FT : Prada poised to seal Versace deal after Trump’s tariffs spur $200mn discoun

Prada poised to seal Versace deal after Trump’s tariffs spur $200mn discount
Italian fashion group set to announce cut price $1.38bn tie-up with Capri-owned house as soon as Thursday

Italian fashion group Prada is closing in on the purchase of Versace after negotiating a discount of more than $200mn, due to the impact of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.

Prada and Capri Holdings, Versace’s owner, are set to announce a deal worth about $1.38bn as soon as Thursday, according to people with direct knowledge of the talks. These people added that the transaction price, which had been expected to be agreed at about $1.6bn, was renegotiated downwards in recent days following the market turmoil and pressures that US tariffs were expected to place on Versace’s business.

The people cautioned that the timing of the deal’s announcement could slip and small price adjustments could still be made. Capri chief executive John Idol is in Milan to finalise the details with the Prada family, according to one of the people. Prada and Capri both declined to comment.

Capri’s share price has fallen by more than a third since Trump announced sweeping tariffs on global trading partners last week, crashing markets and reducing the group’s total market value to $1.5bn.

Capri, which also owns Jimmy Choo and Michael Kors, and the Prada Group have been locked in exclusive negotiations for more than a month. Capri’s initial asking price of €3bn and the future of Versace’s creative director, Donatella Versace, were two of the main sticking points in the negotiations, according to people close to the talks.

Last month, Donatella Versace stepped down after 30 years at the creative helm of her namesake label and was replaced by Dario Vitale, the design director of Miu Miu, one of the Prada Group’s brands.

The move was seen as a sign that the two groups were edging closer to an agreement. However, recent market turmoil and Capri’s share-price plunge threatened to derail the deal, said two people close to the talks.

A cut-price deal will mean Capri takes an even steeper haircut on Versace, which it bought in 2018 from the Versace family at an enterprise value of €1.83bn.

Versace’s brand equity has suffered from Capri’s decision to license many of its products to third parties, including Luxottica and Euroitalia. Versace’s sales fell by almost 11 per cent in its most recent quarter and the brand currently operates at a loss.

Prada’s high brow aesthetic and Versace’s more maximalist brand are seen as potentially complementary, but some industry insiders see Versace’s relaunch as a complex task.

Vitale, who enjoyed success at Miu Miu alongside founder Miuccia Prada, will be tasked with reviving the label by making it more appealing to a new generation of luxury consumers.

New York-based Capri has been looking to sell Versace for some time. The plan accelerated last year when a US court blocked a proposed $8.5bn merger with rival Tapestry, which owns Coach and other affordable luxury brands, over competition concerns. It has also been entertaining interest from potential buyers of luxury shoe brand Jimmy Choo, according to people familiar with the situation, which it bought for $1.35bn in 2017.

Capri has faced challenges to both its revenues and profitability as brands across its portfolio struggle amid a global luxury slowdown, which has hit the aspirational segment its brands target particularly hard. Michael Kors — which accounts for about 70 per cent of group revenues — has been performing poorly. A deal would allow Capri to refocus on turning the brand around while cutting its debt.

WSJ : Prada Deal for Versace at Risk of Collapsing With Market in Turmoil

Prada Deal for Versace at Risk of Collapsing With Market in Turmoil
Pending deal talks offer latest example of Trump trade war wreaking havoc on markets

Prada’s 1913 -1.19%decrease; red down pointing triangle talks to acquire Versace from fashion conglomerate Capri Holdings CPRI -1.56%decrease; red down pointing triangle are at risk of collapsing at the eleventh hour with financial markets in historic turmoil, according to people familiar with the matter.

Prada has a tentative deal to acquire Versace from Capri for roughly $1.4 billion, which could be announced as soon as Thursday morning. But Versace’s namesake family still have yet to sign off on the agreement, the people added.

As of Wednesday morning, the likelihood of a deal was still 50-50, one of the people said.

The market swings and the uncertain impact of tariffs, which have slammed into luxury retail, are complicating the two sides’ coming to a final pact.

The uncertain deal talks offer the latest example of how President Trump’s escalating trade war is wrecking havoc across Wall Street and forcing companies to rethink big decisions. The retail industry in particular has been hit hard.

Shares of Prada, which is based in Milan but listed in Hong Kong, fell 1.2% on Wednesday and are down more than 15% over the last five trading days. Capri shares fell less than 1% Wednesday morning, with the stock down more than 40% year to date.

FT : Goldman’s anatomy of a bear market

Goldman’s anatomy of a bear market
News you can use

Futures indicate that the US stock market could suffer another iffy day when trading resumes, putting it perilously close to bear market territory.

Goldman Sachs’ chief global equity strategist Peter Oppenheimer has therefore updated his bear market anatomy report, and made it public for Alphaville readers here.

After all, as Oppenheimer points out, not all bear markets are created equal, and its nature “has some bearing on the triggers, timing and speed of the recovery”.

Here you can see a full list of every US bear market going back to the early 1800s, how long they lasted, how deep they were and how long it took for stocks to fully recover (higher-res here):


As you can see, Oppenheimer sorts bear markets into three main categories: structural, cyclical and event-driven.

He reckons that we are now on the cusp of a classic event-driven one — triggered by the new American tariff regime — but warns that it “could easily morph into a cyclical bear market given growing recession risk”.

This matters most for how long it might prove to be. The damage tends to be roughly equal, but event-driven ones tend to be brief (and therefore perfect for dip-buying investors) while cyclical bear markets on average last two years, and it take about five years to fully recover the lost ground.

FT : Volkswagen overcomes China EV slump by doubling European sales

Volkswagen overcomes China EV slump by doubling European sales
Jump for German carmaker’s market share comes as former leader Tesla lags behind

Germany’s Volkswagen on Wednesday said its electric vehicle deliveries in Europe in this year’s first quarter were more than double the same period last year, offsetting a sustained sales slump in China.

The company also increased its first-quarter deliveries of EVs in the US by 51 per cent compared with January to March 2024, to 19,900.

Sales of EVs have increased across Europe during the first three months of the year as carmakers have rolled out new models in anticipation of forthcoming tougher emissions rules from the EU.

The growth in Europe also comes at the same time as a sharp slump in sales in Europe for Tesla, the US-based manufacturer led by US President Donald Trump’s ally Elon Musk, previously the EV market leader in the region.

The rises in Europe and the US took the EV share of VW’s vehicle sales in the quarter up to 10 per cent, from 6 per cent in the same quarter last year, despite a 37 per cent fall in sales of the vehicle type in China. EVs accounted for 158,100 of the group’s sales in Europe, 17 per cent of the total.

Marco Schubert, a VW senior director of sales, said: “Gains in North and South America as well as in Europe have more than compensated for the expected decline in China.”

VW and other legacy brands such as France’s Renault have increased their market share at Tesla’s expense. According to Schmidt Automotive Research, the US brand’s share of Europe’s car market in the first three months was only 1.7 per cent, down from 2.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 and half its 3.4 per cent peak.

VW’s Europe region includes countries across continental Europe and the UK, not just the 27-member EU.

Analysts have said Tesla is suffering both from an ageing product portfolio and a consumer backlash against Musk’s prominent political role, including his interventions in German politics in favour of the far-right Alternative for Germany party.

VW’s first-quarter figures were similar to those of luxury-car maker Porsche, controlled by Volkswagen, which reported first-quarter deliveries on Tuesday. It also reported a surge in US deliveries ahead of the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs on most car imports to the US that began on April 3.

Porsche reported a pronounced increase in demand for its electric Macan, whose retail price starts at $75,000. One person at the company attributed the increase to a “Musk effect . . . former Tesla drivers going to Porsche”.

The higher US sales for VW and Porsche increase both companies’ dependence on the US market at the same time that raised tariffs make imported vehicles less competitive in that market.

Both the EU and UK have changed rules about vehicle emissions to support the car industry in light of its vulnerability to the trade war started by Trump. The EU has watered down emissions standards for vehicles, while the UK has reduced the fines facing carmakers that fail to hit EV sales targets.

EV demand has also been bolstered by industry incentives, such as the decision earlier this week by both Ford and VW to offer consumers free home electric chargers, or free power for certain distances.

Ford’s UK managing director, Lisa Brankin, told the Financial Times there was clear demand for electric vehicles.

But she added: “[The consumer incentives] are what’s needed to help drive momentum in the market.”

Also on Wednesday, South Korea’s Kia lowered its target for global annual EV sales by 2030 by 21 per cent, to 1.3mn vehicles, amid the geopolitical uncertainty.

FT : Tariffs are coming for my . . .  nuclear warheads?

Tariffs are coming for my . . .  nuclear warheads?
Imports boom

In the scramble to figure out how exactly “Liberation Day” is going to upend global trade, nuclear errors may occur.

Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond released a great chart (covered in mainFT) identifying the sectors that will be most impacted by Trump’s sweeping trade levies.

The first four — leather goods, apparel, furniture, and textile product mills — made a lot of sense. These industries all import heavily from the countries facing the steepest tariffs, like Vietnam, China and Cambodia.

But the fifth item prompted a bit more head-scratching. And when the Richmond Fed kindly provided the underlying data for the chart, they also supplied a clarification for the ages.

PS: we had a typo in one of the industries, instead of “Nuclear Warheads” it should have been “Support Activities for agriculture and forestry.”

You might be wondering how “nuclear warheads” ended up in place of “support activities for agriculture and forestry.” And if you’re developing conspiracy theories about the cover-up of nuke inflation, we’re afraid we must let you down: it seems it really was a typo.

The North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code for “support activities for agriculture and forestry” is 115. The Product Service Code (PSC) code for “nuclear warheads and warhead sections” is 1115.

As fat-finger errors involving nuclear warheads go, it’s probably one of the better ones.

Feeling a little more relaxed, FT Alphaville started asking the obvious question: what on earth are “support activities for agriculture and forestry”?

Well, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Industries in the Support Activities for Agriculture and Forestry subsector provide support services that are an essential part of agricultural and forestry production.”

So that’s that all cleared up.

The chart on the Richmond Fed’s website has now been “updated to accurately reflect the proper industries” and the original work has been lost to history. Here’s the disarmed version:

NY Post : CIA files reveal search for Hitler in South America 10 years after his

CIA files reveal search for Hitler in South America 10 years after his suicide as Argentina prepares to release classified docs on Nazi fugitives

While the CIA has an autopsy report confirming Hitler’s death, other documents show field agents suspected Hitler may have taken refuge in South America under an alias and obtained a photo of a man with a striking resemblance to the Nazi leader.

A declassified file from October 1945 shows that agents with the US War Department told the FBI of a possible secret hideout at a spa hotel in La Falda, Argentina, that Hitler may have used if he survived.

The document states that the owner of the hotel and her family were “enthusiastic supporters of Adolf Hitler” and had made financial contributions to the Nazi party in its early days in the 1920s through propaganda Minister Joseph Goebbels.

“This voluntary support of the Nazi party was never forgotten by Hitler,” the docs claim. “During the years after he came to power, her friendship with Hitler became so close that she and members of her family lived with Hitler in the same hotel on the occasion of their annual visit to Germany.”

The report claims that the hotel had “already made the necessary preparations” for Hitler to take refuge that their hotel in Argentina if he “should at any time get into difficulty” and needed a “safe retreat.”

Another document from October 1955 from a CIA agent with the code name “CIMELODY-3” said he received information from a friend who spoke to a man claiming to be a former Nazi SS soldier Phillip Citroen, who “confidently” told him Hitler was still alive in Colombia.

Citroen claimed to have talked to the former Nazi leader monthly and provided CIMELODY-3’s friend with a photograph showing him with the man he claimed to be Hitler on a beach in Tunja, Colombia.

CIMELODY-3’s friend, whose name was not provided in the document, unknowingly stole the picture from Citroen long enough for the agent to make a copy.

The man alleged to be Hitler was going by “Adolf Schrittelmayor,” and he left Colombia for Argentina in January 1955.

“Philip Citroen – commented that in as much as ten years have passed since the end of World War II, the Allies could no longer prosecute Hitler as a criminal of war,” the document stated.

On Nov. 4, 1955, the CIA approved agents contacting a person known in the files as “GIRELLA” to further investigate the history of “Adolf Schrittelmayor” in Colombia before 1955.

However, the same document states that “enormous efforts could be expended on this matter with remote possibilities of establishing anything concrete. Therefore, we suggest that this matter be dropped.”

It appears following 1955, no other documents have been made publicly available in the CIA’s declassified files to suggest agents were hunting for Hitler.

While there’s no concrete proof of the conspiracy that Hitler may have survived the war and fled Germany, members of the Nazi party did use “ratlines” to reach Argentina and other South American Countries to avoid persecution for their crimes after WWII.

In 1960, Israeli Mossad agents covertly captured one of the masterminds behind the Holocaust, Adolf Eichmann, from Argentina and brought him back to stand trial in Jerusalem, where he was found guilty and sentenced to death by hanging.
SS physician Josef Mengele — dubbed the “angel of death” for his disturbing medical experiments on prisoners at Auschwitz — escaped through “ratlines” and eluded capture. He later died from drowning after suffering from a heart attack while swimming in Brazil in 1979.

Late last month, Argentina’s interior minister, Guillermo Alberto Francos, announced that classified files relating to “Nazis who sought refuge in Argentina and were protected for many years” after World War II would be released, the Buenos Aires Times reported.

“The President has instructed that all relevant documents from any state institution be made public because there is no reason to keep them classified,” Francos said.

The records will detail banking and financial transactions and the use of Nazi “ratlines.”

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • Americold Realty Trust (COLD) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays, tgt $21
    • Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies, tgt $167.88
    • Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $26
    • Bath & Body Works (BBWI) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $35
    • CF Industries (CF) upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at Scotiabank, tgt $81
    • Constellation Energy (CEG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $232
    • Eastman Chemical (EMN) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $91
    • First BanCorp (FBP) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $20
    • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Sandler, tgt $40
    • Noah Holdings (NOAH) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $11.50
    • Popular (BPOP) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $100
    • Simon Property (SPG) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel, tgt $168.50
    • Starbucks (SBUX) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies, tgt $76
    • Travelers (TRV) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $247
  • Downgrades
    • Bio-Techne (TECH) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Bloom Energy (BE) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Redburn Atlantic, tgt $10
    • Ford (F) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Bernstein
    • Harvard Bioscience (HBIO) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • Health Catalyst (HCAT) downgraded to In Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI
    • Invesco (IVZ) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $13
    • LyondellBasell (LYB) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital, tgt $62
    • Myriad Genetics (MYGN) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Guggenheim
    • OFG Bancorp (OFG) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $42
    • PTC (PTC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $160
    • Rallybio (RLYB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at H.C. Wainwright
    • Rio Tinto (RIO) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
    • RxSight (RXST) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $16
    • W. R. Berkley (WRB) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $69
  • Others
    • Acadia Health (ACHC) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $36
    • Affirm Holdings (AFRM) initiated with an Outperform at Evercore ISI, tgt $50
    • Ardent Health Partners (ARDT) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $16
    • Atlantic Union (AUB) initiated with an Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $32
    • Bionano Genomics Inc (BNGO) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $10
    • Block (XYZ) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $52
    • Boot Barn (BOOT) initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $100
    • Casella Waste (CWST) initiated with a Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $130
    • Centene (CNC) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Cigna (CI) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $384
    • Community Health (CYH) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Couchbase (BASE) initiated with a Buy at Rosenblatt, tgt $20
    • CRH (CRH) initiated with a Buy at Loop Capital, tgt $114
    • CubeSmart (CUBE) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $39
    • Elevance (ELV) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $518
    • Extra Space (EXR) initiated with an Outperform at Mizuho, tgt $141
    • Global Payments (GPN) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $85
    • HCA Healthcare (HCA) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
    • Humana (HUM) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $326
    • Mastercard (MA) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $550
    • Molina (MOH) initiated with a Neutral at Guggenheim
    • National Storage (NSA) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $35
    • Newlake Capital Partners (NLCP) initiated with a Neutral at Lucid Capital Markets, tgt $14
    • Palvella Therapeutics In (PVLA) initiated with a Buy at Chardan, tgt $50
    • PayPal (PYPL) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $65
    • Public Storage (PSA) initiated with a Neutral at Mizuho, tgt $287
    • Shift4 Payments (FOUR) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $80
    • Six Flags (FUN) initiated with a Buy at UBS, tgt $49
    • Standex (SXI) initiated with a Buy at Roth MKM, tgt $175
    • Tenet (THC) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $165
    • Toast (TOST) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $29
    • Tractor Supply (TSCO) initiated with an Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $56
    • United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) initiated with a Neutral at UBS
    • Universal Health (UHS) initiated with a Buy at Guggenheim, tgt $208
    • Vertiv Holdings (VRT) initiated with an Outperform at Daiwa, tgt $73
    • Visa (V) initiated with an In Line at Evercore ISI, tgt $330
    • VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $36

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • NEOG -6.5%, CALM -5% (also to acquire Echo Lake Foods), NRIX -1.4%, WMT -0.7% (guidance)
Other news:
  • CDP -6.5% (files mixed securities shelf offering) OS -3.5% (approved certain changes to executive management - co-founder Thomas Shea will assume the role of president)
  • AMLX -3.3% (Announces First Participant Dosed in Phase 1, Multiple Ascending Dose LUMINA Trial of AMX0114 in People Living with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis)
  • CRGY -2.6% (transitions to single class of common stock)
  • VSCO -2.4% (announces series of leadership appointments)
  • KKR -2.1% (nearing deal to acquire Karo Healthcare, according to Bloomberg)
  • TXNM -1.9% (confirms recommendation to approve unopposed stipulation in PNM 2025 rate request)
  • LOT -1.7% (names new CFO)
  • POST -1.7% (to close Cobourg, Ontario and Sparks, Nevada facilities)