TheChek News Flow

Soleno Therapeutics makes first commercialised drug for extreme hunger caused by Prader-Willi syndrome

Neurocrine Biosciences is nearing a more than $2.5bn acquisition of a biotech behind the treatment for a rare genetic form of obesity, in the latest instance of a midsized drugmaker bulking up by striking deals. 

Neurocrine, a $13.2bn drugmaker specialising in neuropsychiatric medicines, is in advanced talks to buy Soleno Therapeutics, a biotech that makes the first commercialised drug to treat extreme hunger sparked by Prader-Willi syndrome.

Prader-Willi is triggered by genetics and emerges in childhood, leaving patients with an unshakeable desire to eat, known as hyperphagia, which can lead to obesity and other severe health complications. 

The potential sale could value Soleno in the low-to-mid $50s per share, or in excess of $2.5bn, according to people familiar with discussions. That price tag represents a premium to Soleno’s market value of around $2bn at Thursday’s close.

Shares in Soleno, which has long been earmarked as a takeover target because of the successful launch of its lead drug, jumped nearly 30 per cent over the past week, as the wider biotech sector was buoyed by a flurry of deals.

Discussions between Neurocrine and Soleno are progressing quickly and a deal could come together as soon as Monday, provided talks do not hit any last-minute snags, the people said.

Neurocrine and Soleno did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

Midsized drugmakers such as Neurocrine are increasingly competing with large pharmaceutical groups for deals during a frenzied period for biotech dealmaking. US-based biotech deals worth a total of $63.3bn were struck in the first three months of the year, the fifth-best quarter for biotech mergers and acquisitions during the past decade, according to data provider Dealogic. 

Last year, BioMarin, a drugmaker with a $10.3bn market value, struck a $4.8bn deal to buy rare disease-focused biotech Amicus Therapeutics, while Danish midsized drugmaker Genmab sealed an $8bn acquisition of cancer drug developer Merus. 

An acquisition of Soleno would be Neurocrine’s first sizeable deal, adding a lucrative drug that could generate as much as $2.3bn a year in peak sales, according to HC Wainwright analysts.

Between its launch in March last year and the end of 2025, 1,250 patients were started on Soleno’s once-daily hyperphagia pill, known as Vykat, generating $190mn in sales. 

Shares in Soleno reached a decade high last July, giving the biotech a market capitalisation of nearly $4.5bn. The shares have since retreated.

Neurocrine already has several approved medicines, including Ingrezza, a treatment for an involuntary movement disorder caused by long-term use of psychiatric medication, known as tardive dyskinesia. It also has a wide-ranging pipeline of experimental medicines targeted at schizophrenia, epilepsy and obesity. 

Last week capped a busy quarter for biotech dealmaking. Eli Lilly, the world’s biggest drugmaker by market value, struck a deal worth up to $7.8bn to buy sleep medicine drugmaker Centessa Pharmaceuticals, while Biogen bought Apellis Pharmaceuticals for $5.6bn.

China’s CATL wants to electrify global shipping fleets but hurdles remain to large-scale adoption

CATL, the world’s biggest battery maker, has vowed to “spare no effort” to electrify parts of the global shipping fleet as it tries to replicate its success with electric vehicles on the high seas.

The Chinese group, which controls 37 per cent of the market for EV batteries and 22 per cent for energy storage systems in power grids and data centres, has deployed batteries on about 900 ships, mostly smaller craft operating close to the Chinese coastline, at ports or in rivers.

Electrifying parts of the maritime sector is central to Beijing’s broader goals of decarbonisation and reducing reliance on foreign resources. The International Maritime Organization aims to halve global shipping emissions, which account for 3 per cent of total carbon emissions, by 2050.

Batteries, which are best suited to nearshore operations, are among a suite of alternatives to highly polluting heavy-fuel oil. Chinese companies are also exploring commercialisation of clean fuels such as green methanol, ammonia and hydrogen.

The hunt for alternatives has gained greater urgency after the world’s energy supply chains were rocked by US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital transport route for oil and gas from the Middle East.

Neil Beveridge, who leads Bernstein’s China energy research, said the long-term consequence would be an acceleration of “the global electrification megatrend”.

In a sign of CATL’s commitment to the sector, Su Yi, who leads its marine business unit, told the FT she planned to more than double her team’s size this year to about 500.

The current focus, Su said, is to produce batteries that meet the “extremely high” requirements of operating on water, including a long lifespan for battery cells and safety in ocean conditions.

CATL declined to provide a sales target, but a spokesperson said it was “very confident in the strong market potential”.

The battery maker reported a net profit of Rmb72.2bn ($10.4bn) in 2025, up 42 per cent on the previous year, driven by strong demand in energy storage systems. Its Shenzhen-listed shares have risen about 13 per cent since the start of the Iran war.

CATL is seeking to collaborate with ports and governments to create a new marine battery industry from scratch. Municipalities such as Guangzhou, one of China’s shipbuilding hubs, have started offering subsidies for some battery-powered vessels.

“We will spare no effort in investing in R&D, human resources and materials to build the supply chain for this industry,” said Su.

The company began exploring the marine battery sector in 2017 and has a dedicated subsidiary for marine powertrains and shore-side facilities. It is working to expand its nascent battery-swap model for vessel operators, similar to its highway network in China, where commercial trucks can change batteries on long-haul trips.

While still far more expensive than the heavy fuels used in shipping, a marine battery-swapping service will at least remove the price of batteries from vessel acquisition costs, said CATL.

Battery prices have declined sharply over the past two decades, with lithium-ion costs falling 90 per cent since 2010. Cheaper batteries have been fundamental to the boom in EVs.

However, large-scale adoption of purely battery-powered deep-sea vessels has yet to materialise because the energy density is low compared with fuels, according to a 2024 pre-feasibility study by the Denmark-based Mærsk Mc-Kinney Møller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping.

The research group found that a “hybrid” approach — combining battery-powered components with internal combustion engines — “offers a promising solution”.

Researchers are also studying the risk of fire and explosions at sea, where rescue or evacuation would be more difficult than on land. Systems in marine environments will require greater maintenance and oversight than the largely standardised batteries used in EVs.

Maritime business is a long-held ambition of CATL founder Robin Zeng, who majored in marine engineering as an undergraduate before moving on to electronics for master’s study.

“Ship engineering was his original discipline and passion,” said Su.

Beyond the technical challenges of ensuring safety, reliability and low cost, scaling the business will require “system-level collaboration” across different ship designers, shipyards, ports and electricity grids, said Su. “These silos must be broken down.”

Physical AI is emerging as one of the next major industrial battlegrounds, with Japan’s push driven more by necessity than anything else. With workforces shrinking and pressure mounting to sustain productivity, companies are increasingly deploying AI-powered robots across factories, warehouses, and critical infrastructure.

Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said in March 2026 that it aims to build a domestic physical AI sector and capture a 30% share of the global market by 2040. The country already holds a strong position in industrial robotics, with Japanese manufacturers accounting for about 70% of the global market in 2022, according to the ministry.

Based on conversations with investors and industry executives, TechCrunch explored what’s driving that shift, how Japan’s approach differs from the U.S. and China, and where value is likely to emerge as the technology matures.

Several factors are driving adoption in Japan, including cultural acceptance of robotics, labor shortages driven by demographic pressures, and deep industrial strength in mechatronics and hardware supply chains, Woven Capital managing director Ro Gupta told TechCrunch.

“Physical AI is being bought as a continuity tool: how do you keep factories, warehouses, infrastructure, and service operations running with fewer people?” Hogil Doh, Global Brain general partner, also said. “From what I’m seeing, labor shortages are the primary driver.”

Japan’s demographic crunch is accelerating. The population declined for a 14th straight year in 2024; those of working age make up just to 59.6% of the total, a share projected to shrink by nearly 15 million over the next 20 years, Doh pointed out. It’s already reshaping how companies operate: a 2024 Reuters/Nikkei survey found labor shortages are the main force pushing Japanese firms to adopt AI.

“The driver has shifted from simple efficiency to industrial survival,” Sho Yamanaka, a principal with Salesforce Ventures, said in an interview with TechCrunch. “Japan faces a physical supply constraint where essential services cannot be sustained due to a lack of labor. Given the shrinking working-age population, physical AI is a matter of national urgency to maintain industrial standards and social services.”

Japan is stepping up efforts to advance automation across manufacturing and logistics, according to Mujin CEO and co-founder Issei Takino. The government has been promoting automation to address structural challenges such as labor shortages. Mujin, a Japanese company, has built software that lets industrial robots handle picking and logistics tasks autonomously. Mujin’s approach centers on software — specifically robotics control platforms — that allows existing hardware to perform more autonomously and efficiently, Takino said.

Where Japan has historically excelled is in the physical building blocks of robotics. Whether that advantage translates into the AI era is a more open question. The country continues to demonstrate strength in core robotics components such as actuators, sensors and control systems, according to Japan-based venture capitalists, while the U.S. and China are moving more quickly to develop full-stack systems that integrate hardware, software and data.

“Japan’s expertise in high-precision components – the critical physical interface between AI and the real world – is a strategic moat,” Yamanaka said. “Controlling this touchpoint provides a significant competitive advantage in the global supply chain. The current priority is to accelerate system-level optimization by integrating AI models deeply with this hardware.”

Hardware capabilities are strongest in China and Japan, with Japan particularly strong in robot motion control, while the U.S. leads in the service layer and market development, Takino said. Historically, many U.S. companies have leveraged their software strengths to build integrated businesses – similar to Apple – pairing strong software platforms with high-quality hardware sourced from Asia. However, this model may not fully translate to the emerging world of physical AI, Takino said.

“In robotics, and especially in Physical AI, it is critical to have a deep understanding of the physical characteristics of hardware,” Takino said. “This requires not only software capabilities, but also highly specialized control technologies, which take significant time to develop and involve high costs of failure.”

WHILL, a Tokyo- and San Francisco-based startup that makes autonomous personal mobility vehicles, is drawing on Japan’s “monozukuri,” or craftsmanship heritage, as it takes a broader, full-stack approach to global expansion, CEO Satoshi Sugie told TechCrunch. The company has developed an integrated platform combining electric vehicles, onboard sensors, navigation systems and cloud-based fleet management for short-distance and autonomous transport. The company is leveraging both Japan and the U.S. for development, using Japan to refine hardware and address aging population needs, and the U.S. to accelerate software development and test large-scale commercial models, Sugie noted.

The government is putting money behind the push. Under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japan has committed about $6.3 billion to strengthen core AI capabilities, advance robotics integration and support industrial deployment.

The shift from experimentation to real deployment is already underway. Industrial automation remains the most advanced segment, with Japan installing tens of thousands of robots each year, particularly in the automotive sector. Newer applications are also beginning to gain traction, Doh said.

“The signal is simple – customer-paid deployments rather than vendor-funded trials, reliable operation across full shifts, and measurable performance metrics such as uptime, human intervention rates and productivity impact,” Doh said.

In logistics, companies are deploying automated forklifts and warehouse systems, while in facilities management, inspection robots are being used in data centers and industrial sites.

Companies like SoftBank are already applying physical AI in practice, combining vision-language models with real-time control systems to enable robots to interpret environments and execute complex tasks autonomously.

In defense, where autonomous systems are becoming foundational, competitiveness will depend not just on platforms but on operational intelligence powered by physical AI, Terra Drone CEO Toru Tokushige told TechCrunch. Tokushige added that by combining operational data with AI, Terra Drone is working to enable autonomous systems to function reliably in real-world environments and support the advancement of Japan’s defense infrastructure.

Investment is shifting beyond hardware, with companies allocating more capital to orchestration software, digital twins, simulation tools and integration platforms, according to investors and industry sources.

Japan’s physical AI ecosystem is also evolving in ways that differ from traditional tech disruption models. Rather than a winner-take-all dynamic, industry participants expect a hybrid model, with established companies providing scale and reliability, while startups drive innovation in software and system design.

Large incumbents, including Toyota Motor Corporation, Mitsubishi Electric, and Honda Motor, retain significant advantages in manufacturing scale, customer relationships, and deployment capabilities. But startups are carving out critical roles in emerging areas such as orchestration software, perception systems, and workflow automation.

“The relationship between startups and established corporations is a mutually complementary ecosystem,” Yamanaka said. “Robotics requires heavy hardware development, deep operational know-how, and significant capital expenditure. By fusing the vast assets and domain expertise of major corporations with the disruptive innovation of startups, the industry can strengthen its collective global competitiveness.”

Japan’s defense ecosystem is also shifting away from dominance by large corporations toward greater collaboration with startups, the Terra Drone CEO said. Large companies remain focused on platforms, scale and integration, while startups are driving development in smaller systems, software and operations, with speed and adaptability becoming key competitive factors.

Companies like Mujin are developing platforms that sit above hardware, enabling multi-vendor automation and faster deployment across industries. Others, including Terra Drone, are applying similar approaches to autonomous systems, combining AI and operational data to support real-world applications at scale.

“The most defensible value will sit with whoever owns deployment, integration, and continuous improvement,” Doh said.

This is a weekly feature that runs down the week’s top 10 announced funding rounds in the U.S. Check out last week’s biggest funding deal roundup here.

Startup investors kept up the busy dealmaking pace this week with a number of big rounds. Top among them was a $1.75 billion Series D for Saronic, developer of autonomous vessels. Other big funding recipients hailed from sectors including fitness wearables, energy tech, cybersecurity and AI infrastructure, among others.

1. Saronic, $1.75B, autonomous ships: Austin-based Saronic, a defense tech startup focused on autonomous sea vessels, raised $1.75 billion in Series D funding, bringing total funding to around $2.6 billion. Kleiner Perkins led the round, which set a $9.25 billion valuation for the company, more than double its Series C level in 2025.

2. Whoop, $575M, fitness wearables: Whoop, a provider of wearable fitness technology and a subscription platform that tracks physiological data, secured $575 million in Series G funding. Collaborative Fund led the financing,which set a $10.1 billion valuation for the Boston-based company.

3. Valar Atomics, $450M, nuclear energy: El Segundo, California-based nuclear energy startup Valar Atomics, raised fresh capital at a valuation of $2 billion, according to a Bloomberg article citing unnamed sources. The financing reportedly included $340 million in equity funding and $110 million in debt.

4. EnerVenue, $300M, battery technology: EnerVenue, a developer of grid-scale energy storage technology, says it closed on a $300 million extension of its Series B preferred round led by Full Vision Capital. The Fremont, California-based company also appointed a new chief executive officer, Henning Rath.

5. Tenex.AI, $250M, cybersecurity: Sarasota, Florida-based AI-enabled cybersecurity startup Tenex picked up $250 million in Series B funding led by Crosspoint Capital Partners. The company said it plans to use the funds to hire more than 250 people and supplying them with AI technology that makes them “ten times more efficient.”

6. Also, $200M, micromobility: Also, an electric mobility company spun out of Rivian, raised $200 million in a Series C round ​backed by Greenoaks, DoorDash, and Prysm Capital. The Palo Alto, California-based startup’s product lineup includes bikes, small autonomous EVs for deliveries, and associated gear.

7. Starcloud, $170M, space tech: Starcloud, a space infrastructure startup focused on building orbital data centers, secured $170 million in Series A funding led by Benchmark and EQT. The financing sets a $1.1 billion valuation for the Redmond, Washington-based company, making it the fastest Y Combinator alum to achieve unicorn status after demo day, which was 17 months ago.

8. ScaleOps, $130M, cloud infrastructure: New York-based cloud and AI infrastructure startup ScaleOps landed $130 million in Series C funding. Insight Partners led the financing, which set a valuation of over $800 million for the 4-year-old company.

9. Ambrosia Biosciences, $100M, biotech: Boulder, Colorado-based Ambrosia Biosciences, a developer of next-generation oral therapeutics for obesity and related cardiometabolic diseases, picked up $100 million in Series B funding led by Blue Owl, Redmile Group and Deep Track Capital.

10. OpenFX, $94M, money transfer: OpenFX, provider of a platform to move money across borders, secured $94 million in Series A funding from backers including Accel, Atomico, M13, Northzone and Pantera Capital.

*** AI DRUG DISCOVERY — 2 NOTES ATTACHED ***

Following Anthropic's $400M acquisition of Coefficient Bio (reported by The Information / Eric Newcomer), we are publishing two complementary notes on the listed AI drug-discovery universe.

──────────────────────────────────────

NOTE 1 — SECTOR OVERVIEW & M&A CONTEXT

• The Coefficient Bio deal as a valuation anchor (~$40M/head acqui-hire premium)

• AI drug discovery supercycle: where we stand in 2026

• Strategic buyer landscape: Big Tech vs. Large Pharma

• M&A precedents and per-head valuation triangulation across 5 listed names

──────────────────────────────────────

NOTE 2 — DEEP DIVE: SDGR / RXRX / RLAY / ABSI / ABCL

• Individual profiles: platform, pipeline, financials, analyst consensus, catalysts

• Hierarchy of conviction: RLAY and ABSI as top picks

• 2026 catalyst calendar and comparative matrix

──────────────────────────────────────

TOP PICKS

▸ RLAY US — Phase 3 zovegalisib (BTD), $554M cash, multiple analyst upgrades to $19-22. M&A target for Novartis / Roche.

▸ ABSI US — Closest listed comparable to Coefficient Bio. $422M mktcap, generative AI antibody design, ABS-201 AGA data H2 2026. AZ / Lilly M&A angle.

CORE LONG

▸ SDGR US — SaaS compounder ($199M ACV, 74% gross margin), –58% from 52W high, Morningstar FV $26.66 vs. $11.55 current. Big Tech acquisition target.

WATCHLIST

▸ RXRX US — Post-Exscientia merger, 7 clinical readouts, CEO transition risk

▸ ABCL US — Premium platform, post-COVID revenue headwind, Lilly M&A optionality

All prices as of 1–5 April 2026. Please revert with any questions.

Laurent Chekroun

Graham Advisors SARL | Makor Capital Markets

Freienbach, Canton of Schwyz

Value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by the biggest margin in years

One of the last places to hide from this year’s stock-market turbulence is in danger.

Value stocks, or shares trading at low multiples of their book value, have quietly marched toward a banner year. Now the war in the Middle East is threatening to upend the trade, leaving investors few places to find refuge from fears over everything from rapid advances in artificial intelligence to geopolitical conflict.

The Russell 1000 Value Index is up 2.4% so far this year, beating the Russell 1000 Growth Index, which is down 9.1%, by the largest margin since 2022. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index is down 3.8% and recently notched its worst quarter in nearly four years.

Some of the stocks leading the value index higher are flash memory maker Sandisk SNDK 1.28%increase; green up pointing triangle, up 196% this year; Moderna MRNA -1.66%decrease; red down pointing triangle, up 67%; and Acadia Healthcare ACHC 1.23%increase; green up pointing triangle, which has added 69%.

But the gains for many value stocks are now at risk, with the escalating conflict in Iran roiling the stock market, sending oil prices ratcheting higher and sparking fears of an economic downturn. The Russell 1000 Value Index has fallen 4.3% since late February, when the U.S. and Israel launched a strike on Iran.

Shares of Nike NKE -0.99%decrease; red down pointing triangle have declined 29% over that stretch, while home builder Lennar LEN 1.23%increase; green up pointing triangle and Southwest Airlines LUV -1.65%decrease; red down pointing triangle have each slipped about 24%. Shares of banks, utilities and others closely linked to the economy—which often fit the bill of value stocks—have also fallen during that stretch.

“The wall of worry is under full construction,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management.

Stocks saw some respite in the early days of April, ending last week with gains. In the coming week, investors will get a better look at the health of the economy from fresh manufacturing data and a new read on inflation. Companies will also begin reporting earnings, with results due from Delta Air Lines DAL -1.24%decrease; red down pointing triangle and Constellation Brands STZ 0.07%increase; green up pointing triangle.

Value stocks began their ascendance months ago, with investors growing skeptical about the billions of dollars being funneled into AI technology and the threat that its tools pose to software companies. Some also picked up blue-chip stocks and shares of smaller companies in a bet that President Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation, as well as interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, would help ignite an economic rebound.

“That’s been a little bit on hold now,” said Travis Prentice, chief investment officer of Informed Momentum.

One segment of value stocks that have seen a boost from the war: energy companies. The S&P 500’s energy sector is up 33% for the year, with the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz sending oil prices to their highest levels since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent prices over $100 a barrel. The energy sector is the top-performer of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors.

The rally in value stocks marks a shift from the dominating trend since the financial crisis. Growth stocks have largely beaten value shares, fueled by the dizzying run-up of big tech companies such as Apple and Nvidia that have helped power stocks to records and historically expensive levels.

“We just got so carried away,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer at Rockefeller Global Family Office. “People started to question the sanity of all that.”

Value stocks remain much cheaper than big tech stocks. An exchange-traded fund tracking the Russell 1000 Value Index recently traded at 16 times projected earnings over the next 12 months, according to FactSet. Companies in the Russell 1000 Growth Index ETF traded at 24 times.

Some investors say they still expect big tech shares to outperform value stocks in the long run. Inflation has remained relatively steady, despite fears last year that Trump’s tariffs would send prices higher.

Earnings growth is also expected to be robust. Companies in the information-technology and communication-services sectors are expected to see profits jump by around 37% and 13%, respectively, this year, while industrials’ and financials’ earnings are projected to grow in the single digits, according to FactSet.

Still, some analysts warn that all bets are off if a prolonged war sets off an economic downturn, though most economists don’t currently expect a recession.

“That will hurt all value and growth stocks,” said U.S. Bank’s Sandven.

Beijing reserves airspace for 40 days, suggesting possible military activity ahead

TAIPEI—China has taken the unusual step of reserving swaths of offshore airspace without explanation for a period of 40 days, issuing alerts similar to those used to warn aviation authorities of Chinese military exercises, which typically last no more than a few days.

Beijing hasn’t declared any exercises in the area, sparking a new aviation mystery following an unexplained pause in military flights around Taiwan. The airspace reserved in the current alerts is hundreds of miles away from the self-governing island.

The alerts are in effect from March 27 through May 6, and haven’t previously been reported. Formally known as “Notice to Air Missions,” or Notams, such designations are intended to inform pilots and aviation authorities of temporary airspace hazards or restrictions.

Civil aviation appears unaffected, though coordination is needed for aircraft to transit such areas. The reserved airspace has no vertical ceiling—designated in the Notams as “SFC-UNL.”

“What makes this especially notable is the combination of SFC-UNL with an extraordinary 40-day duration—and no announced exercise,” said Ray Powell, director of the SeaLight project at Stanford University, which tracks Chinese maritime activity. “That suggests not a discrete exercise but a sustained operational readiness posture—and one that China apparently doesn’t feel the need to explain.”

If the zones are confirmed to be linked to exercises, the warnings “would represent a meaningful shift in how Beijing uses airspace control as a tool of military signaling,” Powell said.

China’s Ministry of Defense and Civil Aviation authorities haven’t issued statements about the Notams, which isn’t unusual, and didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The zones reserved by China cover a total area larger than Taiwan’s main island, including offshore airspace to the north and south of Shanghai, according to information available from the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration. They extend from the Yellow Sea facing South Korea, south to waters of the East China Sea facing Japan.

Some past Chinese drills have focused on establishing control of routes that might be used by the U.S. military in a potential conflict over Taiwan. The reserved airspace could “provide an opportunity to practice the kinds of air combat maneuvers that would be required in such a scenario,” said Christopher Sharman, director of the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute.

The Notams follow another recent mystery about China’s military intentions, when its air force paused what had been near-daily military flights near Taiwan—a lull that coincided with the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. China subsequently resumed the military flights.

Officials in Taiwan believe China is seizing an opportunity to increase its active military presence while U.S. attention is diverted by the conflict in the Middle East, a senior Taiwan security official said.

The current reservation of zones is “clearly aimed at Japan,” as China looks to deter U.S. allies and erode American military influence in the Indo-Pacific region, the official said.

The developments come alongside several politically significant events for China. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping had been scheduled to meet in Beijing around April 1, a summit that has been pushed back to mid-May.

Xi, meanwhile, has invited the leader of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, for a visit to China that is set to begin on Tuesday and expected to culminate with a meeting with the Chinese leader in Beijing. The KMT supports friendly ties with Beijing, in contrast with Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party, which advocates building up Taiwan’s defenses.

In addition, a U.S. congressional delegation recently visited Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. In Taiwan, U.S. senators urged the island’s legislature to promptly approve a large military budget to bolster the island’s defenses with U.S. arms purchases.

After the Trump administration approved $11 billion in arms sales for Taiwan, China’s military held large-scale drills around Taiwan in late December, dubbing them “Justice Mission 2025” and describing them as “a stern warning to Taiwan independence separatists and external interference forces.”

Also this week, Japan deployed long-range missiles capable of reaching China’s mainland as part of a military buildup on its strategic southwestern islands.

China has issued comparable reserved-airspace Notams along the same stretch of coast at least four times in the past 18 months, but those were shorter—typically 3-day blocks—said Ben Lewis, whose research organization, PLATracker, documents Chinese military activity.

The longer window likely means China’s military is “giving itself scheduling flexibility” for spring training, he said.

But the current political context could weigh against the possibility of large-scale Chinese military exercises, Lewis said.

“Given the impending visits by [KMT Chair] Cheng Li-wun this week and President Trump next month,” he said, “as of now I am not anticipating any major exercises or flare-ups.”