I know that for the last few days many people where making paralleles between wht happened in July 2011 and the situation now...I even sent an article from the barron's 2 days ago explaining why the situation was different ({http://on.barrons.com/19BQutQ})...but I still think there is smthg in the timing and in what's happening that can drive us to the same move...means 10% lower from here...
have a look
Laurent
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BN 10/10 09:44 *KABEL DEUTSCHLAND CEO VON HAMMERSTEIN COMMENTS AT MUNICH AGM
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*KABEL DEUTSCHLAND CEO SEES VODAFONE DEAL CLOSING OCTOBER 14 2013-10-10 09:44:05.374 GMT
--ALEXANDER WEBB
-0- Oct/10/2013 09:44 GMT
Deutsche Bank and HSBC reiterated outperform, are European IBs liked best, ahead of UBS and Barclays which are reiterated neutral, Credit Suisse says in note today. RBS is fifth in list of IB favorites.• European banks’ fixed income, currency and commodities revenue seen falling avg 31% Y/y, down 19% Q/q - FICC weakness well-flagged, issue is whether 3Q is one-off on concern over Fed tapering, or if U.S. political tensions will affect 4Q - Sees Barclays FICC revenue falling most, down 27% Q/q and 40% Y/y * Leverage ratio to remain focus, says CRD IV ratio of 4% seen as counterpart to CET1 ratio of 10%; UBS, Barclays and Deutsche Bank have work to do - Deutsche Bank, Barclays may reach capital requirements directive IV leverage ratio of 4% by 2015 - Deutsche Bank’s 3Q is opportunity for management to update on leverage ratio, extent of balance-sheet reduction * Don’t see large improvement, given lack of news so far, small improvement would be well-received - Barclays to face more ring-fencing pressure - UBS CET1 should have improved, leverage ratio should get more attention given gap to 3% minimum * Key to HSBC earnings will be giving investors more confidence on earnings estimates, more detail on capital return: CS * NOTE: SX7P up 16% YTD vs DBK up 4.7%, HSBC up 4.6%, BARC up 13%; UBS up 29% and RBS up 17%
*MEDA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE *GLAXOSMITHKLINE CUT TO UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE *SHIRE PHARMACEUTICALS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE *IPSEN RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
SSE outlines energy price rises
SSE on Thursday became the first of the big six UK power suppliers to announce gas and electricity price rises ahead of the winter, stoking the political row over living costs. SSE said bills will rise by an average of 8.2 per cent from November 15, affecting 4.4m electricity customers and 2.9m gas customers.
Rising wholesale energy prices, delivery costs and government levies meant its retail operations would be lossmaking to the six months to the end of September, the company said, adding that “85 per cent of a typical energy bill is made up of costs outside our direct control”. Ed Miliband who last month promised last month to freeze energy prices for 20 months if his party wins the 2015 election, tweeted that the price rises “show the need to freeze bills”. The Labour leader said: “We need an energy market which works for ordinary families and businesses,” SSE, which last increased prices in October 2012, said the price rise would equate to about an extra £2 per week for a typical dual fuel customer and promised not to raise prices again before autumn 2014. Will Morris, group managing director for retail operations, partly blamed the government for the price rise and said he was “sorry we have to do this”. “Politicians could protect customers by transferring the costs arising from the environmental and social policies pursued by all main parties in government from the energy bill payer to the taxpayer,” he said in a statement. “This would immediately take up to £4bn off UK energy bills and £8bn a year by 2020 – cutting a typical dual fuel bill by around £110 this year alone and redistributing the costs to those more able to afford it. “We’ve done as much as we could to keep prices down, but the reality is that buying wholesale energy in global markets, delivering it to customers’ homes, and government-imposed levies collected through bills – endorsed by all the major parties – all cost more than they did last year,” said Mr Morris. He urged customers to improve their energy efficiency and said there was financial support for customers who needed it. Ofgem fined SSE in April £10.5m for “prolonged and extensive” mis-selling of its power contracts, The regulator found that sales staff had used misleading scripts to encourage people to switch their accounts to the company. Michael Fallon, energy minister, told Sky News he was disappointed with the announcement and urged customers to examine whether they could switch to a cheaper tariff. SSE said it believed it was “fair” for the annual profit in its energy supply business to average about 5 per cent over three to five years – arguing that major food retailers made similar margins. It said that the profit was 4.2 per cent in 2012-13 and would be less than 5 per cent in 2013-14. The impact of Mr Miliband’s pledge on the London-listed energy groups was dramatic. SSE and fellow utility Centrica lost a combined £2.7bn in market value in two days after the announcement.
Periphery hits Flow Watch peak: what's next?
* Net buying in European equities: US investors re-enter at fastest rate since 08 In Europe we saw net buying in equities for 2nd month running. Our Global Equity Strategy team flag that Europe-ex UK saw the greatest inflows of any region over the past month. Additionally, data from the US Treasury shows US investors moving back into Europe at the fastest rate since the start of the financial crisis. We think this will continue as still depressed European earnings start to climb back and uncover hidden value within. Please see: "Can European profits return to 2007 peak?", 2nd September 2013.
* Ready for a change in focus from Crisis to Cycle - as periphery hits all-time peak This month we saw the biggest flows out of safe havens like Switzerland and all time record flows into the periphery (figure 2). This is an expected post-crisis reversal trade, and other than a pause, it may run further. But we also saw money return to the Eurozone core. As the focus moves from 'horrible' crisis (safe havens) to crisis reversal (periphery) we think the next stop is back to the cycle. Germany and France are more cyclical and domestic than Switzerland, UK and Spain.
* Sector crisis reversal: biggest inflows into Financials, Domestics & Cyclicals Insurance saw the most inflows since February 2009 and Utilities saw the most net buying in over 5 years (since June 08) and it wasn’t just the periphery. The more cyclical German stocks RWE and E.ON (up 21% and 10% over the month) beat the UK crisis safe havens, SSE and Centrica (down 6% and 4%). They shunned the international consumer defensives, not only are they still expensive, but Unilever's warnings about EM slowdown and FX worries put added pressure on the 'crisis haven' staples.
* Are we too pumped up? Hedge fund net leverage back to peak level Net leverage is well above 2007 levels and has hit a peak only seen twice since 2007 (November 2009 and May 2010). Are we gearing up for a big recovery and more 'normality' or about to be disappointed? CREDIT VS EQUITY: we continue the YTD trend and flows into equities were more than double those into credit.
Eurocommissioner Neelie Kroes says there is a lot of discussions going on in Netherlands on whether KPN should be turned into hands of Carlos Slim’s America Movil. • “If that is a decent company why whould you block such a deal if that’s going to help create a stronger company?”: EC’s Kroes • KPN shrs reverse losses, +0.6% • Kroes spoke at event in Madrid
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Vodafone Rejected $95bn for Verizon Stake And Suggested Merger 2013-10-09 19:08:24.820 GMT
James Titcomb Oct. 9 (Telegraph) -- Vodafone rejected a $95bn (£60bn) offer from US giant Verizon for the British company’s stake in their joint venture Verizon Wireless, eight months before selling it for $130bn. Vittorio Colao was hailed for pulling off the deal of the year when he sold his company’s 45pc stake in Verizon Wireless for $130bn, but only now has the full extent of the Vodafone chief’s brinkmanship emerged. A stock market filing from Verizon disclosed on Wednesday that in January, eight months before the deal was reached, Mr Colao had rejected a $95bn (£60bn) offer, and countered with the suggestion that the two companies merge. The filing, a notice of a shareholder meeting to approve Verizon’s $130bn purchase of Vodafone’s stake in the mobile network, shed light on a series of meetings around the world over two years that eventually led to the deal’s announcement in August. Mr Colao and Vodafone chairman Gerard Kleisterlee met Verizon bosses, including chief executive Lowell McAdam, in London on January 24 and 25, when they deemed that $95bn “represented inadequate consideration” for Vodafone’s stake, the filing detailed. “At these meetings and on other occasions, Mr Colao also suggested that Verizon consider a possible merger of Verizon and Vodafone,” it added. The two parties continued to haggle, with Verizon gradually pushing its offer up to $120bn until Mr McAdam made a “best and final” $130bn bid at a meeting in San Francisco on July 31. The deal was announced on September 2. Despite the repeated suggestions from Mr Colao, Verizon was understood to have been wary of a merger, due to its concerns about being exposed to the European telecoms market. Rumours of Verizon planning a takeover of Vodafone in April forced the US company to deny the speculation. The final deal, which put an end to the highly- lucrative, if tense, partnership between the two companies, is the world’s largest by value for 13 years. It is due to be completed early next year, pending shareholder approval. Verizon’s bankers JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley will each receive $129m, the filing revealed. The US company will also add a secondary listing in London as it gains tens of thousands of new British shareholders. The majority of Vodafone’s £54bn shareholder return stemming from the deal will be in Verizon stock.
-0- Oct/09/2013 19:08 GMT
Up
*ASHTEAD RAISED TO ADD VS HOLD AT NUMIS *ARKEMA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS *AXA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE *BASHNEFT RAISEDTO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN *ENQUEST RAISED TO 'OVERWEIGHT' AT HSBC *GULF KEYSTONE RAISED TO 'NEUTRAL' AT HSBC *PROSIEBENSAT.1 RAISED TO 'OVERWEIGHT' AT HSBC *GAZPROM NEFT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
Down
*GAZPROM NEFT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *GRIFOLS CUT TO REDUCE VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX *ROSNEFT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN *SURGUTNG CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
PT Changes
*TOD'S PT RAISED TO EU105 VS EU87 AT DEUTSCHE BANK; KEPT AT HOLD
Initiations
*C&C GROUP RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS; PT EU4 *FIRST QUANTUM RATED NEW BUY AT GOLDMAN ON TORONTO LISTING
Country Sector Stock Calls
*BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO NAMED A MOST PREFERRED STOCK AT CITI *SWEDISH MATCH NAMED A LEAST PREFERRED STOCK AT CITI
US Market closed slightly positive helped by Yellen nomination (unable to regain its 100d MA)...Dow 200d MA was a support for the market...Nasdaq Underperform heavily because of Biotech perf...FED Minutes were not a surprised...main point is that FOMC participants expected some tapering this year...VIX @ 19.6 (-3.6%)...Brazil +0,45% (rate raises by 50bps to 9,5%)...- Japan machine orders at 3-month high as govt raises assessment on the sector; 30-yr JGB auction seeing fairly strong demand... Nikkei +1%...Shanghai -1%...more concerns over shadow banking
Eur$ 1,3498...S&P Fut +0,45%...
Keep an eye on :
- AZA IM : Italy May Provide EU150m in Alitalia Cap Increase, Union Says - EAD FP : Japan Airlines 787 Returned to Moscow After Electrical Problem, Exec: Order book for the A330F units at 43; confident of new orders by end of the year - GIVN VX : Givaudan 3Q Sales Miss Estimates, Confirms Mid-Term Outlook - GLE FP : CEO: Europe is much better than a year ago; not need to raise more capital - CNBC - KD8 GY : Kabel Deutschland Sees FY Rev. Growth 5%-6%, Had Seen Abt. 8% - LAD LN : speculation that Playtech's founder Teddy Sagi acquired a close to 3% stake - MB IM : Fondiaria, Units Sell Mediobanca Shrs for EU135.2m (23.1m shares, 2,68%) - NOK1V FH : Finnish Retail Investors Sell Nokia Shares, Kauppalehti Reports - RMG LN : Royal Mail Shares to Be Priced at 330p, Top of Range: BBC Link - RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Motor Expects Asia Market Share to Grow Further: CEO - SZU GY : Suedzucker Reiterates Outlook, Reiterates Sees Risk From Ensus - TIT IM : Telecom Italia Says No Process Ongoing to Sell Tim Participacoes - Versace : KKR, Blackstone Said to Consider 20% Stake in Versace, WSJ Says