2014-02-20 07:30:46.935 GMT
By Heather Burke
Feb. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Danone 4Q/2013 results had no big
surprises, 2014 forecast was maybe better than some investors
feared, Exane says; sees “modest” rise in shrs today.
* Some in mkt may have trouble being confident in +/- 20bps
margin forecast
* Bloomberg Industries analysis here
* Earlier story here
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To contact the reporter on this story:
Heather Burke in London at +44-20-7673-2044 or
hburke2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
- There is scope for better cooperation on unwinding unconventional monetary policy, such as wider central bank discussion of exit plans.
- With economic prospects improving, it will be critical to avoid a premature withdrawal of monetary policy accommodation, including in the US.
- ECB should ease policy to aid the economy, BoJ should ease further if progress toward 2% inflation target stalls or reverses.
Asian Market Update: China Flash manufacturing PMI contraction deepens; Japan trade deficit soars to new heights
***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA FEB HSBC/MARKIT FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.3 V 49.5E (7-month low; 2nd consecutive contraction) - (JP) JAPAN JAN MERCHANDISE TRADE BALANCE: -¥2.79T (record high deficit) V -¥2.49TE; ADJUSTED TRADE BALANCE: -¥1.82T V -¥1.51TE - (JP) JAPAN JAN SUPERMARKET SALES Y/Y: -0.2% V -0.8% PRIOR - (JP) Japan investors bought ¥501.5B (first net buys in 5 weeks) in foreign bonds last week vs sold net ¥617.2B in prior week; Foreign Investors sold net ¥279.0B in Japan stocks v sold net ¥76.4B in prior week - (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RBA FX TRANSACTIONS MARKET (A$): 362M V 884M PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 PPI INPUT Q/Q: -0.7% (first decline in a year) V 2.2% PRIOR; PPI OUTPUT: -0.4% (first decline in a year) V 2.4% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB ANZ CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 133.0 V 135.8 PRIOR; M/M: -2.1 V +4.9% PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: +2.8% (first rise in 3 months) V -0.7% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE Q4 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 6.1% V 0.8%E; Y/Y: 5.5% V 5.3%E; Maintains 2014 GDP forecast 2.0-4.0% - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: -470K (1st draw in 5 weeks) v +2Me; GASOLINE: +1.39M v -0.5Me; DISTILLATE: -675K v -2Me
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Tesla shares are zooming ahead with a 12% rise in extended session to fresh all-time highs above $215 after blowing away the estimates and guiding accelerated production and margin expansion while also promising strong growth in the China markets. - Australia earnings highlighted by improving results from Leighton Holdings, while key energy/materials companies - Alumina and Origin - slump on slower growth. - Japan trade conditions remain dire, with January figures showing the biggest deficit on record. Soft yen continues to do more damage than good on trade, as energy-driven growth in the value of imports outpaces the improvement in exports, serving as a reminder of just how critical the restart of nuclear reactors in Japan might be. Chief Cabinet Sec Suga attributed the slump in trade data to rising imports, while nuclear regulators were reported to be looking to conduct a safety review on a handful of reactors, paving the way to a "final review" in the coming months. Exports to China, US, and Europe, all showed double-digit growth rates, suggesting external demand is hardly to blame. - After an unexpected contraction in China HSBC manufacturing PMI last month, conditions deteriorated further in February. February flash PMI slumped to a 7-month low of 48.3, new orders component fell below 50 for the first time in seven months, and the Employment sub-index hit the lowest reading since Feb 2009. Backlog and inventories also pierced below the 50-mark into contraction zone. Analysts noted that seasonality might be once again in play, with only about a week of reliable data for this flash report after the Lunar New Year break, however critics of China reporting were further unnerved by the discrepancy of soft manufacturing trend and strong trade/lending figures in January. To complicate matters further, PBoC once again flashed its tilt toward a tightening bias with another large liquidity drain.
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥250B in 1-3yr JGB, ¥250B in 3-5yr JGB and ¥200B in JGB with maturity over 10-yr - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY60B in 14-day repos (2nd consecutive drain); Drains net CNY108B this week v drained CNY450B prior - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1146 v 6.1103 prior setting (Weakest Yuan setting since Dec 25th) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 5.7 tonnes to 795.6 tonnes (lowest level since Feb 3rd)
- Risk-off sentiment on the heels of the disappointing China manufacturing PMI predictably translated into soft AUD / strong JPY trade. AUD/USD fell about 50pips toward $0.8950, USD/JPY was down about 30pips below ¥102, and AUD/JPY cross saw a combined loss of nearly 100pips, falling from ¥92 to ¥91.05 session low post flash-PMI print.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) BofA/ML's Lu Ting: China HSBC/Markit flash PMI survey was conducted during the period of Feb 12-18th, where most of small-mid sized firms were just back to work from Lunar New Years holidays; Small-mid sized firms are majority sample of survey, which could lead flash PMI to a mis-representation of economic activity in China - (CN) PBoC: China 2013 eastern region social financing CNY9.04T v CNY7.65T in 2011 - annual regional financing report - (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Abenomics does not have a military purpose; Balance of trade affected by imports increase - (JP) BOJ member Morimoto: Japan growth to exceed potential despite sales tax hike; Sees strong probability of meeting 2% inflation target from H2 of 2014 - (JP) Japan nuclear regulators to provide safety review in weeks - Kyodo News - (JP) Japan Bankers Association Chairman: "Beginning to see good numbers" in terms of growing appetite for business loans - Nikkei - (KR) According to one survey, over 62% are satisfied with South Korea Pres Park's handling of the govt - Korean press - (KR) Bank of Korea (BOK): South Korea bankruptcies in Jan rose to 88 from 68 in Dec, which was a 6-month low - Korean press - (KR) South Korea Ministry of Finance: To monitor spike in yuan and other fx currency deposits for potential risks - (AU) Australia Treasurer Hockey: Reiterates G20 to discuss impact of US Fed taper - (SG) Singapore Central Bank (MAS) : Monetary policy at appropriate setting, remains unchanged; Unchanged view for 2014 inflation - (TH) Thailand Central Bank Gov Prasarn: Thailand has policy space, current rate accommodative; Not worried about Fed tapering impact - (US) Fed's Williams (dove, FOMC non-voter): Bar is high to halt winddown of bond purchases; Fed needs to revise forward guidance system - (UR) Follow up: Ukraine President Yanukovych: Govt, Opposition have agreed on truce - financial press
***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -2.2%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.6%, Shanghai Composite +0.7%, Hang Seng -1.1%, Mar S&P500 -0.4% at 1,818, Apr gold -0.6% at $1,312, Mar crude oil -0.2% at $103.07/brl
US markets: - TSLA: Reports Q4 $0.33 v $0.21e, Non-gaap Rev $761M v $679Me; CEO Musk: Confirms held talks with Apple in 2013; declines to provide details of conversation - conf call comments; +12.6% afterhours - SWY: Reports Q4 $0.53(adj) v $0.46e, R$11.31B v $11.5Be; Confirms company is holding discussions regarding possible sale; +3.6% afterhours - EQIX: Reports Q4 $0.91 v $0.78e, R$564.7M v $563Me; +2.3% afterhours - ALL: Increases quarterly dividend by 12% to $0.28/shr; Launches $2.5B common stock repurchase program (11% of market cap); +0.7% afterhours - GPS: Raises minimum hourly rate for US employees to $9.00/hr; effective immediately; flat afterhours - MAR: Reports Q4 $0.49 v $0.50e, R$3.22B v $3.29Be; -0.1% afterhours - CAR: Reports Q4 $0.15 v $0.12e, R$1.85B v $1.83Be; -1.0% afterhours - TX: Reports Q4 $0.64 v $0.61e, R$2.12B v $2.09Be; -2.0% afterhours - FB: To acquire WhatsApp mobile messaging service for about $16B - filing; -2.7% afterhours - MM: Reports Q4 $0.08 v -$0.04e, R$97M v $97.8Me; -10.7% afterhours - ONTX: Phase 3 ONTIME Trial of Rigosertib in Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) did not meet the primary endpoint; -35.6% afterhours
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Super Retail Group SUL.AU +3.6% (H1 results); Sydney Airport SYD.AU -0.1% (Jan traffic results); Shun Ho Technology Holdings 219.HK -6.0% (FY13 results); SEEK Ltd SEK.AU +2.1% (H1 results) - Financials: Western Securities 002673.CN +1.1% (prelim FY13 results); COL Capital Ltd 383.HK +32.0% (positive profit alert) - Materials: Alumina Ltd AWC.AU -1.0% (FY13 results) - Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU -2.3% (H1 results); China Petrochemical Sinopec 600028.CN +10.0% (restructuring plans) - Industrials: Leighton Holdings +5.2% (FY13 results); Shanghai International Airport 600009.CN +1.6% (Jan traffic results); Toyota Motor 7203.JP -1.0% (no deal reached with steelmakers) - Technology: Tencent 700.HK -2.3%, NHN 035420.KR -7.9% (Facebook acquisition of WhatsApp) - Healthcare: Acrux Ltd ACR.AU +3.8% (H1 results) - Utilities: TEPCO 9501.JP -2.4% (detects leak)
Now the Message Is a Facebook Medium WhatsApp Shows That for Facebook, Size Really Matters
Under the hood of Facebook's FB +1.13% whopping $19 billion deal to buy WhatsApp is a simple conjecture—that size really matters.
At least that is the best that could be gleaned from Facebook co-founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg during a call to discuss the surprise deal announced after the market's close Wednesday. He was pressed several times by analysts to share his thoughts on how to make money with a service that currently charges less than $1 a year to users. In response, Mr. Zuckerberg kept coming back to his projection that WhatsApp's user base eventually will hit the one-billion mark. That would make it "incredibly powerful," he said.
FCC Tries Again to Stop Web Traffic Slowdowns Target CEO Struggles to Contain Giant Cybertheft How to Try Bitcoin Without Losing Your Shirt Four Tablets That Want to Replace Your Work Laptop Investors will have to take that on faith for now, as WhatsApp has about 450 million users globally. The company has succeeded in building a powerful mobile-messaging platform that spans the various platforms that include iPhone, Android, Windows and BlackBerry. That is a tempting business for Facebook, which also is working to make its offerings ubiquitous across all mobile devices.
And the company has made clear that it isn't looking to simply get every one of those services tied into its flagship social network. This is wise, given that not all wireless customers find the main Facebook service appealing or useful.
Picking up Instagram was a good way for Facebook to tap into a different user base, though even that deal's $1 billion price tag gave investors pause.
In one sense, the WhatsApp deal might not look as expensive as its eye-popping headline number suggests. The combined price of $19 billion represents about $42 per user compared with about $30 per user in the Instagram deal—based on the value of Facebook's shares at the time of that deal. And Facebook's current market cap values its own user base at around $140 per user. On the basis of the price paid per user as a percentage of a Facebook user, the WhatsApp deal is actually at a lower rate than Instagram.
However, Instagram and Facebook users are valued essentially as potential eyeballs for advertising. By contrast, Mr. Zuckerberg and WhatsApp chief Jan Koum on the deal call both ruled out advertising as a way to generate revenue from WhatsApp.
The company clearly sees its opportunity in the large base of customers who pay billions of dollars each month to wireless carriers for texting.
It could take years, though, to generate a return through this strategy. And both Facebook and WhatsApp executives said they weren't interested in monetizing the messaging service in the near term. That is certainly bold given Facebook is shelling out about a third of its cash on hand for the deal—along with enough stock to dilute current shareholders by nearly 8%.
The risk for Facebook is that the deal ends up being more like eBay's $2.6 billion acquisition of Skype in 2005, which was done at about $48 per Skype user. Growth wasn't the problem for the Internet telephony company. Rather, it never fit with eBay's e-commerce service and the company was forced to write down most of the price two years later before selling a majority stake to Silver Lake in 2009.
Mr. Zuckerberg says that he is playing the long game by doing this deal with WhatsApp. His investors have no choice but to play along—or get out.
Peltz's Trian Fund Renews Push for PepsiCo Split
Dissatisfied With Company's Efforts, Shareholder Again Urges Breakup of Beverage and Snacks Units Nelson Peltz's Trian Fund Management LP is renewing its campaign to split up PepsiCo Inc. PEP -1.38%
The activist shareholder backed off in recent months as PepsiCo's management completed what the company called an "exhaustive" strategic review. The results, unveiled last week, didn't satisfy Mr. Peltz. While PepsiCo said it would boost dividends and stock buybacks by 35% this year, it stayed firm on largely conducting business as usual.
Turning up the heat, Trian sent a 37-page letter to PepsiCo's board of directors Wednesday outlining why it still thinks the snack and drink behemoth should spin off its struggling beverage business.
Trian, which says it owns roughly $1.2 billion in PepsiCo stock it amassed last year, also informed PepsiCo directors it will begin meeting with shareholders "immediately" and might conduct public shareholder forums as it tries to galvanize investor support for a breakup of the maker of Lay's potato chips and Pepsi-Cola.
Nelson Peltz AP
"If the plan is the status quo, that's an unacceptable plan," Mr. Peltz said in an interview.
PepsiCo said in a statement Wednesday night that management and the board "have spoken clearly" against a split and remain fully aligned. "Our focus is on delivering results for our shareholders, not new, costly distractions that will harm shareholder interests," it added in response to Trian's letter.
PepsiCo directors told Mr. Peltz in a meeting late last year that the board backed management's opposition to a split, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trian published a "white paper" last July urging PepsiCo—which has a stock market capitalization of $118 billion and booked $66 billion in revenue last year—to spin off its underperforming beverage business and acquire Mondelez International Inc. MDLZ +0.20% to create a global snacks powerhouse.
Mr. Peltz halted his merger push last month after failing to gain traction but secured a board seat at Mondelez, whose brands include Oreo cookies and Trident gum. Until now, he has also failed to win enough support to split up PepsiCo, whose brands also include Quaker oatmeal, Tropicana juice and Gatorade sports drinks.
But the influential investor is betting more PepsiCo shareholders will join him if the company's beverage business keeps losing market share to rivals like Coca-Cola Co. PepsiCo said last week its beverage volume rose 1% in the fourth quarter, compared with 3% for snacks. Operating profit at its troubled Americas beverage unit fell 10% as North American soda volumes dropped by a mid-single-digit percentage.
In its letter to PepsiCo directors Wednesday, a copy of which was reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, Trian said PepsiCo has underperformed peers in stock price, operating margins and earnings growth. It calculated that since Chief Executive Indra Nooyi took over in October 2006, PepsiCo shares have a total return including dividends of about 47%, less than half that of Coke and the broader index of consumer staple stocks.
"We believe the best way to ensure improved performance at PepsiCo is to separate global snacks and beverages, putting the future of each business in the hands of empowered and focused management," the letter states.
Mrs. Nooyi has repeatedly said PepsiCo's beverages—which generated 48% of company revenue last year—give the company critical leverage around the globe, lowering costs and increasing clout with retailers.
Separating snacks and drinks "loses significant synergies," Mrs. Nooyi told analysts in a conference call last week. She added "there wasn't a stone" unturned during management's "exhaustive" yearlong strategic review, which included consultants and bankers.
But Trian says the company's faster-growing and more profitable snacks business has been hamstrung by subsidizing beverages.
It also says PepsiCo has made several missteps in its beverage business to cede ground to Coke, which has been more nimble in introducing new products in recent years.
Mr. Peltz also says Mrs. Nooyi told him last fall that PepsiCo made a "mistake" in buying its two largest U.S. bottlers in 2010 but that she had made the move because the bottling system was in "disarray."
PepsiCo paid $7.8 billion for the two bottlers.
Trian says it isn't pushing for the ouster of Mrs. Nooyi, who is also PepsiCo's chairman. "This is not about Indra Nooyi. This is about the structure of the company," Ed Garden, Trian's chief investment officer, said Wednesday.
Breaking up companies has been a common theme for activist shareholders recently, who have targeted ever-larger companies for such pushes. This year activists are also seeking to split Dow Chemical Co. and eBay Inc., though the companies are resisting such suggestions.
Many companies are rebuffing the pushes to split and arguing that being bigger brings cost savings and helps customer relationships. Moody's Investors Service, a credit-ratings firm, has raised questions that several suggested splits could put separated companies at risk of having too much debt.
Trian has been among the activists most successful in splintering conglomerates and has been long associated with maneuverings of food and beverage companies in particular.
Trian regularly argues that separating management teams can force them to improve operations or lose to rivals.
Mr. Peltz agitated at Cadbury PLC and pushed it to separate Dr Pepper Snapple into a separate company in 2008, a split that came years after his own company had sold Snapple to Cadbury.
Then, Cadbury was bought by Kraft Inc. in 2010, only to have Trian and other shareholders pressure Kraft into splitting in half in 2011. The Kraft split created Mondelez.
In 2006, Trian waged a heated proxy fight, and won board seats, at ketchup giant H.J. Heinz Co., which last year sold to private-equity firm 3G Capital and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc.
Trian is also pointing to Pepsi's past spinning off what's now Yum Brands Inc. as evidence breaking up can work.
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