TechCrunch : FTX execs blew through $8B; testimony reveals how

FTX execs blew through $8B; testimony reveals how

Sam Bankman-Fried and other FTX executives spent $8 billion worth of customer funds on real estate, venture capital investments, campaign donations, endorsement deals and even a sports stadium, according to testimony from former senior FTX executive Nishad Singh.

Singh’s testimony, which kicked off the third week of Bankman-Fried’s trial, provides fresh details of exactly where that money went.

Singh, who has already pled guilty to fraud, money laundering and violation of campaign finance laws, said Monday that he learned of the massive hole in Alameda’s books as a result of a coding error that “prevented the correct accounting” of user deposits by around $8 billion.

Singh’s testimony helps corroborate the statements given by three previous prosecution witnesses, all of whom were in Bankman-Fried’s inner circle: FTX CTO Gary Wang, Alameda CEO Caroline Ellison and FTX engineer Adam Yedidia. While Wang and Ellison have pled guilty, each witness has pointed to Bankman-Fried as the orchestrator of fraud and money laundering.

Singh said that even after learning about the hole, “implicitly and explicitly, I green-lit transactions that I knew must have been digging the hole deeper and therefore coming from customer funds.”

Singh went on to describe Bankman-Fried’s spending as “excessive.” He said that he often learned about large spends after the fact, and that his expressions of concern weren’t taken seriously.

“I also would express that I felt kind of embarrassed or ashamed of how much it all wreaked of excess and flashiness,” said Singh. “It didn’t align with what I thought we were building a company for.”

Where the money went
Prosecutor Nicolas Roos and Singh went through spreadsheets detailing different ways Alameda spent the $8 billion in customer funds. Singh testified that Bankman-Fried was “in general the one making the final decision on investments and investment team decisions as a whole.”

In addition to going over a $1 billion on Genesis Digital Assets, a crypto mining firm in Kazakhstan, and $500 million on Anthropic, an AI company focused on safety, the prosecution focused on Alameda’s $200 million investment into K5 Global, a venture firm led by investor Michael Kives who is known for his extensive network.

That network seemed to impress Bankman-Fried deeply. After attending a Super Bowl Party hosted by K5 in Los Angeles, the former crypto mogul told Singh that he had met “the most impressive collection of people he ever had in one location.” Faces at the party included Hilary Clinton, Katy Perry, Orlando Bloom, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jeff Bezos, Kendall and Kris Jenner and Kate Hudson.

Bankman-Fried had proposed a term sheet to Singh and Wang one night that laid out hundreds of millions of dollars of onuses to Kives and Bryan Baum, co-founder and managing partner of K5. The sheet also proposed up to $1 billion long-term capital to give to the VC firm, according to Singh.

“We can get from them essentially infinite connections,” wrote Bankman-Fried in a letter to FTX leadership that was shared at Monday’s trial. “I think that if we asked them to arrange a dinner with us, Elon, Obama, Rihanna and Zuckerberg in a month, they would probably succeed.”

Singh said he expressed concern about partnering with K5 and giving them such substantial funds, which would be “really toxic to FTX and Alameda culture.” He said that “politicking and social climbing was not going to be rewarded, and here we were rewarding people in exorbitant amounts.”

The former FTX executive suggested that Bankman-Fried use his own money, not FTX’s, to make some of these investments. Those protestations didn’t yield results, according to the spreadsheet, which showed the K5 deal went through Alameda’s venture arm.

Bankman-Fried also believed that endorsement deals and even “unpaid partnerships with celebrities” would help increase FTX’s influence to propel its success, said Singh.

To that end, about $205 million of that $8 billion chunk was spent renaming the Miami Heat stadium to FTX Arena. Another $150 million was spent to endorse the MLB. Other items on a spreadsheet shown to the jury show FTX paid out $1.13 billion in exchange for endorsements from basketball player Steph Curry, video game developer Riot, Seinfeld writer Larry David to endorse FTX in a Super Bowl ad, football star Tom Brady and model Giselle Bündchen, with whom FTX was coordinating on some philanthropic efforts, according to Singh. .

Singh’s testimony also revealed a range of properties that had been purchased with the funds, including a $30 million penthouse in the Bahamas that Singh said was “too ostentatious.”

Bankman-Fried has also donated tens of millions to election campaigns.

The former FTX executive, who also went to high school with Bankman-Fried and was a close friend of his brother, testified that he expressed concern about the company’s spending, but was usually blown off.

Singh recalled one instance where Bankman-Fried got visibly angry with him and said that people like him were “sowing seeds of doubt in the company decisions” and were “the real insidious problem here.”

“It was pretty humiliating,” said Singh.

Where did this $8 billion hole come from?
Singh’s testimony aligned with Yedidia’s that states in June 2022, the executives learned that Alameda owed $8 billion worth of FTX customer money after Ellison shared a Google Doc displaying the “extremely negative” balance.

Singh told the court this hole was due to a bug that Yedidia accidentally introduced into the system in 2021. The bug “prevented correct accounting for fiat@FTX.com’s balances on specific types of withdrawals,” said Singh. Fiat@FTX.com was an internal accounting system that recorded user deposits.

On top of this, Singh testified that he built out systems on FTX that gave Alameda “special privileges” not afforded to other users. A feature called “allow negative” let Alameda trade, borrow and withdraw FTX funds in excess of its balance and collateral amounts, according to Singh. He testified that he coded an initial version of the feature in 2019 at Bankman-Fried and Wang’s advisement.

A later version of this code allowed Alameda to borrow from FTX without having tis collateral liquidated. In effect, it could “withdraw money that it didn’t have,” meaning it could “lose money” that “belonged to customers,” Singh said.

By June 2022, Alameda had built up its own $2.7 billion deficit on the FTX platform.

“This seemed like a real abuse of a feature that until this point I believe was serving FTX, not hurting it,” said Singh.

Alameda at this point also owed $8 billion in user funds to FTX that it no longer had on hand. In total, the negative account balance and accounting bug contributed to a $11 billion hole on FTX’s balance sheet, Singh testified.

FT : Activist fund targets Japanese rail company with $12bn stake in Tokyo Disne

Activist fund targets Japanese rail company with $12bn stake in Tokyo Disneyland owner
Palliser’s campaign comes at a time companies in the country are under intensifying pressure to raise corporate value

A Japanese rail operator holding a nearly $12bn stake in the owner of Tokyo Disneyland is being targeted by a UK-based fund, as part of intensifying efforts by shareholders to release value trapped in corporate Japan.

Palliser Capital’s campaign comes at a time when Japanese companies are under intensifying pressure to raise value, increase their price-to-book ratios and improve governance.

Investors have sharpened their focus on large crossholdings of shares between groups in Japan and other non-core holdings that could unlock value if sold.

Palliser, a company led by former employees of activist fund Elliott Management, holds a 1.6 per cent stake in Keisei Electric Railway, which runs trains around Tokyo and includes one of the main lines from Narita airport into the city centre. Keisei has a 22 per cent stake in Oriental Land, the ¥8.58tn ($57bn) listed property group which owns Tokyo Disneyland.

Keisei’s stake in Oriental was valued at roughly $1.3bn on its balance sheet for the full year that ended in April due to accounting conventions in Japan, even though its current market value is close to $12bn, an amount twice the current market capitalisation of the railway company itself.

The fund is pushing for the railway company to reduce its stake in Oriental Land and use the proceeds from the sale to focus on the core business of running and modernising its railway, according to people with knowledge of the situation.

The fund is expected to deliver a presentation on its plans for a Keisei campaign on Tuesday at the 13D Monitor Active-Passive Investor Summit, a hedge fund activism conference in New York.

Japanese authorities are also trying to push companies to improve governance standards and lift corporate values. The chief executive of the Japan Exchange Group, the company which controls the Tokyo Stock Exchange, said last week that it would be setting up a “name and shame” regime designed to improve companies’ capital efficiency.

Palliser’s presentation says that the distortion caused by the accounting treatment makes it impossible for Keisei’s management to properly allocate capital.

Keisei did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

As Keisei’s eighth-largest shareholder, Palliser has been engaged in what it describes in the presentation as “patient, respectful and collaborative engagement”, with Keisei’s management. Palliser’s stake in Keisei allows it to make a shareholder proposal at the next annual meeting in June.

Yet the rail company has been reluctant to reduce its stake in Oriental Land, which it has told Palliser is not non-core and which it holds because the businesses are complementary, according to sources close to Palliser.

John Seagrim, a Japan equities broker at CLSA said that the Keisei stake in Oriental Land was one of the biggest valuation anomalies in corporate Japan.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2023 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Airbus Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 150 euros
* Capricorn Energy Raised to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 250 pence (+)
* Fidelity National Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $65
* Mondelez Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $75 (+)
* SCA Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 147 kronor
* Unieuro Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN); PT 10 euros (+)
* Viasat Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30

>>> Down
* FinecoBank Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 13.90 euros (+)
* HSBC Cut to Sell at SocGen; PT 575 pence
* Italgas Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 5.70 euros (+)
* Jupiter Cut to Hold at Numis; PT 88 pence (+)
* Munters Cut to Hold at Nordea
* UPM-Kymmene Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 35 euros

>>> Initiation
* Aena Rated New Buy at Equita; PT 177 euros (+)
* Amazon Rated New Buy at Stifel on Scale and Margin Upside
* Amgen Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $300
* ASML Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
* Barry Callebaut Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Deutsche Boerse Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Freeport Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $42
* Ivanhoe Electric/US Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
* Kemira Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 21 euros
* KLA Corp Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
* Lindt & Spruengli Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Stellantis Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 22.50 euros
* Surgical Science New Buy at Berenberg on Strong Positioning

>>> Call
* Airbus Raised at Jefferies on Operating Leverage, Buyback Scope
* Amgen Resumed Equal-Weight at MS Following Horizon Deal Close (+)
* ASML Rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, Applied Rated Outperform
* Deutsche Boerse Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, Earnings Subdued
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Buy Bonds, Gold as Stocks Face Risk
* Lindt Underweight, Barry Callebaut Equal-Weight: Morgan Stanley
* Moneysupermarket’s Insurance Segment Drives Beat, RBC Says (+)
* Stellantis Rated New Overweight at Barclays on Earnings Growth (+)
* Viasat Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan on Cost Discipline (+)

FT : Why EU plans to tap Russia’s frozen assets are moving forward

Why EU plans to tap Russia’s frozen assets are moving forward

Defrosting
European efforts to tap into the revenues from immobilised Russian central bank assets received high-profile backing last week from Janet Yellen, the US treasury secretary.

Meetings in Brussels and Luxembourg today will show whether this can help overcome the difficulties of bringing the plans to fruition and funnelling the cash to Ukraine, writes Sam Fleming.

Context: The G7 allies froze more than $300bn in Russian central bank reserves following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February last year. The majority of those assets is caught in Europe, suspended in Brussels-headquartered Euroclear, the world’s largest clearinghouse.

Rather than seize the assets, some officials have advocated a levy on the excess, or windfall, profit made by Euroclear.

EU experts will meet in Brussels today to discuss how to move things forward, following a much-needed thumbs up by the G7 last week of the plans. EU finance ministers are holding separate talks with Yellen in Luxembourg today, during which they will also touch on the issue.

Belgium last week said it would use the corporate tax it already collects on Euroclear’s profits from the Russian assets to create a €1.7bn fund dedicated to Ukraine.

Mairead McGuinness, the financial services commissioner, told the FT that the move by premier Alexander De Croo’s government was “the start of something significant”, and that it was now up to member states to discuss further steps.

“We need to make Russia pay and this is the start of that process,” McGuinness said.

France’s finance minister Bruno Le Maire told the FT last week that he wanted experts to work on the plan through the end of the year, with the hopes of already using revenues from the Russian assets next year to support Ukraine.

But the discussions remain legally complex. The European Central Bank is still worried that if the EU seizes profits made on assets held by a foreign state, other central banks will drop their euro-denominated assets for fear of suffering the same fate — and endanger the whole currency.

Representatives of the ECB will attend the expert meeting in Brussels today.

While the G7 acted with extraordinary speed when it first froze the Russian assets, reaching a deal to tap into the proceeds would be far more laborious.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +5.4%
    • Rolls-Royce Confirms up to 2,500 Job Cuts Worldwide
  • Nel (D7G TH) +2.3%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +1.1%
    • Airbus Raised at Jefferies on Operating Leverage, Buyback Scope
  • Novo Nordisk (NOV TH) +0.9%
    • China Weight-Loss Drug Stocks Lose Shine on ‘Misleading’ Claims
  • Just Eat Takeaway (T5W TH) -0.6%
  • Mowi (PND TH) -0.6%
  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) -1.9%
  • Ericsson (ERCB TH) -9.1%
    • Ericsson Says Weakness Persists in Quarter After Sales Miss (1)

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +1.5%
    • Airbus Raised at Jefferies on Operating Leverage, Buyback Scope
MDAX:
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.1%
SDAX:
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) +4.5%
    • Adtran Holdings Prelim 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
  • Draegerwerk (DRW3 TH) +4.3%
    • Draegerwerk Forecasts FY Results
  • SFC Energy (F3C TH) +2.7%
    • EQS-News: SFC Energy AG: Deutsche Telekom subsidiary Power & Air Solutions secures communication technology with emission-free f
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) +2.4%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) +1.2%
  • Aroundtown (AT1 TH) -1%
  • Fielmann (FIE TH) -1.6%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2023

>>> Up
* Airbus Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 150 euros
* Fidelity National Raised to Outperform at Wolfe; PT $65
* SCA Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 147 kronor
* Viasat Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30

>>> Down
* HSBC Cut to Sell at SocGen; PT 575 pence
* Munters Cut to Hold at Nordea
* UPM-Kymmene Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 35 euros

>>> Initiation
* Amazon Rated New Buy at Stifel on Scale and Margin Upside
* Amgen Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $300
* ASML Rated New Strong Buy at Raymond James
* Barry Callebaut Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Deutsche Boerse Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Freeport Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $42
* Ivanhoe Electric/US Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $18
* Kemira Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 21 euros
* KLA Corp Rated New Outperform at Raymond James
* Lindt & Spruengli Rated New Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Stellantis Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 22.50 euros
* Surgical Science New Buy at Berenberg on Strong Positioning

>>> Call
* Airbus Raised at Jefferies on Operating Leverage, Buyback Scope
* ASML Rated Strong Buy at Raymond James, Applied Rated Outperform
* Deutsche Boerse Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, Earnings Subdued
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Buy Bonds, Gold as Stocks Face Risk
* Lindt Underweight, Barry Callebaut Equal-Weight: Morgan Stanley
* UPM-Kymmene Downgraded to Hold at Jefferies as Nears Fair Value

>>> What to look at today - 17th of October 2023

Treasuries declined as ongoing diplomatic efforts to help prevent the Israel-Hamas war from expanding into a wider conflict reduced demand for haven assets.  Yields on the US 10-year benchmark climbed higher than 4.7%, while those on the 30-year rose more than four basis points, with the selloff steepening the yield curve further. Gold fell for a second day, as did oil.  US President Joe Biden is set to visit Israel as part of a push to prevent the war from spreading. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also returned to Israel to meet Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, after talks with Arab governments. Russian President Vladimir Putin held a call with the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Iran and the Palestinian Authority, and the Kremlin said there was a “unanimous opinion” on the need for a cease-fire. He spoke separately with Netanyahu. Elsewhere, the dollar steadied after falling in the previous session, while the kiwi was the worst performer among Group-of-10 peers as the nation reported slower-than-expected inflation. In stocks, an Asian equity gauge snapped a two-day decline while contracts for US equities slipped after both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 rose on Monday. Rio Tinto Plc climbed the most in a month following a report which showed the miner recorded a higher-than-expected increase in copper production for the third quarter.  Japan’s auction of 20-year government bonds registered lower-than-expected cut-off price, indicating weak demand amid speculation the central bank will end negative interest rates sooner rather than later.  Country Garden Holdings Co. is also on the radar as the clock is ticking for the distressed developer to pay interest on a dollar bond. The builder, which has become a symbol of China’s broader property debt crisis, must pay a $15.4 million coupon by the end of a 30-day grace period Oct. 17-18 before a default can be called. Another key focus in Asia is China’s Belt and Road forum, which Russia’s Putin is expected to attend. Investors looking to earnings season for a dose of good news are hanging their hopes on a familiar group: Big Tech. The five biggest companies in the S&P 500 — Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp., Alphabet Inc., Amazon.com Inc. and Nvidia Corp. — account for about a quarter of the benchmark’s market capitalization. Their earnings are projected to jump 34% from a year earlier on average, according to analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence.  Bitcoin edged lower after surging as much as 10% as BlackRock Inc. said its application for an exchange-traded fund that invests directly in the cryptocurrency is still under review.  US After Hours Quiet after-hours session; MRO +1.4% up on sales agreement with Glencore; NTCT -17.7% down on guidance.

Nikkei +1% Hang Seng +0.59% CSI +0.18% Shanghai +0.05% Shenzen -0.33%

Eur$ 1.0545 CNH 7.3183 CNY 7.3136 JPY 149.60 GBP 1.2194 CHF 0.9016 RUB 97.3976 TRY 27.9000 WTI$ 86.37 Gold 1915 -0.26% BTC 28,200 -0.72% ETH 1588 -0.03%

S&P -0.12% Nasdaq -0.13% EuroStoxx -0.02% FTSE -0.10% Dax +0.08% SMI -0.22%

Macro :
- Bitcoin’s 10% Jump to $30,000 Hints at ‘Playbook’ for ETF Era
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Buy Bonds, Gold as Stocks Face Risk
- Former Apollo Partner Strong Starts Infrastructure, Energy Firm
- Israel Latest: Minister Warns of Long War as Biden Weighs Visit
- Morgan Stanley Strategists Raise Poland Stock Exposure, Cut UAE

Keep an eye on :
- ABVX FP : Abivax Aims to Issue ~18.7M Shares in ADS Offering
- ADP FP : Aeroports de Paris SA Sept. Passenger Traffic +15.1%
- ADJ GY : Adler: Avega Willing to Audit Standalone 2022, 2023 Statements
- AF FP : EU Seeks to Tighten Rules for Airline Mergers: FT
- ARAMI FP : Aramis Names Fabien Geerolf CFO
- ARGX BB : Argenx May Gain Up to 10% on Rare Disease Readout: Wells Fargo
- BG AV : Bawag 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Est., Will Assess Payouts
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas Insurance Unit to Buy Italy’s BCC Vita: Corriere
- DRW3 GY : Draegerwerk Forecasts FY Results
- FGR FP : Eiffage Consortium Wins EV Battery Plant Deal Worth ~€100M
- EQT SS : EQT-Backed Health Payments Software Maker Waystar Files for IPO
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Sees 4Q Adj. Ebita Margin at Around 10%, Says Weak Market to Persist in Quarter After Sales Miss
- EAPI FP : Sanofi’s EuroAPI a Rare Loser Among European Spinoffs: ECM Watch
- FAST NA : Fastned Raises €30.4M in New Bonds to Expand Network in Europe
- RACE IM : Ferrari Share Price Tops €300 For the First Time
- FRAS LN : Frasers Group Reaches Deal to Acquire SportScheck: Sky
- GLEN LN : Marathon Oil in LNG Sales Pact with Glencore for Alba Gas
- GSF NO : Grieg Seafood Prelim 3Q Harvest About 12,200 Metric Tons
- DEC FP : Vista Outdoor Plunges on Cut FY Sales Guide, Estimate Miss
- JUP LN : Jupiter Assets Under Management GBP50.8B
- KNIN SW : SATS, Kuehne+Nagel Collaborate on Value Chain Improvements
- LONN SW : Lonza Sees ‘24 Growth Offset By One-Offs; ‘High Twenties’ Margin
- MFEB IM : MediaForEurope to Group Class A, B Shares, Change Co.’s Isins
- MEDX SW : Medmix to Take 25% Stake in Aardex to Bolster Drug Delivery
- MITRA BB : Mithra Removes Proposal to Change Pay Policy at Holder Meeting
- NOD NO : Nordic Semiconductor 4Q Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
- RI FP : Pernod Mulls Shipping New Scotch to Slake India’s Whiskey Thirst
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto 3Q Mined Copper Production Beats Estimates
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce to Layoff 2,500 Jobs as Soon as Tuesday: Sky
- TIT IM : Italy Reduces Phone Carriers’ Antitrust Fines in Billing Probe
- UMI BB : Umicore Expands Canadian EV Battery Plant, Gets Grants (Oct. 16)
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Brand Cost-Cutting Plan Runs Behind Schedule: Reuters
- WBD IM : Webuild's MSCI ESG Rating Raised to AA from A
- MF FP : Wendel Offers €383M For 51% Stake in IK Partners: M&A Snapshot

WSJ : China Property Bonds Looked Cheap at 20 Cents on the Dollar. They Weren’t.

China Property Bonds Looked Cheap at 20 Cents on the Dollar. They Weren’t.
The market looked attractive after bond prices fell two years ago. They are even lower today.

China’s property market meltdown created a multibillion-dollar opportunity for distressed-debt investors. It hasn’t paid off.

The country’s real-estate sector is reeling from a yearslong slowdown that has put strains on the economy, sparked widespread protests and triggered defaults on around $81 billion of Chinese developers’ international bonds between 2021 and 2022, according to figures from S&P Global Ratings.

The wave of defaults in the sector proved irresistible to many distressed-debt funds. These funds buy the bonds or loans of struggling companies, often at a price well below face value, and negotiate with the companies to work out a debt restructuring plan. They flooded into the market two years ago, including buying many of the outstanding bonds of developers China Evergrande Group EGRNQ 0.00%increase; green up pointing triangle, KWG Group 1813 2.74%increase; green up pointing triangle and China Aoyuan Group 3883 -1.71%decrease; red down pointing triangle, according to a Hong Kong-based trader.

But the distressed-debt playbook isn’t working in China.

Dozens of Chinese property companies have defaulted on their bonds over the last two years, but only a handful have paid investors back any money. Last month, Evergrande abandoned a $35 billion debt restructuring plan that it had finally agreed with some of its investors after protracted negotiations. China Aoyuan still hasn’t completed a deal more than 18 months after it defaulted.

Most dollar bonds sold by Chinese property companies are trading below 10 cents on the dollar, and several are trading at less than 5 cents, according to research firm CreditSights.

“The market is showing all the signs that it’s lost patience,” said Jean-Charles Sambor, head of emerging markets fixed income at BNP Asset Management. “When you see these bonds now trading below 10 cents on the dollar, it tells you that investors expect a very low recovery, or total liquidation in some cases.”

Investors holding defaulted bonds have historically got back more than 30 cents on the dollar, according to global figures from Moody’s Investors Service, a credit ratings company.

Investment firms including Vontobel Asset Management in Zurich, SC Lowy in Hong Kong and New York-based Apollo Global Management bought Evergrande’s bonds in late 2021. At the time, one of its most actively traded bonds was worth around 20 cents on the dollar. The same bond is now trading at around 2.5 cents on the dollar.

Vontobel has closed its position in Evergrande, said a spokesperson. SC Lowy sold most of the Chinese property bonds it held last year, according to Michel Lowy, its co-founder and chief executive. Apollo didn’t respond to a request for comment.

A prolonged slowdown in the property sector is making it difficult for companies to estimate the cash flows they will need to pay investors back in the future. In September, sales at China’s 100 largest developers were down almost 30% from last year, according to data provider China Real Estate Information Corp.

Shimao Group, a Shanghai-based developer, recently changed the terms of a planned debt restructuring, asking investors to accept a lower recovery rate because of the weak property market, according to a person familiar with the matter. Last week, the company said its contracted sales fell three-quarters in September from the same month last year.

“Given the uncertainty and state of the property sales, I’m not sure anyone can figure out what a sustainable business model looks like, which is why it’s taking so long,” said Diwakar Vijayvergia, a portfolio manager at AllianceBernstein. “It’s going to be a time-consuming process.”

Distressed-debt investors are also finding negotiations complicated by China’s government, which is attempting to avoid further economic damage from the property market slump. The country’s economy has struggled this year. Exports are down, consumer demand is sluggish, and inflation is nonexistent.

European and U.S. distressed-debt investors who bought Evergrande’s bonds after the company defaulted were hoping for a “rational, market-driven” restructuring, said Kenny Chung, portfolio manager of fixed-income focused hedge fund Astera Capital.

“Now they’ve realized that the restructuring of a company that is the scale of Evergrande will be overseen by the government and will depend on the government’s future design for the firm,” Chung said.

Sunac China, a large developer that defaulted last May, received court approval for a restructuring plan it wants to complete this month, and investors point to it as an example that deals are possible. Sunac’s dollar bonds have risen several points in the past weeks, although they are still trading at around 15 cents on the dollar, according to Tradeweb.

Robert Koenigsberger, founder and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management, said that distressed-debt investing can still work in China’s property sector. He said that after the wave of defaults in 2021, many investors rushed into the sector too soon—and paid too much.

“They made the first classic mistake in distressed investing: They bought it because it was cheaper than it used to be, not cheap relative to what it was worth. You have to get involved in the sweet spot from both a timing and entry price perspective,” said Koenigsberger, whose fund manages almost $6 billion of assets.