>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • SPOT +8.4%, DHR +6.7%, CR +6.3% (to also acquire CryoWorks), NVS +5.2%, GE +4.9%, GM +4.4%, PHM +4.4%, KMB +4.3%, SAP +3.9%, OPCH +3.6%, HSTM +3.4%, FBP +3%, ARE +2.8%, FI +2.7%, PNR +2.3%, MLI +2.3%, DGX +2.2%, GL +2.1%, RBB +2.1% (also appoints new CFO), CADE +1.8%, MEDP +1.6%, VLRS +1.6%, LMT +1.6%, CATY +1.4%, R +1.4%, UPS +1.3%, HAL +0.9%, HXL +0.8%, AGNC +0.7%, PNFP +0.7%, HRI +0.7%
Other news:
  • IBRX +23.7% (receives FDA approval of ANKTIVA)
  • HIBB +18.7% (to be acquired by JD Sports Fashion for $87.50 per share)
  • CANG +8.2% (announces up to $50 mln new share repurchase program)
  • ACET +7% (highlights preclinical data)
  • LIND +6.5% (CFO to resign)
  • NBIX +5.5% (reports positive phase 2 data for NBI-1065845 in adults with major depressive disorder)
  • BGNE +3.1% (announces that the European Commission has approved tislelizumab as a treatment for non-small cell lung cancer across three indications, including first- and second-line use)
  • AJG +2.2% (acquires Prasidium Credit Insurance)
  • NGNE +2% (upcoming presentation of safety data)
  • OSG +1.8% (awarded federal grant to design marine transport for liquified CO2 captured by Florida's largest emitters)
  • HESM +1.1% (increases quarterly cash distribution)
Analyst comments:
  • ATRC +4.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer)
  • PENN +4.8% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist)
  • RBLX +4.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • DDOG +2.9% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo)
  • FSLR +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI)
  • MELI +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at DZ Bank)
  • STM +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg)

>>> US Research Calls

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades:
    • AtriCure (ATRC) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer; tgt $32
    • BCE Inc (BCE) upgraded to Sector Outperform from Neutral at CIBC
    • BlackLine (BL) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Sandler; tgt raised to $62
    • Datadog (DDOG) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo; tgt raised to $150
    • First Solar (FSLR) upgraded to Outperform from In-line at Evercore ISI; tgt $227
    • Gatos Silver (GATO) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Genuity; tgt raised to $12.50
    • Medpace (MEDP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $450
    • MercadoLibre (MELI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at DZ Bank; tgt $1685
    • PENN Entertainment (PENN) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Truist; tgt $23
    • Roblox (RBLX) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $48
    • Sendas Distribuidora S.A. (ASAI) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan; tgt raised to $17
    • Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney; tgt $23
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Berenberg
    • Thomson Reuters (TRI) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at National Bank Financial
  • Downgrades:
    • Canadian Natrl Res (CNQ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Desjardins
    • Five Below (FIVE) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt $170
    • MP Materials (MP) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan; tgt lowered to $16
    • Sunnova Energy (NOVA) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets
    • SunPower (SPWR) downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI; tgt $6
    • Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Wolfe Research; tgt $7
    • XP (XP) downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley; tgt lowered to $24
  • Others:
    • Albertsons (ACI) added to JP Morgan's Analyst Focus List
    • Auna S.A. (AUNA) initiated with a Buy at HSBC Securities; tgt $12.60
    • Cartesian Therapeutics (RNAC) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink Partners; tgt $39
    • Incyte (INCY) initiated with a Neutral at Cantor Fitzgerald
    • Insmed (INSM) initiated with a Buy at Truist; tgt $48
    • MongoDB (MDB) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital; tgt $415
    • Qualcomm (QCOM) initiated with a Buy at The Benchmark Company; tgt $200
    • Rentokil Initial plc (RTO) resumed with a Neutral at JP Morgan

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 23rd of April 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* Belimo Raised to Buy at Research Partners; PT 500 Swiss francs (+)
* Ence Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 3.80 euros (+)
* Evli Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 22 euros
* Galp Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 19 euros
* Galp Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 25 euros
* Gresham House Energy Storage Fund/The Raised to Buy at Stifel (+)
* Legrand Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 112 euros
* Meyer Burger Raised to Buy at Baader Helvea
* Reckitt Raised to Hold at Jefferies; PT 4,400 pence
* Rosenbauer Raised to Buy at Raiffeisen Bank; PT 38 euros (++)
* Sandvik Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 265 kronor
* STMicroelectronics Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 49 euros
* Telenor Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Troax Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 237 kronor (++)

>>> Down
* Betolar Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 1 euro
* Embracer Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Ferretti Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 3.50 euros (+)
* Learning Tech Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Mondi Cut to Underweight at Prescient Securities
* Rentokil Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 500 pence

>>> Initiation
* Aht Syngas Technology Rated New Buy at GBC AG; PT 37.50 euros (++)
* Aixtron Rated New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 29.50 euros (+)
* BioMerieux Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 121 euros (+)
* Impianti Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 70 euro cents
* Interparfums Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 62 euros
* James Fisher Rated New Outperform at Davy; PT 600 pence (+)
* LSE Group Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 10,400 pence (+)
* Sanlorenzo/Ameglia Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane (++)
* Vimian Re-Initiated Buy at Carnegie; PT 45 kronor (++)

>>> Call
* Aixtron New Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser, Valuation Very Attractive (+)
* Citi Strategists See Stock Pullback as a Buying Opportunity (+)
* Interparfums New Buy at Berenberg on Prestige Product Outlook
* JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Slide in US Stocks Has Further to Go
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Keep Bullish View on European Stocks (++)
* OVH Outlook Commentary Is Disappointing, Morgan Stanley Says (+)
* Reckitt Loses Only Sell as Jefferies Sees Sentiment Improving
* STMicro Upgraded at Berenberg, Negative Trends are Priced-In
* UBS PT Is Cut at RBC as Too-Big-to-Fail Concerns Seen Justified (+)

FT : Galp will set off Big Oil dealmaking with its Namibian find

Galp will set off Big Oil dealmaking with its Namibian find
Shell, Total and Chevron are all drilling, or planning to drill, in the Orange oil basin

Galp is going to need a rebranding. How about Gulp?

The midsized Portuguese oil company — now worth $15bn — has a good problem. It has discovered billions of barrels of oil offshore of Namibia.

That is a lot. Galp reported about 620mn barrels of oil reserves in 2023. Its favourable results after testing its biggest Namibian find has sent the shares soaring to a record high. The increase added $2.5bn to its market value on Monday.

Expect further oil discoveries. Galp should know Namibia, having drilled in those waters for more than a decade. Its find proves that despite rumours to the contrary, oil exploration is not dead yet. Other Big Oil names will be interested in sharing in that success.

So far the explorer estimates 10bn barrels of oil equivalent is in place, but it will drill more wells this year. Until now Galp had shied away from offering any estimates since a discovery in January, notes Jefferies.


Namibia should radically boost Galp’s value. Of the 10bn barrels, not all will be oil; some will be less valuable natural gas. Even then, Galp will probably only extract a third of that available oil. Haircut the total by these factors and Galp could sit on more than 2bn barrels. After costs, each is worth about $5 (based on $65 a barrel oil prices) says energy consultants Wood Mackenzie. Lex puts the total so far at over $9bn, adjusting for Galp’s 80 per cent ownership.

This is not a one-asset explorer. Galp already has oil production in Brazil, with a new project starting up at Bacalhau. It has stakes in projects in Mozambique (gas) and offshore São Tomé (near Nigeria). It made more than $1bn in after-tax profits last year. Then again, after a 43 per cent stock price rally this year, the company is no longer cheap. On an enterprise value to forward ebitda ratio of over 5 times, it trades at a premium to all its regional peers.

Galp will certainly need help. Bringing this oil to market will cost billions of dollars. It may well sell down its stake to an international oil company. Candidates include Shell, Total and Chevron, which are all drilling, or planning to drill, in the same Orange oil basin. Galp’s success will attract interest from larger peers who, regardless of any climate pledges, still seek oil growth.

FT : Telecom Italia averts Vivendi showdown at AGM

Telecom Italia averts Vivendi showdown at AGM
Italian phone carrier to avoid clash over chief reappointment as French conglomerate abstains

Telecom Italia’s management has averted a showdown with its top investor Vivendi as the French conglomerate said it would abstain on a vote to reappoint the group’s chief executive at a shareholder meeting on Tuesday.

Vivendi, which owns a 24 per cent stake in the Italian phone carrier, has challenged chief executive Pietro Labriola’s plan to split the group’s network from its services business and sell it to US private equity firm KKR in a bid to cut debt.

The French group, which has invested €4bn in Telecom Italia (TIM) since 2015 and has had to underwrite its investment, claims the €22bn deal undervalues the company.

Labriola is seeking a new term on Tuesday, with his reappointment being challenged by two minority investors who have presented alternative candidates. Other chief candidates put forward include former TIM executive Stefano Siragusa and Paris-based Google executive Laurence Lafont.

Vivendi was the main hurdle to Labriola’s reappointment, owing to the size of its stake, but in a statement the French group said it “does not wish to be associated with decisions concerning board appointments, as it considers it is incumbent on the ongoing management and its supporters to sort out the delicate situation in which TIM finds itself”.

Vivendi last year challenged Labriola’s plan to split the network in court on the grounds that it had not been put to a shareholder vote. Vivendi stopped short of asking the judge to put the deal on hold while the case was decided, however. The case is likely to take years to settle and Vivendi said it would continue to challenge the company’s decision.

The Italian government, which has veto power over deals involving national strategic assets such as telecommunications infrastructure, approved the deal in January. The transaction, which envisages the finance ministry taking a 20 per cent stake in the network company, is likely to be finalised over the summer. 

However, Labriola came under pressure last month after it emerged during an earnings call that debt was going to come down at a slower pace than analysts had expected, sending shares down

Also last month, the Financial Times reported that short sellers — who typically borrow shares to sell them, buying them back later to profit from a decline — had amassed a record €1bn bet against TIM. 

Investor Merlyn Partners, which holds a 0.53 per cent stake in TIM, has proposed a competing plan envisaging six different scenarios. Merlyn said it was “an alternative path . . . to make sure that the much-needed deleveraging happens as soon as possible”.

Four of the six scenarios envisaged the network sale to KKR, which Merlyn had sought to block last year, and one estimated TIM could be left with more than €6bn in cash and no debt by selling its profitable Brazilian unit and its Italian consumer business. The Italian government, workers unions and the outgoing management are opposed to any further fragmentation of the business beyond the network sale.

Italy’s public investor Cassa Depositi e Prestiti holds a 10 per cent stake in the group and it is yet to disclose the list of candidates it is backing.

Activist Bluebell Partners, which has previously taken on the likes of Solvay, Glencore, Danone and BlackRock, has proposed Google executive Lafont for chief. It has also lodged a complaint against TIM’s list of board candidates with Italy’s financial regulator, Consob, claiming some of the proposed directors are not independent.

Le Monde : Jeux olympiques : dans un document, l’Etat s’inquiète de « l’ampleur

Jeux olympiques : dans un document, l’Etat s’inquiète de « l’ampleur des défaillances » en matière de sécurité privée
Dans le compte rendu de la réunion du comité ministériel des Jeux olympiques et paralympiques du 15 avril, consulté par « Le Monde », les pouvoirs publics soulignent les carences du Comité d’organisation en matière de sécurité privée. Et prévoient de remplacer les vigiles par des policiers et des gendarmes pour la cérémonie d’ouverture.

« Ça ne m’inquiète pas pour l’instant. » Dimanche 21 avril, commentant sur BFM-TV la pénurie annoncée d’agents de sécurité privée à l’occasion des Jeux olympiques et paralympiques (JOP), le préfet de police de Paris, Laurent Nuñez, se veut rassurant. La lecture du compte rendu de la réunion du comité ministériel des JOP, organisée six jours plus tôt, le lundi 15 avril, offre une vision autrement pessimiste de la question, résumée par une phrase de ce document, consulté par Le Monde : « L’Etat ne peut se satisfaire de l’ampleur de ces défaillances. » Pour le comité d’organisation des Jeux olympiques (Cojop), chargé de sécuriser les sites officiels, le coup de semonce est sérieux.

Marchés publics non attribués, défaut de prévision, absence de solutions alternatives : face à ce constat accablant, le document préconise une reprise en main des opérations par l’Etat afin de « sécuriser la cérémonie » – une décision politique qui n’aurait pas encore été formellement actée, selon nos sources. Dans ce scénario, et pour environ huit journées, policiers et gendarmes remplaceraient les agents de sécurité privée initialement chargés d’assurer la gestion des sites officiels de l’événement et, notamment, les quais bas de la Seine, où sont attendus 104 000 des 326 000 spectateurs le long des six kilomètres de parade fluviale le 26 juillet, date de la cérémonie d’ouverture. A moins de cent jours du début de la compétition, les « enjeux de sécurité mais aussi des enjeux de réputation du pays » se font pressants : pour le jour J, pas moins de 1 400 postes d’agents sont encore non pourvus et, sur les trente lots de sécurisation proposés par voie de marchés publics, six seulement avaient été attribués.

« Nous n’avons pas réussi à convaincre les entreprises et alors qu’une quatrième vague d’appels d’offres a été lancée [le 16 novembre 2023], la plus grande partie des lots n’a pas trouvé preneur », admet Bruno le Ray, directeur sécurité de Paris 2024, qui « ne confirme pas » avoir été avisé de la reprise en main de la sécurité par l’Etat le jour de la cérémonie d’ouverture. « Il faut relativiser ce sujet, ajoute-t-il : dans toutes les éditions des Jeux, l’Etat a suppléé la sécurité privée, surtout en raison de besoins absolument hors normes. A ce stade, rien n’est exclu : l’Etat prendra ses responsabilités à un moment ou à un autre et tout ça ne pourra se faire qu’avec l’organisateur. »

Cette prise en charge de la sécurité de certaines zones par l’Etat, même partielle et temporaire, occasionnerait un considérable surcoût pour l’organisateur des Jeux, les deux parties étant liées par un protocole limpide : la responsabilité de l’accès et de la sécurité à l’intérieur des sites officiels incombant au Cojop, l’Etat ne peut s’y substituer qu’en cas de défaillance avérée, uniquement pour les missions les plus critiques (gestion des accès, inspection et filtrage des véhicules et des piétons, protection des enceintes) et aux frais de Paris 2024.

« Clarifier les règles d’emploi des forces armées »
Mais, avant même de régler l’addition, où trouver la ressource humaine pour relever un tel défi ? Afin d’éviter de solliciter davantage police et gendarmerie, dont 45 000 membres seront déployés le jour de l’inauguration des Jeux et 30 000 en moyenne pour toute la durée des épreuves, les pouvoirs publics se sont tournés vers le ministère des armées. Avec, ont-ils constaté, un succès mitigé. Les militaires, « réticents à s’engager pleinement », n’acceptent ainsi d’être mobilisés qu’à deux conditions. La première : piocher exclusivement dans le vivier des 10 000 militaires affectés à la force Sentinelle (6 800 pour les missions de patrouille et 3 200 pour des opérations de logistique ou de sécurité aérienne), afin d’éviter d’avoir à acheminer puis loger des milliers de soldats supplémentaires en Ile-de-France.

La deuxième est plus délicate : n’intervenir qu’à titre subsidiaire et pour des missions d’ordre public normalement dévolues aux forces de l’ordre. Autrement dit, les soldats de la force Sentinelle accompliraient les missions des policiers et des gendarmes, eux-mêmes chargés de remplacer les agents de sécurité. Le tout, sous réserve de « clarifier les règles d’emploi des forces armées », les militaires n’étant pas habilités à exercer les mêmes prérogatives que les forces de sécurité intérieure. Un véritable casse-tête.

Cette absence d’attributaires pour les marchés de sécurité privée n’a pas d’impact, du reste, sur la seule cérémonie d’ouverture. La porte ouest du Stade de France, le Trocadéro ou Châteauroux, où se dérouleront les épreuves de tir sportif, sont également concernés. Or, sans solution avant une date fixée au plus tard le 15 mai, l’Etat a d’ores et déjà annoncé son intention de se substituer au Cojop, une éventualité qui ne paraît plus faire de doutes pour les deux sites franciliens du Stade de France et du Trocadéro : « Par anticipation », précise le compte rendu, il est prévu de « donner mandat au préfet de police et au gouverneur militaire de Paris de travailler sur l’hypothèse d’une défaillance ».

Au-delà de ces difficultés dites « structurelles », l’Etat redoute le risque d’une défaillance « conjoncturelle ». L’expression désigne le cas de sociétés attributaires de marchés publics qui feraient défaut avant même la tenue de la compétition, faute de disposer d’employés en nombre suffisant. Le problème n’est pas récent, il a même été identifié depuis de longs mois par les sociétés du secteur ou la Cour des comptes. Son président, Pierre Moscovici, avait alerté, dans un rapport d’étape sur l’organisation des Jeux olympiques présenté devant la commission de la culture, de la communication et de l’éducation du Sénat en janvier 2023, sur la menace d’une « carence probable de la sécurité privée », une mise en garde réitérée au mois de juillet suivant. A l’époque, le sénateur écologiste des Bouches-du-Rhône Guy Benarroche avait considéré « le risque de ne jamais atteindre le nombre d’agents de sécurité privée » comme « évident ».

Manque d’effectifs préoccupant
Mais, alors que l’Etat a demandé au Cojop d’identifier « les entreprises les plus fragiles », et donc les plus susceptibles de ne pouvoir assurer leurs missions faute d’employés, celui-ci « n[’y] parvient pas, à ce jour, ou ne veut pas établir une hypothèse de défaillance conjoncturelle », indique encore le document. Les remontées en provenance de plusieurs sites, dont certains revêtent une importance stratégique, illustrent pourtant un manque d’effectifs préoccupant. C’est notamment le cas à Paris-Centre (la zone Concorde-Champs-de-Mars-Invalides-Trocadéro), Marseille (pour la Marina et le Vélodrome) ainsi que d’autres villes comme Saint-Etienne et Nantes, qui accueilleront des rencontres de football.

Le Cojop est donc sommé d’« accompagner ses attributaires dans la recherche de sous-traitance ou constater avec eux, contractuellement, que leurs obligations doivent être revues à la baisse pour pouvoir, de gré à gré, trouver de nouveaux partenaires ou adapter les dispositifs prévus ». En d’autres termes : tenter, en quelques semaines, de trouver des solutions juridiques et techniques à un problème insolubles depuis plusieurs mois.

Reste le dernier écueil, celui du « no show », c’est-à-dire le défaut de présentation des agents de sécurité sur leur lieu de travail. « Ces défaillances sont habituelles dans le secteur et peuvent monter jusqu’à 20 % ou 30 % à l’instant T pour une épreuve », s’inquiète le compte rendu du comité ministériel. Dans le cas des Jeux olympiques, cet aléa courant dans la profession pourrait encore être aggravé par des conditions de travail décourageantes en pleine période estivale et des difficultés liées aux transports en raison de « l’absence de mise à disposition de logement aux agents engagés sur les événements parisiens et franciliens ». Existe-t-il des prévisions fiables sur ce point ? « C’est au Cojop de nous faire part de ces estimations hautes et basses, conclut le rapport. Il ne l’a jamais fait. »

L’un des rares chiffres avancés par le comité d’organisation des Jeux olympiques remonte au 27 mars. Ce jour-là, son président, Tony Estanguet, avait fait montre d’une belle assurance en estimant que 97 % des besoins en sécurité privée étaient « contractuellement couverts ». Cette proportion atteint dorénavant « l’équivalent de 98 % [des besoins] », selon le Cojop, contacté par Le Monde, mardi, et « des négociations de gré à gré étaient menées pour atteindre les 100 % ». « Nous travaillons en étroite collaboration avec France Travail et le Cnaps [Conseil national des activités privées de sécurité], précise encore l’organisateur des Jeux, afin d’accompagner l’ensemble des entreprises lauréates de nos appels d’offres, notamment sur la formation et le recrutement de leurs effectifs. »

Business Of Fashion : Can Celine Work Without Hedi Slimane?

Can Celine Work Without Hedi Slimane?
After growing the brand’s annual sales to nearly €2.5 billion, the star designer has been locked in a thorny contract negotiation with owner LVMH that could lead to his exit, sources say. BoF breaks down what Slimane brought to Celine and what his departure could mean.

PARIS — For months, Celine designer Hedi Slimane has been engaged in a thorny contract negotiation with owner LVMH that could lead to the designer’s departure from the brand, sources familiar with the matter say.

Since LVMH chairman Bernard Arnault installed Slimane six years ago, the star designer has transformed Celine, launching menswear (leaning into his trademark skinny silhouette), perfume and, most recently, beauty, in addition to reconnecting its womenswear image to the house’s historic identity as a purveyor of leather goods that incarnate Parisian bourgeois style.

At first, sales dropped as Slimane pivoted sharply away from predecessor Phoebe Philo’s minimalist, arty look. But since the pandemic, Celine’s business has surged to record highs. While owner LVMH does not regularly disclose sales for individual brands, Celine’s revenues surpassed €2 billion ($2.1 billion) in 2023, the company told investors in January. The brand’s full-year results were likely closer to €2.5 billion, meaning it had surpassed Fendi to become LVMH’s third-largest fashion label, behind only Louis Vuitton and Dior, according to HSBC.

Despite the strong results, sources say Slimane may be on the way out, adding credence to a recent by Miss Tweed saying Slimane is set to leave the brand. Representatives for LVMH and Celine declined to comment.

The Two Sides of Hedi Slimane
Slimane is a rare talent. Known as the industry’s best stylist, he has generated perfectly precise fashion images since his trendsetting turn at Dior Homme in the early 2000s, when he helped usher in a decade-long trend cycle with his skinny silhouette. His approach to branding and merchandising invokes the strategies of French fashion heavyweights, with ultra-consistent, minimalist art direction that echoes Karl Lagerfeld — especially when shooting Celine’s black-and-white campaigns himself — and commercial collections that blend street style and luxury à la Yves Saint Laurent.

“Hedi is a genius of marketing, product and merchandising. He knows how to create that jacket, that shoe,” said Alice Bouleau, partner at executive search firm Sterling International. “It’s not overly intellectual; it’s not as subtle as what Phoebe was doing, but he really grasped the essence of what this brand was about.”

But Slimane’s considerable talent has come with financial and creative demands to match.

In addition to commanding what’s understood to be a historically high salary for a designer, he’s also notorious for seeking royalties on all manner of creative output from campaign images to perfume formulas and more.

A true auteur despite his commercial savvy, Slimane expects complete creative control over a broad sweep of subjects — not just what goes in collections, but when and how they are shown, as well as to whom, and the environment in which they are sold.

That can lead to big results and fast, but only when the investment dollars are flowing freely. Since Slimane joined Celine, teams have spent countless hours, and company funds, ferrying samples back and forth to his home in St. Tropez, where he regularly holes up. Projects often reach an advanced stage before getting axed by the reclusive Slimane, creating frustration and high turnover in senior teams.

Shows and media can also be a sticking point. The brand has largely eschewed in-person runway shows in favour of fashion films that take months and millions of dollars to shoot. These are then released online without warning, limiting opportunities for editorial coverage (and, ultimately, visibility with consumers). When Slimane does stage an in-person show, influential guests are often absent. In addition to favouring off-calendar presentations at moments when editors and influencers are not around, since 2021 the brand has outright boycotted Vogue and its sister publications at Condé Nast in protest of the company’s cost-cutting move to oust regional editors-in-chief, including his longtime friend and collaborator Emmanuelle Alt, formerly editor-in-chief of Vogue Paris.

Slowing Market
As luxury’s demand cools following a multi-year surge, it may be difficult for LVMH to justify the investment Slimane requires at one of its smaller brands. LVMH’s fashion and leather goods growth slowed to 2 percent in the first quarter, its slowest quarter since 2020.

“There’s a normalisation of growth right now that has led LVMH to become more cost-conscious. It could be more difficult to justify having a small brand where [the designer] is getting whatever they want; it can create tensions,” HSBC analyst Aurélie Husson-Dumoutier said.

The idiosyncratic creative rhythm at Celine won’t make it easy for teams to navigate a rocky luxury market. The brand’s latest collection, inspired by Paris in the 1960s and the Arc de Triomphe, was dropped in a fashion film in mid-March. The slick collection of baby-doll dresses and riding hats made for an eye-catching departure from Slimane’s usual fare at Celine, which leans more often into denim- and shearling-heavy references from the 1970s. But it’s unclear whether clients will take notice. Nearly 150,000 people have streamed the video on YouTube, far fewer than for the show footage of similar-sized brands that staged physical activations during fashion week. (Loewe logged 375,000 views; Saint Laurent more than one million.) The brand hasn’t staged a physical event since January last year.

Slimane may have his own motivations for parting ways with Celine: He could have another, bigger job lined up — inside or outside LVMH — or he could simply want to do other things with his life. Following his tenure at Saint Laurent, Slimane took owner Kering to court to prevent the group from scrapping his lengthy non-compete, allowing him to bring in a multi-million dollar salary while not working in fashion for three years. The designer lived primarily in Malibu and focused on his photography practice.

Celine After Hedi
A unique talent Slimane may be, but Kering’s Saint Laurent offers a case study in how a brand can continue to thrive in his wake. Following the designer’s 2016 departure, the brand gradually updated its womenswear collections and products under his successor, Anthony Vaccarello. But much of the framework that Slimane put in place, including pared-back branding, a monochromatic store concept and a skinny, rocker silhouette for men, remained in place as sales roughly doubled to €2 billion in the three years following his exit.

LVMH could take a similar tack at Celine should Slimane leave the brand. The template he has put in place at the label is commercially potent and broadly relatable, yet still differentiated: with an accessories program that has conquered Millennial bourgeoises far beyond Paris. The look is more grown-up than rival Saint Laurent, and more urban than Chloé's. While plenty of contemporary brands specialise in Parisienne wardrobe dressing, Celine is the only one to do so convincingly in the luxury space, and to style its wares with such a high-fashion touch.

LVMH could certainly slot in a new designer to add a dose of innovation and accelerate the pace of communications while sticking to its core branding and commercial strategy. Plenty of buyers of Celine’s Triomphe bags and monogrammed canvas cardholders are unlikely to know who Slimane is, after all, even if they appreciate the brand he’s effectively made his own.

“Hedi has set such a clear formula that someone else could continue to build on it, even someone who’s not as much of a star designer,” headhunter Bouleau said. A bolder approach to succession could also pay off, “but would be a big risk.”

“LVMH tends to put less emphasis on the designer — it’s always the brand that comes first,” HSBC’s Dumoutier said. “What Hedi has put in place can survive him.”

On the other hand, much of Slimane’s magic is in the execution. Updating and reissuing vintage pieces from lines like YSL Rive Gauche and its contemporaries is Slimane’s modus operandi — but they are styled and shot with a luxurious sheen. Losing Slimane the designer also means losing Slimane, the stylist and photographer. Those are enormous shoes to fill.

Luxury Turf War
Whether Hedi ultimately moves on or stays, it won’t have been an easy negotiation for LVMH and its chairman Bernard Arnault, who is seeking to balance a long-term vision for elevating his brands with cost-cutting efforts to protect the company’s bottom line in a slowing market.

After decades of snapping up luxury houses and real estate to expand his edge on competitors, 75-year-old Arnault and his children have become increasingly focused on retaining their access to creative talent, as well. Where star designers used to cycle in and out of LVMH and rival groups, in recent years the company has increasingly sought to move designers around within its ranks (as in the case of Kim Jones, who led Louis Vuitton menswear before taking on Dior Homme, then eventually adding Fendi womenswear to his duties).

LVMH may feel even more pressure to keep Slimane after talks with another rare talent — Alessandro Michele — fell apart, according to sources, leading the former Gucci designer to take up a role at Mayhoola’s Valentino. Meanwhile, LVMH’s Givenchy label has yet to name a designer since parting ways with creative director Matthew Williams in January.

FT : De Beers’ diamond output drops after slow recovery triggers production cut

De Beers’ diamond output drops after slow recovery triggers production cut
Anglo American unit’s output down 23% as luxury pullback and emergence of lab-grown gems take toll

Diamond output for De Beers slumped 23 per cent in the first quarter, as production was cut in response to a slow recovery in demand amid a pullback in luxury spending and the proliferation of lab-grown equivalents.

De Beers was the only unit of Anglo American to adjust its full-year production forecast on Tuesday, reducing its guided range to 26mn to 29mn carats of output, from 29mn to 32mn, and lifting expected average costs to $90 per carat, from $80.

Anglo American said the diamond market was suffering from a price rout caused by excess piles of inventory, something that De Beers has previously acknowledged is partly down to lab-grown diamonds cannibalising demand for mined stones.

“Ongoing uncertainty around economic growth prospects has led to a continued cautious purchasing approach” by its customers, Anglo American said. “The recovery in rough diamond demand is expected to be gradual through the rest of the year,” it added.

De Beers said a nascent recovery had begun in the first quarter, buoyed by improved demand for diamond jewellery around Christmas and new year in the US.

Diamond producers including De Beers’ arch-rival, Russia’s Alrosa, tried to curb the flow of gemstones into the market in the second half of last year. The Indian government even put on a voluntary import moratorium on rough stones in the final quarter to protect its polishers and cutters.

Despite those continued efforts into this year, demand, prices and the market recovery remains sluggish, Anglo said, requiring further action to be taken to reduce supply.

Anglo American chief executive Duncan Wanblad has been under pressure to improve performance since a production downgrade in December sent shares tumbling, although it has been aided by higher commodity prices, especially for copper.

Wanblad has said that “nothing is off the table” when it comes to asset sales or other options to restructure units, of which De Beers and the platinum group metals division are the most troubled.

“We are progressing through our asset review to optimise value by simplifying and improving the overall quality of the portfolio,” he said in a statement in the first-quarter production update on Tuesday.

Shares in Anglo American dropped 1.7 per cent in early trading in London and remain about a third lower than they were at the start of 2023.

Besides diamonds, the London-based company managed to maintain its guidance across its other commodities such as copper, iron ore and steelmaking coal.

Copper output jumped 11 per cent to 198,100 tonnes, helped by record throughput at its Quellaveco mine in Peru and higher grades at its Chilean mines Collahuasi and El Soldado.

South Africa, where Anglo American has iron ore, steelmaking coal and platinum mines, has become an increasing drag on production because of crippling problems in the logistics and power sector. Rail constraints resulted in a 2 per cent drop in output at Kumba Iron Ore.

FT : Ardian agrees to sell Audiotonix stake to PAI in near £2bn deal

Ardian agrees to sell Audiotonix stake to PAI in near £2bn deal
Transaction for UK music equipment maker is the latest example of buyout activity picking up

French private equity firm Ardian has agreed a near £2bn deal to sell a majority stake in UK music equipment maker Audiotonix to rival PAI Partners, in the latest example of buyout activity picking up after a slow 18 months.

The deal is expected to be announced later this week, according to people familiar with the matter.

With buyouts usually financed by debt, concerns over higher interest rates had prompted many investment groups to pause striking new deals. However, debt markets have picked up in recent months and groups have come under growing pressure to deploy cash raised from their investors after a prolonged spell sitting on the sidelines.

Fund administration company Alter Domus and IT business Presidio are among large companies that have traded between private equity groups in deals worth more than $4bn each.

Founded in 2014, Audiotonix makes sound equipment for concerts and other live events, and has proven a popular and lucrative target for private equity firms. 

Based in Chessington, south-west London, Audiotonix was created through the merger of three businesses, DiGiCo, Allen & Heath and Calrec. DiGiCo equipment was used in a concert to celebrate the late Queen’s platinum jubilee in 2022, as well as by pop stars including Natalie Imbruglia. 

French private equity group Astorg bought the business in a deal worth £350mn in 2017 before selling it on to Ardian for almost €1bn two years later. 

Under Ardian’s ownership, the company has grown both organically and through acquisitions which have expanded its footprint in large markets such as the US. 

Last year, the business bought companies including US-based music production software manufacturer Harrison, whose music-mixing consoles have been used to record songs by artists from Michael Jackson to Abba. 

Audiotonix generated about £270mn of revenues last year, a near 60 per cent increase on the £169mn generated the previous year, according to Companies House filings. 

The company was badly affected by the global pandemic when live music and entertainment events were largely shut down. Sales and profits which declined sharply during this period, have bounced back strongly since then.

European private equity group PAI Partners last year raised about €7bn for its latest flagship buyout fund. The group invests in companies in Europe and North America. Some of its investments include a stake in Froneri, one of the world’s largest ice cream companies. 

Ardian and PAI declined to comment.