>>> USResearch Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • A10 Networks (ATEN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research, tgt $22
    • Afya (AFYA) upgraded to Overweight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $17.50
    • Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays, tgt $61
    • Aramark (ARMK) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $47
    • Azenta (AZTA) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, tgt $35
    • BellRing Brands (BRBR) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $50
    • Camden National (CAC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Stephens, tgt $44
    • CarMax (KMX) upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JPMorgan, tgt $58
    • Comerica (CMA) upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies, tgt $70
    • Cryoport (CYRX) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc
    • Digital Turbine (APPS) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA Securities, tgt $5.50
    • Driven Brands (DRVN) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $23
    • Edgewell Personal Care (EPC) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $23
    • Gartner (IT) upgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $270
    • Grocery Outlet (GO) upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $16
    • Halozyme Therapeutics (HALO) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $75
    • Hologic (HOLX) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital, tgt $87
    • Incyte (INCY) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $89
    • JBT Marel (JBTM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at William Blair
    • Monday.com (MNDY) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $310
    • RingCentral (RNG) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, tgt $35
    • TopBuild (BLD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Seaport Research Partners, tgt $450
    • Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $460
  • Downgrades
    • Agilon Health (AGL) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup, tgt $1
    • Atkore (ATKR) downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight at KeyBanc
    • CACI International (CACI) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $535
    • Coupang (CPNG) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $27
    • Gartner (IT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS, tgt $270
    • Int'l Consolidated Airlines (ICAGY) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
    • Kemper (KMPR) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Piper Sandler, tgt $50
    • New Oriental Education (EDU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, tgt $50
    • SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $9
    • Snap (SNAP) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens JMP
    • Vivid Seats (SEAT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord, tgt $23
  • Others
    • Ezcorp (EZPW) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $20
    • FirstCash (FCFS) initiated with a Buy at Texas Capital, tgt $160
    • Indivior (INDV) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $27
    • Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) initiated with an Outperform at Raymond James, tgt $54
    • Rapport Therapeutics (RAPP) initiated with a Buy at H.C. Wainwright, tgt $31
    • Riot Platforms (RIOT) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $13.75

>>>Walt Disney beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS above conse

walt Disney beats by $0.16, reports revs in-line; guides FY25 EPS above consensus (118.32 -1.03)
  • Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $1.61 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.16 better than the FactSet Consensus of $1.45; revenues rose 2.1% year/year to $23.65 bln vs the $23.69 bln FactSet Consensus.
    • 183 million Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions, an increase of 2.6 million versus Q2 fiscal 2025
    • 128 million Disney+ subscribers, an increase of 1.8 million versus Q2 fiscal 2025.
    • Domestic ESPN operating income declined 7% versus the prior-year quarter primarily due to higher programming and production costs reflecting contractual rate increases for the NBA and college sports.
    • Domestic Parks & Experiences operating income grew 22% to $1.7 billion.
  • Q4 Fiscal 2025:
    • Total Disney+ and Hulu subscriptions: Increase of more than 10 million compared to Q3 fiscal 2025, with the majority of the increase coming from Hulu as a result of expanded Charter deal
    • Disney+ subscribers: Modest increase in Disney+ subscribers compared to Q3 fiscal 2025
  • Co issues upside guidance for FY25, sees EPS of $5.85, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $5.80 FactSet Consensus.
    • Entertainment Direct-to-Consumer: Operating income of $1.3 billion
    • Entertainment: Double-digit percentage segment operating income growth
    • Sports: 18% segment operating income growth
    • Experiences: 8% segment operating income growth
    • Disney Cruise Line pre-opening expense of ~$185 million, with ~$50 million in Q4 fiscal 2025
    • Equity loss from India JV of ~$200 million driven by purchase accounting amortization

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • MYGN +27.4%, FLYW +18.6%, RNG +17.7%, ALAB +16.4%, GO +15.4%, ANGI +14.9%, SKY +14.9%, ANET +12.6%, CRCT +12.4%, KVYO +12.3%, CYRX +11.9%, WIX +11.5%, TBLA +11.5%, PRCH +11.2%, LRN +11%, QDEL +10.2%, EYE +10%, ZETA +9.8%, HALO +8.9%, LEU +8.4%, QLYS +8.3%, HNGE +7.8%, REZI +7.5%, CIX +7%, SGC +6.6%, CURI +6.2%, MTCH +6%, ARDT +5.5%, SWKS +5%, CBLL +4.8%, IOSP +4.7%, IGIC +4.6%, IFF +4.5%, ONC +4.5%, GEO +4.5%, ULS +4.4%, SSRM +4.4%, SUPN +4.3%, DV +4.2%, NCMI +3.7%, TDC +3.4%, JELD +3.4%, DIS +3.1%, EGHT +3.1%, IONQ +2.9%, ATEN +2.6%, CRUS +2.5%, HMC +2.5%, ADPT +2.4%, SPWH +2.3%, PCTY +2.3%, LMAT +2.2%, JANX +2%, ICFI +1.9%, DEI +1.9%, RIGL +1.8%, INCY +1.6%, TECH +1.6%, NE +1.6%, KD +1.5%, AFG +1.5%, BWIN +1.5%, RVLV +1.4%, GXO +1.4%, SAFE +1.4%, COIN +1.3%, SERV +1.1%, OUT +1.1%, SPR +1.1%, ITUB +1.1%, CC +1%, BL +1%, CRC +1%
  • Gapping down:
    • EOLS -26.7%, LFMD -26.1%, PSNL -25.5%, OPEN -19.4%, SNAP -18.7%, APPS -18.3%, SMCI -16.2%, TRVG -15.6%, METC -15.3%, AIP -14.2%, DAWN -14.2%, HCKT -12.2%, CLOV -11.6%, PAYS -11.5%, BBIO -11.3%, KMPR -11%, POWL -10.3%, GSM -9.9%, HY -9.9%, MEC -9.1%, CDRE -7.9%, VSAT -7.9%, LCID -7.4%, ACMR -7.4%, BOOM -6.8%, ACEL -6.2%, AMD -6.2%, AEIS -6.1%, RIVN -6%, ENLT -5.7%, MDXH -5.6%, FUN -5.6%, UPST -5.5%, JAZZ -5.5%, GLPG -5.3%, RRX -5%, MOS -4.7%, LMB -4.6%, SOPH -4.4%, VSTS -4.2%, PCRX -3.3%, AMTM -3.2%, OSCR -3.1%, MNTN -2.7%, MASI -2.7%, LPX -2.7%, ARR -2.6%, TOST -2.6%, CGBD -2.5%, EVEX -2.2%, TMCI -2%, SITC -2%, EQH -2%, IPAR -1.9%, SNEX -1.6%, MRUS -1.4%, CPNG -1.2%, NVO -1.2%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of August 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* BFF Bank Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 12 euros
* BP Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 465 pence (+)
* Cofinimmo Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 77 euros
* EFG International Raised to Buy at Octavian; PT 20 Swiss francs (+)
* Halozyme Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75
* Infineon Raised to Buy at DZ Bank; PT 42 euros (+)
* Interroll Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 2,750 Swiss francs
* Kardex Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 375 Swiss francs
* Tekova Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 1.15 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Baltic Classifieds Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 350 pence
* Clariant Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Cloudberry Clean Energy Cut to Neutral at SpareBank
* Fresnillo Cut to Neutral at Banco BTG Pactual; PT 1,600 pence
* Fugro Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 12.50 euros
* Fugro Cut to Neutral at Van Lanschot Kempen; PT 13.10 euros (+)
* Galapagos Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 19 euros
* GTT Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* IAG cut to Sell at UBS (+)
* NN Group Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities; PT 61 euros (+)
* Scout24 Cut to Underperform at Grupo Santander; PT 109.50 euros (+)
* Snap Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
* Taylor Wimpey Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 110 pence

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 1,992 euros
* EQT Rated New Buy at DBS Bank; PT 347.65 kronor
* Fresenius Medical Care ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
* Kuros Biosciences Rated New Add at Baader Helvea
* Luceco Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 160 pence
* Rosebank Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 435 pence

>>> Call

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 6th of August 2025

>>> Up
* BFF Bank Raised to Outperform at Mediobanca SpA; PT 12 euros
* Cofinimmo Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 77 euros
* Halozyme Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75
* Interroll Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 2,750 Swiss francs
* Kardex Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 375 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Baltic Classifieds Group Cut to Hold at Peel Hunt; PT 350 pence
* Clariant Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 9 Swiss francs
* Cloudberry Clean Energy Cut to Neutral at SpareBank
* Fresnillo Cut to Neutral at Banco BTG Pactual; PT 1,600 pence
* Fugro Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 12.50 euros
* Galapagos Cut to Sell at Deutsche Bank; PT 19 euros
* GTT Cut to Hold at Berenberg
* Snap Cut to Market Perform at Citizens
* Taylor Wimpey Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 110 pence

>>> Initiation
* Adyen Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 1,992 euros
* EQT Rated New Buy at DBS Bank; PT 347.65 kronor
* Fresenius Medical Care ADRs Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane
* Kuros Biosciences Rated New Add at Baader Helvea
* Luceco Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 160 pence
* Rosebank Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 435 pence

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 6th of August 2025

Asian shares rose as carmakers in Japan gained on optimism that the country will be able to secure lower auto tariffs in negotiations with the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3% with Japan’s Topix Index gaining 1%. Toyota Motor Corp., which reports earnings Thursday, jumped 2.2%. Oil rose for the first time in five days, while a gauge of the dollar dipped. Treasuries edged lower with the yield on the 10-year rising 1 basis point to 4.22%. Equity-index futures for the US and Europe advanced 0.3%. Indian stocks were little changed after the central bank kept the benchmark interest rate steady, as policymakers assess the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariff shock on the country. Asian chip-related stocks and some pharmaceutical companies fell after Trump said he will announce levies on the sectors “within the next week or so.” Japan’s chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is heading to Washington as Tokyo aims to urge the US to proceed with a cut to car tariffs as promised in last month’s trade deal. Tariff headlines are once again dominating with Trump saying he was “getting very close to a deal” with China, and India bracing for pain from Trump’s threats. US stocks are consolidating after their recent rally amid concerns over the direction of interest rates and weak economic data. After a soft jobs data Friday, the latest economic indicators have since complicated the Federal Reserve’s balancing act between taming inflation and supporting growth. The US services sector effectively stagnated in July as firms — faced with tepid demand and rising costs — reduced headcount. The data, released Tuesday, painted a picture of a sluggish service economy wrestling with the fallout of higher tariffs, cautious consumers and uncertainty stemming from Trump’s policies.  Asian chip-related stocks declined after a stream of negative news, including a Taiwanese probe into an alleged theft of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s trade secrets. Shares of the chipmaker fell 1.7% Wednesday. Also, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. warned that its access to the crucial China market remains uncertain. Super Micro Computer Inc. tumbled after its results missed expectations. Meanwhile, Trump also suggested he would impose increased tariffs on additional countries buying energy from Russia — including China — after saying earlier Tuesday that he would raise levies on Indian exports within 24 hours. India is racing to contain the economic fallout from the threatened tariffs, which has left officials in New Delhi feeling unsure of how to respond.  In other tariff news, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter arrived in Washington to make a last-minute bid for a deal to lower the 39% tariff imposed last week by Trump.  US After Hours ANET +13.9%, SKY +13.3%, LRN +11.2%, KVYO +11% higher on earnings; IONQ +1.5% as AMZN discloses new position; SNAP -16.2%, SMCI -15.6%, POWL -12.4% lower on earnings

Nikkei +0.55% Hang Seng +0.05% CSI +0.05% Shanghai +0.18% Shenzen +0.47%

Eur$ 1.1578 CNH 7.1929 CNY 7.1888 JPY 147.41 GBP1.3306 CHF 0.8070 RUB 79.9787 TRY 40.6775 WTI$ 65.57 +0.63% Gold 3,372 -0.26% BTC 113,884 +0.17% ETH 3,612 +1%

S&P +0.38% Nasdaq +0.27% EuroStoxx +0.48% FTSE +0.47% Dax +0.63% SMI +0.36%

Macro :
- Josep Borrell says EU’s €6.6bn military aid to Ukraine frozen due to Hungary’s veto
- OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale at $500 Billion Valuation
- Tariffs on Fertilizer Cause Drop in Shipments to US, Mosaic Says
- HHS to Wind Down mRNA Vaccine Programs, The move includes terminating 22 vaccine investments and canceling and shrinking various contracts and solicitations - WSJ
- Lebanese government tells army to prepare plan to disarm Hizbollah - FT
- Yerevan confirms Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks in Washington

Keep an eye on :
- ABN NA : ABN Amro 2Q Profit Beats Estimates, ABN Amro Pledges €250 Million Buyback as Profit Beats Estimates, Dutch State to Sell Part of ABN Amro Stake to Bank Via Buyback
- ADES AB : Ades Holding CEO Plans More Deals After Shelf Drilling Purchase
- AH NA : Ahold Delhaize 2Q Adjusted Operating Margin Beats Estimates
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal Suspends Ops in Mexico Plant Due to Blackout: EF
- Atour LifeStyl IPO : US-Listed Hotel Chain Atour Is Said to Weigh Hong Kong Listing
- BAMI IM : Banco BPM 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- BAYN GY : Bayer 2Q Pharmaceuticals Unit Sales Meet Estimates
- BEI GY : Beiersdorf 1H Sales Meet Estimates
- BA US : Cathay Poised to Make First Boeing Order in 12 Years (Correct)
- BPE IM : BPER Banca 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- BP/ LN : BP Plans Sweeping Business Review as It Vows to ‘Do Better’
- CAN L N : ESPN to Buy NFL Media Assets for 10% Equity Stake in ESPN
- CC uS : Chemours Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast
- COIN US : Coinbase Prices Upsized Offering of $2.6B Convertible Notes
- CBK GY : Commerzbank Ups FY NII Forecast; Applied for up to €1B Buyback
- DIS US : ESPN to Buy NFL Media Assets for 10% Equity Stake in ESPN - WSJ
- EQNR NO : Korea Hydro Seeks to Buy Stake in Equinor’s Ulsan Project: Maeil
- ZIL2 GY : ElringKlinger 2Q Ebitda EU35.8M
- FRE GY ; Fresenius SE Boosts FY Organic Revenue Forecast, Fresenius Lifts Full-Year Sales Outlook as Revamp Gains Momentum
- GLPG NA : Galapagos Says GLPG5101 Gets FDA RMAT Designation
- GLEN LN : Glencore 1H Revenue Beats Estimates
- HALO US : Halozyme Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates
- IFM AU : TPG Capital Agrees to Buy Infomedia For A$1.72/Share Cash
- ITP FP : Interparfums Maintains FY EPS Forecast, Beats Estimates
- SKB GY : Koenig & Bauer 1H Ebit Loss EU13.8M Vs. Loss EU33.9M Y/y
- KTN GY : Kontron Raises FY Ebitda Forecast, Cuts FY Revenue Forecast
- MAR PL : Visabeira Offers to Buy Martifer Shares Not Held by Two Holders
- MSFT US : OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale Valuing Startup at $500 Billion
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- NDX1 GY : Nordex Gets Nearly Order for Nearly 52 MW in Germany
- NOVOB DC : Novo Nordisk Files 14 New Lawsuits on Compund Products
- NOVOB DC : Novo 2Q Ebit Misses Estimates, Novo 2Q Wegovy Sales Beat Estimates
- OPEN AI : OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale Valuing Startup at $500 Billion
- ORRON SS : Orron Energy 2Q Ebitda Loss EU6.0M Vs. Profit EU4.9M Y/y
- PLTR US : How Palantir Won Over Washington—and Pushed Its Stock Up 600% - WSJ
- PNDORA DC : Pandora Hit by Cyberattack on Client Data, Ritzau Says
- 1913 HK : Prada -2%
- QIA GY : Qiagen 2Q Net Sales Beat Estimates
- QTCOM FH : QT Group 2Q Net Sales Miss Estimates
- RILBA DC : Ringkjoebing Landbobank Boosts FY Net Income Forecast
- SAMPO FH : Sampo 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates, Sampo Narrows FY Insurance Revenue Forecast
- SHAO GY :
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy Sees FY Comparable Sales High End of +13% to +15%
- SMCI US Super Micro Falls After Cutting Annual Sales Forecast (-15% in after hours)
- UBXN SW : U-blox 1H Revenue Misses Estimates
- VSTS US : Vestis 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- VOE AV : Voestalpine 1Q Ebitda Misses Estimates, Voestalpine 1Q Profit Below Estimate on Steel Struggles
- VNA GY : Vonovia Boosts FY Adjusted EBT Forecast, Vonovia Lifts Guidance After Growth in Key Segments
- YAR NO : Mosaic Sees 3Q Potash Sales Vol. 2.2M to 2.4M Tonnes, Est. 2.25M
- ZAL GY : Zalando Narrows FY Revenue Forecast (1)

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +3.8%
    • Zalando Narrows FY Revenue Forecast (1)
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +3.2%
    • *COMMERZBANK APPLIED FOR UP TO €1B SHARE BUYBACK
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +2.4%
    • Vonovia Boosts FY Adjusted EBT Forecast
  • LSE Group (LS4C TH) +2.1%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +1.9%
    • Siemens Energy to Hit Top End of Guidance With US Demand Strong
  • Rolls-Royce (RRU TH) +1.7%
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +1.6%
    • Fresenius Lifts Full-Year Sales Outlook as Revamp Gains Momentum
  • HSBC (HBC1 TH) +1.4%
  • Siemens (SIE TH) +1.1%
    • Deutsche Telekom, Siemens, Zurich Ins.: Earnings-Day Vol
  • Symrise (SY1 TH) +1%
  • Ferrari (2FE TH) -0.8%
  • Fresnillo (FNL TH) -0.9%
  • IAG (INR TH) -1.1%
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) -4%
    • Beiersdorf Cuts FY Organic Sales Growth Forecast

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Zalando (ZAL TH) +4.8%
    • Zalando Narrows FY Revenue Forecast
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +3.8%
    • Siemens Energy to Hit Top End of Guidance With US Demand Strong
  • Commerzbank (CBK TH) +2.4%
    • *COMMERZBANK APPLIED FOR UP TO €1B SHARE BUYBACK
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +2.3%
    • Vonovia Boosts FY Adjusted EBT Forecast
  • Fresenius SE (FRE TH) +1.8%
    • Fresenius Lifts Full-Year Sales Outlook as Revamp Gains Momentum
  • Beiersdorf (BEI TH) -4.1%
    • Beiersdorf Cuts FY Organic Sales Growth Forecast
MDAX:
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +1.7%
    • Nordex Gets Nearly Order for Nearly 52 MW in Germany
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) +1.2%
  • Evotec (EVT TH) +1.2%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +1.1%
SDAX:
  • Kontron (KTN TH) +4%
    • Kontron Raises FY Ebitda Forecast, Cuts FY Revenue Forecast
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) +0.3%
    • Kloeckner Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda EU170M to EU240M, Est. EU228M
  • Formycon (FYB TH) -1%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.6%

FT : Meloni revives €13bn Sicilian bridge as part of defence planning

Meloni revives €13bn Sicilian bridge as part of defence planning
Italian government aims to add decades-old project to increased Nato spending pledge


Giorgia Meloni’s government on Wednesday was set to approve the construction of a €13bn bridge linking Sicily to the Italian mainland, resurrecting a controversial project that Rome now says is key for national security. 

Originally designed to spur economic development in one of Italy’s poorest regions, the 3.3km-long suspension bridge over the Messina Strait has had several false starts in recent decades. But the Italian government has now recast the project as a way for the country to help meet its Nato commitment to boost military spending.

Like all Nato allies, Italy has pledged to increase annual defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP within a decade, of which 1.5 per cent of GDP is earmarked for strategic infrastructure.

Meloni’s government aims to include the cost of the bridge as part of this effort, and has begun touting the project’s strategic value in the Mediterranean, where it believes Moscow is striving to increase its influence.  

“The Messina Strait bridge constitutes a fundamental infrastructure with respect to military mobility, taking into account the presence of important Nato bases in southern Italy,” Italian authorities wrote in an April report declaring the project of “overriding public interest”.

The road and railway bridge would assume a “key role in the context of defence and security — facilitating the movement of Italian and Nato allies armed forces”, the report said, citing “the growing role of the Mediterranean as a geopolitically sensitive area”.

However, Alessandro Marrone, who leads the defence programme at Rome’s Institute for International Affairs, said Rome’s claims were “stretching the concept” of a military asset, since Nato’s main priority is to ensure that troops stationed in western Europe can be rapidly deployed east if Russia attacks Nato’s eastern flank.

Marrone said Italy needed to instead focus on upgrading ports, airports and roads in regions where its troops are stationed: “If you have to go east, it’s either via the Adriatic, via plane, or via the Alps.”


Attempts to bridge the Messina Strait — whose turbulent waters were immortalised in Homer’s Odyssey — go back to ancient times. 

In 252BC, according to Roman chronicler Pliny the Elder, a consul managed to move 100 captured war elephants from Sicily to the Italian peninsula on rafts made of “rows of barrels tied together”.

The dream of linking up Sicily to the mainland took root in the 19th century with the unification of Italy. By 1970, it was deemed a national priority — critical to the economic development of one of Italy’s poorest regions.

Yet contemporary efforts to build the bridge have repeatedly faltered, hampered by Italy’s fragile public finances and persistent doubts about the project’s economic viability and structural integrity.

Messina residents also fought for years — and are mobilising again — to try to stop the project, which will require huge changes to the city, including the relocation of the train station.

In 2005, then prime minister Silvio Berlusconi issued the first €3.9bn contract for the bridge, but it was shelved months later after his government fell. On his return to power two years later, he tried to revive the project, only for it to be scrapped again in 2011 as Italy reeled from a sovereign debt crisis.

The cost of construction has ballooned from an expected €4.4bn when bidding first took place two decades ago to €13bn now. Still, Meloni’s government is committed to reviving the plan, and is talking up its strategic importance.

“We see Russia increasingly projecting itself into the Mediterranean,” Meloni told reporters on the sidelines of the Nato summit in June, as Italian strategists raised growing concerns about Moscow’s growing ties to Libya.

“There are many hybrid threats, many hostile actors operating on the southern flank of the [Nato] alliance,” she added.

But the bridge itself could turn into a vulnerability and add to Rome’s military costs if it had to defend it. 

“The infrastructure is destined to attract the attention of any potential aggressor, even a minor one,” wrote General Gualtiero Corsini all the way back in 1987. He said that of all the ways of connecting the island to the mainland “the suspension bridge has the highest vulnerability” and would require anti-aircraft and anti-missile protection.

Decades on, Marrone agrees that the bridge, if it were to be classified as military or strategic infrastructure, would need air and sea defences. But he is not convinced it would be considered a high-priority target for sabotage.

“It’s an easy target from a symbolic or political point of view — it will hit the headlines,” Marrone said. “But Russian military planners also know that Italian troops and reinforcements for the Baltic states or Poland will not transit that bridge.”