>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2024 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Aker Solutions Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 61 kroner
* Arcadium Lithium Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $5.85
* Beijer REF Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 190 kronor
* DiaSorin SpA Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 295 kronor
* Lithium Americas Raised to Outperform at National Bank
* Lufthansa Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.50 euros
* Ontex Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

>>> Down
* Aena Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 226 euros
* ASML Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 650 euros
* BBGI Global Infrastructure SA Raised to Buy at Stifel (+)
* Credito Emiliano Cut to Neutral at Banca Akros (+)
* DiaSorin SpA Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 105 euros
* Equasens Cut to Add at IDMidcaps; PT 55 euros (+)
* Eramet Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT 45 euros
* Givaudan Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 4,650 Swiss francs
* Jenoptik Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 26 euros
* Maersk Cut to Neutral at UBS (+)
* Montana Aerospace Cut to Market Perform at ZKB (+)
* Nel Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 4.30 kroner
* Novavax PT Cut to $25 from $31 at Jefferies
* Orkla Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Plus500 Cut to Hold at Canaccord; PT 2,650 pence '+)
* Qiagen Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 euros
* RS Group Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 200 kroner
* Uber Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $84

>>> Initiation
* AbbVie Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $203
* Amgen Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $380
* Bristol Myers Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $56
* Constellation Energy Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $342
* Eli Lilly Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $1,100
* Gilead Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $105
* Lonza Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 630 Swiss francs
* Merck & Co Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $115
* Moderna Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $55
* Pfizer Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $32
* Speedy Hire Reinstated Buy at Canaccord; PT 70 pence (+)
* Ventura Offshore Holding Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 45 kroner
* Wood Reinstated Overweight at JPMorgan (+)

>>> Call
* Endesa a Hold at Jefferies, Regulatory Upside Mainly Priced In
* Givaudan’s Earnings Growth Limited in 2025, Citi Downgrades
* Goldman’s Trading Desk Sees S&P 500 Reaching 6,270 by Year-End
* Buy DAX Strangles to Play SAP Earnings, JPMorgan Strategists Say
* Novonesis Cut at Citi, Growth Expectations Difficult to Achieve

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +5.9%
    • Sartorius 9M Adjusted Ebitda EU686.5M Vs. EU733.4M Y/y
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) +3.4%
    • Merck KGaA Trims Health Care And Life Sciences Targets, Eyes M&A
  • Banco BPM (BPM TH) +2.3%
  • Ipsos (IPZ TH) +2.1%
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.9%
  • ConvaTec (2CV TH) +1.1%
  • Verallia (1VRA TH) +1%
  • Endesa (ENA TH) -1.1%
    • Endesa Safeguards Margins Even as Prices Dip: Equity Outlook
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -1.3%
  • Novonesis (NZM2 TH) -1.3%
    • Novonesis Cut at Citi, Growth Expectations Difficult to Achieve
  • Nokia (NOA3 TH) -1.6%
    • Nokia Sales Miss Estimates as Turnaround Fails to Take Shape (1)
  • Pernod Ricard (PER TH) -2%
    • Pernod Ricard Sales Drop as China and US Weakness Persists
  • Maersk (DP4B TH) -2.4%

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +6.6%
    • Sartorius 9M Adjusted Ebitda EU686.5M Vs. EU733.4M Y/y
  • Merck KGaA (MRK TH) +3.2%
    • Merck KGaA Trims Health Care And Life Sciences Targets, Eyes M&A
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +1%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks as TSMC Beat Follows ASML Shock
  • Qiagen (QIA TH) -1%
    • Qiagen Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 euros
MDAX:
  • Aurubis (NDA TH) +1.1%
  • Aixtron (AIXA TH) +1.1%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks as TSMC Beat Follows ASML Shock
  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +0.9%
    • Lufthansa Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.50 euros
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) -0.5%
    • Jenoptik Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 26 euros
SDAX:
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.4%
  • RENK Group AG (R3NK TH) +1.3%
  • Nagarro SE (NA9 TH) -0.7%
    • Nagarro Confirms It’s in Talks on Potential Take-Private

FT : How Europe’s battery champion descended into crisis

How Europe’s battery champion descended into crisis
Insiders say Northvolt, Europe’s best-funded start-up, has been beset by problems from the start

Northvolt has been plagued by problems from incompetent management and poor safety standards to over-reliance on Chinese machinery, according to current and former workers at the cash-strapped Swedish battery maker.

Ten past and present workers of Europe’s best-funded start-up told the Financial Times its crisis had been caused by a litany of issues as it sought to do too much, too fast.

“Making batteries is hard, really hard. We tried to do almost everything at once,” said one former senior executive. “And the problems just kept piling up. I just don’t know if they can make it now.”

Founded in 2017 by two former Tesla executives and with backers including Volkswagen, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock and Siemens, Northvolt grew rapidly as it sought to become a European battery champion, with its workforce reaching 7,000 this year.

The project was meant to symbolise Europe’s comeback in a crucial technology but instead it is fighting for survival as it seeks fresh capital to continue operating, from investors reluctant to plough in much more.

The company is now at risk of turning into a tale of hubris, and of how Europe is failing to compete with big Chinese, American and other Asian rivals.

“The Chinese are being so fast on this,” said one former Northvolt chemical engineer. “They are established and they have already done it. So they’re just better. We are late to the party.”

Northvolt hired top battery-making talent from Japan and South Korea as it aimed to reduce European dependence on China by developing its own active material and finding new sources of raw materials.

Instead, employees describe a company reliant on machines — and the workers who operate them — from China and South Korea at its only factory in the northern Swedish town of Skellefteå.

One construction worker said there were hundreds of Chinese and Koreans in Skellefteå. “They stay in their own separate camp and come in every day to install and run the machines.”

The Chinese workers — especially from Wuxi Lead Intelligence, the world’s largest maker of battery manufacturing equipment — have stayed longer than anticipated, according to a former R&D engineer. They added that communication had been difficult, citing an incident when an alarm went off: “We didn’t hear it, so someone from Wuxi said we need to go out through Google Translate.”

All past and present Northvolt employees who spoke to the FT asked to remain anonymous, saying the company had told workers not to speak to the press.

Northvolt has pursued ambitious expansion projects despite its struggles in Skellefteå. It planned to nearly quadruple the size of the Skellefteå factory even as production languished at less than 1 per cent of capacity, and to build new gigafactories in Sweden, Germany and Canada, an active material plant and a recycling facility in Sweden, an energy storage business in Poland and an aircraft battery research unit in the US.

It has abandoned or suspended many of these projects in recent months, while executives hint that the new gigafactories are likely to be delayed. About a quarter of its Swedish workforce is to be fired.

“Even when we only had one or two projects in [Skellefteå] we could not meet output,” said the former R&D engineer. “Then they were talking about opening new factories. Shouldn’t we focus on getting the first one right? They bit off more than they could chew.”

Northvolt grew so fast in terms of employees and projects that processes were chaotic and management often incompetent, most of the workers said.

“I have never seen so many managers and directors unprepared to deal with the situation in public, and how to properly address their employees,” said a quality control worker. They added that Northvolt had “a lot of inexperienced workers in all areas — managers, engineers, production, technicians, even directors”.

A former data engineer said that despite joining “as an intern with no experience”, they had been given “massive responsibility because there was nobody else to do it . . . I was learning on the go, messing things up.”

They added that frequent restructurings meant “it felt very chaotic”, with “the goal . . . changing all the time”.

Northvolt became a darling of green investors, raking in ever larger amounts of capital including via a $2.8bn private placement in 2021, a $2.7bn convertible note in 2022 and a $5bn debt round this year backed by banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas.

Several employees said the strong financial support had led to questionable decisions.

“Managers didn’t listen carefully to engineers,” said the construction worker. “They only had one goal: deliver the project within a fixed timeframe. They didn’t care about the budget.”

Top managers “build a model, change it and demolish it”, they said. “It does not make sense to me. It makes sense to management because they think they have a lot of money.”

A former material handler said there was a sense of creating products quickly to help raise money, describing the process as “this is going to get sent back but if we deliver it we will reach our goal and get the funding”.

BMW, a Northvolt shareholder, was the first customer to sound the alarm, pulling a $2bn contract this year and giving it to South Korea’s Samsung.

“I see a lot of defective products,” said the quality control worker. “For that reason, our average yield is low.”

Northvolt has also suffered from safety problems. Swedish environmental prosecutors told the FT last month that the company would soon be served an investigation notice on suspicion of gross manslaughter after a worker’s death in December from injuries sustained the previous month in an explosion on a production line.

Northvolt has said it is in contact with prosecutors and police but declined to comment further.

A construction contractor died late last year at the Skellefteå site. Police are also investigating three deaths this year of Northvolt workers in unexplained circumstances away from the factory, although the company insists there is nothing to link them.

The former material handler said there was “a very big lack of safety thinking” at the company. “We were sent into areas with open containers of dangerous materials and with no proper safety equipment . . . There’s a part of me that is genuinely concerned if I’ve been contaminated with something that could make me sick.”

Since 2021 Northvolt has been involved in 47 workplace accidents involving chemicals classified as particularly dangerous by Sweden’s work environment authority, according to public broadcaster SVT. “They have not understood the meaning of removing risks,” Mikael Stenmark, a union safety representative at Northvolt, told SVT.

Northvolt told the FT that it “has to meet highest safety standards by law, and safety is key when operating battery cell factories”, adding that it lost a similar amount of time to injury as other Swedish industrial companies, and that it was improving in this area.

On the role of Wuxi’s equipment, Northvolt co-founder and chief executive Peter Carlsson last month acknowledged there had been “challenges when we have ramped up and how we are working together”. The Chinese company had not “built a service organisation” or “worked with a European customer before”, he told the FT.

He added that the commitment from Wuxi workers “on site is super strong”, and that production in Skellefteå had quadrupled since the start of the year, albeit from a low base.

Wuxi said it had a “strong track record of delivering reliable, high-performing equipment” worldwide, and that the presence of its personnel was “standard industry practice” to ensure “optimal” operation during the “installation and ramp-up phases”.

It acknowledged there were “challenges” with a multilingual workforce collaborating on a complex project but said it “continuously invest[ed] in solutions to bridge any gaps”.


Northvolt said it had “always underlined that building up a European battery cell landscape is one of the most complex tasks in industry today”.

It stressed that as “the most advanced European battery manufacturer” it was “pioneering in all different fields at the same time”. It said a recent strategic review would “further increase focus on cell production”, and that it had strengthened its management team. “We clearly see positive developments, and will continue to improve,” it added.

Northvolt is now fighting for its life. After struggling to raise billions in fresh equity it has scaled back its demand in recent weeks to about €200mn, according to Swedish and other news reports, in a push that has taken on added urgency as it deals with jittery investors. A subsidiary that was meant to build out the Skellefteå factory, Northvolt Ett Expansion, declared bankruptcy last week.

The business backdrop is also bleak. Electric vehicle sales in Europe have slowed and manufacturers including Volvo Cars and VW have scaled back their ambitions, something insiders say is not helping it convince investors.

“You had these Swedes . . . selling what they called the greenest batteries on earth, using this fact they had cheap hydropower as a massive selling point,” said one large European automotive shareholder, who is not invested in Northvolt. “But it never made sense to build it in Sweden. They don’t have the people, the skills, and they got too much money, too fast, and wanted to do everything at once. It was always going to be a disaster.”

A person close to Northvolt said the problems at Skellefteå were typical for a new factory, but that unlike large industrial groups the Swedish start-up lacked a wider organisation to fall back on for experience and revenues.

“The biggest challenge in industry,” the person added, “is a new plant, new people, new processes, new product . . . And we had all four together.”

FT : China is turning Japanese

China is turning Japanese
At least that’s what the bond market is whispering

The “Japanification” of China continues to be a big theme, with a lot of eerie parallels right down to stimulus proving wanting. Here’s the latest symptom:


Yep, the 30-year government bond yields of China and Japan are on the cusp of crossing paths for the first time (ever, we think, but LSEG data for both 30-year benchmarks doesn’t go further back than 2009).

At pixel time there’s still a 8.7 basis point spread between the two long-term bond yields, with the Chinese 30-year yielding 2.245 and the Japanese 30s trading at 2.158 per cent. But it looks like that won’t last long. Shorting Chinese government bonds really has been the new widow-maker trade.

The fading yield curve differential is another stark manifestation of China’s growing economic and demographic malaise, and Japan’s (for now) success in finally winning a three-decade battle against deflation. As Barclays economists said in a big report on whether China can escape a similar fate:

China’s accelerated economic development was reminiscent of Japan’s postwar economic miracle. Moreover, China was in certain quarters once expected to overtake the US as the world’s largest economy by 2035.

However, after decades of rapidly narrowing the gap to the US, since 2022 China has started losing ground. Surpassing the US economy now appears a distant hope; its weakening labour market, declining firm profitability, slumping housing activity, and adverse debt-deflation dynamics have raised concerns about China’s longer-term growth outlook.

. . . We think China’s deleveraging journey has only just started, and it is unlikely to be completed before 2030, which implies the structural headwinds to consumption and investment will persist.

It should be noted that there’s still a decent-sized if narrowing gap between China and Japan on the 10-year part of the curve. But on the even longer end of the curve, yields have already crossed, with the Japanese government bond maturing in March 2064 currently yielding 2.472 per cent, and China’s November 2064 bond trading at 2.275 per cent.

The parallels between Japan in the early 1990s and China today are myriad, Barclays noted in its report. FT Alphaville’s emphasis below:

The economic circumstances facing China have parallels with Japan’s experience after its asset bubble burst in the early 1990s. This created the term ‘Japanification’, which is typically defined as a combination of slow growth, low inflation, and a low policy rate, accompanied by deteriorating demographic trends.

To measure this phenomena, a Japanese economist, Takatoshi Ito, introduced a Japanification Index, which measured the sum of the inflation rate, nominal policy rate, and GDP gap. To apply to China’s economy, we have adjusted this index, replacing the GDP gap with working-age population growth, as the estimation methods of GDP gaps differ across nations and working-age population is by far the most fundamental determinant for long-term growth. Our amended index shows that China’s economy has become more ‘Japanised’ than Japan’s recently, albeit marginally.

This not a surprise to us. A demographic drag, the emergence and collapse of asset bubbles, debt overhang, zombie companies, deflationary pressures from excess capacity/high debt, and high youth unemployment, to name a few, are some of the notable similarities between the economies of China and Japan post their bubbles.

And here’s that index.

>>> What to look at today - 17th of October 2024

European stocks look set for a tepid start as traders await a European Central Bank monetary policy decision. A Chinese share rally fizzled after a press briefing on the property market failed to deliver major stimulus.      Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed while US equity contracts fell in Asian trading. China’s CSI 300 erased a rally of as much as 1.3% after officials said the government will expand a program to support “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from about 2.23 trillion yuan already deployed. The negative market reaction shows investors have set an increasingly high bar for stimulus optimism. The ECB is forecast to lower interest rates for a second straight meeting Thursday after data showed slowing inflation is being accompanied by a worsening economy. Nestle SA, Nordea Bank Abp and Nokia Oyj are among companies that have announced earnings Thursday.  The challenge for China investors “right now is that we don’t have a big enough package to get people excited,” Jun Bei Liu, a fund manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, said on Bloomberg Television. “The Chinese economy is sitting at the bottom, but to reignite the growth, they really need to reignite confidence.” Elsewhere in Asia, stock benchmarks declined in Japan and South Korea, and rose in Australia. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The data eased concerns over the chip sector after ASML Holding NV offered surprisingly dour order numbers and cut its 2025 revenue forecast earlier this week. In European earnings, Nestle guided for a lower-than-expected organic revenue growth of 2% for the full-year, while Nordea Bank met estimate for its net interest income. Nokia Oyj sales failed to meet analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, as a recovery takes shape slower than previously expected. Chinese data due Friday will show the world’s second-biggest economy expanded 4.5% in the third quarter from a year ago, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would mark its weakest pace in six quarters.  Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on government officials to make every effort to help the country meet its annual growth target of around 5%. However, after a series of press conferences this month in which policymakers offered no details of fresh stimulus, fears are now mounting that efforts may not be enough to revive growth. China’s fading rally coupled with a selloff in technology companies is souring the outlook for Asian markets. The region’s MSCI equity index is still on course for its best year since 2020, but with traders expecting the Federal Reserve to set back interest-rate cuts and earnings slowing in markets such as India and Korea, risk sentiment needs fresh triggers to sustain momentum. The Treasury 10-year yield climbed two basis points in Asian trade to 4.03%, and the Bloomberg dollar index was little changed. Australia’s dollar gained after the country’s unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, lower than the forecast of 4.2% in a Bloomberg survey.  Gains for US small-caps on Wednesday indicated investors are shifting out of the world’s largest tech companies that have soared on the back of the artificial intelligence boom and into other stocks that benefit in benign economic conditions. Oil climbed, after four days of declines, as traders weighed potential risks to production from the Middle East against concerns over a global glut. Bitcoin fell after rising 1.7% Wednesday to touch the highest level since July. Iron ore tumbled to a three-week low, a sign that investors doubt whether China’s latest moves to shore up the property market will do enough to boost construction activity and steel demand. US After Hours AA +8.8%, SNV +3.1%, STLD +2.8% higher on earnings; EFX -4.6%, CSX -4.3%, KMI -2.6%, DFS -1.2% lower on earnings; GEVO +45.8% and CLMT +18.6% higher on Dept of Energy awards.

Nikkei -0.12% Hang Seng +0.36% CSI -0.07% Shanghai -0.05% Shenzen +0.55%

Eur$ 1.0854 CNH 7.1346 CNY 7.1213 JPY 149.52 GBP 1.2987 CHF 0.8662 RUB 97.5023 TRY 34.1860 WTI$ 70.57 +0.26% Gold 2,684 +0.37% BTC 67,324 -0.44% ETH 2,626.6 +0.33%

S&P -0.10% Nasdaq -0.04% EuroStoxx +0.04% FTSE +0.24% Dax +0.04% SMI -0.39%


Macro :
- Trump Gets 50% Nationally, Harris Gets 48%: Fox News Poll
- Bitcoin Pulls Ahead in Markets in Sign of Bets on Trump Victory
- Druckenmiller Says Market Is ‘Very Convinced’ Trump Will Win
- Goldman’s Trading Desk Sees S&P 500 Reaching 6,270 by Year-End
- US AIRLINES INDEX POSTS BEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 2022, UP 6.5%
- McKinsey to Pay at Least $500 Million in DOJ Opioid Probe (1)
- Buy DAX Strangles to Play SAP Earnings, JPMorgan Strategists Say
- JPMorgan Wraps Up $1 Billion Debt-Swap Deal for El Salvador
- Switzerland Sept. Watch Exports Fell 12.4% Y/Y

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB Sees FY Op. Ebita Margin Above 18%, Saw About 18%, Est. 18%
- ADP FP : ADP Sept. Passenger Traffic +5.5%
- AA US : Alcoa Shares Rise as Adjusted Ebitda Beats Street Estimates
- AAL LN : BHP Chief Met With South Africa Officials, PIC Last Week: FT
- MT NA : Alcoa Shares Rise as Adjusted Ebitda Beats Street Estimates
- APAM NA : Aperam to Buy Universal Stainless for $45/Share in All-Cash Deal
- AAPL US : Apple Secretly Worked With China’s BYD on Long-Range EV Battery
- ARJOB SS : Arjo 3Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- ASML NA : ASML Questioned by Dutch Regulator After Results Release Mistake
- BIOAB SS : BioArctic Drops After Australia’s TGA Turns Down Leqembi Drug
- BA US : Boeing Close on Plan to Raise $15B Via Stock, Hybrid Bonds: Rtrs
- CHEMM DC : ChemoMetec Jumps on Revenue Forecast Boost, Ovizio Binding Offer
- ROO LN : Deliveroo 3Q Gross Transaction Value Misses Estimates
- ENTRA NO : Entra 3Q Net Operating Income Meets Estimates
- EQT SS : EQT 3Q Total Investments EU6B Vs. EU2B Y/y
- EQT SS : Temasek to Buy 17%-18% Stake in VFS Global for $950m: Mint
- EXPE US : Uber Has Explored Possible Bid for Expedia: FT
- GFC FP : Gecina FY Recurrent Net per Share Forecast Beats Estimates
- GET FP : Getlink 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- GEVO US : Gevo Secures Conditional Commitment from U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office for its Net-Zero 1 Sustainable Aviation +15% in after Hours
- GS US : Goldman Sachs Unit in Talks to Join Northvolt Rescue Effort
- HNSA SS : Hansa Biopharma 3Q Net Loss SEK103.8M, Est. Loss SEK262.5M
- KINDSDB SS : Kindred Prelim 3Q Gross Winnings Revenue GBP283.1M
- EMG LN : Man Group 3Q Net Outflows $5.5B Vs. Inflows $700M Y/y
- MRK GY : Merck KGaA Trims Health Care And Life Sciences Targets, Eyes M&A
- META US : Meta criticised for calling its AI models ‘open-source’
- NA9 GY : Nagarro Confirms It’s in Talks on Potential Take-Private
- NESN SW : Nestle FY Organic Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates (1)
- NESN SW : Nestlé announces changes to its organization and its Executive Board
- NKE US : NIKE ticks lower following report it's ready for a global push for its outdoor business, All Conditions Gear, according to Bloomberg
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Sales Miss Estimates as Turnaround Fails to Materialize
- NDA FH : Nordea Raises 2024 Outlook and Unveils More Share Buybacks
- NVDA US : DRUCKENMILLER: SELLING ALL MY NVIDIA STOCK WAS 'A BIG MISTAKE'
- NVAX US : Novavax Shares Slump After FDA Hold on Covid-Flu Shot Candidates
- OKLO US : Google Says Nuclear Is Key to Around-the-Clock Clean Power
- RI FP : Pernod Ricard 1Q Organic Sales Misses Estimates
- PST IM : Poste Italiane Placing Postponed to November: Sole
- PCELL SS : PowerCell 3Q Sales SEK71.9M Vs. SEK69.9M Y/y
- PUB FP : Publicis 3Q Organic Revenue Beats Estimates
- RBI AV : UniCredit, Raiffeisen See Fading Options to Get Out of Russia
- RTO LN : Rentokil 3Q North America Revenue Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Invests €300M for 16% in New Entity Under Orano Med Brand
- DIM FP : Sartorius Stedim 9M Underlying Ebitda EU564.7M Vs. EU594.0M Y/y
- SRT GY : Sartorius 9M Adjusted Ebitda EU686.5M Vs. EU733.4M Y/y
- SU FP : Schneider Electric to Buy 75% of Motivair for $850M:M&A Snapshot
- SCHP SW : Schindler 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- SCHP SW : Schindler Plans Up to CHF500M Share Buyback Program
- SES IM : Sesa Drops as CEO of Partner Firm Digital Value Investigated
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy: Kaeser seeks second term as Chairman of the Supervisory Board : Handelsblatt
- SIP BB : Sipef 9M Palm Oil Output 266,502 Metric Tons Vs. 292,880 Y/y
- SLIGR NA : Sligro 3Q Sales EU730M Vs. EU705M Y/y
- STERV FH : Stora Enso CEO Says Efforts on Cash Flow Went ‘Too Far’: DI
- TLGO SM : Talgo Receives Takeover Interest From Sidenor Group
- TIETO FH : TietoEVRY Sees FY Organic Revenue -2%, Saw 0% to +3%
- 2330 TT : TSMC’s Profit Beats Estimates During an AI Chip Boom (1)
- UBER US : Uber Has Explored Possible Bid for Expedia: FT
- UCG IM : UniCredit, Raiffeisen See Fading Options to Get Out of Russia
- UCG IM !: UniCredit Agrees to 1,000 Voluntary Layoffs, 500 Hires: Union
- USAP US : Aperam to Buy Universal Stainless for $45/Share in All-Cash Deal
- VACN SW : VAT 9M Net Sales CHF659.0M Vs. CHF663.5M Y/y

F

European stocks look set for a tepid start as traders await a European Central Bank monetary policy decision. A Chinese share rally fizzled after a press briefing on the property market failed to deliver major stimulus.      Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed while US equity contracts fell in Asian trading. China’s CSI 300 erased a rally of as much as 1.3% after officials said the government will expand a program to support “white list” projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) from about 2.23 trillion yuan already deployed. The negative market reaction shows investors have set an increasingly high bar for stimulus optimism. The ECB is forecast to lower interest rates for a second straight meeting Thursday after data showed slowing inflation is being accompanied by a worsening economy. Nestle SA, Nordea Bank Abp and Nokia Oyj are among companies that have announced earnings Thursday.  The challenge for China investors “right now is that we don’t have a big enough package to get people excited,” Jun Bei Liu, a fund manager at Tribeca Investment Partners, said on Bloomberg Television. “The Chinese economy is sitting at the bottom, but to reignite the growth, they really need to reignite confidence.” Elsewhere in Asia, stock benchmarks declined in Japan and South Korea, and rose in Australia. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported net income for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. The data eased concerns over the chip sector after ASML Holding NV offered surprisingly dour order numbers and cut its 2025 revenue forecast earlier this week. In European earnings, Nestle guided for a lower-than-expected organic revenue growth of 2% for the full-year, while Nordea Bank met estimate for its net interest income. Nokia Oyj sales failed to meet analysts’ estimates in the third quarter, as a recovery takes shape slower than previously expected. Chinese data due Friday will show the world’s second-biggest economy expanded 4.5% in the third quarter from a year ago, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would mark its weakest pace in six quarters.  Chinese President Xi Jinping has called on government officials to make every effort to help the country meet its annual growth target of around 5%. However, after a series of press conferences this month in which policymakers offered no details of fresh stimulus, fears are now mounting that efforts may not be enough to revive growth. China’s fading rally coupled with a selloff in technology companies is souring the outlook for Asian markets. The region’s MSCI equity index is still on course for its best year since 2020, but with traders expecting the Federal Reserve to set back interest-rate cuts and earnings slowing in markets such as India and Korea, risk sentiment needs fresh triggers to sustain momentum. The Treasury 10-year yield climbed two basis points in Asian trade to 4.03%, and the Bloomberg dollar index was little changed. Australia’s dollar gained after the country’s unemployment rate was 4.1% in September, lower than the forecast of 4.2% in a Bloomberg survey.  Gains for US small-caps on Wednesday indicated investors are shifting out of the world’s largest tech companies that have soared on the back of the artificial intelligence boom and into other stocks that benefit in benign economic conditions. Oil climbed, after four days of declines, as traders weighed potential risks to production from the Middle East against concerns over a global glut. Bitcoin fell after rising 1.7% Wednesday to touch the highest level since July. Iron ore tumbled to a three-week low, a sign that investors doubt whether China’s latest moves to shore up the property market will do enough to boost construction activity and steel demand. US After Hours AA +8.8%, SNV +3.1%, STLD +2.8% higher on earnings; EFX -4.6%, CSX -4.3%, KMI -2.6%, DFS -1.2% lower on earnings; GEVO +45.8% and CLMT +18.6% higher on Dept of Energy awards.

Nikkei -0.12% Hang Seng +0.36% CSI -0.07% Shanghai -0.05% Shenzen +0.55%

Eur$ 1.0854 CNH 7.1346 CNY 7.1213 JPY 149.52 GBP 1.2987 CHF 0.8662 RUB 97.5023 TRY 34.1860 WTI$ 70.57 +0.26% Gold 2,684 +0.37% BTC 67,324 -0.44% ETH 2,626.6 +0.33%

S&P -0.10% Nasdaq -0.04% EuroStoxx +0.04% FTSE +0.24% Dax +0.04% SMI -0.39%


Macro :
- Trump Gets 50% Nationally, Harris Gets 48%: Fox News Poll
- Bitcoin Pulls Ahead in Markets in Sign of Bets on Trump Victory
- Druckenmiller Says Market Is ‘Very Convinced’ Trump Will Win
- Goldman’s Trading Desk Sees S&P 500 Reaching 6,270 by Year-End
- US AIRLINES INDEX POSTS BEST DAY SINCE OCTOBER 2022, UP 6.5%
- McKinsey to Pay at Least $500 Million in DOJ Opioid Probe (1)
- Buy DAX Strangles to Play SAP Earnings, JPMorgan Strategists Say
- JPMorgan Wraps Up $1 Billion Debt-Swap Deal for El Salvador
- Switzerland Sept. Watch Exports Fell 12.4% Y/Y

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN SW : ABB Sees FY Op. Ebita Margin Above 18%, Saw About 18%, Est. 18%
- ADP FP : ADP Sept. Passenger Traffic +5.5%
- AA US : Alcoa Shares Rise as Adjusted Ebitda Beats Street Estimates
- AAL LN : BHP Chief Met With South Africa Officials, PIC Last Week: FT
- MT NA : Alcoa Shares Rise as Adjusted Ebitda Beats Street Estimates
- APAM NA : Aperam to Buy Universal Stainless for $45/Share in All-Cash Deal
- AAPL US : Apple Secretly Worked With China’s BYD on Long-Range EV Battery
- ARJOB SS : Arjo 3Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- ASML NA : ASML Questioned by Dutch Regulator After Results Release Mistake
- BIOAB SS : BioArctic Drops After Australia’s TGA Turns Down Leqembi Drug
- BA US : Boeing Close on Plan to Raise $15B Via Stock, Hybrid Bonds: Rtrs
- CHEMM DC : ChemoMetec Jumps on Revenue Forecast Boost, Ovizio Binding Offer
- ROO LN : Deliveroo 3Q Gross Transaction Value Misses Estimates
- ENTRA NO : Entra 3Q Net Operating Income Meets Estimates
- EQT SS : EQT 3Q Total Investments EU6B Vs. EU2B Y/y
- EQT SS : Temasek to Buy 17%-18% Stake in VFS Global for $950m: Mint
- EXPE US : Uber Has Explored Possible Bid for Expedia: FT
- GFC FP : Gecina FY Recurrent Net per Share Forecast Beats Estimates
- GET FP : Getlink 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- GEVO US : Gevo Secures Conditional Commitment from U.S. Department of Energy Loan Programs Office for its Net-Zero 1 Sustainable Aviation +15% in after Hours
- GS US : Goldman Sachs Unit in Talks to Join Northvolt Rescue Effort
- HNSA SS : Hansa Biopharma 3Q Net Loss SEK103.8M, Est. Loss SEK262.5M
- KINDSDB SS : Kindred Prelim 3Q Gross Winnings Revenue GBP283.1M
- EMG LN : Man Group 3Q Net Outflows $5.5B Vs. Inflows $700M Y/y
- MRK GY : Merck KGaA Trims Health Care And Life Sciences Targets, Eyes M&A
- META US : Meta criticised for calling its AI models ‘open-source’
- NA9 GY : Nagarro Confirms It’s in Talks on Potential Take-Private
- NESN SW : Nestle FY Organic Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates (1)
- NESN SW : Nestlé announces changes to its organization and its Executive Board
- NKE US : NIKE ticks lower following report it's ready for a global push for its outdoor business, All Conditions Gear, according to Bloomberg
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Sales Miss Estimates as Turnaround Fails to Materialize
- NDA FH : Nordea Raises 2024 Outlook and Unveils More Share Buybacks
- NVDA US : DRUCKENMILLER: SELLING ALL MY NVIDIA STOCK WAS 'A BIG MISTAKE'
- NVAX US : Novavax Shares Slump After FDA Hold on Covid-Flu Shot Candidates
- OKLO US : Google Says Nuclear Is Key to Around-the-Clock Clean Power
- RI FP : Pernod Ricard 1Q Organic Sales Misses Estimates
- PST IM : Poste Italiane Placing Postponed to November: Sole
- PCELL SS : PowerCell 3Q Sales SEK71.9M Vs. SEK69.9M Y/y
- PUB FP : Publicis 3Q Organic Revenue Beats Estimates
- RBI AV : UniCredit, Raiffeisen See Fading Options to Get Out of Russia
- RTO LN : Rentokil 3Q North America Revenue Beats Estimates
- SAN FP : Sanofi Invests €300M for 16% in New Entity Under Orano Med Brand
- DIM FP : Sartorius Stedim 9M Underlying Ebitda EU564.7M Vs. EU594.0M Y/y
- SRT GY : Sartorius 9M Adjusted Ebitda EU686.5M Vs. EU733.4M Y/y
- SU FP : Schneider Electric to Buy 75% of Motivair for $850M:M&A Snapshot
- SCHP SW : Schindler 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- SCHP SW : Schindler Plans Up to CHF500M Share Buyback Program
- SES IM : Sesa Drops as CEO of Partner Firm Digital Value Investigated
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy: Kaeser seeks second term as Chairman of the Supervisory Board : Handelsblatt
- SIP BB : Sipef 9M Palm Oil Output 266,502 Metric Tons Vs. 292,880 Y/y
- SLIGR NA : Sligro 3Q Sales EU730M Vs. EU705M Y/y
- STERV FH : Stora Enso CEO Says Efforts on Cash Flow Went ‘Too Far’: DI
- TLGO SM : Talgo Receives Takeover Interest From Sidenor Group
- TIETO FH : TietoEVRY Sees FY Organic Revenue -2%, Saw 0% to +3%
- 2330 TT : TSMC’s Profit Beats Estimates During an AI Chip Boom (1)
- UBER US : Uber Has Explored Possible Bid for Expedia: FT
- UCG IM : UniCredit, Raiffeisen See Fading Options to Get Out of Russia
- UCG IM !: UniCredit Agrees to 1,000 Voluntary Layoffs, 500 Hires: Union
- USAP US : Aperam to Buy Universal Stainless for $45/Share in All-Cash Deal
- VACN SW : VAT 9M Net Sales CHF659.0M Vs. CHF663.5M Y/y

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2024

>>> Up
* Aker Solutions Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 61 kroner
* Arcadium Lithium Raised to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $5.85
* Beijer REF Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 190 kronor
* DiaSorin SpA Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* INVISIO AB Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 295 kronor
* Lithium Americas Raised to Outperform at National Bank
* Lufthansa Raised to Hold at Stifel; PT 6.50 euros
* Ontex Raised to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux

>>> Down
* Aena Cut to Neutral at JB Capital Markets; PT 226 euros
* ASML Cut to Hold at DZ Bank; PT 650 euros
* DiaSorin SpA Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 105 euros
* Eramet Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT 45 euros
* Givaudan Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 4,650 Swiss francs
* Jenoptik Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 26 euros
* Nel Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 4.30 kroner
* Novavax PT Cut to $25 from $31 at Jefferies
* Orkla Cut to Hold at Nordea
* Qiagen Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 45 euros
* Subsea 7 Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 200 kroner
* Uber Cut to Neutral at Daiwa; PT $84

>>> Initiation
* AbbVie Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $203
* Amgen Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $380
* Bristol Myers Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $56
* Constellation Energy Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $342
* Eli Lilly Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $1,100
* Gilead Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT $105
* Lonza Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 630 Swiss francs
* Merck & Co Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $115
* Moderna Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $55
* Pfizer Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT $32
* Ventura Offshore Holding Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 45 kroner

>>> Call
* Endesa a Hold at Jefferies, Regulatory Upside Mainly Priced In
* Givaudan’s Earnings Growth Limited in 2025, Citi Downgrades
* Goldman’s Trading Desk Sees S&P 500 Reaching 6,270 by Year-End
* Buy DAX Strangles to Play SAP Earnings, JPMorgan Strategists Say
* Novonesis Cut at Citi, Growth Expectations Difficult to Achieve

>>> US After Hours Summary: AA +8.8%, SNV +3.1%, STLD +2.8% higher on earnings;

After Hours Summary: AA +8.8%, SNV +3.1%, STLD +2.8% higher on earnings; EFX -4.6%, CSX -4.3%, KMI -2.6%, DFS -1.2% lower on earnings; GEVO +45.8% and CLMT +18.6% higher on Dept of Energy awards

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AA +8.8% (also Alcoa and IGNIS Equity progressing toward cooperation agreement), SNV +3.1%, STLD +2.8%, HOMB +1.8%, FR +0.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: GEVO +45.8% (Dept of Energy awards $1.46 bln commitment for its Net-Zero 1 project), CLMT +18.6% (Dept of Energy awards $1.44 bln commitment to Montana Renewables), CODI +1.6% (authorizes new $100 mln share repurchase program), ACAD +0.7% (Health Canada grants marketing authorization of DAYBUE), RKLB +0.4% (adds Electron launch to its launch manifest for a commercial mission), CAAP +0.3% (Sept traffic), REAX +0.2% (files for $100 mln share offering by the co and 45 mln share offering by the selling shareholders)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PAL -9.3%, EFX -4.6%, CSX -4.3%, LBRT -3.6%, SLG -2.9%, KMI -2.6%, CNS -2.3%, DFS -1.2%, PPG -0.9%, CCI -0.6%, TFIN -0.5%, REXR -0.2%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: LCID -11.6% (files mixed shelf securities offering ; also offering of 262,446,931 shares and corresponding investment by an affiliate of PIF), CMTL -11.1% (to delay 10-K filing), CAPR -9.1% (stock offering), CERS -5.6% (provides updates on INTERCEPT red blood cell programs), HCSG -2.2% (identifies a cybersecurity incident), ERO -1.7% (full power has been restored at Tucuma), LXRX -1% (licensing agreement for Sotagliflozin), PSX -0.4% (to cease ops at its Los Angeles-area refinery in 4Q25), AMBC -0.2% (approve sale of Legacy Financial Guarantee Business), CTO -0.1% (files $500 mln mixed shelf securities offering)