>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 10th of January 2025

>>> Up
* Alcon AG Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 93 Swiss francs
* Antofagasta Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Deutsche Telekom Raised to Buy at UBS; PT 33 euros
* DSM-Firmenich Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 128 euros
* FLSmidth Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 375 kroner
* Gilead Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $113
* Hannover Re Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 285 euros
* NXP Semi Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT $257
* Reckitt Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 5,500 pence
* Snowflake Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $190
* UnitedHealth Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $595
* Vinci Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 121 euros
* YPF ADRs Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT $59.50

>>> Down
* Aena Cut to Neutral at Citi; PT 210 euros
* AMD Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT $129
* Croda Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 3,700 pence
* Haleon Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 410 pence
* Haleon ADRs Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $10.20
*
* ON Semi Cut to Hold at Truist Secs; PT $60
* Scor Cut to Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 26 euros
* Serco Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 175 pence
* Wacker Chemie Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 77 euros

>>> Initiation
* BioNTech ADRs Rated New Buy at Truist Secs; PT $172
* Liontrust Rated New Underperform at RBC; PT 390 pence
* Polar Capital Rated New Outperform at RBC; PT 600 pence
* SIG Group Rated New Overweight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Call
* *CITI STRATEGISTS RAISE GLOBAL HEALTH CARE STOCKS TO OVERWEIGHT

>>> What to look at today - 10th of December 2024

Asian equities declined in a sign of caution ahead of US jobs data that will help shape the outlook for interest rates.  MSCI’s Asia benchmark dropped for a third session as shares in most markets dropped. Contracts for the S&P 500 were little changed after the US stock market was closed Thursday to observe a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter.  Treasuries were steady in Asian trading, following a rout earlier this week that drove 30-year yields to the highest since 2023. Chinese yields rose as the People’s Bank of China said it will temporarily halting its buying of government bonds, a surprise move that came after the benchmark yield slumped to a record low. The offshore yuan edged higher against the dollar. Global financial markets have been volatile at the start of the year, with Treasury yields marching higher as investors moderated their view on the pace of Federal Reserve easing. That shift has reverberated through Asia, where a slowdown in Chinese growth had already sapped risk sentiment. The MSCI EM stock index entered a correction in the previous session. 
Several Fed officials confirmed Thursday that the central bank will likely hold interest rates at current levels for an extended period, only cutting again when inflation meaningfully cools.  An index of the dollar was slightly stronger, extending a three-day advance. The yen slipped 0.1% against the greenback. Traders are on alert for the potential Japan will support the yen, with the US jobs report looming as a potential catalyst for sharp moves in the currency.  Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data is expected to show a slowdown in hiring in an otherwise robust labor market. Median estimates for the figures forecast that 165,000 jobs were added to the economy in December. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% and average hourly earnings growth is seen cooling a touch from a month earlier. 
The jobs data will offer a litmus test for the market’s “hawkish Fed pricing,” according to strategists Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. They noted that the implication from the bounce in Treasuries is that the pre-payrolls setup will be slightly more balanced – despite a bias favoring a strong showing from the employment figures. Elsewhere, the pound remained under pressure after slipping to a more than one-year low in the prior session as gilts sank on concern the UK’s Labour government will struggle to keep the deficit in check as borrowing costs surge. Australia’s 10-year yield climbed.  In corporate news, Nvidia hit back at signs the Biden administration will unveil fresh chip curbs. The tech giant said the White House was trying to undercut the incoming Trump administration by imposing last-minute rules. Shares of Bloks Group Ltd., the popular Chinese maker of Ultraman and Transformers figurines, surged 82% in their Hong Kong trading debut. 
Oil headed for a third weekly gain as signs of market tightness, including falling US stockpiles, offset concerns about demand weakness from China. 

Nikkei -1.05% Hang Seng -0.85% CSI -0.89% Shanghai -0.99% Shenzen -1.73%

Eur$ 1.0287 CNH 7.3552 CNY 7.3323 JPY 158.40 GBP 1.2281 CHF 0.9130 RUB 102.2500 TRY 35.4254 WTI$ 74.37 +0.61% Gold 2,675 +0.28% BTC 93,966 +2.02% ETH 3,262 +1.69%

S&P -0.33% Nasdaq -0.51% EuroStoxx -0.16% FTSE -0.07% Dax -0.11% SMI -0.25%

Macro :
- UK Markets to Rework Room for BOE Rate Cuts Amid a Steeper Curve
- Pictet Cautions on Crowded Trades, Favors Banking Shares
- Bond Traders See Jobs Testing Hawkish Fed Pricing: Markets Wrap
- JPMorgan Sees China Stocks Rebound After Trump’s Inauguration
- *FED'S SCHMID FAVORS GRADUAL RATE CUTS IF DATA IMPROVE
- *ARGENTINA DRYNESS HURTING SOY , CORN PLANTS: GRAIN EXCHANGE

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Delivered 766 Aircraft in 2024, Target Was 770 Jets, Airbus Confident of Returning to Pre-Covid Delivery Levels Soon
- AMBUB DC : Ambu Prelim 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- AEP US : American Electric Power Sells Wires Stake for $2.8 Billion (3% of EV, 6.3% of Total Debt)
- AUTH US (Not Listed) : BlackRock Is Said In Talks to Sell Authentic Brands Group Stake
- BAC US : *BOFA, JPMORGAN SET TO BOOST TRADER, BANKER BONUSES 10% OR MORE
- BO DC : B&O 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- BMW GY : BMW Bid to Gain vs. China Rivals Bolstered by Next-Gen Platform
- BAYN GY : Bayer Acquires Smart Earth Oilseed in Deal to Expand Biofuels
- BBVA SM ; BBVA Simplifies Sabadell Bid With Lower Acceptance Threshold
- BP/ LN : Iraq Talks With BP on Northern Oil Fields Progressing: Ministry
- CPRI US : Prada Could Be Interested in Buying Versace: Sole
- CCO US : Clear Channel Outdoor to Sell Europe-North Segment for $625m (1)
- CBKGY : UniCredit Well-Poised for Consolidation With Commerzbank Stake
- 2007 HK : Country Garden Yet to Get Key Bondholders’ Support for Debt Plan
- CVI US : Icahn Enterprises Gets About 878,212 CVR Shares in Tender Offer
- D6H GY : Datagroup Won’t Pursue Spin-Off of Almato Unit
- EOAN GY : Hungarian Bid for Eon’s Romania Assets May Be Blocked: FT
- 3333 HK : China Evergrande’s Key Unit Ordered to Liquidate by HK Court
- HOLN SW : Holcim Names Chairman Jan Jenisch CEO of North American Company, Jenisch Set to Lead Holcim’s North American Unit After Spinoff
- IFL AU : Insignia Says It Hasn’t Got Any Proposal From Brookfield
- LLY US : Alzheimer’s Drugs Eyed by Investors Seeking Obesity-Like Gains
- BMPS IM : Del Vecchio Holding Delfin Raises Monte Paschi Stake to 9.78%, Del Vecchios Hike Paschi Stake for More Power in Potential M&A
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Gets Orders Totalling 259 MW From Spain
- 1913 HK : Prada Could Be Interested in Buying Versace: Sole
- RNO FP : WDP Buys Former Renault Site in Vilvoorde for €100M
- 3382 JP : Apollo Weighs $9.5 Billion Stake in Seven & i Buyout (2)
- 2330 TT : TSMC’s Sales Beat Estimates in a Boost for AI’s Outlook in 2025
- UBI FP : Ubisoft Hires Advisors to Weigh Options After Buyout Interest, *UBISOFT'S ASSASSIN’S CREED SHADOWS DELAYED TO MARCH 20
- UBW FP : Unibail Sells 25% Stake in Centrum Černý Most to Upvest, RSJ
- UCG IM : UniCredit Well-Poised for Consolidation With Commerzbank Stake, UniCredit EPS May Gain 10%-Plus on a Commerzbank Tie-Up
- WDP BB : WDP Buys Former Renault Site in Vilvoorde for €100M
- WYNN US : Wynn Resorts Agrees to Buy Crown Resorts Casino in London

FT : Hungarian energy bid under review over Russia concerns, says Romanian minis

Hungarian energy bid under review over Russia concerns, says Romanian minister
Bucharest could mirror Spain’s recent decision to block a takeover on security grounds, says Sebastian Burduja

A Hungarian bid for a major energy provider in Romania is under review after suspicions arose about the motives behind the inflated offer, including fears of Russian influence, according to the Romanian energy minister.

Hungary’s state-owned energy group MVM has recently outbid other companies interested in purchasing the Romanian gas and electricity distribution network owned by Germany’s Eon.

Energy minister Sebastian Burduja told the Financial Times that the takeover could be blocked on security grounds, in a move similar to Spain’s last year, when Madrid stopped a railway merger with a Hungarian company partly because of its ties to Russia.

“We have seen precedent in Spain where a transaction involving the Hungarian entity was rejected by a similar committee to the Romanian one,” Burduja said. “We will have to consider all of that then to reach a decision.”

Eon Energie România serves millions of Romanian customers with electricity and gas, with a market share that is close to 50 per cent, he said.

MVM is Hungary’s second-largest company by revenue and has been the main importer of Russian gas to Hungary. It is also operating a Russian-designed nuclear power plant in Hungary, which is being expanded under the aegis of Rosatom, Moscow’s state nuclear giant.

The Hungarian company offered to pay as much as €200mn for the majority stake in Eon Energie, which Burduja estimated to be worth no more than €50mn. The offer was far larger than what competitors, which included two state owned Romanian energy companies, were willing to pay.

Burduja said intelligence services would feed into the risk assessment of MVM taking over Eon Energie.

“The value of the transaction will be under scrutiny . . . and potential implications in the energy market,” he said. “[We will] investigate further, probably also asking for a viewpoint from the national security establishment.”

“We will not allow Russian gas to enter the country,” Burduja said, adding that the country was working to exploit its own natural gas resources and buy additional supplies on the spot market.

Romania is particularly sensitive to any Russian influence given its proximity to the Ukraine war and after it annulled a presidential election because of alleged Russian meddling.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has repeatedly criticised the EU’s sanctions on the Russian energy sector, saying the west was “shooting itself in the foot” by rejecting cheap gas and meeting President Vladimir Putin last summer, prompting a backlash from fellow European leaders.

Orbán in December told the Financial Times after discussing the MVM deal with Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu that there were “outstanding issues” still to be ironed out.

“The Romanian premier raised these and asked . . . to set up a joint task force to calm everyone and make everything transparent,” Orbán said, leaving unanswered further questions about Russian involvement in the deal.

MVM said it would co-operate with Romanian authorities, but declined to discuss details of what it said was an ongoing transaction. It said its regional gas procurement portfolio was diverse both in terms of sources, routes and maturity.

Russian gas supplied by state-owned Gazprom “constitutes only 40 per cent of the total regional trade portfolio”, the company said. It receives the Russian gas through a pipeline crossing Turkey, the last remaining route to Europe after a transit deal between Gazprom and Ukraine ended on January 1.

Eon did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

WWD : As Luxury Struggles, More Accessible Handbag Lines Are Finding Success

As Luxury Struggles, More Accessible Handbag Lines Are Finding Success
Contemporary brands with price points under $1,000 are seeing strong consumer demand.

The handbag category has softened over recent years as economic pressures and other factors have sparked large price increases among luxury brands and have caused customers to cut back on spending. Despite the challenges of the category, industry experts are seeing a bright spot in the market: contemporary handbag brands.

In the last year, interest among customers in contemporary handbag brands has skyrocketed as many are looking at more affordable options from labels that can be just as well-known as their luxury competitors. Price point is the leading driver in this growing popularity, with most labels offering styles under $1,000. Data shows there’s a wide range of brands that are resonating with consumers.

According to London-based shopping platform Lyst, brands like Turkish label Manu Atelier have increased in demand by 117 percent in the last quarter — with searches for its shoulder bag up 64 percent month-to-month — and British label DeMellier London saw an increase of 119 percent last quarter, with its New York leather tote bag up in searches by 153 percent month-to-month, its Tokyo suede shoulder bag up 362 percent week-to-week and its Vancouver leather bag up 521 percent month-to-month.

In the U.S., 11-year-old accessories label Mansur Gavriel is having a resurgence, with Lyst data showing demand for its Mini Cloud Clutch growing by 992 percent last quarter, its Gaia shoulder bag growing by 311 percent month-to-month and its Candy hobo bag increasing by 90 percent month-to-month.

“The competition is coming from a lot of different ways in this market,” said Beth Goldstein, executive director and industry analyst of accessories and footwear at Circana. “Consumer priorities have changed in terms of the importance of the category, especially in the last few years where wallets definitely have become tough. Coming out of the pandemic, there was a lot of savings — it was all about stimulus — and the designer business had a really good year and a really strong 2021 and 2022, and has since really fallen off.”

Aside from price point, innovation and design are other factors contributing to contemporary brands’ popularity. While luxury houses tend to rely on their icons, contemporary labels are able to respond more quickly to industry trends and customer preferences to deliver newness.

“They can move quickly, they can be nimble and they have the ability to be more playful on social [media],” said Karen Gibson, president of the Accessories Council. “They don’t have corporate rules necessarily. I’m a big fan of the luxury brands and there’s a foundation to them that will be there, and we’re always going to want and admire those brands and have them in our wardrobes, but I think there is a playful way to add some of the other contemporary brands.”

Growth in contemporary handbag brands can also be attributed to the increased popularity of novelty bags in the last year, where many customers swapped their traditional black or brown leather options for more playful and graphic styles. As part of this trend, fashion brands like Staud, Cult Gaia and Susan Alexandra, among others, have reigned.

“What I am seeing is exceptional novelty bags that draw you in,” Gibson said. “To some degree brands like Staud and Alexis Bittar, they all have something that’s novel and fun that sucks you in, and then what you end up buying is something maybe more practical, but those novelty bags I think are doing quite well.”

Department stores are also seeing this impact. At Nordstrom, specifically, the retailer said customers are gravitating toward contemporary labels they’re familiar with on the apparel side, such as Veronica Beard and Staud.

“Our customers seek high-quality bags with excellent design, and contemporary handbag brands deliver just that,” said Debbi Hartley-Triesch, executive vice president and general merchandise manager of beauty, accessories and home at Nordstrom. “These brands use premium materials without compromising on quality. They offer timeless, classic handbags as well as trendy, seasonal options. Contemporary handbags are more accessible, providing high-end style at a more affordable price point.”

Both Gibson and Goldstein also noted that functionality and practicality have become important factors for customers purchasing their handbags. While on the lower end of the price spectrum, both experts highlighted the viral popularity of Uniqlo’s nylon shoulder bag priced at $14.90, Lululemon’s Everywhere Belt Bag priced at $38 and Trader Joe’s mini canvas tote bags priced at $2.99 as indications that function is just as important as design for customers.

“Why some of these lower price point bags are winning is just the idea that really the function has become super important just to everybody’s busy lifestyles,” Goldstein said. “You’re starting to see that come into play a little bit more and the contemporary space doesn’t necessarily have more or less of this. But I think it’s why overall the handbag space is struggling because other things are coming in that are providing more function and practicality to consumers.”

While the range in prices in the contemporary market is vast and isn’t on the level of luxury houses, the innovation, quality, design and functionality these contemporary handbag brands present make them a strong player in the overall category that should not be ignored.

“The contemporary space is still a smaller piece of [the handbag category] compared to the designer piece,” Goldstein said. “Then the bridge market — like your Coaches, your Michael Kors, Kate Spade and Tory Burch — that’s like the biggest meat of this market, but that’s been struggling. Not all of them — there are some brand highlights within that as well — but the designer space has definitely lost share over the last five years and contemporary has gained a little bit.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9th of January 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Admicom Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 53 euros
* Amadeus Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 82 euros
* Ambu Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 136 kroner (+)
* Atlas Copco Raised to Buy at Carnegie; PT 200 kronor (+)
* Beiersdorf Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* Danone Raised to Market Perform at Bernstein (+)
* DSM-Firmenich Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT 122 euros
* Dunelm Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 1,275 pence
* Galderma PT Raised to 117.10 Swiss francs at Berenberg
* Grenke Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 21 euros (+)
* Hypoport Raised to Buy at Hauck & Aufhaeuser; PT 222 euros (+)
* Immofinanz Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Interpublic Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT $38
* Melexis Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 70 euros
* Orkla Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* Partners Group Raised to Overweight at Barclays
* Pirelli Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane
* Reach Subsea Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 9 kroner
* Repsol Raised to Buy at UBS
* Saipem Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Shell Raised to Buy at UBS
* SIG Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 24 pence (+)
* UBS Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
* Unilever Raised to Outperform at Bernstein (+)
* UPM-Kymmene Raised to Outperform at Davy (+)
* Vitrolife Raised to Market Perform at Handelsbanken (+)
* Xior Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)

>>> Down
* Avanza Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* CVC Capital Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 22 euros
* Eni Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 14 euros
* Evolution Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 1,000 kronor
* Experian Cut to Underperform at Bernstein (+)
* Haleon Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* ISS Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 127 kroner
* Just Group Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 170 pence
* L'Oreal Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein (+)
* Lindt & Spruengli Cut to Underperform at Bernstein (+)
* Lufthansa PT Cut to 5 euros from 5.50 euros at JPMorgan (+)
* Porsche SE Cut to Underperform at BNPP Exane; PT 31 euros
* Retail Estates Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* SUSS MicroTec Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 48 euros
* Swatch Cut to Underperform at RBC; PT 140 Swiss francs
* VAT Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 350 Swiss francs
* Wise Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 1,150 pence

>>> Initiation
* Admiral Reinstated Underperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Aviva Reinstated Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 541 pence
* Bellway Reinstated Neutral at BofA (+)
* Legal & General Reinstated Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* M&G Reinstated Neutral at Mediobanca SpA; PT 220.19 pence
* Phoenix Group Rated New Underperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Puig Assumed Buy at CIC; PT 24 euros (+)
* RHI Magnesita Rated New Buy at Investec; PT 3,900 pence

>>> Call
* Business Services View Raised at Morgan Stanley; Hays, ISS Cut
* Eni Cut to Neutral at UBS With Limited Upside to Consensus (+)
* Experian Cut to Underperform at Bernstein on ‘Lofty’ Consensus (+)
* Jefferies Sees Modest Semis Growth in 2025, Infineon Top Pick
* Swatch Downgraded at RBC, Structural Trends Are Unsupportive
* Volvo Raised at Morgan Stanley as 2025 a ‘Rising Tide’ in Trucks