Le Monde : Didier Guérin, haut magistrat : « Marine Le Pen est actuellement inél

Didier Guérin, haut magistrat : « Marine Le Pen est actuellement inéligible jusqu’à la décision de la Cour de cassation sur son pourvoi »

Ancien responsable du service de la législation pénale au ministère de la justice, Didier Guérin a rejoint la Cour de cassation en 2007 et a été président de la chambre criminelle de la haute juridiction de 2014 à 2017, puis membre du Conseil supérieur de la magistrature de 2019 à 2023. Le magistrat, aujourd’hui président de chambre honoraire à la Cour de cassation, est un spécialiste de la procédure pénale qui fait autorité. Il estime que la candidate du Rassemblement national à l’élection présidentielle de 2027, Marine Le Pen, est toujours inéligible jusqu’à la décision de la Cour de cassation, qui doit trancher sur son pourvoi, et qu’elle se trouve ainsi dans une situation juridiquement complexe.

Dans le numéro de la revue « Droit pénal » paru en octobre, vous avez analysé la situation de Marine Le Pen d’un strict point de vue juridique. Quelle est-elle ?
J’ai fait cet examen approfondi sur la question posée par l’inéligibilité avec exécution provisoire, en raison de sa complexité. Ma conclusion est que Marine Le Pen est actuellement inéligible jusqu’à la décision de la Cour de cassation sur son pourvoi, et qu’en cas de cassation de l’arrêt de la cour d’appel de Paris, elle le demeurera.

La candidate du Rassemblement national a été condamnée à deux reprises, dans l’affaire des assistants parlementaires des députés européens de son parti, alors le Front national…
Elle a en effet été condamnée, le 31 mars 2025, par le tribunal correctionnel de Paris, pour « détournement de fonds publics » et « complicité de détournement », à quatre ans d’emprisonnement, dont deux ferme, mais aménageables sous bracelet électronique, 100 000 euros d’amende et cinq ans d’inéligibilité avec exécution provisoire.

Le 7 juillet, la cour d’appel de Paris a confirmé sa culpabilité, mais elle a réduit sa peine à trois ans d’emprisonnement dont deux ans avec sursis, la partie ferme étant aménagée sous la forme d’une détention à domicile sous surveillance électronique, avec toujours 100 000 euros d’amende. La cour a enfin prononcé une peine d’inéligibilité de quarante-cinq mois dont trente avec sursis, de sorte que, au prononcé de l’arrêt, la période d’inéligibilité de quinze mois était exécutée.

Quel est le sens de l’exécution provisoire ?
L’exécution provisoire permet d’appliquer immédiatement une peine sans attendre le résultat d’un recours. Il est ainsi possible, par exemple, d’interdire immédiatement à un professionnel condamné pour agressions sexuelles de rester en poste, en attendant la décision de la cour d’appel, voire, en cas de pourvoi, de la Cour de cassation : on peut comprendre qu’un tribunal juge indispensable de l’empêcher immédiatement d’exercer sa profession, au regard du danger qu’il présente, en attendant la réponse ultime de la justice.

Ces règles s’appliquent à la peine d’inéligibilité avec exécution provisoire, le Conseil constitutionnel l’a déclaré conforme à la Constitution en 2025, sous réserve d’une motivation spéciale de la décision. Le juge doit rechercher si l’exécution provisoire d’une inéligibilité constitue une atteinte proportionnée à l’exercice d’un mandat ou à la liberté des électeurs – le tribunal de Paris a estimé que c’était le cas pour Marine Le Pen.

Des juristes ont cependant assuré que l’inéligibilité de Marine Le Pen était, elle aussi, suspendue par le pourvoi…
A mon avis, à tort, et je n’ai pas vu jusqu’à présent d’argumentations à l’appui de leur position. En revanche, il existe plusieurs jurisprudences qui posent le principe que l’exécution provisoire d’une peine décidée en première instance demeure applicable pendant la procédure de cassation. Il s’agit de deux arrêts de la chambre criminelle de la Cour de cassation, du 28 septembre 1993 et du 16 décembre 2014, à propos de l’exécution provisoire d’un sursis avec mise à l’épreuve, ainsi que d’un arrêt du Conseil d’Etat le 20 décembre 2019 dans un contentieux électoral. Aucune jurisprudence contraire à celles que je mets en avant n’est intervenue à ce jour.

Il s’agissait d’affaires différentes…
Bien sûr, le cas de figure pour Marine Le Pen est effectivement nouveau, mais le principe posé par l’exécution provisoire de l’inéligibilité est juridiquement le même, et il ne peut pas y avoir de règles différentes selon les hypothèses. L’objectif de l’exécution provisoire, c’est l’exécution immédiate d’une peine, quelle qu’elle soit, et elle doit avoir une portée générale applicable à toute décision. Un principe simple est ainsi appliqué : une décision d’appel dont l’effet est suspendu ne remet pas en cause ce qui a été décidé avec effet immédiat par une première juridiction.

Que se passe-t-il si la Cour de cassation casse l’arrêt de la cour d’appel ?
La chambre criminelle de la Cour de cassation renverra alors l’affaire devant la même cour d’appel autrement composée, ou devant une autre cour d’appel pour un nouveau procès. L’inéligibilité décidée en première instance continuera de s’appliquer, et Marine Le Pen ne pourra donc pas, en principe, se présenter à une quelconque élection avant le 31 mars 2030, tant qu’elle n’aura pas de nouveau été jugée en appel.

C’est au Conseil constitutionnel qu’il appartiendra toutefois d’établir la liste des candidats à l’élection présidentielle, au plus tard le 26 mars 2027. La question est de savoir si le Conseil constitutionnel s’estimerait lié par la décision judiciaire, comme le ferait dans un cas similaire le Conseil d’Etat. Si cette liste est établie avant la décision sur le pourvoi, Marine Le Pen sera de la même manière, selon mon analyse, inéligible.

Et si le pourvoi est rejeté ?
Si le pourvoi est rejeté, la condamnation de Marine Le Pen par la cour d’appel devient définitive, et la question de l’inéligibilité ne se pose plus, puisque les quinze mois fixés par la cour d’appel auront été exécutés. Se posera une autre question, l’exécution de la détention à domicile avec bracelet électronique. Compte tenu du calendrier, il m’apparaît peu probable qu’un placement sous bracelet électronique puisse être mis en œuvre avant les échéances électorales.

Où en est l’instruction du pourvoi, qui est au cœur de la candidature de Marine Le Pen ?
La Cour de cassation a indiqué, le 16 octobre, que 13 pourvois ont été formés par 12 personnes condamnées par la cour d’appel, et par le Parlement européen, partie civile. Leurs mémoires vont être examinés par deux rapporteurs et deux avocats généraux, compte tenu de l’urgence.

Des questions prioritaires de constitutionnalité ont aussi été déposées et seront examinées le 16 décembre, puis éventuellement transmises au Conseil constitutionnel si la chambre criminelle estime qu’elles sont nouvelles ou sérieuses. Le Conseil constitutionnel devra alors statuer dans les trois mois. Mais la chambre criminelle devra attendre cette décision avant de tenir une audience sur les pourvois : le calendrier deviendrait très serré, alors que le premier tour de l’élection est prévu le 18 avril 2027 et la liste définitive des candidats dressée le 26 mars au plus tard. Si les questions ne sont pas transmises, le déroulement de la procédure sera plus rapide.

Mais que se passe-t-il si le pourvoi est examiné à une date très proche de l’élection présidentielle ?
Si la Cour de cassation n’a pas tranché les pourvois avant l’établissement de la liste officielle des candidats, l’exécution provisoire de l’inéligibilité avec exécution provisoire prononcée par le tribunal correctionnel s’appliquera comme elle s’applique aujourd’hui, et Marine Le Pen sera juridiquement inéligible.

Le point est d’importance : si Marine Le Pen était retirée de la liste des candidats par le Conseil constitutionnel, il serait alors trop tard pour qu’un autre candidat de son parti puisse concourir à l’élection présidentielle.

Dans ce cas, pourquoi les avocats des condamnés prennent-ils le risque de retarder l’examen des pourvois en multipliant les questions prioritaires de constitutionnalité ?
C’est un choix de la défense, qui n’entre pas dans le cadre d’une analyse purement juridique.

Que devient la condamnation de Marine Le Pen si son pourvoi est rejeté et si elle est élue présidente de la République ?
L’article 67 de la Constitution dispose que le Président de la République « ne peut, durant son mandat et devant aucune juridiction ou autorité administrative française, être requis de témoigner non plus que faire l’objet d’une action, d’un acte d’information, d’instruction ou de poursuite ».

Elle bénéficiera donc d’une immunité présidentielle qui empêchera l’exécution de la peine pendant son mandat. Cette immunité fera à l’évidence obstacle à la pose d’un bracelet électronique, même si ce n’est pas expressément dit par les textes. Marine Le Pen devrait alors exécuter la peine après son mandat.

Ce serait la première fois qu’un chef de l’Etat, définitivement condamné, entrerait à l’Elysée ?
Non, Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte avait été condamné avant d’être élu président de la République en 1848. J’ajoute que l’opposition pourrait estimer que cette condamnation est manifestement incompatible avec l’exercice du mandat présidentiel, au regard notamment du rôle, prévu par la Constitution, de garant de l’indépendance de l’autorité judiciaire. Elle pourrait envisager une procédure de destitution devant la Haute Cour, en application de l’article 68 de la Constitution. Mais, compte tenu des strictes conditions exigées, cette procédure n’aboutirait probablement pas.

Electrek : BYD names its ultra-luxury EV, and it could be a game changer next we

BYD names its ultra-luxury EV, and it could be a game changer next week


BYD’s new flagship EV will be its largest and most luxurious electric sedan yet, potentially debuting two firsts for the company next week: Rolls-Royce-style coach doors and solid-state batteries.

BYD teases Yangwang Altior EV ahead of Nov 5 debut
BYD is better known for its low-cost electric cars, like the Seagull, a little hatchback that sells for under $10,000 in China.

The Chinese auto giant has greatly expanded its portfolio over the past few months and years. BYD now offers everything from entry-level EVs to three-row flagship SUVs, pickup trucks, electric supercars, and just about everything in between.

BYD has three sub-brands: Denza, FangChengBao, and Yangwang. It also has two main families under the BYD brand: the Dynasty and Ocean series.

Yangwang sits at the top of BYD’s brand hierarchy and showcases its latest breakthrough technologies.

Previously, Yangwang vehicles debuted on BYD’s quad-motor e4 platform, delivering a whopping 1,300 horsepower and featuring its DiSus-X intelligent body control system, which enables the vehicle to “dance,” jump, and drive on three wheels.


For its next model, BYD is pushing further into the elite segment to take on ultra-luxury brands like Rolls-Royce, Bentley, and Mercedes-Maybach.

BYD revealed the name of its flagship ultra-luxury EV for the first time on Tuesday: the Yangwang Altior, along with a new teaser of the partially uncovered executive sedan.



Yangwang general manager Hu Xiaoqing said the name was chosen as an independent Chinese-English naming scheme. In China, it goes by DingYao. The “Ding” symbolizes stability and endurance, while “Yao” signifies radiant brilliance, or shining brightly like a star in the sky.

The English name Altior comes from Latin for “higher,” representing Yangwang’s relentless pursuit of ever-greater heights.

The new teaser comes after Hu revealed several images of the new Yangwang executive sedan testing for the first time last month.


Although it was disguised, it appeared to be about the same shape and size as the Mercedes-Benz Maybach S-Class or Rolls-Royce Phantom. Local reports indicate it will be around 5,500 mm (216″) long.

HU confirmed for the first time last week that the global launch of the new flagship sedan will take place in the UAE, not in BYD’s home market of China.

BYD has not yet revealed a specific launch date, but the Yangwang sedan could make its first appearance as early as next week. According to CarNewsChina, citing “sources familiar with the project,” BYD is aiming to reveal the new flagship model in Dubai, UAE, around November 5.

Zheng Yu, Yangwang’s executive general manager, said the new model will feature “unprecedented disruptive technology,” but didn’t reveal specifics.

Although details are still limited, the ultra-luxury sedan was shown at BYD’s Flash Charging station, suggesting it will support megawatt flash charging.

It also features rear-hinged coach doors, a first for BYD. The flagship EV will reportedly be the first to feature BYD’s solid-state batteries.

BYD executive vice president Stella Li said during an interview with Carwow.es last month that the company’s first vehicle to use solid-state batteries will debut in 2027.

Li said BYD is “in the leading position” in solid-state battery technology and its commercialization, and the company plans to prove it next year.


BYD’s battery unit, FinDreams, plans to begin production of sulfide-based all-solid-state batteries in 2027. It will initially be produced in limited batches, then scale to mass production closer to the end of the decade.

While BYD has yet to confirm it, introducing the new battery tech in a flagship model would make sense.

The executive sedan is expected to debut around November 5. Prices are rumored to start in the 2 million yuan range, or about $300,000.

Yangwang’s current electric sedan, the U7, starts at 658,000 yuan ($98,000). The brand also sells the U8 (and U8L), a plug-in hybrid luxury off-road SUV, and the U9, a fully electric super-coupe.

The extended U8L is Yangwang’s highest-priced mass-produced vehicle, starting at 1.45 million yuan ($217,000).

WSJ : GE Vernova to Buy High-Voltage Grid Equipment Manufacturer for $9 Billion

GE Vernova to Buy High-Voltage Grid Equipment Manufacturer for $9 Billion
The energy company, formed from the breakup of General Electric, said the acquisition will create scale across its electrification portfolio

  • GE Vernova agreed to acquire high-voltage grid equipment manufacturer Trench Group from Triton Partners for $9 billion.
  • GE Vernova expects the acquisition of Trench Group to close in late 2027, subject to regulatory approvals.
  • Separately, GE Vernova raised its full-year revenue outlook to between $46.5 billion and $47.5 billion.

GE Vernova GEV 4.73%increase; up pointing triangle agreed to acquire a high-voltage grid equipment manufacturer for $9 billion, a deal the company said will help meet increasing demand for grid-modernization and energy-security technologies.

GE Vernova said Wednesday the deal for Trench Group, which it is buying from investment-firm Triton Partners, will further enable it to serve fast-growing demand for grid equipment.

“Trench’s differentiated high-voltage grid technology, strong execution, and deep customer relationships are key enablers of the modernized, resilient grid required to keep pace with the electricity supercycle,” GE Vernova Chief Executive Scott Strazik said.

Trench’s products are found in the majority of high-voltage direct current lines built globally, according to GE Vernova. The company serves more than 800 global utilities and hyperscalers, with a manufacturing footprint that spans 11 sites across Europe, North America and Asia.

Separately, GE Vernova on Wednesday raised its full-year outlook after profit and revenue jumped in the recent quarter, driven by continued demand for electricity infrastructure.

Shares of GE Vernova were recently up almost 4% in premarket trading to $930.60.

The company, formed from the breakup of General Electric, now expects revenue to come in between $46.5 billion to $47.5 billion for the year, up from a prior outlook of $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion. It also raised its forecasts for adjusted Ebitda margin and free cash flow.

Analysts polled by FactSet had forecast full-year revenue of $46.33 billion.

Strazik said demand for electricity infrastructure continues to increase, with GE Vernova now projecting its backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter.

Orders jumped to $29.3 billion in the latest period, with equipment growth in power and continued services strength.

“We continue to innovate and develop new solutions for utility and data center customers to meet growing demand, including electrification technologies that support integration and resiliency,” Strazik said.

For the third quarter, GE Vernova reported net income of $1.29 billion, up from $453 million a year earlier. Quarterly earnings of $4.81 a share came in ahead of the $4.03 a share that analysts were expecting.

Total revenues jumped 27% to $12.64 billion, topped Wall Street models for $11.99 billion.

GE Vernova also doubled its share repurchase authorization this month, with its board approving an increase to $20 billion, up from $10 billion.

GE Vernova’s deal for Trench is expected to be funded equally between cash and debt. The acquisition is expected to close in late 2027, subject to the completion of customary regulatory approvals.

WSJ : Nelson Peltz’s Trian Offers to Buy Wendy’s for $1.4 Billion Burger chain’s

Nelson Peltz’s Trian Offers to Buy Wendy’s for $1.4 Billion
Burger chain’s shares are down roughly 70% over the past five years

  • Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management is offering to buy fast-food chain Wendy’s for around $1.4 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The group, which includes Flynn Group, BlueFive Capital and Sixth Street Partners, offered to pay $7.35 a share in cash to take Wendy’s private.
  • Trian believes Wendy’s requires significant capital investments and a complex turnaround that would be easier to execute as a private company.

Nelson Peltz’s hedge fund Trian Fund Management is offering to buy fast-food chain Wendy’s WEN -0.81%decrease; down pointing triangle for around $1.4 billion, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trian, a longtime shareholder in Wendy’s, is leading a group that has offered to pay $7.35 a share in cash to take Wendy’s, the people said.

The restaurant operator Flynn Group and the investment firms BlueFive Capital and Sixth Street Partners are working with Trian. The group’s nonbinding bid is expected to be disclosed in a regulatory filing later Wednesday morning.

Wendy’s had a market value of roughly $1.2 billion as of Tuesday’s close. The bid represents a roughly 20% premium over the closing price.

The fast-food company’s stock is down roughly 70% over the past five years after operational missteps weighed on traffic and pressured earnings. The broader restaurant industry has also been under pressure more recently.

Trian thinks that Wendy’s is at “a critical juncture,” the people said. Trian believes the company requires significant capital investments and that the complex, multiyear turnaround it requires would be easier to execute as a private company, they said.

In May, Wendy’s said that its former chief operating officer Robert Wright would be returning to the company as chief executive after previously serving as CEO of sandwich chain Potbelly.

Since taking over, Wright has told franchisees and investors that the company shortchanged ingredient quality for cost savings, that service had become uneven and that Wendy’s depended too much on deals. The missteps also cost Wendy’s the No. 2 spot among big burger chains by U.S. sales, to Burger King.

Peltz has long been a major investor in the chain. His firm currently holds a roughly 16% stake, along with related parties, and continues to have a board presence.

Earlier this year, Peltz and others associated with his firm Trian Fund Management disclosed in a securities filing that they had spoken to potential investors about strategic options for Wendy’s, including potentially taking control of the company and taking it private. Trian said at the time that it had retained advisers to determine how to improve returns for Wendy’s investors.

Trian in 2022 pushed for strategic options at Wendy’s, including a potential sale. It backed off in 2023.

Earlier this year, Trian and venture-capital firm General Catalyst took the big asset manager Janus Henderson private.

Flynn is one of the largest restaurant operators globally and already one of the largest Wendy’s franchisees in the U.S., with over 300 Wendy’s locations around the world, according to its website.

WSJ : VF Profit Rises on Strength in The North Face and Timberland The apparel a

VF Profit Rises on Strength in The North Face and Timberland
The apparel and footwear company’s revenue fell 4% to $2.7 billion in the second quarter

  • VF posted a second-quarter net income of $285.3 million, up from $189.8 million in the same quarter a year ago.
  • The company’s second-quarter revenue fell 4% to $2.7 billion, beating analyst expectations of $2.67 billion.
  • Vans global direct-to-consumer sales returned to growth in the quarter for the first time in nearly five years.

VF posted a higher profit in the second quarter, driven by steady growth at The North Face and Timberland, alongside a turnaround in direct sales at Vans.

The apparel and footwear company on Wednesday posted net income of $285.3 million, or 71 cents a share, compared with $189.8 million, or $48 cents a share, in the same quarter a year ago.

Adjusted earnings were 70 cents a share. According to FactSet, analysts were expecting 54 cents a share.

Revenue fell 4% to $2.7 billion, but not by as much as analysts forecasted, which was for a drop to $2.67 billion. The company benefited from a 4% rise in revenue from The North Face brand, its largest, as well as 4% growth at Timberland. Vans revenue fell 10% in the quarter.

The company noted that Vans’ global direct-to-consumer sales returned to growth in the quarter for the first time in nearly five years.

Chief Executive Bracken Darrell said that the performance for the quarter came in ahead of guidance across key metrics, crediting the company’s product lines and execution.

“The North Face and Timberland continued to deliver consistent growth, and Altra grew more than 40%, all powered by bold product design and innovation and brand storytelling that are resonating with our consumers,” Darrell said.

VF reaffirmed its guidance for the year.

TechCrunch : VCs will make billions on Anthropic’s IPO, but Amazon is set to mak

VCs will make billions on Anthropic’s IPO, but Amazon is set to make much (much) more

Many investors stand to win big when Anthropic goes public. Stakes held by firms including Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital are expected to return billions.

Yet according to Anthropic’s S-1, none of those VC firms owns 5%, the threshold for being included in the principal stockholders’ table. That’s highly unusual. In a typical tech IPO, lead venture investors hold double-digit-percentage stakes in the startups they backed. The reason is Anthropic’s size. At its $965 billion private valuation, a 1% stake is worth nearly $10 billion, so, for example, Menlo’s roughly $14 billion position is only about 1.5% of the company, according to recently reported Bloomberg figures.

While the venture firms may lack sizable percentage stakes, Anthropic sold large stakes to strategic partners, companies that are also its business partners. Indeed, Amazon is likely the single largest financial beneficiary of the IPO.

Amazon first backed Anthropic in 2023 with a commitment to invest up to $4 billion in the AI company. Since then, Amazon has poured billions more into Anthropic. Instead of taking stock upfront, Amazon structured much of its investment as convertible notes, a type of debt that converts into shares upon an IPO or sale.

According to the S-1, Amazon holds convertible notes with $6.2 billion in principal outstanding as of June 30. That is Anthropic’s entire debt load. But as Anthropic’s valuation soared across successive funding rounds, the shares those notes will convert into became far more valuable. Amazon’s own filings valued its note holdings at $97.9 billion as of June 30.

As the value of Amazon’s convertible notes surged, Anthropic had to record the growing value of what it owes on its books. It reported the adjustments on its income statement under “change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs,” a line that totaled $72.4 billion for the first half of 2026. The charge is non-cash, meaning no money left the company.

Amazon’s notes could convert into as many as 1.84 billion shares, according to the S-1. But a cap limits Amazon to 12% of Anthropic’s “partially diluted” share count, a figure that counts some shares not yet issued, such as stock options. Amazon can waive the cap. Notes that can’t convert will stay outstanding and convert in later quarters, subject to the same limit.

But the notes are only part of Amazon’s holdings. It further invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock (a type of equity), in the second quarter, according to Amazon’s quarterly report for the period ended June 30. Amazon did this by investing $5 billion in each of Anthropic’s last two funding rounds. Combined with the $8 billion it invested in the notes from 2023 through 2025, that brings Amazon’s total investment to about $18 billion.

Beyond its stock gains, Amazon will also continue to earn significant revenue from Anthropic, which has committed to spend at least $110 billion on AWS over the next 10 years.

Google, too, is set for a major windfall from both the listing and its cloud computing deals with Anthropic. The search giant held about 14% of Anthropic as of early last year, according to court filings that were reported by The New York Times, and has invested more since, including $10 billion in April. (Google was likely diluted in subsequent and massive funding rounds, with PitchBook analyst Harrison Rolfes telling TechCrunch he estimates its current stake at closer to 5.6%.) It has also secured at least $114 billion in cloud commitments from the Anthropic through 2033.

While VCs set for massive paydays have little reason to complain, the S-1 makes it clear that the biggest winners of Anthropic’s IPO may well be tech giants like Amazon, which backed a would-be rival early on and now sell it much of the computing power it runs on.

The S-1 itself warns that some of those cloud providers also build rival AI models and that they may not always want the same things that Anthropic does.

FT : The great American investment boom This is a sign of an economy that is pri

The great American investment boom
This is a sign of an economy that is prioritising the future over the present

National income and product accounts (NIPA) can appear boring. But, like all forms of accounting, they can sometimes provide useful insights.  

In NIPA, a country’s production (GDP) and imports can go towards private consumption, government consumption, private investment or exports. Imagine that a country either produces or imports a pile of potatoes: each potato can be eaten by a citizen (private consumption), eaten by the government (government consumption), planted in the ground to make potatoes in the future (private investment) or sent to a foreign country (exports).     

What might be less obvious is that two of these uses — private investment and exports — build a better future for citizens and their children, while the other two — private consumption and government consumption — do not.    

Investment — the building of factories, office buildings and houses, along with the installation of equipment — is the real, physical manifestation of an economy prioritising the future over the present. Physical investment produces goods and services in the future but not today. Likewise, when a country exports more than it imports, its residents therefore must be engaged in net foreign direct investment or purchasing financial instruments such as currency, bonds, stocks or land deeds from the rest of the world. That is, the country is saving for its future. When a country imports more than it exports (as the US has been for decades), its residents must either be spending the proceeds of their net foreign direct investment or selling financial instruments to the rest of the world to pay for the net imports, implying the country is either borrowing or dissaving.  

Given this framework, where is the US now?    

First, consider the two uses of GDP that don’t go towards a nation’s future. Private consumption is growing at an annualised inflation-adjusted rate of 2.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, while GDP grew at just under 2.4 per cent. That is, our country’s rate of production is outpacing private consumption. 

While real GDP is growing, federal government consumption is falling and total government consumption is hardly growing at all. Real federal government consumption expenditures are down 2.3 per cent year-on-year and are down 3.9 per cent cumulatively since the fourth quarter of 2024. Total government consumption expenditures (including state and local government) are essentially flat.    

Now consider the two uses of GDP that do go towards the future: investment and trade.

Under President Donald Trump, investment is outpacing production. In the first half of 2026, inflation-adjusted non-residential fixed investment is growing at an annual rate of 6.9 per cent, compared to 3.8 per cent in 2025, and just 2.3 per cent in 2024. American publicly traded companies are on track to nearly double their capital expenditures between 2024 ($1.4tn) and 2026 ($2.4tn). In the first half of 2026, inflation-adjusted overall investment is up at an annualised rate of 5.9 per cent.   

Finally, both exports and imports point towards the re-industrialisation of the American economy. Real exports of goods are up 8.2 per cent year-on-year in Q2, while real exports of goods and services are up 5.8 per cent. Exports of capital goods (except automotive) are up 12.6 per cent. American capital goods exports in every single quarter since Trump took office have exceeded even the best quarter of the Joe Biden administration. 

America’s imports also point towards re-industrialisation. Rather than importing a large share of consumer products, we are importing capital goods at record levels. These goods, such as computers and industrial machinery, are fuel for future American manufacturing. Imports of capital goods are at a record high, both in dollar value and as a share of goods imports. Relative to this point in 2025, imports of capital goods (except automotive) are up 39 per cent. At the same time, imports of consumer goods are down to their lowest share of total goods imports on record. 

To be sure, America is still importing more than it is exporting or earning from its net foreign direct investments, and this difference is akin to our nation dissaving by selling assets or borrowing from foreigners. But it’s one thing to borrow to finance private or government consumption and another to borrow to finance investment. Today the US is investing to build a brighter future for ourselves and, in the words of the constitution, our posterity. 

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 28th of Oct. 2026 V2(+)

>>> Up
* BioMerieux Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 103 euros
* Digia Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 6.80 euros
* GTT Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 210 euros
* Navigator Co Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets; PT 4.20 euros
* PayPal PT Raised to $45 from $40 at Evercore ISI
* Revolution Beauty Group PLC Raised to Buy at Cavendish
* Semapa Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets; PT 30.80 euros
* Sobi Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 530 kronor
* Syensqo Raised to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 74.10 euros
* Wartsila Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 33 euros

>>> Down
* Boeing Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $192
* CA Immo Cut to Hold at Erste Group; PT 23.60 euros (+)
* EMS-Chemie Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 870 Swiss francs
* Johnson Matthey Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 2,550 pence
* Kosmos Energy Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $2.90
* Qiagen Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT $53
* Remy Cointreau Cut to Sell at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 39 euros (+)
* SEB Cut to Neutral at BNP Paribas; PT 235 kronor
* Spotify Cut to Neutral at President Capital Management; PT $608
* Vaisala Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 66 euros
* Wartsila Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 29 euros
* Whirlpool Cut to Sell at Stifel; PT $20

>>> Initiation
* Jungfraubahn Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 310 Swiss francs
* Marvell Technology Rated New Buy at SPDB Intl HK; PT $303
* Poste Italiane Reinstated Neutral at Goldman
* Sensirion Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 87 Swiss francs

>>> Call
* Aston Martin Results In Line as Core Pricing Improves: Barclays (+)

>>> What to look at today - 28th of November 2026

Asian stocks rose, tracking gains on Wall Street as renewed enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade lifted equities ahead of earnings from tech megacaps and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.6%, as benchmarks in Australia, Japan and South Korea advanced. The Kospi Index rose 2.6%, with SK Hynix Inc.’s stock climbing after the company reported operating profit that beat estimates. The chipmaker is planning a total of 100 trillion won ($75.4 billion) in shareholder returns for 2026. Earlier, a closely watched gauge of US chipmakers jumped 3.6% on Tuesday, sending Wall Street benchmarks higher. Meta Platforms Inc.’s $25 billion share sale was five times oversubscribed, while Oracle Corp. expanded its partnership with OpenAI. The optimistic tone came as Alphabet Inc. and Microsoft Corp. prepared to report earnings Wednesday, while Amazon.com Inc. announces Thursday. Elsewhere, global crude oil benchmark Brent broadly held its losses from the previous session as traders assessed efforts to de-escalate tensions in the Persian Gulf. Treasuries were little changed in New York trading, while the dollar edged up. Optimism around the AI trade has re-emerged as a string of deals and fundraising highlighted the scale of investment continuing to flow into the industry. Meta’s $98 billion capital raise, SpaceX’s $40 billion equipment-finance lease and Anthropic’s S-1 filing helped ease concerns that led to a rout in chip stocks earlier this month. In geopolitical news, the Israeli election increasingly appeared deadlocked. Meantime, Fed policymakers are expected to keep rates steady Wednesday, buying time before potentially raising them again. Chairman Kevin Warsh, who has offered little guidance on the path ahead, may avoid signaling much about December while leaving intact market expectations for a hike. Mike Wilson, chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, discusses the outlook for near-term market risks and their impact on his investment strategy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television. On Tuesday, data showed US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in October for the first time in four months, buoyed by brighter views on the labor market and business conditions. The reading topped all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The Fed will be followed by rate decisions from the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan this week. US After Hours UCTT +10.7%, MANH +10.7%, ICLR +10.1%, PPG +7.4%, RBBN +6.4%, WNEB +6.3%, ENSG +6.2% higher on earnings; INTA -17.5%, ENPH -15.8%, CSGP -11.0%, OI -8.4%, HOOD -7.4%, NXPI -7.3%, STX -5.8% lower on earnings

Nikkei +1.08% Hang Seng +0.24% CSI +0.74% Kospi +6.63% Shanghai +0.81% Shenzen +1.82%

Eur$ 11128 CNH 6.6663 CNY6.6677 JPY 157.90 GBP 1.3305 CHF 0.8295 RUB 80.50 TRY 49.8370 WTI$ 101.17 +1.27% Gold 4,050 -0.18% BTC 80,903 +0.25% ETH 2,358 +0.61%

S&P +0.02% Nasdaq -0.23% EuroStoxx -0.23% FTSE -0.20% Dax -0.38% SMI -0.24%

Macro :
- Philippe Laffont’s Coatue $13B CTEK Fund Up 28% This Year With Anthropic As Its 13% Top Holding
- Israeli Opposition Leads Netanyahu After Inconclusive Vote
- Millennium Taps Prediction Markets Data in Hunt for Trading Edge
- CFTC Probes Polymarket for Violating 2022 Ban on US Users: Rtrs
- Hedge Funds Gear Up for Japan’s $60 Billion Topix Revamp Trade

Keep an eye on :
- ACAST SS : Acast 3Q Net Sales Beat Estimates
- ADYEN NA : Adyen 3Q Net Revenue Beats Estimates
- AIR FP : Boeing Cuts Delivery Target as Path to Higher Output Sputters
- AKER NO : Aker Solutions 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- ALMB DC : Alm Brand 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- ATE FP : Alten FY Organic Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates
- AMZN US : Amazon Leo Wins FCC Approval to Acquire Globalstar for $11.5b
- ANT US IPO : Anthropic Said to Pick JPMorgan to Lead IPO’s US Retail Offering
- AAPL US : Apple Bets MacBook Pro Buyers Will Pay More for Touch Screens
- ARCAD NA : Arcadis 3Q Oper Ebitda EU148M Vs. EU132M Y/y
- ASM NA : ASM Intl 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AML LN : Aston Martin 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- AIA GA : Athens Intnl Airport 9M Net Income EU173.5M Vs. EU185.8M Y/y
- ATZAF US : Aritzia Targets Up to $10.5 Billion in Revenues in Bold Five-Year Agenda - WWD
- BAS GY : BASF Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast (1)
- BAVA DC : Bavarian Gets Order for WHO’s Global Mpox Vaccine Stockpile
- BARN SW : Barry Callebaut Taps Artisanal Trend With Fermented Chocolate
- BNOR NO : BlueNord 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates, BNP Paribas Brushes Off France Concerns With 50% Equities Surge, BNP’s CIB Chairman Says European Clients Becoming More Active
- BRG NO : Borregaard 3Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- IAG LN : Itochu to Buy Minority Stake in IAG Engine Tech
- CTSH US : Cognizant Mulls Backing India AI Startup Sarvam at $4b Value: ET
- CRBN NA : Corbion 9M Organic Revenue +3.9%
- CSGP US : CoStar to Buy Vexcel for ~$730m Cash, CoStar Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- BN FP : Danone’s 3Q Sales Growth Seen Driven by Higher Pricing: Preview
- DSY FP : Dassault Systemes Boosts FY Non-IFRS Operating Margin Forecast, Dassault Systemes Raises Outlook as Software Demand Grows
- DEEZR FP : Deezer Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda Above EU10M, Est. EU16.2M
- DHER GY : Delivery Hero 3Q Gross Merchandise Value Beats Estimates
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Says SREP Requirements Lower for 2027
- DKSH SW : DKSH Acquires Antibiotic Brand Rocephin From Roche
- DWS GY : DWS 3Q Cost to Income Ratio Misses Estimates
- EPROB SS : Electrolux Professional 3Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- ELE SM : Endesa Sees FY Ordinary Net Above EU2.4B, Saw EU2.3B to EU2.4B
- EQT US : EQT Corp 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- FSECURE FH : F-Secure 3Q Revenue Above Estimates
- FER SM : Ferrovial NV 9M Ebitda EU1.21B, Ferrovial Results Beat on Construction Performance
- FORTUM FH : Fortum 3Q Adjusted Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- GLA1V FH : Glaston 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- GOOGL US : OpenAI Plans to Buy Google’s AI Chips, No Terms: Information
- GSK LN : GSK 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- HEIA NA : Heineken 3Q Organic Total Volume Beats Estimates, Heineken Volumes Beat Estimates in Early Boost for New CEO
- IDIA SW : Idorsia's Lucerastat Starts Phase 3 Fabry Kidney Study
- IG DC : InstallatorGruppen Keeps FY Outlook; Seeing High Activity
- ISP IM : Intesa Sanpaolo Gets ECB Approval for Its Monte Paschi Bid
- JYSK DC : Jyske 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- KNEBV FH : Kone 3Q Orders Meets Estimates
- KPN NA : KPN 3Q Adjusted Ebitda After Leases Meets Estimates
- LUOTEA FH : Lassila & Tikanoja 3Q Sales Above Estimates
- LOGN SW : Logitech Falls as Q3 Sales Guide is Hit by Supply Disruption
- MAP SM : Mapfre 9M Net Income EU924.3M Vs. EU829.0M Y/y
- MELE BB : Melexis 3Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- MBG GY : Mercedes 3Q Sales Meet Estimates
- MONC IM : Moncler’s Evolution Into a Global Luxury Powerhouse - WWD
- NANO FP : {NANO FP Equity IOIA <GO>}
- NAS NO : Norwegian Air 3Q Pretax Profit Beats Estimates
- NXPI US : NXP Semi Sees 4Q Adjusted EPS $4.14 to $4.58, Est. $4.36
- OMV AV : OMV Says Incident at Schwechat Refinery During Repair of Tank
- ONON US : On Holding Falls as Mbappé Backlash Spurs China Brand Risk
- ON US : Onsemi in Talks to Buy Ferric for About $1b: Information
- ONTEX BB : Ontex 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- PIHLIS FH : Pihlajalinna 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- RAPP US : Rapport Therapeutics Offers $200m Shrs, $150m Convertible Notes
- RED SM : Redeia 3Q Net Income EU129.9M Vs. EU120.4M Y/y
- RCO FP : Remy Cointreau 2Q Organic Revenue Beats Estimates
- RIEN SW : Rieter Sees FY Sales Low End of CHF1.3B to CHF1.5B
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto Proposes 56% Pay Hike for CEO Trott, Reuters Reports
- ROP SW : Roche’s VENTANA BAP1 Test Launches Globally for Mesothelioma
- ROP SW : DKSH Acquires Antibiotic Brand Rocephin From Roche
- SDZ SW : Sandoz Group 9M Net Sales $8.70B, Upgrades Margin Guidance
- SANOMA FH : Sanoma 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- SBRY US : Sainsbury CEO Roberts Sells 560k Shares in Company at ~£3.50/Shr
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain 3Q Sales Meet Estimates, Saint-Gobain Estimates May Drop on 4Q Outlook
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins New Offshore Drilling Contracts Worth About $121m
- SAN SM : Santander 3Q Net Income Meets Estimates
- STX US : Seagate Falls as Results Don’t Extend 2026 Rally: Street Wrap
- 000660 KS : SK Hynix Unveils $45 Billion Shareholder Returns from AI Profits
- SSABA SS : SSAB 3Q Sales Meet Estimates
- STAN LN : Standard Chartered Raises Outlook After Quarterly Profit Beats
- STLA US : Stellantis Affirms Outlook in Fight to Cut Costs, Boost Quality
- STMN SW : Straumann 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- STRO NO : StrongPoint 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- SY1 GY : Symrise 3Q Organic Sales Beat Estimates
- TEL NO : Telenor 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates, Accelerates Buyback
- TEMN SW : Temenos Boosts FY Non-IFRS Ebit Forecast, Temenos ADRs Finish Higher on Ebit Beat, Guide Lift
- TPG US : TPG in Talks to Buy Ark Data Centres for $5b Valuation: FT
- 8TRA GY : Traton 9M Adjusted Operating Margin 6.9% Vs. 6.3% Y/y
- VRLA FP : Verallia 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Misses Estimates
- UBSG SW : UBS 3Q Net Income Misses Estimates, UBS Profit Meets Estimates as Americas, Asia Boost Inflows
- ULVR LN : Unilever 3Q Underlying Sales Beat Estimates
- VSVS LN : Vesuvius Extends RHI Magnesita’s PUSU Deadline to Nov. 24
- V US : Visa 4Q Net Revenue Meets Estimates, *VISA SHARES DOWN 1.7% POSTMARKET AFTER RESULTS
- WAWI NO : Wallenius Wilhelmsen Orders Up to 12 New PCTCs
- WLN FP : Worldline Maintains FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast

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