WSJ : China Says It Has a Big Stimulus Coming—But Still Won’t Say How Big

China Says It Has a Big Stimulus Coming—But Still Won’t Say How Big
With few details offered by officials, stock investors are back to where they started the week: in a waiting game

HONG KONG—After a week of hope and disappointment on China’s stock market, anticipation was high among investors on Saturday that senior officials in Beijing would unveil a fiscal stimulus package with a large headline dollar figure.

They did not.

Instead, Finance Minister Lan Fo’an said that officials had a “fairly large” amount of room to boost spending, while pledging the boldest measures in years to resolve local governments’ debt loads, support the nation’s ailing property market and recapitalize large banks—tackling some of the most intractable challenges in the Chinese economy.

“I can tell you responsibly that China’s finances are sufficiently resilient, and that by adopting comprehensive measures, we can achieve a balance between revenues and expenditures and accomplish the annual budget target,” Lan said. “Please be assured.”

Markets were closed on Saturday, so it remains to be seen whether Lan’s pledge, free of any specific dollar figures, will be enough to assuage worries that Beijing has moved too slowly to address a sharp slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.

Earlier in the week, stocks had surged as expectations for a flood of stimulus ran high, only to come tumbling down after a Tuesday news conference by China’s main economic planning agency ended without any details on the scale and scope of any government measures.

Those hopes were revived again after China’s Finance Ministry announced plans for Saturday’s news briefing, although mainland China and Hong Kong’s respective benchmark stock indexes both finished the week deep in negative territory.

With the Finance Ministry now having outlined its plans, albeit without a headline figure, stock investors are back to where they started the week—in a waiting game for more details from Beijing. Economists and market strategists now say any specific numbers are only likely to be announced later this month, after the standing committee of China’s legislature, which is entrusted with approving changes to the budget, can meet and approve any stimulus plans.

Despite shying away from any specific fiscal stimulus figures, the Finance Ministry addressed a range of challenges that they are focusing on, specifically the growing debt burden at the Chinese local government level, concerns about banks’ capital levels and the mess in the country’s property market.

The Finance Ministry said it would conduct a one-off quota increase for local governments, many of which have spent lavishly on infrastructure projects using off-the-books financing vehicles, to swap out their “hidden debt” for explicit government-backed debt. Without disclosing the size of the quota, Lan touted the plans as “the boldest measure” in recent years to address the local-government-debt overhang, which has become one of the biggest worries among China economists.

Many governments at the subnational level have fallen into dire financial straits as land sales to property developers—a key pillar of local government coffers—collapsed amid Beijing’s attempts to rein in the real-estate sector. That drop in land-sale revenues coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, which hit the governments’ tax intake.

No one knows exactly how much Chinese local governments have accumulated in off-the-books debt, but economists estimate the size to be somewhere between $7 trillion and $11 trillion, about twice the size of China’s central government debt. As much as $800 billion of it is at a high risk of default, some economists have estimated.

Lan said Saturday that local governments will be allowed to use the proceeds from special-purpose bonds—debt typically used to fund state-led infrastructure projects—to buy up unsold homes from developers and convert them to affordable housing, and to repurchase idle land parcels from developers. Both measures have been floated by economists as ways to help relieve liquidity pressure on the country’s distressed real-estate developers.

Separately, Liao Min, a vice finance minister, said during Saturday’s briefing that the government will sell special treasury bonds to recapitalize China’s largest commercial banks. Notably, Liao didn’t put a number on the size of the bond issue—a figure that investors were closely watching for.

Before the press conference, economists and strategists had offered predictions about the dollar amount on any notional stimulus package, with estimates ranging from one trillion yuan and three trillion yuan, equivalent to $142 billion to $425 billion. Some tallied up all the key areas where China’s economy needed fiscal boosts and the figure came to about 10 trillion yuan, or $1.42 trillion, equivalent to roughly 8% of China’s gross domestic product last year.

While some, like Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura, had predicted earlier that the stimulus package might be capped at 3% of GDP a year for a few years, Lan’s comments on Saturday imply that Beijing will likely raise the fiscal deficit above that level next year, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.

Lisheng Wang and his colleagues at Goldman Sachs, writing to clients after Saturday’s news briefing, expressed some disappointment at the continued lack of specifics on the size of the stimulus.

Still, over the past few weeks, “it’s clear that policymakers have been making more forceful and coordinated easing efforts to boost domestic demand (especially consumption), normalize inflation and rebuild confidence,” he wrote. “Fiscal stimulus is likely to take the heavy lifting.”

FT : Nike tries to get back in the race as sneaker sales gather pace

Nike tries to get back in the race as sneaker sales gather pace
Athletic footwear thrives as consumers seek wider choice of brands beyond the famous swoosh

As Nike tries to lift itself out of a sales slump with a new chief executive on Monday, the rest of the athletic footwear industry is booming.

Retailers are expanding their reliance on brands beyond the famed swoosh.

Foot Locker, one of the largest global sneaker retailers, posted a return to comparable store sales growth in its most recent quarter, due in part to the chain diversifying its assortment of products to brands beyond Nike.

Designer Brands Inc, which operates DSW shoe stores across North America, is also expanding its sneaker offerings, while Fleet Feet, a US-based chain of running speciality stores, said it “has never seen product this strong” from trainer brands.

Designer Brands chief executive Doug Howe told investors last month the company is in the midst of a “pivot” to offering more athletic footwear — up to 42 per cent of its assortment this year, from 32 per cent in 2017. While overall sales at US DSW stores fell 3 per cent in the most recent quarter, sales of athletic footwear, including Nike, rose 16 per cent.

The positive momentum at sneaker chains across consumer categories — from fashion, to family, to speciality — underscores the optimism for athletic footwear writ large, if not for Nike. Earlier this month, the swoosh withdrew its financial guidance for the year and reported a 10 per cent drop in sales over the three-month period ended in August.

“Footwear is interesting because it can be recession-proof in a sense,” said Matt Priest, chief executive of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America, a US trade association.

Even in adverse economic conditions with interest rates high, albeit coming down, “people still buy shoes in lieu of a new car or a washing machine”, he said.

Global retail sales of sports footwear totalled $165bn in 2023, up 23 per cent from 2018, according to Euromonitor. Growth occurred in every geographic region, led by Latin America, up 38 per cent, while Asia Pacific and North America remained the top two largest markets.

In the US, where 99 per cent of footwear is imported, sneakers are on the rise. Imports of athletic shoes are up more than 10 per cent year over year through August, Priest said, compared to a rise of just 1 per cent for all footwear.

Industry experts and retailers say the segment is performing well in part because of the broader “casualisation” of society, in which trainers are increasingly acceptable footwear in the workplace and for going out. 

“Once you discover that you can wear sneakers for almost everything, you hardly ever go back to heels”, Foot Locker chief executive Mary Dillon said last month. 

The fortunes of Foot Locker were once so closely tied to Nike that both companies cited one another for years in regulatory filings as their sole significant customer.

The proportion of Foot Locker’s inventory from Nike and its subsidiary Jordan brand peaked at 75 per cent in 2020, falling to 65 per cent last year.

At an investor conference last month, Dillon said Nike would “always” be an important partner, but emphasised the chain’s expanded offering of other brands, including Hoka, New Balance and On.

“Customers are voting. People want choice in this category. It’s very clear. They’re buying multiple brands and . . . using them for lots of different occasions,” Dillon said.

Some of the increased competitiveness in athletic footwear can be attributed to factors precipitated by Nike.

In 2017, the industry leader announced an aggressive plan to shift its sales strategy towards a direct-to-consumer model, moving away from what it called “mediocre retail”. This opened up shelf space at chains like Foot Locker for other brands.

That same year, Nike debuted its transformational Vaporfly 4% running shoe with improved foam and a carbon fibre plate in the sole, setting off an innovation arms race across the industry.

But Nike executives acknowledged the company pushed too hard into direct and online sales and failed to catch up with consumers who returned to shopping in stores as pandemic lockdowns eased. It is now working to win back retail partners.

“Our teams have been closely engaging with our partners since we acknowledged some of the mis-steps related to over-centring on direct [sales]”, said Matthew Friend, Nike’s chief financial officer, this month.

Foot Locker has said it expects a “return to growth” with Nike this year. Victor Ornelas, senior director of vendor management at Fleet Feet, a speciality chain for runners with 280 locations across the US, told the FT that “we have experienced an increase in energy and connections” from Nike beginning this year.

UK-based athletic shoe chain JD Sports posted falling profits for the half-year through August, due in part to the closure of a distribution centre and acquisition and divestment costs. But chief executive Régis Schultz told reporters: “Nike will be fine, it’s a question of time, it’s a strong brand.”*

Still, brands other than Nike have stepped up. At Foot Locker’s flagship store in New York City, autumn displays this month featured Timberland boots and Ugg slides, as well as prominent showcases for New Balance and Hoka.

Ornelas of Fleet Feet said brands are distinguishing themselves with footwear that can be used for various purposes — fusing the latest technology of performance foam soles, useful for running, with an upper part of the shoe in neutral colours that can be worn with a range of outfits.

“We are heavy into booking season right now for [shoes that will arrive in spring] 2025, and we’ve never seen product this strong,” said Ornelas.

CrunchBase : The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Form Energy Powers Up With $4

The Week’s 10 Biggest Funding Rounds: Form Energy Powers Up With $405M

What a week for big rounds — as nine of them hit $100 million or more. While there were no multibillion-dollar rounds like last week, there was still a lot of money invested into everything from renewable energy to a soccer entertainment company.

1. Form Energy, $405M, renewable energy: The biggest round of the week was one of the biggest this year in the renewables space. Form Energy, a renewable energy company developing and commercializing multiday energy storage systems, raised a $405 million Series F led by T. Rowe Price. Long-duration energy storage has proven to be a tough nut to crack, but Form has been able to get some commercial traction as it looks to ramp up manufacturing operations and commercial deployments of its iron-air battery systems. The Somerville, Massachusetts-based company, founded in 2017, has raised a total of $1.5 billion in a mix of equity and grants, per Crunchbase.

2. (tied) City Therapeutics, $135M, biotech: The big biotech raise this week came from a brand-new company. City Therapeutics launched with a $135 million Series A led by Arch Venture Partners. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech firm is building a product engine for RNAi therapeutics across multiple diseases.

2. (tied) EvenUp, $135M, legal: EvenUp, a legal tech startup creating artificial intelligence products for the personal injury sector, raised a $135 million Series D led by Bain Capital Ventures at a valuation of more than $1 billion. The San Francisco-based startup’s platform is powered by an AI model trained on hundreds of thousands of injury cases, medical records and internal legal knowledge. The platform helps with document generation and case and negotiation preparation. Founded in 2019, EvenUp has raised $235 million, according to the company. Legal tech has seen a huge bump this year — mainly thanks to AI. Per Crunchbase data, legal tech startups have already raised $1.9 billion this year. Last year, VC-backed legal tech startups raised less than $1 billion. The EvenUp raise is the second largest of the year thus far. In July, Vancouver-based legal tools platform Clio locked up a $900 million Series F at a $3 billion valuation.

4. AtVenu, $130M, event management: San Clemente, California-based startup AtVenu, which helps manage retail sales at live events, raised $130 million from Sixth Street. The firm provides payments and inventory logistics software to help artists, venues and others manage the sale of merchandise, food and beverages at live events like festivals and sports games. Founded in 2012, the company has raised $161 million, per Crunchbase.

5. Maven Clinic, $125M, healthcare: New York-based teletherapy startup Maven Clinic raised a $125 million Series F funding round led by StepStone Group that values the startup at $1.7 billion. Maven partners with employers and health plans to provide clinical support concerning preconception, family building, pregnancy, parenting and menopause. The company previously raised a $90 million Series E led by General Catalyst.

6. (tied) Auger, $100M, supply chain management: Bellevue, Washington-based Auger launched this week with a $100 million seed round led by Oak HC/FT. The new startup was founded by Dave Clark, former CEO of Amazon’s worldwide consumer division and co-CEO at Flexport. Clark resigned at Flexport last year after board pressure and a company shakeup. He’s back in the startup realm now, developing an AI-powered tool for existing inventory management platforms to deliver real-time insights.

6. (tied) Cytovale, $100M, health diagnostics: Cytovale, a medical diagnostics company focused on detection technologies to diagnose fast-moving and immune-mediated diseases, raised a $100 million Series D led by Sands Capital. Founded in 2013, the San Francisco-based company has raised nearly $229 million, per Crunchbase.

6. (tied) Glooko, $100M, healthcare: Palo Alto, California-based Glooko, an integrated digital health company for patients, providers, biopharma and medical device firms, secured a $100 million Series F led by Georgian. Founded in 2010, the company has raised $301 million, per Crunchbase.

6. (tied) Toca Football, $100M, sports: Toca Football, a soccer experience company that offers training center and entertainment venues, raised approximately $100 million from several investors. Founded in 2016, the Costa Mesa, California-based company has raised more than $240 million, per Crunchbase.

10. (tied) Imprint, $75M, payments: New York-based Imprint, which creates co-branded credit cards, raised a $75 million Series C led by Khosla Ventures at a $600 million valuation. Founded in 2020, the company has raised $202 million, per Crunchbase.

10. (tied) Judo Bio, $75M, biotech: Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Judo Bio, a biotechnology company developing oligonucleotide medicines delivered to the kidney, launched with $100 million in initial financing, including a Series A of $75 million co-led by Atlas Venture, Droia Ventures and TCG.

>>> weekend Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-Boeing is set to cut 17,000 jobs and delay the first delivery of its 777X jet due to deepening losses and the effects of a weekslong strike by its largest labor union. Chief executive Kelly Ortberg announced the cuts, equivalent to 10% of the workforce, in a message to staff. Financial troubles have escalated at Boeing since the start of the year, with regulators demanding a slowdown in manufacturing to fix quality problems. Last month, 33,000 workers walked out of Boeing plants in Washington state after members of the machinists' union rejected a new contract, halting production of the company's 767 and 777 planes, cutting revenue and putting strain on suppliers and customers. S&P warned of a possible downgrade of Boeing's bonds to junk status, and analysts expect the company to raise at least $10B in new equity to shore up its financial position.
-China plans to issue more debt to boost the property market, recapitalize banks, and assist cash-strapped local governments. Minister of Finance Lan Fo’an announced the measures at a briefing in Beijing, suggesting that the government plans more stimulus measures to boost growth. The central government has significant room to increase the deficit and debt. Markets are waiting for signs that Beijing will increase fiscal spending to back up monetary stimulus plans amid doubts over the strength of the world's second-largest economy. The government will issue bonds to enable local governments to buy back idle land from developers and some of China's millions of unsold new homes. A special-purpose bond will be issued to help large banks replenish their capital, enhancing their ability to lend. Beijing will also provide more help to groups such as students and low-income earners.
-US bank stocks reached their highest level since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank on Friday, as better-than-expected profits from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo boosted hopes of an economic "soft landing" in the country. Quarterly earnings fell at both the largest and fourth-largest US banks by assets, with JPMorgan's net income declining 2% to $12.9B and Wells' falling 11% to $5.1B. Analysts had forecast JPMorgan's quarterly net income of $12.1B and Wells' $4.5B. JPMorgan's shares rose 4.4% in New York, while Wells' gained 5.6%. The KBW bank index, which tracks 24 of the country's largest lenders, jumped more than 3%, pushing the sector past its most recent high in February 2023 and to its highest close since April 2022. The earnings from JPMorgan and Wells are the latest sign that the Federal Reserve may have been able to tackle inflation without tipping the economy into recession.
-Tesla shares closed down nearly 9% on Friday, wiping $67B from the company's market valuation. Elon Musk's Robotaxi event disappointed investors with a lack of detail about a planned fleet of autonomous "Cybercabs". Tesla remains the most valuable car company in the world, with a market capitalization of $696B. Musk promised the new two-seated vehicle would be available for less than $30,000 and in production by the end of 2026, if it secures regulatory approval. However, he did not provide details on the technology behind the robotaxis or how he would reduce the cost of the self-driving vehicles.
-Sir Demis Hassabis, co-founder and CEO of Google DeepMind, has been awarded the Nobel Prize in chemistry for unlocking the structure of every protein known to humanity. The chemistry Nobel, shared with John Jumper and David Baker, was won for predicting the structure of every protein known to humanity using AlphaFold AI software. Hassabis now focuses on climate change and healthcare, working on six drug development programs with Eli Lilly and Novartis, focusing on disease areas like cancers and Alzheimer's. He expects to have a drug candidate in clinical trials within two years. Hassabis' other areas of focus include using AI to accurately model the climate and crossing the ultimate frontier in AI research: inventing machine intelligence at par with human intelligence.
-Tokyo will become the first part of Japan to ban customer harassment of service workers, amid a perceived worsening of consumer behavior linked to the return of inflation. The ordinance, passed by the metropolitan assembly, declares a blanket ban on customer harassment and calls on society to join in the effort to prevent abuse. This strikes a blow at the mantra of corporate Japan that "the customer is God." Economists argue that companies' reluctance to upset customers by raising prices was one of the reasons the Japanese economy spent so long mired in deflation. Now that sustained inflation has returned, senior executives in the restaurant, hospitality, and retail sectors say customers are unhappy.
-Iran has urged oil-rich Gulf states to remain neutral following a missile attack on Israel, as it seeks to maintain a diplomatic drive in the Middle East amid fears of an all-out war. The Islamic republic has cautioned its Arab neighbors not to facilitate an Israeli response, such as allowing Israel's war planes to use their airspace. The move came after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government vowed a "deadly" response to Iran's missile attack and intensified its offensive against Hizbollah in Lebanon. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi are concerned that if Iran feels under grave threat, it could strike their oil infrastructure if Israel targets the republic's energy facilities. Iran is seeking to maintain a fragile rapprochement with arch-rivals like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, urging them to discuss their differences and misunderstandings to resolve regional issues.
-TD Bank, a Canadian lender, has been fined over $3B in penalties for failing to maintain an anti-money laundering program, failing to file accurate currency transaction reports, and conspiracy to launder money. The bank was a hotbed for money-laundering, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing three years ago. Despite the bank's slogan as "America's Most Convenient Bank," executives claimed it was primed for growth in the US. The fines are the largest ever under the US's Bank Secrecy Act, which requires banks to be vigilant of suspicious money flows. TD's chief executive has announced plans to step down. The bank has also been hit with the largest civil penalty against a bank in the US Treasury's history. The fines are the largest ever under the Bank Secrecy Act.
-France's conservative premier, Michel Barnier, has unveiled a budget proposal that includes tax increases on businesses and wealthy individuals, a reversal of President Emmanuel Macron's pro-business policies. This reversal signals his diminishing political influence. French companies and foreign investors are anticipating further policy reversals and government belt-tightening that may damage fragile growth. The unstable business climate has already caused them to lose a deal in which a European company was circling a French one. The real problem is the uncertainty, as they struggle to tell clients what will happen next.
-Israeli forces have wounded two UN soldiers, marking the second consecutive day of attacks on peacekeepers in southern Lebanon. The strikes on the Unifil force deployed along Israel and Lebanon's de facto border have drawn international condemnation, following a military assault by Israeli forces in the south of the country. US defense secretary Lloyd Austin urged Israel to ensure the safety of the UN peacekeepers and called for a diplomatic solution as soon as possible. The UN mission described the fire on its post as a "serious development" and put UN peacekeepers at serious risks. The governments of France, Italy, and Spain, which contribute manpower to Unifil, condemned the "targeting" of peacekeepers, calling the attacks unjustifiable and urging an immediate end.

NEW YORK TIMES
-Former President Donald J. Trump has been a significant figure in international politics since leaving the White House, meeting with foreign leaders and operating from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida. Finland, a country seeking to join NATO to counter Russian aggression, sought Trump's support to ensure the U.S. Senate would ratify its membership bid. Finnish ambassador Mikko Hautala privately spoke with Trump to persuade him of the merits of joining the alliance, aiming to avoid opposition from Trump, who has long been hostile towards NATO. The strategy worked, and Trump remained publicly silent, allowing the Senate to approve Finland's admission to the alliance in August 2022. If Trump had spoken out against the move, it would have taken only 34 votes to block the two-thirds supermajority needed for ratification.
-Former President Barack Obama's admonition of Black men who are not "feeling the idea" of having a female president was a blunt and urgent statement that could potentially alienate a vital group of Democratic voters. Obama's remarks, which he made during his campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris, were seen as an urgent call to action to push Harris to victory. However, some Democrats saw Obama's tone as a threat to scapegoat some of the Democratic Party's most reliable supporters, alienating voters who may have grown disillusioned but are still persuadable.
-Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, has announced plans to form a bipartisan council of advisers on policy if she wins the White House. The move is part of the Harris campaign's strategy to court Republicans disaffected with former President Donald J. Trump. Harris has campaigned with former Representative Liz Cheney, the Wyoming Republican, and pledged to appoint a Republican to her cabinet if elected. At a campaign event in Scottsdale, Arizona, Harris said the council would be an attempt to "put some structure" around policy discussions that reach across the aisle. She emphasized the importance of having a healthy two-party system and emphasized the need for good ideas from all parties.
-Florida residents returned to neighborhoods impacted by power outages and debris as tens of thousands of emergency workers began repairing the destruction caused by Hurricane Milton. Initial assessments indicated that the damage inflicted by the storm, which made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane on Wednesday night south of Sarasota, was not as catastrophic as experts had feared, in large part because a dreaded surge of seawater around Tampa Bay never materialized. The storm cut an uneven path of damage across the state, submerging whole neighborhoods on the Gulf Coast while leaving others largely untouched and demolishing homes in unpredictable lines of tornadoes that tore through parts near the Atlantic Coast.
-China's fence in the Himalayas separates Tibet from Nepal, with barbed wire and concrete ramparts separating the two countries. In Nepal's Humla District, residents argue that China is encroaching on Nepali territory along several points of this distant frontier. Chinese security forces are pressuring ethnic Tibetan Nepalis not to display images of the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, in Nepali villages near the border. The recent proliferation of Chinese barriers and other defenses has divided the people, with thousands of Tibetans who once escaped Chinese government repression by fleeing to Nepal almost entirely vanishing.
-Boeing's new CEO, Kelly Ortberg, has announced plans to reduce its workforce by 10%, or about 17,000 jobs, as part of a restructuring effort to cut costs and improve plane production. The announcement comes as Boeing deals with a costly and disruptive strike that began nearly a month ago when members of its largest union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, rejected a contract offer and walked off the job. The union represents over 33,000 Boeing employees. Boeing also reported $5B in new costs associated with several commercial and defense programs. Ortberg said that restoring the company requires tough decisions and structural changes to ensure it stays competitive and delivers for customers over the long term. The cuts, which will include layoffs and not filling positions as employees leave, amount to a 10% reduction of Boeing's 170,000 employees.
-Rescuers are searching for survivors and bodies in central Beirut after Israeli airstrikes in two densely populated neighborhoods spread fear that no place in the country was safe from the Israeli military onslaught against Hezbollah. The Israeli airstrikes killed at least 22 people and wounded over 100, the deadliest attack in Beirut in over a year of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group. The area hit is home to both Sunni and Shiite Muslims, and many residents fear the strikes will intensify sectarian tensions in Beirut. Since the war escalated last month, most Israeli airstrikes near Beirut have targeted predominately Shiite neighborhoods in the city's southern suburbs, where Hezbollah holds sway. The conflict raged as Israeli Jews prepared to observe Yom Kippur for the first time since the October 7 attacks.
-Thermite, a mixture of aluminum and iron oxide, has been used to devastating effect in both world wars. In Ukraine, it has been used primarily in artillery shells and hand grenades. Now, it is being attached to drones that sweep over Russian defensive positions, raining burning metal over the enemy before crashing. The flames ignite Russian troops' vegetation, exposing them and their equipment to direct attack. The dragon drones are part of the revolution of drone warfare that has transformed the battlefield, becoming a laboratory for improvisation and adaptation. Captain Viacheslav, who shared videos of his pilots testing the drones and using them in combat outside Pokrovsk, in eastern Ukraine, said it worked quite well. As more drones fill the skies, Ukrainian soldiers began posting dozens of videos of the attacks on social media, hoping to spark fear along with fire.

NEW YORK POST
-Meghan McCain threatened to share her late father's honest thoughts about Kamala Harris after the vice president invoked the memory of John McCain at an Arizona campaign rally. The 39-year-old pundit claimed that Democrats have "bastardized" her father's memory for their own political aims. She wrote on X, "Now, I know democrats want to reinvent history and turn my Dad into any illusion you guys need him to be depending on the political moment you need to bastardize his memory for." McCain issued the threat after Harris shared an anecdote of an interaction she had with the late Arizona senator in 2018, prior to his death from a brain tumor. Early voting is down significantly from 2020, and the data hold bad news for this candidate. Hurricane Milton produced dozens of tornadoes and rainfall estimates that topped more than a foot across west-central Florida, but a sight now opening up across many counties is that of sinkholes.
-Uber and Lyft have been enforcing lockouts on their New York City rideshare apps to avoid paying millions of dollars in pay. The lockouts are an attempt to make drivers appear busier on paper, potentially saving the companies nearly $30 million in pay by convincing the city not to raise a key portion of its minimum wage formula during its annual review. The frequent lockouts, which come without warning, have left Big Apple drivers scrambling to support their families. Uber and Lyft have told drivers they are forced to "limit access" because of rules from New York City's Taxi and Limousine Commission. Uber spokesperson Josh Gold stated that the characterization of lockouts as a loophole is inaccurate and has asked for a correction.

>>> Barrons Weekend Summary

Cover:
-The US opioid crisis has led to over 290,000 Americans dying from prescription-related overdoses, with Purdue Pharma agreeing to billions of dollars in legal penalties and pleading guilty to criminal charges. Pharmacies and drug distributors have signed their own global settlements. Pharmacy-benefit managers (PBMs) are often overlooked, but a Barron's investigation reveals that they enabled sales of opioids at a peak of the epidemic. During a 12-month period ending in late 2017, the three largest PBMs received about $400M in rebates and fees from Purdue. These transactions have been treated like state secrets, but Barron's is reporting on the details for the first time. PBMs have been accused by the Federal Trade Commission of inflating insulin prices, but they claim to work to make insulin more affordable and defend themselves against the FTC lawsuit. The industry is dominated by CVS Caremark, UnitedHealth's Optum Rx, and Cigna's Express Scripts, which control nearly 80% of the market for prescription claims.

Interview:
-The housing-affordability crisis in America has been a long-standing issue, with mortgage rates still double their pandemic level and the number of homes for sale at a four-year record. However, existing-home prices continue to rise, and shares of home builders are nearing a peak. Economists are incorrectly evaluating the housing market based on the volume of existing-home sales, which are close to recessionary lows. Ivy Zelman, executive vice president of real estate research firm Zelman & Associates, explains that the lack of supply is the main reason for the market's decline. She argues that the housing market is not an indicator of a recession, but rather a healthy market. The NAR settlement, which bars real estate agents from communicating about commission rates on most home listings, is not the only factor contributing to the market's weakening. The housing market is not an indicator of a recession, and the industry's outlook remains rosy.

Tech Trader:
-T-Mobile US has been a dominant player in the wireless market for years, using lower prices, flexible contracts, and a 5G rollout to attract customers from AT&T and Verizon. Recently, T-Mobile has taken a lead in providing broadband to homes using its 5G connections, known as fixed wireless. T-Mobile's shares have returned 86% over the past three years, against a 33% return for the S&P 500 index. However, the company's fixed-wireless subscribers are slowing down, with the pace of additions slowing down in the second quarter. Raymond James analyst Frank Louthan believes fixed-wireless access will end up with roughly 10% of the primary home broadband in the U.S. The main drawback for fixed-wireless access is the slow speeds, which may make it more of a niche product.

The Trader:
-Cognizant Technology Solutions, a leading provider of outsourcing services for the healthcare and financial sectors, is facing a cold shoulder from investors due to the push for more jobs in the U.S. and "nearshoring" with allies closer to home. The company, based in Teaneck, N.J., has nearly 75% of its employees based in India. The stock is down 1.4% this year after falling 3% to $74.50, along with Indian peers. However, Cognizant plans to boost growth by acquiring Belcan, a provider of engineering research and development services, for $1.2B earlier this year. The addition of Belcan, whose customers include the US Navy, Airbus AIR, NASA, and Rolls-Royce, will help Cognizant diversify its business. The Belcan deal is expected to boost overall revenue in the near term, with Jefferies analyst Surinder Thind suggesting it could add between $200M and $300M in revenue over the rest of 2024.
-Healthcare stocks have seen a significant increase in recent years, with shares of mounjaro maker Eli Lilly soaring nearly 60%. However, the rest of the healthcare sector is still experiencing a cold. The Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF, trading under the symbol XLV, is up about 12% in 2024, compared to a more than 21% increase for the S&P 500 index. Lilly is the largest holding in the ETF, with a nearly 13% weighting. However, earnings are expected to increase 20% in 2025, following a 20% drop in 2023. The sector pulled forward three years of earnings into a single year due to the Covid-19 vaccine boom. Valuations are reasonable, with the XLV trading for 18 times 2025 earnings estimates, a discount to the broader market. Insider selling in the sector has plummeted, suggesting further upside potential.

Features:
-In 2024, property and casualty insurers have been a significant player in the stock market, with even hurricanes not affecting investor interest. Hurricane Milton hit Florida's Gulf Coast, causing insured losses of $40-$50B. P&C stocks, such as Chubb, Allstate, Travelers, and Progressive, have seen average gains of over 30%. Milton weakened to a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall, avoiding a direct hit on the heavily populated Tampa metropolitan area. The storm could cause more turmoil in the Florida homeowners insurance market, where rates are high and policies are sometimes unobtainable. Citizens Property Insurance, the largest carrier in the $19 billion market, has a nearly 20% market share.
-Egg prices in the US increased this fall due to the avian influenza outbreak, which has affected poultry farms and dairy herds. The consumer price index for eggs increased 8.4% from August to September, with the average price of a dozen large Grade-A eggs in a US city rising from $2.07 in September 2023. The increase in egg prices comes after a new wave of infections in US chicken farms reduced the egg supply just as demand was climbing. The Department of Agriculture spokesperson stated that supply tightness related to bird flu and strong demand were the primary drivers of higher egg prices. The outbreak has not been completely contained, and the Department of Agriculture has emphasized the importance of addressing the issue to ensure the safety of consumers.

European Trader:
-Rio Tinto is set to buy Arcadium Lithium for $6.7B, aiming to diversify its operations beyond its core products of iron ore, copper, and aluminum. The acquisition is an all-cash transaction, with Arcadium Lithium being acquired for $5.85 a share, a 90% premium to the stock's closing price on October 4. CEO Jakob Stausholm described the acquisition as a significant step forward in Rio Tinto's long-term strategy, creating a world-class lithium business alongside its leading aluminum and copper operations. Rio Tinto's London-listed shares slipped 0.6% after the deal was announced, while its American depositary receipts fell 1.4% to $65.71. Arcadium Lithium's Sydney-listed shares spiked 31% to $5.54. The acquisition also boosted some of Arcadium's peers, with Albemarle climbing 1.7% and Sociedad Quimica y Minera De Chile up by the same amount.

Emerging Markets:
-Emerging markets experienced a boost in September after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates to keep the US economy humming. Chinese policymakers stepped up their efforts to stabilize their struggling economy, which lowers interest-rate costs for companies and entices US investors to get more for their dollars abroad. China also took coordinated steps to stabilize the situation, including bigger interest rate cuts, proposals to support the domestic stock market, and vows for more fiscal stimulus. This sent Chinese stocks soaring, making them the best asset class in the past month with a 30% gain. Emerging markets have been in the shadows of US stocks for the past decade, but in August and September, they started to outperform, returning 8.4%, beating the S&P 500 by four percentage points. However, details on China's stimulus are still a mystery, and volatility is likely to continue in coming months as investors analyze its effectiveness. Despite this, fund managers see the new stance from policymakers as a marked change that should help the market in the near term.

Commodities:
-Energy stocks are often bought for their high dividends, which can pay off over several years. However, the hottest trade in energy is making options bets that oil prices will soar over $100 per barrel. This hit-or-miss trade can either pay off with huge gains or be a total loss if prices don't reach $100. Oil still has a long way to go to reach $100. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was down 0.6% to $78.89 per barrel on Friday, while West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, was down 0.8% to $75.28. Traders have placed an unusual number of bullish call options since the conflict between Israel and Iran has heated up in the past two weeks. Oil prices have increased more than 10% since Israel caused pagers carried by members of Iranian-backed Hezbollah to blow up two weeks ago, escalating the war. The world now awaits Israel's response. Oil last hit $100 in 2022, propelled by the shock of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions.

Streetwise:
-PepsiCo recently reported its weakest sales result in four years, largely due to a slump at Frito-Lay. The decline in America's obesity rate has been attributed to households cutting costs, with 40.3% of U.S. adults being obese. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have stated that the drop is not statistically significant. PepsiCo trimmed its sales guidance following a decline for Frito-Lay North America. Morgan Stanley estimated that over seven million people are taking new class of obesity drugs, including knockoffs. This could explain why chips are down for Pepsi. However, hypothesis 2 is still a work in progress, as strange snack mash-ups may be a sign that Big Food is out of ideas. Some grocery stores have added Old El Paso Cinnamon Toast Crunch Dessert Taco Shells, leaving General Mills with few options but to introduce a “Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo Cookie Crisp” writes Jack Hough ironically. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta remained bullish on the earnings call, stating that Gen Z snacking patterns and food patterns favor the growth of their category. He called Frito-Lay results a "normalization" after three years of fast growth, citing consumers reassessing their budgets and weak convenience-store traffic.