>>> US Earning this week - JPM, WFC, BAC, GS, C, SCHW, BLK, COF, AX

Company Name Company Ticker Date Date Type Time Type Period
JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM US 14/01/2014 C 13:00 ER Q4 2013
Wells Fargo & Co WFC US 14/01/2014 C 14:00 ER Q4 2013
Bank of America Corp BAC US 15/01/2014 C 13:00 ER Q4 2013
Fastenal Co FAST US 15/01/2014 C 13:00 ER Q4 2013
CSX Corp CSX US 15/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP KMP US 15/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
Kinder Morgan Inc/DE KMI US 15/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
Charles Schwab Corp/The SCHW US 16/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
BB&T Corp BBT US 16/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
UnitedHealth Group Inc UNH US 16/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
Huntington Bancshares Inc/OH HBAN US 16/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
BlackRock Inc BLK US 16/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
Goldman Sachs Group Inc/The GS US 16/01/2014 C 13:30 ER Q4 2013
Citigroup Inc C US 16/01/2014 C 14:00 ER Q4 2013
Capital One Financial Corp COF US 16/01/2014 C 22:05 ER Q4 2013
American Express Co AXP US 16/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
Intel Corp INTC US 16/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
Skyworks Solutions Inc SWKS US 16/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q1 2014
SLM Corp SLM US 16/01/2014 C Aft-mkt ER Q4 2013
American Airlines Group Inc AAL US 16/01/2014 E ER Q4 2013
PNC Financial Services Group Inc/The PNC US 16/01/2014 C ER Q4 2013
Wendy's Co/The WEN US 16/01/2014 E ER Q4 2013
M&T Bank Corp MTB US 16/01/2014 E ER Q4 2013
General Electric Co GE US 17/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
SunTrust Banks Inc STI US 17/01/2014 C Bef-mkt ER Q4 2013
Bank of New York Mellon Corp/The BK US 17/01/2014 C 12:30 ER Q4 2013
Morgan Stanley MS US 17/01/2014 C 13:15 ER Q4 2013
Cooper Tire & Rubber Co CTB US 17/01/2014 E ER Q3 2013
Progressive Corp/The PGR US 17/01/2014 E ER Q4 2013
Schlumberger Ltd SLB US 17/01/2014 C ER Q4 2013

(BFW) Nissan, Renault, Peugeot Raised to Outperform at Bernstein

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Nissan, Renault, Peugeot Raised to Outperform at Bernstein 2014-01-13 06:44:08.529 GMT

By Francesca Cinelli Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese autos still have momentum thanks to FX, mass Euro autos still offer deep value, Bernstein says. * Nissan, Peugeot upgraded from market perform * Renault raised from underperform * Says Nissan (PT JPY1,200) has massively favorable JPY tailwinds, highly competitive engineering, manufacturing, product; co. working hard to fix many execution challenges * With regard to Renault (PT EU75), cites higher Nissan PT coupled with higher ests. for core Renault earnings thanks to better volume assumptions in both Europe and emerging mkts * As for Peugeot (PT EU15), says engineering and product range still very strong; highlights co. continued to invest heavily in new technology through crisis (unlike some peers), should be doing better than it is in mkt shr terms

Link to Company News:{7201 JP <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{RNO FP <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{UG FP <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{F IM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{BMW GR <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{DAI GR <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{VOW GR <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{PAH3 GR <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{TTMT IN <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{1114 HK <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{489 HK <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{2333 HK <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{2777 HK <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{175 HK <Equity> CN <GO>}

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FT : Big Auto revs up R&D to record level

The global car industry is spending more on research and development than ever before as manufacturers try to stay ahead of a rapidly shifting market and fierce competition from the technology industry.
Investment in new technologies to make cars more efficient, more interactive, run on new fuels and even begin to drive themselves is growing faster than sales and revenue, amid a period of technological disruption not seen in the industry since the birth of the internal combustion engine.

Research and development spending by the car industry has grown at an annual rate of 8 per cent over the past four years, almost three times the rate of increase seen between 2001 and 2012, according to research by the Boston Consulting Group.
The news comes on the eve of the Detroit motor show, the industry’s first product showcase of the year, and traditionally the stage where the world’s biggest carmakers show off their most advanced new models.
The R&D push will be visible in launches of new vehicles such as Ford’s next-generation F-150 pick-up truck, boasting an ultra-lightweight aluminium body, more efficient engine, and radars, cameras and partial-autonomy technology that the carmaker says make the truck its most advanced product on the market.
“Whether it’s advanced materials, microprocessors or other advanced technologies, this is an incredibly sophisticated product,” said Pete Reyes, chief engineer on the new F-150, which took five years to develop and weighs up to 320kg less than its predecessor. “This is truly groundbreaking.”
Today’s vehicles boast in-car entertainment and connectivity controlled by more than 100m lines of software code – more than a fighter jet – and are powered by smaller and more efficient engines, supplemented by electric batteries or hydrogen.
Caught between ever-tougher emission legislation, customer demands for better-connected vehicles and unprecedented competition from technology providers such as Google and IBM, auto industry leaders are attempting to rebrand themselves as innovators rather than manufacturers.
“Innovation in the automotive industry is retaking centre stage,” said Xavier Mosquet, BCG senior partner. “Consumers want to buy cars from companies that bring new technologies to market . . . [This] will be a major factor in individual automakers’ success in the coming years.”
Volkswagen, General Motors and Toyota, the industry’s three biggest R&D spenders, increased their combined spending 13 per cent between 2007 and 2012 to $27.4bn. Their combined annual revenue rose 8 per cent over the same period.
Volkswagen, which owns the VW, Audi and Skoda brands, invests more in R&D than any other company worldwide, outpacing technology groups such as Samsung and Microsoft.
That spending is paying dividends. Global patent filings for low-emission engine technology by carmakers have doubled over the past five years, sparking fears of litigation battles .
Since 2009, GM, the biggest US carmaker by sales, has created a $100m venture capital fund, GM Ventures, to make early-stage investments in technology developers. It recently added a research centre in the Israeli tech hub of Tel Aviv. It also has an office in Palo Alto, California, that it refers to as its “eyes and ears” in Silicon Valley.
Google has rolled out versions of its self-driving car, while IBM recently signed a deal with component manufacturer Continental to develop new technologies.
At the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas last week, nine carmakers participated, and automotive companies took up 25 per cent more space than at the 2013 event.

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Asian markets mixed with Nikkei225 closed

***Economic Data*** - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CREDIT CARD BALANCES (A$): 49.7B V 48.9B PRIOR; CREDIT CARD PURCHASES: 22.4B V 23.0B PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV HOME LOANS M/M: 1.1% V 1.0%E; INVESTMENT LENDING: 1.5% V 8.2% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED LOAN VALUE: 1.9% V 1.7% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: -0.7% V -0.9% PRIOR

***Observations/Insights*** - Tracking the cues from the US markets on Friday, Asian markets were mixed as Japan was closed on national holiday. Last week the US markets ended mixed as the payrolls data increase at the slowest pace since Jan of 2011. - Trading in China's Shanghai was subdued following the yuan setting at a record high, continued currency appreciation. - Australia reported total number of owner-occupied home loans for November rose a seasonally adjusted 1.1% from the prior month beating estimates. The total loans for the construction of new dwellings were at 5.6k rising 2.3%, while loans for the purchase of new dwellings declined 4.3% to 2.9K. - The AUD continued its sharp rise against the USD from last week following the Australia home loans data. Despite the S&P/ASX trading in negative territory the big miners were trading higher earlier during the session due to gains in gold, commodity prices and Indonesia implementing plans to regulate mineral exports.

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC gauges demand for 7-day, 14-day reverse repos, 28-day repos and 91-day bill sales - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.0950 v 6.1008 prior setting (record high setting for Yuan) - (TW) Taiwan sells NT$25B in 182-day treasury bills

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) S&P: China property developers have mixed growth outlook for 2014 - (CN) China Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) official: China 2014 property sales may grow less than 10% - Chinese press - (CN) Beijing plans to add CNY1.25B to tackle air pollution curb - Chinese press - (CN) China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issues policies to tighten new shares issuance - financial press - (CN) China Zhejiang Province reports 3 new cases of H7N9 bird flu; Guangdong Province reports 2 new cases of H7N9 bird flu - Chinese press - (CN) China sovereign wealth fund (CIC) official: China local govt won't default - Xinhua - (CN) Former PBoC adviser Li Daokui: China's stock market has come to "darkest moment"; A downturn in stock market is unfavorable for investor's sentiment, could affect the pace of reform - Chinese press - (CN) China Ministry of Finance (MOF) researcher: China 2014 GDP likely to be 7.5%: Lower GDP limit to be at 7% - Chinese press

- (JP) Japan may draft collective self-defense view in April - Asahi News - (JP) Japan PM Abe support rating increases to 62% - Yomiuri - (JP) Japan to compile economic stimulus when determining sales tax hike - Japanese press - (JP) Japan Coast Guard sight three China vessels near disputed islands - Kyodo News

- (KR) South Korea Fin Min Hyun: South Korea to improve regulations to support entrepreneurs - Asian Development Bank (ADB) President Nakao: QE tapering effect has already factored into emerging markets - financial press - International regulators set new standards for leverage ratio - FT - (EU) ESM's Regling: ESM could sell debt in non-Euro currencies; could sell yuan-denominated debt in a few years - financial press - (IR) Iran, world powers advance nuclear agreement; Iran nuclear deal to start Jan 20th - financial press

***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 closes, S&P/ASX -0.3%, Kospi +0.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, Hang Seng -0.1%, Mar S&P500 -0.2% at 1,833, Feb gold +0.2% at $1,249, Feb crude oil -0.8% at $92.45/brl

US markets: - NPO: Judge estimates Garlock Sealing Technologies' mesothelioma liability at $125M, in line with Enpro's estimate - GM: To recall 370K units of 2014 full-size pickup trucks, citing a software glitch that could cause engine fires - press - ICPT: NIH says patients taking ICPT's liver-disease drug had "disproportionate lipid abnormalities" compared to patients taking placebo in the trial - financial press - CLVS: Citigroup biotech analyst makes positive comments on CNBC; expects good results from its lung cancer product with data out in the next few weeks - QSII: Guides Q3 results below analyst consensus - filing

Notable movers by sector: - Financials: Xinhu Zhongbao +0.3% (issues profit warning); Poly Property Group 119.HK -1.7% (2013 contracted sales result) - Materials: Aluminum Corp of China 2600.HK +6.2%, Yunnan Aluminum 000807.CN +4.2%, Shandong Nanshan Aluminum 600219.CN +2.7% (Aluminum Corp of China issue positive profit alert) - Energy: Sinovel Wind Group 601558.CN -9.7% (investigated by CSRC); Jutal Offshore Oil Services 3303.HK +4.6% (awarded order); Dart Energy DTE.AU +8.7% (enters agreement with Total); Korean Gas 036460.KR -2.1% (Dec sales result) - Healthcare: China National Accord Medicines 1099.HK -2.6% (VP detained on corruption) - Telecom: Telstra Corp TLS.AU -0.2% (considers sale unit)

NYT : SAC Trader ‘Corrupted’ Doctors, Prosecutor Says

SAC Trader ‘Corrupted’ Doctors, Prosecutor Says

Mathew Martoma, a former SAC Capital Advisors hedge fund manager, “corrupted” doctors to get an “illegal edge” that helped him perpetrate the most lucrative insider trading scheme in history, a federal prosecutor said on Friday.

“The case is about cheating,” Arlo Devlin-Brown, an assistant United States attorney, told jurors during the opening of Mr. Martoma’s trial in Lower Manhattan. That cheating resulted in hundreds of millions of dollars for SAC and a $9.3 million bonus for Mr. Martoma.

Mr. Martoma’s lawyer countered that the government’s case was “riddled with inconsistencies and filled with reasonable doubt” and reminded the jury that Mr. Martoma’s future was on the line.

“The stakes here could not be higher,” Richard Strassberg, the lead defense lawyer said, citing “The Exonerated,” a play about six people who are wrongfully convicted of murder and other offenses.

The opening arguments were delivered to a jury of five men and seven women that includes a chief executive and a New York City bus driver, in a courtroom packed with friends and family of Mr. Martoma and spectators.

Mr. Martoma, 39, is the second SAC employee to stand trial in the Justice Department’s decade-long investigation into insider trading at SAC, which is run by the billionaire Steven A. Cohen.

The trial is at the heart of an investigation into what authorities have called a “systematic insider trading scheme.” Eight former SAC employees have been criminally charged with insider trading; six pleaded guilty. Last month, in the same courthouse, Michael S. Steinberg, another SAC trader, was found guilty of insider trading, a month after SAC agreed to pay $1.2 billion and plead guilty to insider trading.

On Friday, the lead prosecutors in Mr. Steinberg’s trial, Antonia M. Apps and Harry Chernoff, were among the spectators.

Mr. Martoma has been accused of seeking confidential information about the clinical trial of an Alzheimer’s drug and making trades in shares of the two companies developing it, Wyeth and Elan, based on that information. The trades helped the firm to avoid losses and generate profits totaling $276 million.

On Friday, the government promised to show jurors emails, phone calls and trading charts surrounding SAC’s trades of Elan and Wyeth shares, including evidence of the hedge fund’s $700 million position in Elan and Wyeth stock just two weeks before the companies announced negative results of the trial and before SAC sold all of its stock.

The government plans to bring to the witness stand Dr. Sidney Gilman, an 81-year-old retired University of Michigan professor who was also a paid consultant for Elan. During the period that Dr. Gilman worked for Elan, Mr. Martoma cultivated a business and personal relationship with Dr. Gilman and sought his “expert services” to obtain illegal tips, Mr. Devlin-Brown said.

The prosecution’s case turns on the testimony of Dr. Gilman, chairman of the safety committee for the trial of the Alzheimer’s drug, Mr. Strassberg said.

But his testimony has been a “moving target,” he added. Mr. Strassberg sought to discredit Dr. Gilman, who has reached a nonprosecution agreement with the government.

Mr. Strassberg told the jury that the government made Dr. Gilman an offer he couldn’t refuse: immunity in exchange for his cooperation. The deal was “a free pass as long as he agreed to say that he had tipped off Mathew Martoma,” he said.

While Dr. Gilman and Mr. Martoma exchanged emails and their meetings together were documented, there is no evidence to show exactly what they discussed, Mr. Strassberg said.

Mr. Strassberg also raised questions about Dr. Gilman’s memory. When he was meeting with Mr. Martoma, Mr. Strassberg said, Dr. Gilman was undergoing chemotherapy treatment for cancer and was taking prednisone, a drug that can cause side effects of “confusion.”

“The prosecution’s case does not add up,” he told the jury.

On Friday afternoon, the jury also heard testimony from the government’s first witness, Timothy W. Jandovitz, a former trader at SAC who worked with Mr. Martoma. Mr. Jandovitz, who was responsible for executing the trades for Mr. Martoma and two other portfolio managers, told the jury that he did not know that Mr. Martoma had sold his entire position in Elan.

On July 29, 2008, the day that Elan announced its failed trial, Mr. Jandovitz’s computer system still said Mr. Martoma had a significant position in Elan. When he returned to the office the next day, the hedge fund had no position in the stock.

Mr. Jandovitz said he was later told that, “Steve Cohen directed Mathew Martoma not to inform me of our decision to sell the stock.”

Over the course of the week, which included three days of jury selection, the presiding judge, Paul G. Gardephe, made several rulings that could alter proceedings of the trial, which is expected to last up to four weeks.

These included a ruling that prevents prosecutors from using evidence that Mr. Martoma fainted when first confronted by F.B.I. agents on the front lawn of his million-dollar home in Boca Raton, Fla., in November 2011.

He also ruled to exclude a May 2012 deposition by Mr. Cohen, SAC’s founder, in which he told Securities and Exchange Commission investigators that he sold shares of Wyeth after discussing the company with another analyst at SAC. The defense argued the evidence would help exonerate Mr. Martoma.

(BFW) Araghchi: Iran Enrichment Will Continue; No New Centrifuges

 BN 01/12 19:58 *ARAGHCHI: DISMANTLING OF NUCLEAR PROGRAM WON'T TAKE PLACE
 BN 01/12 19:58 *ARAGHCHI: IF COUNTERPARTIES RENEGE, FULL PROGRAM TO RESUME
 BN 01/12 19:56 *ARAGHCHI: HALF OF 196KG 20%-ENRICHED URANIUM STK TO BE OXIDISED
 BN 01/12 19:56 *ARAGHCHI: HALF OF 196KG 20%-ENRICHED URANIUM STK TO BE WEAKENED
 BN 01/12 19:56 *ARAGHCHI: $4.2 BLN TO RELEASE IN 8 INSTALLMENTS
BFW 01/12 19:55 *ARAGHCHI: $4.2 BLN OF FROZEN FUNDS WILL BE RELEASED TO IRAN
 BN 01/12 19:54 *ARAGHCHI: BANKING CHANNEL TO ALLOW INTERNATIONAL TRANSACTIONS
 BN 01/12 19:54 *ARAGHCHI: ENRICHMENT WILL CONTINUE, NO NEW CENTRIFUGES ADDED
 BN 01/12 19:54 *IRAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ABBAS ARAGHCHI SPEAKS IN MEDIA
Araghchi: Iran Enrichment Will Continue; No New Centrifuges
2014-01-12 20:11:57.684 GMT


By Theo Mullen
     Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas
Araghchi speaks to media.
  * Dismantling of nuclear program won’t take place: Araghchi
  * Opening of banking channel will allow Iran to conduct
    international transactions: Araghchi
  * $4.2b of frozen funds will be released in 8 installments:
    Araghchi
  * Half of 20%-enriched uranium stock to be weakened, half
    oxidized: Araghchi
  * Full enrichment program to resume if counterparties renege
    on agreement: Araghchi


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Theo Mullen at +1-404-507-1301 or
tmullen11@bloomberg.net

FT : Cargill acquires stake in Ukraine agribusiness

Cargill acquires stake in Ukraine agribusiness

Cargill, the US-based agriculture trading group, has doled out $200m for a stake in UkrLandFarming, Ukraine’s largest agribusiness holding, in a potentially far-reaching deal that sources said would see both groups partner up in future grain exports to China and other growing markets.
The deal, for 5 per cent of the holding, boosts Cargill’s already strong trading presence in one of the world’s most promising agriculture commodity producers. It comes amid reports that China was increasingly rejecting imports of genetically modified US corn as it stepped up organic purchases from Ukraine.

The transaction puts a value of $4bn on UkrLandFarming, the world’s eighth-largest land cultivator and second biggest egg producer through its 77 per cent ownership in London-listed Avangardco.
The conglomerate was founded and built up in recent years through acquisitions by Mr Oleg Bakhmatyuk, a Ukrainian billionaire.
“The transaction will help Cargill secure long-term supplies from one of Ukraine’s largest farmers, and gives UkrLandFarming a very strong strategic partner that will help them achieve their goals of broadening exports, especially in Asia,” said Nick Piazza, chief executive of Kiev-based investment bank SP Advisors.
Ukraine, which harvested a record corn harvest last year of 29m tonnes, hopes to boost exports this season by some 35 per cent to 18m tonnes, catapulting the eastern European country to the ranks of the world’s top corn exporters. It now vies with Argentina for the rank of the world’s third largest corn exporting country.
Ukraine made its first corn shipment to China late last year, as part of a $3bn loan-for-corn deal brokered by state companies in both countries.
Last year, Mr Bakhmatyuk said UkrLandFarming hoped to sell up to 700,000 tonnes of corn to China this season, boosting total annual exports within five years to reach 6m tonnes with one-third destined for Asia.
The deal comes amid Ukraine’s deepest political crisis in a decade.
Home to some of the world’s richest farming land, Ukraine earned the title “Breadbasket of Europe” centuries ago for its ability to feed growing populations.
Cargill opened a Ukrainian operations base in 1991. In recent years it has acquired or built grain silos, sunflower seed processing capacity and an animal feed mill in the country.
Rival traders, including New York-listed Bunge and Archer Daniels Midland and Swiss-based Glencore, also have businesses in Ukraine including processing plants and export terminals on the Black Sea.
Cargill confirmed its 5 per cent stake in UkrLandFarming but said it did not have any intention to control, manage or operate the business.

WSJ : Fed Unlikely to Alter Course After Jobs Report (J.HILSENRATH)

Fed Unlikely to Alter Course After Jobs Report

Friday's disappointing jobs report is likely to curb the Federal Reserve's recent enthusiasm about the U.S. economic recovery, but it seems unlikely on its own to convince officials they should alter the policy course Chairman Ben Bernanke laid out for the central bank in December.

That course calls for gradual reductions in its monthly bond purchases as the recovery picks up momentum, with an eye to ending the program this year. The Fed has been buying mortgage and Treasury bonds to hold down long-term interest rates in hopes of boosting economic growth.

"It takes a lot more than one labor-market report to be convincing that the trend has shifted," Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, told reporters after giving a speech in Raleigh, N.C., Friday. "In my experience one employment report rarely has an effect by itself on monetary policy."

The Fed's policy committee next meets Jan. 28-29. Officials will weigh then whether to reduce their monthly bond buys from $75 billion this month to $65 billion.

Mr. Bernanke suggested at his December news conference that the Fed's inclination is to reduce the purchases in $10 billion increments at every meeting in coming months.

Mr. Bernanke said in December, "If the incoming data broadly support the committee's outlook for employment and inflation, we will likely reduce the pace of securities purchases in further measured steps at future meetings." He added that the plan was not on a pre-set course and could be altered depending on new information.

Fed officials could decide to keep the program going longer than planned if evidence mounts that the economy isn't measuring up, as has happened several times before in an economic recovery that officially started in 2009. But other recent economic data have indicated a pickup in economic growth. The Fed tends to be an inertial institution, slow to change course until after evidence supporting a shift builds over time.

Still, the December employment report will likely put to rest for the time being any notion that the Fed might reduce the bond-buying program more quickly than planned because of robust growth.

"I've been pretty struck by the upbeat tone [in economic data] the past two months," San Francisco Fed President John Williams said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal earlier in the week. Fed Vice Chairwoman Janet Yellen, who becomes chairwoman Feb. 1, told Time Magazine she is expecting around 3% growth this year, which would be much better than in recent years.

The report was a reminder of the economy's past disappointments.

"Although consumption grew rapidly at the end of last year, we have seen similar surges since the last recession, only to see spending return to a more moderate trend," Mr. Lacker said.

The report exacerbated another conundrum for officials.

The jobless rate, at 6.7% at year-end, is falling largely because people are leaving the labor force, reducing the numbers of people counted as unemployed.

Because the decline is being driven by unusual labor-force flows—aging workers retiring, the lure of government disability payments, discouraged workers and other factors—the jobless rate is a perplexing indicator of job-market slack and vigor.

Yet Fed officials have tied their fortunes to this mast, linking interest-rate decisions to unemployment-rate movements. Since late 2012, the Fed has said it wouldn't raise short-term interest rates until after the jobless rate gets to 6.5% or lower. In December, officials softened the link, saying they would keep rates near zero "well past" the point when the jobless rate falls to 6.5%.

Most officials didn't expect that threshold to be crossed until the second half of this year. At the current rate, it could be reached by February.

The jobless-rate movement and the Fed's rhetoric create uncertainty about when rate increases will start. Short-term interest rates have been pinned near zero since December 2008, and officials have tried to assure the public they will stay low to encourage borrowing, investment, spending and growth.

Now, the public has more questions to consider: What does the Fed mean by "well past" the 6.5% threshold? Is that a year? A few months? How does it relate to the wind-down of the bond-buying program? What does it depend upon?

It will be Ms. Yellen's job to answer the questions. Mr. Bernanke's last day in office is Jan. 31.

FT : Hollande ‘affair’ clouds key policy questions on French economy

Hollande ‘affair’ clouds key policy questions on French economy

The timing could hardly have been worse.
Headlines alleging that François Hollande was having a secret affair with a film actress erupted just days before the French president is to make one of the most anticipated public appearances of his struggling, 20-month old presidency.

In a turbulent political atmosphere already roiled by government efforts to silence the anti-Semitic outbursts of the comic Dieudonné, Mr Hollande was aiming to use a press conference on Tuesday to persuade a sceptical French public that he is capable of turning around the sluggish French economy.
Now awkward questions about his private life threaten to overshadow an occasion that will also be closely watched by France’s European partners, anxious that the eurozone’s second-biggest economy should not become a drag on the continent’s post-crisis recovery.
Mr Hollande has raised expectations that he will use the press conference to detail how he intends to accelerate the revival of an economy whose rate of recovery is lagging Germany, the UK and several other European countries.
Before the Dieudonné and love affair stories blew up, a big talking point in France had been the president’s New Year address to the nation that appeared to signal a shift towards the kind of market-oriented policies long demanded by the EU.
Mr Hollande stressed the need to cut France’s huge public spending bill, reduce its big tax burden and ease the heavy costs on business stemming from the country’s high social charges levied on employment.

In unusual language for a French socialist leader, Mr Hollande spoke of “excesses” and “abuses” in the social welfare system and said he was “certain that we can do more by spending less”.
The address prompted a wave of commentary suggesting Mr Hollande had come out as a “social liberal” – in French terms, a market reformist.
An angry Pierre Laurent, leader of the Communist party, said Mr Hollande had “turned his back on those that hoped they had elected the left to power”.
Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo Securities in Paris, wrote: “Under pressure from economic constraints and with his ratings at an all-time low, François Hollande has resolved to adopt a policy that prioritises supply. The intention is laudable.”
What Mr Cavalier and others will look for on Tuesday are details of what Mr Hollande proposes by his promise of a “responsibility pact” with business, particularly how far he is prepared to go in cutting labour costs for companies, currently returning record low profit margins as France continues to suffer weak international competitiveness.
Attention will also focus on whether Mr Hollande spells out plans for further spending and tax cuts. Since he took office, the tax burden has sharply increased as the government has relied mainly on higher taxes to bring down the budget deficit.
The government has already pledged to stabilise taxes from 2015 and shift the emphasis of debt reduction to spending cuts, with a target of €50bn, equivalent to about 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product, over the next three years. But with strong resistance on the left to welfare cuts, there is scepticism that Mr Hollande will go any further.
“I hope this U-turn is real, but I fear it is just smoke and mirrors,” says Philippe Villin, an independent adviser to many top French companies and a trenchant critic of the government.
He warns business against being lured into a “trap” of complicity with government policy. “The truth is, since the left came to power, there has been an accumulation of new charges and constraints and a terrible increase in the taxation of companies and individuals.”
The stakes are certainly high. The government has angrily dismissed recent claims that France has become “the sick man” of Europe. The economy was never as hard hit by the crisis as others, including the UK. It looks set to produce about 1 per cent growth in 2014, with unemployment likely to peak at just short of 11 per cent in the course of the year, below the eurozone average.
But business confidence and investment remain low, the trade deficit high and the Cour des Comptes, the national auditor, warned this month that France’s high level of public debt remains “in the danger zone” – susceptible to an increase in interest rates.
The onus is firmly on Mr Hollande to give a signal that his government can accelerate the recovery. But on Tuesday, he will first have to deal with the unwelcome issue of his love life.