>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens (SIE TH) +1.1%
    • Siemens Sees Sharp Drop in China Factory-Automation Orders (1)
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +0.9%
    • Rabobank Fights EU’s €26.6 Million Fine in Deutsche Bank Case
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) -0.8%
MDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1.2%
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +0.9%
    • Nemetschek Delivers Against High Bar, Morgan Stanley Says
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) -0.8%
  • Fraport (FRA TH) -0.9%
SDAX:
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +3%
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +2%
  • KWS Saat (KWS TH) -0.6%
    • KWS Saat 1H Ebit Loss EU96.4M
  • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) -0.8%
    • US Commercial Real Estate Contagion Is Now Moving to Europe (2)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of February 2024

>>> Up
* Carlsberg Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Chipotle PT Raised to $2,958 from $2,200 at Argus
* Generali Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 24.50 euros
* Lancashire Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 750 pence
* Latour Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Nordic Semiconductor Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Norion Bank AB Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 48 kronor
* Pandora Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 1,300 kroner
* Publicis Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* Redrow Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 721 pence
* Renault Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 49 euros
* Sanoma Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 7 euros
* TeamViewer SE PT Raised to 21 euros from 19 euros at RBC
* Uber PT Raised to $77 from $68 at Truist Secs

>>> Down
* Axa Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 33.70 euros
* Equinor Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 300 kroner
* Fortum Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 12.50 euros
* Handelsbanken Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 130 kronor
* InterContinental Hotels Cut to Hold at SocGen
* Redrow Cut to Hold From Buy by Jefferies, Target Cut to 721p From 774p by Jefferies
* UPM-Kymmene Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 32 euros
* Valmet Cut to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 28 euros
* Zurich Ins. Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 455 Swiss francs

>>> Initiation
* ACS Reinstated Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 42 euros
* Onward Medical Rated New Buy at KBC Securities; PT 10 euros
* Vonovia Rated New Buy at Baader Helvea; PT 33 euros

>>> Call
* Nemetschek Delivers Against High Bar, Morgan Stanley Says

>>> What to look at today - 8th of February 2024

Asian stocks were mixed as mainland Chinese equities fluctuated on the final trading day before the Lunar New Year holidays. Treasuries edged higher. China’s CSI 300 Index swung between gains and losses after the midday break, while the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index pared its advance. The benchmarks had climbed in early trading after the nation replaced the head of its securities regulator Wednesday, a surprise move that may foreshadow more forceful steps to support the stock market.  The gains proved fleeting after data showed China’s consumer prices fell last month at the fastest pace since the global financial crisis as the country struggles to shake off persistent deflation pressures. Hong Kong shares fell. China’s stock valuations are cheap but to “lay the foundations for a multi-year uptrend, we really need to see inflation data improving quite significantly, moving back into positive territory,” Steve Brice, chief investment officer for wealth management at Standard Chartered, said on Bloomberg Television. “That’s going to need most likely significant policy stimulus.” A gauge of the region’s equities slid into the red after Chinese equities lost momentum. Benchmarks in Australia and South Korea bucked the trends, while those in Japan rose after the yen weakened following comments from Shinichi Uchida, a Bank of Japan’s deputy governor. He said it was hard to see the bank raising its policy rate continuously and rapidly even after the negative interest rate is ended. US futures were little changed after the S&P 500 closed at a fresh high. The gauge came within striking distance of 5,000 index points as traders bet that a solid economy will continue fueling corporate profits. Contracts for European stocks signaled a higher open. Treasuries slightly rose in Asia as the 10-year retraced a minor decline from the prior session. Wednesday was marked by a record $42 billion auction that sold at a lower yield than expected, in a sign of strong demand and easing concerns that the market may struggle to digest heavy supply. India’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a sixth straight meeting Thursday and retained its hawkish policy stance, signaling rates will stay higher for longer. Markets in Taiwan, Indonesia, Vietnam and Pakistan are closed. Earnings to be released in the region include Honda Motor Co. and SoftBank Group Corp., which is expected to have one of its best quarters in years. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. shares fell around 6.7% in Hong Kong despite the company unveiling $25 billion in stock repurchases. Arm Holdings Plc, in which SoftBank owns a stake, rallied by as much as 38% in after-hours trading in New York after upbeat earnings, while Softbank rose in Asia. US chip stocks within the S&P 500 rose 2.1%, more than the broader market, helped along by a 2.8% gain for Nvidia Corp. Renewed fears about US regional banks appeared to ease, helping support the tentative risk-on tone in New York trading. New York Community Bancorp shares ended higher after retracing an intraday 14% decline. More Fed officials suggested Wednesday they don’t see an urgent case for lowering interest rates, adding to a roster of policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell who have warned in recent days that a cut isn’t likely until May at the earliest. Elsewhere, oil extended a three-day climb, with prices supported by gains in wider financial markets and lingering Middle East risks. Gold steadied for a second day. US After Hours DIS +5.7% higher on earnings and several announcements; ARM +27.8%, OSCR +23%, CFLT +20%, BLBD +10.4%, MPWR +8.5% higher on earnings; ACLS -7.5%, RPD -7.5%, PAYC -7.1%, PYPL -7.1% lower on earnings.

Nikkei +2.06% Hang Seng -1.35% CSI +0.32% Shanghai +1.05% Shenzen +3.06%

Eur$ 1.0783 CNH 7.2098 CNY 7.1954 JPY 148.66 GBP 1.2628 CHF 0.8730 RUB 91.2752 TRY 30.6014 WTI$ 74.19 +0.45% Gold 2,033 -0.12% BTC 44,500 +0.70% ETH 2,420 -0.36%

S&P -0.01% Nasdaq +0.07% EuroStoxx +0.26% FTSE +0.06% Dax +0.26% SMI +0.10%

Macro :
- Citadel Among Hedge Funds That Got Morgan Stanley’s Trade Leaks
- EVs and Grids Seen as Top Energy Transition Bets: ESG Investing

Keep an eye on :
- ADYEN NA : Adyen 2H Net Revenue Beats Estimates
- AIR FP : Airbus Delivered 30 Jets in January
- ACC NO : Aker Carbon Capture Gets Study for Capturing Biogenic CO2
- AKRBP NO : Aker BP Sees 2024 Avg Production 410,000 to 440,000 BOE/D
- AKSO NO : Aker Solutions 4Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AKTIA FH : Aktia Bank 4Q Adjusted EPS Misses Estimates
- ALV GY : Twenty-Fold Rise in Red Sea Marine War Costs Could Jump Further
- AMBEA SS : Ambea 4Q Net Sales Beats Estimates
- AMUN FP : Amundi Hires Private Credit Investment Director Guillon From LCL
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal 4Q Ebitda Beats Estimates, ArcelorMittal Sees Steel Demand Accelerating This Year
- ATEA NO : Atea 4Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- ATO FP : Credit Agricole Backs Away From Atos Refinancing: FT
- BAR BB : Barco FY Ebitda Margin Beats Estimates
- BCVN SW : BC Vaudoise FY Net Income Misses Estimates
- BOL SS : Boliden FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- BPER IM : BPER Banca 4Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- COOR SS : Coor 4Q Net Sales Beats Estimates; Sweden CEO to Leave
- COTY FP : Coty Beats on Revenue With Sales Boosted by Fragrances
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 4Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse Sees 2024 Net Revenue Above EU5.6B, Est. EU5.64B
- DIS US : Disney to invest $1.5 billion in 'Fortnite' maker Epic Games to create games, entertainment
- DNO NO : DNO 4Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- EDP PL : EDP Renovaveis Secures 15-Year Power Purchase Agreement in Spain
- ELK NO : Elkem 4Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- FINGB SS : Fingerprint Cards 4Q Oper Loss SEK105.2M Vs. Loss SEK527.3M Y/y
- FSKRS FH : Fiskars 4Q Comparable Ebit Matches Estimates
- FLOW NA : Flow Traders 4Q Normalized Ebitda Beats Estimates
- GN DC : GN Store Nord Sees 2024 Organic Revenue +2% to +8%
- HABA GY : Hamborner REIT Sees 2024 FFO EU49M to EU50.5M
- HUH1V FH : Huhtamaki 4Q Adjusted Ebit Beats Estimates
- INWI SS : Inwido 4Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- IPN FP : Ipsen Sees 2024 Sales at Constant FX Above +6%, Est. +5.33%
- KBC BB : KBC Sees 2024 Net Interest Income EU5.3B to EU5.5B, Est. EU5.38B
- KER FP :
- KWS GY : KWS Saat 1H Ebit Loss EU96.4M
- LEON SW : Leonteq FY Pretax Profit Misses Estimates
- MAERSKB DC : Maersk Faces Network Problems, Disrupting Operations in Americas
- MIPS SS : Mips 4Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- BMPS IM : Italy Mulls New Stake Sale in Monte Paschi of Up to 10%: MF
- MTGB SS : MTG Says Monumental Will Buy Kongregate
- MTGB SS : MTG 4Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- MUV2 GY : Twenty-Fold Rise in Red Sea Marine War Costs Could Jump Further
- NEM GY : Nemetschek Prelim FY Ebitda Margin Beats Estimates
- ALCOX FP :
- NSKOG NO : Norske Skog 4Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- ORK NO : Orkla 4Q Adjusted Ebit Misses Estimates
- ONTEX BB : Ontex FY Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- ORP FP : Orpea Completes ~€390M Rights Issue at €0.0133/New Share
- ORSTED DC : Orsted’s Japan Wind Exit Driven by Slow Market Uptake: BNEF
- OR FP : L’Oreal Corporate Responsibility Chief Palt to Leave Post
- PNDXB SS : Pandox 4Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- PGHN SW : KKR Is Said to Drop Out of Bidding for Partners Group’s Techem
- PUB FP : Publicis Sees 2024 Organic Revenue +4% to +5%, Est. +3.51%
- RECSI NO : REC Silicon 4Q Ebitda Loss $31.2M
- RVRC SS : RVRC Holding Holder Offers Shares
- SRS IM : Italy’s Moratti Family Approached About Sale of Saras Stake
- SIE GY : Siemens 1Q Industrial Business Profit Beats Estimates
- SKAB SS : Skanska Gets NOK1.1 Billion Contract for New Data Center Norway
- SLIGR NA : Sligro FY Ebitda Beats Estimates
- GLE FP : SocGen 4Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- GLE FP : SocGen’s Krupa Vows Growth After Year Marred by Wrong-Way Hedges
- SOI FP : Soitec Cuts FY Like-for-Like Sales Forecast, Soitec’s Outlook Cut Should Reset Expectations
- SOHC US : Soho House Tumbles After Short Seller Draws WeWork Comparisons
- SCOM SW : Swisscom FY Ebitda Meets Estimates
- SPSN SW : Swiss Prime FY Vacancy Rate Matches Estimates
- TLX GY : Talanx Prelim FY Dividend per Share Above EU2, Est. EU2.28
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Seeks New Improved Bid Terms for Sparkle Unit
- UBI FP : Disney's Epic Investment Might Affect Star Wars Outlaws
- UMI BB : Umicore Concludes €350m EIB Loan for EV Battery Research
- URW FP : Unibail FY Adjusted Recurring EPS Beats Estimates
- VEI NO : Veidekke 4Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- VERK FH : Verkkokauppa.com 4Q Net Income Misses Estimates
- DG FP : Vinci FY Ebit Beats Estimates
- VIV FP : Vivendi's Breakup Strategy U-Turn May Boost Value Recognition
- VONN SW ; Vontobel to Buy Minority Stake in Ancala Partners; No Terms
- WSU GY : Washtec Prelim FY Ebit Meets Estimates
- WMG US : Warner Music 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- WLN FP : Worldline to Cut About 1,400 Jobs in €200 Million Cost Plan
- XIOR BB : Xior FY EPRA EPS Beats Estimates
- XXL NO : XXL 4Q Revenue Misses Estimates

>>> US After Hours Summary: DIS +5.7% higher on earnings and several announcemen

After Hours Summary: DIS +5.7% higher on earnings and several announcements; ARM +27.8%, OSCR +23%, CFLT +20%, BLBD +10.4%, MPWR +8.5% higher on earnings; ACLS -7.5%, RPD -7.5%, PAYC -7.1%, PYPL -7.1% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ARM +27.8%, OSCR +23%, CFLT +20%, BLBD +10.4%, MPWR +8.5% (also acquires Axign B.V.; also increases dividend), RRR +5.9% (also declares $1/sh special dividend), DIS +5.7% (also to invest $1.5 bln in Epic Games; also increases dividend by 50%; announces new share repurchase program; also to make full suite of ESPN channels as standalone digital platform in fall 2025), WMG +5% (also launches plan to achieve $200 mln in annual savings ), UTI +4.2%, CSGS +3.8% (also increases dividend), WYNN +3.4%, CPA +3.1%, VKTX +2.9%, RDN +2.3%, PDM +1.9%, CENT +1.6%, NFG +1.3%, OHI +1.2%, ALL +0.9%, KN +0.5%, TTGT +0.3%, EGP +0.1%, MMS +0.1%, MUSA +0.1%, STC +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ACTG +6.5% (licensing and settlement agreements relating to its WiFi-6 patent portfolio), SNPS +1.2% (mulling selling its software business according to Bloomberg), ALK +1.1% (ALK and HA receive second request from DOJ), KD +1% (expands partnership with Google Cloud), HA +0.6% (ALK and HA receive second request from DOJ)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: APPS -15.9%, GPRO -9%, QLYS -8.6% (also increases buyback auth by $200 mln), ACLS -7.5%, RPD -7.5%, PAYC -7.1% (also names new Co-CEO; also to expand in UK), PYPL -7.1% (also sees shares repurchases of at least $5 bln in FY24), AZTA -5.6%, FORM -5.6%, NVST -5.4%, UHAL -5%, CMP -4.9% (also terminates lithium brine project in Utah), ORLY -3.9%, EG -3.6%, CXW -3.5%, MKSI -3.3%, ENS -3.2%, MCK -3.1%, EFX -2.9%, FLNC -2.1%, MOH -1.4%, PYCR -1%, COTY -0.6%, STE -0.5%, MAA -0.2%, BKH -0.1%, HMN -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SANA -6.6% (commences $125 mln stock offering), SNAP -1.2% (files mixed shelf securities offering), GTN -1% (issues statement relating to DIS FOX WBD stremaing service), UNH -0.7% (COO to retire), RKLB -0.2% (sets launch window), XOM -0.1% (PXD receives shareholder approval for merger with XOM), COST -0.1% (reports Jan comps)

>>> US Close Dow +0.41% S&P +0.82% Nasdaq +0.95% Russell -0.17%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market is reportedly overbought, overvalued, and due for a pullback. Granted not everyone sees it that way, which is why the expected pullback still didn't happen today. On the contrary, the major indices found higher ground today, supported by mega-cap leadership and their own resilience to selling interest.

Meta Platforms (META 469.59, +14.87, +3.3%), NVIDIA (NVDA 700.99, +18.76, +2.8%), Microsoft (MSFT 414.05, +8.56, +2.1%), Alphabet (GOOG 146.68, +1.27, +0.9%), Amazon.com (AMZN 170.53, +1.38, +0.8%) and Eli Lilly (LLY 724.84, +19.81, +2.8%) provided a load of market-cap weighted influence on the major indices.

The only failure today --if one wants to call it that -- was the inability of the S&P 500 to hit the 5,000 level. It came oh, so close, topping out at 4,999.89 in the final hour of trading. Nonetheless, it still managed to log all-time intraday and closing highs in today's trade, garnering added support from outsized moves in the likes of Enphase Energy (ENPH 117.51, +17.00, +16.9%), Emerson Electric (EMR 104.04, +9.78, +10.4%), Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 2664.90, +177.16, +7.1%), Ford (F 12.80, +0.73, +6.0%), and CVS Health (CVS 76.04, +2.28, +3.1%) following their earnings reports.

On the flip side, Snap (SNAP 11.41, -6.05, -34.6%), which is not an S&P 500 component, plummeted 35% after coming up shy of Q4 revenue estimates and issuing disappointing Q1 adjusted EBITDA guidance. Dow component Amgen (AMGN 295.87, -20.20, -6.4%) was another notable laggard following its earnings results.

Contending for the most notable mover of note today was New York Community Bancorp (NYCB 4.50, +0.30, +7.1%). Following a Moody's downgrade of its long-term issuer rating to junk status (Ba2), shares of NYCB fell as much as 14.3% before staging a massive comeback effort that was presumably exacerbated by short-covering activity.

The turnaround there carried over to other regional bank stocks and was evident in the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), which ended the session down just 0.3% after being down as much as 2.8% earlier in the day.

The S&P 500 financial sector managed to close 0.7% higher, but it was the information technology (+1.4%), consumer discretionary (+1.1%), communication services (+0.9%), and materials (+0.8%) sectors that stood atop the leaderboard when the closing bell rang.

The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) jumped 1.3% today while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal-Weight ETF (RSP) rose a more modest 0.4%.

The Treasury market bobbed and weaved today, having digested a remark from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (non-FOMC voter) that two to three rate cuts this year are appropriate based on what he knows now, a contention from Fed Governor Kugler (FOMC voter) that the current target range for the fed funds rate may need to be held there for longer if progress on disinflation stalls, and a $42 billion 10-yr note auction that was met with strong demand. The 2-yr note yield settled up two basis points at 4.42% while the 10-yr note yield also settled up two basis points to 4.11%. Thursday will feature a $25 billion 30-yr bond auction.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +5.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: +4.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.6% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: -0.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000: -3.8% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • MBA Mortgage Applications Index +3.7% wk/wk with refinance applications +12% and purchase applications -1%.
  • The trade deficit widened to $62.2 billion in December (consensus -$62.0 billion) from an upwardly revised $61.9 billion (from -$63.2 billion) in November. Exports were $3.9 billion more than November exports and imports were $4.2 billion more than November imports.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that exports and imports both increased in a welcome sign for global trade.
  • Consumer Credit increased by $1.6 bln in December (consensus $16.3 bln) following a downwardly revised $23.5 bln (from $23.8 bln) in November. Revolving credit increased by $1.1 bln in December to $1.314 trln. Nonrevolving credit increased by $0.5 bln to $3.696 trln.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that the slowdown in credit expansion, both for revolving and nonrevolving debt, fits with banks tightening their lending standards and demand for credit lessening in the face of higher interest rates.

Thursday's economic calendar features:
  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (consensus 218,000; prior 224,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.898 mln)
  • 10:00 ET: December Wholesale Inventories (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.2%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -197 bcf)

>>> Walt Disney beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above cons

Walt Disney beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, Disney+ Core Subscribers decreased 1.3 mln qtr/qtr, inline with guidance; also increases dividend by 50% and announces new share repurchase program (99.27 -0.02)
  • Reports Q1 (Dec) earnings of $1.22 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 better than the FactSet Consensus of $0.99; revenues fell 0.1% year/year to $23.5 bln vs the $23.71 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • On track to meet or exceed $7.5 billion annualized savings target by the end of fiscal 2024, while DIS continues to look for further efficiency opportunities.
  • Continues to expect to reach profitability at combined streaming businesses in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, and are making tremendous progress in this area, with first quarter Entertainment DTC operating losses improving by nearly $300 million versus the prior quarter.
  • Disney+ Core subscribers decreased sequentially by 1.3 million, in line with prior guidance and reflecting a substantial price increase in the quarter as well as the end of the global summer promotion. Disney+ Core ARPU increased sequentially by $0.14 versus the fourth quarter. Expect Disney+ Core subscriber net additions of between 5.5 and 6 million and ongoing positive momentum in ARPU in the second quarter.
  • Direct-to-Consumer revenue up 15% to $5.5 bln; operating loss of $(138) mln compared to $(984) mln year-ago qtr.
  • Entertainment segment revenue down 7% to $9.9 bln, operating income more than doubled to $874 mln.
  • Linear Networks revenue down 12% to $2.8 bln; operating income down 7% to $1.2 bln.
  • Sports revenue up 4% to $4.8 bln.
  • New Share Repurchase Program: In February 2024, the Board of Directors approved a new share repurchase program effective February 7, 2024; plans to target $3 billion in repurchases in fiscal 2024.
  • Dividend Increase: The Board also declared on February 7, 2024 a cash dividend of $0.45 per share - an increase of 50% versus the last dividend paid in January.
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY24, sees EPS of at least $4.60, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.29 FactSet Consensus. Continue to expect free cash flow generation in fiscal 2024 to total roughly $8 billion.