>>> What to look at today - 27th of November 2024

Stocks in Asia wavered as traders digested Donald Trump’s latest cabinet appointments, a day after his tariff threats roiled emerging markets.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, with equities falling in Japan while those in Hong Kong and China gained. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar slipped 0.1% to pare some of its strength in the previous session. The yen gained.  The president elect’s tariffs agenda seemed to gather further momentum on Wednesday, as Trump named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions. A slew of data from the US due later on inflation and economic growth may provide clues to the Federal Reserve’s next policy move.   New Zealand lowered the official cash rate by 50 basis points. The local dollar advanced as traders parsed the central bank’s rate projections and governor’s comments.   The yen strengthened as much as 0.5% against the dollar. US 10-year yields ticked lower after gaining three basis points to 4.31% in the previous session. Fed officials indicated support for a careful approach to rate cuts, according to minutes from their latest policy meeting.    Back in Asia, China is in focus as the government has approved a bond quota totaling 500 billion yuan ($69 billion) that will allow two state-owned asset managers to issue notes to fund investments in projects aimed at boosting economic growth. In corporate news, Vitasoy International Holdings Ltd. shares surged the most since its listing after one of its shareholders raised stake in the soy food producer. Sanrio Co. tumbled the most in a decade after the brand owner of Hello Kitty said holders including its president will sell shares.  Middle East tensions abated somewhat as President Joe Biden said Israel reached a cease-fire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after weeks of talks mediated by the US.  In commodities, oil steadied as signs OPEC+ will once again delay restoring some output countered easing geopolitical risk.   US After Hours DELL -10.9%, WDAY -10.8%, ADSK -9.1%, HPQ -7.9%, CRWD -3.7% lower on earnings; AMBA +18.2%, URBN +6.5% higher on earnings.

Nikkei -0.50% Hang Seng +1.42% CSI +1,52% Shanghai +1.31% Shenzen +1.78%

Eur$ 1.0479 CNH 7.2658 CNY 7.2573 JPY 152.29 GBP 1.2572 CHF 1.1291 RUB 105.3352 TRY 34.6571 WTI$ 68.79 Gold 2639 BTC 92,450 ETH 3390

S&P -0.01% Nasdaq -0.08% EuroStoxx -0.15% FTSE +0.06% Dax +0.01% SMI +0.08

Macro :
- Goldman Sees ‘Significant’ Hit to US from Trump’s Canada Tariffs
- Fed Minutes Show Officials Prefer Future Rate Cuts to Be Gradual

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : Air Europa in Talks to Sell 20% to Air France-KLM: El Economista
- AMBA US : Ambarella 4Q Revenue Forecast Beats Estimates
- AAL LN : Anglo American to Sell 6.6% of Amplats Ahead of Spinoff
- AAPL US : Apple Misses Out on Big 2024 Smartphone Market Rebound, IDC Says
- ANIM IM : Banco BPM Files Offer Doc on Anima With Italy Market Regulator
- ARAMI FP : Aramis 2024 Net Income €5 Million vs 2023 Loss of €32.3 Million
- AT1 GY : Aroundtown 9M Net Rental Income EU882.8M Vs. EU894.5M Y/y (1)
- AML LN : Aston Martin FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- AML LN : Aston Martin to Raise More Cash After Another Profit Warning
- BAMI IM : Banco BPM Files Offer Doc on Anima With Italy Market Regulator
- CAST SS : Kungsleden Gets Holder Consent for March 2028 Notes
- DELL US : Dell Reports Sales That Miss Estimates on Setback for PC Market
- DOLCE & GAB : Dolce & Gabbana in Talks With Lenders Over €400m Debt: Sole
- EZJ LN : EasyJet FY Revenue Meets Estimates
- EKTAB SS : Elekta 2Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty Gets European Commission Approval to Buy Unieuro
- GALP PL : Galp Drops Plan to Build Lithium-Conversion Project in Portugal
- GES US : Guess Drops After 3Q Revenue Miss, FY Adj. EPS Forecast Cut
- GSF NO : Grieg Seafood 2025 Harvest Forecast Beats Estimates
- HAL NA : HAL 3Q Net Asset Value per Share EU165.95 Vs. EU160.17 Q/Q
- HPQ US : HP Inc 1Q Adjusted EPS Forecast Misses Estimates: Snapshot
- IDIA SW : Idorsia in Exclusive Talks for Aprocitentan, May Cut ~270 Jobs
- LBIRD FP : Lumibird Founder Mulls Taking Company Private: L’Informe,
- LBIRD FP : Lumibird Exploring Potential Sale of Medical Unit
- NEON FP : Neoen Cuts 2024 Adjusted Ebitda Target to €475M-€490M
- NHY NO : Hydro Phasing Out Battery, Havrand Units, Starts Improvements
- NOVN SW : Novartis’ Swiss Country Chief to Leave, NZZ Reports
- 3382 JP : Seven & i Shares Rise on Report of KKR Interest in Supermarkets
- SHLF NO : Shelf Drilling CEO Greg O’Brien Buys Shares for NOK2.23m
- 9984 JP : OpenAI Staff May Sell ~$1.5b Worth of Shares to SoftBank: CNBC
- STLA IM : Stellantis Plans to Close UK Van Factory Over EV Mandate
- STORB SS : Storskogen Targets Adjusted Ebita Growth of 15% in 2025-2027
- TEP FP : Teleperformance to Buy ZP Better Together for $490 Million
- TSLA US : SpaceX Gets Conditional Approval for Starlink Cell Coverage
- TTE FP : Total Pauses New York Offshore Wind Farm Plans After Trump Win
- UCG IM : UniCredit CEO Called Bank of Italy Chief Prior to Bid: Corriere

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of November 2024

>>> Up
* Aviva Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 545 pence
* Direct Line Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 198 pence
* EDP Renovaveis Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 13 euros
* Essity Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 310 kronor
* Henkel Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 100 euros
* Nestle Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Nestle ADRs Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $85
* Nvidia Raised to Hold at Punto Casa de Bolsa; PT $140
* OCI Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 14 euros
* Opmobility Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 12 euros
* Syensqo Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 86 euros
* Volvo Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 330 kronor

>>> Down
* Boohoo Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 30 pence
* EDP SA Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 3.70 euros
* Generali Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 25.50 euros
* Nokian Renkaat Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 6 euros
* Segro Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 800 pence
* TotalEnergies Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 61 euros
* Workday Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $270

>>> Initiation
* Lonza Rated New Buy at Redburn; PT 650 Swiss francs
* NKT Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 529.70 kroner
* Puig Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 24.40 euros
* Springer Nature Rated New Overweight at Barclays; PT 30 euros

>>> Call
* Equinor Upgraded to Buy at Berenberg on Gas Price Strength
* Goldman Sees ‘Significant’ Hit to US from Trump’s Canada Tariffs
* BofA Sees S&P Rising 11% to 6,666 and ‘Cyclical Inferno’ in 2025
* NKT a Major Player That’s Fairly Valued, New Neutral at Oddo BHF
* Volvo Raised, OEM Ratings Maintained at JPMorgan in 2025 Outlook

>>> US After Hours Summary: DELL -10.9%, WDAY -10.8%, ADSK -9.1%, HPQ -7.9%, CRW

After Hours Summary: DELL -10.9%, WDAY -10.8%, ADSK -9.1%, HPQ -7.9%, CRWD -3.7% lower on earnings; AMBA +18.2%, URBN +6.5% higher on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AMBA +18.2%, IREN +7.1%, URBN +6.5%, NTNX +2.3%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: VLN +7.8% (authorizes new $10 mln share repurchase program), EVLV +6.4% (announces resolution of FTC inquiry), YXT +2.2% (CEO resigns, names new CEO; also reports earnings), GTE +1.1% (announces exploration success in Ecuador and JV transaction and partnership), CYH +0.8% (co and WoodBridge Healthcare mutually agree to terminate asset purchase agreement), RTX +0.5% (awarded $591 mln U.S. Navy contract)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: DDD -11.5%, DELL -10.9%, WDAY -10.8%, GES -10.1%, ADSK -9.1% (also names new CFO), HPQ -7.9% (also increases dividend), CRWD -3.7%, PD -1.7%, JWN -0.5%, NOAH -0.3%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: LSAK -4.8% (files for 14,678,393 share offering by selling shareholders), POET -4% (to complete $25 mln direct offering), EXEL -2.6% (provides regulatory update on sNDA for Cabozantinib), MMS -1.2% (US H.H.S. and C.M.S. notify co of cancellation of the Contact Center Ops), YORW -0.3% (files $60 mln mixed shelf securities offering)

>>> US Close Dow +0.28% S&P +0.57% Nasdaq +0.63% Russell -0.73%

Closing Stock Market Summary
The stock market was mixed at the index level today, though broader market sentiment was negative throughout the session. At the close, decliners outpaced advancers by a 2-to-1 ratio at the NYSE and a 3-to-2 margin at the Nasdaq.

The underlying negative bias stemmed largely from President-elect Trump's announcement that he plans to impose tariffs—an additional 10% on imports from China and 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada—on his first day in office, contingent upon halting migrant flows and the trafficking of fentanyl into the U.S.

Concerns over inflationary pressures were piqued by these comments, initially sending Treasury yields higher and adding pressure on equities. The 10-yr yield reached 4.32% earlier and the 2-yr yield was at 4.29% despite the sharp 17.3% month-over-month decline in new home sales for October and a notable drop in the November Consumer Confidence Report, which showed a 12-month inflation expectations reading of 4.9%—the lowest since March 2020 (though still elevated, it signals a trend in the right direction).

The bond market shook off its early fears, though, and yields settled below intraday highs. The 10-yr yield settled four basis points higher than yesterday at 4.30% and the 2-yr yield settled two basis points lower at 4.25%. The Treasury market was also reacting to the FOMC Minutes from the November 6-7 meeting, which didn't contain anything surprising, and a $70 billion 5-yr note offering that met solid demand.

Despite the negative skew in market breadth, the equity market also seemed to brush off some its early concerns. The S&P 500 (+0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.3%) closed near their best levels of the day. The DJIA and S&P 500 also logged fresh record intraday highs.

The Russell 2000 (-0.7%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.4%) closed lower, largely driven by profit-taking activity. The former is still 10.4% higher this month and the latter sits on a 9.0% gain.

On an individual basis, Dow component Amgen (AMGN 280.01, -13.99, -4.8%) garnered some negative attention after disappointing news from its Phase 2 trial update for the weight-loss drug MariTide.

Other story stocks included retailers that reported earnings like Best Buy (BBY 88.48, -4.55, -4.9%), Kohl's (KSS 15.22, -3.12, -17.0%), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 146.62, -7.88, -5.1%), and Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS 212.22, -3.01, -1.4%).
  • Nasdaq Composite: +27.7%
  • S&P 500: +26.4%
  • S&P Midcap 400: +21.4%
  • Russell 2000: +19.6%
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +19.0%

Reviewing today's economic data:
  • September FHFA Housing Price Index 0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.4% from 0.3%
  • September S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 4.6% (consensus 4.7%); Prior 5.2%
  • November Consumer Confidence 111.7 (consensus 113.0); Prior was revised to 109.6 from 108.7
    • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers' view of the present situation picked up nicely, particularly as it relates to the labor market. That is noteworthy because, if consumers feel good about job security and/or their ability to find a new job, they are apt to keep spending freely on discretionary goods/services.
  • October New Home Sales 610K (consensus 718K); Prior 738K
    • The key takeaway from the report is that new home sales, which are tabulated when contracts are signed, dropped sharply in October as mortgage rates rose sharply in the wake of the Fed's first rate cut in September. The effects of the hurricanes were also likely to blame for the extra weakness seen in the South, which is the nation's biggest region for new home sales.

Looking ahead, Wednesday's calendar features a big batch of economic data due to the market holiday this week.

The lineup features:
  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior 1.7%)
  • 8:30 ET: October Personal Income (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%), Personal Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.5%), PCE Prices (consensus 0.2%; prior 0.2%), Core PCE Prices (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%), Q3 GDP -- second estimate ( consensus 2.8%; prior 2.8%), Q3 GDP Deflator -- second estimate (consensus 1.8%; prior 1.8%), October Durable Orders (consensus 0.4%; prior -0.8%), Durable Orders ex-transportation consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%), October advance goods trade balance (prior -$108.2 bln), advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.8%), Advance Wholesale Inventories (prior -0.1%), weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 217,000; prior 213,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.908 mln)
  • 10:00 ET: October Pending Home Sales (consensus -1.5%; prior 7.4%)
  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +0.545 mln)
  • 12:00 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -3 bcf)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • PSTX +222.4%, SMTC +19.2%, WWD +9.9%, UHT +7.5%, EXAS +7%, RUM +5.6%, BCYC +5.3%, RIVN +4.7%, DAN +2.8%, ZBH +1.2%, GEV +1%, INTC +0.6%, VSTO +0.5%, REPL +0.5%, BERY +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • ALEC -23.2%, ATRO -17.7%, LESL -16.2%, BLBD -13.6%, ZM -7.2%, CAN -6.7%, CENT -5.7%, SNBR -4.6%, KSS -3.2%, MT -2.5%, FLNC -2%, ENTA -1.4%, ICFI -1.1%, CNP -1%, MAC -0.6%, ARVN -0.5%, A -0.5%

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications


• UCB (UNC TH) -1.5%
• Stellantis (8TI TH) -1.6%
◦ Watch Mexico-Exposed European Stocks as Trump Vows More Tariffs
• Continental (CON TH) -1.6%
• Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -1.7%
• VW (VOW3 TH) -1.9%
◦ Watch Mexico-Exposed European Stocks as Trump Vows More Tariffs
• Aviva (GU81 TH) -2%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 26th of November 2024

>>> Up
* Arkema Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 100 euros
* Chevron Raised to Buy at Citi; PT $185
* Deutsche Telekom Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 35 euros
* Enagas Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 13.50 euros
* Melrose Industries PT Raised to 850 pence at JPMorgan
* Next Raised to Outperform at RBC

>>> Down
* Amundi Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 70 euros
* Ariston Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 3.50 euros
* Avolta AG Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 29 Swiss francs
* H&M Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 165 kronor
* Ithaca Energy Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 120 pence
* Morgan Stanley Cut to Hold at HSBC
* NIBE Industrier Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley
* Wetteri Oyj Cut to Sell at Inderes; PT 32 euro cents

>>> Initiation
* Ambu Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein; PT 132.40 kroner
* Dowlais Rated New Hold at Berenberg
* Gerresheimer Rated New Outperform at Bernstein; PT 100.30 euros
* Kitron Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 36 kroner
* Puig Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 23 euros

>>> Call
* Deutsche Telekom Upgraded at Oddo BHF as Risks Pushed Back
* Enagas Shares Now Reflect Uncertainties, JPMorgan Upgrades
* Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley Cut to Hold at HSBC on Risk Reward
* Holmen Underweight at Morgan Stanley, Smurfit Top Sector Pick
* Puig Gets Another Buy, Citi Sees Strong Fragrance-Market Outlook
* S&P 500 Positioning Back at Record Highs: Citigroup Strategists