>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • AEHR +13.4%, FAST +4.3%, WFC +3.2%, BLK +1.8%, JPM +1.1%
Other news:
  • AGBA +29.1% (AGBA Group Holding and Triller announce that all steps have been finalized to move towards the completion of their merger, which is anticipated to take place on or about October 14, 2024, subject to final Nasdaq approval)
  • UBER +5.5% (following TSLA Robotaxi event)
  • ATHE +3.1% (announced promising new data related to ATH434 were presented)
  • AA +2.9% (Emirates Global mineral exports were blocked in Guinea, according to Bloomberg)
  • CLOV +2.8% (C.M.S. releases 2025 Medicare Advantage and Part D Star Ratings)
  • LYFT +2.8% (following TSLA Robotaxi event)
  • IMTX +2.7% (prices offering of 16.25 mln shares of common stock $9.25 per share)
  • LFCR +2.3% (stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • CENX +2.1% (Emirates Global mineral exports were blocked in Guinea, according to Bloomberg)
  • NWN +1.9% (increases dividend) SGMT +1.7% (Publication of Results from Phase 2b FASCINATE-2 Clinical Trial of Denifanstat in Biopsy-Confirmed F2/F3 MASH in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology)
  • AUPH +1.7% (Presents New Data Highlighting Real-World Utilization and Value of LUPKYNIS in Treating Lupus Nephritis at American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2024)
  • SGMT +1.7% (Publication of Results from Phase 2b FASCINATE-2 Clinical Trial of Denifanstat in Biopsy-Confirmed F2/F3 MASH in The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology)
  • SATS +1.5% (Announces Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025 and 3.375% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 Issued by DISH Network Corporation)
  • BAC +1.5% (10% owner Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.A / BRK.B) Warren Buffett sold another 9,549,933 shares at $39.74 - $40.38 worth approx. $382.4 mln)
  • LECO +1.1% (Executive Chair to retire)
  • SUPN +1% (to Host Webcast to Review Open-Label Phase 2a Study of SPN-820 for the Treatment of Major Depressive Disorder)

TechCrunch : UK neobank Monzo hits $5.9B valuation with secondary market sale

UK neobank Monzo hits $5.9B valuation with secondary market sale

Monzo is now valued at $5.9 billion after the U.K.-based challenger bank confirmed a secondary market share sale to provide liquidity for its employees.

The transaction, first rumored yesterday, saw existing investors such as Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund (GIC) and StepStone Group procuring additional shares in the London-based fintech.

A secondary market sale essentially rewards employees for getting a company to where it is, without having to go public — or, at least, buying it more time.

It has been an action-packed year for Monzo. The company raised $190 million in May, just two months after kicking off a $425 million Series I round that saw Alphabet’s CapitalG and sister VC firm GV making a rare co-investment. The startup has now raised around $1.5 billion since its foundation nine years ago.

At the time of its March fundraise, Monzo said its pre-money valuation was £3.6 billion ($4.6 billion), implying a post-money valuation of £4 billion ($5 billion) — this valuation rose slightly with the second tranche that followed in May. The following month, Monzo reported its first full-year (pre-tax) profit, with its revenues more than doubling from the previous year. The company claims 20% of U.K. adults as customers as well as 6% of businesses in the country.

This growth, coupled with a roadmap that includes a wider European expansion and plans to accelerate its rollout in the U.S market where it appointed a new CEO last October, has clearly been deemed sufficient for a valuation bump in the past five months.

Rival U.K. neobank Revolut recently confirmed a new valuation of $45 billion via a similar secondary market sale, shortly after securing its own banking license in the U.K. and Mexico.

“It’s great to be able to provide employees with some liquidity, while meeting further investor demand for Monzo equity,” Monzo CEO TS Anil said in a statement.

>>> Wells Fargo beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line

Wells Fargo beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $1.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.14 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.28; revenues fell 2.4% year/year to $20.37 bln vs the $20.4 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Net interest income decreased 11%, due to higher funding costs reflecting customer migration to higher yielding deposit products, and deposit mix and pricing changes, including increased pricing on sweep deposits in advisory brokerage accounts, as well as lower loan balances, partially offset by higher yields on earning assets.
  • Provision for credit losses in third quarter 2024 included a modest decrease in the allowance for credit losses, reflecting lower allowances across most loan portfolios, partially offset by a higher allowance for credit card loans driven by an increase in balances Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf commented, "We had solid results in the third quarter with both net income and diluted earnings per share up from the second quarter. Our earnings profile is very different than it was five years ago as we have been making strategic investments in many of our businesses and de-emphasizing or selling others. Our revenue sources are more diverse and fee-based revenue grew 16% during the first nine months of the year, largely offsetting net interest income headwinds. We have maintained strong credit discipline and driven significant operating efficiencies in the company while investing heavily to build a risk and control environment appropriate for a bank of our size and complexity. While we believe there are significant benefits still to come from our investments, it is gratifying to see our actions having an impact on our business metrics and financial results."
  • Guidance: Q4 net interest income is roughly expected to be in line with Q3; reaffirms FY24 non-interest expense guidance of $54 bln.

>>> JPMorgan Chase beats by $0.38, beats on revs

JPMorgan Chase beats by $0.38, beats on revs
  • Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $4.37 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.38 better than the FactSet Consensus of $3.99; revenues rose 6.5% year/year to $43.31 bln vs the $41.43 bln FactSet Consensus.
  • Average loans up 1% YoY and QoQ; average deposits up 1% YoY and QoQ
  • The provision for credit losses was $3.1 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $2.1 billion and a net reserve build of $1.0 billion. Net charge-offs of $2.1 billion were up $590 million, predominantly driven by Card Services. The net reserve build included $882 million in Consumer, primarily in Card Services, and $144 million in Wholesale. The prior-year provision was $1.4 billion, reflecting net charge-offs of $1.5 billion and a net reserve release of $113 million. Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO, commented: "The Firm reported strong underlying business and financial results in the third quarter, generating net income of $12.9 billion and an ROTCE of 19%. In the CIB, investment banking fees grew 31%, while Markets revenue was resilient, rising 8%. Payments fees grew by double-digits as investments are fueling organic growth. In CCB, we ranked #1 in U.S. retail deposits for the fourth consecutive year. Card loans increased 11%, and we saw robust acquisition of 2.5 million accounts. Finally, in AWM, asset management fees rose 15%, and long-term net inflows were a record $72 billion." Dimon added: "We await our regulators' new rules on the Basel III endgame and the G-SIB surcharge as well as any adjustments to the SCB or CCAR. We believe rules can be written that promote a strong financial system without causing undue consequences for the economy, and now is an excellent time to step back and review the extensive set of existing rules -- which were put in place for a good reason -- to understand their impact on economic growth, the viability of both public and private markets, and secondary market liquidity. Regardless of the outcome of these rules, we have an extraordinarily strong balance sheet, evidenced by total loss-absorbing capacity of $544 billion plus cash and marketable securities of $1.5 trillion, while our riskiest assets, loans, total $1.3 trillion. On share repurchases, given that market levels are at least slightly inflated, we maintain our modest pace of buybacks, although we reserve the right to adjust this at any time."
  • Guidance: Expect FY2024 net interest income of ~$91B, market dependent. Expect FY2024 net interest income excluding Markets of ~$91B, market dependent. Expect FY2024 adjusted expense of ~$92B, market dependent.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of October 2024 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ADP Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 150 euros
* Athens Intnl Airport Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Barratt Redrow PLC Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 540 pence (+)
* BPER Banca Raised to Buy at Equita; PT 7.60 euros (++)
* Crest Nicholson Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 215 pence (+)
* Givaudan PT Raised to 4,950 Swiss francs at Bank Vontobel (+)
* GVS Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 7 euros
* Italgas Raised to Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 6.30 euros
* Siemens Energy Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 32.80 euros
* Troax Raised to Buy at Carnegie (++)

>>> Down
* Aena Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 213 euros
* ArcelorMittal Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 21 euros
* BASF Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 52 euros
* Ceres Power Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 296 pence
* Credit Agricole Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 15.50 euros
* General Motors Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT $49 (+)
* Lanxess Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan (+)
* M6 Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 14 euros (++)
* Mersen Cut to Add at IDMidcaps; PT 32 euros (+)
* Mobileye Cut to Neutral at Mizuho Securities on Growth Concerns
* PostNL Cut to Hold at ING; PT 1.20 euros
* Repsol Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 13.10 euros
* Revenio Cut to Sell at Nordea; PT 28.50 euros
* Salzgitter Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 11.50 euros
* Thales Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 165 euros
* Trifork Group Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 105 kroner
* Vistry Group Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 970 pence
* Vistry Group Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 950 pence (+)
* Walgreens Boots PT Cut to $7 from $9 at Morgan Stanley

>>> Initiation
* Alphabet Rated New Sector Outperform at Scotiabank
* CTS Eventim Rated New Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 114 euros (+)
* Meta Platforms Rated New Sector Perform at Scotiabank
* Spar Nord Rated New Buy at Carnegie; PT 146 kroner (++)

>>> Call
* Tax Hike Is Negative Signal for French Equities: Oddo BHF (++)
* ADP Raised, Aena Cut as JPMorgan Switches Top Pick in Airports (++)
* CAB Payments Could See Re-Rating After StoneX Offer: Peel Hunt (+)
* Goldman’s Hammond Sees Earnings Driving AI Infrastructure Stocks (+)
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says ‘It’s a Great Stock-Picking Market’
* Revenio Drops as Nordea Cuts View to Sell on Poor Risk/Reward (++)
* Stellantis Management Changes Add Further Uncertanty, RBC Says
* Thales Downgraded at Berenberg on Challenges in Space Unit

>>> Valneva SE to host investor day today in New York City to discuss the Compan

Valneva SE to host investor day today in New York City to discuss the Company’s key value drivers over the next 12-18 months and beyond (5.69)
Valneva's Chief Executive Officer Thomas Lingelbach, Chief Financial Officer Peter Bühler, and other members of the Company's senior leadership team will highlight the Company's substantial opportunity for its Lyme disease vaccine candidate led by partner Pfizer (PFE), Valneva's growing commercial vaccine business, and opportunities for continued value creation from the Company's promising R&D pipeline. Valneva will highlight the following:
  • VLA15, its vaccine candidate against Lyme disease, which is currently fully enrolled with primary vaccination series completed in the pivotal Phase 3 study led by Pfizer
  • The Company's revenue-generating commercial portfolio of traveler's vaccines, including the ongoing launches of IXCHIQ against chikungunya virus
  • The Company's clinical and preclinical R&D pipeline, which includes ongoing clinical development for IXCHIQ (Phase 4 and other studies), SV4 against Shigella in Phase 2, and VLA1601 against
  • Zika virus in Phase 1. Valneva will also discuss further R&D pipeline development and selected current lead targets.
  • There will also be a brief financial overview highlighting 2024 and mid-term guidance.

FT : Stefano Cantino, the Gucci executive with the hardest job in luxury

Stefano Cantino, the Gucci executive with the hardest job in luxury
Former Vuitton and Prada executive must execute a turnaround of the struggling Gucci brand

Weeks after joining Gucci as deputy chief executive in May, Stefano Cantino rubbed shoulders with stars and owner Kering’s top brass as the Italian brand took over London’s Tate Modern to stage its lavish runway show.

But the spectacle and huge after-party — where Kering executives mingled with guests and supermodel Kate Moss draped herself over Mark Ronson’s DJ booth — barely masked the difficulties ailing Gucci is facing.

When Kering this week announced its decision to promote Cantino to chief executive of the French luxury conglomerate’s biggest brand and profit centre, they were counting on his five-year stint at LVMH’s Louis Vuitton and two decades at Prada to lead the Florentine house out of decline.

It is a tall order. Cantino is now charged with executing the biggest and most complex turnaround in the sector at a time when global appetite for high-priced handbags and fashion is ebbing and growth engine China is faltering.

“Stefano Cantino becoming chief executive doesn’t surprise me, this was the plan from day one,” said Thomas Chauvet at Citigroup, although he added that the degree of downturn in the market and pressure on Gucci may have increased the urgency.

“I don’t expect a revolution . . . He will have to work on making sure what has been done in the past 18 months” under predecessor Jean-François Palus “materialises into numbers”.

Gucci is in urgent need of revival.

Kering this year issued several profit warnings, a rarity among big luxury groups, because of cratering sales at the brand, and has alerted investors that it expects group operating income in the second half of this year to be 30 per cent lower than the same period in 2023.

Barclays expects Gucci sales to be down 23 per cent in the third quarter against a year earlier.

Born in Turin, Cantino studied political science at the city’s university before joining Prada. During two decades at the luxury group, where he rose to lead communications and marketing, he worked closely with Francesca Bellettini, now deputy CEO of Kering.

They stayed in touch after he left in 2018 to join Louis Vuitton, which at the time was undergoing rapid growth under chief executive Michael Burke, becoming the first luxury brand to crack €20bn in annual sales.

The 57-year-old takes the lead at Gucci at a time of flux, with new designer Sabato de Sarno less than two years and six collections into the role following the departure of former star designer Alessandro Michele.

Cantino replaces Jean-François Palus, a three-decade Kering veteran who was appointed interim Gucci CEO in July 2023 and is a close associate of group chief executive François-Henri Pinault.

While that interim role was made permanent in February, people with knowledge of the situation said the plan was always to have a fairly rapid transition.

Palus’s goals were “to assess the Gucci situation, bring efficiency and search for the CEO . . . We identified Stefano very fast,” said one person close to Kering.

Cantino “combines together exactly what we need at Gucci, because Gucci is a company with two souls: the soul of heritage and the soul of fashion”, the person added. “Having been at Prada and Louis Vuitton, he combines both — that double experience is very precious to us.”

Since arriving at Gucci, Cantino — who is described as direct, exacting and analytical by people who have worked with him but also as charming and well-connected in the fashion world — has been working closely with De Sarno, including on the brand’s splashy new campaign featuring rock star Debbie Harry of Blondie while working with the Gucci teams on improving product lines and mix.

In addition to contending with a slowing global luxury market, Gucci is also working to reimagine its aesthetic and image several years after Michele’s maximalist vision — which catapulted the brand to huge success for some time — stopped selling well.

Kering hopes that De Sarno’s sleeker, more pared down style will help it achieve its strategy of elevating the brand and making it more timeless so it will be less vulnerable to trend cycles. But it is still not clear whether Gucci’s customers will buy in.

While Cantino’s background centred on image and communications strategy might raise some concerns about his experience with operations, people close to Kering say he has the skills they need.

At Prada, he worked not only on brand positioning — a key challenge facing Gucci — and communications but also on strategy and acquisitions, including its 1999 deal to buy British shoemaker Church’s.

Within Kering, executives watched closely as their rival Louis Vuitton appointed the late visionary streetwear designer Virgil Abloh, then musician and producer Pharrell Williams to design menswear, providing big boosts to the brands and widening its audience during Cantino’s time there.

At Vuitton, “in terms of product architecture, he did a lot”, said the person close to Kering. “The turnaround [at Gucci] is not only about taking a listed company and turning it around, but it’s also turning around big areas within big organisations. This is where he is really good.”

This is not the first time Kering has had to reinvent Gucci, but the brand still has a long way to go.

“Changing brand perception through reduction of outlets [and] brand elevation does take time,” analysts at Barclays wrote, but “we think that Gucci’s recovery story could be delayed . . . Current expectations could be too ambitious, and [we] see risks of further earnings cuts.”

With Cantino set to take charge in January, “the full casting is now in place,” said Chauvet at Citi. “Now it’s all about execution.”

FT : European oil majors will not ape Equinor’s renewables opportunism

European oil majors will not ape Equinor’s renewables opportunism
Companies are struggling to establish a clear path in their energy transition strategies

Finding common threads in the European oil majors’ energy transition strategies is not easy.

There is still a somewhat experimental approach across the sector: Eni is building satellite businesses it can sell down, or possibly float. TotalEnergies is growing electricity generation and liquefied natural gas production. BP has pushed into areas such as EV charging — and is reportedly preparing to abandon its 2030 target to cut oil and gas output.

This week, Equinor added another move to the mix. It has built a 9.8 per cent stake in offshore wind developer Ørsted, becoming its second-largest shareholder behind the Danish government. It should prove a value-creating addition to the strategic sorting hat. But it is not something others will necessarily ape.

Equinor was a relatively early mover in offshore wind. It already has an operational portfolio of about 1GW, and 2GW under construction. In recent years, though, it has often been priced out of European auctions for seabed leases. It has cancelled some early-stage projects as the industry continues to grapple with higher costs.

Given its recent troubles in the US, Ørsted might not look the best of targets. But it has a decent portfolio of 10.4GW of operational renewables assets, plus more under construction. Even if you assumed Equinor paid 10 per cent of Ørsted’s roughly $25bn market capitalisation as of last Friday — the final trading day before the announcement — it looks as though Equinor is getting a decent discount to access a slice of those assets. The total net asset value of Ørsted’s portfolio is about $30bn, estimates Bank of America’s Christopher Kuplent.


Of course, investors may wonder why Equinor does not return more money and let them decide if they want exposure to a large renewables developer. That is an argument oil and gas CEOs will continue to have.

In its defence, Equinor can point to plenty of cash returns already. It has promised total distributions in 2024 of $14bn, including buybacks and dividends — equivalent to nearly a fifth of its market cap. The Ørsted deal should not alter future planned returns. Equinor can easily shoulder the estimated 5 per cent increase in its net debt ratio that Bernstein expects will follow the deal.

This is unlikely to start a frenzy of renewables stake buying across the industry, however. Not all have the same balance sheet strength. BP, for instance, has faced questions over whether it can meet its $7bn annual share buyback from 2025 onwards.

If Equinor’s latest move is suggestive of any theme, it’s that the European oil majors are still struggling to find a clear path to 2050.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • AEHR +13.7%, CLOV +5.1%, BLK +2.4%, TGI +2.3%, LFCR +2.3%, NWN +1.9%, ATHE +1.6%, IMTX +1.3%, LECO +1.1%, SUPN +1%, INSG +0.9%, EC +0.9%, LZB +0.8%, DKL +0.8%, CVS +0.8%, SILV +0.7%, QGEN +0.6%, ATR +0.5%, DRI +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • TSLA -5.7%, HUM -3.9%, STLA -3.6%, AORT -2.8%, ADC -1.8%, CNC -1.2%, MSM -1.2%, RDNT -0.9%

FT : BlackRock’s assets under management surge to record $11.5tn

BlackRock’s assets under management surge to record $11.5tn
World’s largest money manager benefited from a rebound in markets

BlackRock’s assets under management surged to a record $11.5tn, as the world’s largest money manager benefited from a rally in markets and attracted cash from investors.

Revenue rose 15 per cent to $5.2bn, surpassing analysts’ expectations, while improved margins lifted the group’s net income to $1.63bn.

Assets shot up 26 per cent in the quarter, powered by $160bn in long-term flows and an additional $61bn in new money to cash management products, as BlackRock benefited from investors preparing for interest rates cuts from the US Federal Reserve.

“Our strategy is ambitious, and our strategy is working,” chief executive Larry Fink said on Friday. “We are effectively leveraging our technology, scale, and global footprint to deliver profitable growth.”

BlackRock shares are up nearly 20 per cent this year, nearing a record high $971 set in November 2021. The shares were little changed in pre-market trading on Friday.

Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected revenue of $5bn. Adjusted operating income rose 26 per cent to $2.1bn, beating expectations of just under $2.0bn.