FT : Shares in world’s biggest offshore wind developer tumble as US woes deepen

Shares in world’s biggest offshore wind developer tumble as US woes deepen
Ørsted blames interest rates, supply chains and ‘market uncertainties’ for latest writedown of US business


The world’s largest offshore wind developer has announced fresh writedowns on its US business, sending its shares down sharply as the inauguration of Donald Trump as president clouds the outlook for the renewables sector.  

Ørsted announced impairments totalling DKr12.1bn ($1.7bn) on Monday evening, blaming interest rates, supply chain challenges and “market uncertainties” affecting the value of its seabed leases. 

Ørsted’s Copenhagen-listed shares fell more than 17 per cent as the market opened on Tuesday morning, adding to their decline over the past year.

Monday evening’s announcement was a blow to the Danish group’s efforts to move on from DKr28.4bn of impairments to its US portfolio in 2023. It had also blamed that writedown on rising interest rates and supply chain challenges. 

The fresh writedowns were revealed hours after Trump’s inauguration and his immediate suspension of new offshore wind leasing.

“We’re not going to do the wind thing. Big, ugly wind mills. They ruin your neighbourhood,” he said, according to a Reuters report.

Ørsted’s two offshore US projects in construction, Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, already have the required federal permits.

But Trump’s approach is weighing heavily on the sector. Shares in Vestas, a Danish-listed wind turbine maker, fell more than 4 per cent on Tuesday morning.

In a call with analysts on Tuesday morning, Mads Nipper, Ørsted’s chief executive, said the company was reviewing Trump’s suspension order, but declined to comment further.

On Monday Trump signed an executive order initiating the US’s withdrawal from the Paris climate accord, signed in 2016 as part of a global effort to curb climate change. 

Announcing the impairments on Monday, Nipper said they were “very disappointing”, but the company remained “committed to the US market for the long term”. 

He added: “We continue to navigate the complexities and uncertainties we face in a nascent offshore industry in the new US market.”

Ørsted entered the US in 2018 as a pioneer in its offshore wind industry, but struggled, along with many of its peers, when interest rates rose and supply chains came under strain following the Covid-19 pandemic. 

In November 2023, it said it was abandoning two projects off the coast of New Jersey, spooking shareholders with the DKr28.4bn writedown, which was higher than expected.

In an attempt to turn the business around, the company said last February that it was suspending its dividend, cutting up to 800 jobs, and withdrawing from offshore wind markets in Norway, Spain and Portugal in an attempt to focus on core areas.

In Monday’s announcement, Ørsted said increases in US long-dated interest rates had pushed up its cost of capital, accounting for DKr4.3bn of the DKr12.1bn total impairments. 

It booked another DKr3.5bn because of the “market uncertainties” affecting the value of several seabed leases, while the final DKr4.3bn covered delays to its Sunrise Wind offshore wind project off the coast of New York. This project is now due to be up and running in the second half of 2027.

However, Ørsted said it would stick to its full-year operating profit guidance of DKr24.8bn for 2024. Its wind farms, both on land and at sea, had performed in line with expectations, it said. Revenues in 2023 totalled DKr79.3bn.

Before Tuesday’s fall, Ørsted’s shares had dropped almost 20 per cent over the past 12 months, and are roughly 77 per cent below their peak in January 2021 at the height of interest in environmental stocks.

FT : Panama begins audit of Hong Kong company in nod to Donald Trump

Panama begins audit of Hong Kong company in nod to Donald Trump
US president has said he wants waterway back over alleged Chinese influence

Panama’s government on Monday began an audit of a Hong Kong company that operates ports at either end of its canal, after US President Donald Trump warned he wanted to take back the waterway over alleged Chinese influence.

In his inauguration speech on Monday, Trump repeated criticisms he made in recent weeks about the Panama Canal, which handles about 3 per cent of global seaborne trade each year.

In response, Panama’s Office of the Comptroller General published a video on social media platform X of about 10 men and women in suits filing off a bus into the local offices of Hong Kong-based Hutchison Ports to begin an audit, in a move seen as a nod to Trump.

“Today our auditors arrived at [the company] to start an exhaustive audit aimed at guaranteeing efficient and transparent use of public resources,” the comptroller general’s office said on X.

Hutchison Ports, the ports arm of Hong Kong-listed conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings, operates 53 ports in 24 countries including in the UK, Germany and Hong Kong.

It first won the concessions to operate two ports, one at each end of the canal, in 1997, the year that Hong Kong was returned to Chinese rule by the UK. The concessions were renewed in 2021.

Controlled by the family of Li Ka-shing — one of the richest in Asia — CK Hutchison Holdings also operates a vast global infrastructure portfolio including Northumbrian Water in the UK and the Australian Gas Networks.

China does not control the canal, but some officials in Washington are increasingly concerned about Chinese companies’ presence in the area. Hong Kong’s government has become more closely aligned with China since a crackdown on pro-democracy protests in 2019 and the introduction of tough national security legislation.

CK Hutchison did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Panama’s audit.

The US oversaw the building of the canal, which opened in 1914, but handed full control back to the Central American country in 1999. Trump has called the move a “mistake” and has decried the high fees.

Fees to cross the canal, which uses fresh water to operate its locks, have risen significantly since a major drought in 2023 led to restrictions and later changes in how slots are assigned.

“We have been treated very badly from this foolish gift that should never have been made,” Trump said. “We didn’t give it to China, we gave it to Panama and we’re taking it back.”

Panama has long been one of the closest US allies in Central America and has been trying to halt US-bound migration through its notorious Darién Gap. The country cut ties with Taiwan to recognise China during Trump’s first term in 2017.

Panama’s President José Raúl Mulino — a law and order conservative — on Monday published a strongly worded statement “wholly rejecting” Trump’s words and saying the canal would remain Panamanian.

He added that no nation was interfering with the canal’s administration and that dialogue was the best way to resolve the issues Trump raised. He also disagreed with Trump’s characterisation of the US returning the canal to Panama.

“The canal wasn’t given by anyone, it was the result of a generational fight that culminated in 1999,” he wrote on X.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Frontline PLC (HF6 TH) +3.7%
  • BAE (BSP TH) +1.4%
  • Voestalpine (VAS TH) +1.1%
  • Novo (NOV TH) +1%
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) +1%
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) +0.7%
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.5%
  • Zealand Pharma (22Z TH) -1.2%
  • Stellantis (8TI TH) -1.8%
  • RWE (RWE TH) -1.9%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -2%
    • Watch Europe Energy, Wind Stocks After Trump Freezes Permitting
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -2.1%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) -2.3%
  • Raiffeisen (RAW TH) -2.9%
    • Raiffeisen Books Provision on €2 Billion Russia Court Order (1)
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -3.2%
    • Watch Europe Energy, Wind Stocks After Trump Freezes Permitting
  • SEB (SEBA TH) -3.4%
    • SEB Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 175 kronor
  • Orsted (D2G TH) -9.8%
    • Ørsted announces further writedown on its US offshore wind business

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) -1.4%
    • Watch Europe Energy, Wind Stocks After Trump Freezes Permitting
  • RWE (RWE TH) -1.8%
  • Daimler Truck (DTG TH) -1.8%
MDAX:
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.2%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) -1.8%
  • Schott Pharma AG & Co KGaA (1SXP TH) -4.3%
SDAX:
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +3.4%
    • Kontron Sees 2025 Ebitda at Least EU220M
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) +1.3%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.2%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) +1.1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.6%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) -2.5%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 21st of January 2025

>>> Up
* Legrand Raised to Buy at Redburn; PT 125 euros
* Next Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 10,800 pence
* Pluxee Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 30 euros
* Qorvo Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $106
* Rio Tinto Raised to Hold at SBG Securities; PT 5,500 pence
* SSAB Raised to Hold at Nordea
* Swedbank Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 285 kronor
* Telekom Austria Raised to Accumulate at Erste Group

>>> Down
* AB Foods Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,900 pence
* Anglo American Cut to Hold at SBG Securities; PT 2,800 pence
* Apple Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $200.75
* Apple Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT $200.75
* Fagerhult Group AB Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 60 kronor
* Harley-Davidson Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $33
* Loungers Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 325 pence
* Netcompany Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 365 kroner
* Norske Skog Cut to Hold at DNB Markets; PT 22 kroner
* Norsk Hydro Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 76 kroner
* Pearson Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,300 pence
* QT Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 84 euros
* Rightmove Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT 495 pence
* Sainsbury Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 276 pence
* SEB Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 175 kronor

>>> Initiation
* BT Rated New Underperform at Oddo BHF; PT 118 pence
* Intea Fastigheter Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 50 kronor
* Stendorren Fastigheter Rated New Buy at Arctic Securities
* TSMC ADRs Rated New Buy at Sealand Securities; PT $245.19

>>> Call
* BofA Strategists See FX Tailwinds in European Earnings Season
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Likes US Financials Amid Strong Earnings

>>> What to look at today - 21st of December 2024

Financial markets gave a mixed verdict on US President Donald Trump’s first day in office as traders took heart from an absence of immediate sweeping tariffs on all trade partners, while also expressing caution over likely future measures. Chinese shares led gains in Asia after Trump at least initially opted against announcing any new levies on the country. At the same time, the dollar rose as he said he planned to impose threatened tariffs of as much as 25% on Canadian and Mexican imports as soon as Feb. 1. Treasuries advanced. The limited commentary on trade restrictions so far underscores the risk of higher volatility across financial markets as he kickstarts his second four-year term. The whipsaw trading in Asia came after US stock futures had rallied and the dollar fell Monday when Trump had appeared to be holding off from using executive orders to impose higher global tariffs.   The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso both tumbled as much as 1.4% following Trump’s tariff threats. Bloomberg’s dollar gauge climbed 0.7%. Meanwhile, Treasury 10-year yields fell 9 basis points to 4.54% as traders recalibrated inflation bets in the absence of sweeping levies. Investors had been on tenterhooks for the first executive orders to stem from the White House after Trump vowed to quickly implement his “America First” agenda. Since his November election victory, everything from the Australian dollar to European equities had been whipsawed on concern widespread tariffs would add to global trade frictions, while the dollar surged as the Federal Reserve turned more cautious on easing policy.  The yen was the only Group-of-10 currency to gain versus the dollar, rising to a one-month high, as traders positioned for a possible Bank of Japan interest-rate hike at a policy decision due Friday.  While refraining from imposing new China tariffs, Trump ordered his administration to address unfair trade practices globally and investigate whether Beijing had complied with a deal signed during his first term.  In commodities, oil swung between gains and losses as traders digested a slew of pledges and executive orders from Trump including plans to boost domestic production. Iron ore rallied, while Bitcoin dropped for a fourth day.

Nikkei +0.10% Hang Seng +0.89% CSI +0.06% Shanghai -0.14% Shenzen -0.17%

Eur$ 1.0382 CNH CNY JPY GBP CHF RUB TRY WTI$ Gold BTC ETH

S&P +0.08% Nasdaq -0.05% EuroStoxx -0.39% FTSE -0.13% Dax -0.27% SMI

Macro :
- US Stock Futures Erase Gains After Trump’s Comments on Tariffs
- Trump Thinks He Would Enact Tariffs on Canada, Mexico on Feb. 1
- LA Faces Extreme Fire Risk for Third Week as Winds Return (2)
- Energy, EV, Bank, Prison Stocks May Move as Trump Takes Office
- Europe Car Sales Stagnate as Consumers Shun Electric Vehicles
- Trump Will End Leasing to Massive Wind Farms: White House
- Trump Sued Over Musk ‘DOGE’ Effort by US Government Worker Union
- US Futures Should Benefit From Trump’s Limited Tariff Talk
- Putin Says Russia Is Open to Dialogue on Ukraine With Trump
- French PE Firm Ardian Raises €3.2 Billion Mid-Cap Growth Fund

Keep an eye on :
- ALO FP : Alstom Orders May Indicate Momemtum Is Slowing: Preview
- AAPL US : Apple’s iPhone Sales in China Plunged 18% in Holiday Quarter
- AZA SS : Avanza FY Dividend per Share Beats Estimates
- BPM IM ; Italy Won’t Exercise Veto Power on Banco BPM, Anima Deal
- ABX CN : Barrick Said to Consider Sale of Stake in Chilean Copper Mine
- DOCM SW : DocMorris AG FY Germany Revenue Beats Estimates
- ENSU NO : Ensurge Micropower Offers Up to 50m Shares at NOK1/Share
- G IM : Generali, Natixis Sign Non-Binding Deal for Asset Management JV
- LRE SM : Helios to Carry Out Squeeze-Out of Lar Espana Remaining Shares
- META US : Meta Will Use Fact Checkers Outside the US ‘for Now’
- ORSTED DC : Orsted Takes $1.7 Billion Hit on Mounting Costs of Offshore Wind
- PROB SS : Probi Applies for Delisting, Convenes Extraordinary Meeting
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen to Book 4Q Provision After Russian Court Order
- RNO FP : Renault Beats Stellantis in Final Indignity of Tavares’ Tenure
- STLA IM : Renault Beats Stellantis in Final Indignity of Tavares’ Tenure
- TSLA US :
- 2330 TT : TSMC Plants Resume Operation After Earthquake Spurs Evacuation
- VLA FP : Valneva Reports Positive Phase 3 Data in Chikungunya Vaccine

The Information : Venture Capital’s Latest Strategy: Private Equity–Style Roll-U

Venture Capital’s Latest Strategy: Private Equity–Style Roll-Ups

Venture capital firms have increasingly been acting like private equity firms by investing in or buying mature businesses in need of a turnaround. Now those firms are utilizing another PE strategy—rolling up multiple competitors into a single company that can operate more efficiently by combining costs.

Venture capital firms such as General Catalyst and 8VC are creating or investing in these types of holding companies in fields such as call center support, accounting and property management. In contrast to PE-style roll-ups, the VC firms are starting companies or backing them before their businesses have proven themselves. To keep costs down, they’re incorporating artificial intelligence software to take over work such as responding to tech support requests.

The Takeaway
Venture firms like General Catalyst and 8VC are investing in services-oriented startups in the hopes of combining them with other firms, a roll-up strategy borrowed from private equity that incorporates AI.
For example, General Catalyst, known for venture investments in Canva and Stripe, helped start Long Lake Management and invested in the firm, which was co-founded by early Ramp director Zach Frankel. Long Lake aims to acquire numerous homeowners’ associations—the companies that govern and manage housing communities—and to use AI to automate operations and run them more efficiently, according to people with direct knowledge of the company. There are hundreds of thousands of HOAs across the country, according to the Foundation for Community Association Research.

8VC, known for early bets on Flexport and Anduril, in July led a $50 million round in Loop, which handles payments and financial audits for logistics businesses, Loop co-founder Matt McKinney said.

Loop is building its own AI agents by fine-tuning models and analyzing data to help payment providers manage transportation and budgets and offer automated customer support. The company has acquired a freight payment provider and is in the process of purchasing another. McKinney, who declined to name the target, estimates there are about 250 freight payment providers in the U.S., serving a market of about $15 billion.

Several years ago, McKinney said, “I would have been laughed out of the room if I pitched VCs on the strategy” to buy old payment providers. Since then, he added, the strategy has become “the hottest thing in Silicon Valley.”

That might be an overstatement, but there are signs of the trend in many corners of the industry. Last spring, Thrive Capital and Bessemer Venture Partners invested in a Tampa, Fla.–based accounting firm, Crete Professionals Alliance. Crete has said it will invest in other accounting businesses and then use its technology to help run those firms.

WndrCo, a venture firm and holding company co-founded by Hollywood studio veteran Jeffrey Katzenberg, in 2023 invested in 22-year-old call center GlowTouch. Last year, WndrCo’s investment helped the Louisville, Ky.–based firm buy a 3,000-person, 20-year-old call center.

GlowTouch, now rebranded to UnifyCX, is in the process of acquiring another call center and plans to buy others to combine them, according to CEO and founder Vidya Ravichandran. After buying the companies, it then incorporates AI to screen résumés for recruiting, automate support tickets and speed up employee training and quality assurance checks, said Ravichandran.

“Ninety-nine percent of the companies out there in space have really not even thought about [AI],” she said.

And last year, Accel partner Peter Doyle left the storied VC firm after nine years to start Treeline, a startup focused on automating IT services. Treeline plans to acquire other IT businesses. The startup has been in fundraising talks with investors including Andreessen Horowitz, according to people close to the business.

The strategy is a shift from traditional venture bets in more ways than one. Venture investors have typically backed high-margin software or consumer internet businesses they hope will go public someday. In pursuing services firms, they are writing checks for lower-margin businesses that are unlikely to yield the same high investment returns from going public as software companies. But returns are more guaranteed.

“You have to buy the accounting firm,” which can be more expensive than giving a founder a seed investment check of $1 million or $2 million, said ChenLi Wang, a general partner at WndrCo. “But if it doesn’t work, at the end of the day you still have an accounting firm,” whereas software businesses that don’t achieve a high enough scale usually have to shut down entirely.

ChenLi said his firm’s roll-up investment strategy was inspired by Berkshire Hathaway and Constellation Software, which operate portfolios of businesses they’ve bought.

Some founders of services firms are skeptical about whether this strategy will work. Will Champagne, the founder of a recruiting firm, said a venture capitalist approached him a few months ago, expressing an interest in buying his practice. He turned the offer down because he felt the investor did not understand the intricacies of the business, which rely on personal relationships and “human nuance,” he said.

“We respect our candidates far too much to let AI handle tasks like screening calls or deciding whether someone should move forward in the process,” he said.

Venture investors are convinced they can overcome these challenges, in part by hiring staff and raising funds to focus on buyouts. General Catalyst raised a $1.5 billion fund in October to establish and incubate startups, which includes funding buyouts of young services businesses. The firm has completed or is working on a dozen roll-ups in legal, accounting, software bug testing and other services fields, according to a person close to the firm.

One is Crescendo, a call center company it created in January 2024. In October, it invested in the call center company at a $500 million valuation. That same month, Crescendo said it acquired PartnerHero, a customer service company.

Ultimately, General Catalyst aims to take 30% to 45% stakes in startups that could act like holding companies for specific sectors—higher than the 10% to 20% stakes venture investors usually get from startup investments, but still minority ownership, said the same person.

8VC has invested in roughly a dozen AI services startups evaluating buying legacy services businesses as a main way they’ll grow, said Drew Oetting, a founding partner at the firm. Such acquisitions should help enterprise software companies stand apart because they’ll immediately be able to sell their software to more customers.

One risk in the strategy is that acquiring a business that ends up floundering is more expensive than trying to grow through marketing or sales, he said.

“Mistakes become very expensive, much more expensive than [venture capitalists] are used to,” he said.

FT : Weight-loss drugs reduce risk of Alzheimer’s, large study shows

Weight-loss drugs reduce risk of Alzheimer’s, large study shows
Analysis of drugs such as Ozempic finds a lower health risk for 42 conditions but a higher rate of disorders such as arthritis

Patients who took popular weight loss drugs were 12 per cent less likely to develop Alzheimer’s disease but were more at risk of arthritic, kidney and pancreatic disorders, according to the largest ever study of the medicines’ widening impact.

A cohort of 215,000 US military veterans with diabetes who used so-called GLP-1 treatments showed lower health risk for 42 condition and a higher risk for 19 others, compared with those who took older medicines.

The analysis of 2.4mn patients bolsters research into how blockbuster drugs for obesity and diabetes such as Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Wegovy and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro could have significant effects on other health conditions.

The findings of the six-year study, which used health data from the US veterans affairs department, were published on Monday in Nature Medicine.

Researchers at Washington University in St Louis compared 175 health outcomes in people treated with GLP-1 with those who took other diabetes drugs. Ziyad Al-Aly, the study leader, said they were inspired by the new drugs’ “skyrocketing popularity”, with one in eight Americans reported to have taken them.

“It is important to systematically examine their effects on all body systems . . . to understand what they do,” he said.

The researchers found widespread benefits for cognitive and behavioural health including a lower risk of developing Alzheimer’s, which has become a big focus of GLP-1 research in clinical trials.

“The 12 per cent reduction we found may seem like a weak effect but it is teaching us about the biology of Alzheimer’s disease,” Al-Aly said. GLP-1s could enhance the effect of treatments that target the build-up of toxic amyloid protein in the brain, he added.

Sir Stephen O’Rahilly, a professor of clinical biochemistry at Cambridge university who was not involved in the study, said the results had to be interpreted cautiously, as the data was based on observations rather than a clinical trial and was “heavily skewed to older white males.”

But he added that “the study provides useful reassurance about the safety of this class of drugs”.


GLP-1 drugs work in two ways. One is indirect — reducing the effects of diabetes and obesity. The other is direct enhancement of the activity of glucagon-like peptide 1, a hormone that works on cells throughout the body and plays several biological roles beyond regulating blood sugar levels.

“What stood out for me in our results is the consistent effect on curbing addiction disorders,” said Al-Aly. “There is a school of thought that obesity is the result of food addiction.”

Altogether the GLP-1 group did better on 42 health outcomes, ranging from cardiovascular disease to bacterial infections. Most of the benefits were relatively modest, with risk reductions in the 10-20 per cent range.

“However the modest effect does not negate the potential value of these drugs, especially where few effective treatment options exist,” said Al-Aly.

On the downside, GLP-1s made 19 disorders more likely. A surprising finding was an 11 per cent increase in the risk of arthritis, even though loss of excessive weight might be expected to reduce joint pain and swelling.

But the most significant adverse effects identified by the study were on the pancreas and kidneys.

Extensive research is required before GLP-1 drugs could be widely prescribed to people who are not suffering from diabetes and obesity, Al-Aly said: “Our findings underscore the possibility for wider applications but also highlight important risks that should be carefully monitored.”

Novo Nordisk said it “welcomes independent research investigating the safety, efficacy and clinical utility of our products”, adding that research so far had shown a “reassuring safety profile” for semaglutide, the active ingredient in its Ozempic diabetes and Wegovy weight-loss treatments.

US prices for Ozempic and Wegovy could be heavily cut after President Joe Biden’s outgoing administration included them in the next round of Medicare negotiations.

TechCrunch : OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

OpenAI may be close to releasing an AI tool that can take control of your PC and perform actions on your behalf.

Tibor Blaho, a software engineer with a reputation for accurately leaking upcoming AI products, claims to have uncovered evidence of OpenAI’s long-rumored Operator tool. Publications including Bloomberg have previously reported on Operator, which is said to be an “agentic” system capable of autonomously handling tasks like writing code and booking travel.

According to The Information, OpenAI is targeting January as Operator’s release month. Code uncovered by Blaho this weekend adds credence to that reporting.

OpenAI’s ChatGPT client for macOS has gained options, hidden for now, to define shortcuts to “Toggle Operator” and “Force Quit Operator,” per Blaho. And OpenAI has added references to Operator on its website, Blaho said — albeit references that aren’t yet publicly visible.

OpenAI website already has references to Operator/OpenAI CUA (Computer Use Agent) – “Operator System Card Table”, “Operator Research Eval Table” and “Operator Refusal Rate Table”

Including comparison to Claude 3.5 Sonnet Computer use, Google Mariner, etc.

(preview of tables… pic.twitter.com/OOBgC3ddkU

— Tibor Blaho (@btibor91) January 20, 2025

According to Blaho, OpenAI’s site also contains not-yet-public tables comparing the performance of Operator to other computer-using AI systems. The tables may well be placeholders. But if the numbers are accurate, they suggest that Operator isn’t 100% reliable, depending on the task.

OpenAI website already has references to Operator/OpenAI CUA (Computer Use Agent) – “Operator System Card Table”, “Operator Research Eval Table” and “Operator Refusal Rate Table”

Including comparison to Claude 3.5 Sonnet Computer use, Google Mariner, etc.

(preview of tables… pic.twitter.com/OOBgC3ddkU

— Tibor Blaho (@btibor91) January 20, 2025

On OSWorld, a benchmark that tries to mimic a real computer environment, “OpenAI Computer Use Agent (CUA)” — possibly the AI model powering Operator — scores 38.1%, ahead of Anthropic’s computer-controlling model but well short of the 72.4% humans score. OpenAI CUA surpases human performance on WebVoyager, which evaluates an AI’s ability to navigate and interact with websites. But the model falls short of human-level scores on another web-based benchmark, WebArena, according to the leaked benchmarks.

Operator also struggles with tasks a human could perform easily, if the leak is to be believed. In a test that tasked Operator with signing up with a cloud provider and launching a virtual machine, Operator was only successful 60% of the time. Tasked with creating a Bitcoin wallet, Operator succeeded only 10% of the time.

OpenAI’s imminent entry into the AI agent space comes as rivals including the aforementioned Anthropic, Google, and others make plays for the nascent segment. AI agents may be risky and speculative, but tech giants are already touting them as the next big thing in AI. According to analytics firm Markets and Markets, the market for AI agents could be worth $47.1 billion by 2030.

Agents today are rather primitive. But some experts have raised concerns about their safety, should the technology rapidly improve.

One of the leaked charts shows Operator performing well on selected safety evaluations, including tests that try to get the system to perform “illicit activities” and search for “sensitive personal data.” Reportedly, safety testing is among the reasons for Operator’s long development cycle. In a recent X post, OpenAI co-founder Wojciech Zaremba criticized Anthropic for releasing an agent he claims lacks safety mitigations.

“I can only imagine the negative reactions if OpenAI made a similar release,” Zaremba wrote.

It’s worth noting that OpenAI has been criticized by AI researchers, including ex-staff, for allegedly de-emphasizing safety work in favor of quickly productizing its technology.

FT : Trump-backed crypto venture to extend token sales after raising $1bn

Trump-backed crypto venture to extend token sales after raising $1bn
Entrepreneur Justin Sun among investors buying into World Liberty Financial

The digital assets venture promoted by Donald Trump has hit a target of raising $1bn through token sales and has offered more to the public, as it capitalises on enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies backed by the incoming US president.

World Liberty Financial, a project backed by Trump and his three sons, said on Monday it had sold 21bn tokens, surpassing its aim at launch in October to sell 20bn, or $1bn worth.

WLF, which was set up in the run-up to the election by Trump’s longtime business partners and others, added that it would also make available a further 5bn tokens of the 100bn total supply “due to massive demand and overwhelming interest”.

The surge in demand for WLF tokens marks a sharp contrast to the patchy sales it experienced in the opening months since launch, and comes as the Trump family has stepped up its foray into cryptocurrencies ahead of his swearing-in ceremony.

Over the weekend both Donald Trump and his wife Melania launched memecoins, which soared in value, while Eric Trump, an enthusiastic promoter of WLF, attended a crypto industry gala event in Washington to celebrate his father’s inauguration.

Trump eagerly courted the crypto industry on the election trail and executives have in turn warmed to him, believing that he will end the regulatory crackdown they faced under the Biden administration.

WLF has yet to lay out its plans. The coins give holders only limited voting rights and no economic rights, and cannot be traded or sold back to WLF.

Justin Sun, the crypto entrepreneur who bought and ate a $6mn banana artwork in November, said last week he had invested a further $45mn into WLF. The purchase by Sun, who is being sued by the US securities regulator for fraud and other securities law violations, took his total investment to $75mn.

Trump has already appointed several crypto-friendly names to top jobs, including Paul Atkins as head of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and venture capitalist David Sacks in the new role of AI and crypto tsar.

In return, crypto companies and billionaires have provided financial backing to Trump, with stablecoin operator Circle and blockchain payments group Ripple among the companies that have paid into the inauguration committee. Bitcoin briefly notched up a new record high of more than $109,000 on Monday, before dropping back, on expectations that Trump will issue executive orders in coming days that will boost the fortunes of the industry in the US.

However, many of the crypto market’s biggest names are concerned that Trump’s move into digital assets could be seen as seeking to extract value from supporters. The company that co-owns the Trump memecoin is affiliated with the Trump Organization, and will receive a share of trading revenues related to the token.

“Basically, we used to have an informal rule that presidents wouldn’t start or run businesses that could pose a conflict of interest,” said Nic Carter, a venture capitalist at Castle Island Ventures, on X.

The Donald Trump memecoin fell to $52 on Monday, down from the weekend high of $75. The Melania Trump memecoin, whose launch caused the Donald coin to briefly drop 40 per cent in value, was at $8.43, compared with Sunday’s high of $13.64.

Memecoins have no business model, cash flow or fundamental value, and do not give their owners a share of any physical asset, and rely on their popularity among traders for their value.

“A new chaotic crypto era is here,” Bernstein analysts wrote in a note, adding that Trump’s memecoin launch “is a massive paradigm shift” that “signifies a new regulatory era, where governments see crypto as a technology to reach out to the masses directly”.