>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of May 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Autoliv GDRs Raised to Buy at Handelsbanken (+)
* Bouvet Raised to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 68 kroner
* Ceconomy Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 3.40 euros
* Leroy Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 60 kroner
* Osmosun Raised to Hold at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 6.60 euros (+)
* SNP Schneider-Neureither Raised to Buy at M.M. Warburg (+)
* Streamwide Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 29 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Bachem Cut to Hold at Octavian; PT 88 Swiss francs (+)
* Clas Ohlson Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken (+)
* Gentili Mosconi Cut to Hold at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 3.50 euros (+)
* Ionos Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 26.10 euros
* Lepermislibre Cut to Hold at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 1 euro (+)
* Webstep Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 26 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Genova Property Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 62 kronor
* Millicom Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30

>>> Call
* Julius Baer Buying EFG Would Raise Questions Over Strategy: RBC (+)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Neste (NEF TH) +1%
  • Securitas (S7MB TH) -1.1%
  • Wienerberger (WIB TH) -1.1%
  • UMG (0VD TH) -1.1%
  • Mowi (PND TH) -1.2%
  • Hochtief (HOT TH) -1.3%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) -1.4%
  • Raiffeisen (RAW TH) -1.8%
  • Bakkafrost (6BF TH) -2.4%
    • Bakkafrost Finds ISA Virus in Two Pens at Farming Site in Faroes
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) -6.1%
    • Alstom Rights Issue Subscription Price €13 a Share

>>> What to look at today - 27th of May 2024

Asian shares rose while the dollar fell on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year, with the US inflation data due this week likely indicating easing price pressure.  Stock markets in Hong Kong, China, Australia, South Korea and Japan advanced on Monday, while US equity futures were little changed. The Australian dollar, the euro and the yen strengthened somewhat versus the greenback, with Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida saying the end of the battle with deflation was in sight.  Global investors are hopeful that the Fed, along with the European Central Bank and its peers, will reduce interest rates this year. This, along with strong company earnings and signals from US officials that further rate hikes are unlikely, has boosted investor sentiment. A swath of inflation prints from Australia to Japan, the Eurozone and the US is due this week as traders finesse bets on the outlook for monetary policy. The Fed’s favorite measure of underlying inflation is due on Friday and is expected to show modest relief.  The ECB is widely expected to cut rates for the first time since concluding an unprecedented tightening campaign at its June meeting. But US officials are moving toward a pivot at a slower pace, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressing the need for more evidence that inflation is on a sustained path to their 2% goal before cutting the policy benchmark.  John Williams, Lisa Cook, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan are among the US central bankers due to speak.  Trading of cash Treasuries was closed. British and US markets are closed Monday for holidays. That means the “T+1” rule that has the potential to cause trouble for overseas investors will come into effect when traders come back from the long weekend — making US equities settle in one day rather than two.  Helping to lift sentiment, profits at China’s industrial companies rose in April, data showed on Monday, as a government push for equipment upgrade lifted demand and exports returned to growth. A global cyclical boom in technology products like chips as well as a push by the Chinese government to get firms to replace their old equipment likely supported the upturn.  Meanwhile, gold rose. This year has witnessed a rolling series of commodity price spikes thanks to supply constraints, surging demand and even some speculative activity. Oil moved higher after its biggest weekly loss in four, with the focus on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners, who are set to gather online on June 2 to discuss supply cuts. 

Nikkei +0.45% Hang Seng +0.71% CSI +0.48% Shanghai +0.59% Shenzen -0.23%

Eur$ 1.0849 CNH 7.2584 CNY 7.2451 JPY 156.79 GBP 1.2742 CHF 0.9143 RUB 89.6000 TRY 32.2273 WTI$ 77.99 +0.35% Gold 2,343 +0.40% BTC 68,699 +0.05% ETH 3,912 +1.38%

S&P -0.02% Nasdaq -0.05% EuroStoxx -0.06% FTSE -0.28% Dax -0.10% SMI -0.04%

Macro :
- Hedge Funds Turn Bearish on US Stocks Amid Hawkish Fed: Goldman
- Yields Will Stay Higher for Longer With Commodities: Macro View
- China’s Industry Threatens Entire Global Economy, France Warns
- Carry Trade Beating S&P 500 Has Legs on Higher-for-Longer Rates
- Global Emissions May Drop in 2024 as Turning Point Seen: BNEF

Keep an eye on :
- ALO FP : Alstom Rights Issue Subscription Price €13 a Share
- AAL LN : BlackRock pushed Anglo to extend talks with BHP
- AAPL US : Apple Bets on Giant User Base to Help It Win in AI: Power On
- BAKKA NO : Bakkafrost Finds ISA Virus in Two Pens at Farming Site in Faroes
- BBVA SM : BBVA Seeks Regulatory Approval for Banco Sabadell Takeover Bid
- CO FP : Casino, FRH Get Further Extension From Amsterdam Court
- EFGN SW : Julius Baer Is Said to Weigh Deal for Swiss Rival EFG
- Golden Goose IPO : Sneaker Maker Golden Goose Is Said to Kick Off Milan IPO Soon
- 0005380 KS : Hyundai Is Said to Add Kotak, Morgan Stanley as IPO Advisers
- BAER SW : Julius Baer Is Said to Weigh Deal for Swiss Rival EFG
- MSTR US : Super Micro, MicroStrategy Poised to Join Large-Cap Russell 1000
- NWL IM : Newlat Food Signs Deal to Buy Princes Ltd. for GBP700m
- NVDA US : US Lawmakers, Nvidia Boss Visit Taiwan After Drills (Correct)
- OKLO US : Altman-Backed Oklo Sees Data Centers Boosting Nuclear Demand
- PSN LN : Persimmon Considers £1 Billion Takeover Bid for Cala, Sky Says
- ROG SW : Roche Names Boris Zaïtra Head of Corporate Business Development
- SAN FP : Sanofi: Sarclisa Accepted for FDA Priority Review
- SBBB SS : SBB Forms Second JV With Castlelake in Latest Liquidity Move
- SEM PL : Semapa 1Q Net Income EU48.2M Vs. EU57M Y/y
- SMCI US : Super Micro, MicroStrategy Poised to Join Large-Cap Russell 1000
- TSLA US : Tesla Shareholders Should Reject Musk’s Pay, Glass Lewis Says
- TSLA US : Musk’s xAI Raises $6 Billion in Sequioa-Backed Series B Funding
- TIT IM : KKR’s €22 Billion Telecom Italia Deal Nears EU Nod
- UBSG SW : UBS Rules Out External Successor to CEO Sergio Ermotti: FT
- VNDA US : Vanda Pharmaceuticals Rejects Future Pak’s Takeover Proposal

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of May 2024

>>> Up
* Bouvet Raised to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 68 kroner
* Ceconomy Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 3.40 euros
* Leroy Raised to Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 60 kroner

>>> Down
* Ionos Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 26.10 euros
* Webstep Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 26 kroner

>>> Initiation
* Genova Property Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities; PT 62 kronor
* Millicom Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $30

>>> Call

WSJ : Evergrande EV Unit Says Liquidators in Talks With Potential Buyer

Evergrande EV Unit Says Liquidators in Talks With Potential Buyer
The liquidators plan to sell a 29% stake in China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, with the buyer having the option to buy an additional 29.5% stake

Liquidators of the beleaguered China Evergrande EGRNF -63.64%decrease; red down pointing triangle Group are in talks with a potential buyer to sell a significant stake in the property giant’s new energy vehicle unit.

The liquidators plan to initially sell a 29% stake in China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle, with the potential buyer having the option to buy an additional 29.5% stake, the EV maker said Sunday.

As per the terms of a nonbinding share transfer agreement, the buyer will provide a line of credit to help develop the electric vehicle business, the EV maker said.

Evergrande Auto didn’t identify the potential buyer.

Earlier this year, a Hong Kong court ordered the embattled property giant’s liquidation after it failed to reach an agreement with its creditors. The court’s ruling gave creditors the power to liquidate China Evergrande Group’s businesses.

The property giant, which has around $300 billion in liabilities, stopped paying its debts over two years ago and has been negotiating a restructuring with its creditors ever since.

“Currently, the group is in severe shortage of funds,” Evergrande Auto said, adding that its factory in Tianjin, which ceased production at the beginning of this year, has yet to resume production.

Evergrande Auto, which once had ambitions of surpassing Tesla and becoming the world’s top EV maker, boasted a market capitalization of more than $80 billion at its peak in April 2021.

Its Hong Kong-listed shares have since plummeted, resulting in a market value of $527 million before the shares were halted on May 17 pending an announcement. Trading of the company’s shares will resume on May 27.

WSJ : After the OceanGate Implosion, the Ultra Wealthy Still Can’t Resist the De

After the OceanGate Implosion, the Ultra Wealthy Still Can’t Resist the Deep Sea
Makers of luxury submarines braced for collapse after an expedition to the Titanic wreckage ended in disaster. But some deep-pocketed clients are still calling.

THE OCEAN FLOOR off the coast of Sebastian, Florida, is littered with untold fortunes. For three centuries now, the sea has turned the gold and silver coins of the doomed Spanish treasure fleet over and over among strands of flowing seaweed and beneath the claws of scuttling crabs.

Twenty miles inland, plunked on an unassuming industrial lot amid a swampy expanse, lie vessels capable of surfacing that sunken bounty. Triton Submarines, founded in 2008, is one of the leading makers of personal submersibles, serving a deep-pocketed clientele with aspirations of exploring the undersea realm.

Patrick Lahey, the company’s co-founder and CEO, is one of the world’s most experienced submersible operators. He has piloted a sub to the deepest point in the ocean, more than 35,000 feet below the water’s surface in the West Pacific. He speaks about his profession with passion, sometimes peppering his sentences with profanity. About a year ago, it seemed as though his work could all come screeching to a halt.

On June 18, 2023, the Titan, a submersible built by Seattle-based OceanGate, imploded during a trip to the Titanic, killing all five passengers onboard. The tragedy turned the world of personal submersibles from a luxury niche into a national fixation. For those in this tight-knit industry, the losses were personal. Lahey was particularly fond of Paul-Henri Nargeolet, a Titan passenger and deep-sea explorer whom he knew as P.H. and considered a dear friend.

The grief was enough to be paralyzing. But the industry also found itself deep in crisis mode. People who had never been inside a submersible were, understandably, swearing the vessels off for good. In a culture that attracts people who push the limits of adventure, the implosion gave even some sub enthusiasts pause.

“When I first heard about OceanGate, I texted my family and said, ‘You won’t be able to get ahold of me for a few weeks,’ ” says Craig Barnett, Triton’s director of sales.

OceanGate had been controversial in the sub industry for years. Men like Lahey, Nargeolet and Rob McCallum, founder of the ultra-high-end expedition company Eyos, had pleaded with OceanGate’s CEO Stockton Rush, who was part of the Titanic voyage, to exercise caution with Titan. In 2018, McCallum wrote to Rush in an email reported by the BBC: “You are wanting to use a prototype un-classed technology in a very hostile place. As much as I appreciate entrepreneurship and innovation, you are potentially putting an entire industry at risk.”

After the implosion, co-founder Guillermo Söhnlein told The Wall Street Journal that Rush’s goal was to build a safe sub while “breaking the rules” the industry had long followed. “Internally, we always called ourselves ‘SpaceX for the oceans,’ ” Söhnlein said.

Several authorities, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the National Transportation Safety Board and the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, opened investigations into OceanGate last summer following the disaster, in order to determine what went wrong and prevent it from happening again. Their safety reviews are ongoing.

In July, OceanGate announced on its website that it had suspended its operations. A representative for the company declined to comment.

Triton and its main competitor, Netherlands-based U-Boat Worx, suddenly had to differentiate their subs from the OceanGate vessel. Otherwise the fatal dive could grind the entire personal-sub industry to a halt.

The companies say they needed to drive home the key differences between “classed”—certified as safe and up to code—and “unclassed” subs. Both Triton and U-Boat Worx use third-party maritime-classification societies to ensure that their machines are classed, and Eyos uses only classed subs for its chartered voyages. Titan, on the other hand, was unclassed and built using experimental designs and materials such as carbon fiber that were prone to cracking after repeat dives.

After Titan’s passengers were declared dead, Lahey became a kind of industry spokesman. He was still flush with heartache when he was interviewed by the Times of London and ended up sounding too raw. In the interview he described Rush as “predatory.” Shortly thereafter, Triton’s New York City public relations firm, Shamin Abas, recommended that Lahey remain behind the scenes.

“Sometimes I wonder if I should have gotten more out in front of the story, because I was chomping at the bit,” Lahey says. “But I was very emotional. It still baffles me beyond words that P.H. was onboard.”

As Lahey and his peers see it, OceanGate’s problems weren’t broader submersible problems. They say classed subs are considered exceptionally safe modes of transportation thanks to rigorous testing of designs and materials.

“In that sense, OceanGate didn’t make the industry look bad,” says McCallum. “It made us look good.”

LAHEY RECALLS being laughed at when he began selling personal submersibles at boat shows in the early 2000s. Back then, hardly anyone had or coveted their own sub. Today, subs are common accessories for yachts exceeding 150 feet. On the floor at Triton’s headquarters lies Pagoo, a $50 million submersible formerly owned by Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen. A one of a kind, it is fitted with a $40,000 Dale Chihuly sink.

Ray Dalio, the multibillionaire financier and founder of the hedge-fund giant Bridgewater, was bitten hard by the sub bug some 12 years ago. A lifelong admirer of Jacques Cousteau, he owns a 285-foot research vessel named OceanXplorer that houses two subs, and which he likens to a modern-day Calypso, Cousteau’s legendary expedition vessel. “I’m not a yacht guy,” he says. “This is a sharp ship.” The list of scientific achievements made possible by Dalio’s boat and its subs is extensive, and includes capturing the first video from a manned submersible of a giant squid at depth.

With a deep appreciation for meditation, Dalio often speaks at a calm, almost zenned-out clip that he loses when discussing life below the waves. “For me it’s very exciting,” he says. “You can see all the species, the coral, the terrain, but it’s more than that. It’s otherworldly. The ocean has a huge effect on climate, a huge effect on our lives in so many ways: commerce, food, and so much of it is unexplored.”

It’s why, in 2022, Dalio teamed with another sub devotee, the filmmaker James Cameron, to buy an undisclosed stake in Triton. Dalio, who says he dives with both his children and grandchildren, seemed to express surprise when asked about the public’s newfound wariness of submarines. He says he would have gotten on a sub “five minutes later” after hearing about the implosion.

“In that situation they were experimental, they didn’t have certification, and they were not representative of what subs are,” Dalio says. “Anyone who is knowledgeable would have
no reservations.”

Still, the market has softened considerably in the wake of OceanGate. “We had contracts in place that we didn’t feel were in good taste to push too hard to get over the line, considering what happened,” says Barnett.

In the Netherlands, the horizon was even drearier. In 2022, U-Boat Worx had rolled out its Nemo model, a small vessel with a price tag of about $650,000. This was considered modest in an industry where most sub owners had a net worth in the nine-figure range—enough money to pay for the megayacht required to launch it. Nemo, meanwhile, could be launched from the beach using a $60,000 track vehicle. The plan was to put the model on a production schedule and bring personal submersibles to a wider market. These new owners would be hobbyists looking to putter around shallow reefs, not ultrawealthy die-hards spending tens of millions of dollars to go to the bottom of the Mariana Trench.

U-Boat Worx’s commercial director, Erik Hasselman, says that while no one canceled an order, the company quickly started to notice cooling demand. “There are many things that can affect a downcycle, particularly in such a small market, but I would attribute this directly to Titan,” he says. Hasselman says that the company has let go of 40 of its 85 employees since the implosion.

“This tragedy had a chilling effect on people’s interest in these vehicles,” says Triton’s Lahey. “It reignited old myths that only a crazy person would dive in one of these things.”

Barnett says Triton has delivered 18 subs in the past 15 years, and five in the past three. He also said that just before OceanGate, the builder had a pipeline of 15 different projects it was working on, each taking about one to two years to complete. One almost immediately vanished. “We had a $4 million sub we were building for a family’s yacht,” he says, “and the wife pulled the plug on it.”

But just a few days after the implosion, Lahey’s phone rang.

“We had a client, a wonderful man,” Lahey says. “He called me up and said, ‘You know, what we need to do is build a sub that can dive to [Titanic-level depths] repeatedly and safely and demonstrate to the world that you guys can do that, and that Titan was a contraption.’ ”

That man is Larry Connor, an Ohio real-estate investor who has been down to the Mariana Trench and all the way up to the International Space Station.

“I want to show people worldwide that while the ocean is extremely powerful, it can be wonderful and enjoyable and really kind of life-changing if you go about it the right way,” Connor says by phone.

He and Lahey plan to make the Titanic journey together in a two-person vessel. “Patrick has been thinking about and designing this for over a decade. But we didn’t have the materials and technology,” Connor says. “You couldn’t have built this sub five years ago.” Called the Triton 4000/2 Abyssal Explorer, it’s listed on the company’s website for $20 million. The “4000” represents the depth it can dive to in meters. Notably, Titanic rests at 3,800 meters.

Connor says he isn’t afraid of the deep. But he’s not fearless. Just the night before our call, he says he had a fright while driving home to his farm: “I almost hit a deer. I was going probably 60 miles per hour. That was scary.”

IN MANY WAYS, the deep sea remains as much an unexplored frontier as outer space. It contains multitudes of undiscovered bounties—treasure, minerals, unexamined forms of life.

The unknown is what draws most people to the world of submersibles. Nearly everyone interviewed for this story expressed an insatiable curiosity about the natural world.

Still, to have reservations about getting inside of even a classed submersible is understandable. There is a trio of phobias associated with these machines. First, claustrophobia—personal space inside a sub is comparable to an economy seat on a domestic flight, and occupants are sealed inside a bubble. Second, thalassophobia, an intense fear of large and deep bodies of water and the terrors they may conceal. And last, agoraphobia: When a vessel is submerged, light refracts so perfectly through the sub’s acrylic bulb that it seems to disappear, leaving some passengers feeling exposed, as if they might actually be swept away. Furthermore, subs that dive deep enough do so in the utter absence of sunlight.

The French have a term, l’appel du vide, meaning “call of the void.” It’s that feeling when you’re waiting for a train and the thought pops into your head: What if I jumped onto the tracks? There’s a thrill to putting personal safety aside in the name of curiosity.

Victor Vescovo is among those who’ve fallen hard for the deep sea. “When he started his journey, it was like, ‘OK, I’m going to plant the flag and be the first at all five deeps,’ ” McCallum says, referring to the oceans’ lowest points. “But he became so enamored with the project that he spent three years of his life doing it.”

A fine-featured Texan with a silver ponytail and penetrating blue eyes, Vescovo is one of the best-known submariners in the world. He holds degrees from Stanford, Harvard and MIT, and served in the U.S. Navy Reserve for 20 years as an intelligence officer. He has scaled the world’s highest mountain on every continent, skied to both the North and South Poles and been to space. He has also taken a sub to the deepest points of all five oceans, and been to the Challenger Deep—the deepest point on Earth’s surface—a record 15 times.

“I don’t do these things for bragging rights,” he says. “If all I wanted to do was break records, there are a lot of records that are a hell of a lot easier to break.”

For him, the pursuit of the ocean’s great unknowns is far more noble than that—one based on a love of science and a relentless curiosity about the world he inhabits.

“My own belief system is that I firmly believe in technology,” he says. “Most of the great ills of our world: food production, medicine, communication, they’ve been satisfied by technology, not politics or religion. So if I can advance us in my own small way, then I believe that’s a great use of my short time here on the planet.”

Vescovo is currently focusing his considerable energies on a project with a scope that includes trying to bring woolly mammoths back to life. Once that is complete, he says he could potentially return to the deep, and dreams of building a sub “that could do even more,” though what that means to a man who has already done so much is unclear. The explorer, who earned his fortune in private equity, spent some $50 million on his last submersible expedition—a substantial portion of his personal fortune. Was it worth the price?

“Oh, yes, every single penny,” he says. “It was money well spent.”

WSJ : An Oil-Patch Brawl Over a $53 Billion Megadeal Entwines the Legacies of Th

An Oil-Patch Brawl Over a $53 Billion Megadeal Entwines the Legacies of Three CEOs
The leaders of Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Hess are duking it out over a generational oil discovery in Guyana

Days after striking a $53 billion purchase of Hess HES 0.74%increase; green up pointing triangle, Chevron CVX 0.52%increase; green up pointing triangle Chief Executive Mike Wirth called his counterpart at Exxon Mobil XOM -0.08%decrease; red down pointing triangle to discuss their future partnership in a mega-oil project Chevron would inherit through the deal.

Darren Woods told Wirth he looked forward to collaboration in Guyana, where Exxon and Hess own portions of a buried treasure of 11 billion barrels of oil and gas. Chevron and Exxon have a long-established partnership in projects around the world, one they could expand off the coast of the rainforest-covered South American country, Woods indicated in the October phone call.

Weeks later, Exxon called with a starkly different message for Chevron and Hess: not so fast.

Exxon executives contended they and China’s CNOOC, a third partner in Guyana, have a contractual right to pre-emptively match Chevron’s offer for Hess’s stake in Guyana. Blindsided, Chevron and Hess disagreed. Both sides dug in, and private talks failed. Amid monthslong discussions, Exxon stunned its rivals again by filing for arbitration and ending talks in March. The proceedings could sink Chevron’s largest-ever deal.

Hinging on the interpretation of several lines in a confidential contract, their dispute has burst like a thunderclap in Houston, the capital of the U.S. oil industry, which hasn’t seen titanic oil companies battle like this since a court fight with Pennzoil forced Texaco into bankruptcy in the 1980s.

The clash between the two largest descendants of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil monopoly has also subsumed some of Wall Street’s most influential advisers, including JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

Now, the fortunes of all three companies are intertwined, as are the legacies of Woods, Wirth and John Hess.

If Exxon wins in arbitration, Chevron’s acquisition of Hess would be rendered effectively impossible. For oilman John Hess, it would mean his eponymous company would likely be much harder to sell, and calls into question what’s next for a CEO about to top off his legacy with a momentous transaction.

For Wirth, it would be the second megadeal he has missed out on in the past five years, and increase the pressure on him to secure another big bounty of oil. Woods, on the other hand, would have the option to buy more of the precious Guyana project, if Hess was a willing seller.

Drillers have rushed recently to secure their future oil reserves. Many oil fields are depleting, and further exploration could take decades to pay off. Wall Street has grown averse to gambling billions on new fields as countries move away from fossil fuels. That has made Guyana’s prolific Stabroek block one of the most coveted in the world, and a crown jewel for Exxon and Hess.

Soon after Chevron’s deal was announced, Exxon’s lawyers, believing the company had a right of first refusal that applied to the transaction, combed through every line of the joint-operating contract for the Guyana project that was written decades ago—a document few have ever seen.

Joint-operating agreements are indispensable in the oil industry, where companies often partner in megaprojects to share risks and investment. The contracts usually contain a right of first refusal for existing partners when one company wants to sell out. Exxon believes that right is triggered by the corporate takeover. Chevron believes the right applies only to an asset sale.

In months of discussions, Exxon laid out a number of concerns that Chevron believed it could address. Both sides seemed to be working toward a resolution, though it’s unclear what it would have entailed, according to people familiar with the discussions. The talks ended suddenly in March when Neil Chapman, a senior vice president at Exxon, told the audience at an investor conference his company had filed for arbitration in the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris. Chevron had learned of the move only a few hours prior, these people said.

If Exxon’s argument prevails, Hess’s Guyana holdings—worth $40 billion or more, by some estimates—would turn into a sort of poison pill. It wouldn’t only blow up the merger with Chevron, per the terms of its agreement with Hess, but would likely scare off any future suitors—except for Exxon itself.

Woods and Chapman maintain their interest is in preserving the sanctity of contracts and their goal is to understand how Chevron valued Guyana—and then to decide which options to explore. Woods has said he isn’t interested in buying Hess outright, but hasn’t ruled out buying Hess’s chunk of the project or other options.

“We’ve got a very attractive resource that, frankly, we put a lot of effort into developing,” Woods said in an interview. “We have an option to understand what a potential transaction for us would look like and evaluate that for our shareholders.”

The dispute over Guyana is a body blow for John Hess, who runs the last major U.S. oil company controlled by a single family. The tycoon has been frustrated with what he views as a highly unusual situation, and is perplexed about what Exxon wants, according to people familiar with his thinking.

Hess and Wirth personally led the negotiations, after they first discussed the idea of a Chevron-Hess deal over dinner in summer 2021. The two disagreed on price then, but started talks in earnest last year. The deal was seen as a coup for Chevron, giving it a piece of its rival Exxon’s most important asset.

For years, Exxon and Chevron have been both friend and foe. They are partners on multibillion-dollar projects in places like Kazakhstan and Australia. But the oil giants have also competed fiercely for a shrinking pool of investors willing to park their cash in fossil-fuel companies.

Despite the competition, Woods and Wirth have enjoyed cordial relations—occasionally dining together—since their tenures began in 2017 and 2018, respectively, say people familiar with the matter.

In the eyes of many investors, Exxon has long held the role of big brother to Chevron, with larger oil production and superior profits. But the rivalry shifted in the mid-2010s when Chevron’s shareholder returns in some years began outpacing those of the industry, including Exxon’s.

Wall Street credited Wirth’s cost-conscious approach, which aligned with investors’ push for austerity and a focus on cutting carbon emissions. Investors favored Wirth’s move to walk away from a bid for shale giant Anadarko Petroleum in 2019 after Occidental Petroleum outbid Chevron with a successful offer of $38 billion. Chevron pocketed a $1 billion breakup fee.

“Chevron, under Mike’s leadership, has navigated some pretty tempestuous waters quite well, and it’s undeniable the company is better today than it was in 2018,” said Dan Pickering, chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

As Chevron ascended, Exxon suffered setbacks. Woods’ plan to spend heavily to grow production turned off investors. In 2020, Chevron overtook Exxon as the largest U.S. oil company by market value. In 2021, Exxon lost a proxy challenge to a little-known activist investor who placed three directors on Exxon’s board as it pushed the company to better navigate the energy transition and cut spending.

But in the past few years, Exxon’s fortunes have risen. It collected record profits in 2022 and paid out record shareholder distributions last year. Woods’ countercyclical investments, unpopular with some investors at the time, paid off when energy prices came roaring back after the pandemic. He won the full backing of his board for this year’s $60 billion purchase of West Texas fracker Pioneer Natural Resources, a deal well-liked on Wall Street.

Woods has used the momentum to aggressively pursue Exxon’s interests, according to people familiar with the matter. While Exxon, which employs an army of lawyers, is famous for its willingness to fight, the challenge to the Hess deal has turned heads in Houston.

Though the dispute risks some reputational blowback for Exxon, the fate of the deal is more consequential for Wirth than Woods, investors and analysts say.

Wall Street sees the deal for Hess as critical to securing Chevron’s long-term oil reserves and profits. Investors and analysts said if the Hess deal falls through, and Chevron doesn’t acquire another large company or asset, they are concerned the company’s oil-production portfolio could grow thinner in coming years. At the same time, many of the biggest and most attractive companies have been scooped up in a flurry of deals over the past year.

Chevron executives have tried to reassure investors it has plenty of other prospects, including promising frontier exploration in Namibia, the potential of liquefied natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, its megaproject in Kazakhstan and its operations in the Gulf of Mexico and the Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico.

But Hess’s Guyana stake represents Chevron’s best option to grow in the eyes of many. The Guyana consortium is expected to produce 1.2 million barrels a day by 2027 and continue pumping large amounts of oil for years, having approved more than $50 billion in project spending thus far.

“If they lose it, then I think it will be a substantial blow to his reputation,” said Paul Cheng, an analyst at Scotiabank.

Chevron and Hess’s advisers spotted the right of first refusal during deal due diligence, but believed it didn’t apply to the transaction and thought it was unlikely Exxon would pursue it, said people familiar with the matter. Chevron’s financial advisers included Morgan Stanley and Evercore, while Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison served as its legal adviser. Hess’s financial advisers were Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase.

Hess shareholders are due to decide whether to approve the deal or not on Tuesday. Several investors have said they would abstain from voting due to the feud with Exxon.

The sale to Chevron was supposed to be a regal send-off for the 70-year-old John Hess, allowing him to merge the firm he took over from his famously gruff father, Leon Hess, with the second-largest Western oil company. The merger agreement provides for John Hess to join Chevron’s board, a role that would give him a say in the future of the combined entity.

Legendary Wall Street lawyer Martin Lipton, a founding partner of law firm Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz advised Hess on the deal. Shortly after it was announced, he said in an interview that John Hess had concluded Chevron was the best possible buyer for his family company.

“This wasn’t digging up a deal or being forced into a deal,” Lipton said.

John Hess and his family own a roughly 9% stake in Hess worth around $4.3 billion, and the CEO stands to net about $50 million in cash and stock from the change in control alone, according to company filings.

With the transaction in limbo, uncertainty has trickled down to the workforce, with Hess staffers concerned about what lies ahead, according to several employees.

An Exxon win in the arbitration would essentially give that company veto power over who Hess gets sold to—or even if it gets sold at all. It means that Hess might have to go on operating as an independent company, which raises the question of whether John Hess would remain at the helm—and if not, who would succeed him. Before the deal with Chevron, he hadn’t anointed a successor and was prepared to remain in the CEO seat for years.

Compounding John Hess’s irritation with Exxon is his view that Hess was pivotal in helping turn the fortunes of the Guyana project around.

His company bought Shell’s stake there in 2014 after Exxon and Shell logged dozens of dry wells bereft of oil. Exxon executives have told John Hess his company was essential to the venture’s success, according to people familiar with the matter. The CEO feels that his geologists played an important role in the exploration efforts that led to a prodigious find. Woods has publicly praised Hess’s work in Guyana.

Hess’s stock price soared in recent years as oil came pouring from the South American discovery. Some large Hess investors are hopeful Hess will end up being acquired by either Chevron or Exxon.

“If John Hess wants to sell, somebody’s gonna buy it,” said John Levin, founder of asset manager Levin Capital Strategies and a long-term Hess shareholder.