>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of March 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* HeidelbergCement Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 96.90 euros
* Orange Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 14 euros
* Plastic Omnium Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 17 euros
* Sanofi Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 115 euros
* SRV Group Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4 euros
* Talenom Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 9 euros

>>> Down
* Cambi Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 9 kroner
* Caterpillar Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $185
* CRH Cut to Add at Numis; PT 51.70 euros
* Nemetschek Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 71 euros
* Pernod Ricard Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 220 euros
* Roche Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 270 Swiss francs
* Vonovia Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 18 euros

>>> Initiation
* European Real Estate Could Still Have 50% Downside, Citi Says (+)
* FinecoBank Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Komplett Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 22 kroner
* Lepermislibre Rated New Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 4 euros (+)
* Siemens Energy Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT 24 euros
* VERBIO Vereinigte Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 57 euros
* Vitrolife Rated New Hold at Handelsbanken
* XPS Pensions Rated New Buy at Numis; PT 205 pence

>>> Call
* HeidelbergCement Raised at Jefferies on Decarbonization Benefits
* Orange Raised to Overweight at MS on Free Cash Flow Outlook
* Plastic Omnium Raised at JPM on LVP Forecast, Lighting Outlook (+)
* JPMorgan Cautious on US Spirits Sector, Downgrades Pernod Ricard
* Vonovia Cut to Underweight at Barclays Citing ‘Too Much’ Debt (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +3.3%
    • Watch European Banks as US Says System Is Sound; Futures Rise
  • ING (INN1 TH) +2.6%
  • BNP Paribas (BNP TH) +2.6%
  • Novozymes (NZM2 TH) +2.6%
  • Bawag (0B2 TH) +2.6%
  • SocGen (SGE TH) +2.5%
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +2.5%
  • HeidelbergCement (HEI TH) +2.4%
    • HeidelbergCement Raised at Jefferies on Decarbonization Benefits
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) +2.3%
    • WC Sentinel: Ram previews Ford Ranger-sized electric ute – report
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +2.2%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) -0.3%
    • Vonovia Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 18 euros
  • Eurofins Scientific (ESF0 TH) -0.4%
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) -1.2%
    • Stock slumped as much as 10% on Friday after capital raise and closed 2% lower

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +3.7%
    • Watch European Banks as US Says System Is Sound; Futures Rise
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +2.7%
  • HeidelbergCement (HEI TH) +2.5%
    • HeidelbergCement Raised at Jefferies on Decarbonization Benefits
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +2.5%
    • Siemens Energy Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT 24 euros
  • VW (VOW3 TH) +1.5%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) -0.1%
    • Vonovia Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 18 euros
MDAX:
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +2.2%
  • Evotec SE (EVT TH) +2.2%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.5%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.5%
  • TeamViewer SE (TMV TH) +1.4%
SDAX:
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +4.1%
    • VERBIO Vereinigte Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 57 euros
  • Varta (VAR1 TH) +3.8%
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +2.3%
    • Salzgitter Sees 2023 Sales About EU13B, Est. EU10.09B
  • Traton (8TRA TH) +2.2%
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +2.1%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) -0.8%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) -0.9%

FT : First Citizens to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank

First Citizens to buy failed Silicon Valley Bank
Family-owned company’s acquisition of tech-focused lender’s deposits and loans follows sale of collapsed Signature Bank

First Citizens Bank will buy much of Silicon Valley Bank, US regulators said, as they estimated the lender’s collapse would lead to $20bn of losses for a deposit insurance fund paid for by banks.

The Raleigh, North Carolina-based lender will take on all $119bn of deposits at SVB, the once high-flying lender to tech start-ups and their investors that failed this month. First Citizens will also take over SVB’s loans and operate its 17 branches, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said on Sunday evening.

First Citizens will buy about $72bn of SVB’s assets at a discount, leaving about $90bn of securities and other assets with the FDIC, which is acting as its receiver.

As it announced the deal, the FDIC said the failure of SVB could cost its Deposit Insurance Fund, paid for by member banks, about $20bn.

First Citizens, which calls itself the nation’s largest family-controlled bank, has been one of the biggest buyers of troubled banks in recent years.

Frank Holding Jr took over the job as chief executive of First Citizens, which was started by his grandfather in 1898, in 2008. He has since overseen nearly two dozen acquisitions in FDIC-assisted bank deals. Last year, First Citizens paid $2bn to acquire CIT, a lender to midsized corporations.

The addition of SVB’s business will significantly increase the size of First Citizens, which as of the end of last year had just over $100bn in assets and nearly $90bn in deposits, placing it as the US’s 36th largest bank, by assets. As of Friday, First Citizens bank had a market value of just over $8bn.

The deal follows a similar takeover announced a week ago for Signature Bank, the operations of which were sold to New York Community Bank-owned Flagstar.

As part of that deal, the FDIC was forced to retain $60bn worth of Signature’s loans. The federal agency has estimated that the failure and resolution of Signature bank could cost the FDIC’s insurance fund $2.5bn.

The plunge in SVB’s shares at the start of this month set off worries of brewing problems at regional lenders and the US financial system. On March 10, SVB was taken over by the FDIC after losses on its security portfolio and a failed equity raise spooked investors and depositors.

That kicked off an auction led by the FDIC for the failed lender. Along with a number of regional banks, private equity investors including Blackstone, Apollo, Carlyle, Sixth Street and HPS Investment Partners inspected SVB’s loans to consider possible offers, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

WSJ : First Citizens Acquires Much of Failed Silicon Valley Bank

First Citizens Acquires Much of Failed Silicon Valley Bank
Deal with federal regulators will make Raleigh-based firm one of the top 25 U.S. banks

First Citizens Bancshares Inc., FCNCB 1.85% one of the nation’s largest regional banks, is buying big pieces of Silicon Valley Bank more than two weeks after the lender’s collapse sent tremors through the banking system.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. said First Citizens FCNCB 1.85% is acquiring all of Silicon Valley Bank’s deposits, loans and branches, which will open Monday morning under the new ownership.

The purchase includes $119 billion in deposits and about $72 billion of SVB’s loans at a discount of $16.5 billion. Some $90 billion of SVB’s securities will remain in receivership.

Regulators took control of Santa Clara, Calif.-based SVB on March 10. The collapse sparked a panic that led to the weekend failure of Signature Bank and a dramatic intervention by financial regulators aimed at easing fears that depositors would flee smaller lenders.

The sale represents a milestone in regulatory efforts to clean up after two of the largest bank failures in history, at a time when investors are on edge about the health of the global financial system.

First Citizens, based in Raleigh, N.C., was the 30th largest U.S. bank as of Dec. 31, 2022, with $109 billion in assets, according to the Federal Reserve. Monday’s deal would put the firm in the top 25 U.S. banks in terms of assets.

The FDIC agreed to share any of First Citizens’ losses or potential gains on SVB’s commercial loans. Overall, the FDIC estimated the failure of SVB will cost a federal insurance fund it oversees about $20 billion, or roughly 10% of the bank’s assets before its failure.

“We look forward to building relationships with our new customers and positioning our company for continued success as we affirm our commitment to support the integrity of our nation’s banking system,” First Citizens Chief Executive Frank Holding Jr. said in a news release.

The worries about American banks center on regional lenders that are perceived to be subject to the threat of deposit flight. Both SVB and Signature had large amounts of uninsured deposits—or customers with more than the standard insurance cap of $250,000 per depositor.

The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index of commercial lenders is down 23% this year, compared with a 2.7% decline for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

First Republic Bank, a San Francisco lender that also has a large uninsured deposit base, has been in the crosshairs. Its shares have fallen 90% this year despite multiple efforts to bolster its health.

The firm has hired advisers to consider its options, but its bonds continue to trade at distressed levels. Investors will be watching First Republic and other banks closely when U.S. markets open Monday.

Officials both in the U.S. and in Europe have taken multiple steps to attempt to shore up confidence in the global financial system. The U.S. moved to back uninsured depositors of Signature and Silicon Valley following their failure, in a bid to ease the anxieties of similar depositors at other banks. The FDIC last week sold “substantially all” of the deposits and some of the loans of Signature Bank to a unit of New York Community Bancorp Inc.

Swiss officials a week ago engineered a takeover of troubled Credit Suisse Group AG by its rival, UBS Group AG , following a period of intense customer flight from Credit Suisse that raised concerns about the entire Swiss economy. Afterward, officials said they believed banks were safe and sound.

But signs that investors remain skittish are numerous.

On Friday, shares in giant German lender Deutsche Bank AG tumbled as much as 15% before closing 8.5% lower in Frankfurt, ending a day of declines for many of the largest European banks. The reason for the selloff wasn’t entirely clear, numerous investors said, given Deutsche Bank’s strong recent profitability and relatively low risk profile. Some said the declines reflected a mentality left over from the financial crisis.

At the same time, deposits continue to depart smaller U.S. banks following a surge in inflows during the Covid-19 pandemic. The outflows are going in part to the largest U.S. lenders, many of which are viewed as enjoying implicit government backing. The outflows also reflect, in part, the higher rates offered by money-market funds and short-term Treasury debt at a time when the Federal Reserve has sharply raised interest rates in a bid to quell high inflation.

Silicon Valley Bank failed because its core business of banking venture-capital firms and their startups was bleeding funds, creating a continuing cash need. But the firm had invested heavily in long-term bonds whose value was badly hurt by the Fed’s interest-rate increases over the past year, meaning it could sell them only at a loss.

When SVB tried to raise cash anyway, its depositors, largely business customers whose accounts were well above the standard $250,000 FDIC insurance limit, fled. Uninsured depositors across the system took notice and several other similarly-situated midsize banks such as Signature and First Republic, came under scrutiny.

SVB’s implosion marks the biggest test to date of the post-financial-crisis regulatory architecture designed to force banks to curtail risk and monitor it more closely. Officials have sought to reassure investors that the system remains strong.

“Fundamentally, the banking system is sound,” said Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, speaking on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. “The banking system has a lot of capital to be able to withstand these pressures.”

Risks to SVB’s financial condition were apparent for months before its failure. The bank’s parent company disclosed that the market value of its held-to-maturity bonds was $15.9 billion less than their balance sheet value at the end of September 2022. That gap was slightly more than SVB’s $15.8 billion of total equity at the time, a measure of the bank’s net worth.

Regulators will likely spend months, if not years, getting to the bottom of what happened at SVB and why its banking supervisors didn’t move quickly or decisively enough to stop its problems from snowballing into a crisis.

The Fed, FDIC and Treasury Department appear to have limited the contagion by moving on March 12 to use emergency powers to guarantee uninsured deposits at SVB and Signature, while also setting up a new Fed lending program to allow banks to meet withdrawal requests.

Fed Chair Jay Powell has unveiled an internal Fed review of what went wrong, to be completed by May. Lawmakers plan to hold hearings beginning Tuesday.

Already, the Fed is rethinking a number of its own rules related to midsize banks in response to the tumult, potentially extending restrictions that currently only apply to the biggest Wall Street firms. A raft of tougher capital and liquidity requirements are under review, as well as steps to beef up annual “stress tests” that assess banks’ ability to weather a hypothetical recession, The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month.

The rules could target firms with between $100 billion to $250 billion in assets, which at present escape some of the toughest requirements. There are about two dozen banks within the range.

The Fed was already reviewing a number of its regulations, led by Michael Barr, the central bank’s point person on banking supervision. But this month’s banking crisis has caused officials to re-evaluate parts of their review and to refocus their efforts on smaller institutions.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of March 2023

>>> Up
* HeidelbergCement Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 96.90 euros
* Orange Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 14 euros
* Plastic Omnium Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 17 euros
* Sanofi Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 115 euros
* SRV Group Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 4 euros
* Talenom Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 9 euros

>>> Down
* Cambi Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 9 kroner
* Caterpillar Cut to Underperform at Baird; PT $185
* CRH Cut to Add at Numis; PT 51.70 euros
* Nemetschek Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 71 euros
* Pernod Ricard Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 220 euros
* Roche Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 270 Swiss francs
* Vonovia Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 18 euros

>>> Initiation
* FinecoBank Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley
* Komplett Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 22 kroner
* Siemens Energy Rated New Buy at HSBC; PT 24 euros
* VERBIO Vereinigte Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 57 euros
* Vitrolife Rated New Hold at Handelsbanken
* XPS Pensions Rated New Buy at Numis; PT 205 pence

>>> Call
* HeidelbergCement Raised at Jefferies on Decarbonization Benefits
* Orange Raised to Overweight at MS on Free Cash Flow Outlook
* JPMorgan Cautious on US Spirits Sector, Downgrades Pernod Ricard

>>> What to look at today - 27th of March 2023

US and European stock futures climbed while a benchmark of Asian shares fluctuated in cautious trading as investors weighed the risk of recession and its impact on interest rates. Major currencies held to narrow ranges.  Contracts for Euro Stoxx 50 advanced about 1% and those for the S&P 500 rose 0.5%. An Asian gauge swung between gains and losses, weighed down by Hong Kong stocks. China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. plunged as much as 7.7% on lower earnings while Chinese developers headed for a third straight drop after Greenland Holdings Group warned of further slowing in housing.  Sentiment in China was also dented by industrial profits data registering a decline in the first two months of the year as factories had yet to fully recover from a Covid-induced slump. Traders are in for another bumpy week, with the banking crisis casting a shadow over markets. On top of that, multiple Federal Reserve officials will speak, a key measure of US inflation is due and there are renewed geopolitical tensions with Russia to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. Fed Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said over the weekend that bank turmoil had increased the risk of a US recession. Authorities are said to be considering expanding an emergency lending facility for US banks in ways that would give First Republic Bank more time to shore up its balance sheet. Yet investors in the bond market already see the wider damage in the sector running its course. They’re piling into wagers that a recession is around the corner and bets on any further interest rate hikes this year are being axed while expectations for rate cuts ramp up.  In the US stock market Friday, after a slide that reached 1% in the first hour of trading, the S&P 500 snapped back and notched its second straight week of gains. A gauge of US financial heavyweights climbed from its lowest level since November 2020. Top US regulators said after a meeting Friday that while some banks are coming under stress, the overall financial system is still sound. First Citizens Bank & Trust on Monday was reported to agree to buy all deposits and loans of SVB Financial Group’s Silicon Valley Bank after it was seized by the regulators. Global authorities continued trying to instill calm in financial markets following the recent failure of some US regional lenders and the near-collapse of banking giant Credit Suisse Group AG before its government-brokered takeover by rival UBS Group AG. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde told European Union leaders that the region’s banking sector is strong, according to people familiar with the matter. oil was little changed after a weekly gain. Gold fell.

Nikkei +0.48% Hang Seng -0.97% CSI -0.71% Shanghai -0.76% Shenzen -0.39%

Eur$ 1.0765 CNH 6.8789 CNY 6.8784 JPY 130.83 GBP 1.2235 CHF 0.9187 RUB 77.2784 TRY 19.0862 WTI$ 69.42 +0.23% Gold 1,973 -0.29% BTC 27,900 +0.34% ETH 1,763 +0.05%

S&P +0.49% Nasdaq +0.45% EuroStoxx +1.13% FTSE +0.77% Dax +1.04% SMI +1.46%

Macro :
- Credit Suisse’s Infamous ETN Misadventure May Be Limping to End
- Iraq Wins Key Kurdish Oil Arbitration Case Against Turkey
- First Citizens Is Said to Near Deal for Silicon Valley Bank
- Norway’s Largest Opposition Party to Reject Salmon Farm Tax Plan

Keep an eye on :
- BABA US : Alibaba Jumps After SCMP Reports Jack Ma Returns to China
- AI FP : American Airlines to Temporarily Suspend Route Due to Boeing Dreamliner Delays -- WSJ
- BA/ LN : BAE Systems, Scientific Research Corp awarded $536.7M U.S. Navy contract
- CLNX SM : Cellnex Board Set to Meet as Billionaire Chris Hohn Takes Aim
- CINE LN : Elliott Eyes Cineworld Operations in Eastern Europe, Israel: Sky
- ABO GY : Clearvise Said It Terminated MOU With Tion Renewables
- CSGN SW : Hedge Fund Marathon Made Quick $30 Million on Credit Suisse Bet
- CSGN SW : Credit Suisse Faces Possible Probe, Disciplinary Proceedings
- DNO NO : DNO Told by KRG to Temporarily Stop Supply to Iraq-Turkey Pipe
- ENT LN : Entain Confirmed as Preferred Bidder for NZ TAB: Australian
- LOOMIS SS : Loomis Says Kristian Ackeby Resigned as CFO
- LSEG LN : 50 Years Since Women Trailblazers Joined London Stock Exchange
- LHA GY : Germany Faces Travel Chaos Amid Lufthansa Snags, Strike
- ML FP : Yokohama Rubber Rises After EU Clearance for TWS Acquisition
- BMPS IM : Italy to Seek Confirmation of Lovaglio as Monte Paschi CEO
- NEX LN : UK West Midlands Bus Drivers End Strikes After Pay Offer: Union
- NOVN SW : Novartis Kisqali Phase III Natalee Trial Meets Primary Endpoint
- PHARM NA : Pharming Soars After Saying FDA Approved Joenja for APDS (+20%)
- SZG GY : Salzgitter Sees 2023 Sales About EU13B, Est. EU10.09B
- SMT LN : Odey Scales Back Bets Against Scottish Mortgage: FT
- STAN LN : Stanchart to Sell Jordan Unit to Arab Jordan Investment Bank
- STORB SS : Sweden’s Storskogen Cut Deeper Into Junk Territory by Moody’s
- TION GY : EQT Active Core Infra to Buy Majority Stake in Tion Renewables
- TION GY : Clearvise Said It Terminated MOU With Tion Renewables
- TWTR US : Musk’s Stock Grants Value Twitter at $20 Billion: Information
- UBSG SW : Over 80% of Swiss Want UBS Spinoff of Credit Suisse Bank: Poll
- UBSG SW : Swiss Politicians Pitch Credit Suisse Deal to a Skeptical Public
- UCG IM : UniCredit Leans Toward Repaying AT1 Bond in Early June: Reuters
- VAR1 GY : Varta Agrees With Banks on Comprehensive Restructuring

FT : Nepal was heaven for independent trekkers — so why is it banning them?

Nepal was heaven for independent trekkers — so why is it banning them?
Starting this week, new rules prohibit walking the country’s mountain trails unless accompanied by a licensed guide

Almost 30 years ago I travelled to Nepal’s famous Annapurna region for the first time. Worn out from a research trip to the dusty Tibetan plateau, a visit to the lush southern side of the Himalayas seemed the perfect antidote. In those days you needed a trekking permit from the immigration department but acquiring it was no great chore, more a fun way to experience Nepal’s happy-go-lucky bureaucracy. I took a local bus to Pokhara, then a sleepy lakeside town, and spent a few days walking the rollercoaster paths around the pretty villages of Ghandruk and Chhomrong.

Walking easy, well-maintained paths within sight of the world’s highest mountains was blissful. When I’d had enough for the day, I’d stop at a locally owned lodge, no reservation required and consequently no need for a heavy rucksack stuffed with food and camping equipment. Nepal has long been especially well set up for such trips, with its network of paths that have been used as trading routes for centuries, and frequent tea houses providing food and shelter along the way.

I have a few golden memories: a pre-dawn walk up Poon Hill to see the sun’s first rays light up the summit of Dhaulagiri, the world’s seventh-highest mountain. And languishing in hot springs next to the fast-flowing Modi river, surrounded by trees. If that all sounds free and easy, trust me: it was.

From April 1, however, such easy-going experiences will no longer be allowed. The Nepal Tourism Board (NTB), which these days regulates the trekking industry, announced in early March, just before the start of this year’s spring season, that foreign trekkers like me — or, as Nepali tourism authorities call us, “free independent travellers” — will only be issued with trekking permits if they hire a licensed guide. Independent trekking in popular national parks and conservation areas, including Annapurna, Langtang, Makalu-Barun and Kangchenjunga, will be over.

The NTB’s director Mani R Lamichhane says the two main objectives behind the ban are “to make trekking in Nepal safer and to create more employment opportunities in the country”. The US embassy has long advised against solo trekking after a string of widely reported disappearances, including that of 23-year-old Aubrey Sacco from Colorado, who vanished in 2010 while walking in the Langtang National Park.

The decision may come to be seen as an inflection point in Nepal’s development as a tourist destination. As a climber and trekker, it’s one I mourn. Across the Himalaya, the freedom of the hills is disappearing under red tape. It’s telling that Nepal’s authorities didn’t bother to consult any of the international outdoor bodies that represent those tourists who will foot the bill. On the other hand, as someone who understands the depth of poverty in Nepal, I can appreciate the need to create jobs.

The new rule has been widely welcomed by the industry. “It will create more job opportunities for the locals and also contribute to the overall safety of travellers,” Shiva Dhakal, owner of the award-winning Royal Mountain Travel told me. “It will also help prevent any negative news of weather disasters and decrease the need for search and rescue, which will help position [Nepal] as a safe destination to trek.”

Experienced hikers who like the freedom of travelling unaccompanied and prefer to take responsibility for their own safety may feel the glory days of exploring Nepal are over and will go elsewhere.

Increasingly though, Nepal’s trekking market is dominated by the much larger number of less experienced tourists buying organised trekking packages to popular destinations such as Everest Base Camp — adventures that come with guides as standard. (Ironically, the Everest region, with its strong local government, may still allow independent trekkers; it’s not yet clear.) That process has accelerated with the growth in the Indian and Chinese market.

Yet doubts remain that making guides mandatory will improve safety. Nepal will now need to train a lot more trekking guides. The Nepal Mountaineering Association runs a guide-training programme that a top British training instructor with long experience of working in Nepal described to me as approaching international standards. But the numbers going through this scheme are tiny. The majority of Nepal’s trekking guides take a government course at the Nepal Academy of Hotel Management and Tourism, whose curriculum leaves graduates woefully underprepared for the challenging Himalayan environment.

Nepal’s tourism ministry, which also oversees aviation, already has a shaky safety record. In January, a Yeti Airlines ATR 72-500 crashed on approach to Pokhara airport, killing all 72 on board, the latest in a string of fatal air crashes. The trekking industry will now be under the same scrutiny.

Nepal’s worst trekking disaster occurred in the post-monsoon season of October 2014, when Cyclone Hudhud dumped six feet of snow on the Annapurna region in 24 hours. At least 43 people died, slightly more than half of them Nepali trekking guides and other tourism workers. The true number has never been firmly established. That tragedy exposed the shortcomings of an industry that offers a warm welcome but sometimes only a facsimile of competence. We’ll soon find out how well its lessons were learnt.