- Excluding the impact of structural changes, comparable currency neutral net revenues grew 4% in the quarter, reflecting an increase in concentrate sales and positive price/mix. Structural changes that impacted net revenues were primarily the deconsolidation of bottling operations in the Philippines and Brazil. Reported operating income decreased 4%, reflecting a 6% currency headwind, a 4% unfavorable impact due to the structural changes referenced above, as well as the effect of items impacting comparability. Excluding the impact of structural changes, comparable currency neutral operating income increased 6%. Items impacting comparability reduced fourth quarter 2013 operating income by $278 million and reduced fourth quarter 2012 operating income by $300 million.
- The Coca-Cola Company reported worldwide volume growth of 2% for the full year and 1% for Q4. While economic, political and environmental conditions across various regions impacted consumer spending and overall nonalcoholic ready-to-drink (NARTD) beverage industry performance during the year, we grew global value share in NARTD beverages, with volume and value share gains in core sparkling and still beverages for the year, supported by the strongest portfolio of brands in the industry.
Loud and Clear on Japanese If anyone doubted whether the world's most hyperactive central bank was losing its nerve, they were set straight on Tuesday. At a routine meeting that markets were expecting to pass uneventfully, the Bank of Japan announced it would double the scope of two special programs meant to spur bank lending, launching the Nikkei up 3%. The move isn't huge in the context of the BOJ's monetary easing program. Citigroup estimates that if fully utilized, the facilities would add around ¥20 trillion ($196 billion) to the central bank's balance sheet, which was already set to nearly double over two years to ¥290 trillion by the end of 2014. And the effectiveness of the programs themselves is questionable. The larger of the two BOJ facilities, which provided funds to banks in proportion to their increase in lending, was only being used at a third of its ¥15 trillion capacity. As banks and corporations are flush with cash already, demand for loans, not supply, is the true constraint on credit growth in Japan. But the psychological effect of telegraphing the bank's aggressiveness is clear and fits the playbook of aggressively proactive Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda. HSBC economist Izumi Devalier argues that by doubling the programs, and doing so in advance of their expiration at the end of March, the BOJ is "maximizing the announcement effect." It comes just as confidence in the great Abenomics experiment has hit a rough patch. Before Tuesday's rally, the Nikkei Stock Average was down more than 11% this year, and fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth was a tepid 1%. Bank lending has been lukewarm, with outstanding loans up just 2.3% from a year earlier in January. And there's all manner of angst over how April's sales-tax increase will ripple through the economy. With Tuesday's move, Mr. Kuroda signaled he is ready to do still more should the economy falter. The sharp stock market reaction indicates that investors are getting the message loud and clear.
Gapping down: ASTC -21.8%, LIVE -9.2%, MTL -6.5%, SDRL -3%, IHG -2.9%, KOOL -2.3%, TTM -1.5%, NVO -1.5%, RIG -1%
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Luxury Watch Sales May Improve, Cartier Rebound, HSBC Says 2014-02-18 11:08:48.119 GMT
By Heather Burke Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Luxury watch industry may improve in 2014 with lower inventories, female purchases rising, HSBC says in note. * HSBC: Inventories, Swiss watch exports beginning to stabilize in Greater China, co. comments suggest 2014 high- end watch sales may be better * Richemont’s Cartier watches (~1/3 profits) may rebound this yr, jewelry may continue to expand, Montblanc improve; reiterates overweight, CHF108 PT * Swatch will continue to have growth from middle class expanding, margin growth may be a bit less than Richemont because of Rivoli consolidation * Swatch brand may have strong growth, less profitable than co. avg. * Reiterates neutral, PT raised to CHF630 from CHF610
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To contact the editor responsible for this story: James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or jludden@bloomberg.net
Albert, our analyst is publishing this report today...I have been pushing the stock for few weeks...still like the story, momentum is really changing and IBM could be one of the big name of 2014...have a look to this report
Relative Value: IBM - the fundamental case
BUY February 18, 2014
IBM is successfully transforming itself into a software and service business with focus on high growth markets. IBM is expanding (organically and via acquisitions) into high value software and service businesses and high growth markets (BRICS and Africa) while systematically exiting underperforming hardware business (latest being x86 server business). By 2015, IBM expects to generate ~30% of its revenues from high growth markets while around 90% of its pre-tax profits from software and service businesses. By 2015, IBM aims to grow its operating EPS to $20 from $11.67 in 2010. In the latest results release (FY2013), IBM reiterated that it is on course to achieve this target. The ongoing transformation has not affected IBM's market position. IBM continues to maintain its leadership positions (according to Gartner Magic Quadrants) in various software and service segments. In addition, it also has a patent leadership in the world with over 6,400 patents vs Samsung's 5,000 patents. Relative valuation screens suggest a mixed picture on IBM's valuations. EV/FY2 Sales vs Operating margin (FY2) screen (R-square: 0.95) suggests a slight overvaluation while PBR vs ROC screen (R-square: 0.83) suggests a slight undervaluation. Oracle remains in the undervaluation territory on both these screens. The operating profit growth (3-year forward CAGR) vs FY2 PE screen is not that meaningful; however, it can be observed from the chart that low growth players (such as CSCO, MSFT) trades at better PE multiples than IBM. A sum-of-part valuation suggests a target price of $166 a share, which is around 6% below the current price. However, we note that this does not capture the value of the patent portfolio at IBM.
In addition, we note that long-term relative charts of IBM PE vs S&P500 PE and IBM PE vs PE of key peers (MSFT, INTC, ORCL, and CSCO) are all heading towards record low levels, particularly so in the case of IBM PE vs S&P500 PE, in which the ratio is near its lowest point since 1994. Hence, on a long-term PE relative valuation basis, IBM looks significantly undervalued. Similarly, the relative dividend yield of IBM vs S&P500 is at its highest level since 1994.
Given the likely multiple expansion due to a higher software content, IBM's growth targets and share repurchases, we derive a NAV for IBM of about $210-$220/share.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
2014-02-18 09:43:51.989 GMT
By Manuel Baigorri
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Spanish govt plans to support a tax
on financial transactions at today’s finance ministers’ meeting
with certain limitations, El Pais reports, citing people it
didn’t identify.
* Spain wants tax on financial transactions to only apply to
purchase of shares in biggest publicly traded companies, the
newspaper says
* Spain to oppose extending tax to other financial
transactions such as derivatives as it could affect to the
country’s debt position, El Pais says
* Link to story in Spanish: http://tinyurl.com/o7tq35e
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akirchfeld@bloomberg.net
2014-02-18 09:25:17.189 GMT
By Chris Malpass
Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Siemens should sell its diagnostics
business before margins erode, to exit an area that needs
significant investment to remain competitive, KeplerCheuvreux
says in note.
* Notes no one else sees Siemens disposing of diagnostics amid
revamp
* Potential disposals analysts have already identified include
building tech, hearing aids, baggage handling, metals tech
with total annual sales ~EU9b, and EV ~EU6.4b:
KeplerCheuvreux
* Diagnostiocs unit needs “major investments” to remain
competitive vs Roche
* 2013 underlying diagnostics margin 14.8% vs Roche 20.1%
* Needs R&D boost, bolt-on acquisitions to keep up with
Roche
* Notes co. may be reluctant to sell as margin above avg
for Siemens healthcare, business was revamped after
being acquired in 2007: Kepler
* Sees diagnostics sale 250bp accretive to ROCE:
KeplerCheuvreux
* NOTE: Siemens has announced 38 disposals in past 5 years of
which 30 completed, 6 pending, 1 cancelled, 1 proposed;
total value $4.4b: Bloomberg data
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jludden@bloomberg.net
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Lafarge, Holcim Cut to Sell at Goldman, Italcementi Upgraded 2014-02-18 08:31:21.653 GMT
By Cormac Mullen Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman adds Wienerberger to conviction buy list, upgrades Hochtief to buy from neutral, in Europe construction sector note. * Lafarge, Holcim cut to sell from neutral; Italcementi upgraded to neutral from sell at Goldman * Goldman says EM risks make sector bellwethers less interesting, sector valuations look high * Sees best risk-reward for Wienerberger * Kepler Cheuvreux says Holcim, Lafarge, Vicat, Boskalis preferred stocks in separate construction & materials sector note * Says CRH, HeidelbergCement, Wienerberger least-preferred * Says market has already priced in a “big chunk” of EM slowdown, FX headwinds * Lafarge falls as much as 2.8%, Holcim as much as 1.9%; Wienerberger rises as much as 3%, Hochtief as much as 2.8% * NOTE: Also, Lafarge Kenya Says Government Dispute May Hamper Expansion
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