The biggest monthly selloff in global stocks since 2022 moderated after the US gave Iran more time to reach a deal on ending the month-long war.
US equity-index futures extended gains to 0.5%, signaling a rebound after the underlying gauges slumped to their lowest level since September. That came after President Donald Trump delayed his deadline for Iran to agree to a ceasefire deal by 10 days. European shares were also set to open 0.6% higher on Friday. Asian equities pared earlier losses to drop 0.5%. The MSCI All Country World Index is still headed for its worst month in more than three years as the Middle East conflict stokes concerns about inflation and lower economic growth. Australian and New Zealand bond yields pushed higher, following similar moves in Treasuries in the US session. The selloff was worse in Japan, where the 2-year yield hit its highest level since 1995 and longer-dated equivalents surged. European bond futures also dipped. Hurting the sentiment was Brent crude paring losses of as much as 2.7% and trading little changed at about $108 a barrel. The latest bout of whipsaw trading extends a month of war-driven swings, with investors uncertain about whether hostilities are set to ease or escalate. Traders are closely watching the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for Middle East oil flows that remains effectively shut, driving crude oil higher and adding to inflation pressures. Trump said talks with Iran were going “very well.” He also said he would extend his pledge to refrain from attacks on the country’s energy sites, offering a brief calm to global energy markets jolted by the conflict. Iran responded to the ceasefire proposal through intermediaries, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported, and is now awaiting a reply. Tehran has a string of conditions for ending the conflict, one of which is a guarantee that the US and Israel won’t resume their attacks.
The markets were caught off guard by the initial US and Israeli strikes at the end of February, which came in the middle of talks that were ostensibly going well, but were accompanied by a huge US military buildup in the Middle East, Kyle Rodda at Capital.com wrote in a note. Asia’s benchmark share index has dropped 10% this month, while gold slumped about 15%. Brent crude has jumped about 48% since the war started at the end of February.
Higher oil prices have fueled inflation concerns, raising the prospect that policymakers may keep interest rates elevated or even tighten further. That’s reflected in Treasuries, with the benchmark 10-year note yielding 4.42% on Friday, up about 48 basis points from its Feb. 27 close. In other corners of the market, the yen strengthened against the dollar after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the authorities can take measures against foreign-exchange moves, including bold actions. Bitcoin traded below $69,000. Sentiment remained fragile, and some of the optimism was damped after the Wall Street Journal reported the Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a US insurance program meant to boost shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will begin soon, a move that may help revive flows of much of the world’s oil and gas supplies. The near-total closure of the waterway has meant millions of barrels of lost daily oil output, while pushing up product prices from diesel to jet fuel. The United Arab Emirates told allies that it would participate in a multinational maritime task force intended to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as it lobbies to form a coalition to ensure shipping is able to pass through the vital Gulf waterway, the Financial Times reported. US After Hours President Trump has extended pause on attacking Iran energy facilities to April 6, according to CNBC; U +13.8% sharply higher after raising guidance; AGX +9.8% higher on earnings; ACOG -8.1% lower on earnings.
Nikkei -0.23% Hang Seng +0.67% CSI +0.49% Shanghai +0.57% Shenzen +1.13%
Eur$ 1.1526 CNH 6.92 CNY 6.91 JPY 159.65 GBP 1.3338 CHF 0.7958 RUB 81.6267 TRY 44.4598 WTI$ 94 -0.47% Gold 4;466 +1.95% BTC 68,756 -0.30% ETH 2;065 +0.08%
S&P +0.44% Nasdaq +0.45% EuroStoxx +0.29% FTSE +0.27% Dax +0.37% SMI -0.50%
Macro :
- SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX CLOSES DOWN 4.8%, MOST SINCE DECEMBER
- Barclays Sees S&P 500 Jump Up to 5% on Iran Deal: Equity Insight
- Millennium and Engineers Gate Wind Down Hedge Fund Partnership
- IDF Says Struck Ballistic Missiles Production Sites Across Iran
- UK February Vehicle Output Slumps as Exports Weaken: SMMT
Keep an eye on :
Keep an eye on :
- ABI BB : AB InBev Says Chairman Barrington to Retire
- AEIN GY : Allgeier meets its earnings guidance for 2025 and is strengthening its focus on AI-based platform
- AMZN US : Amazon AI Chip Product Leader Departs
- Anthropic IPO : Claude AI Maker Anthropic Said to Weigh IPO as Soon as October - The Information
- AAPL US : Apple Gives iPhone Designers Rare Bonuses to Fight AI Poaching
- AAPL US : Apple to Open Up Siri to Rival AI Assistants in Strategy Shift
- ATG LN : Auction Technology Group Shares Up 5.4%, Most in Almost 10 Weeks
- AVCT LN : Avacta Group Offers GBP10 million Shares at GBp10/Share
- BARC LN : German BaFin Fined Barclays €1.65m For Late Notifications
- BF/B US : Pernod and Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman Confirm Merger Talks
- 1211 HK : BYD ; BYD Stock Rebound Gathers Pace as Oil Shock Drives EV Sales Boom
- CAI AV : CA Immo FY Dividend per Share Misses Estimates
- DBV FP : DBV Tech FY Net Loss $147M Vs. Loss $113.9M Y/y
- DEZ GY : KKCG Maritime Raises Bid for Ferretti to €3.90/Share
- EVD GY : CTS Eventim FY Revenue Beats Estimates
- FGR FP : Eiffage Boosts Stake in Getlink to 29.40%
- EXA FP : Exail Extends Declines Following CEO’s Discount Share Sale
- YACHT IM : KKCG Maritime Raises Bid for Ferretti to €3.90/Share
- FLOW NA : Flow Traders 1Q Positively Impacted by Volatility, Volumes
- GET FP : Eiffage Boosts Stake in Getlink to 29.40%
- GOOGL US : Google: Users Can Bring Memory From Other AI Apps to Gemini
- HBR LN : Harbour Energy Holder Offers ~60m Shares: Terms, placed @ 273p:share
- HTZ US : Hertz, Avis Soar as Rental Demand Surges on Airport Chaos
- IBAB BB : Ion Beam Sees 2026 Adjusted Ebit at Least EU32M
- JUN3 GY : Jungheinrich Sees 2026 Ebit EU380M to EU450M, Est. EU421.5M
- JUN3 GY : Jungheinrich to Propose Andreas Umbach as New Board Chairman
- MA US : Mastercard Seeks to Sell Real-Time Payments Unit: FT
- MRL SM : Merlin’s Share Sale Over 10 Times Covered, Excluding Anchors
- NETC DC :Netcompany Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Margin Forecast
- NFLX US : Netflix Raises Subscription Prices By as Much as $2 a Month
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Says Awiqli Approved by US FDA
- NOVOB DC : Ozempic Maker Says AI Agents Are Shortening Its Clinical Trials - The Information
- Open AI : OpenAI Surpasses $100 Million Annualized Revenue From Ads Pilot, The revenue milestone comes six weeks after the ads pilot was announced. The Information
- Orbital Data Center IPO : Orbital Data-Center Startup Aetherflux Raising New Financing at $2 Billion Valuation -- WSJ
- RI FP : Pernod Said to Weigh Deal for Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman
- RI FP : Pernod Said to Weigh Deal for Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman
- PHARM NA : Pharming Group Gets Positive Opinion for Joenja Leniolisib in EU
- GLE FP : SocGen Cuts Some Backup Trading Floors to Allow Remote Work: FT
- SOF BB : Sofina FY Net Asset Value per Share EU305.77
- Space X IPO : SpaceX IPO Could Reserve Up To 30% for Retail Investors: Reuters
- SBUX SS : Starbucks’ Niccol Hasn’t Repeated Chipotle Stock Magic
- MSTR US : Saylor Says Retail Owns 80% of Strategy’s High Yield Securities
- TMV GY : TeamViewer unveils AI-driven Tia Reporting at Gartner Digital Workplace Summit
- TTE FP : Total to Avoid Force Majeure on Gas Deals Despite Gulf Turmoil
- TUI1 GY : Germany's TUI Names New Operations Chief
- WUW GY : W&W Sees 2026 Net Income EU120M to EU150M
- YUBICO SS : Yubico Publishes 1Q After Information Disclosed; Shares Fall
>>> Up
* Air Liquide Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Atlantic Lithium Raised to Neutral at Macquarie; PT 16.56 pence
* Bellway Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 2,380 pence
* Berkeley Raised to Buy at BofA
* Billerud Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 93 kronor
* Brown-Forman Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT $28
* Brown-Forman Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $27
* BT PT Raised to 175 pence from 140 pence at Citi
* Derwent London Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays
* Eni Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 28 euros
* Evonik Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 18 euros
* Intesa Sanpaolo Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 6.90 euros
* JM Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 140 kronor
* Knorr-Bremse Raised to Buy at BofA
* Marks Electrical Group Raised to Buy at Cavendish; PT 55 pence
* MONY Group Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 230 pence
* National Bank of Greece Raised to Buy at Alpha Finance
* Novonesis Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn
* Savills Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 1,040 pence
* Savills Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 1,040 pence
* Securitas Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 173 kronor
* Vallourec PT Raised to 29 euros from 23.60 euros at Bernstein
>>> Down
>>> Down
* Banco BPM Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 14.30 euros
* Barry Callebaut Cut to Underweight at Barclays
* Beiersdorf Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 90 euros
* Boliden Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 580 kronor
* Corbion Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 20 euros
* Elisa Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 39 euros
* Future Plc Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 466 pence
* Galp Cut to Underperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 20.50 euros
* Givaudan Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 3,050 Swiss francs
* Lanxess Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 20 euros
* Ontex Cut to Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 3.70 euros
* Saipem Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 3.60 euros
* SKF Cut to Underperform at BofA
* Syensqo Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 50 euros
* TotalEnergies Cut to Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 80 euros
* Yubico Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 35 kronor
>>> Initiation
* Yubico Cut to Hold at ABG; PT 35 kronor
>>> Initiation
* Arjo Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 27 kronor
* Bittium Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 40 euros
* BPER Banca Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 13.70 euros
* Cereno Scientific Rated New Buy at Stifel; PT 20 kronor
* Electrolux Reinstated Neutral at Goldman; PT 65 kronor
* Meko Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 75 kronor
* Meko Rated New Neutral at SB1 Markets; PT 75 kronor
* Monte Paschi Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 10.10 euros
* Novagold Resources Rated New Speculative Buy at Canaccord
* SEB Reinstated Buy at Goldman; PT 64 euros
>>> Call
* Barclays Sees S&P 500 Jump Up to 5% on Iran Deal: Equity Insight
>>> Call
* Barclays Sees S&P 500 Jump Up to 5% on Iran Deal: Equity Insight
* Morgan Stanley Favors Upstream in Chemicals, BASF Now Top Pick
* Netcompany Set to Gain Following Margin Upgrade: Morgan Stanley
* Vallourec PT Lifted at Bernstein on North America Inflection
- Legal & General (LGI TH) +3.2%
- CTS Eventim (EVD TH) +3.1%
- CTS Eventim FY Normalized Ebitda Meets Estimates
- Novo (NOV TH) +2.7%
- Novo Nordisk Says Awiqli Approved by US FDA
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) +2.3%
- Evonik (EVK TH) +1.6%
- Evonik Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 18 euros
- Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) +1.3%
- Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.2%
- Boliden (BWJ TH) +1.2%
- CSG NV (NW0 TH) +1%
- Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +1%
- OMV (OMV TH) -1%
- Beiersdorf (BEI TH) -1.5%
- Beiersdorf Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 90 euros
- Elisa (EIA TH) -1.6%
- Elisa Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan on Competitive Risks
- Aker BP (ARC TH) -1.7%
- BP (BPE5 TH) -1.7%
Anthropic Discusses Going Public as Soon as the Fourth Quarter
The Takeaway
- Anthropic discusses IPO as soon as Q4, with bankers expecting over $60 billion raise.
- Anthropic’s annualized sales doubled to $19 billion in the first two months this year.
- Bankers expect Anthropic to list before OpenAI due to market preference for its focus.
Anthropic executives have discussed an initial public offering of the AI firm’s shares as soon as the fourth quarter this year, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bankers vying to take Anthropic public expect the company to raise more than $60 billion in the initial public offering, said some of the people. That could be the second-biggest such deal after SpaceX, which is expected to raise as much as $75 billion in an IPO as soon as this summer. The figures won’t be decided until just before the offerings.
Companies typically sell between 10% and 25% of their total equity in an IPO, so bankers typically base their estimates of how much money a company will raise in an IPO by predicting the company’s estimated valuation at the time of the offering, plus other factors such as investor demand.
While Anthropic is discussing more specific timing for an IPO, such planning can change on a dime and can also be influenced by macroeconomic events. The company, last valued at $350 billion in a financing last month, could still decide not to go public at all. But it is taking concrete steps toward an offering, such as working with law firm Wilson Sonsini, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Archrival OpenAI is also gearing up to go public as soon as possible, and CEO Sam Altman has said privately he would prefer to list the ChatGPT maker’s share before Anthropic goes public, according to people with knowledge of the comments. The company is close to raising $120 billion at a $730 billion valuation before the financing, so it isn’t under financial pressure to list its shares, said a person with knowledge of the situation.
The debut of OpenAI and Anthropic shares would be a landmark moment in the AI boom, which has boosted the shares of major cloud and chip firms that cater to OpenAI, Anthropic and other key developers. Anthropic has experienced staggering revenue growth this year; annualized sales more than doubled to $19 billion during the first two months this year, on the strength of its automated coding tools, and is closing its revenue gap with OpenAI.
Meanwhile, OpenAI, powered by subscription sales from ChatGPT, topped $25 billion in annualized sales last month. Anthropic in December projected its business would generate cash as soon as 2028 and OpenAI, earlier this quarter, projected positive free cash flow by 2030, though OpenAI previously projected it would burn more than $200 billion before then.
Anthropic, in contrast, previously projected—optimistically—that it would burn around $22 billion before generating positive free cash flows. (Read more about each companies’ finances here, here and here.)
Bankers and lawyers who work on IPOs largely expect Anthropic to list shares before OpenAI does, as they believe public market investors would favor Anthropic’s focus on selling to developers and enterprises rather than consumers and its shorter projected path to profitability.
IPO advisers say that as Anthropic and OpenAI discuss their potential offerings with regulators, their differing methods of booking revenue related to cloud providers that resell their AI models will almost certainly come up, as will the ways the companies have projected unprecedented revenue growth and server costs.
The two companies’ IPO timing could heavily depend on the broader market conditions. The Iran war and rising oil prices have prompted worries about increased inflation and lower consumer spending, which could impact IPO activity and when ultimately the two AI labs go public. The Financial Times previously reported an Anthropic IPO could happen this year.
OpenAI has had informal conversations with banks Goldman Sachs, which advised OpenAI on its restructuring process last fall with veteran banker Michael Klein, and Morgan Stanley, said a person familiar with the discussions.
Both companies are competing to win over coveted business customers owned by private equity firms. Anthropic is in talks to form a joint venture with private equity firms including Blackstone and Hellman & Friedman and Permira, according to people familiar with the discussions. OpenAI also discussed a similar joint venture with private equity firms TPG, Advent International, Bain Capital and Brookfield Asset Management.
DAX:
- SAP (SAP TH) +1.2%
- Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.1%
MDAX:
- RENK Group (R3NK TH) +3.3%
- Deutz (DEZ TH) +2.4%
- German Engine Maker’s Defense Pivot to Yield Revenue Jump
- CTS Eventim (EVD TH) +2%
- CTS Eventim FY Normalized Ebitda Meets Estimates
- Evonik (EVK TH) +1.9%
- Evonik Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 18 euros
- Puma (PUM TH) +1.4%
- Jungheinrich (JUN3 TH) -2.9%
- Jungheinrich Sees 2026 Ebit EU380M to EU450M, Est. EU421.5M
- Lanxess (LXS TH) -3.5%
- Lanxess Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 20 euros
SDAX:
- Medios (ILM1 TH) +3.4%
- Kontron (KTN TH) +2.5%
- ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.4%
- Sixt (SIX2 TH) +1.4%
- Tonies SE (TNIE TH) -1.2%
OpenAI Surpasses $100 Million Annualized Revenue From Ads Pilot
The revenue milestone comes six weeks after the ads pilot was announced.
OpenAI has surpassed $100 million in annualized revenue from its ChatGPT ads business, six weeks after the pilot was announced, according to a spokesperson. That revenue has been generated from the less than 20% of U.S.-based ChatGPT Free and Go users who are shown ads on a daily basis today, though around 85% of Free and Go users are eligible to see ads, the spokesperson said.
OpenAI has expanded to more than 600 advertisers, and is on track to launch self-serve advertiser access in April, they said. The company is currently focused on improving ad relevance, with less than 7% of ads rated by users as “low relevance,” as well as ensuring that ads don’t negatively impact user trust, the spokesperson said.
The company announced earlier this week that it had brought on former Meta ad executive Dave Dugan to lead ads sales. It’s now exploring expanding ads into other geographic regions including Canada, Australia and New Zealand, the spokesperson said.
Ads represent an important source of revenue as the company gears up to go public. Executives have told investors that the company expects to generate more than $17 billion from consumers using ChatGPT in 2026, including making money from free users through advertisements.