>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 30th of September 2024

>>> Up
* Accenture Raised to Buy at TD Cowen; PT $400
* Hensoldt Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Nordic Semiconductor Raised to Buy at SEB Equities
* Pandox Raised to Buy at ABG; PT 220 kronor
* Trigano Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* U.S. Bancorp Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $57
* Zions Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $54

>>> Down
* Airtel Africa Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 130 pence
* Energean Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,000 pence
* Hella Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 72 euros
* Hoegh Autoliners Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 150 kroner
* Hufvudstaden Cut to Sell at ABG; PT 130 kronor
* JPMorgan Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $224
* Juventus Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Keywords Studios Cut to Neutral at Cantor; PT 2,450 pence
* Porsche SE Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 45 euros
* Smiths Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,825 pence

>>> Initiation
* Aperam Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 35 euros
* Hoist Finance Rated New Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 95 kronor
* Outokumpu Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 4.50 euros
* Puig Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 25.65 euros

>>> Call
* Goldman, BlackRock Warn Europe’s Stock Rally Faces Tough Hurdles

>>> What to look at today - 30th of september 2024

Equities in China and Hong Kong were standout gainers on Monday after Beijing’s latest measures to tackle its property crisis. Stocks elsewhere in Asia declined with Japan’s benchmark plummeting. The CSI 300 index was poised for its biggest daily gain in 16 years, and both iron ore and Chinese developer stocks surged after three major cities eased rules on housing purchases. A slump in Japanese stocks contributed to a decline in the MSCI Asia Pacific gauge, after the victory of Shigeru Ishiba in the Japanese ruling party’s leadership race wrong footed investors.  European and US stock futures fluctuated between gains and losses. China’s “government does seem more intent on following through on measures to get the economy firing again, so it does feel slightly more promising than previous attempts,” said Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management. “So the rally might have some more legs than previous times and we will be waiting for more announcements to get more conviction around the trajectory of the Chinese economy and stock market.” Investors are heading into the final quarter of the year as the outlook for financial markets improves following China’s stimulus measures and as central banks from Indonesia to Europe and the US begin cutting interest rates to support growth.  Even so, China’s factory activity continued to contract while the services sector slowed in September, data on Monday showed. The country’s lackluster economic performance has also left its mark on Europe, one if its biggest trading partners. All three major German carmakers — Volkswagen AG, Mercedes-Benz Group AG and BMW AG — have warned about their profit this month.  Chinese markets will be closed for the first seven days of October for a public holiday. Hong Kong and Korea exchanges will be shut on Tuesday.  In Austria, traditional political powers are pledging to block the far-right Freedom Party from forming a government following Sunday’s national elections that in its historic victory, marking the latest effort to stem the rising tide of populism in Europe. In Japan, Ishiba’s new administration will pursue continuity in economic, monetary and foreign policy, with the role of finance minister going to Katsunobu Kato, a former government spokesman, according to local media.  The yen pared the previous session’s gains, while hopes for Chinese stimulus lifted both the Australian and New Zealand dollar.  Tensions in the Middle East were at risk of escalating once again, however, after Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in Beirut. Oil was steady on Monday, with the market waiting to see how Iran will respond. This week, traders will be paying close attention to Eurozone inflation and manufacturing activity data are due before the US jobs report on Friday that will help assess the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts into year-end. 

Nikkei -5.02% Hang Seng +3.82% CSI +7.91% Shanghai +7.45% Shenzen +10.35%

Eur$ 1.1167 CNH 6.9910 CNY 7.0127 JPY 141.73 GBP 1.3391 CHF 0.8413 RUB 93.3251 TRY 34.1939 WTI$ 68.83 +0.95% Gold 2,659 +0.03% BTC 64,493 -2.04% ETH 2,634 -1.05%

S&P -0.03% Nasdaq -0.19% EuroStoxx -0.13% FTSE -0.16% Dax -0.30% SMI -0.33%

Macro :
- Hedge Funds Rotate Out of Tech Into Materials on China Stimulus
- Lombard Odier Dumped Entire China Allocation, Won’t Buy Rebound
- Equities May Face Setback as They Confront US Payrolls: In Play
- Israel Is Downgraded by Moody’s Again as War Takes Economic Toll
- Goldman, BlackRock Warn Europe’s Stock Rally Faces Tough Hurdles
- EU Technology Derating May Not Last as AI, Rates Provide Support

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WSJ : Americans Are More Reliant Than Ever on Government Aid

Americans Are More Reliant Than Ever on Government Aid
An aging population and economic distress raise dependence on federal and state support. Here’s why that matters for the 2024 election.

Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.

The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.

For its analysis of government spending, EIG used a government definition of income that includes spending on programs that Americans pay into, such as Medicare and Social Security. Another major government health program—Medicaid—is also counted.

The analysis also includes unemployment insurance, food stamps, the earned income tax credit, veterans benefits, Pell grants, Covid-era payments and other income support. States help pay for some of these programs, such as Medicaid, but the federal government covers roughly 70% of the total cost.

The EIG analysis doesn’t include other ways government spending floods into corners of America, such as through farm subsidies or military bases.

This spending accounts for a big and growing share of the national debt. But this year’s presidential candidates, Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, have said little about reining it in. In fact, both have offered plans that would add to the costs. Trump would end taxes on Social Security benefits. Harris would expand the Earned Income Tax Credit for lower-income workers and extend Affordable Care Act subsidies that are due to expire, among other proposals.

The data help explain why. Though counties that rely significantly on government spending tend to be small, they are still home to nearly 22% of the U.S. population.

The growth in these counties has been far more concentrated in places that vote for Republicans or have shifted that way.

The map of government spending also helps explain the rise of Donald Trump. He not only has promised to revive America’s economically stagnating communities, but to protect Social Security or Medicare from “even a single penny’’ of cuts. That stance was a departure from that of prior Republican leaders, who pushed to curb spending, in some cases by cutting benefits for future retirees.

This is how the most reliant counties voted in 2020.

Many of the counties that rely heavily on government safety-net and social-program money have this in common: They are clustered in the battleground states that will decide the presidential election.

About 70% of counties in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina are significantly reliant on the government income. So are nearly 60% of counties in Pennsylvania. In Arizona, 13 of the 15 counties are heavily reliant on safety-net income.

Measured another way, more than 44% of Michiganders live in counties that are significantly reliant on the government programs. In Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, more than a third of the populations live in such counties.

Trump has visited Johnstown, Pa., in all three of his presidential campaigns, promising economic renewal. A former steel powerhouse, the city and surrounding Cambria County lost jobs as industry collapsed, prompting businesses to close and workers to leave for opportunities elsewhere. The city has shed more than half its population since 1970.

The number of workers has fallen more than 10% since 2000. So has the number of business establishments.

Renewal hasn’t arrived, and voters in the county have increasingly supported Republican candidates for president. Trump won 68% of the vote in 2020.

About 35% of county income comes from federal and state safety-net payment and social programs, one of the highest shares in the state.

Like much of Pennsylvania, the counties of Northern Michigan are heavily reliant on government money. But Leelanau County, which juts into Lake Michigan, stands out as different.

It has something in common with Cambria: a lot of seniors, who are beneficiaries of Social Security and Medicare. Seniors make up 35% of the residents in Leelanau County, compared with 25% in Cambria.

And yet government social and safety-net income accounts for 16% of total income in Leelanau County, compared with 35% for Cambria County. This is largely because people in Leelanau—a popular retirement and tourism destination—have much higher underlying incomes. The population there has risen 6% since 2010.

And where Cambria County voters swung more heavily toward Trump in 2020 compared with 2016, voters in Leelanau shifted Democratic.

Wake County, N.C., presents a very different picture. Fast-growing and home to state capital Raleigh, the biggest county in North Carolina relies on government support for only about 10% of income. The young population is a big help—only 13% of Wake County’s population is at least 65 years old, far below the national share—meaning residents aren’t heavily tapping government programs for seniors.

About 14% of people there were born in another country, roughly matching the U.S. level. EIG’s data shows that counties with more immigrants tend to rely less on the government programs EIG tallied, while counties with small foreign-born populations tend to rely more on this government spending.

Since 2008, the county has backed Democrats for president while turning steadily bluer. Biden won 62% of the vote in 2020.

Government spending to help address poverty also contributes to the trend of increasing reliance, especially during economic downturns. But poverty in the U.S. has been relatively stable while the population grows older. Meanwhile, the costs of an aging population are rising.

Today, more than 17% of Americans are ages 65 or older, up from about 10% in 1970.

Spending on these programs has outpaced the income people earn from other sources, the EIG analysis shows. Meanwhile, pressure from a graying population won’t let up: By 2060, nearly a quarter of the U.S. will be at least 65, the Census Bureau projects.

WSJ : Chinese Property Stocks Surge as Barrage of Stimulus Continues

Chinese Property Stocks Surge as Barrage of Stimulus Continues
Two major Chinese cities lifted key curbs on buying homes to boost demand

Chinese property stocks powered higher in mainland and Hong Kong stock markets, thanks to a barrage of measures from Beijing to stabilize the country’s struggling property market.

The rally followed the central bank’s announcement on Sunday directing commercial banks to lower mortgage rates for existing home loans by at least 30 basis points below the Loan Prime Rate before Oct. 31.

Also, two major Chinese cities over the weekend lifted key curbs on buying homes to boost demand. The new regulations make it easier for people outside Shanghai and Shenzhen to buy property in the cities, reversing measures that limited property purchases to residents.

“We think Hang Seng Mainland Properties index has seen the biggest rally over the past decade, but this is mainly policy and sentiment induced,” Morningstar analyst Jeff Zhang said. “With no material improvement in home sales and prices yet, we feel the current gain may not be sustainable as most stocks we cover see limited upside now.”

The move by Shanghai and Shenzhen might help slow the on-year falls in home transactions over the next few months, Zhang said.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index, which tracks Chinese real-estate developers listed in Hong Kong, was 8.4% higher at Monday’s midday break, taking this month’s gain to 39%.

Poly Developments & Holdings rose 7.0% in Shanghai. In Hong Kong, Longfor Group was 19% higher and Sino-Ocean Group surged 9.3%.

The weekend’s moves followed Thursday’s China Politburo meeting, when it vowed to prevent the property sector from declining further.

“[The Politburo meeting] marks the first time the country’s top decision-making body acknowledged the notable difficulties of the property sector, which signals its strong commitment to stabilizing the sector, in our view,” said Nomura analysts Jizhou Dong and Riley Jin in a research note.

Chinese stocks have been boosted by a string of measures to support the flagging economy last week. The Hang Seng Index was 3.4% higher and the Shanghai Composite Index gained 5.7% Monday morning.

>>> China PBOC: All commercial banks must start lowering interest rates, in batc

China PBOC: All commercial banks must start lowering interest rates, in batches, on all existing mortgages by Oct 31st to no less than 30 bps below the PBOC's LPR rate - PBOC statement from third-quarter meeting
- PBOC will focus on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and promoting a sustained recovery
- Promote stable and healthy development of the real estate market
- China's economy still faces challenges such as insufficient demand and weak social expectations
- Must maintain "reasonable" liquidity levels and credit growth
- The yuan exchange rate must also be "basically" stable; Enhance exchange rate flexibility
- Prevent sustained expectations of a one-direction market, guard against risk of exchange rate overshoot
- Will continue to further clear bottlenecks in financing of SMEs
- Will support banks to supplement capital
- Must accurately and effectively implement prudent monetary policy and pay more attention to counter-cyclical adjustments
- Must increase intensity of monetary policy regulation, improve precision of monetary policy
- Enrich its monetary toolbox, carry out treasury bond trading, and pay attention to changes in long-term yields

WSJ : China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move

China to Allow Home Buyers to Refinance Mortgages in Latest Easing Move
The measure is the latest in a weeklong burst of moves aimed at stimulating China’s property market

HONG KONG—China said Sunday that it would allow home buyers to refinance their mortgages, the latest in a weeklong torrent of policy moves aimed at supporting the struggling economy.

The move marks a shift in how Chinese pay off their home loans and could allow policies aimed at addressing a prolonged property-sector slowdown to more effectively filter through to the market. Before this, many Chinese home buyers with existing mortgages have been unable to immediately benefit from interest-rate cuts.

Now, the country’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, will allow borrowers to negotiate with lenders to refinance their home loans using the prevailing market rate for new mortgages when the deviation with the existing mortgage rate reaches a “certain magnitude,” without elaborating.

The new measure takes effect on Nov. 1, the PBOC said in its statement, which was issued on Sunday night—an unusual time for a central-bank release, but one that extends a near-daily drumbeat of easing measures stretching back to Tuesday last week, when the PBOC announced a bundle of new policies aimed at supporting the property market and bolstering the broader economy.

When interest rates fall in the U.S., home buyers on fixed-rate mortgages are able to take out new loans at the lower rates to pay down their existing mortgages. Until now, their Chinese counterparts haven’t been able to do that nor have they been able to negotiate with their banks to lower their borrowing rates.

Separately, under China’s current mortgage-lending regime, any moves by China’s central bank to cut benchmark interest rates would result in lower rates on home loans only in January the following year. That arrangement, too, will change on Nov. 1, with borrowers and banks able to decide when to adjust to the new benchmark rates, the central bank said Sunday.

Economists had blamed these restrictions for the ineffectiveness of Chinese policymakers’ attempts to boost the property market in recent years.

“Shortcomings in the current mortgage interest-rate pricing mechanism have become apparent, the public reaction has been quite strong and the need to adjust and optimize is urgent,” the central bank said in a statement Sunday accompanying the new measures.

China’s property sector is suffering through its fourth consecutive year of contraction—a major reason for the general malaise in the world’s second-largest economy. New-home sales by China’s largest 100 property developers last month fell by 27% from a year earlier to $36 billion, faster than July’s 20% year-over-year decline, according to data provider China Real Estate Information Corp.

The average borrowing rate on new residential mortgages in May, the most recent month for which the data was available, was 3.45%, according to a sample of 100 Chinese cities by Beike Research Institute.

Since the beginning of 2022, the Chinese central bank has cut its five-year loan prime rate that banks typically use to price mortgages by 0.8 percentage point. However, most Chinese home buyers have been locked into higher rates, at least until the beginning of the following year, unable to immediately take advantage of the lower rates being offered on new mortgages.

Starting in the summer of 2022, an increasing number of Chinese borrowers began repaying their mortgages early in an attempt to free themselves from their pricier loans, which weighed on banks’ profitability and consumer spending. In July last year, a senior Chinese official acknowledged the gap between rates on new mortgages and existing ones and hinted that the central bank would change that.

Banks were quick to respond to Sunday’s announcement. China Construction Bank and the Agricultural Bank of China, which have outstanding mortgage books worth around $900 billion and $723 billion respectively as of June, said Sunday evening that they are working to reduce interest rates on existing mortgages, and promised to adjust interest rates by Oct. 31.

Sunday’s announcement also formalized policies that were first telegraphed over the past week. Those include cutting the minimum down payment on second homes to 15%, from the current 25%; extending previous easing policies set to expire at the end of the year; and bolstering its re-lending program for state-owned firms to acquire unsold property inventories.

FT : Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East

Israel dreams of a new order in the Middle East
But escalating the conflict further is more likely to lead to regional chaos

The killing of Hassan Nasrallah came just a few days before the first anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks on Israel. With its decapitation of Hizbollah in Lebanon, the Israeli government hopes that it has finally seized the initiative in the battle with its regional enemies.

The US is urging Israel not to escalate the conflict further. But Israel is likely to see the current moment as too good an opportunity to miss. Many now want to press home the advantage, in the hope of striking a decisive blow against not just Hizbollah but Iran — and the “axis of resistance” that it leads, which includes Hamas, Hizbollah, militias in Iraq and Syria and the Houthis in Yemen.

In the aftermath of Nasrallah’s killing, Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, talked about an opportunity for “changing the balance of power in the region for years”. If Israel can gravely damage the “axis of resistance”, its achievement would be quietly welcomed in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — which also fear Iran and have fought a war against the Houthis.

Unlike the Israeli government, the Saudis continue to insist that establishing a Palestinian state is critical to achieving lasting peace in the Middle East. The Saudi government also has good reason to fear the escalation of regional hostilities that could threaten their ambitious development plans.

For Israel, changing the balance of power also involves reversing the national narrative of defeat and confusion that set in after October 7. The Hamas attack was a humiliation for Israel’s intelligence services. The country’s reputation for always being one step ahead of its enemies was a key part of its deterrence strategy. That reputation was lost in a single day last year, when Israel was comprehensively outwitted by Hamas.

The subsequent war in Gaza has failed to restore Israel’s pride or its security. Despite an operation that has caused massive civilian deaths, Israel has been unable to free all its hostages. It is also losing the battle for international public opinion, and has been accused of genocide in hearings at the International Court of Justice.

The series of attacks on Hizbollah — starting with the exploding pagers, which killed or maimed so many of the organisation’s footsoldiers — has restored the reputation of Israeli intelligence and the morale of the Israeli public. The fact that Hizbollah is detested by many Lebanese citizens and some in the wider Arab world, also complicates the normal condemnation of Israel.

The destruction wrought on Hizbollah potentially puts Iran’s government in the most dangerous international situation it has faced for decades. The presence of a powerful Iran-backed militant force with a huge arsenal of rockets — right on Israel’s northern border — was always regarded as key to Iran’s deterrent power against Israel. The theory was that the Israelis would avoid a direct attack on Iran — partly for fear that Tehran would unleash Hizbollah.

Now, with its proxy and ally reeling, Iran is faced with a dilemma. It has not come directly to the aid of Hamas. If it also stands to one side as Hizbollah is pummelled, its allies will feel betrayed and Israel may be emboldened to take even more radical actions — perhaps including the direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities that it has been threatening for decades.

On the other hand, if Iran gets directly involved in a war with Israel, the regime’s survival would be at risk — particularly since the US might well get drawn into the conflict. The Americans have sworn off further wars in the Middle East, at least in theory. But they are also firmly committed to the defence of Israel and have demonstrated that they are capable of bringing about regime change in the Middle East. The bloody, chaotic aftermath of the US-led war in Iraq remains a recent and painful memory in Washington. But the fact that Iran is known to be very close to having the capacity to build a nuclear weapon will increase the temptation for Israel to strike now.

Some excited supporters of Israel are comparing the current moment to the Six Day War of 1967 — a sudden and unexpected Israeli victory that changed the balance of power in the Middle East.

But while there are clearly opportunities for Israel in the current situation, there are also massive risks. Hizbollah is reeling but it may still be able to deploy what remains of its arsenal of missiles and hit Israel’s major cities repeatedly. If Israel follows through on its threats of a ground invasion of Lebanon, it could find itself in a quagmire-like conflict that runs for years — at a time when its forces are already at war in Gaza.

Over the long run, the death and destruction in Lebanon caused by Israeli air strikes is likely to create a new generation of Hizbollah soldiers. Some 60 per cent of Hamas fighters are thought to be orphans from previous conflicts.

Hizbollah and Hamas are both grievously damaged. But Israel has yet to answer how Gaza will be governed after the war is over. Lebanon’s weak caretaker government may well be incapable of moving into any vacuum left by Hizbollah, in which case Israel could have a failed state on its borders.

Netanyahu may dream of bringing about a new regional order in the Middle East. But regional chaos — with the all the dangers that it brings — seems a more likely outcome.

WSJ : How Telegram Became a Hunting Ground for Criminals—and Cops

How Telegram Became a Hunting Ground for Criminals—and Cops
Even murder and terrorist plots are often discussed publicly on the app, giving authorities critical leads

When federal agent Chris Janczewski was trying to strangle the flow of money to an al Qaeda network in 2020, he first considered infiltrating an invite-only forum or hunting for clues on the dark web.

Then the Internal Revenue Service criminal investigator found the group talking openly about its scheme in a public forum on Telegram—one of the thousands of channels where people discuss illicit activities ranging from peddling child porn to selling stolen identities.

The terror cell had implored its followers in the forum to provide “the Mujahidin in Syria with weapons,” and included a bitcoin address for funds. The discovery allowed U.S. authorities to seize money headed to Syrian terror cells and led to overseas arrests.

For years, law-enforcement agencies around the world have complained that Telegram turned a blind eye to illicit behavior. French authorities arrested its founder, Pavel Durov, last month, charging him with complicity in the trafficking of drugs and child sexual-abuse material and failing to comply with legal orders. The company long had a policy of ignoring subpoena requests from law enforcement.

But Janczewski’s case and others illustrate an awkward truth: Even as Telegram presented a haven for criminals, its accessibility has long made it a hunting ground for cops.

In dozens of cases over the past five years, U.S. authorities have prosecuted criminals using their own words posted to Telegram channels, often fully public, a review of U.S. Justice Department cases shows.

Earlier this month, authorities charged two Americans with leading an international neo-Nazi group called Terrorgram that used the app to encourage followers to murder gay people, bomb federal facilities and assassinate U.S. officials. The group incited multiple acts of violence, including the October 2022 murder of two people outside a gay bar in Slovakia, authorities said.

Prosecutors used public Telegram channels in which the two defendants allegedly distributed a hit list of American senators, judges and prosecutors they pushed followers to kill. One has pleaded not guilty; the other hasn’t entered a public plea.

While often associated with encrypted messaging, Telegram is also a social-media platform like Facebook, allowing anyone to create publicly accessible groups around shared interests, with little policing of what they say.

Former federal agents say that even though it harbors criminality of all kinds, Telegram has become an indispensable tool for law enforcement. European law-enforcement officials have also used the platform to infiltrate criminal groups even without Telegram’s cooperation, officials say.

“While there is hardly a social-media app that is not being used by criminals, Telegram is striving to limit the abuse of its platform as much as possible,” Telegram Chief Operating Officer Mike Ravdonikas said.

Earlier this month, Durov said in a post that it was false to describe Telegram as “some sort of anarchic paradise,” adding that charging him personally was a “misguided approach.” Last week, French prosecutors said that since Durov’s arrest, Telegram has become far more cooperative.

Over the past month, the prosecutors and other European officials say the company has started regularly complying with law-enforcement requests seeking user data across the continent, including more than a hundred from France, a reversal from its earlier stance.

A double-edged sword
The open conversations allowed Janczewski to identify a single terrorist wallet address and eventually use it to locate more than 155 online al Qaeda-tied crypto accounts. “It meant I could track their transactions from my house without having to go to war-torn Syria,” said Janczewski, now head of investigations at TRM Labs, which investigates crypto-related fraud.

Despite the obvious risk, drug traffickers, terror cells and swindlers all like the openness of Telegram’s public channels and its one billion users because it allows them to broaden their reach, former federal agents say.

Before Telegram’s creation in 2013, criminals tended to use highly siloed darknet forums, inaccessible to regular users. Authorities could take down such criminal hubs through court orders but couldn’t easily track their users as they moved elsewhere online because the forums are so isolated, investigators said.

By contrast, Telegram users often use single identities across dozens of forums, providing investigators a road map, said Seth Goertz, a former federal prosecutor, who investigated cybercrimes and online drug sales.

Still, the platform is more useful for criminals than investigators, from helping Mexican cartels recruit paid killers to giving Chinese money-laundering operations a platform to find clients, said Evan Kohlmann, an antiterrorism consultant who has worked for the Federal Bureau of Investigation and has testified as a witness in dozens of cases involving Telegram. What authorities do catch on Telegram “is a small drop in the bucket,” he said.

A complicated relationship
Telegram and its founder Durov have long had a complicated relationship with Western governments. In 2018, France hacked Durov’s phone; one year later, the CEO was invited to lunch with French President Emmanuel Macron and offered the possibility of citizenship.

In a 2023 report on child-exploitation crimes, the Justice Department called out Telegram by name as facilitating the exchange of child rape videos.

But Durov’s libertarian attitude also held an appeal to the U.S. government. In 2011, the Russian tech executive publicly clashed with the Kremlin over demands to turn over user data for his previous company, VKontakte. The site had become a tool for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s critics to organize to rally mass protests to challenge his rule, and the Kremlin began pressuring Durov to sell VKontakte to a Putin confidant, Igor Sechin.

Durov resisted that sale, too. The U.S. Embassy was ambivalent about VKontakte because the site did little to regulate what the U.S. regarded as criminal activities nor did it pay heed to intellectual-property rights, said one former U.S. official who worked in Moscow. But when the Kremlin began to threaten his business, the embassy reached out to him to help facilitate his departure from Russia.

The official said Durov was already working on a new messaging app that would later morph into Telegram. Durov described it as a platform with servers spread around the world that would be essential for anyone evading government surveillance.

The State Department declined to comment.

For now, Durov appears ready to taper his laissez-faire attitude toward policing his platform. Last week, he announced on his channel that Telegram’s terms of service had changed to put users on notice that “the IP addresses and phone numbers of those who violate our rules can be disclosed to relevant authorities in response to valid legal requests.”

FT : The trouble with UniCredit’s interest in Commerzbank

The trouble with UniCredit’s interest in Commerzbank
Banks getting bigger may be attractive, but there are significant drawbacks — especially for the taxpayer

The US and Europe are two of the largest financial blocs in the world enjoying broadly similar levels of GDP. So why is it that the top 50 banks in Europe only have the same combined stock market valuation as the top five in the US? And is the fact that profitability is higher for US banks proof that those in Europe need to merge to become more like their rivals across the pond?

If you asked Onur Genç, chief executive of BBVA, or Andrea Orcel, chief executive of UniCredit, then the answer would likely be yes. Both banks are currently attempting takeovers of rivals, Sabadell and Commerzbank, respectively. The former is a more traditional, domestic affair, whereas the UniCredit-Commerzbank tussle feels much closer to a hostile cross-border transaction. While German government officials have described it as “unwise”, if it goes ahead, it would be the largest such transaction since the calamitous hostile takeover of ABN Amro by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) in 2007, a move which contributed to the latter’s collapse.

So should we be worried? The drivers of recent banking transactions are many of those that have shaped the European banking industry for the past 15 years: sluggish revenue outlook as the sugar rush of higher interest rates fades and rising costs as the promise of IT-driven efficiency is continually offset by higher investment spend, set against a backdrop of fragmented market shares, “market” referring to the eurozone.

It is therefore hardly a surprise that investment bankers are reaching for their pitch books and that mergers and acquisitions are back on the agenda, despite decades of studies suggesting that half or more of deals destroy shareholder value.

But are larger banks a good idea? One of the most important lessons of the financial crisis of the late 2000s was, as then Bank of England governor Mervyn King put it, that “most large complex financial institutions are global — at least in life if not in death”. The cost of the 2008 bailout of the globally active RBS fell entirely on the shoulders of UK taxpayers; those in the US didn’t have to pay a dollar, despite the fact that RBS was a top 10 US bank whose failure would have had clear repercussions for the American economy. 

And while new rules today mean that the cost of rescuing a bank falls theoretically on shareholders and debtholders rather than taxpayers, in practice it is clear that a large bank facing imminent collapse would not simply be allowed to fail once other providers of capital are fully wiped out. Does anyone believe the Swiss government would have simply allowed Credit Suisse to fail if it hadn’t managed to strong arm UBS into rescuing it? 

In reality, the theory that large banks are “too big to fail” seems to still hold true. The bigger banks are, the more problematic issues become. While today’s economic and financial conditions, combined with significant balance sheet strengthening, means that we are a long way from having to worry about bank failure, banking remains a highly cyclical, fantastically leveraged business with lurking dangers.

Some might argue that the formation of a European banking union means that a potential UniCredit-Commerzbank merger doesn’t change the risks: with both Germany and Italy using the euro, any failure would in turn be the responsibility of the eurozone. But that too is a chimera. There is no eurozone-wide deposit guarantee scheme, which in practice means that, were UniCredit to risk failure in the future, it would remain a problem for the Italian government and taxpayer to resolve.

For many banks in Europe looking enviously at their US peers, getting bigger may feel like an attractive option to address the challenges of today and regain their seat at the mega cap table. This is, however, not the case. Such transactions are rarely good for shareholders and, more importantly, for Europe’s taxpayers and governments, who remain the lenders of last resort.