(GS) European Utilities

* Earnings to 2017: A2A to CL-Sell; GDF SUEZ off CL, remains Buy

We see 8% EPS 2013-17 CAGR for the sector, with a broad range We expect an average 8% EPS CAGR for the sector in 2013-17, with a broad range between stocks – up as much as c.20%-40% for Drax, PPC, Veolia, Shanks, Verbund and Centrica, but negative for EDP, Tauron and PGE. We see higher power prices and capex as the main drivers of the sector’s earnings growth.

Rating/CL changes: Centrica to Buy, A2A added to CL-Sell; Tauron down to Sell, and PPC down to Neutral; GDF off CL-Buy Mainly as result of recent share price moves, we make several rating changes. We upgrade Centrica to Buy from Neutral as we believe the valuation overly discounts the risk of a tariff freeze. We downgrade Tauron to Sell as we believe the prospective earnings decline is not reflected in the share price (7% P/E sector-relative premium 2014E). We downgrade PPC to Neutral from Buy post share price outperformance. We add A2A (Sell) to the Conviction List, while we remove GDF Suez from the Conviction List (remains Buy) following recent outperformance. We update our forecasts across our coverage to reflect higher capex medium term and other stock specific changes. The average change to our EPS for each year through 2013E-17E is 0%-3% and our 12m price targets change by -7% to +6%.

A2A onto CL-Sell, 12m price target €0.67, 22% downside We see 17%-20% downside to consensus 2014-15 EPS due to lower profits from power generation, gas supply, networks and waste. Based on the weak earnings outlook and low dividend yields, we expect the 17%-32% sector-relative P/E premium in 2014-15 to reduce; we add A2A to the Conviction Sell List, with a 12-month PT of €0.67, implying 22% downside.

CL comprises three Buys (E.ON, REE, Drax) and two Sells (EDP, A2A) E.ON offers short-term mean reversion coupled with a material mediumterm market recovery. REE continues to trade at a c.20% discount to regulated peers; we expect this discount to close with further regulatory clarity in Spain by year-end. In our view, Drax’s plan to convert at least half of its coal-fired generation capacity to biomass burn is not fully reflected in its share price relative to the sector. On EDP, beyond 15% 2014E EPS downside risk to consensus, we see risk from further government intervention in Portugal and a potential dividend cut.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down

In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CWTR -32.5% (to explore strategic alternatives including sale of the company; confirmed negative comparable retail sales trend identified in the Q2 has accelerated; sees Q3 EPS below prior guidance range (equates to below consensus), TDC -15.7%, STLY -7%, (light volume), JRJC -5.5%, (thinly traded), FLIR -3.8%, DPZ -2.5%, C -1.4%.

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLV -2.8%, SLW -1.8%, ABX -1.7%, GG -1.6%, GOLD -1.5%, AUY -1.4%, GLD -1.2%, GFI -1.1%.

A few India related names showing early weakness: HDB -2.8%, IBN -2.0%, TTM -1.8%.

Other news: SVNT -83.1% (commences voluntary Chapter 11 precedings; seeks to conduct auction and sale under Section 262), MCP -16.9% (disclosed would need additional capital to complete the modernization and expansion efforts; co is anticipating significantly lower than expected revenue and cash flow have therefore determined that it would be prudent to raise additional financing; intends to offer and sell, subject to market and other conditions, up to $200,000,000 of its common stock), CZR -16.5% ( disclosed it entered into a first lien credit agreement governing its new $2.769 bln senior secured credit facilities), BGC -10.8% (still checking), ALTI -6.1% (may be attributed to cautious blog mention), RSO -5% (plans to offer, subject to market and other conditions, $100.0 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2018 in an underwritten public offering), ALU -2.6% (still checking), SI -1.9% (plans to sell water technologies unit to PE firm for $800 mln, according to reports ), TEVA -0.9% (still checking).

Analyst comments: VECO -3% (ticking lower, downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), NSM -1.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo),AAP -0.4% (initiated with an Underperform at Wedbush), RIG 0% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus)

>>> Molycorp shares trading lower by 10% in pre-market trade

Molycorp shares trading lower by 10% in pre-market trade; co disclosed would need additional capital to complete the modernization and expansion efforts; co is anticipating significantly lower than expected revenue and cash flow have therefore determined that it would be prudent to raise additional financing

Co disclosed the following: •'In January 2013, we determined that we would need additional capital to complete the modernization and expansion efforts and certain other capital projects at our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility, to fund our operations and to fund our working capital needs, and we raised an aggregate of ~$414 mln of net proceeds from a common stock offering and a convertible notes offering. We believed, based on the assumptions set forth in the prospectus supplements for such offerings, that the proceeds of such offerings would, together with anticipated cash flows from operations and potential proceeds from equipment and revolver financings, be sufficient to fund such operating and capital expenditure needs. Subsequent to January 2013, a number of developments have occurred that have reduced our cash cushion to a level below what we view as sufficient to ensure we will have no substantial concern about our ability to finance ourselves and led us to seek to raise additional financing: The ramp-up has taken longer than expected, which has led to lower than expected production volumes, revenues and cash flows during the first nine months of 2013, and delayed our realization of the benefits of our vertical integration strategy while our other operations continued to purchase raw materials from third parties rather than accepting delivery of products from our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility. •'Production volumes of REO in the first, second and third quarter of 2013 totaled 606 mt, 756 mt and an estimated 1,139 mt at our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility, respectively. While we believe that our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility is capable of producing 19,050 mt of REO per year, to date, we have demonstrated an annualized production rate of 15,000 mt of REO over brief periods of time, but have not been able to sustain such production rates over prolonged periods of time as we work to optimize our production and operations and remedy mechanical problems that we identify during operations.' •'We are currently producing at an annualized production rate of ~10,600 mt of REO, as we continue to work on optimizing production. We are currently targeting to gradually increase our production capacity during 2014 to an annualized production rate of REO (including LREC) of ~23,000 mt during the fourth quarter of 2014, although actual production during the first half of the year is expected to be below the design capacity of 19,050 mt on an annualized basis but more than the demonstrated annualized production rate of 15,000 mt of REO (including LREC). •On October 14, 2013, we entered into an agreement with Molibdenos y Metales S.A., or Molymet, pursuant to which Molymet agreed that, at our request during the term of the agreement, Molymet would purchase $50 mln of our common stock. However, if our proposed offering of common stock is successful, we currently expect that we would not request Molymet to purchase our common stock pursuant to such agreement. As of September 30, 2013, we had ~$160 mln of cash and we estimated that we will need to spend ~$50 to $70 mln in cash to fund remaining capital expenditures at our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility, as well as $5 to $8 mln on other maintenance and expansion capital expenditures in the remainder of 2013 across all operating segments and $70 mln in 2014 for our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility, including $30 mln of maintenance capital (excluding ~$80 mln of discretionary capital expenditures) and $20 mln for capital needs across our other operating segments. •Given the current pricing environment of REEs and the other factors set forth above, we are anticipating significantly lower than expected revenue and cash flow have therefore determined that it would be prudent to raise additional financing to ensure we have adequate funding for our needs, including the capital needs outlined above, debt service and other working capital needs. Our budget reflects an assumption that will be able to sell a substantial portion of our cerium beginning in the first quarter of 2014 once our current SorbXTM testing for various uses is completed and as we qualify our cerium for use in other products. However, we continue to expect that we will be unable to sell a substantial portion of our cerium production during 2014. Accordingly, our margins, EBITDA and 2 cash flow will be negatively impacted until our sales of cerium products manufactured at our Molycorp Mountain Pass facility increase.

• Note: Related Rare Earth names include: REE, MCP, SHZ, AVL, GSM

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GTN +2.9% (light volume), JNJ +1.6%, PKG +1.3%, OMC +1.3%, KO +1%.

M&A news: TUC +5.8% (CSC ServiceWorks to Acquire Mac-Gray for $524 Million or $21.25/share).

Select mining stocks trading higher: RIO +2.4% (provides Q3 production results; global iron ore shipments +4% YoY), MT +2.2%, BHP +0.4%, BBL +0.4%.

A few solar names are trading higher on light volume: YGE +2.8%, JKS +2.5%, CSIQ +2.1%

Other news: NVGN +17.2% (may be attributed to positive blog mention),XNPT +16.7% (Clinton Group Calls on Xenoport to hire a new CEO and focus on promising drug in its Pipeline),LTBR +8.9% (B&W and Lightbridge to collaborate on metallic nuclear fuel pilot fabrication facility), CIM +4.4% (following Cooperman comments on CNBC),SD +3.4% (following Cooperman comments on CNBC),FU +2.9% (continued strength),MU +2.3% (still checking),GERN +2.3% (has been informed by Dr. Tefferi that his abstract on preliminary data from the ongoing Myelofibrosis IST has been selected by the ASH Program Committee for presentatio),S +1.7% (following Cooperman comments on CNBC),YHOO +1.5% (still checking),NOK +1.2% (still checking),TZOO +0.8% ( enters into multi-state unclaimed property settlement; co expects to record an estimated $22.0 mln charge, which will be included in its financial earnings release for the three months ended Sept 30, 2013),NFLX +0.7% (AllThingsD discusses that Vodafone is offering free Netflix subscriptions with purchase of Nokia phones; also Pac Crest comments- Q3 should be solid, but aggressive assumptions needed to justify upside in NFLX ),AMZN +0.4% (WSJ details news that Amazon (AMZN) plans to setup warehouses inside Procter & Gamble facilities and other cos),T +0.3% (U.S. Army Awards AT&T Government Solutions Place on $4.1 Billion).

Analyst comments: TSLA +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush ),MYCC +2% (initiated by several analysts),FEYE +1.1% (initiated by several analysts),FUEL +1% (initiated by several analysts), MSFT +1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies),FB +0.8% (tgt raised to $60 from $45 at Evercore),QCOM +0.4% ( initiated with a Buy at Stifel)