Barron's : Gold Mining Stocks Are a Bargain. Here’s How to Buy In.

Gold Mining Stocks Are a Bargain. Here’s How to Buy In.
The prospects for miners such as Barrick, Newmont, and Alamos look favorable as gold prices continue to rise.

Gold is rocking again, as it did in the 1970s when the metal was the decade’s hottest investment. The same can’t be said for gold mining stocks, but they deserve a closer look.

A lot has been going right for gold recently. Profligate U.S. fiscal policies have led to intractable $2 trillion annual deficits, while strong demand from central banks in the developing world has helped push the precious metal to a new high. Gold traded Friday at $2,750—and has risen 33% this year, its best annual gain since 1979. It has also left the S&P 500, which has returned 22%, in its dust.

Gold miners should outperform in a gold bull market due to operating leverage—profits ought to rise rapidly as the price of the commodity increases more than costs. That hasn’t been the case. The $15 billion VanEck Gold Miners, the top mining exchange-traded fund, has slightly underperformed the metal with a 30% gain. This continues a disappointing showing for the Gold Miners ETF which is still below its 2020 peak. It has been even worse for two industry leaders, Barrick Gold and Newmont , which have risen around 10% this year and are more than 30% below their record highs.

But the backdrop for the miners looks favorable, especially with gold potentially headed for $3,000 an ounce. Gold, for starters, is an underowned asset, even after ETFs like the $80 billion SPDR Gold Trust had their first quarterly net inflows since 2022 in the third quarter. The combined market value of leading miners is under $200 billion. That includes two well-run Canadian miners, Agnico Eagle Mines, which is the No. 3 global gold producer, and the higher-growth Alamos Gold; as well as two “streaming” companies, Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metal, which contract to buy gold and other metals over multiyear periods from producers but don’t actually mine it.

The miners also offer growth, some leverage to gold prices, and regular dividends, unlike the metal, which yields nothing. They can also be had at an attractive valuation, with depressed Newmont and Barrick trading for about 11 times projected 2025 earnings. “The equities are not pricing in current gold prices,” says Imaru Casanova, a portfolio manager at VanEck, which also runs the VanEck International Investors Gold fund. “They look relatively cheap.”

The industry does have some proving to do. Barrick, which is second to Newmont with about four million ounces of annual gold production, has been bedeviled by cost, production, and political issues. At around $20, the stock is where it stood in 2016 when gold was half its current price. The company’s pluses include a productive portfolio of mines led by a 60%-plus interest in a huge Nevada mine that it shares with Newmont. It has a balance sheet with virtually no net debt and plans to ramp up its copper production in coming years.

Africa is a chief investor concern, particularly a large mine in Mali where the increasingly anti-Western government is tangling with Barrick. CEO Mark Bristow, a South African with decades of experience operating in the sometimes dicey developing world, may just have the ability to handle it.

Newmont, the top global producer at about six million ounces annually, has seen its stock fall more than 20% since the company signaled higher costs and lower gold production heading into 2025 in its recent third-quarter profit report. “The market is frustrated that costs are eating into the margins at Newmont,” says Michael Dudas, an analyst at Vertical Research Partners. “But the correction in the stock is overdone.” He’s bullish on Newmont, the only gold stock in the S&P 500 index, and has a $60 price target.

Agnico Eagle is the class act of the industry, with 3.5 million ounces of annual production. It has a reputation for hitting production and cost targets, with operations primarily in politically safe Canada. “It has traded at a premium to the sector for 20 years for a good reason,” says Casanova.

The stock, at around $85, trades for about 22 times projected 2024 earnings, a 50% premium to Newmont and Barrick. CEO Ammar Al-Joundi emphasized costs, which are a few hundred dollars an ounce less than peers, and a commitment to grow value per share, on the company’s earnings conference call this past week. After the event, newsletter writer and gold bug Fred Hickey called Agnico “a shining example of how a gold mining company should be run.”

VanEck’s Casanova is partial to Alamos, a midtier miner with about half a million ounces of annual production. “It’s executing against plan, and has an excellent growth profile,” Casanova says.

The two streaming companies, Franco-Nevada and Wheaton, trade at a premium to the miners because they’re insulated from mining cost pressures as financial entities that provide capital to miners in return for future production.

Franco-Nevada, which has returned an impressive 15% annually since its 2007 initial public offering, gets about 75% of annual production from precious metals and the rest mostly from energy. There is some risk in the business, highlighted by a $1 billion write-down taken by Franco-Nevada last year when Panama closed a giant copper mine that interrupted the company’s streaming output.

The higher-growth Wheaton, which gets nearly all its streaming revenue from gold and silver, aims to boost its production to more than 800,000 gold equivalent ounces—with other metals converted to an equivalent amount of gold—by the end of the decade, up from about 600,000 this year. Rick Levin, a private investor, says the company is well managed. “It’s the J.P. Morgan of mine finance,” he says.

“The lack of available Western funding for mine development over the past decade has allowed Wheaton to negotiate tremendous streaming deals that allowed it to lock in low prices and other favorable terms,” Levin adds.

Given the risk of individual miners, investors may want to choose a mutual fund or ETF. The four top stocks in the VanEck Miners ETF—with a combined 35% of its assets—are Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Barrick, and Wheaton.

>>> US Close Dow +0.69% S&P +0.41% Nasdaq +0.80% Russell +0.61%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market closed with gains after yesterday's slide. The major indices closed off session highs, though, as buyer enthusiasm dissipated and some mega caps turned lower. Apple (AAPL 223.29, -2.62, -1.2%) was a standout in that respect, closing lower in response to earnings. Amazon.com (AMZN 197.93, +11.53, +6.2%) provided some offsetting support after its earnings results.

The upside bias stemmed from buy-the-dip interest and was in reaction to this morning's economic data, which supported the belief that the Fed will stay on a steady rate-cut path. The October jobs report was much weaker than expected, showing a huge miss relative to expectations even when accounting for the effects of the hurricanes and strikes.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 12,000 and private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 28,000. Also, the ISM Manufacturing Index was weaker than expected in October.

Treasuries had a volatile response to the data, keeping buying efforts in check in the equity market. The 10-yr yield dropped as low as 4.23% in response to the data, but settled at 4.36%, which is eight basis points higher than yesterday.

The equal-weighted S&P 500 still eked out a 0.1% gain and five S&P 500 sectors closed higher. The consumer discretionary sector was a standout, jumping 2.4% thanks to the gain in AMZN. The information technology sector was the next best performer, settling 0.6% higher.

On the flip side, the rate-sensitive real estate (-1.1%) and utilities (-2.3%) sectors were the worst performers in response to rising rates.
  • Nasdaq Composite: +21.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: +20.1% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +11.6% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +11.6% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +9.0% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • October Nonfarm Payrolls 12K (consensus 120K); Prior was revised to 223K from 254K, October Nonfarm Private Payrolls -28K (consensus 105K); Prior was revised to 192K from 223K, October Avg. Hourly Earnings 0.4% (consensus 0.3%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.4%, October Unemployment Rate 4.1% (Briefing.com consensus 4.1%); Prior 4.1%, October Average Workweek 34.3 (consensus 34.2); Prior was revised to 34.3 from 34.2
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it has reinvigorated the market's view that the Fed will stay on a steady rate-cut path that will include cutting the target range for the fed funds rate by 25 basis points at next week's FOMC meeting and again at the December FOMC meeting.
  • October S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI - Final 48.5; Prior 47.8
  • October Construction Spending 0.1% (consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.1% from -0.1%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that private construction activity was subdued in September.
  • October ISM Manufacturing Index 46.5% (consensus 47.6%); Prior 47.2%
    • The key takeaway from the report is that it has reinforced the understanding that conditions in the U.S. manufacturing sector remain weak.

Looking ahead to Monday, market participants will receive the September Factory Orders report at 10:00 ET.

WSJ : Iran Warns It Will Retaliate for Israel’s Attack

Iran Warns It Will Retaliate for Israel’s Attack
Comments by a top military official raise the risk of further escalation between the two foes

Iran is signaling it will respond to last weekend’s Israeli strikes on its soil, a move that would extend the cycle of violence between the two enemies and risk dragging the Middle East into a wider war.

Iran initially played down the Oct. 26 strike, which Israel aimed to calibrate to close out a series of direct attacks this year by the two sides. But the nature of the attack, which damaged Tehran’s most advanced air defenses and killed four soldiers, is now prompting more definitive talk of an Iranian retaliation.

“We will give an unimaginable response to the enemy,” Gen. Hossein Salami, the head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said Thursday after days of bellicose statements by senior Iranian officials.

Israel’s strikes on Iranian military and missile-production sites followed U.S. pressure to avoid hitting the country’s nuclear and oil facilities, which could be targets in further rounds of escalation. Oil prices were up 1.5% in trading Friday after the threatening Iranian statements, with concerns growing over a Middle East war that would interrupt supply.

Western officials say they believe Iranian decision makers are now debating how and whether Iran should respond, including whether an attack should come directly or from proxies outside Iran to offer a layer of deniability. Israeli officials also believe Iran is seriously considering a response and have warned they are willing to mount a far more aggressive attack in return.

Should Iran fail to respond it would lose face both among allies fighting Israel and among its supporters at home, according to Mohanad Hage Ali, a deputy director at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, a research institute in Beirut. That is creating increasingly tough rhetoric among Iranian officials over a response.

“The number of casualties—four soldiers—and the destruction caused by the strike probably was too big for them to swallow,” he said. The regime would rather respond than stop, but “given their vulnerabilities, that’s a massive risk,” he added.

Israel’s Oct. 26 attack exposed the vulnerability of Iran’s air defenses, and the Israeli military now claims to be able to fly freely in Iranian airspace.

In a sign that Iran might temper its response, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has refrained from promising harsh retaliation, as he has done after other attacks in the past.

Escalatory strikes from either side would put further demands on Israel’s military as it fights a multifront conflict against Iran’s Middle East allies and would risk a far more damaging war.

Israel invaded the Gaza Strip last year after the Hamas-led Oct. 7 attacks and destroyed much of the Palestinian group’s military, but it is still fighting pockets of resistance there amid long-moribund cease-fire talks.

In recent weeks, Israel has intensified an air and ground operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon that has killed much of the militia’s leadership and degraded its ability to attack. The Israeli military and other security forces are beginning to push for a diplomatic solution to that conflict, but any deal will be complicated given Israel’s security demands and Hezbollah’s still-powerful position in Lebanon.

In April, Tehran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel in response to an attack that killed several Iranian military officials gathered at a diplomatic building in Damascus. Israel’s response was a limited, targeted strike, which ended the back-and-forth. But Israel then provoked Iran again by killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in a military guesthouse in Tehran and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah with an airstrike in Beirut.

On Oct. 26, dozens of Israeli warplanes struck Iranian military assets in three provinces and knocked out three Russian-supplied S-300 air-defense systems, according to U.S. and Israeli officials. The assault impaired Iran’s ability to defend against a future attack.

Iran could retaliate and still calibrate its response by using one of its allies in the Middle East. Alongside attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel also has been targeted by drones and missiles from Yemen’s Houthis and by militias in Iraq over the past year.

These militant groups are part of Iran’s so-called axis of resistance against Israel. Before Hamas sparked the war in Gaza, they helped Iran fight a shadow war with Israel. Iran’s attack on Israeli territory in April brought the two sides into direct confrontation for the first time. But Iran has told Arab nations that it doesn’t want a wider war and might now respond to Israel’s attack through one of its proxies.

An attack through a proxy “protects Iran from a direct Israeli strike,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, a think tank in London. It also sends a message “that despite Israeli efforts, that the Axis lives on,” she said.

Iranian officials also gave fresh warnings that the country might review its two-decade-old official stance that it won’t develop nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction. Such warnings from senior officials have become increasingly public in recent months.

Kamal Kharrazi, a top Khamenei adviser, on Friday claimed Tehran has the technical capabilities to build the bomb and that the nuclear stance could change if Iran faced an “existential threat.”

The U.S. has vowed to stop Iran from making a nuclear weapon.

Israel in recent months has shown its military and intelligence edge against Iran and its allies in the Middle East. Iran might now be calculating that Israel will soon turn its attention more forcefully to Tehran, and that it is best served launching an attack as a deterrent, Hage Ali said.

Israel largely blunted Iran’s attack last month, as most of the missiles fired were intercepted or failed to do much damage. But a number did get through Israel’s defenses, indicating that Iran could cause significant damage, particularly if it paired an attack of its own with action by its proxies.

Israel wanted to send a message with its attacks that it sought to close out the cycle of direct skirmishes with Iran, said Avner Golov, a former senior director at Israel’s National Security Council who is now with MIND Israel, a national security advisory group.

But the attack had a more subtle message, too, he said. “If you are planning to retaliate, if you are planning to create attrition warfare, then we will not tolerate and we will escalate,” he added.

WSJ : The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda

The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: ‘I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda’
Self-described French trader says he bet more than $30 million on U.S. election after analyzing polls

The man who is betting more than $30 million on a Donald Trump victory wants you to know that he isn’t trying to manipulate the U.S. election.

“My intent is just making money,” the man, who called himself Théo, said during a Zoom call with a reporter from The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He described himself as a Frenchman who had previously lived in the U.S. and worked as a trader for banks.

Théo’s huge wagers on Polymarket—a prediction market that isn’t open to Americans—drew broad attention last month after the Journal reported that four accounts on the platform had been systematically purchasing wagers on a Trump victory. The bets lifted Trump’s odds of beating Vice President Kamala Harris, as shown on Polymarket. Blockchain data showed that the accounts were all funded by the same crypto exchange, fueling debate about the motives of the “Trump whale” behind them.

Last week, New York-based Polymarket said it had contacted the Trump whale as part of an investigation into the wagers. The company described the person behind the bets as a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial-services background.

“Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” Polymarket said in a statement.

The details in Polymarket’s statement lined up with how Théo described himself. He confirmed that he had spoken to a member of Polymarket’s legal and compliance team.

Election watchers are poring over any and all data in an effort to predict the outcome of one of the most contentious—and, seemingly, close—U.S. presidential elections on record. Prediction markets that allow people to place bets on a variety of potential events have emerged as one possible way to forecast election winners. Historical research suggests that, more often than not, the presidential candidate with the best odds in betting markets before Election Day goes on to take the White House.

Yet the emergence of the Trump whale exposes the limits of today’s prediction markets: Even though volumes have surged on Polymarket this year, it is still small enough for one wealthy, opinionated individual to push prices around with a multimillion-dollar bet.

Théo emailed the Journal after the publication of an Oct. 18 article about his wagers. To prove that he was behind the Polymarket wagers, the Journal asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce that she is pregnant in 2024—one of the many small, nonpolitical wagers available on the platform. Minutes later, Polymarket’s website showed that one of the four accounts, Theo4, had placed a small bet on Swift’s pregnancy.

During the Zoom call, Théo wore a gray Nike sweater and sported a short, neatly trimmed beard. Speaking English with a slight accent, he said he had made his bets after concluding that polls were underestimating Trump’s support. He denied speculation that his wagers were aimed at creating a sense of momentum for Trump.

Théo declined to give his real name, and the Journal wasn’t able to confirm all the elements of his story. Although Théo said he was funding the bets with his own money, it couldn’t be determined whether this is true. Nor could the Journal rule out links between Théo and any political organization or Trump allies.

“I have absolutely no political agenda,” Théo wrote in his initial email.

Théo said he didn’t want to share his name because his own friends and children don’t know the extent of his wealth, and he doesn’t want them to know about his Trump bet. He described himself as a veteran financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars on high-conviction trades. But political betting was new for him, Théo said.

Théo said he took an interest in U.S. polling data earlier this year. He observed that many polls underestimated Trump’s support in 2016 and 2020, and concluded that if Trump outperformed again this year, he would beat Harris. Théo also cited the “shy Trump voter effect”—the idea that people were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported Trump.

“I know a lot of Americans who would vote for Trump without telling you that,” Théo said. Asked about changes that pollsters had made in their methodologies in an attempt to fix the problems of 2016 and 2020, Théo was dismissive, saying he had “not seen anything substantial.”

Théo sent dozens of emails to the Journal reporter over a two-week period. In many of them, he criticized polls from mainstream-media outlets that he saw as skewed in favor of Harris. On the Zoom call, he alleged that Democrat-aligned media organizations were laying the groundwork for social unrest by stoking expectations of a close race, instead of the Trump blowout that he anticipates.

Théo said he was caught by surprise when his trades drew public attention. He started quietly in August by betting several million dollars on Trump, using an account with the username Fredi9999. At the time, Trump and Harris had roughly even chances on Polymarket.

Théo spread out his wagers over multiple days and weeks to avoid causing a price spike. Still, as his bets grew, Théo noticed other traders were backing away from quoting prices when Fredi9999 was buying. That made it harder for Théo to get attractive prices. He created the other three accounts in September and October to obscure his purchasing, Théo said.

Now, Théo could get a payday of more than $80 million-—more than double his investment—if all of his expectations of a sweeping Trump victory come true. Besides his main wager on Trump winning the Electoral College, Théo has bet millions more on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario that many political observers consider unlikely—and on Trump winning individual swing states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

If Harris wins, Théo could lose most or all of his $30 million, which he described as the majority of his available liquid assets.

He is such a big trader on Polymarket that he is effectively stuck, unable to exit his wagers without crashing the market. The four “Trump whale” accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts on Trump winning the Electoral College and over 40% of the contracts on Trump winning the popular vote, according to data provider Polymarket Analytics.

Théo admitted feeling nervous. He voiced confidence that Trump would win—assessing his odds of winning the election at 80% to 90%—but fretted that his bets could be thrown off by an unexpected last-minute news development.

“A surprise can always occur,” Théo said.

FT : Europe can learn fiscal lessons from the UK on how to achieve its goals

Europe can learn fiscal lessons from the UK on how to achieve its goals
A co-ordinated reform agenda is crucial if the EU is serious about becoming a climate leader and geopolitical player

The EU has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050; investing at least 2 per cent of GDP per year in defence for all Nato members; raising public and private innovation spending to 3 per cent of GDP; upgrading its digital infrastructure to state of the art levels; and investing in climate mitigation and prevention. It also has broader goals, such as preserving its social model.

Many of these aims are set down in EU and national legislation. But the cumulative investment needs they entail are massive. Conservative estimates by the European Commission and the European Central Bank put the figures at €750bn-800bn per year. Meeting these needs would require investment to rise to 27 per cent of EU GDP, from 22 per cent today.   

Historically, around 80 per cent of investment in Europe has been financed by the private sector and 20 per cent by the public sector. This implies governments will need to spend more than €1tn over the next seven years.

Many EU governments are confronting this investment challenge from a starting point of high legacy debts and structural deficits. But analysis by the ECB suggests that there is scope for public investment to expand significantly if governments take full advantage of the EU’s new fiscal rules. 

The ECB estimates that the new rules — which allow countries to extend fiscal consolidation for up to seven years in order to carry out investments and reforms — could in principle unlock up to €700bn. And once the consolidation phase is over, countries are allowed to keep structural deficits at 1.5 per cent of GDP.

Compared with the previous rules, this margin could create about 1 percentage point more fiscal space for investment. An additional €400bn will also come from existing EU resources. 

How can Europe ensure that this fiscal space is both used and used well? The Budget adopted this week by the UK government offers some interesting ideas in this specific regard.

The UK government has chosen to significantly raise public investment over the next five years and has adopted precise rules to ensure that borrowing is used only to fund this investment.

Moreover, in order to ensure the quality of spending, transactions will be validated by independent authorities. This increases the likelihood that public investment has a positive net present value and so supports fiscal sustainability.

EU countries are now in the process of submitting their first budgetary plans under Europe’s new fiscal rules. The early evidence suggests two important differences in their approach from the UK’s. 

First, most countries that have fiscal space and are not confronted with a serious deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook are opting for a shorter consolidation path of four years rather than seven. It looks unlikely that these governments will use the margins to raise investment that the new rules provide.

Second, for those countries that do intend to make use of the seven-year extension, the safeguard that money will be spent well lies with the Commission. This requires that it be a demanding negotiating partner, rigorously enforcing investment targets and evaluating the quality of investment and whether it addresses “the common priorities of the Union”.

Until now, public goods like climate mitigation and prevention, energy interconnections, research and defence have been underfunded. It is an open question whether this gap will persist in the future.

At the country level, debt trajectories appear to have been devised only to satisfy debt sustainability analyses. And at the EU level, there has so far been no common assessment of whether the individual plans of countries meet the collective needs of the bloc.  

Certainly, the lion’s share of investment will still need to be financed by the private sector. But private finance will not respond without a co-ordinated reform agenda.

A more efficient use of Europe’s high private savings rates requires integrating its capital markets. To redirect private investment from mature industries to more advanced sectors will hinge on completing the single market.

Without this, innovative firms in fast-growing sectors such as digital services will not be able to scale up and attract capital. And, as a result, investment will remain locked in old technologies.

The EU may have a stated preference to be a climate leader, a digital innovator and a geopolitical player. But for now, the revealed preference of its members is different. Without using its fiscal space and reforming its markets, it is hard to see how Europe will achieve its ambitions. 

>>> Weekly Market update

The rise in global interest rates took increasing investor mindshare this week leading into the FOMC and election. The US 10-year yield rose above 4.25% amid underwhelming 2 and 5-year note auctions and a string of hotter than expected economic readings both in Europe and here. The UK budget statement illustrated rising anxiety about fiscal imbalances there sending GILT yields rocketing up, while uncertainty around the US fiscal path lingered ahead of Tuesday’s vote with polls still leaning towards former President Trump in a very tight race for President. Bets on ECB and BOE rate cuts were pared back while Friday’s noisy, but soft, October US employment report cemented expectations the Fed will cut by another 25 basis points next week. The Yen rose after the BOJ's Ueda left the door wide open for a December rate cut. Crude prices began the week under pressure as Israel’s response to Iran over the weekend was seen as proportionate. Prices rebounded later helped by reports Iran will respond, and OPCE+ producers are considering delaying the planned production cuts set to take effect next month.

An overwhelming barrage of quarterly earnings reports did little to change the narrative around the broader economy and a more discerning consumer heading into the Holidays. Tech took center stage but reports came in from a large cross section of the economy. A series of high profile misses garnered notable attention, seemingly overshadowing the companies that were rewarded by investors after they reported. Microsoft beat expectations but some analysts were concerned about its cloud growth, and management gave conservative guidance on the call. Apple also beat its numbers but investors fretted over weaker than expected China and Wearables & Accessories revenues. Meta bested expectations but also raised capex guidance as it continues to channel more R&D funds into its Llama models. Google exceeded quarterly estimates and highlighted its growing strength in the AI segment, and noted that over 25% of new code is now written by AI. Amazon blew out earnings expectations and guided higher, touting double digit growth in ad revenue and AWS sales as well as a double digit operating margin. Intel managed to beat its now perpetually low expectations, saying that its cost reduction plan is well underway and 15% workforce reduction largely completed. Pfizer beat quarterly expectations and raised estimates, but investors appeared to worry that the drugmaker is still lagging rivals in development of its GLP-1 products. Meanwhile Lilly missed expectations as sales of its Zepbound GLP-1 weight loss drug lost momentum. Exxon and Chevron reported strong results both noting demand remains at historic levels, but markets are still over supplied in the short term.

MON 10/28
(CN) China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM): China hopes to reach breakthrough in EU EV tariffs; China, EU started new phase of negotiation [**Note: EU Commission to decide whether to apply final/definitive duties by Nov 2nd]
(JP) Japan PM Ishiba: Not considering broader coalition right now; LDP received a very difficult verdict from voters and must take this result to heart and be reborn
(US) NY Fed takes $251B (prior: $227B) in RRP program at 4.80%; 67 participating and accepted counterparties (tenth consecutive day <$300B)
(US) OCT DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY INDEX: -3.0 V -9.2E
(US) TREASURY $70B 5-YEAR NOTE AUCTION DRAWS 4.138% V 3.519% PRIOR, BTC 2.39 V 2.38 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER THE LAST 12
(US) TREASURY QUARTERLY FINANCING ESTIMATES: TO BORROW $546B IN OCT-DEC QUARTER V $760BE AND $565B PRIOR ESTIMATE; JAN-MAR TO BORROW $823B V $450BE
(US) Tier1 analysts following Week 3 of Q3 earnings season: 36% of earnings are in and reported EPS beat by 2% so far (+5% ex-BA); "Bottom" mentions +56% y/y often accompanied by an EPS inflection; Mentions of weak demand also fell to 2-year lows; AI monetization is in focus this week
F Reports Q3 $0.49 v $0.49e, Rev $46.2M v $41.2Be; Cuts EBIT guidance
FFIV Reports Q4 $3.67 v $3.45e, Rev $747M v $730Me; Promotes Werner to CFO
ON Reports Q3 $0.99 v $0.97e, Rev $1.76B v $1.75Be; Guides Q4 below est at mid-point
PHIA.NL Reports Q3 Adj EBITA €516M v €456M y/y, Rev €4.37B v €4.47B y/y; Cuts Comp Sales outlook noting significant "intensified" deterioration in China demand, which expected to continue
WCH.DE Reports Q3 Net €33.9M v €30.5Me, EBITDA €152M v €162Me, Rev €1.43B v €1.52B y/y

TUES 10/29
(CN) EU imposes import duties on Chinese EVs; BYD 17.0%; Geely 18.8%; SAIC 35.3%; Tesla 7.8% (update)
(CN) REPORTEDLY CHINA TOP LEGISLATIVE BODY NEXT WEEK TO APPROVE ISSUANCE OVER CNY10T ($1.40T) IN EXTRA DEBT DURING NEXT FEW YEARS AND CONSIDERING STRONGER FISCAL PACKAGE IF TRUMP WINS - PRESS [**Note: >CNY10T amount would be in the high-end of analysts expectations]
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Cuts Q3 GDP forecast from 3.3% to 2.8% (final Q3 estimate)
(US) SEPT JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 7.44M V 8.00ME (lowest since Jan 2021)
(US) SEPT PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.1% V 0.1%E
(US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.215% V 3.668% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.74 V 2.63 PRIOR AND 2.56 OVER THE LAST 12
ADS.DE CEO: Expect growth in US for Q4 and Q1; Both Ye and Adidas said we don’t need to fight anymore and withdrew all the claims - post earnings comments
ADS.DE Reports final Q3 Net €469M v €343.1Me, Op €598M v €409M, Rev €6.44B v €6.44B prelim; Greater China +9% y/y (cc)
AMT Reports Q3 AFFO $2.52 v $2.54e, Rev $2.52B v $2.76Be
BA Confirms pricing of upsized 112.5M at $143/shr in concurrent offerings of common stock and depositary shares [total proceeds $20.7B v $18.9B prior]
BP.UK Reports Q3 Net $206M v $4.86B y/y, Rev $48.3B v $54.0B y/y; Maintains $1.75B share buyback pace during Q4
DHI Reports Q4 $3.92 v $4.20e, Rev $10.0B v $10.2Be; Guides FY25 weak; Raises Quarterly dividend 33.3% to $0.40 from $0.30 (indicated yield 0.89%)
FE Reports Q3 $0.85 v $0.91e, Rev $3.7B v $3.99Be; Raises FY capex outlook
GOOGL Reports Q3 $2.12 v $1.83e, Rev $88.3B v $86.5Be
LSTR Guides Q4 $1.25-1.45 v $1.59e, Rev $1.15-1.25B v $1.27Be - earnings slides
MCD Reports Q3 $3.23 v $3.18e, Rev $6.87B v $6.79Be; Global SSS miss est; Notes continued impact of the war in the Middle East and negative comparable sales in China
NOVN.CH Reports Q3 Core EPS $2.06 v $1.94e, Rev $12.8B v $12.6Be; Raises outlook
PAG Reports Q3 $3.39 v $3.48e, Rev $7.59B v $7.77Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 11.2% to $1.19 from $1.07 (indicated yield 3.06%)
PFE Reports Q3 $1.06 v $0.64e, Rev $17.7B v $15.2Be; Raises outlook
QRVO Reports Q2 $1.88 v $1.85e, Rev $1.05B v $1.03Be; Guides Q3 light
RCL Reports Q3 $5.20 v $5.04e, Rev $4.89B v $4.86Be; Raises FY24 outlook, but guides Q4 EPS below est; "Demand for 2025 is strong with booked load factors in line with prior years and at higher rates, allowing for further pricing and yield growth as 2025 bookings continue to ramp up"
UBER Announced arrival of a new initiative to expand access to more nutritious food for millions of Americans; Available now, Uber Eats is accepting SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) EBT (Electronic Benefits Transfer) payments, starting with the regional grocery banners Albertsons, Safeway, Jewel-Osco and Vons as well as Walgreens locations nationwide and Duane Reade stores exclusively in New York
V Expands Push-to-Wallet for Virtual Cards Across Commercial Solutions Ecosystem
V Recent Oct 1-21st U.S. Payments Volume Growth was around +7% y/y v +4% y/y during Sept - earnings supplement
V TTN Summary Q4 Earnings Call: It was true that in July we started a little slower, and then Q4 ended up being stable and we think it's true now as we see a strong start to October

WEDS 10/30
(CN) CHINA OCT MANUFACTURING PMI (GOVT OFFICIAL): 50.1 V 49.9E (1st expansion in 6 months)
(DE) Germany ruling coalition said to be on the verge of breaking up; speculation of early elections in spring - financial press [**Note: Germany's next elections currently scheduled before end of September 2025]
(DE) GERMANY OCT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.8%E
(DE) GERMANY OCT CPI NORTH RHINE WESTPHALIA M/M: 0.3% V 0.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.5% PRIOR
(DE) GERMANY Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: +0.2% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.3%E
(DE) GERMANY OCT UNEMPLOYMENT CHANGE: +27.0K V +15.0KE; UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS RATE: % V 6.1%E
(EU) ECB's Schnabel (Germany): Neutral rate subject to high uncertainty; No need to go below neutral - speech text
(EU) EURO ZONE Q3 ADVANCE GDP Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.8%E
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 0.25%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) DMO FY24/25 GILT REMIT: £296.9B VS. £298.0BE
(UR) Reportedly Ukraine and Russia in "very early talks" about halting strikes on energy plants; Russia Pres Putin said to be unlikely to agree to a deal as long as Ukrainian forces remain on Russian territory in the Kursk region - FT
(US) NY Fed takes $228.9B (prior: $244.8B) in RRP program at 4.80%; 54 participating and accepted counterparties (twelfth consecutive day <$300B)
(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP PRICE INDEX: 1.8% V 1.9%E; CORE PCE PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 2.2% V 2.1%E
(US) Q3 ADVANCE GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 2.8% V 2.9%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 3.7% V 3.3%
(US) SEPT PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 7.4% V 1.9%E; Y/Y: +2.2% V -1.1%E
(US) TREASURY QUARTERLY REFUNDING ANNOUNCEMENT: TO SELL $58B IN 3-YEAR NOTES; $42B IN 10-YEAR NOTES AND $25B IN 30-YEAR BONDS
OPEC+ COULD REPORTEDLY DELAY PLANNED PRODUCTION INCREASE FROM DEC 2024 BY ONE MONTH OR MORE - PRESS
1211.HK Reports Q3 (CNY) Net 11.6B v 10.4B y/y, Rev 201.1B +24% y/y v 204.9Be
7211.JP Reports H1 Net ¥34.0B v ¥67.5B y/y, Op ¥90.7B v ¥104.2B y/y, Rev ¥1.31B v ¥1.16T y/y
ABBV Reports Q3 $3.00 v $2.92e, Rev $14.5B v $14.3Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 5.8% to $1.64 from $1.55 (indicated yield 3.46%)
ADP Reports Q1 $2.33 adj v $2.20e, Rev $4.83B v $4.76Be, Cuts profit outlook, but raises Rev
AIR.FR Reports Q3 €1.24 v €1.02 y/y, Adj EBIT €1.41B v €1.0B y/y, Rev €15.69B v €14.9B y/y; Affirms guidance
ALL Reports Q3 $3.91 v $2.20e, Rev $16.6B v $16.2Be
BABA AliExpress invites U.S-based retailers to sell on the platform with 0% commission and $0 onboarding costs
BAS.DE Reports Q3 Net +€287M v -€249M y/y, EBITDA €1.3B v €1.4B y/y, Rev €15.7B v €15.7B y/y; Expects to reach the low end of adj EBITDA forecast range
CAT Guides Q4 Rev slightly lower y/y [implies <$16.6B v $16.7Be], adj Op margin modestly higher y/y; Cuts FY24 Rev ' to be slightly lower than our expectations at our last earnings call' y/y (prior 'slightly lower' y/y [implied <$67.1B) - earnings slides
CAT Reports Q3 dealer statistics: Total machines -6% v -3% prior (3rd consecutive drop)
CAT Reports Q3 $5.17 v $5.33e, Rev $16.1B v $16.4Be; Notes decrease in sales volume was mainly driven by lower sales of equipment to end users; Also changes in dealer inventories had an unfavorable impact
CDW Reports Q3 $2.63 v $2.85e, Rev $5.52B v $5.73Be; Notes elongated customer decision making and delays in projects
CF Reports Q3 $1.55 v $1.05e, Rev $1.37B v $1.21Be
CLX Reports Q1 $1.86 v $1.36e, Rev $1.76B v $1.63Be
CVNA Reports Q3 GAAP $0.69 v $0.23e, Rev $3.66B v $3.47Be; Raises FY guidance
EXTR Reports Q1 $0.17 v $0.35 y/y, Rev $269M v $353.1M y/y
GSK.UK Reports Q3 Adj £0.50 v £0.44e, Rev £8.01B v £8.06Be; Cuts vaccine sales outlook
HOOD Reports Q3 $0.17 v $0.18e, Rev $637M v $661Me; Affirms guidance
HUM We want to make it clear that we expect 2025 Adjusted EPS to be at least in line with final 2024 results (implies >=$16.00 v $19.69e), assuming 2025 individual MA membership growth is in line with current expectations; We believe our competitive positioning is in line with previous expectations and continue to anticipate our individual MA membership will decline a few hundred thousand in 2025, primarily due to plan and county exits. We look forward to sharing more in the coming months - prepared remarks
HUM Reports Q3 $4.16 v $3.49e, Rev $29.4B v $28.7Be
KHC On 2025, while it is too early to give guidance, we do not expect to reach long-term on-algorithm pace during the year; Notes confidence for what is coming as we head into 2025 - prepared remarks
LLY Reports Q3 $1.18 v $1.53e, Rev $11.4B v $12.0Be; Zepbound sales miss est; Trims Rev outlook, noting investing heavily in increasing the supply of tirzepatid
META Reports Q3 $6.03 v $5.19e, Rev $40.6B v $40.2Be; Raises midpoint of Capex guidance; Continue to expect significant Capex growth in 2025
MSFT *Guides Q2 Rev $68.1-69.1B (calculated) v $69.7Be; Consumption growth in Azure will be stable from Q1 to Q2; Q2 Azure revenue growth expected to be 31-32% (cc) v 33% q/q - earnings call
MSFT Reports Q1 $3.30 v $3.08e, Rev $65.6B v $64.4Be
SBUX Reports Q4 $0.80 v $0.80e, Rev $9.07B v $9.10Be
SHAK Sales trends continued to see momentum in Oct with SSS +4.5% (v 4.4% in Q3) and ~flat traffic; Guides Q4 Rev $322.6-327.0M v $324Me - shareholder letter
UBSG.CH Reports Q3 +$0.43 v -$0.24 y/y, Rev $12.3B v $11.7B y/y; Notes upcoming US elections are creating uncertainties that are likely to affect investor behavior
VOW3.DE TTN Summary Earnings Call: Do not expect same dividend as last year; Confident we can reach agreements with unions, but can't rule out strikes; Notes US transition to electric mobility is not as fast as originally assumed; Dividend policy of 30% payout is still valid, but reasonable to assume that 2024 dividend will be lower

THRS 10/31
(IS) Iran is reportedly planning to conduct a "major" retaliatory strike against Israel from Iraqi territory - press
(EU) EURO ZONE OCT ADVANCE CPI ESTIMATE Y/Y: 2.0% V 1.9%E; CORE CPI Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E
(IT) ITALY SEPT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 6.1% V 6.2%E
(IT) ITALY OCT PRELIMINARY CPI M/M: 0.0% V -0.1%E; Y/Y: 0.9% V 0.8%E
(UR) Ukraine Office Chief Yermak: Ukraine to weigh China-Brazil-South Africa peace proposals [**Note: proposals included ceasefire and no escalation]
(US) BOFA INSTITUTE: WEEK-TO-OCT 26TH TOTAL CARD SPENDING +2.6% Y/Y V +1.9% PRIOR WEEK V -0.9% AVERAGE IN SEPT; Within the sectors we report, entertainment, online electronics and airlines showed the biggest y/y rise since last week.
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 216K V 230KE (lowest since mid-May); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.862M V 1.88ME
(US) Q3 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (ECI): 0.8% V 0.9%E
(US) Redfin: Pending sales have remained resilient despite mortgage rates rise; Pending U.S. home sales rose 4.5% year over year during the four weeks ending October 27, the biggest increase in more than three years
(US) SEPT PCE DEFLATOR INDEX M/M: 0.2% V 0.2%E; Y/Y: 2.1% V 2.1%E
(US) SEPT PERSONAL INCOME: 0.3% V 0.3%E; PERSONAL SPENDING: 0.5% V 0.4%E
(US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +78 BCF VS. +81 BCF TO +83 BCF INDICATED RANGE
(US) Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Forecasts initial Q4 US GDP at 2.7%
(CN) CHINA OCT CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.3 V 49.7E (moves back into expansion)
ABI.BE Reports Q3 $0.98 v $0.90e, EBITDA $5.42B v $5.43B y/y, Rev $15.6B v $15.6Be
EME Reports Q3 $5.80 v $3.61 y/y, Rev $3.70B v $3.21B y/y; Raises guidance; Organic Rev +12.6% y/y
ETN In 2025, expect overall market growth of ~6-8%; Affirms FY24 FCF $3.4-3.6B (prior: $3.4-3.6B) - earnings slides
FNMA Reports Q3 Net $4.04B v $4.70B y/y, Rev $7.34B v $7.30B y/y
MA Guides Q4 Rev Low-teens growth, Operating Expenses High-end of low-double-digits; Oct MTD Switched transaction volume 12% y/y v 11% q/q, Cross-border volume 18% y/y v 17% q/q - slides
MAERSKB.DK CEO: Expect to pay significant dividends in 2025; Our expectation that we will not be able to sail through the Red Sea well into 2025 - post earnings comments
MAERSKB.DK Reports final Q3 Underlying Net $3.10B v $2.50Be, EBITDA $4.80B v $4.00Be, Rev $15.8B v $15.8B prelim; Notes exports out of China and Southeast Asia make a very large portion of growth
TTE.FR Reports Q3 Adj $1.74 v $1.84e, adj EBITDA $10.1B v $10.4Be, Rev $52.0B v $57.0Be; To execute $2B share buybacks in Q4
UBER CEO: See broad strength in trip volumes, but especially outside the US - CNBC
AAPL Reports Q4 $1.64 v $1.49e, Rev $94.9B v $94.4Be; Records $10.2B European one-time income tax charge
AMZN Reports Q3 $1.43 adj v $1.14e, Rev $158.9B v $157.1Be; Guides Q4 above consensus
INTC Reports Q3 +$0.12 v -$0.03e, Rev $13.3B v $13.0Be; Takes $2.8B Q3 restructuring charge
CAR Reports Q3 $6.65 v $8.55e, Rev $3.48B v $3.56Be

FRI 11/01
(IR) Iran Supreme Leader Advisor Kharrazi: Iran will certainly respond to the Israeli aggression at the appropriate time; Changing its nuclear doctrine is still on table if Iran faces an existential threat
(US) OCT CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS: +12K V +100KE (below all estimates and lowest since Dec 2020)
(US) OCT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.1% V 4.1%E
(US) OCT AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 4.0% V 4.0%E
(US) OCT ISM MANUFACTURING: 46.5 V 47.6E (Lowest since June 2023)
(US) OCT FINAL S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.5 V 47.8E
(CH) SWISS OCT CPI M/M: -0.1% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 0.6% V 0.8%E (lowest since June 2021)
(US) Tier1 week-to-Oct 31st US Truckload Demand Indicator at 56.0 v 54.0 prior (now above 54 avg freight recession level); Follows recent tightness after 2Hurricanes (Milton and Helene) and a 3-day East Coast port strike
(US) NY Fed takes $155.5B (prior: $201.3B) in RRP program at 4.80%; 41 participating and accepted counterparties
W Reports Q3 $0.22 v $0.14e, Rev $2.88B v $2.88Be
CHD Reports Q3 $0.79 v $0.68e, Rev $1.51B v $1.49Be; "While US consumption in our categories improved slightly in September and October, we remain cautious regarding the US consumer and category growth rates for Q4"
CAH Reports Q1 $1.88 v $1.64e, Rev $52.3B v $51.3Be; Raises outlook
XOM Reports Q3 $1.92 v $1.95e, Rev $90.0B v $93.5Be; Raises Quarterly dividend 4.2% to $0.99 from $0.95 (indicated yield 3.39%)
XOM Affirms FY24 Capex $28B v $26.3B y/y (prior: capex $28B); 2024 is a high planned maintenance year which is reflected in base volumes and expenses - earnings slides
CVX Reports Q3 $2.51 v $2.47e, Rev $48.9B v $49.9Be; Notes cost reduction efforts are underway, targeting $2-3B of structural cost reductions from 2024 by end-2026
CVX Anticipate significant volume growth in the years ahead; In Q4, Upstream will have downtime which is expected to be split between U.S. and international operations - earnings slides