FT : Activist behind US court shift launches $1bn crusade to ‘crush’ liberal Ame

Activist behind US court shift launches $1bn crusade to ‘crush’ liberal America
Leonard Leo was architect of effort to secure conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court

The conservative activist who led the crusade to overhaul the US legal system is making a $1bn push to “crush liberal dominance” across corporate America and in the country’s news and entertainment sectors.

In a rare interview, Leonard Leo, the architect of the rightward shift on the Supreme Court under Donald Trump, said his non-profit advocacy group, the Marble Freedom Trust, was ready to confront the private sector in addition to the government.

“We need to crush liberal dominance where it’s most insidious, so we’ll direct resources to build talent and capital formation pipelines in the areas of news and entertainment, where leftwing extremism is most evident,” Leo told the Financial Times.

“Expect us to increase support for organisations that call out companies and financial institutions that bend to the woke mind virus spread by regulators and NGOs, so that they have to pay a price for putting extreme leftwing ideology ahead of consumers,” he said.

Leo has spent more than two decades at the influential Federalist Society, guiding conservative judges into the federal courts and the Supreme Court itself. In 2018, conservative justice Clarence Thomas joked that Leo was the third most important person in the world.

Leo’s efforts culminated under Trump’s presidency, when three Federalist Society-backed judges were appointed to give conservatives on the Supreme Court a 6-3 supermajority, and profound influence over US law. The court has since then ruled to overturn the right to an abortion, among other long-sought rightwing causes.

In 2020, after Trump lost the election, Leo stepped back from running the daily operations of the Federalist Society, while remaining its co-chair.

The following year, Leo founded Marble, with a $1.6bn donation from electronic device manufacturing mogul Barre Seid, to be a counterweight to what he said was “dark money” of the left. He spent about $600mn in its first three years, according to public financial disclosures. 

Leo said his goal was to find “very leveraged, impactful ways of reintroducing limited constitutional government and a civil society premised on freedom and personal responsibility and the virtues of western civilisation”.

The $1bn money machine is now funding the conservative mission against private institutions, opposing diversity, equity and inclusion policies, climate and social concerns in investing and the “debanking” of politically conservative customers, in addition to taking on the public sector.

The non-profit is increasingly interested in launching campaigns against “woke” banks and China-friendly companies involved in everything from food production to autonomous vehicles in the US and potentially Europe.

Leo also intends to invest in a US local media company in the next 12 months, although he has not decided which, and is building conservative coalitions through groups such as Teneo Network, a club with chapters across the country.

He also confirmed that Marble had since 2021 helped fund organisations that launched campaigns against companies with DEI, ESG and other initiatives, including BlackRock, Vanguard, American Airlines, Coca-Cola, State Farm, Major League Baseball and Ticketmaster.

This year, Marble aided a variety of conservative groups in their campaigns against TikTok on the grounds that it was a threat to children and US national security. President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan bill to force TikTok’s Chinese parent company to divest from the video-sharing platform.

Leo’s rise to be among the US’s most powerful conservatives has drawn scrutiny from liberal attorneys and Democratic politicians. Earlier this year, he refused to comply with a subpoena from Senate Democrats investigating undisclosed gifts to Thomas and Justice Samuel Alito revealed by ProPublica. 

In 2020, Leo joined the for-profit public advocacy firm CRC Advisors. Bloomberg has reported that an array of non-profits have paid CRC at least $69mn since Leo became its co-owner and chair.

While Marble funds Trump-aligned advocacy groups, it is not donating money to sway the 2024 presidential election, Leo said. The non-profit is instead helping the Republican effort to end the Democratic majority in the Senate, which confirms judges and justices.

“The political environment is more topsy-turvy and more uncertain than it’s ever been in my lifetime,” said Leo. “Political investing is not as good a bet as it used to be.”

Miss Tweed : The luxury party started in India. As China slows, brands can’t aff

The luxury party started in India. As China slows, brands can’t afford to miss out

Favre Leuba is one of the oldest Swiss watch brands together with Swatch Group’s Blancpain. Everyone knows Blancpain but few remember Favre Leuba which had its heyday in the 1960s and 1970s. The descendants of the Favre family sold it in the 1980s, it belonged to LVMH in the 1990s and afterwards successive shareholders never managed to properly resuscitate the brand and make it reach its full potential.

Today a new chapter is opening for Favre Leuba under the controlling ownership of the KDDL group that runs India’s largest watch retailer Ethos. In a sign of the seriousness given to the relaunch, the new owners hired industry veteran of Patrik Hoffmann, former CEO of Ulysse Nardin. Hoffmann presented the newly revived Favre Leuba watch collection at the Geneva Watch Days earlier this month. It included vintage models from the 1960s and 1970s as well as new designs.

Industry watchers may regard Favre Leuba as yet another revival like Gerald Genta and Daniel Roth led by LVMH scion Jean Arnault or Universal Geneve spearheaded by Breitling CEO Georges Kern. But Favre Leuba presents a unique twist. It’s the first historic Swiss watch brand using India as the launchpad of its return. It will open its first mono-brand boutique not in Geneva or Zurich but in Mumbai or Delhi in the next few months. Starting in November, the brand’s first batch of watches will hit multi-brand stores around the world and sell online as well.

Focusing on India makes sense. Not only because Favre Leuba’s biggest shareholder is Indian group KDDL. The brand has historically had a big presence in India. It was the first Swiss watch brand to enter India in 1865 and it remained popular until the 1970s. Young people may not remember the name but those in their 40s and 50s will. Their father or grandfather owned a Favre Leuba and some of them are probably still wearing it.

POTENTIAL
“Two or three years ago, people did not realize the potential of India, now the whole world is talking about it,” Hoffmann told Miss Tweed at the Geneva Watch Days. As growth in China slows down and luxury spending has collapsed, particularly for high-end fashion and watches, India still presents a growth opportunity. The country’s GDP is expected to increase more than 7 per cent annually, outpacing forecasts of 5 percent growth in China. India is set to become the world’s third-largest economy and consumer market by 2027.

India has a strong culture of wealth and it is developing rapidly. As new wealth is growing, the potential buyer base is expanding beyond Indian aristocracy and established old business families. Luxury enthusiasts include young entrepreneurs, investors and high-profile executives. Now is the time to double up on India.

In recent months, many luxury brands have opened or enlarged existing boutiques. In November, Kering’s Brioni opened its first ever shop in India at the Chanakya luxury shopping mall in New Delhi.

In April, Hermès opened its third boutique at the glitzy Jio World Plaza, inaugurated last year in Mumbai. Many big brands including Richemont’s Cartier, Kering’s Gucci, Balenciaga, Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta, as well as LVMH’s Bulgari and Tiffany & Co and Louis Vuitton also opened a shop there.

Mumbai counts the third-largest population of millionaires after New York and Shanghai. It’s the place to be for luxury brands. Jio World Plaza is the brainchild of Isha Ambani, daughter of India’s richest man Mukesh Ambani, who is chairman and managing director of the Reliance Industries empire. This year, Ambani held for his youngest son Anant the most extravagant wedding in recent history, lasting several months and attended by world leaders, CEOs, celebrities and Bollywood megastars.

The celebrations, estimated to have cost more than a $1 billion, included a three-day pre-wedding bash in the Western Indian coastal town of Jamnagar in March—which featured a private concert by Rihanna—and another ceremony in Mumbai with a Justin Bieber live performance. There was a party on a boat off Portofino. Guests were flown in private jets and the nearby Genoa airport was taken over for a week. The boat roamed about cities around the Mediterranean, holding parties with celebrities in every stop from Barcelona to Palermo, Rome and Cannes.

A video went viral showing some 10 witnesses and close friends receiving a Perpetual Calendar Audemars Piguet Royal Oak watch costing more than €100,000.

The over-the-top wedding is often cited as a good example of India’s voracious appetite for luxury. “India is becoming a global luxury destination and the Ambani wedding was a step in that direction,” explains Indian designer Rahul Mishra, the first Indian designer to show during Couture Week in Paris. Mishra dressed many people who attended the Ambani wedding including Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg. “The Ambani wedding was great for the Indian economy,” Mishra told Miss Tweed, adding he knew many people, particularly craftsmen and small businesses who got work thanks to the event.

“Over the past ten years, the perception of India has changed dramatically and Indian brands are now encouraged to grow,” Mishra said. This week, Mishra will unveil in London a collection he designed for the Italian leather goods maker Tod’s. Like Tod’s, other western brands are tying up with Indian designers to widen their reach. In March, Estée Lauder launched a lipstick designed by Indian designer Sabyasachi Mukherjee. Sabyasachi, a major name in Indian fashion, is expected to see his brand’s revenue pass the €100 million mark this year, local industry sources say. Last year, Dior staged its first fashion show in Mumbai during which it celebrated India’s traditions of embroidery and craftsmanship. It has also launched a Lady Dior bag with an elephant on it targeting Indian consumers. Galeries Lafayette is planing to open two department stores in India, one in New Delhi in 2025 and one in Mumbai in 2026.

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
The number of millionaires and affluent middle-class people in India is growing exponentially. This year, it overtook China as the biggest population in the world. It is expected to count 1.5 billion people by 2030. It’s also a young, connected population with a high birth rate.

“We will see significant growth in the luxury space in India over the next five to ten years,” Euan Rellie, co-founder of investment bank boutique BDA Partners predicted at the Luxury at the Summit by Miss Tweed in Val d’Isère in April. “Today is India’s moment. You’re going to see a strong acceleration of India culturally, politically and even militarily. India is a nuclear power now and is the fourth-biggest defense spender in the world.”

Richemont’s Van Cleef & Arpels is looking to enter India in the next two years, according to Indian luxury industry sources. Meanwhile, Cartier already has two boutiques and has plans for more, they say. Cartier has a person in charge of the Indian diaspora around the world, which is mainly concentrated in the Middle East, the U.S. West Coast and Great Britain. Cartier has understood that Indians travelling and shopping abroad represent a strategic clientele. The French jeweler regularly organizes events just for them. “The smart brands are those brands who know how to engage with the Indian consumer globally,” said Rellie from BDA Partners.

Last week, independent watchmaker Breitling opened a boutique in Bangalore, its second in the country and it has plans for two more.

Kering’s Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta and Gucci are also expanding in the country and looking for the best spots in malls. Same for LVMH’s brands. Louis Vuitton has three boutiques in India, Dior has only one. When asked about India, Chanel told Miss Tweed it had five standalone boutiques in India including four in the New Delhi region and one in Mumbai. However, only one sells fashion, the others sell only perfume and beauty products.

“At Chanel we are always reviewing markets around the world where we want to further develop,” the brand said in an email. “However, we don’t have any specific updates to share at this time.”

India’s potential for luxury lies more in watches, jewellery, handbags and shoes than ready-to-wear though appetite for that category is growing fast, Indian specialists say.

The growth rate of jewellery brands such as Bulgari, Cartier and Tiffany & Co is in the high double digits in India, local industry sources say. However, they start from a low base. While Swiss watch exports to India are now 1-2 percent, compared with more than 30 percent to China, some industry experts predict India could represent up to 10 percent in ten years’ time.

CHINA VERSUS INDIA
In India, the affluent middle class is rising fast, but for the moment it’s not as big as China’s. It may never be. Consumers are not as eager to spend as were the young Chinese 10 to 20 years ago when they became millionaires overnight with mobile applications and real estate deals, luxury experts say. “The Indians love their heritage, their jewellery, their silks, saris and perfumes,” points out Bénédicte Épinay, managing director of the French luxury association Comité Colbert. “They do not have a huge urge to westernize themselves like the Chinese twenty years ago, but the middle class is becoming increasingly open to adopting Western luxury brands and culture.” In response to luxury brand’s growing interest in India, Comité Colbert is organizing a conference in Paris in early October during which the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) will present a study on luxury in India. Chanel CEO Leena Nair, of Indian descent, will speak via a video link.

In contrast with China’s socialist values, India has a cultural understanding of luxury, owing to the legacy of maharajas and the tradition of lavish weddings, India experts say. It is socially accepted in India to flaunt your wealth and success. By contrast, China has been cracking down on people showing off their lavish lifestyle on social media as part of a wider campaign to show restraint and the communist party’s efforts to achieve “common prosperity.”

“We are really at the beginning of luxury brands entering India,” explains Pierre-François Marteau from BCG in Paris. “It’s been a slow start”. For more than two decades, luxury brands have been looking at India. But there was too much red tape, corruption and too few malls or chic areas where they could open a boutique. Also, import duties remain above 20 percent and rates vary depending on which region products are sold, making exports even more complicated.

In March, India signed an agreement with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) whose members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. It plans to phase out the current tax of more than 20 percent to zero over the next seven years. This will make Swiss watches much more affordable in India. Currently, retailers take a margin cut to compensate but prices are on average still 5-10 percent higher than in Switzerland.

While there is much enthusiasm about India, the country’s luxury market is never going to be as big as China’s, experts predict. “In terms of size, India cannot be the new China,” explains Marteau. “If India represents a top 10 market in five to 10 years, brands will be happy, I think.”

India is not equipped yet with the same infrastructure as China in terms of public roads, digital links, high streets and malls, but things are changing rapidly.

Today in India, there are about five malls who can welcome top luxury brands, but that number is set to rise as new malls are being built or refurbished and not only in the two big shopping meccas that are New Delhi and Mumbai but also in other regions such as Bangalore, Calcutta and Chennai, cities full of affluent shoppers eager to spend money on luxury goods.

The Indian luxury party only got started. Luxury brands cannot afford to ignore it.

FT : Iran ships ‘hundreds’ of ballistic missiles to Russia

Iran ships ‘hundreds’ of ballistic missiles to Russia
Delivery of weaponry to Moscow marks ‘dramatic escalation’ in war against Ukraine, warn Kyiv and western officials

Iran has sent “hundreds” of ballistic missiles to Russia in what Kyiv officials said marks a “serious escalation” of Tehran’s support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. 

“More than 200” Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles arrived in a Russian Caspian Sea port this week, according to senior Ukrainian officials familiar with the matter.

The surface-to-surface missiles have a range of up to 120km and are likely to be used by Russia to strike infrastructure and northern cities close to the border, such as Kharkiv and Sumy, and troop positions and military targets along the frontline, including around the strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk, according to the Ukrainian officials. 

The officials said the delivery of the Iranian short-range missiles will allow Russia to deploy its long-range hypersonic Kinzhal missiles — some of the most sophisticated weapons in the Kremlin’s arsenal — to hit targets deeper inside Ukraine. The Kinzhals are more difficult to intercept, with only US-made Patriot air defence systems capable of shooting them down.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defence minister and director of the Kyiv-based Centre for Defence Strategies, said the Iranian missiles pose a “huge threat”.

“They will be sent to destroy the Ukrainian energy system, most likely in towns and cities,” he said. “That most likely means more deaths of civilians all over the country.”

The Wall Street Journal first reported the missile shipment, citing US and European officials.

Russia has escalated its attacks launching hundreds of missiles and Iranian-made “Shahed” attack drones on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in recent months, destroying 9GW of power generation capacity — half of the electricity Ukraine needs in winter — and causing widespread blackouts.

An Iranian-made Russian drone crashed in eastern Latvia on Sunday, with preliminary reports suggesting an accidental entry from Belarus, said officials in Riga.

On Saturday, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said it was deeply concerned about reports that Iran had sent the missiles to Russia and called on Tehran “to refrain from delivering any types of weapons and military equipment to Russia.” It said confirmation of the delivery would have “devastating consequences for Ukrainian-Iranian relations”.

In exchange for its drones and missiles, Tehran has received greater security co-operation from Moscow and military technology, according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments.

“The deepening of military-technical co-operation between Russia and Iran poses serious security threats not only for Ukraine, but for the whole of Europe, the Middle East and the world,” said the foreign ministry in Kyiv.

“We call on the international community to increase pressure on Tehran and Moscow to protect international peace and security.”

Ukraine’s western backers have not confirmed the delivery of Iranian missiles. But Sean Savett, a spokesperson at the US National Security Council, said on Sunday that Washington was alarmed by the reports and reiterated that together with allies, it was “prepared to deliver significant consequences”.

A transfer of ballistic missiles to Russia would “represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine”, said Savett, echoing comment by CIA director Bill Burns a day earlier at the Financial Times’ Weekend festival in London. “This partnership threatens European security and illustrates how Iran’s destabilising influence reaches beyond the Middle East.”

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, dismissed the allegations of missile sales as “completely baseless”, claiming they were fabricated by western states for “political purposes”.

Speaking to state news agency IRNA on Sunday, he said “Iran-Russia military co-operation predates the Ukraine war and has no connection to the Ukraine crisis”, adding: “The Islamic republic has never been involved in this military conflict and supports a political resolution to end the crisis.”

Russian officials could not immediately be reached for comment. G7 leaders warned Iran in March that sanctions would be imposed if it sent ballistic missiles to Russia.

The missile delivery is likely to fuel fresh pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for western partners to permit his forces to use long-range US Atacms, British Storm Shadow and French Scalp long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russian territory.

Zelenskyy made his latest request on Friday at a meeting with western defence ministers at Germany’s Ramstein air base, as he looks to increase pressure on Moscow to bring the 31-month war to an end.

FT : FT Masters in Management Ranking 2024: methodology and key

FT Masters in Management Ranking 2024: methodology and key
Learn how this year’s table was compiled

Top 25 schools
Here are some quick facts about the top schools in the ranking. By Sam Stephens

Rank 1
St Gallen has returned to the top spot — the 13th time the Swiss school has been number one.

Rank 3
Insead is the highest new entrant, straight into third place, with a top rank for alumni international work mobility.

Rank 5
Shanghai’s Antai is the highest ranked school outside Europe, aided by top 10 positions in the value for money, alumni network and career services categories.

Rank 6=
All recent Master in Management alumni at ESCP were employed within three months of course completion, one of 14 schools to achieve this feat.

Rank 6=
London Business School’s most recent class had the highest percentage of international students, with 99 per cent from abroad.

Rank 11
Bocconi in Milan is top in the carbon footprint metric, thanks in part to the institution being carbon neutral since 2020.

Rank 13
China’s Tongji University School of Economics and Management’s programme offers the best value for money.

Rank 15
Stockholm School of Economics is second for international course experience, based on the number of alumni studying and/or working for a month overseas.

Rank 17
Barcelona’s Iese and St Gallen in Switzerland were rated joint top by their alumni for course satisfaction, scoring 9.75 out of 10.

Rank 21 and 23
Spain’s IE and France’s Iéseg were the only schools in the top 25 to report gender parity within faculty.

Rank 25
Alumni of Luiss saw the highest salary increase at 95 per cent since course completion.


NYT : How Telegram Became a Playground for Criminals, Extremists and Terrorists


How Telegram Became a Playground for Criminals, Extremists and Terrorists
Drug dealers, scammers and white nationalists openly conduct business and spread toxic speech on the platform, according to a Times analysis of more than 3.2 million Telegram messages.

Telegram has become a global sewer of criminal activity, disinformation, child sexual abuse material, terrorism and racist incitement, according to a four-month investigation by The New York Times that analyzed more than 3.2 million Telegram messages from over 16,000 channels. The company, which offers features that enable criminals, terrorists and grifters to organize at scale and to sidestep scrutiny from the authorities, has looked the other way as illegal and extremist activities have flourished openly on the app.

The degree to which Telegram has been inundated by such content has not been previously reported. The Times investigation found 1,500 channels operated by white supremacists who coordinate activities among almost one million people around the world. At least two dozen channels sold weapons. In at least 22 channels with more than 70,000 followers, MDMA, cocaine, heroin and other drugs were advertised for delivery to more than 20 countries.

Hamas, ISIS and other terror groups have thrived on Telegram, often amassing large audiences across dozens of channels. The Times analyzed more than 40 channels associated with Hamas, which showed that average viewership surged up to 10 times after the Oct. 7 attacks, garnering more than 400 million views in October.

Telegram is “the most popular place for ill-intentioned, violent actors to congregate,” said Rebecca Weiner, the deputy commissioner for intelligence and counterterrorism at the New York Police Department. “If you’re a bad guy, that’s where you will land.”

Operating like a stateless organization, Telegram has long behaved as if it were above the law — though that may be changing. Pavel Durov, the Russian-born founder of the platform, was arrested and charged in France last month for failure to cooperate with law enforcement and complicity in crimes committed on the service, including the distribution of child sexual abuse material, drug trafficking and fraud.

In many democratic countries, patience with the app is wearing thin. The European Union is exploring new oversight of Telegram under the Digital Services Act, a law that forces large online platforms to police their services more aggressively, two people familiar with the plans said.

Telegram’s tolerance for toxic activities begins with Mr. Durov, 39, who runs the company with a devout belief that governments should not interfere in what people say or do online. This year, he wrote on his Telegram channel:
Telegram has benefited people in authoritarian countries who need ways to freely communicate, but the app has also contributed to real-world harm. Hateful discourse that spread on the platform has played a role in recent riots in Britain and arson at migrant housing centers in Ireland.

A disparate collective on Telegram known as Terrorgram, where neo-fascists share messages and videos encouraging violence, has been linked to attacks, including a shooting in 2022 at an L.G.B.T.Q. bar in Slovakia.

Even as Telegram approaches one billion users, it has prided itself on behaving differently from its tech peers. The company, based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates, operates like a start-up, with about 60 full-time employees. It has hired just a few hundred contractors to work as moderators, and it steadfastly ignores most requests for assistance from law enforcement agencies.

An email inbox used for inquiries from government agencies is rarely checked, former employees said. When a House committee investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on Capitol Hill sought information from 15 internet platforms, only Telegram did not respond.

In contrast, Instagram, YouTube and TikTok have entire divisions dedicated to complying with law enforcement requests and thousands of moderators scouring their services for illicit and harmful material.

Only Apple and Google, which can expel Telegram from their app stores, have successfully pushed the platform to take down and restrict the spread of harmful material, said analysts, government officials and tech executives. Governments have sometimes turned to the tech giants for help getting Telegram to act.

Hours after The Times sent Telegram a detailed list of questions, Mr. Durov on Thursday posted his first comments to his 12 million-plus followers since his arrest. He said claims that Telegram was “some sort of anarchic paradise are absolutely untrue” and that the company removed “millions of harmful posts and channels everyday.”

He attributed the volume of illicit and harmful content to Telegram’s “growing pains,” adding that “that’s why I made it my personal goal to ensure that we significantly improve things in this regard.”

In a statement to The Times, Telegram said that “99.999 percent of our users” were lawful and that while there was “plenty of work to do,” the platform was making improvements to its features and moderation.

A Marketplace for Crime
In December 2022, Hayden Espinosa began serving a 33-month sentence in federal prison in Louisiana for buying and selling illegal firearms and weapon parts he made with 3-D printers. That did not stop his business.

Using cellphones that had been smuggled into prison, Mr. Espinosa continued his illicit trade on a Telegram channel, which was named after 3-D printing and the Second Amendment right to bear arms, according to an indictment in June by the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg Jr.

One post in the channel’s “shop” offered a menu of prices for weapon parts, including ammunition clips and devices called auto sears, which empty a magazine with a single pull of the trigger. “DM for International Orders,” the post said.

Telegram combines the anonymity of the dark web with the ease-of-use of an online marketplace. It is easy to search and find channels selling guns, illicit narcotics, prescription drugs and fraudulent A.T.M. cards, called clone cards. Alongside photos and videos of available merchandise, dealers leave information on how to message them directly.

Often they act like salesmen, celebrating successful deliveries and touting discounted prices.

One reason Telegram has become a haven for such activity stems from its unique features, including “channels” and “supergroups,” which rivals like WhatsApp were slower to add.

Telegram began as a standard text messaging service similar to iMessage or WhatsApp, before it began evolving in 2014 by adding broadcasting features. These “channels” are now one of the platform’s best-known tools for sharing text, images, links and videos by news organizations, world leaders and government agencies.

Telegram then introduced “supergroups,” which harked back to an era of unruly AOL chat rooms. These groups attracted new users but also presented risks.

While WhatsApp kept group chat sizes in the hundreds and limited link sharing to blunt the spread of disinformation, Telegram did the opposite and steadily lifted the cap on group sizes. By 2019, a group administrator could run city-size chat groups with as many as 200,000 users.

Initially, this attracted new users interested in cryptocurrencies. In the crypto world, Telegram became a critical tool for talking about new digital coins and cultivating communities dedicated to, and often heavily invested in, particular currencies.

These tools also attracted a less savory group of users, including extremists, disinformation peddlers and sellers of illicit goods.

“I don’t want to paint with a broad brush,” said Mr. Bragg, the Manhattan district attorney, “but I think the combination of a number of things — the encryption, the ability to reach large numbers of people, the ability to set up subgroups and their posture toward law enforcement — creates an environment in which it’s not surprising that criminal activity is occurring.”

Nor has the platform dedicated significant resources to weed this activity out. As Telegram ballooned, its staff barely grew. Today, it has contractors and artificial intelligence tools to proactively monitor the public parts of Telegram, which does not include many groups or individual chats.

The company said it had a moderation process, which includes constantly reviewing content, fielding user complaints and publishing daily reports on child sexual abuse materials.

Even so, The Times found at least 50 channels openly selling contraband, including guns, drugs and fraudulent debit cards. One channel that evoked the Wild West with its name called successful deliveries “touchdowns,” a popular slang in such groups.

Telegram’s features — coupled with its refusal to cooperate with the police — have stymied criminal investigations, increasingly frustrating the authorities. The company can gain access to messages unless users select a secret chat option with end-to-end encryption, according to two former employees. On at least two occasions, the company has retrieved the messages of former employees, one person said.

But the company, which denied that employees had access to user data, has refused to share information with governments. France charged Mr. Durov with complicity in trafficking child sexual imagery, among other crimes, because of what the chief prosecutor called “an almost total lack of response” to requests for assistance.

Svenja Meininghaus, a state prosecutor focused on illegal hate speech in Germany, said other major social media platforms had developed practices for working with law enforcement. But “we don’t get any cooperation from Telegram at all,” she said, adding, “I can’t recall one case.”

Telegram said it was “now working hard to make sure we can process legitimate requests from democratic countries while still defending the rights of our users elsewhere.”

Mr. Espinosa’s gun market on Telegram might never have been uncovered except that one of its members was Payton Gendron, who massacred 10 people at a supermarket in Buffalo in 2022.

Investigators scouring his life online for motives for the shooting discovered the channel, which also featured racist and extremist views he had shared.

Having stumbled across the channel’s illicit trade in components of untraceable “ghost guns,” an undercover police officer in New York City reached out to Mr. Espinosa, 24, and bought a handgun, an assault rifle and two silencers from him in August 2023, according to the indictment. A lawyer for Mr. Espinosa with the Legal Aid Society could not be reached for comment.

Live on Telegram, a Terrorist Attack
When Hamas attacked Israel on the morning of Oct. 7, it announced the assault on Telegram.

Within two and a half hours of the first incursions, Hamas began posting grisly videos of the carnage. In the first 72 hours of the war, channels affiliated with the group posted nearly 700 times, receiving over 54 million views, according to The Times’s analysis.

Telegram became so useful to Hamas that the group turned to the platform more than it did an official Hamas app, the Al-Qassam Brigades Android app, which it had built to communicate with supporters. Content posted to both platforms consistently saw 100 times more reach on Telegram, The Times found.

Hamas capitalized on other Telegram features. After Oct. 7, members of its groups and other supporters easily downloaded videos of the violence and posted them to other platforms with little interference. The effect was a surge of grisly clips across the internet.

After Apple and Google demanded some moderation, Telegram relented — but only a little. In late October, the company restricted access to some Hamas-related content on copies of its app distributed through the official Apple and Google app stores. It also sent some users instructions on how to download another version of the app that did not have the content removed.

“If you wish to continue reading those channels, you can do so using the direct version of Telegram for Android which has the minimum possible restrictions,” said a message sent from an official Telegram account that was reviewed by The Times. It included a link to the unfiltered version of the app.

In contrast, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube blocked accounts linked to Hamas, as well as posts that were overtly sympathetic to its cause.

In an Oct. 13 post, Mr. Durov defended the availability of Hamas-related content. In one instance, he noted, Hamas had used Telegram to alert Israelis of a coming attack.

This month, Hamas used Telegram to release videos of hostages in Gaza who were later killed. One of the videos, which was viewed more than 100,000 times, included English, Arabic and Hebrew subtitles to maximize its audience.

Basem Naim, a Hamas spokesman, declined to comment. After being contacted by The Times, Telegram blocked access to several Hamas channels on Friday.

White Nationalists Unite
Mr. Durov, who was born in 1984 in the Soviet Union, became known as Russia’s Mark Zuckerberg after he founded VKontakte, a social network similar to Facebook, in 2006.

As VKontakte took off, Mr. Durov said the Kremlin pressured him to remove content and report users, wary of the network’s power to organize anti-government sentiment. That inspired him to start Telegram as a method of keeping communications safe from the Kremlin’s prying eyes. The app was released in 2013.

In 2014, Mr. Durov left Russia. Since then he has lived itinerantly, working from Berlin, San Francisco, London and elsewhere before landing in Dubai. Worth an estimated $9 billion, he has become a sort of free speech folk hero.

So on Aug. 24, as news of Mr. Durov’s arrest in France ricocheted around the world, the events were debated by a group nearly 5,000 miles away in Montana.

They were members of a local Telegram channel for White Lives Matter, a disparate white nationalist group that adopted the name from the movement formed in 2013 to protest police killings of Black people.

The white nationalist group is inextricably linked to Telegram for communication, recruitment and coordination. On the platform, there are nearly 50 chapters of the movement around the world, in places like Florida, Alabama, New York, Italy, Russia, Germany and the Czech Republic. They share anti-immigration views and commentary and organize protests or other actions, like unfurling racist banners in public spaces, The Times found.

“Join our team, and lets make something good happen for a change!” read a recent post in the Montana channel.

The chapters, which typically have a few hundred members, have been linked to violence. One Ohio member firebombed a church that hosted a drag event in Alliance, Ohio, last year, according to court documents.

The movement takes advantage of Telegram’s features. Known as a hub and spoke model, an international channel with more than 21,000 members amplifies broader messages while smaller local groups focus on organizing and recruiting.

Tinier private channels are where activities, sometimes illegal, are planned, experts in extremist movements said. The result was a feedback loop where local actions, such as a vandalism campaign, were amplified globally, which in turn inspired more action elsewhere.

Other far-right nationalist groups have also sprouted on Telegram. In a channel for the American far-right extremist group Proud Boys, acts of political intimidation were planned, including demonstrations outside election centers in 2022 and a campaign this year to steal and damage rainbow L.G.B.T.Q. flags during Pride Month. In Ireland, anti-immigration activists use Telegram to share the locations of immigration centers, some of which were later targeted by arsonists.

Some extremist groups have grown more cautious as scrutiny of Telegram has intensified. Messages pinned to local channels instruct new members on how to stay anonymous.

“Remember: This is a public channel, and not everyone who views it is friendly to people who support WLM,” read a post on one channel. “Write and converse accordingly.”

A new member to one chat was instructed by a group administrator to “please setup a non personal profile picture.” To be invited into more private chats, new recruits must first interact with an automated bot, which connects them with a local chapter after vetting their intentions and background.

“We are here simply because we like what Telegram stands for, uncensored freedom of speech,” an administrator of the channel wrote in response to questions. “Condemning ‘It’s okay to be white’ as hate speech is why we are here and will continue to speak and fight against the anti-white narrative.”

Ahead of the U.S. presidential election in November, security researchers are monitoring Telegram for threats of violence. In many public channels, activists are already making claims of voter fraud, with calls to be prepared to act, said Arie Perliger, a criminology professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, whose research is partly funded by the National Institute of Justice, a research agency of the Department of Justice.

If former President Donald J. Trump loses in November, Mr. Perliger said, “we need to understand Telegram will probably be a substantial infrastructure for extremists who want to do something about it.”

Can Telegram Be Brought to Heel?
Several times a year, employees at Apple’s Silicon Valley headquarters send notes to Telegram demanding it remove material that has been flagged as illegal or otherwise harmful.

Apple explains that under its guidelines, the app must have policies to filter out objectionable content and block abusive users, said three people with knowledge of the exchanges who declined to be identified discussing private talks.

Telegram often voices its objections, they said, but it almost always bends to Apple’s demands. Where governments have failed to get the app to act — or even respond — Apple and Google have had some success by using the threat of kicking the service out of their app stores.

With Telegram, the companies are trying to balance the app’s potential harms against its beneficial role as a private communications tool and a critical piece of digital infrastructure in countries like Ukraine and Russia. They must also consider differing rules about what is classified as illegal speech around the world.

In practice, the most effective way to get Telegram to act is a sort of whisper-down-the-lane approach in which users, advocacy groups, news coverage and sometimes governments draw Apple’s and Google’s attention to the app’s harmful and illegal content. The tech giants in turn notify Telegram to respond.

In addition to Apple’s regular messages to address such content, Google sends requests to Telegram almost weekly, four people with knowledge of the interactions said. Telegram responds quickly when alerted to clearly illegal material like child sexual abuse content, they said, but it is more resistant to demands to address speech-related content that is less clearly unlawful.

Telegram said it abided by Apple’s and Google’s moderation rules. Google and Apple declined to comment on Telegram and said their rules were detailed in developer guidelines.

Mr. Durov has grown increasingly antagonistic toward the tech giants. He has called Apple a “trillion-dollar monopoly” and chided the company in April for blocking Telegram on its China app store, writing that “prioritizing profits over freedom for users is not a good long-term strategy.”

“The largest pressure toward Telegram is not coming from governments, it’s coming from Apple and Google,” Mr. Durov said in an interview this year with Tucker Carlson.

TechCrunch : Meta Llama: Everything you need to know about the open generative A

Meta Llama: Everything you need to know about the open generative AI model

Like every big tech company these days, Meta has its own flagship generative AI model, called Llama. Llama is somewhat unique among major models in that it’s “open,” meaning developers can download and use it however they please (with certain limitations). That’s in contrast to models like Anthropic’s Claude, OpenAI’s GPT-4o (which powers ChatGPT) and Google’s Gemini, which can only be accessed via APIs.

In the interest of giving developers choice, however, Meta has also partnered with vendors including AWS, Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure to make cloud-hosted versions of Llama available. In addition, the company has released tools designed to make it easier to fine-tune and customize the model.

Here’s everything you need to know about Llama, from its capabilities and editions to where you can use it. We’ll keep this post updated as Meta releases upgrades and introduces new dev tools to support the model’s use.

What is Llama?
Llama is a family of models — not just one:

  • Llama 8B
  • Llama 70B
  • Llama 405B
The latest versions are Llama 3.1 8B, Llama 3.1 70B and Llama 3.1 405B, which was released in July 2024. They’re trained on web pages in a variety of languages, public code and files on the web, as well as synthetic data (i.e. data generated by other AI models).

Llama 3.1 8B and Llama 3.1 70B are small, compact models meant to run on devices ranging from laptops to servers. Llama 3.1 405B, on the other hand, is a large-scale model requiring (absent some modifications) data center hardware. Llama 3.1 8B and Llama 3.1 70B are less capable than Llama 3.1 405B, but faster. They’re “distilled” versions of 405B, in point of fact, optimized for low storage overhead and latency.

All the Llama models have 128,000-token context windows. (In data science, tokens are subdivided bits of raw data, like the syllables “fan,” “tas” and “tic” in the word “fantastic.”) A model’s context, or context window, refers to input data (e.g. text) that the model considers before generating output (e.g. additional text). Long context can prevent models from “forgetting” the content of recent docs and data, and from veering off topic and extrapolating wrongly.

Those 128,000 tokens translate to around 100,000 words or 300 pages, which for reference is around the length of “Wuthering Heights,” “Gulliver’s Travels” and “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban.”

What can Llama do?
Like other generative AI models, Llama can perform a range of different assistive tasks, like coding and answering basic math questions, as well as summarizing documents in eight languages (English, German, French, Italian, Portuguese, Hindi, Spanish and Thai). Most text-based workloads — think analyzing files like PDFs and spreadsheets — are within its purview; none of the Llama models can process or generate images, although that may change in the near future.

All the latest Llama models can be configured to leverage third-party apps, tools and APIs to complete tasks. They’re trained out of the box to use Brave Search to answer questions about recent events, the Wolfram Alpha API for math- and science-related queries and a Python interpreter for validating code. In addition, Meta says the Llama 3.1 models can use certain tools they haven’t seen before (but whether they can reliably use those tools is another matter).

Where can I use Llama?
If you’re looking to simply chat with Llama, it’s powering the Meta AI chatbot experience on Facebook Messenger, WhatsApp, Instagram, Oculus and Meta.ai.

Developers building with Llama can download, use or fine-tune the model across most of the popular cloud platforms. Meta claims it has over 25 partners hosting Llama, including Nvidia, Databricks, Groq, Dell and Snowflake.

Some of these partners have built additional tools and services on top of Llama, including tools that let the models reference proprietary data and enable them to run at lower latencies.

Meta suggests using its smaller models, Llama 8B and Llama 70B, for general-purpose applications like powering chatbots and generating code. Llama 405B, the company says, is better reserved for model distillation — the process of transferring knowledge from a large model to a smaller, more efficient model — and generating synthetic data to train (or fine-tune) alternative models.

Importantly, the Llama license constrains how developers can deploy the model: App developers with more than 700 million monthly users must request a special license from Meta that the company will grant on its discretion.

What tools does Meta offer for Llama?
Alongside Llama, Meta provides tools intended to make the model “safer” to use:

  • Llama Guard, a moderation framework
  • Prompt Guard, a tool to protect against prompt injection attacks
  • CyberSecEval, a cybersecurity risk assessment suite
Llama Guard tries to detect potentially problematic content either fed into — or generated — by a Llama model, including content relating to criminal activity, child exploitation, copyright violations, hate, self-harm and sexual abuse. Developers can customize the categories of blocked content, and apply the blocks to all the languages Llama supports out of the box.

Like Llama Guard, Prompt Guard can block text intended for Llama, but only text meant to “attack” the model and get it to behave in undesirable ways. Meta claims that Llama Guard can defend against explicitly malicious prompts (i.e. jailbreaks that attempt to get around Llama’s built-in safety filters) in addition to prompts that contain “injected inputs.”

As for CyberSecEval, it’s less a tool than a collection of benchmarks to measure model security. CyberSecEval can assess the risk a Llama model poses (at least according to Meta’s criteria) to app developers and end users in areas like “automated social engineering” and “scaling offensive cyber operations.”

Llama’s limitations
Llama comes with certain risks and limitations, like all generative AI models.

For instance, it’s unclear whether Meta trained Llama on copyrighted content. If it did, users might be liable for infringement if they end up unwittingly using a copyrighted snippet that the model regurgitated.

Meta at one point used copyrighted e-books for AI training despite its own lawyers’ warnings, according to recent reporting by Reuters. The company controversially trains its AI on Instagram and Facebook posts, photos and captions, and makes it difficult for users to opt out. What’s more, Meta, along with OpenAI, is the subject of an ongoing lawsuit brought by authors, including comedian Sarah Silverman, over the companies’ alleged unauthorized use of copyrighted data for model training.

Programming is another area where it’s wise to tread lightly when using Llama. That’s because Llama might — like its generative AI counterparts — produce buggy or insecure code.

As always, it’s best to have a human expert review any AI-generated code before incorporating it into a service or software.

TechCrunch : La French Tech gears up to go in a new direction

La French Tech gears up to go in a new direction

After weeks in political limbo, France now has a new prime minister, former EU’s Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier. But parliament remains bitterly divided, generating uncertainty for many economic sectors — including the country’s dynamic startup ecosystem, which had so far benefited from public support.

La French Tech isn’t just a term referring to France’s 25,000 startups; it is also an initiative supported by a public administration, the French Tech Mission, whose director, Clara Chappaz, is departing this month as her three-year contract ends, she told Les Échos. The timing is coincidental, but also noteworthy. Her replacement, she told TechCrunch in late August, should hopefully be someone who is “not afraid of change” and sees it as an opportunity.

The role is undoubtedly unique. It’s attached to the Ministry of the Economy and Finance, but with a lean team working out of Station F and with a big mission: to support the structuring and growth of the French startup ecosystem of startups, in France and abroad. It requires someone who is equally able to talk to public officials, politicians, big companies and journalists.

It is now too late to apply, but seeing how it has been described as a “dream job,” there should be enough candidates on the ranks; Chappaz, who won’t be part of the jury, said when we talked in August that she was taking several calls a day from prospective candidates. She likely told them pretty much the same as she told TechCrunch and her LinkedIn followers: That France is “incredibly lucky” to have its French Tech Mission and that her experience at its helm was “exceptional.”

But what happened in the past isn’t indicative of the future, and whoever succeeds Chappaz will operate in a scenario that’s very different from when she took charge in 2021. That’s because La French Tech itself has changed during those years, pushing new priorities for the French Tech Mission.

Chappaz experienced her fair share of change over the last three years, too, and not only because there were three different secretaries of state for digital affairs over that same period; that’s common in a lot of public administrations. The main change had to do with tech itself, and with the macro context: 2024 is quite different from 2021.

Just like elsewhere, French startups went through the ebbs and flows of the pandemic and the fundraising hype that ensued, only to come back to earth a few months later. Geopolitical unrest followed, and alongside came the realization that countries needed industrial champions to rely on.

For the French Tech Mission, which celebrated its 10th anniversary in 2023, this meant aligning with the strategic France 2030 agenda. There came French Tech 2030, with less focus on unicorns, and more on deep tech spinouts and economic impact. Not that it was responsible for the former: President Emmanuel Macron was the one who set out “25 French unicorns” as a goal to reach by 2025. (After reaching that milestone in 2022, he went on to call for 100 unicorns by 2030.)

That France now has scaleups like BlaBlaCar and Doctolib is no small feat, and telling the world certainly did favors to its image. But 10 years after the “unicorn” moniker was coined, global tech has moved on. It was time for France to acknowledge that its startups have changed, too, with the rise of companies like Mistral AI and Pasqal (and the fall of others, like Luko.)

The France Digitale association, which represents startups and investors from the French digital ecosystem, has been well placed to witness this evolution among its members since its creation in 2012. “There are [now] startups in all sectors, in manufacturing, in healthcare, which are also sectors that I think are strategic priorities for the competitiveness of France and for the sovereignty of France and Europe,” its CEO Maya Noël told TechCrunch.

In line with this evolution, Nöel said it might be interesting for Chappaz’s replacement to come from one of these strategic sectors, but that’s no jab at her background (Chappaz joined from Vestiaire Collective, a second-hand fashion marketplace) or at her predecessors. From our conversation with Noël, it transpired that the two structures are “fairly aligned” and have been in “constant dialogue.”

Several initiatives adopted under Chappaz’s leadership reflect what the sector has been lobbying for. One example is “Je Choisis La French Tech,” an initiative that saw 300 companies and 80 institutional players commit to helping double the number of public contracts and purchases from startups. “We have been asking for this for 10 years,” Noël said.

If anything, France Digitale wished things could go faster, for instance on the hot topic of exits (or dearth thereof). Someone with first-hand knowledge of scaleups and international expansion could add value at its helm, but a new director with a public service background might be able to pull strings on the administration side if La French Tech were to lack governmental support, Noël said.

La French Tech Mission has arguments that could play well with different sides of the political support: that startups are directly and indirectly responsible for 1.1 million jobs, and for helping reindustrialize France. Many people also committed to the Parity Pact promoted by Chappaz and her team to foster gender equality in the tech industry. Her successor will have to play these cards well, and we wish them “bonne chance.” That also goes for Chappaz, too, who is expecting her second child and says she hasn’t decided yet what she will do next, but that it’ll have to do with tech innovation.

TechCrunch : Apple Event 2024: iPhone 16, Apple Intelligence and all the other e

Apple Event 2024: iPhone 16, Apple Intelligence and all the other expected ‘Glowtime’ reveals
Apple’s big iPhone 16 lineup reveal will also be packed with an AI showcase and potential AirPods, Apple Watch news
Update 9/8: As ever, additional rumors have popped up in the days leading up to the event. Among the more interesting of recent vintage (all Apple Watch related): The Apple Watch Series 10’s blood pressure monitoring is not coming to the Watch Ultra 2, limited Apple Intelligence features for the Watch, though it will be baked into a future fitness coach-style feature. Both models are reportedly getting that sleep apnea feature, though it likely won’t be available at launch.

Sometimes a headline is enough. Apple will reveal the iPhone 16 at its September 9 “It’s Glowtime” event; this much we can tell you for certain. But Apple doesn’t invite us to fly across the country for a single product — not to mention booking a hotel room on the 49ers opening day. Football aside, the timing of the annual event is important, as it’s one last major opportunity to announce a bunch of hardware ahead of the holidays.

The livestream kicks off on Monday at 10 a.m. PT. The invites dropped last week with the “Glowtime” tag line and a color scheme to match. Apple loves to sprinkle small hints into these graphics, and this one appears more on the nose than most.

Apple Intelligence and Siri
Back at WWDC in June, Apple finally revealed its approach to generative AI. The offering is an extremely Apple approach, right down to the name — Apple Intelligence — which happily hijacks the familiar AI initialism. The “small model” method is emblematic of the company in the sense that it’s trained on limited data relevant to improving the user experience.
That’s a marked difference between it and much larger “black box” models like OpenAI’s and Google’s Gemini. The efficacy of the approach remains to be seen, as we wait for Apple Intelligence’s wider release. It will almost certainly be a work in progress, as — at the very least — all of generative AI is, at the end of the day.

The answer for how this all ties into “Glowtime” can be found in Siri. In June, Apple announced a much-needed glow up for the O.G. smart assistant. Along with generative AI models and better app integration, the company revealed an updated interface. Gone is the familiar colorful Siri circle, swapped out for a glowing border that surrounds the display when Siri is listening/processing.
Out of every iPhone ever launched, two models will be able to run Apple Intelligence: the iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max. According to the company, that’s due to limitations with older chips. Given that non-Pro iPhone 15 models are effectively running the iPhone 14 Pro’s chipset, Apple can credibly make the argument that only one of its chips so far was built with Apple Intelligence in mind. You can decide for yourself whether you think the exclusion of the iPhone 15 is entirely a hardware matter.

With all of this in mind, next week’s event is the perfect chance to announce that Apple Intelligence will be available across the new iPhone line.

iPhone 16, 16 Pro and 16 Pro Max
Image Credits: Stanislav Kogiku / SOPA Images / LightRocket / Getty Images

We’re heading toward the promise of true edge-to-edge displays millimeter by millimeter. According to one recent leak, the iPhone 16 Pro Max may get an even larger display, courtesy of smaller bezels, moving from 1.5mm to 1.4mm. So, what’s a few fractions of a millimeter between friends? A lot when you’re talking about a total size of under 2mm, turns out.


That will reportedly bump the Pro Max’s screen size from 6.69 to 6.86 inches, without increasing the device’s overall footprint by some unwieldy amount. The iPhone 15 Pro Max is already a big phone. The iPhone 16 Pro, meanwhile, is said to be making the leap from 6.12 to 6.27 inches.
Camera improvements are a no-brainer for annual updates. The most interesting of the bunch is a new glass molded lens that is thinner and lighter, while dramatically increasing optical zoom capabilities. Optical zoom capabilities are worth paying attention to, as they don’t suffer from the same sort of image degradation issues as their digital counterpart.

Leaked dummy models from early in the year give us a rough idea of each model’s design. Most notable on the 16 and 16 Plus are the shift from a diagonal to vertical camera setup. The models, which are designed for third parties to get a jumpstart on accessories, feature the addition of a new “Capture” button across the line. The new feature is designed to provide quick access to different camera capabilities.

The most welcome change, however, may be bigger batteries. Screen and camera improvements are all well and good, but battery life remains a struggle. This particular report could use more substantiating, so take that with an even larger grain of salt than usual. Additional reports, meanwhile, have pointed to Apple making battery replacements more accessible for users. Given that the company has begun offering home repair options as more governments and localities pass right to repair laws, this one certainly tracks.

The Pro models are also expected to gain Wi-Fi 7, which would be a big boon for the latest wireless standard.

Apple Watch Series 10/Ultra 3
Image Credits: Apple

As hard as it is to believe, the Apple Watch turns 10 this year. They grow up so quickly. Apple made a big splash with the iPhone X, so it follows that it’d have something similar planned for the Apple Watch Series 10 (Series X?). Earlier rumors pointing to a significant redesign have cooled in recent months, making way for a familiar design with a larger display, bumping up to 45mm and 49mm models. The new watch should also be slimmer than its predecessor — something especially important when discussing a watch.

Like the iPhone 16, the Apple Watch Series 10 and Ultra 3 should get a new processor — the S10, one imagines. That could mean that additional AI functionality isn’t far out. A glucose monitor is the most exciting rumored addition. Sleep apnea detection is also rumored for the device, but as Bloomberg notes, Apple’s legal woes with Masimo may well trip up that feature.
A long-awaited update to the budget Apple Watch SE with a plastic body could also appear next week.

AirPods 4
Image Credits: Apple
Stay with me on this one. Apple is reportedly announcing two versions of the AirPods 4 next week. The cheaper model will replace the still-available AirPods 2, and the more premium version will replace the AirPods 3. Still with me? The more premium model is set to blur the line between it and the AirPods Pro, by adding Active Noise Cancelation and Find My features. All of the models should also finally ditch Lightning for USB-C, as the company transitions its products to comply with EU mandates.

So, how will Apple maintain a clear line between the mid-tier and Pro pods? We’ll have to wait on the answer to that one, as we’re not expecting new AirPods Pro next week. We may, however, finally get the over-ear AirPods Max 2, four years after the original.

New Macs
Image Credits: Brian Heater

This one is a big maybe. Recent reporting suggests that Apple will hold off on announcing M4 macs until November. Supply chain issues have been dictating the Mac’s release calendar ever since the pandemic. A big, USB-A-less version of the Mac Mini is said to be arriving before end of year, along with a new iMac and MacBook Pro.
Glow with the flow
Image Credits: Apple
Here’s what we can say for sure: Apple’s Glowtime event is scheduled for Monday, September 9 at 10 a.m. PT. As always, we’ll be there, bringing it to you live.

Le Figaro : Jacques de Larosière: «On peut trouver 200 milliards d’économies sur

Jacques de Larosière: «On peut trouver 200 milliards d’économies sur dix ans»

ENTRETIEN - Selon l’ex-gouverneur de la Banque de France, il est possible de réduire la dette sans toucher aux dépenses sociales. Il appelle à un sursaut pour en finir avec les politiques du déni et de la facilité monétaire et budgétaire.

Alors que le nouveau gouvernement va devoir boucler le budget 2025 de l’État dans les deux semaines qui viennent, le sage de la finance Jacques de Larosière, 94 ans, lance une nouvelle fois un cri d’alarme sur les finances calamiteuses de la France. Après En finir avec le règne de l’illusion financière, l’ex-directeur général du Fonds monétaire international, membre de l’Académie des sciences morales et politiques, publie Le déclin français est-il réversible? Renverser la table et sortir de la servitude, aux Éditions Odile Jacob. De façon très pédagogique, l’auteur décrypte le mythe de l’argent facile et propose surtout des pistes concrètes pour réduire l’endettement public élevé afin de retrouver des marges de manœuvre pour diriger le pays.

LE FIGARO. - Quels sont les signes du déclin français?

Jacques de LAROSIÈRE. - J’en citerai quatre. Le premier est notre perte de compétitivité économique. En près de trente ans, notre capacité industrielle a fondu d’à peu près 30 % tandis que celle de nos voisins allemands se maintenait. La raison? Le choix de la France pour une politique de la stimulation continue de la demande intérieure et non pas de l’investissement productif. Il en est résulté que nous fabriquons surtout des produits bas de gamme qui n’ont pu résister, lors de l’ouverture des frontières, à la concurrence des pays à faibles coûts de main-d’œuvre. Notre industrie française s’est délocalisée massivement à l’étranger. Et ceci, de façon beaucoup plus prononcée qu’en Allemagne, où les syndicats ont souvent accepté de réduire leurs salaires pour renforcer les entreprises en difficulté.

Le second symptôme est la permanence et l’importance depuis vingt ans du déficit de la balance commerciale, liées à la hausse de produits importés en raison du phénomène précédent.

Troisième indice, auquel j’accorde beaucoup d’importance, c’est l’éducation. Les statistiques de l’OCDE montrent le déclin, de manière extrêmement dangereuse, de notre système éducatif depuis une vingtaine d’années. Par rapport à la France, l’Allemagne a des professeurs mieux rémunérés et plus nombreux.

Enfin, quatrième manifestation: l’état déplorable de nos finances publiques. La dette publique française a plus que doublé depuis vingt ans, passant de 50 % de la production nationale (PIB) à 112 % aujourd’hui. Si elle est voisine de celle de l’Italie ou de la Belgique, elle est près du double de celle de l’Allemagne (près de 60 %). N’oublions pas que le budget, c’est d’une certaine manière la synthèse stratégique d’une nation.

Comment en est-on arrivé là?

La doxa pensait, dans une période encore récente de très bas taux d’intérêt liée à la politique de la Banque centrale européenne, qu’emprunter favoriserait la croissance. État, comme entreprises privées, s’en sont ainsi donné à cœur joie. Le problème est que l’on ne peut emprunter indéfiniment parce que le montant de la dette, par définition, s’accroît. Aujourd’hui, les taux d’intérêt sont plus hauts qu’au temps de l’argent facile. Entre le niveau élevé de l’endettement public, qui pourrait dépasser à l’avenir 120 %, et la hausse ces dernières années des taux d’intérêt, le coût de la charge de la dette est déjà supérieur au budget de la Défense nationale!

Cette politique a comme conséquence que l’on s’est détourné de l’investissement productif au profit de placements spéculatifs dans l’immobilier et en Bourse. La hausse des bilans de la nation est due davantage à l’augmentation des valorisations du capital qu’à la valeur réelle de l’économie. C’est ce que Keynes décrivait sous le vocable de la «trappe à liquidité»: étant donné que la rémunération de l’épargne est nulle, les ménages privilégient les placements à court terme aux investissements productifs et ceux plus risqués à long terme, comme les projets industriels.

Résultat: aujourd’hui, la France souffre d’une économie qui s’affaisse et de comptes publics à vau-l’eau.

Faut-il, comme certains, imputer cette situation à l’Europe, l’entrée de la France dans la zone euro en 2002 empêchant toute dévaluation?

Certainement pas. Ce sont justement les dévaluations répétées du passé du franc qui ont appauvri le pays et ont été le résultat de politique inflationniste. Il est temps que les dépenses de consommation, de fait subventionnées, laissent la place à l’augmentation de crédits pour la recherche, l’Éducation nationale…

L’Europe est toutefois fautive. Elle n’a pas été capable de faire respecter le plafond de la dette fixé à 60 % du PIB de la part des pays indisciplinés, comme la France et même l’Allemagne en 2003. Depuis plus de vingt ans, pas une seule fois la règle n’a été honorée par l’ensemble des États membres. Avec un commissaire par pays, la Commission européenne est devenue une collection de représentants nationaux, soucieux de promouvoir la politique de son pays, plus qu’un exécutif véritable.

Réduire les dépenses publiques est pour vous une mission possible…

Bien sûr. Je crois réaliste de trouver 200 milliards d’économies sur une période de dix ans. Et cela, j’insiste particulièrement face aux inepties entendues, sans toucher aux dépenses sociales et sans provoquer une déflagration politique. Ces économies passent par le maintien de l’allongement - modéré - de l’âge légal de départ à la retraite de 62 à 64 ans décidé en 2023, une révision de notre «millefeuille territorial», une réduction du coût exorbitant de l’apprentissage (12 milliards d’euros) via une participation des entreprises. Elles nécessitent, surtout, de s’attaquer au sureffectif de la fonction publique. Rappelons que la France compte 85 fonctionnaires pour 1000 habitants, contre 56 en Allemagne. Une réduction graduelle des effectifs, via le non-remplacement de tous les départs à la retraite, permettrait de réduire le surcoût estimé à 75 milliards d’euros.

Comment préconiser le maintien de la réforme de la retraite voulue par Emmanuel Macron quand les Français ne cessent de la contester?

Ce n’est pas parce que les gens sont prêts à descendre dans la rue que les recommandations des experts ne sont pas valables. N’oublions pas que l’espérance de vie croît et que la moyenne européenne de l’âge légal de départ à la retraite est de 67 ans. L’idée de mon livre est d’avoir une vue à long terme et d’insister sur la nécessité pour la France de restaurer sa capacité à produire et ce que j’appelle sa «compétitivité budgétaire européenne».

Oui, les Français ne sont pas friands de réformes, mais on leur a seriné pendant des années que l’argent était facile. Et, encore récemment, avec le fameux «quoi qu’il en coûte». Je demande juste aux hommes politiques de raisonner juste. Sans en appeler à un de Gaulle, qui avait compris qu’une nation ne tient pas debout sans un budget raisonnable, cela ne doit pas être difficile à trouver.

Quelles sont, selon vous, les mesures politiques de ces dernières années qui ont été les plus néfastes aux finances publiques?

J’évoquerai l’abaissement de l’âge de la retraite de 65 à 60 ans ainsi que la nationalisation - détricotée à grands frais par la suite - d’une grande partie de l’économie par François Mitterrand. Si je reconnais à Emmanuel Macron l’augmentation de l’âge de la retraite, comme l’avait déjà fait Nicolas Sarkozy avant lui, et la baisse de la pression fiscale sur le capital, je regrette la suppression de la taxe d’habitation, du coup financée par l’État, et, surtout, l’absence totale de mesures pour réduire les dépenses publiques.

À Michel Barnier, qui vient d’être nommé premier ministre, quelle première recommandation feriez-vous?

Puisque Michel Barnier juge important de réduire la dette publique, je recommanderais deux choses. Premièrement, d’arrêter de faire croire aux Français que tout peut se régler par de l’endettement supplémentaire. Deuxièmement, je me tournerais vers la Cour des comptes pour lui demander une analyse systématique de tous les budgets publics. Et de s’interroger, comme le font les pays scandinaves, si les budgets doivent être automatiquement reportés d’une année sur l’autre.

Il est très regrettable que les rapports, perspicaces, de la Cour des comptes ne soient pas suivis par les politiques. Si ses recommandations avaient été entendues, sans doute la France se porterait-elle mieux.