>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 20th of November 2024

>>> Up
* Buzzi SpA Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 46 euros
* Edenred Raised to Hold at Jefferies
* Endesa Raised to Outperform at Renta 4; PT 25.50 euros
* Equinor Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 330 kroner
* Holcim Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 108 Swiss francs
* Inmobiliaria Colonial Raised to Buy at JB Capital Markets
* Lemonade Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $42
* Merck & Co Raised to Buy at CFRA
* Remedy Entertainment Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 19 euros
* Synsam Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Walmart PT Raised to $100 from $89 at Morgan Stanley
* XPeng ADRs Raised to Buy at CMB International; PT $16

>>> Down
* BP Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader
* EasyJet Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 530 pence
* Galapagos Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Picton Property Income Ltd Cut to Add at Peel Hunt
* SSP Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 200 pence

>>> Initiation
* Avolta AG Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 40 Swiss francs
* Lanvin Group Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT $1.80
* LNA Sante Rated New Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 33 euros
* NCAB Group Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 69 kronor
* Nel Rated New Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 2.50 kroner
* Nexans Rated New Hold at Stifel; PT 123.10 euros
* Yubico Rated New Buy at Nordea; PT 320 kronor
* Zabka Rated New Buy at Goldman; PT 28 zloty

>>> Call
* Edenred Raised to Hold at Jefferies, Negatives Seem Priced In
* Holcim, Buzzi Raised at JPMorgan, More Upside for Cement Firms
* Palantir Has ‘Unsustainable Multiple’, Insider Sales: Jefferies

WSJ : René Magritte Painting Sells for a Record-Breaking $121.2 Million

René Magritte Painting Sells for a Record-Breaking $121.2 Million
The surrealist painter joins a small group of artists whose work has sold for over $100 million

A day after Sotheby’s tested the strength of the trophy market with its $65.5 million Claude Monet, rival Christie’s did one better—by auctioning off a $121.2 million René Magritte. “Empire of Lights,” the painter’s 1954 dichotomy of night and day, was estimated to sell for $95 million.

Magritte, who lived from 1898 to 1967, is known for his dreamlike takes on everyday objects, from smoking pipes to green apples to bowler hats. With this sale, he joins an elite club of fewer than 20 artists whose works have commanded nine-figure sums, including Pablo Picasso and Leonardo da Vinci. The sale, to a telephone bidder after a nearly 10-minute bidding war, also represents the first time this year that any artist has crossed the $100 million mark at auction.

Christie’s also scored big later that night by resetting the high bar for Ed Ruscha, whose 1964 “Standard Station, Ten-Cent Western Being Torn in Half” sold for $68.3 million after a nearly six-minute battle between dogged telephone bidders. The artist’s significant, early view of a gleaming gas station in Amarillo, Texas, was sold by Texas oilman Sid Bass and was expected to sell for $50 million. The sale tops the $52.5 million paid in 2019 for 1964’s “Hurting the Word Radio #2,” in which the artist paints clamps so they appear to be squeezing a couple of letters.

The night’s biggest star was clearly Magritte, though. “Empire of Lights” was one of 17 canvases that the Belgian painter created between 1949 and 1964 that offer variations of the same surreal scene: A suburban house sitting in seeming darkness and yet backed by a day-lit blue sky. Sometimes, the house has a red door; other times, green shutters. Often, Magritte surrounds his houses with towering trees or a stream of reflective water. In whatever form, the juxtaposition of night and day is widely considered his masterpiece—and his bestselling motif. Christie’s version on Tuesday stood out in part because it was the biggest example to ever come to market, at 4 feet tall. It was also the first to include watery reflections.

Max Carter, Christie’s vice chairman of 20th and 21st century art, said the recent surge in interest in surrealists has transformed the market for the artists who first championed it a century ago including Salvador Dalí and Magritte, whose previous, $79.4 million record was only set two years ago when Sotheby’s sold a smaller, horizontal version of “Empire of Lights” from 1961.

Christie’s version came from the estate of interior designer Mica Ertegun, the wife of Atlantic Records founder Ahmet Ertegun who carved out her own reputation as a leading interior decorator among the global upper crust. She died last year at age 97, leaving behind an estimated $144 million estate that included a trio of additional Magrittes as well as David Hockney’s peachy-teal “Still Life on a Glass Table” from 1971, which sold Tuesday for $19 million. It was estimated to sell for at least $15 million.

WSJ : Tokyo Gas Shares Rise Sharply After Elliott Builds Stake

Tokyo Gas Shares Rise Sharply After Elliott Builds Stake
Elliott purchased shares almost every trading day in October

Tokyo Gas 9531 12.77%increase; green up pointing triangle shares rose sharply after activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed that it built a stake in the Japanese utility company.

Shares rose 12% on Wednesday by midday in Tokyo after jumping as much as 15% earlier.

In a filing released after Tuesday’s market close, Elliott said that it acquired a 5.0% stake in Tokyo Gas for 64.96 billion yen, equivalent to $420 million. The filing showed that Elliott had purchased shares almost every trading day in October.

Elliott said that it might make significant proposals to Tokyo Gas following discussions with company officials.

On Oct. 30, Tokyo Gas announced plans to repurchase up to ¥40 billion worth of its own shares after reporting a drop in revenue and net profit for the first half ended Sept. 30.

The utility company also said it would accelerate the sale of properties and stockholdings to fund growth initiatives or return cash to shareholders.

FT : Comcast set to spin off cable TV networks to drive streaming growth

Comcast set to spin off cable TV networks to drive streaming growth
‘Cord-cutting’ consumers lead entertainment group to focus investment on online assets

Comcast is close to announcing a plan to spin off its cable television networks, including news channels CNBC and MSNBC, in a move designed to position its remaining entertainment and sports assets as a faster-growing business better suited to compete in the streaming era. 

Comcast’s cable TV networks, which also include E!, Syfy, Oxygen and USA Network, have suffered as “cord-cutting” consumers favour streaming services.

The company’s other entertainment businesses — a portfolio that ranges from Universal Studios and theme parks to the NBC broadcast network and the Peacock streaming service — will be able to “invest in growth” without the drag of the cable businesses, according to a person familiar with the plan.

Mike Cavanaugh, Comcast’s president, said last month that the company was exploring the idea of spinning off the cable networks. Comcast is expected to announce the move on Wednesday morning, according to two people familiar with the plan. The Wall Street Journal first reported the details. 

The move by one of America’s largest media conglomerates is the latest acknowledgment of the collapse of cable, an enormously profitable business for decades. In August, Paramount and Warner Bros Discovery wrote down the valuations of their cable channels by $6bn and $9bn, respectively. Cable television channels have become “anchors around the necks” of media companies, LightShed analyst Rich Greenfield wrote at the time. 

Warner Bros has also explored spin-offs and other structures to isolate its legacy cable TV networks, the Financial Times reported in July.

Without the cable business, the newly constituted NBCUniversal entertainment group is expected to have healthy revenue without much debt, allowing it to pursue acquisitions of other digital assets, studios or networks.

“Like many of our peers in media, we are experiencing the effects of the transition in our video businesses and have been studying the best path forward for these assets,” Cavanagh told analysts last month. 

“The idea of playing some offence when you combine the balance sheet strength that we have, the assets we have and the management team we have — there may be some smart things to do,” he added.

Comcast shares jumped as much as 9 per cent after his comments on October 31.  

Dame Donna Langley, who has led the NBCU studios and served as chief content officer, will run the new entertainment group as chair of the NBCUniversal Media Group. Matt Strauss, who has been running the Peacock streaming service, will become chair of the NBCU Media group, overseeing distribution and programming agreements.  

The entertainment group will hold a broad portfolio of sporting rights, including with the NBA, NFL and Olympics. 

The cable television networks, which have $7bn in assets, will be spun off to shareholders in a tax-free transaction. Mark Lazarus, chair of the NBCUniversal Media Group, will run the cable TV group. Structuring the new company is expected to take about a year. 

Brian Roberts, Comcast chair and chief executive, will not serve on the board or as a member of the new company's management, but will hold a 33 per cent voting stake.

FT : Even brands built to last need a nimble strategy to thrive and endure

Even brands built to last need a nimble strategy to thrive and endure
No iron law states that a business will keep growing, even one renowned for excellence

Until fairly recently, if you asked someone to describe their idea of an established world-class European business, it seems likely that Volkswagen would get a mention.

Still the world’s second-largest carmaker by volume, despite a diesel emissions scandal that came to light in 2015, VW is a brand that suggests solidity, reliability and engineering soundness; a company which, like its products, is built to last.

So it is startling to read reports of possible factory closures, with job losses and 10 per cent pay cuts, for the first time in Volkswagen’s 87-year history. This sort of thing is not supposed to happen, not at this company, anyway. Yet there is no iron law that states a company will keep growing — even one with a deserved reputation for excellence.

For VW and its auto sector peers, the emergence and rise of electric vehicles — and, in particular, cheaper subsidised Chinese models — has shaken up the market. It has been an unavoidable disruption.

And, when a company is apparently successful and powerful, there can be a delay before the leadership makes necessary changes. “Some businesses remain hesitant to disrupt themselves,” says David Bach, president of the IMD business school in Lausanne. But investors will notice. “Capital markets can be ruthless, and may be better at picking winners than some managers,” he points out.

Sometimes, new leadership is required to reinvent a business, as happened at Microsoft, when Satya Nadella helped lead a process through which an ageing software business became a reinvigorated technology giant, at the leading edge of the AI revolution.

Perhaps introducing (or, rather, reintroducing) a spirit of entrepreneurship can boost the longevity and growth prospects of an established business.

Monique Boddington, associate professor at Judge Business School at the University of Cambridge, agrees that the adaptability of entrepreneurs is a quality that can help a business of any size.

But that adaptability may not always take the form of (self-)disruption, she adds.

“When you think about new technologies, are they really disruptive or are they in fact iterative? Look at the success of Nvidia [the dominant chipmaker],” she says. “They were never really disruptive, even if they have ended up taking over an industry. It was iterative development. I was using their chips when I was playing computer games decades ago.”

Companies can also renew themselves by “bringing the outside in” — sometimes labelled “open innovation”.

Big pharmaceutical groups have, by necessity, survived in part by acquiring or partnering with start-ups and smaller companies that have developed new treatments — Pfizer’s work with BioNTech to develop a Covid vaccine is an obvious example.

The toy company Lego sustained itself by encouraging inventiveness among its fans and customers, co-creating new products and services.

The deceptively simple sounding verb “pivot” is sometimes used to describe what companies need to do to survive and grow.

The implication is that a more or less dignified leap can be made from one form of activity to another. But, for a large company, or even the individual, pivoting is not necessarily straightforward. Other approaches have been suggested over the years. Some have advocated a “blue ocean strategy”, finding new and perhaps uncontested markets.

Chris Zook at consultants Bain & Co argued for an intelligent focus on the core of the business, perhaps building on growth opportunities in adjacent markets.

Julian Birkinshaw, formerly at London Business School but now dean of the Ivey Business School in Canada, has shown how corporate venturing — that is, encouraging new business ideas internally — can reap rewards.

In the 1980s, a team of planners at Shell, the oil giant, studied companies that had been around and survived even longer than it had (the company was about 100 years old at the time).

This study led to the publication in 1997 of the Harvard Business Review article, later a book, called “The Living Company”, by Shell’s former head of planning Arie de Geus.

The central question was: why do so many companies die so young? “Few other types of institution — churches, armies, or universities — have the abysmal record of the corporation,” de Geus wrote. “What I have come to call living companies have a personality that allows them to evolve harmoniously,” he went on.

“They know who they are, understand how they fit into the world, value new ideas and new people, and husband their money in a way that allows them to govern their future.”

De Geus found that “living companies” welcomed new ideas: “The long-lived companies in our study tolerated activities in the margin: experiments and eccentricities that stretched their understanding. They recognised that new businesses may be entirely unrelated to existing businesses and that the act of starting a business need not be centrally controlled.”

In Europe, worries about corporate longevity and performance are not confined to the VW boardroom. It is a matter of concern for the EU as a whole. The prescription, contained in Mario Draghi’s report on competitiveness, published in September, is for more investment and a better co-ordinated capital market.

But, to survive and grow, businesses also need what General Chance Saltzman, head of the US military’s Space Force, has called “competitive endurance”. This is the quality displayed by the longest living companies.

FT : Citadel Securities aims to become big player in Eurozone bond trading

Citadel Securities aims to become big player in Eurozone bond trading
Ken Griffin’s high-speed trading firm builds team in Paris and will start trading German Bunds

Citadel Securities is aiming to become a “material” player in Eurozone government bond trading by next year after building a team of traders in Paris and securing valuable access to German debt auctions.

The Miami-based high-speed trading firm founded by billionaire Ken Griffin is already a major participant in the US Treasury market and is now targeting a similarly prominent role in Europe.

In September, Germany added Citadel Securities to the list of companies that were allowed to buy the country’s debt directly at its regular auctions — a move widely viewed as an implicit blessing that the market maker plans to use as a beachhead to expand its presence, according to senior executives at the firm.

“We want to be a material player in European rates markets and believe our efforts complement the EU’s renewed commitment to deepening and integrating its capital markets,” Michael de Pass, Citadel Securities’ head of rates trading, told the Financial Times.

“Europe’s market structure remains fragmented and resistant to new entrants, but we’re focused on building our business incrementally and deliberately,” he added.

The firm recently established a team of six traders at its new continental European hub in Paris. They will start to trade German Bunds in the coming weeks, but Citadel Securities expects this to grow swiftly as more markets are gradually added, according to people familiar with the firm’s plans.

Citadel Securities’ entry into European government bond trading — a market that for centuries has been dominated by local and regional banks — highlights the growing ambitions of algorithm-driven trading firms and the subtle changes taking place in the fabric of fixed-income markets.

High-frequency traders have been dominant players in most developed stock markets for more than a decade, but firms such as Susquehanna International Group, Jump Trading, Jane Street and Citadel Securities have in recent years expanded aggressively in markets long considered less hospitable to their technology-driven approach.

However, some critics say that the liquidity these specialist traders provide can prove ephemeral at times of turbulence, when the difference between the prices they quote for buying or selling can balloon. Sceptics argue that these trading firms therefore make markets more fragile, pointing to the increasing number of “flash crashes” and “flash rallies” across markets in recent years.

A 2019 paper by the European Central Bank found that “when an increase in high-frequency trading is accompanied by high-frequency trading competition, HFTs use more speculative trading strategies and, as a result, liquidity deteriorates and short-term volatility rises”.

European banks have also urged caution. In a report on European bond markets earlier this year, the International Capital Market Association, a trade body, said “the speed at which markets become volatile — the ‘volatility of volatility’ — has increased, possibly aided by greater transparency and more dependence on e-trading and automation”.

Nevertheless, there has been a growing acceptance among some European technocrats and policymakers that the region’s bond markets need to be developed to help better fund the debt burdens of many countries, and to finance investments in climate change mitigation and defence.

Mario Draghi, former ECB head and Italian prime minister, made overhauling the eurozone’s bond market a central plank of his competitiveness strategy for Europe.

The European Securities and Markets Authority, the EU financial watchdog, is already in the process of setting up a so-called consolidated tape that would register and make public the price of every single bond trade across the Eurozone.

This is likely to be a boon for tech-oriented trading firms such as Citadel Securities, which thrive on analysing large quantities of data, and attract more investors to the market, the trader’s executives argue.

“There’s dramatic underappreciation for what greater liquidity and transparency would mean for Europe’s bond markets,” said Shyam Rajan, global head of fixed income at Citadel Securities.

“The journey towards greater competitiveness and the ultimate goal of a EU capital markets union starts with encouraging broader participation and liquidity in sovereign bond markets.”

FT : Italy cracks down on ‘reckless’ e-scooter riders

Italy cracks down on ‘reckless’ e-scooter riders
Users will have to wear helmets and carry insurance but rental operators say new rules will slash demand

Italy will require people riding electric scooters to wear helmets and carry insurance to clamp down on what the Italian government describes as “reckless behaviour” that turned streets into a “jungle”. 

But dismayed e-scooter operators like Uber-backed Lime, US-based Bird and Franco-Dutch Dott warn that the new conditions — set to be approved by Italian parliament in the coming days — will seriously depress demand in one of the most important European markets after Paris banned the two-wheelers in a referendum last year. 

“It’s implicit sabotage,” said Andrea Giaretta, vice-president for western Europe at Dott, which has 9,000 e-scooters across 20 Italian cities and towns. “These rules are unworkable. It will boomerang . . . and make sharing less sustainable.” 

Giorgio Cappiello, head of public affairs for Bird Italy, called the new rules “completely ideological” and warned it could reduce demand for the company’s 15,000 e-scooters in Italy by up to 70 per cent, raising questions over the future of such operations.  

“As in all industries, if the regulatory framework is hostile for private companies, they leave,” he said. 

Italy has around 55,000 e-scooters available for rent in cities and towns, offering what advocates call an affordable, green transport option. Favourable weather and high volumes of tourists have led to the rapid growth of this sector.

But the proliferation of two-wheelers has also triggered a local backlash, especially in tourist hubs like Rome, where e-scooters are left scattered on narrow pavements, and riders weave amid the traffic congestion. 

Accidents involving e-scooters have been rising steadily, with 21 people killed last year and 182 pedestrians hit compared with just nine fatalities and 127 injured pedestrians in 2021, according to the national statistics agency, Istat.  

Around half of thousands of e-scooter accidents recorded each year involved foreign riders — mainly tourists and migrants working for food delivery services, Istat said.

Transport minister Matteo Salvini has vowed to tackle what he called a “jungle in the streets” created by e-scooter driving. He said the new rules would “end impunity and reckless behaviour” with an eye to public welfare.

“Everyone’s lives and safety depend on it,” Salvini wrote in a social media post on Monday.  

Under the new law, all e-scooter riders will be required to wear protective helmets — bringing them in line with what Vespa and other moped riders have been obliged to wear since 2000.

Operators say this is likely to reduce usage by 25 to 70 per cent given the challenges of providing helmets, which they argue are unnecessary anyway given that the e-scooters cannot travel above 20km per hour.

“On a scooter you can’t attach a helmet — we wouldn’t know where to put it,” said Dott’s Giaretta, adding that most accidents “do not involve the skull but the face, legs, arms and abdomen”.

Enrico Stefàno, a senior public policy manager for Lime — which operates 10,000 e-scooters in 12 Italian cities, said the company could attach helmets to their scooters at an initial cost of around €1mn. 

But he said that e-scooter use would likely drop by around 25 per cent as helmets would prove tempting targets for theft, and be easily damaged or vandalised.

“In the short-run this can translate into fewer rides,” Stefano said. “We don’t want to leave Italy or disinvest or lay off anyway, but it’s clear that this is a measure that has an impact.”

Italy will also require e-scooter riders to carry third-party liability insurance to cover pedestrians and others hurt in accidents, which shared-mobility companies say will be more costly than the coverage they now provide for their users.

Andrea Giuricin, a transport economist at the University of Milan-Bicocca who also serves as a consultant to the sector, said operators would continue lobbying for an easing of the new law, even after the bill is adopted.

“Due to the fact that they are global players, they will continue to operate making losses,” Giuricin said. “They will not close tomorrow, but they will try to change the law.”

FT : Germany finds itself in a predicament of its own making

Germany finds itself in a predicament of its own making
While it loses sympathy abroad, the country faces political uncertainty at home

Even when Germany holds highly unusual snap elections, some of its political laws seem etched in stone. Incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a bubbling groundswell of revolt in his SPD, where some want him to step aside for defence minister Boris Pistorius, the country’s most popular politician. Both men were born in the town of Osnabrück; both have law degrees.

In 2020, the three men competing to succeed Angela Merkel as the next conservative chancellor were all from the same state and had all gone to the same law school. One of them, opposition leader Friedrich Merz, could become the country’s leader next year.

The other thing that appears to be immutable in Berlin is the chancellor himself. Scholz’s densely imperturbable self-righteousness grows more astounding (some would say disturbing) by the day given the rapid deterioration of circumstances: for him, for his coalition, for Germany, for Europe and for Ukraine.

Scholz is currently limping on in a minority government with the Greens, having sacked his finance minister, Christian Lindner, on the day after the US election in a fight over the constitutional debt brake. He has reluctantly agreed to call a confidence vote on December 16 (which he is projected to lose), clearing the way for elections on February 23. In a new survey, two-thirds of his own party faithful rate Pistorius over him. Yet Scholz insisted in a recent hour-long television interview that he was the best candidate, and that he would win.

How that might transpire is his secret. The polls have his SPD at 16, the Greens at 12, and the Free Democrats (FDP) languishing at or below the parliamentary threshold of 5 per cent. When this “traffic light” coalition came into power in 2021, its programme of progressive transformation felt like a rush of fresh air. Its forceful initial response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — becoming a major supporter for Kyiv and Nato, agreeing on “watershed” defence spending and decoupling from Russian energy imports — was admirable.

But since then, it has become mired in policy failures and public bickering. The economy is hovering just above recession. The far right has surged, together with the new left-nationalist BSW led by the firebrand Sahra Wagenknecht. Key reform promises are left unfulfilled, and unfunded. One senior politician has been heard to say that Lindner relished vivisecting his colleagues’ projects at the cabinet table.

In much of Europe, the coalition is viewed with emotions that run the gamut from disappointment to dismay and distrust. It prioritised the largest countries over smaller ones; but even relations with Paris and Warsaw are at a nadir. Too often, it took unilateral decisions — on migration, on subsidies for fossil fuel substitution, on tariffs for Chinese electric vehicles — resulting in beggar-thy-neighbour effects beyond Germany’s borders. Scholz’s phone call with Vladimir Putin last week aroused particularly severe contempt and anger.

On Ukraine, the German government was sharply divided. The Greens and the FDP wanted to give Kyiv more lethal weapons — like the Taurus cruise missile — more quickly. The chancellery saw itself in a mind-meld with the Biden administration’s concerns about escalation and being pulled into a war with Russia. But now that the White House has decided to let the Ukrainians use US-made Atacms missiles for limited long-range strikes, pressure on Scholz to deliver the Tauruses is growing again, including in his own party. His adamant refusal only increases Berlin’s isolation.

Meanwhile, Merz has his eyes on the chancellery, an office he has been chasing all his life. His CDU currently polls at 34 per cent, so, barring an electoral miracle, he will need to partner with the SPD and possibly the Greens as well. He will have to keep the extremists at bay, make the economy competitive again, re-centre Germany in Europe and Nato, manage a vindictive Donald Trump, face down a Russia hell-bent on subjugating Ukraine and fend off Chinese assertiveness.

He should expect little sympathy abroad, since Germany has very largely brought these dilemmas on itself — through complacency, denial and deliberately cultivated dependencies. But Merz could do worse than remember what his arch-nemesis Angela Merkel did in a time of national crisis. At the height of the pandemic, she went on television and told Germans the stark truth: “It is serious. You should take it seriously.” That would be a start. And perhaps a new beginning.