>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 29th of May 2024

>>> Up
* Ageas Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 52.50 euros
* On The Beach Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 180 pence
* Renault Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 70 euros
* Rockwool Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Sandnes Sparebank Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 109 kroner
* SpareBank 1 Nordmoere Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 145 kroner
* Sparebanken Ost Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 62 kroner
* SpareBank 1 Ringerike Hadeland Raised to Buy at SpareBank
* Swiss Re Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 135 Swiss francs
* Tauron Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 5.20 zloty
* United Airlines Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT $65

>>> Down
* American Air Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $12
* DELIVERY HERO CUT TO EQUAL-WEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
* Eurogroup Laminations Rated New Neutral at Mediobanca SpA
* Mobico Group Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* PGE Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 6.70 zloty
* Verbund Cut to Reduce at Erste Group; PT 70.80 euros

>>> Initiation
* Cadeler Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 87 kroner
* DG Innovate Rated New Corporate at Finncap; PT 0.25 pence
* Schaeffler Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT 8.10 euros
* Schneider Electric Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Suess MicroTec Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 71 euros
* Syensqo Rated New Buy at UBS; PT 119 euros
* Vitesco Reinstated Buy at Citi; PT 92 euros

>>> Call
* Delivery Hero, Jahez Cut at Morgan Stanley, Deliveroo Top Pick
* Mobico Group Cut to Hold at Berenberg, Upside Still ‘Opaque’
* Rockwool Upgraded at Morgan Stanley on Better Pricing Resilience
* Schneider Electric Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, Balanced Risk
* Suess MicroTec a Leader in Niche Markets, New Buy at Berenberg

>>> What to look at today - 29th of May 2024

Stocks and bonds in Asia traded lower Wednesday as traders assessed the impact of the jump in US Treasury yields overnight and comments from a Federal Reserve speaker led to receding bets for Fed rate cuts. MSCI’s Asia Pacific Index fell for a second day, as shares from Hong Kong to Japan and Australia dropped. A selloff in Australian bonds deepened after inflation figures topped estimates, while Japanese benchmark yields hit their highest since 2011.  Treasuries steadied in Asia after falling on a pair of weak US note sales and ahead of the Fed’s favorite price gauge due later this week. China’s yuan slid to the lowest since November amid signs policymakers are letting the currency drop against a resilient dollar. Emerging Asian currencies, including South Korea’s won and Malaysia’s ringgit also weakened. The yen held near an almost 16-year low against the pound. The Japanese currency is sliding faster against the euro than the dollar as speculation grows that the European Central Bank will take it slow in cutting interest rates because inflation remains elevated. Oil extended gains as another attack in the Red Sea added to heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ahead of an OPEC+ meeting on the weekend. West Texas Intermediate climbed above $80 a barrel, while Brent futures advanced 0.4%. In the corporate news, Lenovo Group said it plans to sell $2 billion worth of zero-coupon convertible bonds to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, the latest Chinese company to seek capital through such an issue within a matter of days. As Wall Street returned from the holiday weekend, the “T+1” rule came into effect — making US equities settle in one day rather than two.  Investors also waded through remarks from Fed ‘s Kashkari, who said the central bank’s policy stance is restrictive, but officials haven’t entirely ruled out additional rate hikes. Bond traders who are stuck in a waiting game over Fed rate policy may soon get some welcome support. Starting on Wednesday, and for the first time since the early 2000s, the Treasury Department will launch a series of buybacks targeting seasoned and harder-to-trade debt. Then in June, the US central bank is set to begin tapering the pace of its balance-sheet unwind, known as quantitative tightening, or QT.  The Fed’s first-line inflation gauge is about to show some modest relief from stubborn price pressures, corroborating central bankers’ prudence about the timing of interest-rate cuts. Economists expect the personal consumption expenditures price index minus food and energy — due on Friday — to rise 0.2% in April. That would mark the smallest advance so far this year for the measure, which provides a better snapshot of underlying inflation. Swap contracts are currently pricing in around 30 basis points of Fed rate cuts for all of 2024 — which equates to one reduction as the Fed moves have historically been increments of 25 basis points. US After Hours AAL -8.3% falls on lowered guidance; CAVA -2.6% lower on earnings; HEI +3.3%, BOX +2% higher on earnings; HOOD +5.3% on new $1 bln share repurchase authorization.

Nikkei -0.79% Hang Seng -1.78% CSI +0.11% Shanghai -0.01% Shenzen +0.25%

Eur$ 1.0847 CNH 7.2658 CNY 7.2484 JPY 157.26 GBP 1.2750 CHF 0.9125 RUB 88.5748 TRY 32.2712 WTI$ 80.13 +0.38% Gold 2,359 -0.11% BTC 68,742 +0.72% ETH 3,865 +0.95%

S&P -0.38% Nasdaq -0.36% EuroStoxx -0.26% FTSE -0.50% Dax -0.46% SMI -0.34%

Macro :
- Germany Has Only Drawn 22% of Its Recovery Fund Allotment: HB
- BlackRock’s $20 Billion ETF Is Now World’s Largest Bitcoin Fund

Keep an eye on :
- ADENO : Adevinta 1Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- AT1 GY : Aroundtown 1Q Adjusted Ebitda EU247.4M Vs. EU246.0M Y/y
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Accounts Probed Over Treatment of Bad Loans: MF
- EN FP : Bouygues Says SFR, La Poste Have Differences on Telecom Deal
- DARK LN : To Join FTSE 100
- ROO LN : Deliveroo Shares Gain After Betaville ‘Uncooked Alert’
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom, Swisscom, Telenor Front-Runners for AI Boost
- FWRD US : Activist Investor Irenic Builds Stake in Forward Air -- WSJ
- HES US : Hess Unlikely to Get Another Bidder Post-Shareholder OK: React
- IWG LN : International Workplace Group Holder Offers ~35m Shares: Terms, Offered @ GBp196.50/share
- MRX US : Marex Group Shares Rise to Fresh Highs After Pact With Stifel
- MRK US : Merck Nears $1.3 Billion Deal for Eye-Drug Company EyeBio -- WSJ
- MCHP US : Microchip to Offer $1.1 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes
- OCDO LN : to leave FTSE 100
- ORSTED DC : Orsted to Pay New Jersey $125 Million for Scrapped Wind Projects
- ROG SW : Roche’s Inavolisib Granted Priority Review by US FDA
- RWE GY : SSE, RWE See Earnings Boost in Europe's AI Power Demand Surge
- IDS LN : Royal Mail Parent Set to Recommend Kretinsky Offer: Reuters
- SCYR SM : Sacyr Enters Derivatives Agreement Over Own Shares
- SAND SS : Sandvik's SMR Unit May Get Upside From Miner Spending: BI Focus
- SBBB SS : Landlord SBB Sets Date for Payout of Postponed Dividend
- STJ LN : to leave FTSE 100
- SHEL LN : Shell Plans Job Cuts in Offshore Wind Business in Green Retrench
- SPI AV : S Immo in Pact to Sell German Portfolio at Total Value of EU255m
- SSE LN : SSE, RWE See Earnings Boost in Europe's AI Power Demand Surge
- STR AV : Strabag Order Book EU24.55B Vs. EU24.51B Y/y
- SCMN SW : Deutsche Telekom, Swisscom, Telenor Front-Runners for AI Boost
- VTY LN : To Join FTSE 100
- VOW GY : VW to Build €20,000 EVs On Its Own, Forgoing Partnerships
- VOW GY : US Authorities Cite Labor Violations at Volkswagen Mexico Plant
- VOW GY : Volkswagen CEO Faces Investor Calls to Sharpen EV Strategy
- WAY US : Waystar, Novelis Lead the Pack as IPO Market Warms Up: ECM Watch

FT : Hypercars: the potential investment gains are attracting the attention of t

Hypercars: the potential investment gains are attracting the attention of the super-rich
For those who can afford the typical £2mn-plus price tag, the prize is owning a limited edition vehicle and being part of an elite group

In a car showroom in London, high-end car dealer Joe Macari is in full flow. “It’s a piece of art,” he says, of the gleaming McLaren F1, the centrepiece of more than £100mn worth of classic and modern cars.

Unhitching the VIP rope, he pushes a button near the car’s rear wheel arch. The door unhinges up and out from the body, like a bat unfurling a wing. “But it’s a piece of art you can drive on a Sunday morning,” he says, with a twinkle in his eye.  

The F1 is part of a production run of 106 that started in 1992. The model is considered by many as the world’s first hypercar — a moniker applied to a small group of elite vehicles, made by some of the world’s most celebrated sports-car makers, and several you have probably never heard of.

The cars are built to racetrack specifications, but — with features such as soundproofing, internal passenger seats and (albeit tiny) luggage compartments — sold to be driven on the road. 

Besides their race-car speeds, hypercars also offer those rich enough to afford the typically £2mn-plus price tags the lure of striking looks, peerless engineering bloodstock, and the opportunity to be part of an exclusive group of owners, ensured by tightly limited editions. 

Another attraction is their potential to increase in price, confounding the rule that new cars depreciate the moment they leave the showroom.

In recent years, the most sought-after examples, delivered to a handful of favoured clients, have been offered for resale at premiums exceeding 50 per cent, before the first has even been constructed. Many of the most bankable are made by Ferrari. But the McLaren F1, built between 1992 and 1998, and sold at the time for £541,00 plus taxes, would today set you back around £15mn. 

“I’ve made at least 40 per cent [profit] on my collection,” says one hypercar owner, based in the Middle East, who has a large share in a family conglomerate and owns several businesses in real estate and other sectors.

He has been collecting cars since his late teens and has eclectic taste. “Off-roaders, classics, large wheelbase vehicles — my Mini Cooper still puts a smile on my face,” he says. But his hypercars are the crown jewels. “It’s something about the experience of driving at speed.”

He bought his first, a Ferrari Enzo, in 2007. Soon after, he added a Mercedes-Benz SLR McLaren and a Bugatti Veyron — at the time, the world’s most expensive production car. 

In all, he has owned 19 hypercars — among them models from most of the leading manufacturers, including Ferrari’s LaFerrari, two Porsche 918 Spyders, two Paganis, a McLaren P1, and three Koenigseggs. 

Today, he is considering buying a Gordon Murray, the eponymous new brand launched by the chief designer of the McLaren F1.

“My biggest gain was on a Pagani Zonda, which I bought for $1.68mn and sold for $4mn,” he says, of the Italian company’s model, which was produced until 2019. One of the Koenigseggs he owns, which he bought for $2.2mn, is now worth between $5.5mn and $6mn, he estimates. 

His biggest regret, however, was passing up a McLaren F1 offered to him for $3mn in 2014. Instead, he spent the same amount on a Bugatti Chiron Super Sport.

“I thought it was a safer bet: a new car, fewer made than the McLaren, the top speed in the world at the time, and it looked great,” he says. 


Five years later, on a tour of the McLaren factory in Woking, England, he recognised the car he had rejected, which had just changed hands for $14mn. In 2018, he sold the Bugatti, which had failed to capture the imagination of owners or critics, despite its speed, for $2mn. 

“You win some, you lose some,” he reflects.

Thanks to growing numbers of global super-rich and a long period of ultra-low interest rates, the ranks of hypercar owners have grown in recent years.

James Banks, who was head of bespoke cars at McLaren until 2019 and now runs LaSource Automotive, a hypercar broker, estimates that, 20 years ago, there were no more than a few hundred people in the world with the means and desire to buy a hypercar. “Today, there are several thousand,” he says. 

In 2020 and 2021, cheap money and sharp gains in equity sectors such as technology left the super-rich flush with cash, while pandemic restrictions cut off many from their favourite hobbies. Helped by news of hypercars’ investment gains — much of it published on social media by owners, brokers and enthusiasts — a large number of new rich buyers entered the market, sending valuations to record levels. 

“We had a lot of new customers with access to money who were not car people,” says Macari. “They were thinking: my friend has one and it’s gone up 20 per cent in price, I’d like some of that.”


Price rises were highly selective, though, favouring Ferraris and other cars that had been in the limelight and were instantly recognisable. “The price of a pristine, low mileage Ferrari F40 increased from £1.1mn to about £2.1mn in two years,” he says.

Other models hardly budged. “Koenigseggs appreciated less; Aston Martins were basically flat,” Macari explains. He gestures to a gleaming black 1967 Lamborghini Miura, parked near the McLaren. It was the fastest production road car at the time, and the first non-racing car to feature two seats with the engine in the rear — a design which became the hypercar template. 

“But it’s an enthusiast’s car, so it was ignored,” he says. “[New investors] were only after certain cars in each group.” 

For Banks, the emergence of hypercars as a financial asset goes back to 2015. “The right car became seemingly a concrete investment; people were selling cars off-plan, just from a concept sketch,” he says.

The gains on offer to those fortunate to secure a “slot” on the list of a favoured new hypercar can be huge, with many cars changing hands for steep premiums before they are even delivered. For example, Ferrari’s latest, the Daytona SP3, a run of 599, is priced at £1.7mn, and all have been sold, according to the company. “I could sell one tomorrow for between £3mn and £4mn,” says Richard Hawken, of EMM, which he describes as a private office for collectable car owners. “It’s free money, basically.”

New editions by Porsche are also highly sought after, as are those of Bugatti, Lamborghini and Pagani.

For buyers to be included on the list, they usually require a long-standing record of purchasing hypercars.

In recent years, many collectors have focused more on low-mileage cars, which command a steep premium, over other examples. “The trend started in the US, where the biggest collections are; you’ve seen it come over to Europe in the last five to seven years,” says Macari.

“The biggest damage to value is mileage — a lot of these cars never see the road,” says Dietrich Hatlapa, founder of Historic Automobile Group International, which produces an annual classic car index that includes hypercars. In some countries, keeping a car off the public highway can mean big savings. In Denmark, for example, the road-use registration tax on the portion of a car’s value greater than DKr210,600 ($30,430) is 150 per cent. 

“These are more museum pieces than things you’re going to use,” says Robert Verdun, a partner in a private equity business, who sold a management consulting business in 2015, and is a member of TIGER 21, a network of very wealthy investors. 

Splitting his time between Detroit and Fort Lauderdale, he is on his latest of several Ferraris, and has various yachts, with a combined value of about $5mn. 

Verdun finds hypercars fascinating. He has visited the Pagani factory in Italy twice, and acknowledges the investment returns on offer for those who pick the right cars are remarkable. But he has no plans to buy one.

“The most enjoyable thing about high-end cars is driving them,” he says. “I’m not a guy who wants a big collection of stuff in a vault.”

FT : Food delivery apps rack up $20bn in losses in fierce battle for diners

Food delivery apps rack up $20bn in losses in fierce battle for diners
DoorDash, Deliveroo, Delivery Hero and Just Eat Takeaway put new focus on profits, despite slower growth following the pandemic

Leading online food delivery groups in Europe and the US have racked up more than $20bn in combined operating losses since they went public, after a fierce battle for market share.

Shares in Deliveroo, Just Eat Takeaway, Delivery Hero and DoorDash — the four largest standalone, publicly listed food-delivery businesses in the US and Europe — are all trading well below their pandemic-era peaks, as investors scrutinise their business models.

Following a period of pandemic lockdown-fuelled growth, the four companies are now contending with a tougher macroeconomic environment that has hit consumers.

As they make a renewed push to demonstrate profitability to investors, their cumulative annual operating losses have now hit $20.3bn, calculations by the Financial Times and industry analyst theDelivery.World found.

The figure covers the seven years since Deliveroo, Delivery Hero and DoorDash went public and after Just Eat Takeaway was created following a merger in 2020. It includes substantial writedowns related to acquisitions and stock-based compensation.

“Investors’ willingness to fund losses has changed” and they now want food delivery businesses to “demonstrate sustainable, profitable growth” after a rise in interest rates, said UBS analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb.

Rival Uber does not break out the profitability of its Eats business but marked its first full year of operating profitability at a group level in 2023 following a concerted push to boost margins, a moment the company hailed as an “inflection point”.


For years, venture capital groups poured money into so-called “gig economy” companies that subsidised food deliveries in order to lure customers with low prices and win market share.

However, investors have switched their focus to profitability as interest rates have risen, even as the operating costs incurred by the companies, including for marketing, remain high.

The sector must also contend with enduring scrutiny from regulators and labour groups over workers’ rights. If couriers were paid higher wages, sceptics have argued consumers would never be willing to pay for the true cost of food delivery.

Nevertheless, stock market analysts are becoming more optimistic that the companies can improve financials. In April, the three European players said they expected this year to follow DoorDash in becoming free cash flow positive on an annual basis.


The focus on free cash flow follows a long-standing emphasis among companies in the sector on an alternative measure of profits — adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation — that strips out a range of costs such as legal provisions.

But many people “don’t see [adjusted earnings metrics] as a true level of profitability of the underlying business”, said Joseph McNamara, an analyst at Citi.

Operating losses offer “the best standardised view across all companies” that minimised adjustments and other non-cash and non-operational impacts, said Amanda Benincasa Arena, a partner at management consulting firm Aon.

Whether the companies could show they were generating more cash than they were spending was the next major “litmus test”, McNamara added, now that the stage of “growth at all costs” was over.

Giles Thorne, an analyst at Jefferies, noted consumers had continued to use the services in recent years “despite having less money and despite being charged more” — because of fewer discounts and higher inflation — which he said supported the sector’s long-term prospects.

While the online food delivery sector was boosted by the impact of the pandemic, sales growth rates have dropped in the years since. The groups have sought to develop new revenue streams to help accelerate growth, such as grocery delivery and higher-margin advertising businesses.


Uber has credited the broadening range of services that it offers with helping boost overall sales, increase user numbers and improve economies of scale.

The maturing industry is also witnessing a period of consolidation, with some players exiting certain markets and others looking to double down in locations they believe they can dominate.

US-focused DoorDash previously told the FT that it was looking to push into new markets, while Delivery Hero announced in May it planned to sell its Taiwan business to Uber in order to “focus our resources” on other places. In January, the German group also sold its minority stake in London-listed Deliveroo.

Historic deals have also hit some of the four companies’ bottom lines, however, with a sharp fall in industry valuations leading to writedowns.

The extent of JET’s losses in 2022 and 2023 were driven in part by a total of $6.5bn in writedowns in the value of businesses it had acquired, with impairments mostly related to Grubhub, which JET has struggled to offload since 2022, and Just Eat. Delivery Hero has also reported substantial recent writedowns totalling about $1.7bn in 2022 and 2023.

Impairments could indicate an acquisition or merger was not “panning out” as hoped, said Aon’s Benincasa Arena. Consistent writedowns could mean a company was “entering into incorrect markets via acquisition or that they aren’t executing operations correctly once in these markets”, she said.

Expenses related to employee share awards have also hit operating profits, with DoorDash reporting more than $1bn in such expenses in 2023.

Deliveroo said: “We continue to make strong progress against our strategic priorities and remain confident in our ability to deliver profitable growth.”

DoorDash said it had “invested billions” to help merchants “build successful businesses”, adding the company expected to deliver “[generally accepted accounting principles] profitability over time”.

Emmanuel Thomassin, chief financial officer at Delivery Hero, said operating losses included “items which are not considered as operational relevant to measure the economic development of the company”. The company is more focused on other metrics including free cash flow, he added.

JET declined to comment.

Reuters : Uber to offer Seine cruises, day trips in Paris during Olympics rush

Uber to offer Seine cruises, day trips in Paris during Olympics rush

May 29 (Reuters) - Uber Technologies (UBER.N), opens new tab unveiled a raft of measures on Wednesday, including a tie-up to offer cruises on the Seine river as it looks to meet explosive demand stemming from the upcoming Olympics in Paris.
The ride-hailing platform will offer its "Uber Cruises" free of charge from July 12 to August 3, and customers can also book a day trip that includes a champagne tasting through its "Uber Bubbles" launch.

Uber also plans to make a "significant" investment in driver incentives and discounts for riders. The company did not disclose the amount it is investing in these initiatives.


WHY IT'S IMPORTANT
More than 15 million visitors are expected to arrive in Paris this summer - a 30% increase from previous years - straining public transport networks, the company said.
It expects a record 40,000 drivers to provide rides on its platform during the Olympics.

FT : Russia sanctions are ineffective, says Dubai trade hub chief

Russia sanctions are ineffective, says Dubai trade hub chief
Measures imposed on Moscow do not halt business but simply redirect it, DMCC chair says

Sanctions on Russia are having no impact outside the west and attempts to halt the flow of business merely redirect it elsewhere, the chair of Dubai’s main trading hub has said. 

“Sanctions slow the economy, never stop it,” said Hamad Buamim, chair of the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre, a leading United Arab Emirates free trade zone that says it hosts more than 24,000 businesses. He is also president of Dubai’s chamber of commerce. “Trade continues flowing, it just flows in a different way,” he told the Financial Times in an interview.

Buamim’s comments come as Dubai leverages its geographical position between east and west to cement itself as a node for world commerce at a time when sanctions imposed on Russia over the war in Ukraine, economic protectionism and US-China tensions are reshaping global trade.

Dubai is seen as a beneficiary of US and European attempts to isolate Russia’s economy, as oil traders relocated from Geneva to the UAE after Switzerland joined the sanctions imposed on Moscow. Energy is the most important sector for the DMCC, according to Buamim, with some 3,000 energy companies registered in the zone.

However, in recent months the UAE, along with other countries, has been under pressure from the US, EU and UK to act against companies trading with Russia.

“The fact that the economy is not purely controlled by one side of the world makes these sanctions less effective,” Buamim said. “If we just take the Ukraine conflict, [sanctions] are effective when you look west, but they are not really effective beyond that.”

He added: “We don’t see them as a great tool to make any impact. They are just making trade more complex and impacting the whole world.”

The US has in particular targeted international banks that finance trade deals. The UK has also imposed sanctions on the Dubai-based oil trader Paramount Energy & Commodities DMCC, an entity set up shortly before G7 members imposed a price cap on Russian oil and that shares its name with Paramount Energy & Commodities SA, a Swiss group founded by veteran Dutch trader Niels Troost.

The European parliament, meanwhile, has voted against removing the UAE from the EU’s “grey list” of high-risk countries, alleging it had made lacklustre efforts to address Russian sanctions evasion. The issue is now with the European Commission.

The restrictions have made it difficult for Russia to produce advanced weapons and sustain the rate of fire it maintained earlier in the war, according to defence analysts.

The CREA, a Finnish energy think-tank, said sanctions on Russian oil exports cost the Kremlin an estimated €34bn in 2023, with almost all the cost coming from driving down the price of Russian oil.

This month, Gazprom also reported a $7bn loss after Russian gas exports halved in the wake of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Russia has also faced significant price rises on types of imports targeted by sanctions and export controls.

But Buamim said the sanctions were not the reason companies had relocated to Dubai. “It is not the Russians that really dominated the growth. We had growth coming from Switzerland. We have companies from other countries. They see that Dubai has the infrastructure, the market access and the neutral stance [on the war].” 

Many international companies who had to leave Russia also needed to find a location where their Russian staff would be welcome, he added. 

Buamim was speaking as the DMCC released a report on the future of trade that predicted increasing challenges from deglobalisation and climate change, balanced in part by the use of AI to redraw and manage logistics. 

“Protectionism has started to top the agenda of all politicians. Unfortunately, politics is driving decisions that are not commercially viable for the global economy,” he said. 

Until now, he said, the UAE and the Gulf states in general had managed to maintain a neutral position that was, for example, “neither pro-American or anti-China”. But this was becoming more difficult to maintain as the US started to ask countries to choose sides, he said. 

“That tension between the US and China is no longer a US-China problem,” Buamim said. “This is a challenge for businesses throughout the world.” 

FT : How Boeing’s troubles are affecting its suppliers

How Boeing’s troubles are affecting its suppliers
Makers of parts for the US’s largest aircraft manufacturer wrestle with uncertainty over demand and production

Boeing’s troubles are bleeding out to its supply chain, where uncertainty over production rates has suppliers guessing at how many parts to make and limiting production to avoid the cost of holding too much stock.

The slowdown in manufacturing the 737 Max is testing the resilience of a brittle aerospace supply chain that already has faced years of price cuts and choppy production thanks to Covid-19 and two fatal crashes that grounded the Max worldwide.

Without a well-oiled supply chain, Boeing will struggle to deliver jets to airlines clamouring for them, and could destabilise labour in an industry that employs hundreds of thousands of workers in good-paying jobs.

Production rates were “the elephant in the room”, Astronics chief executive Peter Gundermann told investors earlier this month. Headquartered in upstate New York, the electric power systems maker counts Boeing as its largest customer.

Each 737 Max contained about $95,000 in Astronics products, Gundermann said. Earnings will still fall within the company’s guidance if it ships fewer sets, but it could lose $11.5mn in revenue.

“Will they slow down suppliers?” he said. “They might, it’s unclear . . . What would they reschedule us to? I mean it’s kind of a wild guess at this point, nobody really knows.”

Boeing has slowed production of its workhorse jet, the 737 Max, as it tries to improve production quality following a door panel blowout on a flight in January. It is facing a deadline of next Thursday from federal aviation regulators to deliver a plan that addresses what a panel of aviation experts described as a flawed safety culture.

The Federal Aviation Administration has capped Boeing’s production of the Max at 38 per month. Boeing is building fewer than that but plans to raise output to 38 in the second half of the year. Chief financial officer Brian West has said the company is adjusting the schedules that govern the pace and volume at which it buys parts, from landing gear to lavatories. 

That affects the operations and finances for suppliers, some of which are public companies with market capitalisations in the billions. The ones that do a lot of business with Boeing were “feeling the pain at the moment”, said one industry consultant.

“Everybody was expecting a ramp-up in the production of the 737 and 787,” he said. “They may have invested in people or capacity to meet that ramp- up, and when they get pushed back, it’s a problem.”

The supply chain already had been “severely weakened” over the past decade, said Kevin Michaels, managing director of Aerodynamic Advisory. Former Boeing CEO Jim McNerney began an initiative in 2012 that continued under Dennis Muilenburg where the manufacturer insisted on price cuts and extending payment terms.

“If you’ve set up rules where your supply chain can’t function, you can’t get a return on capital, then that means that you’re probably going to play Whac-A-Mole when you try to ramp up to a higher rate,” he said.

Spirit, which has had its own struggles with quality, has been the most high-profile casualty of the slowdown on the Max. Boeing stopped accepting Max fuselages from the Kansas manufacturer that do not meet specifications in an effort to reduce “travelled work” at its own factory in Renton, Washington, where work performed out of sequence increases the likelihood of manufacturing errors. 

Though the two companies reached a deal in April for Boeing to pay Spirit $425mn, the supplier still reported a first-quarter operating cash outflow of $416mn, a $617mn net loss and increased inventory. It said on May 16 it would lay off about 450 workers.

Joe Buccino, a Spirit spokesman, said the company would “always adjust to the delivery rate of our customer”.

In a statement, Boeing spokesman Paul Lewis said: “We continue to work closely with each of our suppliers as we manage and execute our production rate plans.”

But Spirit is far from alone. Howmet Aerospace, Triumph Group, Hexcel, Senior and ATI all have been affected by the slowdown on the 737, though some have offset it with other work, such as overhauling geared turbofan engines or securing more defence work where demand is booming.

Triumph chief executive Daniel Crowley said last week that for fiscal year 2025, ending March 31, the company assumed its rate to deliver products to Boeing would slow 20-30 per cent, depending on the programme and component. Triumph expects $1.2bn in sales for the fiscal year — about $70mn less than its earlier internal assumption.

Triumph supplies about $300,000 worth of equipment on each Max, including systems to extend and retract landing gear and the gearbox for the engine. It supplies about $1mn worth on the 787. 

“We’ve adopted conservative assumptions,” Crowley said. “And we don’t expect to have to come back to investors and analysts and say, ‘Hey, it’s actually worse, and we’ve got a hole in our forecast’.”

The company also has slowed ordering materials from its own suppliers, which it increased last year in anticipation of increased production rates.

The slowdown at Boeing caused the company to “completely replan” its year, Howmet chief executive John Plant said earlier this month. Howmet is now assuming Boeing will produce 20 Maxes a month for the rest of the year, down from a previous assumption of 34. With its fastener business, Howmet is planning to deliver lower volumes “to prevent the case where we get caught with a lot of . . . inventory”.

The strains in the supply chain have rippled through to Boeing’s main rival, Airbus, which is boosting production to meet surging demand from airline customers and needs its suppliers to keep pace. But suppliers often service Boeing and Airbus, making it difficult to assume additional fixed costs, such as more staff, when the plane makers’ production rates diverge. High interest rates have only increased the cost pressures.

The supply chain was stressed, Airbus chief executive Guillaume Faury told investors in April, and “we see this knock-on effect”.

FT : Nicolas Berggruen, the modern-day Medici

Nicolas Berggruen, the modern-day Medici
The man once known as ‘the homeless billionaire’ is putting down roots in Venice. It’s all part of his plan to change the world with big ideas

Nicolas Berggruen is running late. I’m waiting for the billionaire German-American investor and philanthropist on the balcony of Venice’s Palazzo Malipiero, his latest acquisition, but the views of the Grand Canal more than compensate for any delay. The frenetic opening week of the 60th Venice Biennale is drawing to a close, and in addition to the shows at official pavilions, there have been exhibitions and programmes sponsored by potentates such as François Pinault, Miuccia Prada, Bernard Arnault and Sheikha Al Mayassa of Qatar. Not to be outdone, Berggruen has staged events in his own three landmark buildings. The properties are still in various stages of restoration, but Berggruen is emerging as a modern-day Medici, the city’s most dynamic and thrilling new patron. 

Stuck outside the Byzantine-era palazzo, Berggruen calls me, asking for help getting in. None of his staff are answering the doorbell. (Being a billionaire means never having to carry a house key, it turns out.) He also wants to know if I’ve managed to find a chair. I don’t see one. The enormous salons are magnificently empty – all the better to appreciate their frescoes, marbles and stucco work. 



One of the few palaces on the Grand Canal with a formal garden, Palazzo Malipiero dates from around the 11th century. During the 18th, it was home to Alvise Malipiero, a Venetian senator, legendary libertine – and mentor to Giacomo Casanova, who lived in the palazzo until he was caught in flagrante with one of Malipiero’s lovers and banished. It remained one of the last great palazzi on the Grand Canal still in Venetian family hands until last year, when Berggruen jumped at the chance to buy it from surviving members of the patrician Barnabò clan. 

Berggruen’s cultural immersion began in early childhood. As an infant, he sat on Picasso’s lap. His late father, Heinz, an eminent German-Jewish art dealer and collector, had settled on Paris’s Left Bank after the second world war – which he had spent in San Francisco, after fleeing the Nazis in 1936 – and the Spanish artist was one of many creative luminaries who frequented the family apartment. Later, fuelled by intellectual debate, the teenage Berggruen began reading French and German philosophy and political theory. “It was all over my head,” he says. “I was super-leftwing. I didn’t want to learn English, because it was the language of imperialism. But as opposed to being a revolutionary, I thought, ‘Well, let’s understand the other side.’” 


Indeed, he went over to “the evil side”, first in London where he worked as a trainee for London Merchant Securities chair Max Rayne. After graduating from New York University in the early 1980s, he began investing, drawing on $250,000 from his trust fund. He proved to have a canny instinct (according to Forbes, his fortunes now total $3.2bn). And with his lavish, art-filled residences in New York and Miami, and his flashy parties attended by movie stars and models, he gained a reputation. “It worked out fine,” Berggruen summarises about his playboy period. “It was financially rewarding, but I wasn’t stimulated.” 

In the mid-2000s, he divested himself of his residences and worldly trophies. With no fixed address, the bachelor became known as “the homeless billionaire”. A business nomad, he lived out of five-star hotels, hopscotching between locations on his Gulfstream IV (he couldn’t bring himself to give up the jet). 

It was in Los Angeles that he began to privately study philosophy and political theory with UCLA professors. “I got back to my original interests, to what I really cared about as a teenager,” he says. In 2010, he established the Berggruen Institute, which describes itself as “a global network of thinkers navigating change through ideas”. It was kickstarted by $100mn of his own funds (topped up with $500mn three years later) and the clout of a stellar board of directors, including former Google CEO Eric E Schmidt, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and Thrive Global CEO and founder Arianna Huffington. Likewise, numerous committees are filled with impressive thinkers: The Berggruen Network, for example, counts many former world leaders, including Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Gerhard Schröder and Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as titans of finance, tech, industry and letters such as Stephen Schwarzman, Pierre Omidyar, John Elkann, Frances Fukuyama and Timothy Garton Ash, to name a few.

Initiatives include the annual Berggruen Prize for Philosophy and Culture, a $1mn award intended to rival the Nobel. “We wanted to acknowledge that philosophical ideas are just as important as physics or chemistry,” says Berggruen. The recipient for 2023, sociologist Patricia Hill Collins, best known for her work to elevate Black feminist thought and develop intersectionality, will receive her prize in a gala ceremony in Washington, DC, on 6 June. 

Berggruen is “a serious, serious intellectual player”, says Schmidt. He marvels at what he and others refer to as Berggruen’s “convening power”. He likes to assemble gatherings of high-powered minds in locations around the world. One such meeting – with about 15 political, policy and business leaders – occurred several years ago in Beijing. As Schmidt recalls: “President Xi showed up. Shocking. How did Nicolas pull it off? He partnered with a Chinese think-tank, and the Chinese group and Nicolas’s team convinced President Xi that our group represented a fine set of western intellectuals. We had a good meeting. [Berggruen] clearly knew Xi quite well. He has more access than you think he does because he doesn’t boast. He’s not a showman. He doesn’t give big speeches, make shit up, like others. He is very rigorous in the way he thinks. He’s a genuine European intellectual.”

“I’ve always loved his passion for ideas,” adds Huffington. “A lot of think-tanks focus on geopolitics and foreign affairs. His interests are much broader and more philosophical. He has a really deep interest in the big questions about life, and he’s been ahead of the curve in focusing on many issues, such as AI.” 

Venice is central to Berggruen’s vision for the institute. While a 450-acre campus of residences for thinkers and scholars is scheduled for development in California’s Santa Monica mountains, (obtaining the construction approvals and permits has been “torturous”, says Berggruen), and there’s a satellite branch of the institute in Beijing, at Peking University (“From the beginning, we felt we shouldn’t just do all these things in a western way”), Venice is somewhere “more neutral” to establish a centre for the institute. “It’s like a meta city,” says Berggruen. “It attracts people from all over the world” – including, of course, a steady stream from the US. “We think there are a lot of good thinkers in Europe, but not always a lot of great doers,” he says of his both-worlds location. “In America, there are a lot of great doers... not so many thinkers.”

The first of his three Venetian properties is on the Giudecca: the neo-gothic Casa dei Tre Oci, built in 1913. Slated to host global summits and symposia, as well as provide residences for philosophers and thinkers, it is also a gallery, which debuted with a show of works by Picasso, Matisse and other masters collected by Berggruen’s father. 

In Cannaregio, Berggruen is transforming the baroque-style 18th-century Palazzo Diedo into a major space dedicated to contemporary art. The launch party he just hosted during vernissage – arguably the Biennale week’s buzziest event – unveiled the partially renovated building and its inaugural exhibitions, including 11 site-specific commissions by artists including Urs Fischer, Carsten Höller and Lee Ufan. More than 2,000 giovani crammed into the palazzo. “The city needs to have a bit of, you know, energy,” Berggruen explains. The evening must have been successful: at around midnight, Venetian police arrived to shut it down. 

The other jewel in Berggruen’s Venetian crown is, of course, Malipiero, which will serve as a residence as well as a space for special events. Given its history as a one-time home to Casanova, Berggruen has a lot to live up to, as I joked to him last winter. “Hope just as much fun – without the troubles…” he replied. 

As to being seen as a contemporary Medici, “there couldn’t be a higher compliment”, he says. “Not only did they have vision, they had courage. They got things done.”

Today, the slim 62-year-old is a solo father of eight-year-olds, Olympia and Alexander, conceived through one egg donor and born to two surrogates three weeks apart. “It’s been a blessing... the most extraordinary experience,” he says about parenthood. “It’s a joy to be with them. It changes one – as a person and as a biological agent. Suddenly, there is something greater than you.”

In addition to his Venetian holdings and two villas in Saint-Tropez, he has properties in the Los Angeles area, including an estate in Beverly Hills that once belonged to William Randolph Hearst and his mistress, Marion Davies (bought for $63.1mn) and a mansion in Holmby Hills where Louis B Mayer’s daughter Edie Goetz long reigned ($42mn). He also owns several apartments in the Sierra Towers, a celebrity-filled building in West Hollywood. But Venice holds special promise. With Casa dei Tre Oci as a hub for philosophical debate and Palazzo Diedo the place “to expand the arts and culture”, Palazzo Malipiero is more of a blank canvas. “First, it needs to be restored. But delicately. It’s so beautiful. The envelope is so good. You want to honour that and not do so much. You want to have a very light touch,” says Berggruen.

After it is restored, Palazzo Malipiero will be a family home once again, with rooms for Berggruen’s children. Still, he tiptoes around calling Malipiero his house: “We’ll organise it so one can stay there” is how he phrases it. He is keener to talk about how he will make it available for events – such as Sebastian, an eight-hour performance work by Miles Greenberg, described as “a futuristic study of martyrdom” and a highlight of the Biennale’s opening week. “Oh my God. People were transfixed. It was very emotional. I was mesmerised.” 

“The kids have anchored him,” says Reid Hoffman. “Like, now, he has homes.” Homes? “Bourgeois, boring,” Berggruen jokes when I bring up the concept. “You know, sometimes it’s more comfortable to stay in a hotel.” Once a homeless billionaire…