FT : Ratcliffe’s race to reboot Man Utd extends beyond the pitch



From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR CAPITAL MARKET) At: 07/21/24 07:21:36 UTC+2:00
Subject: FT : Ratcliffe’s race to reboot Man Utd extends beyond the pitch
Ratcliffe’s race to reboot Man Utd extends beyond the pitch
New billionaire owner has embarked on sweeping changes in an effort to restore club’s fortunes

Sir Jim Ratcliffe promised to reboot one the world’s most famous sporting institutions when he bought a 27 per cent a stake in Manchester United in December. The petrochemicals billionaire has wasted little time.

Eight months on, new executives have been drafted in, hundreds of job cuts announced, the playing squad upgraded and the coaching staff bolstered. The lengthy process of upgrading the club’s tired stadium and outdated training ground has started.

But after years of disappointment and drift, can a hard-driving approach honed in the cut and thrust of the chemicals industry restore the 20-time champions of English football to glory? 

“Sports teams aren’t generally known for being leading edge in terms of efficiency,” said Tim Fidler, director of research at United shareholder Ariel Investments. “Ineos has clearly built up a business over many years that has that as a strategy.”

Ratcliffe is driving the changes with a handful of trusted lieutenants from his chemical empire Ineos, which has a wealth of experience in elite cycling, sailing and motorsport, even as the billionaire Glazer family remain majority owners of United.

In keeping with Ineos’ reputation for a ruthless focus on lean operations, Ratcliffe has moved quickly to make his mark at United, a club known in the industry for a bloated workforce. Around 250 jobs — almost a quarter of the workforce — are at risk in a redundancy programme.

The plan is to “cut very deep on costs”, according to one person with knowledge of the situation, who said that staff morale is low. “These guys are not messing around . . . it could be a bumpy ride.” 

The rapid steps to transform the club are in contrast to the experience at OGC Nice, the French football team that Ratcliffe acquired in 2019.

Ineos initially took a light-touch approach, leaving power left in the hands of long-standing executives. When results failed to improve, more drastic changes followed. 

The overhaul at United also supports the view that disentangling United’s sporting operations, which Ratcliffe assumed responsibility for as part of his purchase of a stake, from the rest of the club would prove impossible.

With the start of the Premier League season just a month away, some question whether Ratcliffe’s methods will successfully translate to English football’s most successful club.


“Ineos very much have the approach of big industry; they’ve been spectacularly successful and feel like they can apply those to football,” said one senior United figure. “But every business is different, and there’s a lot of soft skill in football.”

Ratcliffe’s task is one of the toughest in football. United has failed to win a league title since Sir Alex Ferguson, the club’s most successful manager, retired in 2013. Last season the team finished eighth, United’s lowest position since the formation of the Premier League more than 30 years ago. 

The prolonged period of underachievement cannot be pinned on a lack of money. Since Ferguson’s retirement, the club has paid €1.85bn on transfers, according to figures from Transfermarkt, while recouping around €500mn from sales.

The €1.34bn net spend in that period is the highest in global football. 

Andrea Sartori, founder of consultancy Football Benchmark, said the post-Ferguson era had been “very bad” across a range of metrics.

“Whether we are looking at the transfer market spending or success on the pitch — all of the numbers, they just don’t look great,” he said. “Looking at profit before or after tax, the last ten years have pretty much been a disaster.”

Following last season’s disappointing performance in the league, United held talks with several potential new managers but ultimately opted to extend the contract of Dutch head coach Erik ten Hag, who led the team to victory in the FA Cup.

But there have been changes in the dugout, with former United fan favourite Ruud van Nistelrooy among the new arrivals on the coaching team, while Dan Ashworth, previously of Newcastle United, has been installed as the new sporting director.


Changes in senior management have been significant, a sign that Ratcliffe’s influence has extended well beyond sport.

Omar Berrada joined from arch rival Manchester City as chief executive, Ineos executive Roger Bell replaced long-standing finance chief Cliff Baty, while general counsel Patrick Stewart stepped down after more than 18 years at the club. 

“It’s about time someone acted sensibly. It shouldn’t be seen as revolutionary that an overblown workforce is trimmed and a clear governance structure is implemented,” said Chris Brady, chief intelligence officer at sports advisory firm Sportsology.

United has also moved quickly to strengthen the squad, bringing in Netherlands forward Joshua Zirkzee from Bologna for €42.5mn and talented young centre back Leny Yoro from Lille for €62mn. In a letter to fans this week, Berrada said the summer transfer window would be among his “immediate priorities”. 

“I can promise you that we will do everything we can to deliver the titles, trophies and culture expected of this club,” Berrada wrote.

But United is operating in a tougher regulatory environment than in years gone by. The Premier League has come down hard on teams for breaching rules that limit losses to £105mn over three seasons.

United, which has not generated an annual profit since before the pandemic, has been among those pushing for the rules to be rethought. 

Earlier this month, the club reported a third-quarter net loss of more than £71mn, compared to £5.5mn a year earlier, in part due to £30mn in costs related to Ratcliffe’s stake purchase.

Meanwhile the Monaco-based billionaire’s changes are being brought in without him having full ownership of the club.

The Glazers, particularly executive co-chair Joel, remain heavily involved in many of the big decisions, including senior appointments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

One said the ownership group was “very aligned”.

A senior sports executive who knows the club well said Ineos would have to be keen to demonstrate change. “The message to the players is: ‘It wasn’t you, it was the environment’,” the executive said. “Hopefully it creates a honeymoon period.”


While improvements on the pitch remain the short-term focus, the Ineos founder’s equity injection has also given United the impetus to begin investing in its infrastructure, including a £50mn project to modernise the men’s training complex at Carrington. 

The far bigger challenge will be upgrading or replacing the club’s home ground. Old Trafford remains the biggest club stadium in English football, but rivals, such as Tottenham Hotspur, have built more modern facilities that generate significant revenue beyond match days.

Ratcliffe has put together a task force to consider the options that includes former United player Gary Neville and Lord Sebastian Coe, who chaired the London 2012 Olympics. He has also floated the idea of seeking public money to help with the costs of creating a “Wembley of the North”.

But with tighter regulation and a recent history of losses, Sartori said the challenges facing Ratcliffe are “significantly more difficult to fix” now than they might have been 10 years ago.

“In other businesses you have a certain degree of predictability on your return on investment,” he said. “I don’t think football does — that’s the beauty of it.”

United decline to comment.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of July 2024

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Business Of Fashion : Kering, LVMH and Hermès Confront Luxury’s ‘Underconsumptio

Kering, LVMH and Hermès Confront Luxury’s ‘Underconsumption’ Problem
All three companies will report results amid a sharp downturn in demand in key markets. That, plus the Olympics kick off in Paris.

Luxury brands have been sounding the alarm about a global downturn in recent months. With second quarter results due out this week from three of the sector’s biggest names, we’re about to learn the extent of the damage.

Analysts expect LVMH to report 3 percent growth after market Monday, on par with the previous quarter but well below the high standard set in recent years. Meanwhile, Gucci-owner Kering is expected to report sales down 9 percent on Tuesday, Reuters reports.

The biggest and most intractable problem is China. Once responsible for the bulk of luxury brands’ growth, consumers in the world’s second-biggest economy seem to have abruptly reined back spending on glitzy items. Retail sales grew 2 percent in June, the slowest pace since December 2022, despite government efforts to boost consumer confidence. Reduced spending can partly be chalked up to a slowing economy – GDP growth also underwhelmed. But the downturn is being compounded by mounting government pressure on China’s wealthy not to flaunt their riches, recalling a slowdown in the mid-2010s linked to an anti-corruption push. The impact was already seen in Richemont’s quarterly report last week indicating sales of its pricey watches plummeted 27 percent in the country.

Elsewhere, growth is anaemic as consumer priorities shift. Success depends most on the overall health of the brand. Hot competitors such as LVMH’s Loewe or Prada’s Miu Miu continue to grow, while struggling labels like Burberry and Gucci reported steep sales drops in the US and Europe last quarter. Expect this dynamic to hold; while both Burberry and Kering have shaken up their executive ranks and strategies, neither company has changed course yet.

Hermès and a clutch of other ultra-high-end brands have yet to suffer from the slowdown. There are cracks forming even here, however. Investors were dismayed earlier this month when Brunello Cucinelli, amid otherwise strong results, failed to lift its outlook for the remainder of the year. That follows Chanel, which in May reported growing sales but warned of more volatile times ahead. Hermès’ earnings usually outperform in times of crisis, as its persistently sold-out Birkin and Kelly bags are the last expense many big spenders want to cut. If the company falls short of expectations, watch out.

In happier news, the Olympic Games open in Paris on Friday. Marketing teams at fashion brands high and low have been preparing for this moment for months, if not years. LVMH brands are expected to be omnipresent, particularly Louis Vuitton, which has found new ways to ensure its signifiers are seen by hundreds of millions of viewers at home (to cite one example, medals will be carried to the podium on LV-checkered trays). Luxury labels have recently embraced global sports as a way to burnish their status as “cultural brands.” For actual sportswear companies, the Olympics stakes are higher; Nike needs to show it still leads the way when it comes to elite performance, while smaller brands are looking to stamp their logos on their category’s biggest stage.

WWD : The 18 Best Watches for Men at Every Price Point, According to Experts

The 18 Best Watches for Men at Every Price Point, According to Experts
Top timepieces to polish off any outfit.
If you purchase an independently reviewed product or service through a link on our website, WWD may receive an affiliate commission.
Contrary to what you’d gather from walking down any busy street, an Apple Watch isn’t the only watch for men to wear. And, much like the other Apple gadget sitting in your pocket, it can’t replace the meticulous craftsmanship that goes into the best watches for men.
In the world of watch trends for 2024, there are a few standout details to keep in mind when making a timepiece investment. Heritage meets modernity as many top watch brands took vintage-inspired designs to create lust-worthy new classics. While a bigger-is-better mentality has been a long-time case and bracelet trend, some of the most popular men’s watch styles have shrunk in size to 36 or 38mm, which also happens to compliment the rise in genderless watch designs. Color also plays a major factor in the latest and greatest men’s watch releases for 2024. Dials doused in varying shades of green and other bold hues give a classic watch style a refreshing touch of charm that highlights every detail. Dress watches are on the rise, sports watches have a luxe look, but when it comes to selecting the best men’s watch, especially starter watches for a beginner collector, it really all comes down to a personal style choice of what feels right for your wrist.
In the grand scheme, some men’s watches are a financial investment. But even then, as much as you should treat it with care, Hodinkee style editor Malaika Crawford suggests that “watches are almost always purely decorative or sentimental in value, and you should treat a watch the way you would any other accessory or piece of jewelry.” Although there are hundreds of special features (and price points) to sift through, there’s no reason to feel intimidated when shopping for your new timepiece. “We need to remember that there is no intellectual barrier to entry when purchasing watches,” says Crawford. “It’s okay to buy a watch because you think it looks nice, as opposed to being functional in any real capacity.”
That said, a traditional watch can never go out of style. We’ve seen the likes of Tyler the Creator, Tom Cruise, Jay-Z and dozens of other celebrities bring their classic Cartiers out to play; to which Crawford implies this isn’t some big coincidence. “We are definitely seeing a return to the dress watch,” Crawford explains. “It’s a resurgence of more elegant timepieces that are more often than not vintage, from the likes of Cartier and Piaget.”
There are so many types of watches out there, from drivers and divers to pilots and GMTs, a few of which you’ll find included throughout the guide. As far as the specialized options go, driver’s watches feature an angular dial for easy reading when hands are on the wheel, while pilot’s watches boast ultimate legibility for when it gets too bright up there. All in all, while these hyper-specific variations put practicality at the forefront, there’s such an array of timepieces out there, you’re bound to find one thats right for you.
Below, we highlighted a variety of the best men’s watches that span various price points, styles, and functions.
Top Watches for Men of 2024
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BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $100
Timex Easy Reader 38mm Watch
Best for: Vintage aesthetic
Materials: Leather, brass
Colorways: Brown/Cream
Touted by the brand as “the world’s most perfect watch,” there’s no way to ignore the iconic Timex Easy Reader. The iconic accessory has featured all the same elements since the late ’70s, from its minimalist dial to an oiled, water-resistant leather strap. Plus, Timex is no stranger to pushing the needle in the affordable department, as its signature Indiglo dial lends a helping hand in the dark, serving as a simple on-off nightlight. That, in addition to its 30-meter water resistance, make it a worthwhile pick for under $100.

What testers say: “I’ve owned many Timex watches over the last 50 years and I’ve never been disappointed! High quality and a much better watch than other brands for the price you pay! Very happy with this purchase and buying directly from Timex the delivery was fast and the price was better than in a store! I will buy again in a few years after I wear this watch out”

Price upon publish date of this article: $59

BEST MEN’S WATCH UNDER $200
Q Timex Reissue Black Dial With Black/Green Bezel Bracelet Watch
Best for: A sure-bet, affordable investment
Materials: Stainless steel, acrylic crystal
Colorways: Black/ Green
In 2019, Timex revived this 1970s beloved classic timepiece. Today, the Q Timex 1979 Reissue watch features bi-color bezel with an attractive touch of green and luminance hands that glow against the black dial. This diver-inspired 38 mm option with a stainless-steel bracelet is ideal for guys who seek an everyday, low-cost men’s watch to elevate their wardrobe basics.

Price upon publish date of this article: $179

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $500
Citizen “Tsuyosa” Automatic Watch
Best for: Those looking for an affordable-yet-sophisticated sports watch
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Burgundy
Citizen’s eye-catching array of timepieces almost have no excuse for being as affordable as they are. The “Tsuyosa” Automatic watch with a 40mm case and stainless steel bracelet features a rich burgundy-hued dial that elevates the sports watch for both weekend wear and business hours. Whether you’re looking for an impressive gift or want to treat yourself to a special timepiece of quality craftsmanship with a price tag that won’t break the bank, this simply stunning watch is must-have for any man.

Price upon publish date of this article: $450

BEST WATCH FOR MEN ON AMAZON
G-Shock GM110BB-1A Watch
Best for: Durability
Materials: Resin band, stainless steel case, mineral crystal
Colorways: Black, Blue, Purple
Special features: 31 time zones, shock-resistance
G-Shock watches have long been known for their toughness and resistance to various conditions. The GM110BB-1A is no exception, as it is designed to withstand rugged use, including up to 200 meters of water resistance. Moreover, its shock-resistant resin case guarantees defense in any environment, while the sturdy mineral crystal is an affordable alternative to pricier examples with sapphire. These outdoor-ready functionalities, on top of features like a stopwatch and the ability to check different time zones, make this one of the best value men’s watches you can find.

Price upon publish date of this article: $189

BEST LUME WATCH
Tissot PRX Powermatic 80 Watch<br><a href=”https://www.bloomingdales.com/shop/product/tissot-prx-powermatic-80-watch-40mm?ID=5149828#”></a>
Best for: Luxury look for less
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Special features: Super-LumiNova dial and hands
The Tissot PRX is uncannily similar to the ever-so-iconic Audemars Piguet Royal Oak watch, deeming it the glitziest alternative you’ll find at a much lower price. With water resistance up to 330 feet, this sleek and slim tonneau-shaped style features the iconic ’70s look with modern self-winding movement. The on-trend 40 mm watch features a stunning green dial with the brand’s Super-LumiNova technology to give you clarity in any light condition with a bold appearance.

Price upon publish date of this article: $725

BEST UNDER $1000 WATCH FOR MEN
Bulova Limited-Edition Rat Pack Frank Sinatra Watch
Best for: Suave, classic elegance
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Black
Bulova’s limited-edition Rat Pack watch requires little-to-no explanation as to why it made our list of the best men’s watches of 2024. This beauty features a sleek, minimalist design with rich textural details for effortlessly cool, old Hollywood-style swagger. Inspired by legendary singers and menswear style icons like Dean Martin and Frank Sinatra (who wore Bulova timepieces throughout his career), this exceptional watch comes in special Rat Pack packaging that makes it even more tempting to add to your cart immediately — especially since only 5,000 of these spectacular pieces were created.

Price upon publish date of this article: $795

Hamilton Ventura XXL Bright Dune Limited-Edition Watch
Best for: men with an affinity for modern design.
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal, rubber
Colorways: Black
Though this timepiece’s look is quite futuristic, it happens to be an horological icon developed by Hamilton back in 1957. It was a favorite for Elvis Presley and was featured in the movie “Men in Black”. Now, The notable style has another blockbuster connection in the limited-edition Ventura XXL Bright Dune watch, which features a large, unusually-shaped 52mm stainless steel case design that seamlessly fuses with a black matte rubber strap to draw attention to the luminous blue dial for a striking effect.

Price upon publish date of this article: $1,750

BEST WATCH FOR MEN ON AMAZON
Orient Stainless Steel Japanese Watch
Best for: Water sports and activities
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal, leather
Colorways: Blue, Black, White
This option from Orient could’ve just as quickly been labeled the “best watch for the price,” because spending under $400 for something that looks so pristine would come as a surprise to many. The affordable day-date features the Japanese brand’s F6B24 automatic movement, making it one of the best automatic men’s watches on our list. It’s water resistant to 50 meters, to which its functionality stands out as much as its simple yet elevated aesthetic. When considering its price, look, and purpose, the only thing to complain about is that it’s not eligible for Prime shipping — but it’s worth the wait.

What testers say: “I could be not more pleased with this watch. The details on the face are clear and very well executed. It’s a beautiful watch and the coloring is perfect for the style and the match with the watch band. Aside from its looks, it keeps perfect time for up to two days. I could not be more pleased with the quality of the look and feel and regulation of this watch. Very much worth the cost.”

Price upon publish date of this article: $275.98

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $1,000
Citizen Tsuki-yomi A-T Watch
Best for: Those looking for an affordable Moonphase
Materials: Titanium, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Blue
Special features: Day-date functionality
$637.50$85025% Off
Citizen’s eye-catching array of timepieces almost have no excuse for being as affordable as they are, with the Tsuki-yomi A-T being a shining example — literally. Its “super titanium” encasement frames the brand’s signature H874 Eco-Drive movement, paving the way for over two years of power reserve. The stylish Moonphase watch also features a perpetual calendar and a whopping 24 time zones, giving you the world on the back of your hand.

Price upon publish date of this article: $850

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $2,000
Doxa Sub 300T Watch
Best for: Timeless look
Materials: Stainless steel case, crystal
Colorways: White, Orange, Yellow, Turquoise
Special features: Helium release valve
Watches of Switzerland Top-Quality Store Badge on Google: 4.8/5 stars
Doxa’s 3-hand dive watch is a refined spin on one of its most iconic examples: the SUB 300T Conquistador. Released under five years ago, the brand’s tribute to this ‘60s-era timepiece is machined from the highest quality 316L stainless steel and finished with a scratch-resistant crystal. Additionally, it features the original helium release valve and integrated dive time calculator, all the while offering up to 1,200 meters of waterproof prowess. Most of all, it’s available in seven striking colors that work with any look.

Price upon publish date of this article: $1,890

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $3,000
Oris Aquis Date Relief Watch
Best for: Daily wear
Materials: Stainless steel case, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Red, Black, Silver
Special features: Superluminova BG W9 hands
Mr Porter Top-Quality Store Badge on Google: 4.8/5 stars
Thanks to Oris’ signature automatic movement and variety of bands, the Swiss brand’s Aquis Date Relief is a great configurable diver at this price point. That said, it boasts a dependable 300m water resistance and sleek design, so it’s the best of both worlds. Moreover, the shining stainless steel case assures a sturdy, long-lasting piece. There are several dial options available, including silver, black, and a pop of red.

Price upon publish date of this article: $2,395

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $4,000
Bulova Astronaut Accutron Watch
Best for: Long power reserve
Materials: Stainless steel case, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Black
Special features: Day/Night bezel, Super Lumi-Nova hands
Bulova’s innovative Astronaut model first hit wrists in the late ‘60s, garnering tons of attention for its bezel’s unique Day/Night design. Decades later, the re-issue serves as the first release in a new line of Accutron Astronaut watches. This particular model boasts a highly functioning SW330 GMT movement with precisely 56 hours of power reserve. To finish it off, the black dial boasts a set of Super Lumi-Nova hands for quality legibility in any scenario.

What testers say: “Great design, flawlessly executed. One of my favorite watches.”

Price upon publish date of this article: $3,500

BEST-LOOKING MEN’S SMARTWATCH
Tag Heuer Connected Calibre E4 Stainless Steel & Leather Smart Watch
Best for: Athletes
Materials: Titanium, Steel, Rubber
Colorways: Black, Blue, Silver
Special features: Google-powered Wear OS, OLED Display
Saks Fifth Avenue Top-Quality Store Badge on Google: 4/5
There’s no denying how functional a smartwatch can be, and Tag Heuer’s option is ideal for those seeking something with a more classic look than an Apple Watch. The sleek Connected Calibre E4 features Google’s latest operating system, assuring a quicker device complemented by several remarkable features. These include a gorgeous OLED display, a whole day’s worth of battery life, and newly improved sports tracking modes, like up to five hours of golf assistance. As a result, it’s an excellent option to wear next time you lace up your golf shoes or long-distance running sneakers.

Price upon publish date of this article: $1,350

Omega Seamaster Diver 300M Watch
Best for: Diving and underwater activity
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Black, Turquoise
Special features: Super-LumiNova-filled indexes
Omega Top-Quality Store Badge on Google: 4.7/5 stars
As a proven leader in watch design, Omega’s catalog has never been anything to scoff at, and so has been the case for over 150 years. Often pitted against the Rolex Submariner, which many tout as the more prestigious option, the Seamaster’s history goes back further than the former (plus, it’s reportedly far more legible underwater). Lore aside, the Professional Diver 300M has only been around since the early ‘90s and has garnered a massive following since its release. The watch features a set of rhodium-plated hands and Super-LumiNova-filled indexes for enhanced readability. Above all else, it’s the far more affordable choice between the two.

Price upon publish date of this article: $8,600

BEST WATCH FOR MEN UNDER $5,000
Grand Seiko Heritage Watch
Best for: Dressy occasions
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Silver
Special features: 72-hour power reserve
Grand Seiko values perfection and precision, and the Heritage Watch is an abiding example. It boasts an impressive 72-hour power reserve, which is pretty dependable, considering you’re spending under $4,700 for this particular option. With unwavering attention to detail, this chic dress watch’s ergonomic curve allows it to sit comfortably on your wrist, while a tempered-blue seconds hand assists in legibility for the long haul. Function-wise, it’s water resistant up to 100 meters, similar to most examples in this price range.

Price upon publish date of this article: $3,150

Jaeger-LeCoultre Reverso Duoface Watch
Best for: Duoface dials
Materials: Stainless steel, calfskin
Colorways: Blue
Special features: Two dials
Mr Porter Top-Quality Store Badge on Google: 4.8/5 stars
JLC’s Reverso Tribute Duoface screams elegance and nostalgia, as it’s reminiscent of a classic 1930’s design. This remarkable timepiece is powered by a manual winding movement that animates two distinct dials, allowing for the display of two time zones and a practical day/night indicator. The front dial features blue hour markers with a sunray-brushed finish, while the reverse dial is silver with a signature “Velvety Clous de Paris” guilloché and applied hour markers. The finishing touch? A buttery calfskin band that’s interchangeable.

Price upon publish date of this article: $13,300

Rolex GMT-Master II Watch
Best for: Statement piece
Materials: Stainless steel, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Black, Yellow
Special features: Chromalight display, two-color bezel, 24-hour Cerachrom insert
The Rolex GMT-Master is most easily recognized by its stainless steel bezel band, one of the prestigious manufacturer’s many famous moves in the watch space. While its functionality takes center stage — most present in its 24-hour hand and Chromalight display for unwavering readability — this watch’s style factor and overall stature maintains Rolex’s supremacy. All things considered, it’s a worthy investment.

Price upon publish date of this article: $2,459

BEST CARTIER WATCH
Cartier Santos De Cartier Chronograph Watch
Best for: Luxury watch under $10K
Materials: Satin-brushed silver, sapphire crystal
Colorways: Black/Silver
Special features: Quickswitch interchangeable band system
Eternally revered jeweler Cartier has undoubtedly spent the past few years in a rejuvenation period, although it never went out of style. Since 1847, Cartier has been at the forefront of luxury accessories, and the century-old Santos de Cartier is one of the many examples that speaks for itself. With its user-friendly bracelet adjustments, stark hands, and seven-sided crown, there’s virtually no room for error when buying this timeless watch. Having said all that, keep in mind that it’s on the larger side.

Price upon publish date of this article: $7,900
What to Consider When Shopping for a Men’s Watch
  • Size: As put plainly by Crawford, “Size definitely matters.” Overall, you should think of a watch on your wrist the same you would pants around your waist. “You should always consider the diameter in relation to your wrist size. And specs aren’t always the most accurate way of knowing what will work on you,” Crawford says. Though, some people still prefer an oversized look, as she mentions, “there is no strict rule of thumb.”
  • Purpose: Since the rise of smartphones, a question that comes up often is, “Why even have a watch?” While it’s justified, many watches serve various purposes: Black-tie affairs, day-to-day wear, hyper-specific sports, and so much more. Ultimately, Crawford points out that “It’s also okay to wear watches as decoration.” And, whenever in doubt, they make a great gift for him.
  • Finishing and closure: The finishing and closure of your watch play a substantial role in its overall look and feel. Pay close attention to the case and band materials, with one common combination being stainless steel for durability and leather for a lightweight feel. As far as the closure goes, you can often choose between a traditional buckle or a modern deployment clasp. If you’re trying the watch on in person, make sure it’s easy to fasten and secure.
  • Price: Much like a leather designer wallet, a luxury bag, or sunglasses, price is crucial when you’re in the market for a watch. So, set a budget and stick to it. Luxurious timepieces are enticing, but countless affordable examples still assure nothing short of quality. It comes down to your priorities, such as brand reputation, craftsmanship, or specific features, and balance them with your price range. Also, don’t forget to account for peskier, long-term maintenance costs, like battery replacements or servicing, which will vary depending on the watch brand and model.
Best Brands for Men’s Watches: Top 10 Luxury Watch Brands for Men
  • Audemars Piguet: Think bold, intricate, and iconic designs that have been imitated countless times but never to completion. Audemars Piguet, particularly famous for the Royal Oak series, creates high-end watches for those who love refined, edgy styles and top-notch engineering. They’re far from cheap, but not the very most expensive, with entry-level models starting from roughly $25,000.
  • Cartier: Cartier has been at the helm of watch, jewelry, and accessory-making for well over a century. The French label’s sprawling catalog ranges from timeless classics to modern-chic, many of which celebrities have brought to light in recent years. Two primary examples include the Tank and Santos watches, which are each a respective icon in the world of luxury timepieces.
  • Girard-Perregaux: Through its blend of history and modernism, Girard-Perregaux designs timepieces are perfect for collectors and those who appreciate classic yet innovative designs. Its Laureato and Vintage 1945 collections are favorites among watch enthusiasts. While prices certainly vary, they offer models catering to different budgets.
  • IWCSchaffhausen : Renowned for its precision, IWC Schaffhausen offers a diverse range of high-quality watches that are suitable whether you’re into classic or contemporary styles. Typically, the Pilot’s Watch and Portugieser lines serve as the Swiss brand’s quintessential examples. You might need to dig deeper into your wallet for the latter, but the craftsmanship is worth it.
  • Jaeger-LeCoultre: As one of the few legitimate luxury horology houses in our guide, JLC consistently fuses ageless looks with cutting-edge innovation. Its Reverso and Master (among countless others) are a testament to fine craftsmanship. These watches are best suited for those who like a somewhat eccentric look without getting too gaudy. They offer a wide price range, so there’s something for every enthusiast.
  • Omega: Omega is ideal for anyone from watch lovers to genuine collectors. Whether tapping into the Space Race with its Speedmaster in 1957 or taking a deep dive wearing the aforementioned Seamaster, the manufacturer has seemingly seen every corner of the world and beyond. In addition to these world-famous examples, we’d be remiss to ignore the hype surrounding its BioCeramic collaboration with Swatch, its parent brand, which surprisingly took resale by storm.
  • Patek Philippe: With prices that typically start on the larger side of $30,000, it’s clear that this selection is intended for connoisseurs and serious collectors. Patek Philippe’s watches are parallel to heirlooms that ooze class and quality, with two essential collections being the Nautilus and Calatrava. Expect to make a significant investment, but, in return, indulge in exceptional craftsmanship.
  • Piaget: With its innovative, razor-thin movements, Piaget’s Altiplano and Polo collections are as elegant as they come. Like many luxury brands in this space, it’s been cranking out remarkable watches since the 19th century, and each holds its value to an eye-popping extent. The prices are higher, with the least expensive typically exceeding $10,000.
  • Rolex: It’s a name that no watch list would be complete without and a brand that simply speaks for itself. From the Submariner to the Daytona and Datejust, Rolex can cater to many audiences, with certain options starting from less than $10,000, while others sell at auction for over $15 million. Sure, budgets may vary, but you can always depend on nothing short of reputation and reliability when picking up a new (or well-worn-in) Rolex.
  • Vacheron Constantin: Since 1755, this luxury manufacturer has known no bounds, consistently releasing gorgeous watches that appeal to virtually anyone. Those loyal to the classics may prefer the Traditionnelle by default, while others may look to something like the Ègèrie moon phase line, which is a more whimsical option that the brand claims “recalls the delicate pleating of silk.” The price difference between these two is rather drastic, ranging from about $19,000 to as much as $107,000, but there are examples available across Vacheron’s catalog that start from around $12,000.
How We Selected the Best Watches for Men
Since 1910, WWD — often referred to as “the fashion bible” — has been the leading industry voice of authority for senior executives in the global women’s and men’s fashion, retail and beauty communities, while also informing the consumer media that cover the market. Today, WWD’s breaking news and trend coverage continue to be a trustworthy resource for both fashion insiders and consumers alike. Our shopping editors continue to uphold WWD’s editorial standards and values with quality, expert-backed product selections.

To compose a guide of the best men’s watches, we conducted thorough research to discover the horology world’s leading timepieces. This included conducting expert interviews, sifting through customer reviews, and emphasizing the factors that truly determine what makes a great watch. Additionally, we accounted for special features and quality craftsmanship, such as power reserve, water resistance, and case material.

WSJ : A Stock Market Rotation of Historic Proportions Is Taking Shape

A Stock Market Rotation of Historic Proportions Is Taking Shape
Few investors saw shift coming, many are puzzled by what is behind it

The stock market has suddenly turned upside down.

The market’s laggards have sprung to life in recent days, while the seemingly impervious “Magnificent Seven” group of technology stocks has stumbled.

Investors are even more focused than usual on corporate earnings as they try to anticipate what comes next.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks beat the S&P 500 over the seven days through Wednesday by the largest margin during a period of that length in data going back to 1986, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Russell 1000 Value index, meanwhile, notched its biggest lead over its growth-stock counterpart since April 2001, after the dot-com bubble burst.

Few investors saw the shift coming, and many are puzzled by what is behind it: Changing forecasts for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts? Expectations that Donald Trump will return to the White House? A technology trade that grew precariously crowded?

President Biden’s announcement Sunday that he wouldn’t seek re-election augmented the uncertainty and promised to refocus market attention on the presidential campaign.

Now, investors are scrambling to determine whether the reordering of winners and losers is a mere blip in an era of tech ascendancy—or if a sustainable shift is in fact under way.

“That’s what everybody is trying to answer,” said Raheel Siddiqui, senior investment strategist at Neuberger Berman.

The small-cap index rose 1.7% this past week, extending its 2024 advance to 7.8%, while the S&P 500 dropped 2%, trimming its gains to 15%.

As the Fed continued raising rates to tame inflation in 2023 and kept them elevated so far this year, investors rushed for the safety of mega-size companies that they bet could withstand economic uncertainty. Some of those same companies were primed to capitalize on potentially transformative advances in artificial intelligence.

Traders looked askance, meanwhile, at shares of smaller and more cyclical companies that tend to be particularly vulnerable to higher financing costs and to the risk that the central bank’s rate increases would tip the economy into recession.

The trade seemed unstoppable. Then on July 11, a surprisingly cool inflation report appeared to change everything. While investors had long expected the Fed to begin trimming rates, the data made them nearly sure that those rate cuts would begin in September. Believing the shift toward lower rates was almost upon them, investors raced to trim their winning bets on tech and lean into parts of the market likely to rally when rate cuts lower borrowing costs and boost the economy.

“Who benefits as rates come down? The answer is the ones who suffered the most when rates went up, and it’s basically the weaker players,” Siddiqui said.

When the Fed began its rate-increase campaign in March 2022, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which influences borrowing costs throughout the economy, was around 2.2%. Over the following months, the Fed raised rates and the yield climbed. In October 2023, it topped 5% for the first time in 16 years. Yields then fell as investors began to anticipate rate cuts but have risen in 2024 as inflation remained stubbornly persistent. The 10-year’s yield ended Friday at 4.238%.

Another force at work in markets: growing expectations that Trump will return to the White House after the November election, potentially increasing the odds of tax cuts and lighter regulation.

For the rotation of market leadership to persist, many believe that results and forecasts from individual companies will need to reinforce the view that smaller and more cyclical businesses are poised to perform.

Investors will look for clues this week in the quarterly reports of Google parent Alphabet GOOGL -0.02%decrease; red down pointing triangle and electric-vehicle maker Tesla TSLA -4.02%decrease; red down pointing triangle, along with nearly 300 companies in the small-cap Russell 2000. The following week will bring additional insights into Big Tech when Microsoft MSFT -0.74%decrease; red down pointing triangle, Meta Platforms META 0.20%increase; green up pointing triangle, Apple AAPL 0.06%increase; green up pointing triangle and Amazon.com AMZN -0.34%decrease; red down pointing triangle share results.

It isn’t just excitement that has driven the tech trade. The companies enjoy dominant positions in huge markets and operate at a scale that gives some insulation from economic fluctuations.

Together, the Magnificent Seven—Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Nvidia NVDA -2.61%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Tesla—reported a 52% increase in profits for the first quarter of this year, compared with a decline of 8.7% by the remaining 493 companies in the S&P 500, according to Ryan Grabinski, investment strategist at Strategas. Analysts expect the septet to report a 28% jump in earnings for the second quarter, while profits from the other S&P 500 stocks slip 1%.

Russell 2000 companies, meanwhile, are expected to report a nearly 18% rise in second-quarter profits, snapping a five-quarter streak of year-over-year declines, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data. Among the small-cap companies reporting this week are egg producer Cal-Maine Foods CALM -0.31%decrease; red down pointing triangle and printer maker Xerox.

“Earnings growth is going to be a crucial factor in determining whether this trend will continue—earnings growth of smaller names and earnings growth of the large-cap tech companies,” said Sumali Sanyal, senior portfolio manager of systematic global equities at Xponance.

Smaller companies tend to be more vulnerable than big ones to high interest rates. Thirty percent of the debt of the Russell 2000 is floating-rate, compared with 6% for the S&P 500, according to Goldman Sachs research from earlier this year. Historically, unprofitable companies make up a large chunk of the Russell 2000.

Those factors contributed to investors’ lack of enthusiasm for the group as the Fed kept rates high: The Russell 2000 inched up just 1% in the first six months of the year.

The biggest stocks drove the S&P 500’s rally. In the first half of the year, just one company—chip maker Nvidia, a darling of the AI trade—contributed 30% of the S&P 500’s 15% total return, including dividends, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Add in Microsoft, Amazon, Meta Platforms, Alphabet and Apple, and you’ve accounted for well over half of the index’s return.

The small number of stocks powering the S&P 500 has worried investors, making them question the sustainability of the rally.

“That’s really risky, and it’s nice to see this broadening,” said Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at AlTi Tiedemann Global. “That creates a healthier market, a more stable market, and gives more legs to the bull market, frankly.”

FT : Mysterious Russia-linked buyers amass LNG ‘dark fleet’

Mysterious Russia-linked buyers amass LNG ‘dark fleet’
Acquisition spree has driven up prices of older vessels as Moscow prepares for tighter trade restrictions

Mysterious buyers with suspected links to Russia have begun amassing dozens of vessels capable of carrying liquefied natural gas, in moves that suggest Moscow is expanding its “dark fleet” of energy tankers.

Shipping industry insiders say a clutch of previously unknown companies, largely registered in the United Arab Emirates, have rapidly acquired LNG vessels over the past year, driving up market prices, especially for the oldest ships.

The buying spree has echoes of how Moscow established a dark fleet of tankers to shuttle oil around the globe in the face of western sanctions, often using the UAE as a centre for energy trades. Although Russian LNG sales are less affected by western sanctions than oil, Moscow has been preparing for restrictions to tighten.

Since the second quarter of 2023, more than 50 LNG vessels have changed ownership to companies located in the UAE, according to Windward, a risk consultancy for shipowners and governments. Prior to that, such transactions were rare.


Ship tracking group Kpler’s risk and compliance team said the developments in the LNG tanker market pointed “to a complex network of maritime operations potentially linked to Russian interests”.

Some of the Dubai-based groups have opaque ownership structures that are similar to those operating Moscow’s dark fleet of oil tankers.

Some of the newly acquired LNG vessels are now navigating routes traditionally used for transporting gas from Russia, according to Kpler. Its ship-tracking data showed one vessel loading LNG from Yamal, Russia’s flagship export project that has yet to be hit by sanctions.

LNG has grown in importance for Russia’s wartime economy, providing valuable income after the loss of pipeline exports to Europe since its full- scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Both the EU and Asia, big markets for Russian LNG, have refrained from imposing a ban on imports to avoid disruption to the global gas market.

But the west has begun to take steps to restrict trade. In June, the EU approved restrictions that will forbid the unloading of Russian LNG from large icebreaking ships on to smaller vessels at EU ports, significantly limiting Russia’s options for distributing its gas globally.

Russia’s big LNG project, Arctic LNG 2, has also been placed under sanctions by the US, making it increasingly difficult to ship cargoes out of the project.

Traders say more opaque fleets could facilitate trading out of projects under sanctions, as well as boosting Russia’s operations in the market.

The increased buying has driven up the price of cheaper and less efficient LNG ships that are more than 15 years old, according to data from SSY, a shipbroker that facilitates vessel sales between owners. One LNG vessel built in 2007 sold for about $50mn in 2022, but this year, one was sold for $80mn.

“The market for old steam turbine LNG ships had declined with increasing environmental regulations, as well as dramatic improvements in LNG propulsion technology,” said Toby Dunipace, managing director of LNG at SSY. “[But we have] seen a resurgence in the value of these types of vessels. Some of the explanation could be that they are going to the dark fleet.”

The developments have alarmed those in the industry already concerned by a rapid increase in the number of ageing vessels trading restricted oil, used by shipowners moving Russian cargoes outside of the western sanctions regime. Such ships are less likely to be insured against disasters but are much more vulnerable to accidents and spillages.

Dunipace said SSY’s LNG team always puts new customers through a sanctions check, but recent developments have put the risks “much more in focus” as Russia prepares for future restrictions on LNG exports. He added that the broker has already had to turn down a handful of potential customers this year, including one last week, due to failed sanctions checks.

Sergey Vakulenko, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said it was a “no brainer” that Russia wanted to build up its LNG dark fleets, with pressure “increasing” on Russian LNG.

With the risk of market disruption set to be reduced in coming years as the US and Qatar produce more LNG, Russian projects such as Yamal LNG could come under sanctions, he said.

“I think that the Russian LNG operators think that the writing is already on the wall and are preparing for it,” he said. “The trade-off is simple. If the sanctions do not happen, they have their own fleet and use it, and if the sanctions do happen, they are not stuck and can continue their trade.”

FT : Can the solar industry keep the lights on?

Can the solar industry keep the lights on?
Global supply glut of panels is hurting producers but also helping installations


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Founded in Dresden in the early 1990s, Germany’s Solarwatt quickly became an emblem of Europe’s renewable energy ambitions and bold plan to build a solar power industry.

Its opening of a new solar panel plant in Dresden in late 2021 was hailed as a small victory in the battle to wrestle market share from the Chinese groups that have historically supplied the bulk of panels used in Europe.

Now, Solarwatt is preparing to halt production at the plant and shift that work to China.

“It is a big pity for our employees, but from an economic point of view we could not do otherwise,” said Peter Bachmann, the company’s chief product officer.

Solarwatt is not alone. A global supply glut has pummelled solar panel prices over the past two years, leaving swaths of Europe’s manufacturers unprofitable, threatening US President Joe Biden’s ambition to turn America into a renewable energy force and even ricocheting back on the Chinese companies that dominate the global market.

“We are in a crisis,” said Johan Lindahl, secretary-general of the European Solar Manufacturing Council, the European industry’s trade body.

Yet as companies in Europe, the US and China cut jobs, delay projects and mothball facilities, an abundance of cheap solar panels has delivered one significant upside — consumers and businesses are installing them in ever greater numbers.

Electricity generated from solar power is expected to surpass that of wind and nuclear by 2028, according to the International Energy Agency.

The picture underlines the quandary confronting governments that have pledged to decarbonise their economies, but will find doing so harder unless the historic shift from fossil fuels is both affordable for the public and creates new jobs.

Governments face a “delicate and difficult balancing act”, said Michael Parr, director of trade group Ultra Low Carbon Solar Alliance. They must “maximise renewables deployment and carbon reductions, bolster domestic manufacturing sectors, keep energy prices low and ensure energy security”.

The industry, which spans wafer, cell and panel manufacturers, as well as companies that install panels, employed more than 800,000 people in Europe at the end of last year, according to SolarPower Europe. In the US almost 265,000 work in the sector, figures from the Interstate Renewable Energy Council show.

“There is overcapacity in every segment, starting with polysilicon and finishing with the module,” said Yana Hryshko, head of global solar supply chain research at the consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

According to BloombergNEF, panel prices have plunged more than 60 per cent since July 2022. The scale of the damage inflicted has sparked calls for Brussels to protect European companies from what the industry says are state-subsidised Chinese products.

Europe’s solar panel manufacturing capacity has collapsed by about half to 3 gigawatts since November as companies have failed, mothballed facilities or shifted production abroad, the European Solar Manufacturing Council estimates. In rough terms, a gigawatt can potentially supply electricity for 1mn homes.

The hollowing out comes as the EU is banking on solar power playing a major role in the bloc meeting its target of generating 45 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030. In the US, the Biden administration has set a target of achieving a 100 per cent carbon pollution-free electricity grid by 2035.

Climate change is a global challenge, but executives said the solar industry’s predicament exposed how attempts to address it can quickly fracture along national and regional lines.

“There’s trade policy and then there’s climate policy, and they aren’t in sync,” said Andres Gluski, chief executive of AES, one of the world’s biggest developers of clean energy. “That’s a problem.”

Brussels has so far resisted demands to impose tariffs. It first levied them in 2012 but reversed that in 2018, partly in what proved a successful attempt to quicken the uptake of solar. Chinese imports now account for the lion’s share of Europe’s solar panels.

In May, the European Commission introduced the Net Zero Industry Act, legislation aimed at bolstering the bloc’s clean energy industries by cutting red tape and promoting a regional supply chain.

But Gunter Erfurt, chief executive of Switzerland-based Meyer Burger, the country’s largest solar-panel maker, is sceptical it will be enough.

“You need to create a level playing field,” he said. Meyer Burger would benefit if the EU imposed tariffs because it has operations in Germany.


Having begun in watchmaking, Meyer Burger shifted into the solar industry in 1983. Faced with widening losses, the group earlier this year announced it would shut a panel factory in the German city of Freiberg.

Instead, it set its sights on expanding production in the US, where the Inflation Reduction Act has offered subsidies and incentives as the Biden administration has sought to accelerate the growth of a clean energy industry.

The IRA has spurred almost $13bn of investment in solar manufacturing, more than six times the amount committed in the five years before the legislation, according to the Clean Economy Tracker and an FT analysis.

“I think smart decisions have been made in the US in regards to having understood this is the new oil,” said Erfurt. “Solar will by far dominate the new energy system.”

But Meyer Burger’s ambition has become a casualty of the collapse in prices, with the company delaying plans for a 2GW solar cell facility in Colorado Springs.

“We simply cannot expand even further into the United States with market conditions like this,” Ardes Johnson, head of Meyer Burger America, told a US International Trade Commission hearing in May.

Others are also retreating. Heliene, a Canadian manufacturer, this year pushed back plans to add new production for both cells and panels. A Bill Gates-backed Cubic PV scrapped a proposal to build a 10GW solar factory in February in the US, citing a “dramatic collapse” in prices.

As some companies freeze plans, the Biden administration has responded.

In May, it removed a tariff exemption for double-sided panels and lifted levies on Chinese imports of solar cells from 25 per cent to 50 per cent. Chinese companies now also face penalties if they are found to have dodged tariffs.

US imports of Chinese polysilicon for solar panels had already been hit by a 2021 ban on products made or sourced from China’s Xinjiang because of concerns over the use of forced labour.

Nevertheless, America’s solar power companies warn that the steps taken by the Biden administration this year will fail to provide enough protection.

In April, a coalition of manufacturers including First Solar, QCells and Meyer Burger filed a petition to the US International Trade Commission calling for new tariffs on imports of solar cells. They accuse Chinese solar companies of dumping cells in south-east Asia, the source of the bulk of US imports.

A solar panel manufactured in America using US-made cells costs 18.5 cents a watt, compared with 15.6 cents for a panel sourced in south-east Asia and just over 10 cents for one produced in China, according to estimates from BloombergNEF.

The possibility of victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election has also cast a shadow over the fledgling industry. At a recent rally, Trump vowed to impose an “immediate moratorium” on “Joe Biden mammoth Socialist bills like the so-called Inflation Reduction Act”.

With the European and US industries under pressure, a key uncertainty is whether China’s companies will stomach the current level of prices or scale back production to shore up their own finances. In March, China’s Longi, the world’s biggest solar company, cut 5 per cent of its 80,000-strong workforce.

“Chinese manufacturers are also struggling in the current low pricing environment,” said Marius Bakke, senior analyst at consultancy Rystad Energy.

Hryshko at Wood Mackenzie reckons that about 70 Chinese manufacturers have already reined in expansion plans, but cautions that others are pressing ahead.

Some “manufacturers are convinced they can make it”, she said, suggesting those in China may “know something we don’t” about plans for state support.

As Solarwatt prepares to outsource operations to China it has kept some machinery in Dresden, refusing to abandon hope that production may one day restart at the plant.

According to Bachmann, its fate ultimately lies with politicians.   

“They need to decide if we want to be completely dependent on Asia or if we want to be resilient at least for a certain percentage,” he said. “This decision needs to be taken.”

FT : Isolated Germany fears a second Trump term


At the German foreign ministry, diplomats are scrambling to prepare for a scenario that many had long thought implausible: Donald Trump’s return to the White House, an event that could have incalculable consequences for Germany and its place in the world.

Officials from the ministry’s North America desk, its Policy Planning Staff, the office of the co-ordinator for transatlantic co-operation and Germany’s embassy in Washington have formed a kind of informal crisis group to discuss what a Trump victory in November’s US presidential election would mean for Germany — and how Berlin should react.

The latest development on the group’s agenda: President Biden’s decision on Sunday to abandon his bid for re-election, following weeks of pressure from senior Democrats, and endorse vice-president Kamala Harris to succeed him.

Michael Link, Germany’s transatlantic co-ordinator, who is a member of the crisis group, says the move is a potential game-changer. “It reopens the race for the presidency and injects a fundamentally different dynamic into the election campaign,” he adds.

Yet many in Germany wonder how much impact Biden’s withdrawal will have on the contest, given the way polls have been moving in recent weeks. As a result, they are continuing to prepare for a Trump victory — a prospect that inspires deep unease in Berlin.

Germany is bracing itself for the return of a president with an even more unashamedly protectionist, America-first economic policy than during his first term, including a threat to impose a 10 per cent tariff on all imports, a move that could wreak huge damage on the German export-driven economy.

The anxiety intensified last week when Trump chose JD Vance as his running mate — an economic nationalist who is deeply sceptical of globalisation, Nato and US support for Ukraine.

“He has the same contempt for Germany and the EU as Trump does . . . but is even more isolationist than he is,” says Nils Schmid, foreign policy spokesman for Germany’s governing Social Democrats (SPD). “He’s also more radical than Trump in his desire to suspend all further US military aid to Ukraine.”

Germany is already increasingly alone in the world. To the east it faces a revisionist and expansionist Russia which could, officials in Berlin say, attack a Nato member state within a decade. Its western neighbour and closest ally France is mired in political uncertainty after snap elections yielded a hung parliament that has weakened President Emmanuel Macron.


Now it faces the prospect that senior figures in a new administration in Washington might want to start withdrawing some of the security guarantees that have underpinned Europe’s stability since Nato was formed in 1949. “It will take us years to adjust to that, through rearmament, through re-equipping our armies,” says one senior German official. “And there’s the risk that in the meantime we’ll be more vulnerable to Russian destabilisation.”

For Christoph Heusgen, former chancellor Angela Merkel’s foreign policy adviser, Germany risks getting trapped in a doom-laden paralysis that it has to snap out of — quickly.

“We can’t just be a deer in the headlights,” says Heusgen, who is now head of the Munich Security Conference. “We have to do our homework.”

For months, officials in Berlin held on to the hope that US President Joe Biden, who has proved a dependable ally, would win a second term. That hope faded after his disastrous performance in last month’s TV debate with Trump though senior officials continued to praise his mental acuity and leadership.

Observers say it has taken Germany too long to accept the increased probability of Trump’s return. “For a long time there was this streak of denialism,” says Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook, senior adviser at the Bertelsmann Stiftung, a non-profit think-tank, who has briefed German MPs on what a Trump presidency might mean. “But it’s gotten a lot more earnest in the past few weeks. They are even beginning to frame a game plan for a scenario where Trump hollows out American democracy and the separation of powers.”

Meanwhile, since the spring a unit of the German economy ministry has been trying to calculate the impact of possible Trump tariffs and re-examining the country’s supply chains to potentially substitute US high-tech and raw material products.

Some officials in Berlin think a Trump-Vance administration would not usher in a radical break with Biden’s foreign policy, and that it will remain committed to America’s traditional alliances. But most agree that US attention is bound to shift away from Europe to Asia, leaving Germany to take on a greater leadership role in its own neighbourhood.

That might be a lot to ask of Olaf Scholz, however, a weak chancellor facing an obstreperous coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and liberals who seem locked in perpetual internecine strife.

“Despite the enormous geopolitical challenges Europe faces, the current German government is mostly focused on resolving its own issues and trying to hold this coalition together,” says Clüver Ashbrook.

During Trump’s first presidential term, Germany was one of his favourite punching bags.

Through his ambassador to Berlin, Ric Grenell — widely touted as a future Secretary of State under a re-elected President Tump — he routinely assailed Berlin for its energy dependency on Russia and its failure to spend 2 per cent of its GDP on defence, a target set at a Nato summit in 2014 which the long-serving chancellor Angela Merkel never met.

When she visited Trump in Washington shortly after he took office, he famously told her, “Angela, you’re terrific, but you owe me a trillion dollars”.

Trump in his first term imposed punitive tariffs on EU imports of steel and aluminium and also threatened more tariffs on vehicle imports, a move that would have spelt disaster for the German car industry.


An existential angst spread in Berlin. Trump seemed to be attacking the very foundations of Germany’s successful business model and its postwar prosperity — strong exports, open borders and free trade, all cultivated beneath the cast-iron security umbrella provided by the US.

But in the past few years, Germany has tried to fix many of the issues that Trump castigated it for — an effort that could assuage his hostility towards Berlin, experts say.

In the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, its imports of Russian gas dwindled to nothing and it quickly found substitute supplies, including vast amounts of liquefied natural gas from the US.

Germany also adapted its policy on China, which US officials had long derided as too trusting and naive. Reflecting the new scepticism, Berlin earlier this month ordered telecoms companies to remove all Chinese components from “core” facilities in its domestic 5G network by 2026.

“We are much better on China now,” says the SPD’s Schmid. “We’ve adopted measures against Huawei and we are de-risking our relationship with Beijing, as is the EU.”

The economy is also better protected against a potential US-initiated trade war, Schmid adds, with an “active industrial policy and subsidies for battery factories and microchip production” that are strengthening Germany’s — and the EU’s — strategic autonomy.

In particular, Germany has sought to counter the accusation that it is freeloading on American security guarantees — a point rammed home by Vance during his speech to the Republican Convention in Milwaukee last week, where he said there would be “no more free rides for nations that betray the generosity of the American taxpayer”.


It has sought to do that by taking a more proactive role in European defence. “We have a certain responsibility — by virtue of our geographical position, the size of our population and our economy. And we’re showing that we’re able to shoulder that responsibility — especially in regard to Ukraine,” says Link, the transatlantic co-ordinator.

The change in Germany’s military posture — triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine that Scholz described as a “Zeitenwende” or watershed moment — has impressed its allies.

It has rebuilt the Bundeswehr’s capabilities with a new €100bn investment fund and this year it finally reached Nato’s 2 per cent spending goal. Earlier this month Scholz said Germany would increase its core defence budget, from €53.3bn in 2025 to €80bn by 2028.

Germany will also station a brigade of 5,000 personnel in Lithuania — its first permanent foreign deployment since the second world war — and has promised to provide Nato with 35,000 troops from next year to boost the alliance’s deterrence and defence. The country has also bought 35 F-35 fighter jets and 60 Chinook helicopters from the US — perhaps in the hope of propitiating a future president Trump.

In addition, Germany has teamed up with France, Italy and Poland to develop a new ground-launched “deep precision strike” cruise missile with a range of more than 500km, part of efforts to fill a gap in European arsenals exposed by the war in Ukraine. Until the new missile comes online, the US has pledged to deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles to Germany with a significantly longer range than current land-based weapons in Europe, a decision German officials are confident Trump won’t reverse.

Germany is also doing more to support Ukraine, as if preparing for a time when a future President Trump reduces aid to the country.

A new Nato structure announced this month, the Nato Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, will be set up in the central German city of Wiesbaden to oversee the training of Ukrainian soldiers; help the long-term development of its army; and co-ordinate, transfer and repair weapons donated by the west.

“[It] shows how important Germany is when it comes to progressing all our different support activities for Ukraine,” Scholz said.

Yet there are many who question whether German security policy has really changed that much. “This approach of promising a ‘Zeitenwende’ and then continuing as normal has reached its objective limits,” says Friedrich Merz, leader of the opposition Christian Democrats (CDU). “It just doesn’t work.”

Scholz’s critics point to a recent deal on the 2025 budget that enraged many in the military. Boris Pistorius, defence minister, had demanded €6.7bn in extra military spending, and only got €1.2bn.

Security experts have also been left frustrated by the lack of detail on how future military expenditure will be financed. “The government says the defence budget will have to rise by €25bn-€30bn from 2028 but has avoided spelling out how we achieve that,” says Heusgen. “It’s basically said that is a problem for its successor. They don’t dare go near it.”

Regardless of who wins the US election this year, says Merz, Germany and Europe “will have to do much more for our own defence”.

“Some 63 per cent of the Nato budget is paid by America, 27 per cent by EU member states,” says Merz, who opinion polls suggest could succeed Scholz as chancellor next year. “It’s been clear for years now that such an imbalance is unsustainable. And now we’re having to face reality.”

Vance made the same point during a panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference in February. Berlin reaching the 2 per cent goal was all very well, he argued, but “how many mechanised brigades could Germany field tomorrow? Maybe one.”

“The American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy,” he told conference delegates.

Many of Scholz’s critics also doubt whether Germany can take on a leadership role on Ukraine if Trump does return to the White House. Some allies have been frustrated by Scholz’s prevarication over weapons supplies to Kyiv, and his refusal to provide fighter jets or Taurus cruise missiles.

“I think Germany has fallen short, it has failed to fulfil its potential,” says Heusgen. “While it has gradually become the second-biggest supplier of military assistance to Ukraine, its approach has often been reactive. You saw it with the weapons supplies to Ukraine — it usually said no, and then changed its mind.”

Beyond the investment in defence and a new approach to China, there are other ways Germany has been preparing for Trump redux.

Ministers have invested huge effort in nurturing ties with leading Republicans who might have influence over a future Trump White House — or who could moderate his more isolationist tendencies.

Link, who is responsible for cultivating the transatlantic relationship, has spent the past two years travelling to Republican-led states, meeting governors and senators “and trying to figure out what our common interests are”.

His focus has been on states like Texas and Georgia where German companies have made large investments. “While many of these Republican governors support Trump, they ultimately care first and foremost about their own states . . . and none of them want a trade war with Europe,” he says.

German conservatives also like to point out how much they have in common with Trump. Jens Spahn, a senior Christian Democrat MP and former health minister, lists the similarities: most mainstream parties in Germany agree with Trump on the need to contain China, root out unfair trade practices, prevent Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb, defend Israel’s right to exist and restrict irregular immigration.

“These are all issues that also preoccupy us,” says Spahn, speaking to the Financial Times during a visit to the Republican Convention. “And they’re all things we can work on with the future US government, together with our friends in Europe.”

Spahn acknowledges that the Scholz government is doing a good job of reaching out to Republicans. “But they do it in a rather shamefaced way,” he says. “My impression is that none of them really want to be seen with Republicans.”

He also criticises Scholz for backing Biden to the hilt and for not calling Trump after the recent attempt on his life, as Justin Trudeau of Canada and the UK’s Sir Keir Starmer did, although he did publicly condemn the attack. “It’s not in Germany’s national interest for the chancellor to commit himself so clearly to one candidate,” Spahn adds.

Scholz himself is putting a brave face on the increased likelihood of Trump winning the election. Asked at the Nato summit earlier this month whether he was worried about what it would mean for the future of the transatlantic alliance, he said a key source of Nato’s strength was that its members were democracies with regular elections.

“The stability and purpose of Nato’s activities are not going to be endangered by a change of government here and there,” he added.