dan Ives, global head of tech research at Wedbush Securities, has become a prominent Wall Street analyst due to his optimistic views and media presence, but his extracurricular roles at Eightco Holdings and Zeta Global, along with his involvement in Wedbush's AI fund, raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest. Ives' s support for AI and crypto on Capitol Hill, while also covering these sectors for Wedbush, may compromise his objectivity, highlighting the importance of transparency in analyst disclosures as required by Finra regulations.
Interview:
-CoreWeave, led by CEO Michael Intrator, distinguishes itself as a non-traditional tech firm focused on providing cloud-computing resources for AI giants like OpenAI and Meta. Intrator, who comes from a commodities and finance background, emphasizes the technical expertise within CoreWeave, which operates large data centers, including a significant 450,000-square-foot site in Plano, Texas, primarily utilizing Nvidia's GPUs. In financing these capital-intensive operations, CoreWeave employs innovative debt market strategies, a departure from the typical Silicon Valley reliance on equity financing. Intrator critiques this conventional approach as inefficient, arguing that debt is crucial for the sustainable development of infrastructure and that the debt markets demand accountability—highlighted by CoreWeave's substantial financial obligations, with $10.3B in long-term debt and $310M in interest expenses reported in their recent quarter. This perspective reflects a broader understanding of balancing financial strategy with technological advancement.
Tech Trader:
-Microsoft unveiled its earnings report, focusing investor attention on its artificial intelligence (AI) initiatives. The company is promoting an AI assistant, Copilot, available as a $30 upgrade for its Microsoft 365 productivity suite, which has about 450 million users. According to CFO Amy Hood, only 15 million users (3%) have subscribed to Copilot thus far, and its sales have not significantly impacted the top line revenue growth of the Microsoft 365 commercial cloud unit, which was up 14%—consistent with previous growth rates. This raises concerns as the AI monetization strategy does not appear to be thriving, and the use of Microsoft's Azure cloud resources for Copilot may be detracting from more profitable services. Consequently, investors reacted negatively, leading to a 10% drop in Microsoft's stock on Thursday, the largest single-day decline since March 2020, despite the company's earnings and revenue surpassing Wall Street expectations.
The Trader:
-The health insurance sector, particularly UnitedHealth Group (UNH), is facing significant challenges, evidenced by a 17% drop in share prices. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) proposed a 0.09% increase in Medical Advantage insurance premiums for 2027, substantially lower than the expected 5%, which could severely impact future earnings. UnitedHealth's recent fourth-quarter results showed revenue of $113.2 billion, falling short of the $113.8 billion forecast, alongside a disappointing guidance for 2026 sales at $439 billion compared to Wall Street's $453 billion. Revenue projections from its Optum unit are also down, expected at $257.5 billion, $18.5 billion below expectations, as the company emphasizes Optum Insight. Additionally, UnitedHealth anticipates a drop of over 1 million Medicare Advantage members due to a strategic right-sizing aimed at cost reduction. Its medical cost ratio has risen for three consecutive years, squeezing profit margins, and the Department of Justice is investigating its government funding requests, complicating the situation further.
-Pharmaceutical stocks have surged, with the State Street SPDR S&P Pharmaceuticals ETF rising 32% in six months and nearing its 2015 high. The sector's growth is attributed to a renewed interest in healthcare, with the State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF increasing 15%. Investment in artificial intelligence by healthcare companies is expected to enhance profit margins. Positive sentiment from the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference regarding FDA approvals for new drug candidates has further boosted market confidence, with notable gains among companies like Merck (27%), Gilead Sciences (24%), and Regeneron (38%). However, the rising valuations may pose risks; any earnings shortfalls or drug pipeline setbacks could lead to stock declines, despite the potential for sustained earnings growth as forecasted by analysts.
Features:
-Credit card issuers, including Visa and American Express, reported strong consumer spending in the last quarter of 2025, with Visa's U.S. payments volume up 7% and American Express noting a 10% increase in retail spending. Visa's CFO highlighted robust holiday spending consistent across income levels, while American Express indicated a 15% rise in luxury retail due to its wealthier clientele. Despite concerns about consumer affordability, these trends suggest that Americans participated actively in holiday shopping. Analysts anticipate further spending growth in the new year, bolstered by potential tax cuts and projected increases in refunds, which could add around $100B in consumer spending this year.
-Kevin Warsh has been selected by President Donald Trump to lead the Federal Reserve, a choice influenced by Warsh’s extensive background, including his previous role as a Fed governor. At 55, Warsh advocates for a "regime change" at the Fed, proposing a shift from the current Chair Jerome Powell’s “data-driven” approach to one that prioritizes government spending and money circulation as key determinants of inflation. Warsh criticizes the Powell Fed for being overly focused on outdated economic data, claiming it has failed and lost market confidence. Following his nomination, the initial response from financial markets was mild, indicating a general expectation for a short-term easing of interest rates. Warsh's potential nomination is seen by some investors as a stabilizing factor amidst Trump’s unpredictable policies, as evidenced by gold prices dropping and the dollar strengthening, implying a market belief in future interest rate hikes. This nomination may reassure skeptics of Trump's influence over the Fed while remaining attentive to inflation concerns.
Europe:
-President Trump’s comments regarding Greenland have intensified discussions in Europe about digital sovereignty, prompting European allies to consider reducing their reliance on American technology companies. This shift in focus has expanded from being primarily a concern of civil society and tech regulators to involving national security agencies, highlighting heightened fears of potential exploitation by the US government. France has announced plans to replace American videoconferencing tools with domestic alternatives as a precaution. Europe's path toward digital sovereignty will depend on distinguishing between areas of achievable independence and those that remain unrealistic, while also being motivated by national and economic security concerns in light of the broader implications of US technology dependence.
Emerging Markets:
-Wall Street strategists predict that emerging markets will continue to outperform in 2023, following a strong performance last year. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF has risen by 7.2% this year, compared to a 1% increase in the S&P 500. JP Morgan's Mislav Matejka highlighted several factors sustaining this optimism, such as expected interest rate cuts by many emerging market central banks, a weakening dollar, potential economic improvement in China, and favorable investments in artificial intelligence within emerging markets. Additionally, Goldman Sachs anticipates a 17% total return for MSCI Emerging Markets, supported by 19% earnings growth. Although valuations have increased, they remain lower than those in developed markets, creating favorable conditions for investors. Most investors are still underexposed to these markets.
Commodities:
-Gold and copper reached record highs, up 23% and 10% respectively in January 2026, with gold achieving its longest winning streak since March 2025. Silver also saw a significant increase, closing well above $100 after a 60% rise year to date. Julian Emanuel from Evercore ISI believes that the 2020 commodity supercycle is reinforced by chronic supply underinvestment and increasing policy-driven demand. Discussions with Jeff Currie highlight a positive outlook for commodities, especially metals, despite a temporary dip from 2023 to 2024. Supply challenges stem from investments diverted to tech and AI, alongside historical low returns and environmental constraints. Conversely, global demand drivers extend beyond AI, as countries prioritize energy security and self-sufficient supply chains amid deglobalization trends.
Streetwise:
-Wall Street refers to the term "debasement trade" in relation to the sharp increase in gold prices, which have surged from $3,400 to over $5,600 per troy ounce within months. Jack Hough suggests that despite this rise, we have not yet experienced monetary debasement, which is distinct from inflation. While inflation denotes a gradual price increase, debasement signifies a loss of credibility in a monetary system—illustrated by historical instances like Zimbabwe and Argentina. Hough emphasizes that debasement can begin with excessive government spending leading to chronic deficits and high inflation relative to interest rates, resulting in decreased investor confidence in government bonds and a preference for alternative currencies. This clear differentiation highlights the importance of understanding economic terms and their implications for monetary value stability.
