TechCrunch : Here are all the IPOs reported to be in the works for 2025

Here are all the IPOs reported to be in the works for 2025

Tech is upbeat about more companies going public this year, thanks in part to a new presidential administration that has promised to ease regulations and embrace industries like crypto and AI.

But there were already early signs of bullishness — especially in fintech — thanks to the wildly successful 2024 IPO of ServiceTitan, a SaaS platform for the trades.

TechCrunch has compiled a chronological list of companies that have either announced that they plan to go public this year or have been reported to have confidentially filed for a 2025 IPO. And we’ve also included those that filed as far back as 2023 and could finally go public this year.

The confidential filing process allows companies to submit their registration documents to regulators without making them public. But companies can delay or even withdraw their filings, depending on market conditions.

Filed in 2025
eToro: The Israel-based trading platform filed confidentially in January 2025, reportedly seeking a $5 billion valuation.

Voyager Technologies: The space and defense tech startup confidentially filed in January 2025 and will likely be valued between $2 billion and $3 billion, the Wall Street Journal reported. The company, based in Denver, sells a wide variety of defense– and space-based solutions, from propulsion technologies to airlocks.

Karman Holdings: Another space and defense startup, Karman confidentially filed to go public in January 2025 and aims to raise up to $100 million in an IPO, it announced. The company, which specializes in missile technology, is based in Huntington Beach, California, and could be valued at $3 billion or more, Bloomberg reported.

In the works since 2024
Chime: The digital bank confidentially filed to IPO in December 2024 and is looking to go public in 2025. The company, which is based in San Francisco, was last valued at $25 billion in 2021.

Klarna: The Swedish buy now, pay later (BNPL) fintech confidentially filed in November 2024 for an IPO that’s been a long time in the making, paving the way for it to go public sometime in the first half of 2025. Klarna’s valuation rose to $14.6 billion in 2024.

Genesys: The AI cloud startup announced its confidential filing in October 2024. The company is based in Menlo Park, California, and was most recently valued at $21 billion in 2021, it said in a press release at the time. The company is eyeing a 2025 IPO that could raise as much as $2 billion, Bloomberg previously reported.

Clario: The clinical trial software provider confidentially filed in June 2024 seeking a $10 billion valuation. The company, based in Philadelphia, is looking to go public in 2025, Bloomberg reported.

Cerebras: The chip startup that aims to compete with Nvidia confidentially filed to IPO in August 2024, it announced. The company is based in Sunnyvale and is reportedly aiming to roughly double its current $4 billion valuation. The startup’s plans are facing potential delays due to concerns from U.S. regulators about its close ties to G42, a UAE investor and its main customer, Reuters reported. Fun fact: OpenAI once considered buying Cerebras around 2017.

Circle: The New York-based stablecoin provider filed confidentially in January 2024. While the exact timing remains unclear, in October 2024, Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire told Bloomberg it remained “very committed” to going public despite prior delays. President Trump’s embrace of crypto and promise to end government crackdowns on the industry could bolster its chances. The company’s valuation is around $5 billion according to stock that’s been trading on the secondary market, Coindesk reported.

Harry’s: The New York-based consumer company, which makes razors and other personal care items for men, has confidentially filed to go public, Reuters reported in March 2024, citing sources that the firm was nearing $1 billion in revenue and is profitable. The firm was last valued at $1.7 billion in 2021.

Omada Health: The San Francisco-based diabetes startup confidentially filed in the summer of 2024, Business Insider reported, amid hopes of a warmer IPO market in 2025. It was last valued at $1 billion in 2022.

Trying since 2023
Shein: The fast-fashion giant confidentially filed to IPO in the U.S. in 2023, but its hopes were dashed over congressional scrutiny of its supply chain and labor practices. It reportedly filed confidentially to IPO in the U.K. in 2024 and is still seeking to IPO as of 2025, although its U.K. foray is also meeting resistance from lawmakers there. Shein, headquartered in Singapore and with operations in China, was last valued at $45 billion in 2024, dropping from a $100 billion valuation in 2022.

General Atlantic: The San Francisco-based growth equity investor, which has backed firms like Facebook and Airbnb, confidentially filed to go public in 2023, Bloomberg reported. The firm has $96 billion in assets under management following its acquisition of U.K. PE firm Actis, according to a January 2024 announcement. There’s been no public updates on General Atlantic’s IPO plans since its 2023 filing, though.

Oyo: The SoftBank-backed Indian hotel aggregator confidentially filed in India in March 2023, Reuters reported, after a prior attempt fell through. While that attempt didn’t pan out, either, the company is reportedly planning to file again in the first quarter of 2025. Oyo hit a $3.8 billion valuation in 2024.

The Information : ChatGPT Subscribers Nearly Tripled to 15.5 Million in 2024

ChatGPT Subscribers Nearly Tripled to 15.5 Million in 2024

The Takeaway
• Five percent of weekly ChatGPT users pay for a subscription
• Business usage of OpenAI’s models increased sevenfold in 2024
• Its CEO said shunning open-source software put the company on the ‘wrong side of history’

Paid subscribers to ChatGPT nearly tripled to 15.5 million last year from 5.8 million a year earlier, OpenAI recently told some shareholders, despite competition from chatbots made by Google, Anthropic and Meta Platforms.

Based on what OpenAI charges for the chatbot subscriptions, the increase means ChatGPT was likely generating at least $4 billion in annualized revenue around the end of last year, or $333 million per month, just two years after its launch.

Separately, usage of OpenAI’s application programming interface—which gives companies such as Salesforce and T-Mobile access to its AI models—increased seven times, the company told the shareholders.

The growth could help explain why the valuation of OpenAI in an equity financing now under discussion is $260 billion, up 73% from the value at which OpenAI paid to buy employees’ shares in a recent tender offer. SoftBank is discussing being a lead investor in a $40 billion equity financing at the new valuation.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is negotiating to reduce Microsoft’s 20% cut of its revenue as they rework the terms of their contract, according to two people who have spoken to OpenAI leaders about it. Such a change could further boost OpenAI’s value.

The revenue sharing is part of a deal in which Microsoft funded the startup and provided it with servers to run its technology. In return, OpenAI has gotten a 20% cut of the revenue Microsoft generates from selling OpenAI models to its cloud customers.

OpenAI’s total 2024 revenue could not be learned, but the company last fall projected revenue of $4 billion, mostly from subscriptions to ChatGPT, and a loss of $5 billion--excluding stock based compensation--in part due to high computing costs. For the second half of that year, it set a goal of generating at least $3.5 billion in annualized revenue, or $290 million per month, from the chatbot by the end of the year, and it beat that by 14%. OpenAI’s API business generates the rest of the company’s revenue.

Five Percent Conversion

ChatGPT subscriptions start at $20 a month, and at least 1 million subscribers were part of plans that charge $25 per month or higher as of September, based on earlier private disclosures by OpenAI.

Far more people use ChatGPT without paying anything. Less than 5% of ChatGPT’s weekly active users were paying subscribers as of the end of 2024, the company told some shareholders. During 2024, OpenAI’s weekly active users more than tripled to about 350 million from roughly 110 million, OpenAI told the shareholders.

But OpenAI is counting on growth from higher-priced subscriptions for versions of its chatbot powered by more-advanced models. Seven weeks ago, it launched a $200-a-month Pro tier of the chatbot, or 10 times more than regular subscriptions, and it is already generating at least $300 million in annualized revenue from that business. ChatGPT Pro appeals to software engineers and other researchers who use it for their work.

The company has considered even higher prices of $2,000 per subscriber per month to use even more-advanced models. And it’s developing an AI coding product that aims to handle the work of a senior software engineer, for which it could charge a premium.

‘Wrong Side of History’

OpenAI’s API business pales in comparison with what ChatGPT generates, and it faces a lot more competition from Anthropic as well as open-source options like Llama and, more recently, DeepSeek, which could squeeze prices in the API market. That’s because the DeepSeek reasoning model, R1, is considered comparable in quality to OpenAI’s o1 but it’s much cheaper to operate. It’s already attracting business users including ZoomInfo and Perplexity.

However, OpenAI seems to be making an effort to release cheaper reasoning models; its new o3-mini AI is better at coding and math than o1 but even cheaper to access through an API than GPT-4o, OpenAI’s most popular nonreasoning model.

On Friday, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said on Reddit that the company had been on the “wrong side of history” by not releasing more free, open-source models and that it was discussing doing so. It isn’t the company’s “current highest priority,” he said.

In 2024, OpenAI’s API grew rapidly in terms of how much content, known as tokens, it was analyzing for customers or generating in its answers to their queries. (A token can be a word or part of a word.) OpenAI was processing and generating around 1.4 billion tokens per minute through its API at the end of the year, up from about 200 million at the beginning of the year, the company told some shareholders.

It’s tough to estimate OpenAI’s current revenue from the API business based on those figures, though last fall the company estimated it would generate about $1 billion from the business.

As a proxy, customers of Braintrust, which says it helps more than 10,000 companies including Instacart, Zapier and Airtable to evaluate AI models, used GPT-4o about 70% of the time they used an OpenAI model and GPT-4o mini about 27% of the time, with a small amount of usage of other OpenAI models like o1. Based on those proportions and the prices OpenAI lists for GPT-4o and GPT-4o mini, OpenAI’s API business could be generating $270 million in revenue per month, or $3.2 billion on an annual basis.

That figure would put OpenAI far ahead of its projection last fall that it would generate $2 billion from API sales in 2025.

CrunchBase : The Week’s Biggest Funding Rounds: Helion Energy Takes Top Spot In

The Week’s Biggest Funding Rounds: Helion Energy Takes Top Spot In Another Slow Week

While the year started out hot for large megaround deals, it has slowed considerably. Just three startups raised nine-figure rounds this week and you barely needed a round of $60 million to make this list.

1. Helion Energy, $425M, energy: Fusion startup Helion Energy locked up a $425 million Series F — valuing the company at $5.4 billion — as the company looks to commercialize its fusion technology. The round included participation from investors including Lightspeed Venture Partners, SoftBank Vision Fund 2 and Sam Altman. The Everett, Washington-based startup has now raised more than $1 billion. In November 2021, Helion closed a $500 million Series E. The new round further illustrates investors’ appetite for new energy sources as power needs increase due to AI and other advances. In 2023, Helion announced a power purchase agreement with Microsoft to deliver electricity from its fusion plant starting in 2028, and a customer agreement with Nucor to develop a power plant in the 2030s. Helion has just started operating its seventh generation prototype, Polaris, which is expected to demonstrate the first electricity produced from fusion. The company’s new round is the second-largest in the fusion sector since the start of last year, per Crunchbase data. Last October, Pacific Fusion, a startup attempting to create a nuclear fusion-based energy source, raised more than $900 million in a Series A led by General Catalyst.

2. ElevenLabs, $180M, artificial intelligence: Voice AI startup ElevenLabs raised a $180 million round led by Iconiq Growth and Andreessen Horowitz at a $3.3 billion valuation. The raise comes about a year after the startup locked up an $80 million Series B at a unicorn valuation. The Brooklyn-based company allows creators, enterprises and others to use AI software to replicate voices in dozens of languages. Founded in 2022, ElevenLabs has raised $281 million, per Crunchbase.

3. Openly, $123M, insurance: The most expensive purchase most people will ever make is their home, so it matters who insures it. Openly provides independent insurance agents with a platform that offers coverage to homeowners and streamlines processes, improves risk underwriting and helps with claims. The Boston-based insurtech startup raised $123 million in equity financing led by Eden Global Partners this week, and another $70 million in debt. In 2023, the company raised a $100 million Series D, also led by Eden Global Partners. Founded in 2017, the company has raised nearly $431 million, per Crunchbase.

4. Atalanta Therapeutics, $97M, biotech: Boston-based Atalanta Therapeutics, a biotechnology using RNA interference for the treatment of neurological diseases, completed a $97 million Series B co-led by EQT Life Sciences and Sanofi Ventures. The company will use the cash to support clinical trials of its experimental RNAi therapies for KCNT1-related epilepsy and Huntington’s disease. Founded in 2018, the company has raised $207 million, per Crunchbase.

5. (tied) Mercor, $75M, human resources: San Francisco-based recruiting startup Mercor raised a $75 million round led by Felicis that values the company at a $2 billion valuation, per a report. The company started the process in December and the final total could still increase. Founded in 2023, the company has raised nearly $109 million, per Crunchbase.

5. (tied) Veir, $75M, power grid: Woburn, Massachusetts-based Veir, a developer of superconducting platforms for AI-driven data centers and utilities, closed a $75 million Series B led by Munich Re Ventures. Founded in 2019, the company has raised nearly $112 million, per Crunchbase.

7. Castelion, $70M, defense: Castelion, a defense manufacturer developing long-range hypersonic strike weapons, raised a $100 million Series A in a mix of debt and equity. The El Segundo, California-based startup creates what it calls “affordable, mass-produced hypersonic long-range strike weapons” that serve as a “non-nuclear deterrent.” The Series A — which includes $30 million in venture debt from Silicon Valley Bank — was led by Lightspeed Venture Partners. Defense tech has garnered major headlines in the past several months after massive raises by the likes of Anduril Industries and artificial intelligence defense software developer Helsing. Just late last year, defense and critical infrastructure tech startup Chaos Industries raised $145 million in a Series B. Already this year, Firehawk Aerospace raised a $60 million Series C and Onebrief locked up a $50 million Series B.

8. (tied) Helicore Biopharma, $65M, biotech: South San Francisco-based Helicore Biopharma, a biopharmaceutical startup focused on the treatment of obesity and related conditions, emerged from stealth mode with $65 million in a Series A co-led by OrbiMed and Versant Ventures.

8. (tied) Smart Wires, $65M, electronics: Durham, North Carolina-based Smart Wires, a company that develops solutions for a more reliable and affordable power grid, raised $65 million in a new investment that included participation from BP Energy Partners. Founded in 2010, the company has raised $248 million, per Crunchbase.

10. Rad AI, $60M, health care: San Francisco-based Rad AI, an artificial intelligence-enhanced radiology firm, reportedly locked up a $60 million round led by Transformation Capital that values the company at $525 million. Founded in 2018, Rad AI has raised more than $140 million, per the company.

Big global deals
The largest deal outside the U.S. came from the Iberian Peninsula.
  • Spain-based TravelPerk, an all-in-one platform for managing business travel, raised a $200 million Series E that values the company at $2.7 billion.

Barron's : The Recession That Never Was Could Be Coming This Year

The Recession That Never Was Could Be Coming This Year

Don your shimmering suit and kick up your heels, it’s time to celebrate America’s New Golden Age—or so says President Donald Trump. What could possibly go wrong? Well, not to take away your punch bowl prematurely, but a recession, for one thing.

What? The “R” word? Pshaw! No one’s made mention of that dreary economic relic in eons—or at least since November. Recessions, so the starry-eyed say, belong to a bygone era, not this epoch of cheap energy, unbridled growth, and AI-hegemonical American exceptionalism. (Ah, maybe let’s hold off on that last one.)

Snarkiness aside, my point is that just when rose-colored glasses are tinting the world most vividly is when all can come undone. In fact, at this moment of great economic expectations—and yes, much of it, as per usual in the U.S. of A., is warranted—there are still all manner of nagging worries, any one of which could explode into fury.

Consider sentiment itself. You may be aware that few, nay, basically no economists are predicting a recession right now. That’s in sharp contrast to just 24 months ago, when any dismal scientist worth her or his slide rule was calling for a contraction.

In fact, the average probability that a recession will occur within the next 12 months, according to 70 or so economists polled by The Wall Street Journal’s Economic Forecasting Survey, has been declining for the past 10 quarters, from a 63% chance in the third quarter of 2022 to just 22% today. This move is even more significant when you consider that rarely do economists rate the possibility of a recession at more than 90% or less than 10%.

Other analyses mirror the Journal’s. Bankrate, in its latest quarterly Economic Indicator Survey, reports that “economists put the odds of a recession by the end of 2025 at just 26%, a new series low [going back to the first quarter of 2022].” And some 91% of respondents to the latest National Association of Business Economics survey from a week ago assigned a probability of 50% or less to the U.S. entering a recession over the next 12 months.

So yes, the same cohort that is issuing the all-clear sign today was braying oh so recently, quarter after quarter, that a contraction was nigh—which struck some of us been-around-the-blockers as suspect. In June 2022, I wrote, “I’ve covered the markets and the economy for four decades, and I can’t recall a time when more people—or at least prognosticators, economists, and bankers—were more certain that an economic downturn was imminent….Does it mean that a recession won’t occur?”

In fact, it didn’t.

In June 2023, I revisited the topic and said flat out that there would be no recession that year. I was “ridiculing the most widely predicted economic event in modern history—which seems pretty certain not to happen.”

In fact, it didn’t.

Now the script has been flipped.

The fact that so many economists were wrong before doesn’t necessarily mean they are wrong again and that a recession is imminent. So, let’s examine some real-life proximate risks and check in with the few wild-duck economists who aren’t irrationally exuberantly inclined.

Amy Crews Cutts, for one, an independent consulting economist with Primerica. Invoking former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s ”unknown and known knowns,” she sees a greater than 50% chance of a recession in the next 12 months.

“There’s always unknown risks,” she says, “say, if North Korea were to bomb Russia. But we have known risks, and chief among them is Trump’s trade policy. If he enacts tariffs rapidly, across large swaths of our import economy, we will see people involved in [international] trade being laid off and companies going belly up instantaneously.”

“I think that the Trump administration is using tariffs as a negotiating tool, and they’re not going to be as bad as many think, but there is a risk of overdoing it,” says Eugenio Alemán, an economist at Raymond James who, while positive on the U.S. economy, sees a 40% risk of recession this year, one of the highest in the WSJ survey. Alemán notes that we could slip into an escalating and retaliatory trade war, similar to what he says exacerbated the Great Depression of the 1930s. That, and overdoing mass deportation, which could diminish economic activity, worry Alemán.

“We need landscapers, people in kitchens, and people to clean [hotels], and that source of labor comes largely from the undocumented pool,” says Cutts. “We also need engineers and well-trained people. If we curtail all legal and undocumented immigration, we put pressure on wages, which is inflationary. We make it hard for companies to grow because they can’t get the labor they need.”

Cutts also points to Primerica’s Household Budget Index, which tracks the purchasing power of middle-income families. “You ask about the probability of recession. Well, taking into account [higher costs] of necessities, [families] are just barely above where they were in January 2019,” she says. “Some 70% of families surveyed say their income is not keeping up with inflation.” These numbers, Cutts suggests, make Americans susceptible to an economic shock and could cause a recession.

Food inflation is still persistent, specifically the price of eggs, which underlines another potential ticking economic bugaboo. “Avian flu is not going away,” Cutts says. “The solution seems to be to kill all the birds. So, farmers are wiping out their flocks, but it seems like that’s not working—and it’s spreading to livestock.”

What about the stock market, Big Tech stocks like Nvidia, in particular, getting deep-sixed this past week by DeepSeek, the Chinese upstart that apparently produces a cheaper form of artificial intelligence? “The expectations on the AI sector and the rate of growth are concerning and might be a bubble,” says Alemán. “This could trigger animal spirits in the wrong direction. I don’t think this has the ability to bring down the U.S. economy, but it starts to scratch the surface.”

It’s also worth noting that DeepSeek calls into question the mind-boggling capital expenditures that Big Tech has been pouring into AI. My colleague Adam Levine notes that Amazon.com, Microsoft, Alphabet’s Google, and Meta Platforms “have combined for $343 billion in capital expenditures largely for building out AI data centers,” with the promise of tens of billions more going forward. If this megaspend turns out to be mostly for naught, well, it certainly won’t boost economic growth.

Speaking of spending, the CEO of a boldface-name private-equity group whom I lunched with this past week expressed concern over the federal deficit, which is expected to climb from $1.9 trillion this year to $2.7 trillion by 2035, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s economic outlook. It’s easy to imagine the Treasury needing to fund that debt with higher bond yields, which would be inflationary—and potentially recessionary.

Monetarist economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University notes a significant contraction in money supply, which he says has historically been recessionary, though he acknowledges that his theories have fallen out of fashion. “[Federal Reserve Chair Jerome] Powell has been adamant that the changes in the quantity of money don’t have any material effect on economic activity or inflation, which is complete nonsense,” Hanke says. Less money makes for less economic activity, he argues, which he says will engender an economic slowdown this year.

For now, at least, recessionary talk comes from outliers, and any number of Americans are content to celebrate the moment. A recent New York Times article on what the president’s supporters want for the future of America included a photograph and quote from one Robert Shinkle, from the Ohio Department of Development administrative staff in Sugarcreek Township, Ohio. Shinkle, resplendent in a shimmering suit, said, “We expect that Trump will usher in a new golden era for America. That’s why we’re dressed the way we are. This is the beginning of the Roaring ’20s 2.0.”

Let me pose the question again: What could possibly go wrong?

Stocks of companies in the power-generation business got short-circuited this past week in the wake of the DeepSeek imbroglio. The thinking is that if the Chinese AI start-up’s low-cost model proliferates, tech companies won’t need massive amounts of power for their data centers. But at least one CEO close to the action is unperturbed.

“It shouldn’t really have affected us because of the significant orders we already have,” says Ian Edwards, CEO of AtkinsRéalis Group, a Montreal-based company that maintains, restarts, and builds nuclear power plants. Yes, his stock has dropped 7.6% this past week, but Edwards says the DeepSeek news won’t affect the need for nuclear power. “We’re going to move to electric vehicles, and manufacturing wants to go electric,” he says. “Eighty percent of the world’s electrical energy is now fossil fuel. Most countries are looking to get to net zero by 2050.”

Only 20% of AtkinsRéalis’ revenue comes from the nuke business. The majority is derived from managing and advising on large construction projects. But it’s the nuclear piece of the company that has Wall Street lit up.

“Our nuclear business grew 35% last year,” he says, some three times its engineering services business, benefiting from the so-called nuclear renaissance, which has the company refurbishing or in discussions to restart or build new nuke plants in Canada, Argentina, Romania, and South Korea. Even with the dip this past week, AtkinsRéalis stock is up 171%, versus 36% for the S&P 500 index over the past three years.

Before that rebirth, AtkinsRéalis’ nuke business, now called Candu Energy, which it bought from the Canadian government in 2011 for a pittance of $15 million in that country’s currency, was a moribund enterprise engaged in maintenance and decommissioning. Today, Edwards says, it has a C$4 billion backlog of orders.

Like the nuclear power business, AtkinsRéalis, formerly named SNC-Lavalin, went through its own dark period. From the 1990s into the 2000s, the company was scarred by a series of scandals and litigation. And so, Edwards, who became CEO in 2019, had a major maintenance and refurbishment of the internal kind to sort through. Now, investors are counting on the company and the nuclear business to continue to rebound.

Barron's : Merger Funds Are Ready to Rally. Why They Look Better Than Bond Funds

Merger Funds Are Ready to Rally. Why They Look Better Than Bond Funds.

The urge to merge is back—and Biden administration appointee Lina Khan, the former chair of the Federal Trade Commission, is gone.

“Everybody is sick and tired of the government interfering in private commerce,” says Roy Behren, the manager of the Merger Fund. “We saw an extremely activist Federal Trade Commission led by an inexperienced academic, and she has forestalled many transactions that were announced.”

While the Khan FTC insisted it was protecting the public from monopolistic practices, merger arbitrage managers like Behren are celebrating Khan’s departure and the Trump administration’s replacement of her with the more merger-friendly Andrew Ferguson.

Less regulation and a dealmaker as president should improve returns, as the likelihood has increased of more merger deals being approved more quickly and ultimately closing.

Both the number and speed of regulatory approvals are relevant. “The big risk with merger arb is time,” says manager Scott Johnson of the NexPoint Merger Arbitrage fund. “If the definitive merger agreement tells me I’m going to get $20 at closing, how long it takes for that deal to close determines what my return is. If the stock is trading at [$19.50] and the deal closes in four months, I make an 8% IRR [annualized internal rate of return]. But if the deal closes in eight months, I make a 4% IRR.”

One way Khan delayed mergers was to issue what are called “second requests” for more information about proposed deals to see if they were anticompetitive, even when Johnson and other arbitragers believed they weren’t. These deals would eventually close but take longer to do so. Johnson points to waste-disposal company Waste Management’s $7.2 billion acquisition of Stericycle in November as an example. “Stericycle does only medical waste. Waste Management’s not in medical waste,” he says. “There was no overlap in their businesses.”

He calls this FTC strategy “regulatory tourism” in the private sector. Regulators “just go in and do a second request and prolong the deal for no other reason than to make boards and CEOs think twice about getting involved in a merger,” he says. Such requests, he believes, will largely disappear now.

The improved outlook for merger funds comes at a good time, as the bond market has become increasingly volatile in an uncertain interest-rate environment. Because of their low volatility and returns that aren’t correlated with the stock market, merger funds can be used as a bond fund substitute. Whether the stock or bond markets rise or fall, merger funds’ returns move independently, being based solely on whether proposed deals close.

Yet investors must understand the nuances of arbitrage strategies. Morningstar includes merger funds in its “event driven” fund category, but not every corporate event is a merger. The category’s best performer in the past five years, the Camelot Event-Driven fund, does a lot more than merger arb.

“We’ll invest in mergers, distressed situations, activist situations, and then special situations such as spinoffs or company breakups,” says the fund’s co-manager, Paul Hoffmeister. “We allocate to those different substrategies based on how we see the risk/reward profile in them.”

Camelot co-manager Thomas Kirchner sums up the common theme for each investment. “It’s a change in the corporate structure where you’re reorganizing the company—whether that’s a merger, breakup, or bankruptcy—and that unlocks some kind of hidden value,” he says.

While Kirchner and Hoffmeister argue that there will be better merger opportunities going forward, as of Dec. 31, Camelot had only 14% of its assets allocated to merger arb plays. Some 32% was allocated to activist situations, when a large shareholder of a company is trying to force its management to unlock value, often by selling assets.

The Camelot team will often piggyback on powerful activist hedge funds’ investments. One such power broker they follow is Starboard Value, which recently began to pressure Kenvue, a healthcare spinoff from Johnson & Johnson, to address its lagging share price. Such bets can produce higher returns than merger arb, but with more volatility and unpredictability, as activists don’t always win their fights.

Camelot’s standard deviation—a volatility measure—has been 8.1% in the past three years, compared with NexPoint Merger Arbitrage’s 1.9% and the Merger Fund’s 2.6%. That’s a lot less than the S&P 500 index’s 17.4%, yet Camelot might make a better equity substitute than a bond one.

While the merger outlook has improved, there are still a few risk factors to consider in the more lenient Trump administration, such as to technology sector mergers. Concern over the influence of the largest social-media, search, and e-commerce platforms crosses political parties. “Gail Slater, who’s going to head the antitrust division at the Department of Justice, is pro mergers,” says NexPoint’s Johnson. “What she is against, as is Andrew Ferguson, is Big Tech. They’re going to continue going after Big Tech.”

The other risk is to cross-border mergers, as the new administration is hostile to foreign influences on American business. “It depends on the industry and country,” says manager Daniel Lancz of First Trust Merger Arbitrage, another solid, low-risk merger fund. China and its influence on the U.S. tech sector is a particular concern. “When you start getting into certain industries that have sensitivity, whether it be to national security or just the general advancement or misuse of technology for the advancement of another country over the United States, I think those are going to be the type of transactions that probably warrant more caution,” he says.

Even so, the sailing for merger funds should be smoother going forward than for rockier bond funds.

Barron's : 2 Surprising Stock Rallies: Volkswagen and Germany

2 Surprising Stock Rallies: Volkswagen and Germany

Don’t look now, but Volkswagen stock is on a tear. German equities in general are outperforming their country’s dismal economic statistics.

Shares in VW, the global auto industry’s sick man, surged 20% in the past two months. Germany’s leading stock index, the DAX 40
DAX, is up 10% over the same period, while the S&P 500 is about even.

Volkswagen’s rally may run out of gas, or charge. Germany’s looks like it has legs.

VW, whose nine million vehicles a year include Audis, Porsches, and Skodas, plus the namesake brand, has two basic problems: cost and product. Average margins run 2%, while management is targeting 6%, says Stephen Reitman, who covers European autos for Bernstein Research.

CEO Oliver Blume settled for half a loaf at best on costs in a tangle with unions late last year. Instead of the unprecedented German plant closures he had threatened, he wrested a 10% cut in head count—by 2030.

“VW was essentially priced for bankruptcy,” says Michael Field, European equity strategist at Morningstar. “But I can’t say this is the end of their troubles.”

The big test for product will come in 2026, when VW tries to play catch-up in electric vehicles with four models priced below 25,000 euros ($26,028), says Germany-based industry analyst Matthias Schmidt.

Leading Chinese producer BYD may be faster off the mark, with its factory in Hungary starting budget EV production later this year.

The key to understanding other German stocks is that DAX 40 companies reap 80% of their revenue outside of Germany, says Maximilian Uleer, head of European equity at Deutsche Bank. In that context, investors are anticipating tailwinds.

Economic growth in Europe and globally is poised to accelerate, a little, this year. The European Central Bank keeps cutting interest rates while the U.S. Federal Reserve pauses. The ECB shaved 25 basis points, to 2.75%, on Jan. 30. Power prices, which buffeted German industry after Russia’s 2002 invasion of Ukraine, are back near prewar levels.

Germany is relatively shielded from President Donald Trump’s tariff threats, with just 10% of its exports bound for the U.S., adds Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING Research. Volkswagen and other big names already manufacture extensively within the U.S.

That all should translate into an 11% jump in earnings for DAX constituents this year, after a 9% decline in 2024, Deutsche Bank predicts. Industrial companies will rebound from a negative 10% to 20% gains, Deutsche estimates.

Morningstar’s Field is scouring for value in names that remain traumatized by post-2022 events—like chemical giant Bayer, which has lost 60% of its value since the war in Ukraine started, and utility RWE, which is down by a quarter.

Brzeski fears national trauma ahead from German elections looming on Feb. 23. The center-right Christian Democratic Union looks poised to be top vote-getter. Less predictable is whether the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, will win enough votes to force the CDU into a torturous three-way coalition with the Social Democrats and Greens.

The AfD exceeding its current polling around 20% would deliver a sentiment shock that could hurt German companies no matter where they do business. At best, “the risk of another divided, muddle-through government has increased over the past few weeks,” Brzeski says.

At VW, Blume will have to wield a sharper budget ax, score big with those four new EV models, or both. Otherwise, Field says, “his job may be open a year from now.”

>>> Barron’s Weekend Summary

Cover:
-The generative artificial-intelligence revolution has primarily benefited computer hardware manufacturers, such as Nvidia, Dell Technologies, Super Micro Computer, and suppliers like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and SK Hynix. However, the emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI lab, has challenged the belief that AI is expensive due to its high computing power requirements. DeepSeek's models are on par with leading U.S. offerings from OpenAI and Google, all built at a fraction of the cost. This could spark a value shift from hardware to software, as AI has been defined more by largess than finesse. Companies like Salesforce are pushing to integrate AI that will automate their existing business software, and if DeepSeek's cost-saving methods can be replicated, Salesforce's expense for AI features would drop significantly.

Interview:
-No update

Tech Trader:
-The viral social media post about a $6M artificial-intelligence model from Chinese company DeepSeek erased $1T in market value across the largest US tech stocks. The hype raised questions about America's AI leadership and tanked tech stocks, with the Nasdaq Composite index falling 3.1% and AI leader Nvidia tumbled 17%. However, DeepSeek did not replicate OpenAI's ability by spending a few million dollars. The $6M figure omits all R&D funds for the model's architecture, algorithms, data acquisition, graphics processing units, and test runs. Comparing a theoretical final training-run cost to US company spending on AI infrastructure is apples to oranges, and DeepSeek's overall cost is likely much higher. Bernstein semiconductor analyst Stacy Rasgon criticized the $5M figure as "fundamental misunderstanding" and called the $6M training figure "deeply misleading," emphasizing that a smart team couldn't train the DeepSeek model from scratch with a few million dollars.

The Trader:
-Stocks were concerned about various factors this week, including China's DeepSeek chatbot, Big Tech earnings, and the latest Federal Reserve meeting. However, the market seemed to emerge unscathed, with the S&P 500 index finishing the week down 1%. This was due to the market's anxiety that if a scrappy open-source Chinese model could match ChatGPT, AI could be significantly cheaper than previously anticipated. This could be a boon to users but a blow to megacap tech stocks pouring billions into their own projects. The Temu of AI DeepSeek is expected to dramatically alter the $2T of AI expenditures expected over the next three years. Almost immediately, attention turned to earnings from Meta Platforms, Tesla, Apple, and Microsoft, who did their best to reassure the market. However, the S&P 500 index remained nearly unchanged for the week through Thursday's close, with 333 gainers in the index compared to 169 stocks that lost ground.
-Royal Caribbean has announced its entry into the river cruise market, a high-yielding segment currently dominated by Viking Holdings, which skews towards wealthier consumers. The first two of 10 river ships are expected to be delivered in 2027, and bookings for these maiden voyages will begin next year. Royal shares have surged 17% in 2025 and have gained more than Nvidia over the past 12 months. The river ships' cost per berth is expected to be above the $340,000 to $355,000 spent on recent ocean ships, and the ships come with their own financial risks. Gimme Credit's Kim Noland noted that the 10 ships will cost about $5B in the coming years, meaning they are expensive and not without risk and could delay a near-term upgrade in RCL's credit profile. Despite the apprehension, the news looks good for Royal, as river cruising is a fragmented market that has been growing at a double-digit clip a year for a decade.

Features:
-Dollar-cost averaging is an investment strategy that can be particularly effective in volatile markets. In down markets, it can force investors to buy equities at bargain-basement prices when other investors are selling or sitting on their wallets. In up markets, dollar-cost averaging protects investors from betting all their chips only to see them tumble in value. For nervous investors, the key is to acknowledge that none of us know what will happen in the future in the markers. Dollar-cost averaging works by dividing the sum of $1M into quarterly payments, which can be invested over a year. If the market falls during this time, you will purchase a chunk of those equities at tomorrow's lower price. However, if the market continues to rise, dollar-cost averaging will net you less money than buying $1M of stock today.
-President Donald Trump confirmed that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China are coming this weekend, along with additional tariffs on chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper. The levies are a response to the countries failing to stop the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants into the US. Trump said that he would put tariffs on oil and gas "fairly soon" around the 18th of February, with oil possibly having a reduced tariff of around 10%. He also mentioned imposing tariffs on steel, copper, and aluminum at some point "this month, next month." Trump said "absolutely" that he will impose tariffs on the European Union at some point. The breadth of the levies will have a big impact on companies from auto makers to home builders. Mexico and Canada are the US's largest trading partners, with a combined $1.8T of trade in goods and services. A 25% levy on Mexico could potentially increase tariffs by about $131B annually, while the Canada tariffs would raise taxes by $106B.

Europe:
-Volkswagen stock has surged 20% in the past two months, outperforming German equities. The leading stock index, the DAX 40, is up 10% over the same period, while the S&P 500 index is about even. Volkswagen faces two main problems: cost and product. Average margins run 2%, while management is targeting 6%. VW was essentially priced for bankruptcy, but this is not the end of their troubles. The big test for product will come in 2026 when VW tries to play catch-up in electric vehicles with four models priced below 25,000 euros ($26,028). Leading Chinese producer BYD may be faster off the mark, with its factory in Hungary starting budget EV production later this year. The key to understanding other German stocks is that DAX 40 companies reap 80% of their revenue outside of Germany, so investors are anticipating tailwinds. Economic growth in Europe and globally is poised to accelerate this year, with the European Central Bank cutting interest rates and the US Federal Reserve paused.

Emerging Markets:
-No update

Commodities:
-The US is set to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday, causing anxiety in the uranium and oil markets. Both oil and uranium are major exports from Canada to the US, and trading volumes of the Canadian iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index have been down from normal levels. The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF has been seeing higher-than-usual volume, and Canadians are trading with more trepidation. It was not immediately clear which products would be hit with tariffs and what the rates would be. Analysts say tariffs on oil could cause US gasoline prices to rise, as several American refineries rely on processing Canadian oil. If 25% tariffs on oil were passed completely along to consumers, it could raise gasoline prices 35 cents per gallon in parts of the country. Canadian producers might have to sell their oil at a wider-than-usual discount to American crude. A tariff on uranium could hurt Canadian producers such as Cameco, while potentially benefiting US producers like UEC.

Streetwise:
-Wall Street experts have proposed a trading strategy that suggests buying low and selling high, with the goal of buying a $30 stock and selling it when it hits $750. This strategy is based on the belief that higher prices may signal better quality or a recent gainer. However, experienced investors understand that share prices are arbitrary and can be adjusted through stock splits or reverse splits. Factors like the overall value of the business, debt and cash flows, and prospects for improvement or worse are more important. The "buy low, sell high" strategy is considered an ‘un-truism,’ as most trades represent disagreements about whether an issue is low or high. Stocks tend to rise over time, and index investors have made out well by buying high and holding out for higher. A more useful mantra might be to buy often and hold until it's someone else's problem, as you're either dead or rich enough to give it away. However, at the moment, the first person might be right, as three recent observations by the research investment committee at BofA Securities suggest.