>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of October 2023

>>> Up
* Addtech Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 205 kronor
* Chevron Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $190
* Clorox Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Ferrovial Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 34 euros
* First Quantum Minerals Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* First Solar Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $224
* Kimberly-Clark Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein
* NYAB Oyj Raised to Reduce at Inderes; PT 55 euro cents
* Schroder Japan Trust Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan
* Springfield Properties Raised to Add at Peel Hunt
* XXL Raised to Buy at DNB Markets; PT 1.30 kroner

>>> Down
* Asos Cut to Sell at Goldman
* Boohoo Cut to Sell at Goldman
* Fondia Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* Foot Locker Cut to Sell at CFRA; PT $15
* Genmab Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Helvetia Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 105 Swiss francs
* Johnson Matthey Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 1,650 pence

>>> Initiation
* Gerresheimer Rated New Buy at DBS Bank; PT 120 euros
* Mandatum Rated New Buy at Inderes; PT 4.20 euros
* Marriott Vacations Reinstated Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $105
* Reply Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 105 euros
* SwedenCare Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 39 kronor
* TF Bank Rated New Buy at DNB Markets; PT 196 kronor

>>> Call
* Carlsberg, Heineken Put on Positive Catalyst Watches at Citi
* Ferrovial Set for Good Traffic Growth, Raised to Buy at Citi
* Helvetia Cut at Berenberg on Weakening Underwriting Margins
* Johnson Matthey ‘No Longer Compelling,’ Cut to Hold at Berenberg

WSJ : Publicis Raises Guidance Again After Organic Growth Beats Expectations

Publicis Raises Guidance Again After Organic Growth Beats Expectations

Publicis Groupe raised guidance for the second time this year after third-quarter organic revenue growth beat expectations, saying market-share gains allowed it to offset a challenging economic backdrop.

The Paris-based advertising group said Thursday that it now expects organic net revenue growth to be between 5.5% and 6% this year, against its previous projection of around 5%, which had already been upgraded in July. Organic growth refers to the change in net revenue excluding the impacts of acquisitions, asset sales and currency movements.

For the September quarter, the company reported organic net revenue growth of 5.3% and beat analysts’ expectations of a 3.6% rise, according to a consensus estimate provided by Publicis.

The company, which owns agencies including Saatchi & Saatchi, Leo Burnett and Zenith, said its revenue mix and tailwinds from recent new-business wins drove organic growth in the quarter and enabled it to gain market share.

“This gives us the confidence to further upgrade our 2023 guidance, even in a context of rising global socioeconomic tensions,” Publicis Chairman and Chief Executive Arthur Sadoun said.

Publicis has in recent quarters bucked a slowdown in the advertising market that hit most of its peers as marketers turned more cautious on spending in the face of uncertainty about the global economy.

>>> US After Hours Summary: Quiet session; VSCO +2.2% up on raised Q3 guidance;

After Hours Summary: Quiet session; VSCO +2.2% up on raised Q3 guidance; MSFT -0.6% ticking lower on $28.9 bln back-tax bill from IRS
After Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: RELL +2.3%, VSCO +2.2% (guidance)
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ATXS +15.5% (exclusive license agreement with Ichnos), AZEK +2.8% (selling its Vycom business), GOOG +0.5% (Teamsters protest Waymo launch), ROST +0.3% (appoints new President of Operations), CERE +0.2% (files $400 mln stock offering), GS +0.2% (suing Malaysia over 1MDB scandal, according to Bloomberg)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: None
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: NGM -6.1% (to present data), ITOS -5.5% (being replaced in the S&P SmallCap 600), HRZN -0.6% (provides Q3 portfolio update), MSFT -0.6% (IRS seeking $28.9 bln in back taxes; OpenAI releasing cheaper application development update, according to Reuters), OMGA -0.5% (to present data)

>>> US Close Dow +0.19% S&P +0.43% Nasdaq +0.71%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market started, and finished, this session on a positive note. Around 1:45 p.m. ET, however, the three major indices were all in negative territory before bouncing off their session lows. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed near their best levels of the day, bolstered by their mega cap components.

Notably, stocks were moving lower mid-morning despite a drop in long-term rates, which has been supportive for stocks of late. The 10-yr note yield declined seven basis points to 4.59% and the 2-yr note yield rose one basis point to 5.00%.

Some participants attributed the downside moves to lingering nervousness related to reports that Iran-backed Hezbollah made some provocative moves in the north. Israel, however, said those reports were a "false alarm," according to Bloomberg.

Other factors cited as a possible catalyst for the mid-morning slide were hesitation ahead of the September Consumer Price Index tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET following this morning's hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index, and tax-related selling in front of the October 16 deadline.
Total PPI was up 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and core PPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%). Those gains left PPI up 2.2% year-over-year, versus 1.6% in August, and core PPI up 2.7%, versus 2.2% in August, reversing the trend of disinflation that had been seen.

Many stocks recovered in the afternoon trade, riding the coattails of the mega cap stocks. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (MGK) ended the day 0.9% higher after being up just 0.1% at its worst level. The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), which had been down 0.5% at its low, finished the session up 0.2%. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed in positive territory. The real estate (+2.0%), utilities (+1.6%), communication services (+1.1%), and information technology (+1.0%) sectors all jumped more than 1.0%.

The energy sector (-1.4%) was the worst performer, weighed down by Exxon (XOM 106.49, -3.96, -3.6%) after it announced a $59.5 billion all-stock acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD 240.82, +3.41, +1.4%), and a 2.5% drop in WTI crude oil futures to $83.75/bbl. The consumer staples (-0.6%) and health care (-0.4%) sectors were the next worst performers.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +30.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: +14.0% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +3.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.0% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +0.7% YTD
Reviewing today's economic data:
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 0.6% following last week's 6.0% decline
  • The Producer Price Index for September was up 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following a 0.7% increase in August. The Producer Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in August. On a year-over-year basis, PPI was up 2.2%, versus 1.6% in August, and core PPI was up 2.7%, versus 2.2% in August
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it marked an interruption in the disinflation seen in producer prices, which will keep market participants worried about pass-through effects to the consumer and rates staying higher for longer because inflation is staying higher for longer than the Fed would like.

Looking ahead to Thursday, the September Consumer Price Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Other notable data include the weekly jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories at 10:30 a.m. ET, the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 11:00 a.m. ET, and the September Treasury Budget at 2:00 p.m. ET.

The Information : Why AMD’s Upcoming Chips Won’t Be the Savior AI Startups Are H

Why AMD’s Upcoming Chips Won’t Be the Savior AI Startups Are Hoping For

Two weeks ago, there was a flurry of excitement around a tweet from Sharon Zhou, cofounder and CEO of Lamini, a startup that helps AI developers create customized large language models. Zhou revealed in the tweet that, for the past year, she’s been using more than 100 chips from chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices to power her AI startup’s products.

In the midst of the ongoing compute crunch, AI founders and investors rallied around the news, seeing it as an indicator that AMD could cash in on the intense demand for AI chips, possibly even taking market share from the main supplier of those chips, Nvidia. AMD stock has jumped 13% since then.

Indeed, the AMD chip in question, the Instinct MI300A, has often been touted by founders and analysts as a strong alternative to Nvidia’s industry-leading H100. It’s due for release later this year. But before AI startups get too excited, they should pay attention to all the details of Zhou’s experience with the AMD chips. The short version: it’s not as easy as it looks to use those chips.

Zhou told me that while her startup officially launched a year ago, her cofounder, Greg Diamos, had been working for several years on optimizing AMD’s chips for the software Lamini has developed. So it would be nearly impossible for a startup that has built AI apps on top of Nvidia chips to switch to AMD chips now because it would have to “throw out all code and start from scratch,” she said.

Nvidia has a “two-decade head start” when it comes to Cuda, Nvidia’s “hardware acceleration” software that helps developers build apps utilizing its chips, she added. And that software only works with Nvidia’s chips and developers are already familiar with it. It likely helped Diamos’ efforts that he was an early developer of Cuda.

That’s not to say that AMD’s chips don’t have any advantages.

The AMD MI300A chip combines both a graphics processing unit, which performs multiple computations simultaneously, and a central processing unit, which executes more general instructions and manages the system’s broader operations. That’s in contrast to Nvidia’s H100 chips, which are GPU-only. (Nvidia’s newer Grace Hopper Superchip, however, similarly combines a GPU and CPU.)

That chip combination provides a few benefits. In model training, the CPU is responsible for preparing and loading data onto the GPU, where the actual computations occur. Placing the CPU and GPU closer together speeds up this process.

Additionally, AMD’s combined CPU and GPU MI300A chip has more memory—128 gigabytes versus 80 gigabytes in Nvidia’s H100 chip. Increased memory capacity means developers can load a bigger, more complex AI model on a single chip versus splitting it across multiple chips. Splitting up the model makes training and running it slower and more power-intensive.

But historically, AMD has been known for serving national labs with AI chips, such as the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, said Bing Xu, cofounder and CEO of HippoML, a startup that makes AI models run faster and more cheaply. Because of this, its chips are optimized for FP64 large matrix multiplication, a highly complex and precise computation used in training models, Xu said. But most startups running AI models require lower precision and higher speed. AMD chips aren’t specialized for this use case and therefore tend to be slower.

The dominance of Nvidia’s Cuda software has also made it difficult for AMD’s equivalent, an open-source software called RocM, to catch on. Nvidia additionally has a huge head start on other software components such as drivers, which connects operating systems to the hardware, and therefore has had more time to iron out lots of bugs in the process.

All of this creates a Catch-22: AMD’s chips and software can only improve if more developers use them, but those developers won’t want to use them if they’re buggy. The chip bottleneck may be enough to push some AI startups towards AMD, but especially given the crazy amounts of capital being thrown around, many may prefer to pay up for what they’re used to: Nvidia chips.

The good news from AMD’s point of view is that a number of startups are working to make it easier to use non-Nvidia chips. Lamini, for instance, is aiming to simplify many of the difficulties of building AI models on top of AMD GPUs. Zhou hopes that she’ll be able to popularize the usage of AMD chips so cloud providers will begin offering them. Meanwhile, Modular is building software to allow developers to train and run models on different types of hardware. (Plus, it looks like AMD itself is interested in snapping up some of these startups: On Tuesday, the chipmaker announced its acquisition of Nod.ai, a startup building software that helps companies deploy AI models tuned for AMD’s chips more easily.)

The combination of these up-and-coming startups and the chip shortage make this a unique opportunity for AMD to overturn its biggest rival—the only question is, will they succeed?