>>> What to look at today

US Markets closed lower after a less dovish than anticipated FOMC statement; Most notable changes included a dropped warning that tight financial could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market conditions; FOMC also acknowledged some slowdown in the housing space and dropped the comment that mortgage rates have risen...FB slightly higher after better numbers (FB+0.7%)...VIX @13.65...Brazil-0.67...BOJ offered a minimal policy statement ahead of the release of semiannual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, voting unanimously to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70T yen - its standard policy setting and as widely expected. Separately out of Japan, Manufacturing PMI hit 54.2 vs 52.5 -the highest reading since May 2010. The data signaled that the latest expansion was largely demand driven and apparently unimpeded by PM Abe's confirmation of sales tax hike". Nikkei -1.2%...China central bank conducted reverse repo operations again, injecting liquidity in both available opportunities for open market operations. PBoC did CNY16B in 14-day reverse repos for the day and CNY29.1B total for the week -the first weekly net injection after 2 weeks of net drain..Shanghai -0.80

Eur$ 1.3697 S&P Fut -0.34% European index -0.45%

Keep an eye on : - ABI BB : AB InBev 3Q Adj. Ebitda $4.66b; Est. $4.47, 3Q Adj. Ebitda Beats, Organic Rev. Growth Misses - ACS SM : Sacyr, ACS Sell Stakes in Seville Metro Manager to Globalvia - AF FP : Air France Sees 2014 Ebitda at Bottom of Targeted Range - ALT FP : Q3 Rev €395 +15% - ALU FP : Alcatel 3Q Operating Profit Beats, Expects to Exceed Cost Target - BAYN GY : Bayer 3Q Ebitda Ex-Items Beats Ests.; Repeats 2013 Group Goals - BNP FP : BNP Paribas 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates; CIB Pretax In Line - BN FP : Danone, TPG in Talks to Buy Tirumala Milk, Economic Times Says - BOSS GY : Hugo Boss 3Q Adj. Ebitda In Line With Ests., Rev. Misses - EVK GY : Evonik 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates, Confirms 2013 Outlook - F IM : Fiat Remains Heavily Cash Bleeding, Kept at Reduce at Nomura - GEA GR : GEA Group 3Q Operating Ebit Beats; Confirms Full-Year Forecasts - GEBN VX : Geberit 3Q Sales, Ebitda Ahead; Construction Challenging in 4Q - LHA GY : Lufthansa 3Q Rev. Misses Est., Reiterates FY Outlook - LONN VX : Lonza 3Q In-Line; 2013 Capex to Remain Below CHF250m - IAM FP : Maroc Telecom 9 Mos Revenue Down 4.7% Y/Y - NOK1V FH : Nokia Wins Sprint TDD LTE Roll-Out Deal, Displacing Ericsson - NOVOD DC : Novo Nordisk 3Q Victoza Rev. Misses Est.; Plans Stk Split - NRE1V FH : Nokian Renkaat 3Q EPS, Net Match Ests.; Sees Pricing Challenges - OR FP : L’Oreal 3Q LFL Sales Misses Est.; 2013 Goals Confirmed,May Slide as Revenue Misses Estimates on North America - OR FP : Shiseido Says It May Sell More of Its Non-Core Businesses - RAND NA Randstad Says CEO Noteboom Replaced by Van Den Broek Feb. 28 - REC BB : Recticel 3Q Sales EU239.1 Mln vs Restated EU251.9 Mln - RIG2 GR : Gedeon Richter 3Q Net Rises 26%, Beats Estimate - RXL FP : Rexel 3Q Sales In Line With Ests.; Confirms Full Yr Targets - SRG IM : Snam Still Offering Appealing Defensive Profile, BofAML Says - STMN SW : Straumann 3Q Rev. CHF155.2m Misses Est.; Affirms 2013 Forecast - SUBC NO : Technip, Subsea7 Win Tullow Contracts for Ghana Offshore Project - TEC FP : Technip 3Q Net EU150m vs Est. EU171m; Cuts Subsea Profit Targets - TEC FP : Technip, Subsea7 Win Tullow Contracts for Ghana Offshore Project - TEL NO : Telenor 3Q Sales In Line W/ Est.; Lowers FY Revenue Guidance - FP FP : Total 3Q Adj. Net EU2.72b Matches Est.; Div. EU059/Share In Line - UBSN VX : Abu Dhabi to Buy UBS Paris, Lyon Buildings for EU750M: Figaro - VWS DC : Vestas Turbine Catches Fire; 2 Dead, Ekstra Bladet Reports - WCH GY : Wacker Chemie 3Q Ebitda, Sales Miss Estimates, Confirms Forecast

>>> Brokers Up & Down

Up

*CLARIANT RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT SOCGEN *GRAFTON RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG *HENKEL RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES *TRAVIS PERKINS RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG

Down

*DEUTSCHE BOERSE CUT TO REDUCE VS BUY AT KEPLER *ENI VUT TO NEUTRAL AT MACQUARIE *IBERDROLA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN *LONDON MINING CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN *L’OREAL CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES *NICE SYSTEMS CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS *STATOIL CUT TO SELL VS HOLD AT NORDEA

PT Change

*Buzzi Unicem PT Raised to EU11.5 vs EU10 at Bernstein *FERREXPO PT CUT TO 250P VS 290P AT CANTOR; KEPT AT BUY *FIAT PT CUT TO EU5.3 VS EU6.1 AT MEDIOBANCA; KEPT AT NEUTRAL *Generali PT Raised to EU20 vs EU18.3 at JPMorgan *Impregilo PT Raised to EU5 vs EU4 at Kepler Cheuvreux *Italcementi PT Raised to EU5.6 vs EU4.8 at Bernstein *L’Oreal PT Cut to EU136 vs EU138 at Raymond James

Initiation

Slovak’s Grafobal to Start Trading Gas in Poland, Puls Says *IMTECH RATED HOLD AT ING, WAS UNDER REVIEW

Country Sector Stock Call

*ENI REMOVED FROM CONVICTION BUY LIST AT MACQUARIE *Fiat Remains Heavily Cash Bleeding, Kept at Reduce at Nomura *Snam Still Offering Appealing Defensive Profile, BofAML Says

>>> Asia Update

Asian Market Update: FOMC and RBNZ less dovish than expected; China injects liquidity into money markets for 2nd consecutive session

***Observations/Insights*** - USD firmed up and US fixed income sold off late in the US session after a less dovish than anticipated FOMC statement; Most notable changes included a dropped warning that tight financial could slow the pace of improvement in the economy and labor market conditions; FOMC also acknowledged some slowdown in the housing space and dropped the comment that mortgage rates have risen. - RBNZ policy statement was little changed from prior month but also contained some telling revisions; Of particular interest, RBNZ dropped the passage that it expects OCR to remain unchanged in 2013, potentially paving the way to an even more hawkish statement or even a rate hike in December; RBNZ also no longer saw growth in China and Australia as slowing; Finally, RBNZ noted Q3 GDP would be more than 3% vs prior forecast of 3%. - BOJ offered a minimal policy statement ahead of the release of semiannual Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, voting unanimously to increase monetary base at annual pace of 60-70T yen - its standard policy setting and as widely expected. Separately out of Japan, Manufacturing PMI hit 54.2 vs 52.5 - the highest reading since May 2010. Markit economist said "October saw operating conditions in the Japanese manufacturing industry improve at the sharpest pace for over three years, driven by a surge in new orders... The data signaled that the latest expansion was largely demand driven and apparently unimpeded by PM Abe's confirmation of sales tax hike". - China central bank conducted reverse repo operations again, injecting liquidity in both available opportunities for open market operations. PBoC did CNY16B in 14-day reverse repos for the day and CNY29.1B total for the week - the first weekly net injection after 2 weeks of net drain. - US Treasury's semiannual currency report again declined to name China as currency manipulator, instead shifting more focus to Germany and its large current account surplus contributing to deflationary pressure in the rest of the EZ. In addition, the Treasury said it would monitor Japan's FX policy and also deemed Korean Won undervalued by 2-8%.

***Economic Data*** - (NZ) RESERVE BANK OF NEW ZEALAND (RBNZ) LEAVES OFFICIAL CASH RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.50% (AS EXPECTED) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 1.4% V 1.5% PRIOR (2nd consecutive increase) - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND OCT ANZ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 53.2 V 54.1 PRIOR; ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 47.1 V 45.3 PRIOR - (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 7.3% V 6.5% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT BUILDING APPROVALS M/M: 14.4% V 2.8%E (16-month high); Y/Y: 18.6% V 1.2%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 IMPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 6.1% V 3.5%E (19-quarter high); EXPORT PRICE INDEX Q/Q: 4.2% V 3.3%E - (AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.3% V 0.4%E; Y/Y: 3.3% V 3.4%E - (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) POLICY STATEMENT: REITERATES TO INCREASE MONETARY BASE AT ANNUAL PACE OF ¥60-70T (as expected) >- (JP) JAPAN OCT MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 54.2 V 52.5 PRIOR (highest reading since May 2010) - (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥1.04T in foreign bonds last week (3rd straight week of net purchases) vs bought net ¥1.41T in prior week; Foreign Investors sold net ¥8.0B in Japan stocks v bought net ¥297.8B in prior week - (JP) JAPAN SEPT LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: +0.1% V -0.4%E - (TW) TAIWAN Q3 PRELIM GDP Y/Y: 1.6% V 2.6%E - (SG) SINGAPORE Q3 PRELIMIN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 1.8% V 2.1%E - (SG) SINGAPORE SEPT MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 15.3% V 15.7% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 7.5% V 7.1% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE SEPT BANK LOANS AND ADVANCES Y/Y: 15.7% V 15.4% PRIOR - (SG) SINGAPORE SEPT CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (SGD): 19.8M V 19.2M PRIOR; CREDIT CARD BILLINGS: 3.4B V 3.4B PRIOR - (PH) PHILIPPINES SEPT BANK LENDING Y/Y: 14.6% V 13.0% PRIOR; BANK LENDING NET OF RRPS Y/Y: 15.8% V 14.2% PRIOR - (PH) PHILIPPINES SEPT BANK LENDING Y/Y: 14.6% V 13.0% PRIOR; BANK LENDING NET OF RRPS Y/Y: 15.8% V 14.2% PRIOR - (UK) UK OCT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -11 V -8E (first sequential decline in 6 months)

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies***

- (CN) PBoC to conduct CNY16B in 14-day reverse repos (second consecutive liquidity injection); Injects CNY29.1B this week v drained CNY58B last week (first net injection in 3 weeks)

- USD firmed up across the board following the less dovish than expected FOMC. EUR/USD fell to a 1-week low below 1.37, GBP/USD fell to 2-week low around $1.60, AUD/USD hit 2-week lows below 0.9450, and USD/JPY rose to 2-week highs above 98.70. AUD did rebound later in the session to trade above the $0.95 level, boosted by much higher than expected building approvals data. NZD/USD was also initiall hit by FOMC, briefly fally below 0.82 - a 4-week low - before rising above 0.8270 in the aftermath of a hawkish RBNZ statement.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China may approve free trade zones for Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, Macau after plenary meeting - Chinese press - (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1425 v 6.1412 prior setting (weakest Yuan setting since Oct 17) - (CN) China big four banks new loans CNY93B from Oct 1-27th - press

- (JP) Japan PM aide Honda: Wage gains required for Abenomics; companies should increase wages by more than 1% for 2014 - (JP) Japan, US plan to unify nuclear evaluation standards by 2018 - Japanese press - (JP) Survey finds Japan Q3 GDP at +1.4% - Kyodo News

- (US) US Treasury semi-annual currency report: German nominal current account surplus larger than China in 2012; Does not designate China or any nation as FX manipulator

***Equities*** Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.2%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi -0.7%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Dec S&P500 -0.3% at 1,755, Dec gold -0.8% at $1,338, Dec crude oil -0.3% at $96.53/brl

US markets: - WTW: Reports Q3 $1.07 v $0.84e, R$393.9M v $387Me; suspends dividend; -16.0% afterhours >- JDSU: Reports Q1 $0.13 v $0.12e, R$429M v $424Me; -7.9% afterhours - SPWR: Reports Q3 $0.44 v $0.24e, R$657.1M v $591Me; -5.0% afterhours - MANT: Reports Q3 $0.48 v $0.52e, R$567M v $587Me; Cuts FY13 guidance; -3.9% afterhours - MET: Reports Q3 $1.34 v $1.36e, R$16.9B v $16.8Be; -3.1% afterhours - V: Reports Q4 $1.85 v $1.85e, R$2.97B v $3.02Be, $5B share buyback program (5% of market cap); -3.0% afterhours - SBUX: Reports Q4 $0.63 v $0.60e, R$3.80B v $3.81Be; Increases dividend; -2.5% afterhours - MAR: Reports Q3 $0.52 v $0.45e, R$3.16B v $3.06Be; -0.9% afterhours - CSC: Reports Q2 $0.93 v $0.82e, R$3.19B v $3.35Be; -0.2% afterhours

- FB: Reports Q3 $0.25 v $0.18e, R$2.02B v $1.90Be; flat afterhours

- ALL: Reports Q3 $1.53 v $1.37e, R$8.47B v $7.38Be; +0.1% afterhours - CYH: Reports Q3 $0.04 (incl $0.65 reserve) v $0.69e, R$3.22B v $3.26Be; +0.1% afterhours - CAR: Reports Q3 $1.48 adj v $1.55e, R$2.40B v $2.35Be; +0.2% afterhours - CROX: Reports Q3 $0.18 v $0.18e, R$288.5M v $292Me; +0.5% afterhours - ATML: Announces $300M stock buyback increase (10.6% of market cap); +1.8% afterhours - HBI: Reports Q3 $1.23 v $1.14e, R$1.19B v $1.24Be; +3.5% afterhours - EXPE: Reports Q3 $1.43 v $1.35e, R$1.40B v $1.38Be; +18.8% afterhours - ZLTQ: Reports Q3 -$0.08 v -$0.21e, R$29.5M v $21.1Me; +37.8% afterhours

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer discretionary: Panasonic Corporation 6752.JP +3.5% (confirms staff relocation plans); Suning Appliance Co Ltd 002024.CN -6.8% (Q3 results); Qantas Airways Ltd QAN.AU -2.4% (increases share in Jetstar Japan) - Consumer staples: Woolworths Limited WOW.AU +0.7% (Q1 results) - Industrials: SAIC Motor 600104.CN +0.4% (Q3 results); Nippon Yusen 9101.JP +2.8% (H1 results); Toyota Industries 6201.JP +0.4% (H1 results); Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha 9107.JP +1.3% (H1 results) - Materials: Marubeni Corp 8002.JP -1.0% (construction plans); Daido Steel 5471.JP -6.5% (H1 results) - Financials: China Minsheng Banking Corp 1988.HK -2.7% (Q3 results); AgBank 1288.HK +0.3% (Q3 results); ICBC 1398.HK -1.7% (Q3 results); Bank of Communications 3328.HK -2.3% (Q3 results); Bank of China 3988.HK flat (Q3 results); Hua Xia Bank Co 600015.CN -1.4% (Q3 results); CapitaLand Ltd CAPL.SG -1.3% (Q3 results); National Australia Bank Ltd NAB.AU -2.2% (FY results); CITIC Securities 600030.CN -1.7% (Q3 results); Shenyin Wanguo Ltd 218.HK +8.1% (merger speculation); Mitsui & Co Ltd 8031.JP -0.6% (power project) - Technology: Qingdao Haier Co Ltd 600690.CN +0.4% (Q3 results) - Healthcare: Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co Ltd 2196.HK -1.5% (Q3 results)

FT : Facebook admits to losing young teens

Facebook admits to losing young teens

Concerns that teenagers could be bored with Facebook and that its advertising growth may be unsustainable threatened to overshadow strong quarterly results which showed a surge in mobile advertising. Shares in Facebook initially jumped as much as 14 per cent in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the company said mobile advertising accounted for almost half of the social network’s ad revenue. But the stock rapidly lost all of its gains after the company said the number of teens on the site was stable but it saw a decrease among younger teen users, and warned that it would not be increasing adverts in the newsfeed at the same rate in the future. The social networking site beat earnings forecasts by about 30 per cent in the third quarter as advertisers followed users on to mobile and the number of people using Facebook on smartphones soared. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook founder and chief executive, said better targeting of users meant the average user now clicked on an advert once a week. "This is a great sign that people are finding ads useful," he said, adding there was still "a lot of room for improvement". More marketers, big and small, are using Facebook, with more adverts appearing in the mobile feed and more adverts in the newsfeed, rather than the right hand column of the site, and engagement has improved. Earnings per share more than doubled to 25 cents year-on-year, on a diluted basis, higher than the consensus forecast of 19 cents. The company generated $2bn in revenue, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.9bn. GAAP net income for the quarter was $425m, compared with a net loss of $59m for the same period last year. Expectations were already high after a near 40 per cent rise in Facebook’s share price during the quarter, and several analysts had raised their price targets in anticipation of strong growth in mobile advertising. Investors embraced the stock in recent months after the company demonstrated growth in mobile advertising, which had weighed on the shares since last year’s initial public offering. Several analysts had raised their price targets for the stock on the strength of the mobile advertising growth, the expansion of video ads and Instagram. But some analysts have also been concerned that Facebook was going out of fashion with teenagers, who are more keen on rivals such as Twitter and Snapchat, as well as Facebook-owned Instagram. David Ebersman, Facebook’s chief financial officer, said there was a lack of reliable data about the number of teens on the site, as they were less likely to be honest about their age. Attempting to assuage concerns about the lack of growth among teen users, he said: "We remain close to fully penetrated among teens in the US." However, he also warned that growth in the number of adverts in the newsfeed, which had been a "meaningful driver of revenue", would not continue at the same rate in the future. Mobile revenue rose in the third quarter to reach 49 per cent of total advertising revenue – up from just 14 per cent in the same quarter last year. Mobile monthly active users were 45 per cent higher than the year before at 874m, and more than 500m people used Facebook on their mobile devices each day on average during September. Total monthly active users rose 18 per cent year-on-year to 1.2bn, and daily active users rose 25 per cent in the same time period to 728m. Average revenue per user rose to $1.72. Facebook did not give guidance for the full year but analysts had forecast 2013 earnings per share of 73 cents on total annual revenue of $7.4bn. After the initial surge of as much as 14 per cent, the stock was down almost 3 per cent at $47.67 after the conference call. This compares with an IPO price of $38 in May last year and a subsequent low of under $18 in September last year.

FT : Batista seeks OGX bankruptcy protection

Batista seeks OGX bankruptcy protection

Brazilian tycoon Eike Batista triggered Latin America’s biggest corporate default on Wednesday when he filed for bankruptcy protection for his oil exploration and production company OGX. The filing signals the demise of one of the greatest fortunes built during the emerging markets boom of the first decade of this century, and of a businessman whose brash ambition symbolised the rise of Brazil as a new economic power. The judicial reorganisation, which follows the collapse of voluntary talks with creditors over the company’s $5bn in debts, is also expected to increase the chances that Brazil’s oil regulator could confiscate OGX’s remaining oil exploration blocks. "The company could become bankrupt very quickly if it has no ability to sustain its own operations," said Sam Aguirre of FTI Consulting Brasil, a corporate debt restructuring group. With a fortune valued at $34.5bn at his peak, Mr Batista captured more than any other tycoon the enormous wealth and optimism generated in Brazil and other emerging markets until the onset of the eurozone crisis in 2011. He built an empire of start-up companies in oil, mining and logistics virtually from scratch in less than a decade and was a star on capital markets, raising $3.6bn in international bond financing for OGX before it had even entered production. The plan soured, however, when OGX repeatedly missed production targets before admitting in the middle of this year that its only producing wells had flopped and would be closed. Under Brazil’s bankruptcy law, OGX will have to provide a detailed recovery plan within 60 days of a judge accepting the filing. The company’s creditors will then have 30 days to declare their opinion about the plan after which the judge can call an assembly of lenders to vote on the proposal. If the plan is approved, the company will have to implement it within two years of the original filing date – or in OGX’s case, October 2015 – or face liquidation. If creditors rejected the plan, the company would be liquidated straight away, lawyers said. Complicating the bankruptcy procedure for Mr Batista, however, is that Brazil’s oil regulator, ANP, has the right to confiscate fields from bankrupt concession holders. OGX has said in restructuring documents it has enough cash to continue operations until the end of this year and on Wednesday appointed a new exploration director in an apparent attempt to convince regulators that it was still functioning. But the company’s hopes of survival will be severely limited by the expected reluctance of investors or lenders to risk any more money in the venture. New loans provided to a company that is undergoing what is known in the country as a judicial recovery process are generally required to be written off by Brazilian banks, and, as such, banks have little incentive to make such loans.

Reckitt Heroin Addiction Treatment Seen Luring Shire: Real M&A

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Reckitt Heroin Addiction Treatment Seen Luring Shire: Real M&A 2013-10-31 00:00:01.3 GMT

(For a Real M&A column news alert: SALT REALMNA <GO>.)

By Trista Kelley and Matthew Boyle Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc’s heroin addiction treatment could tempt drugmakers from Shire Plc to Actavis Plc to bid for the company’s pharmaceuticals unit. Shire has been on the hunt for deals to ease reliance on its best-seller Vyvanse for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. The Dublin-based drugmaker could be a logical buyer for the unit because it has managed competition with generics before and is adept at handling complex U.S. rules to curb illicit use of prescription medicines, Liberum Capital Ltd. said. While generic variants of Reckitt Benckiser’s Suboxone were introduced this year, the drug still dominates the U.S. market and a new injectable treatment is under development. Shire surged to a record this week, increasing its ability to finance an acquisition with stock, and also has more cash on hand than 99 percent of specialty drug companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Generic-drug makers Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. and Actavis also may be interested in the RB Pharmaceuticals unit based on their experience extracting profits from assets that, like Suboxone, have declining sales, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. said. “There is definitely a lot of future potential in RB Pharma,” said Andrew Wood, an analyst at Bernstein in Singapore. “There must be some pharma companies out there who think that they can do even better, and take it to the next level.”

Weighing Options

Reckitt Benckiser said this month that it’s weighing options for its pharmaceuticals unit, whose main drug Suboxone treats addiction to opioids including heroin. The company, which also makes French’s mustard, Nurofen painkillers and Durex condoms, hasn’t yet hired advisers and said it plans to update investors on the progress of the review next year. Andraea Dawson-Shepherd, a spokeswoman at Slough, U.K.- based Reckitt Benckiser, declined to comment on the review process. Since 2010, RB Pharma has offered Suboxone in a film-strip format, which has captured more than two-thirds of the $1.7 billion market in the U.S. While the film version is patent- protected until at least 2020, it’s grappling with increased competition. Zubsolv, a tablet from Orexo AB, won U.S. regulatory approval in July and began selling in September. Plus, two generic Suboxone tablets hit the market in March.

Not Core

RB Pharma is “a fantastic business, but it’s not core to the company,” Reckitt Benckiser Chief Executive Officer Rakesh Kapoor said in a phone interview on Oct. 22, when the company announced the review. “I’ve said that several months after the entry of generics we will confirm the resiliency of the film business and the impact of generics. We are now in that phase. Nothing is ruled out.” Analysts including Bernstein’s Wood have advocated for a sale of RB Pharma. The unit, which is also developing an injectable version of Suboxone and a drug for people addicted to cocaine, may fetch 2.95 billion pounds ($4.7 billion) in a sale, according to the average of 11 analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The estimates ranged from as low as 1.5 billion pounds to as high as 4.7 billion pounds. RB Pharma’s 837 million pounds in sales last year accounted for about 9 percent of Reckitt Benckiser’s revenue, and the unit made up 21 percent of operating profit. While competition reduced the division’s sales in the last two quarters, the market for opioid addiction treatment isn’t in decline.

Heroin Use

As of 2011, some 4.2 million Americans had used heroin at least once in their lives, according to the National Institute on Drug Abuse, which estimates that about 23 percent of individuals who use heroin become dependent on it. About 16.5 million people worldwide use opiates, including heroin, according to a report this year from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. Suboxone only treats about 15 percent of the addressable market, Reckitt Benckiser has said. “It appears there is a long runway for further growth,” Bernstein’s Wood said in an e-mail. RB Pharma President Shaun Thaxter told investors last year that Suboxone, which combines a painkiller derived from the opium poppy and a chemical that blunts withdrawal symptoms, could expand sales in Europe and Australia.

Diversification Play

For Shire, adding Suboxone would allow it to reduce its dependence on ADHD treatments. Shire knows how to navigate the complex rules surrounding so-called controlled substances, a category which includes most ADHD pills and opioid-dependency drugs like Suboxone. “Diversifying away from being an ADHD business would be helpful because they have one product being the dominating earnings driver: Vyvanse,” Naresh Chouhan, a London-based analyst at Liberum Capital, said in a phone interview. “They’ve also got a supply chain in place which means the drug won’t end up in the wrong hands.” Shire also has experience winning sales in the face of threats from generics. The company successfully persuaded doctors to switch patients to Vyvanse before the older version Adderall XR lost patent exclusivity in 2009, helping sales of Vyvanse gain last year. “Reckitt’s pharma unit is a declining business and it’s really hard to manage a decline, but Shire has done this before,” Chouhan said.

Deal Firepower

Shire CEO Flemming Ornskov has been scanning the industry for potential targets since taking over at the company in May. Shire has “multi-billion dollar capacity” for deals and is looking in areas including rare disease, neo-natal care, eye care and cancer, management said after reporting earnings last week. Shire has the firepower for acquisitions as its stock reached a record 2,814 pence this week. The company also had $1.69 billion of cash as of Sept. 30, surpassing more than 1,000 other specialty pharmaceutical companies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Only Valeant, Elan Corp. and Allergan Inc. had larger cash piles, the data show. Jessica Mann, a spokeswoman for Shire, said the company doesn’t comment on speculation. Other drugmakers including Valeant, which had $2.54 billion of cash as of June 30, and Actavis might be interested buyers because the companies know how to make the most of assets with declining sales, said Ronny Gal, a New York-based analyst at Bernstein who covers pharmaceutical companies. Actavis is one of the companies that have come out with a generic Suboxone tablet.

‘Good Opportunity’

“It’s very simple,” Gal said. “If you’re paying less for the asset -- even if it’s declining -- than you can get out it, it’s very much a good opportunity.” A representative for Parsippany, New Jersey-based Actavis declined to comment, while a phone call and e-mail to a representative for Bridgewater, New Jersey-based Valeant wasn’t returned. While RB Pharma may attract pharmaceutical companies looking for products to add to their lineups, other drugmakers may be more likely to pursue medicines with more growth potential. “Most companies are not interested in declining assets,” Gal said. Shire CEO Ornskov said the company’s focus is on “growing assets,” when asked last week about its interest in the RB Pharma unit.

Dominant Player

Suboxone still dominates the opioid-dependency treatment market, and new medicines in development such as the injectable version of the drug could help keep it in the lead. With generics entering the market, a pharmaceutical company may be best able to contend with the threat, said Eamonn Ferry, a London-based analyst at Exane BNP Paribas. “Reckitt is not a pharma company, that’s not where their expertise is,” Ferry said in a phone interview. “It’s not in their core DNA to manage products that have been subjected to generics. It may well be better in the hands of a pharmaceutical company, and you could say the same about the pipeline.”

For Related News and Information: Reckitt Heroin-Addiction Unit Review Points to Possible Sale NSN MV2CUN07SXKZ <GO> Reckitt to Start Strategic Review of Pharmaceutical Unit NSN MV26X61A74E9 <GO> Reckitt Benckiser Falls on Suboxone Removal: London Mover NSN MPTYLZ6K50YP <GO> Drug patent expirations: DRGEXP <GO> Top health stories: HTOP <GO> Real M&A columns: NI REALMNA <GO> Top deal stories: DTOP <GO> Bloomberg Industries, specialty pharma: BI SPECG <GO>

--With assistance from Brooke Sutherland and Tara Lachapelle in New York, Gaurav Panchal in London and Chiara Remondini in Milan. Editors: Beth Williams, Sarah Rabil

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(Barron's' The Dow's New High: Bull's Last Gasp?

{http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111903648004579167531479364134.html?mod=djemb_dr_h#articleTabs=article}

The Dow's New High: Bull's Last Gasp?

Blue chips have finally joined the rest of the market in record territory, but don't get complacent.

With the Dow Jones Industrial Average setting a record close Tuesday to join many other indexes on new high ground, many analysts see confirmation of a new bull market. Conventional wisdom seems to be that the Standard & Poor's 500 is in a secular, or long-term, bull market now that it has moved above resistance from previous bull-market peaks in 2000 and 2007.

Not so fast.

Calls for the start of a new bull run are a bit misleading because the bull has been running since 2009. Based on several factors, the Dow's breakout may be the manifestation of the last bears giving up and buying. The market may be finally out of fuel—demand—making it vulnerable.

With "everyone" bullish, there is nobody left to buy. Indeed, Carl Swenlin, proprietor of the analysis site DecisionPoint.com, notes that the ratio of assets in bullish Rydex mutual funds to assets in bearish funds and money markets suggests just that. Brendan Conway Tuesday reported that stock mutual-fund inflows were on track to hit levels not seen since 2000. (See Focus on Funds.)

We can argue over the details, but sentiment surveys such as that from the American Association of Individual Investors show levels of enthusiasm not seen for quite some time. While sentiment experts will argue bullishness is not high enough to be of concern, my fear is the number of articles I read espousing just that.

It is no secret that technical indicators are not what they used to be, and we have to now account for social media buzz in determining exactly what "too bullish" really means. It is subjective, but right now in the group of respected traders and money managers I follow on Twitter, few if any are warning about a possible market correction.

Changes in the analysis climate also demand we step back to look at the big picture, away from the fog of the day-to-day news-driven gyrations. Let's start with the S&P 500.

A long-term chart shows the 2000 and 2007 peaks at roughly the same level—1550, in round numbers (see Chart 1). When the index moved above that level in March of this year, it appeared that it had broken out and the secular, or long-term bear market of the past decade was over. And with the index trading at 1769 Wednesday afternoon, there is no doubt that long-term resistance was shattered. It was not just an overshoot based on small market wiggles.

Chart 1

Standard & Poor's 500

But is the S&P 500 the best representative of the market? Even though it contains the lion's share of market value, there are other ways to look at stock-market performance. For example, in my opinion, the Nasdaq scored an important upside breakout 21 months ago in January 2012 (see Chart 2).

Chart 2

>>> US After Hours Summary

After Hours Summary: ZLTQ +27.0%, EXPE +18.6%, ITMN +5.6%, FB +0.7%, WTW-16.6%, SGI -14.8%, V -3.0%, SBUX -2.3% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: ZLTQ +27%, EXPE +18.6%, SPRT +11.3%, FLDM +10.5%, PFPT +10.2%, SSNI +8.7%, ISIL +7.4%, ANIK +6.9%, QUIK +6.9%, ITMN +5.6%, UNTD +5.3%, HDSN +5.1%, WMB +4.9%, PPC +4.8%, SHOR +4.8%, SWKS +4.4%, SKUL +4%, HBI +3.5%, PGTI +3.2%, THOR +3.2%, ARRS +3.1%, PVA +2.6%, TRN +2.3%, FLT +1.7%, ATML +1.2%, MCHP +1.1%, GMED +1.1%, DLLR +1.1%, PRAA +0.9%, ELX +0.8%, FB +0.7%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: - XOMA +9.8% (co announced results from two Phase 2 Studies in XOMA's Gevokizumab proof-of-concept program are very encouraging and compelling), - NRF +2.1% (increased quarterly dividend 5% to $0.21 from $0.20 per share), - FF +1.8% (to replace AOS in the S&P SmallCap 600), - FLT +1.7% (acquired Epyx and NexTraq, terms not disclosed), - PWR +1.3% (increased capacity under credit facility to $1.325 bln), - ATML +1.2% (announced $300 mln addition to stock repurchase program), - MCHP +1.1% (increased quarterly dividend to 35.45 cents per share from 35.4 cents per share)

After Hours Losers: Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: - WTW -16.6%, SGI -14.8%, GLUU -12.9%, OTEX -11.4%, JIVE -9.6%, ROVI -8.5%, JDSU -8.5%, RATE -6.9%, MOH -5.3%, MANT -3.9%, MERU -3.1%, V -3%, SPWR -2.7%, TTS -2.6%, MET -2.6%, SBUX -2.3%, SLRC -2.1%, AXTI -1.8%, CTIC -1.1%, FISH -1.1%, CW -1.1%,VGR -0.9%, CARB -0.9%, CROX -0.7%, RKUS -0.5%, BOOM -0.5%, FICO -0.4%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: - DSCO -8.9% (announced proposed public offering of common stock; size not disclosed), - ALCS -5.4% (announced that the proposal to adopt the merger agreement failed to receive required shareholder vote), - EGAS -4.6% (announces offering of 1,134,155 shares of its common stock, of which 80,000 shares will be sold by the co, 1,006,911 will be sold by the co's Chairman and CEO, and 47,244 shares will be sold by the co's CFO), - WDC -1.7% (announced 10.87 mln share secondary offering by selling shareholder Hitachi), - KORS -1.3% (addition to S&P 500 postponed)

>>> US Notable after hours earnings movers

Notable after hours earnings movers: EXPE +16%, QUIK +13.5%, SPRT+ 12.2%, OTEX -11.4%, WTW -8.2%, ROVI -7.8%

SCANX Companies trading higher after hours following earnings/guidance:

EXPE +16%, QUIK +13.5%, SPRT +12.2%, FB +9.6%, SSNI +6.8%, HBI +5.1%, TRN +4.7%, SPWR +3.6%, SWKS +2.7%, FLT +1.7%, MCHP +1.6% Companies trading lower after hours following earnings/guidance:

OTEX -11.4%, WTW -8.2%, ROVI -7.8%, SGI -6.9%, RATE -6.9%, GLUU -5.5%, RKUS -5.1%, MOH -4.8%, MERU -3.1%, MET -3%, SBUX -3%