>>> Toyota Motor misses on bottom line; beats on top; reaffirms unit sales for F

Toyota Motor misses on bottom line; beats on top; reaffirms unit sales for FY14

Reports Q2 EPS of JPY138.35 vs JPY144.9 CIQ est; revs increased 15% YoY to JPY6.28 trln vs JPY6.24 trln CIQ est. Consolidated vehicle sales for H1 totaled 4,467,761 units, a decrease of 48,425 units.

Regional In Japan, vehicle sales totaled 1,101,206 units, a decrease of 90,724 units compared to the same period last fiscal year. Operating income from Japanese operations increased by 579.1 billion yen to 830.0 billion yen.

In North America, vehicle sales totaled 1,298,044 units, an increase of 37,316 units. Operating income decreased by 20.3 billion yen to 162.3 billion yen, including a loss of 23.2 billion yen of valuation gains/losses from interest rate swaps. Operating income, excluding the impact of valuation gains/losses from interest rate swaps, increased by 31.0 billion yen to 185.5 billion yen.

In Europe, vehicle sales totaled 406,934 units, a decrease of 5,232 units, while operating income increased by 13.3 billion yen to 25.4 billion yen.

In Asia, vehicle sales totaled 779,586 units, a decrease of 60,279 units, while operating income increased by 1.1 billion yen to 195.6 billion yen.

Outlook: Co maintains the estimate it announced in August this year that its consolidated vehicles sales for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2014 will be 9.1 million units. In addition, co forecasts: consolidated net revenue of JPY25 trln vs JPY25.3 trln operating income of JPY2.20 trln net income of JPY1.67 trln Guidance is based on an exchange rate of 97 yen to the U.S. dollar and 130 yen to the euro.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: MSPD +68.4%, SYNC +16.3%, REGI +13%, BEAT +12.2%, BCOR +10.6%, IMPV +8%, MYGN +7.2%, ANV +6.3%, AU +5.9%, YY +5.8%, MKTG +5.6%, ININ +5.5%, DVAX +5.3%, GPOR +5.2%, ING +4.3%, CS +3.6%, CHTP +3.5%, QLTY +3.4%, SALE +3%, BCS +2.9%, SGEN +2.8%, FTR +2.7%, OPEN +2.7%, DDD +2.3%, ALU +2.2%, KW +2.1%, NYMT +1.9%, DB +1.7%, SD +1.7%, WYNN +1.6%, ESV +1.6%, Z +1.4%, RMTI +1.1%, SAN +1%, SREV +0.9%, FOSL +0.7%

Gapping down: TNGO -19.3%, TRNX -12.6%, VIP -11.4%, TSLA -10.2%, ZAGG -8.9%, GEVO -8.4%, MELI -8.1%, CTRP -7.8%, ANF -7.1%, VCLK -6.7%, URS -6.5%, ZLTQ -6.1%, LLNW -5.6%, SZYM -5.3%, QEP -5.3%, MED -5.2%, ARO -4.9%, DVA -4.5%, AEO -4.3%, KND -4.1%, ITMN -3.9%, ENPH -3.6%, SAND -2.8%, JAZZ -2.8%, LYV -2.6%, PZZA -2.3%, VVUS -2.2%, BCC -2%, FOXA -2%, LBTYA -1.7%, BLMN -1.5%, EFC -1.5%, NOW -0.7%, TWO -0.7%

(BFW) German Sept. Factory Orders Rise 3.3% M/m; Est. Rise 0.5% M/m

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German Sept. Factory Orders Rise 3.3% M/m; Est. Rise 0.5% M/m 2013-11-06 11:00:00.2 GMT

By Kristian Siedenburg Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Germany’s Economics Ministry in Berlin reports factory orders today. * Forecast range -2.1% to 2.5% m/m from 37 economists * Factory orders rise 7.9% y/y; est. rise 5.6% y/y * Capital goods orders rise 5.5% m/m * Consumer goods orders rise 2.7% m/m * Intermediate goods orders rise 0.2% m/m * Detailed table: {NXTW NSN MVU7VC1A1I4H <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST <GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW <GO> Germany economic indicators: ECO GE <GO> Economic forecasts for Germany: ECFC DE <GO>

--Editor: Mark Evans

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristian Siedenburg in Vienna at +43-1-513-266011 or ksiedenburg@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Marco Babic at +41-44-224-4112 or mbabic@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Alcatel, Nokia Among Convertibles That May Gain on M&A: Barclays

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Alcatel, Nokia Among Convertibles That May Gain on M&A: Barclays 2013-11-06 10:23:43.633 GMT

By Gaurav Panchal Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barclays highlights convertibles with the greatest potential outright return from a change of control. * Return on some convertibles exceeds that of the comparable equity bid premium, Barclays says in Nov. 4 note * Survey follows 3 bids on convertible names in recent weeks: GSW, Celesio, Alliance Oil * Included in list: * Frontline 4.5% 2015 * Petropavlovsk 4% 2015 * Alcatel 4.25% 2018 * Ingenico 2.75% 2017 * Nokia 5% 2017 * Deutsche Post 0.6% 2019 * Melia Hotels 4.5% 2018 * Shoprite 6.5% 2017 * Seadrill 3.375% 2017 * Essar 4.25% 2016 * CRITERIA: Barclays assumes equity bid premium of 20%, horizon of 6-mo., includes interim coupons, excludes bonds that are close to their call trigger

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

--Editor: Charles Daly

To contact the reporter on this story: Gaurav Panchal in London at +44-20-7392-0511 or gpanchal2@bloomberg.net

(Telegraph) EU opens door to showdown with Germany on trade surplus

EU opens door to showdown with Germany on trade surplus (Ambrose Evans-Prtichard) EC report said Germany’s surplus will narrow slightly from 7pc of GDP this year to 6.6pc in 2014 and 6.4pc in 2015, but this still breaches “macro-imbalances” rules

The European Commission has warned Germany it could face disciplinary action for running excess trade surpluses at the expense of EU partners, joining the US Treasury in criticising Berlin for doing too little to help lift Europe out of its slump. “We will discuss this question next week,” said EU economics chief Olli Rehn after releasing the commission’s Autumn report. The text said Germany’s current account surplus will remain far above tolerable levels into the middle of the decade. Mr Rehn said Berlin had been told by EU leaders at a summit in June that Germany has a duty to help boost demand and “create sustained conditions” for German wage rises. This would help rebalance the EMU system and lift pressure off the crisis states in the South. The report said Germany’s surplus will narrow slightly from 7pc of GDP this year to 6.6pc in 2014 and 6.4pc in 2015, but this still breaches the EU’s new “macro-imbalances” rules. It could ultimately lead to sanctions, with a vote taken by a qualified majority of EU states. Such a dispute would in effect be a court of judgment on Germany by EU peers. While a confrontation is unlikely, the tougher talk from Brussels raises the political temperature in Europe. An attempt to indict Germany would prompt fury in Berlin, where politicians rejected US criticism last week that the country was acting as a free-rider on scarce global demand and creating a “deflationary bias” for the whole world. Berlin has called such attacks “incomprehensible”, insisting that export success helps the whole of Europe and should be prized.

The Commission's report cut the eurozone growth forecast for next year from 1.2pc to 1.1pc, and said a “sudden stop” in emerging markets is now the biggest potential threat to recovery. “It is too early to declare the crisis over. Risks and uncertainty remain elevated,” it said. The report predicted a “subdued recovery” as banks continue to shrink their balance sheets to meet tougher EU rules, curb lending in the process. Unemployment will remain at a record 12.2pc until 2015. “The norm for the eurozone is still pretty dreadful. Even these forecasts are still likely to be too optimistic,” said Jonathan Loynes from Capital Economics. Mr Rehn brushed aside warnings that Europe is sliding into a Japan-style deflation trap, insisting that inflation will rebound after sliding over recent months and stabilise near 1.5pc next year. “Although there is a lot of slack in the economy, the risk of deflation seems remote at the current juncture,” he said. Lars Christensen from Danske Bank said the EU authorities are repeating mistakes made in Japan in the early 1990s when deflation became lodged in the system. “Several eurozone countries are already in outright deflation, and that is making it even harder to deal with banking problems and the debt trajectory. There is no growth in the money supply, so this is going to get worse, not better. "This is just like Japan. The central bank thought money was easy when in fact it was much too tight. But effects could be much worse in Europe because unemployment is so much higher." The commission slashed its growth estimate for Spain from 0.9pc to 0.5pc in 2014, and warned that the structural budget deficit will rise instead of falling, reaching 4.2pc in 2014 and 5.8pc in 2015. This will push public debt to 104pc of GDP. “Things are going from bad to worse and any talk of recovery is woefully misplaced,” said sovereign bond strategist Nicholas Spiro. “What is so shocking is the number of countries where public debt is going above 100pc of GDP.” Slower growth could cause several states to miss their budget deficit targets again, creating pressure for further austerity cuts in a vicious cycle. The EU Fiscal Compact allows some leeway for missing targets but remains rigid. Italy will contract 1.8pc this year, before eking out 0.7 growth in 2014. The turnaround is based on hopes of resurgent investment - from -5.2pc to +2.7pc - a forecast described as “Panglossian” by analysts, given the pervasive credit crunch among small firms. Cyprus is in the eye of the storm, facing economic contraction of 8.7pc this year after its banking collapse, and 3.9pc next year. Investment dropped 19.6pc last year, and will fall 29.5pc this year and 11.9pc in 2014. The report said the new risk is an upset in Asia, Latin America and Africa as the US Federal Reserves prepares to withdraw dollar liquidity from the global financial system. It stated: “The external environment for the EU economy has become more challenging. Growth in some key emerging market economies has slowed down: triggered by the anticipation of less expansive monetary policies in the US. Many emerging markets appear vulnerable to sudden stops of external financing. The over-reliance of the Russian model on commodities does not appear sustainable.” Emerging markets have rebounded from their May to June sell-off. This is chiefly because the Fed has delayed plans to wind down stimulus. This is a reprieve, not a pardon. Trouble could return once the Fed turns hawkish again.

>>> AT&T May Offer a Healthy Premium for Vodafone, Bernstein Says

Vodafone has turnaround potential and AT&T may be willing to pay healthy premium for co., as it now faces credible competition in U.S., Bernstein says in note. • Says Vodafone unlikely to accept offer below 7x 2014E Ebitda; valuing co. at 291p/shr (28% premium), or 276p/shr when factoring in discount on value of AT&T shrs in a deal • Says investment, reorganization required for VOD turnaround shouldn’t be underestimated • Bernstein raises PT on VOD by 9% to 250p; says PT is weighted 75% toward a deal, 25% toward co.’s standalone valuation o Rates VOD market perform • NOTE: AT&T said to be laying groundwork internally for a potential takeover of Vodafone • NOTE: VOD to report 2Q results on Nov. 12

WWD : Kors a $16B Firm; European and Men's Each $1B Opportunity

NEW YORK — Sixteen billion dollars.

That is now the market capitalization of Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. after its shares surged 5.8 percent Tuesday to $79.13 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange following a second-quarter earnings report that had investors cheering.

The company beat Wall Street’s consensus estimates for second-quarter earnings per share and revenues, and raised fiscal 2014 guidance. In intraday trading, shares of Kors rose as high as $80, in comparison with the 52-week low of $46.66 on Nov. 15, 2012.

For the quarter ended Sept. 28, the company posted a 49 percent rise in net income to $145.8 million, or 71 cents a diluted share, from $97.8 million, or 49 cents, last year. Wall Street’s consensus estimate pegged second-quarter EPS at 68 cents.

The company said total revenues rose 38.9 percent to $740.3 million from $532.9 million last year. Wall Street had expected revenues of $725.9 million. Net sales in the period rose 37.9 percent to $707.4 million from $513.1 million, which included a 29.9 percent gain in wholesale net sales to $351.9 million and a retail net sales increase of 46.8 percent to $355.6 million.

Comparable-store sales rose 22.9 percent, representing the company’s 30th consecutive quarter of growth. That was driven in part by 83 net new store openings since the second quarter of last year, with 24 of those stores open in the second quarter of fiscal year 2014. The balance in total revenues was from licensing income, which increased 65.4 percent to $32.9 million. Licensing revenues were driven by strength in Kors’ luxury watch and jewelry businesses.

For the six months, net income rose 62.7 percent to $270.8 million, or $1.32 a diluted share, from $166.5 million, or 83 cents, a year ago. Total revenues rose 45.7 percent to $1.38 billion from $947.8 million.

John D. Idol, chairman and chief executive officer, told analysts during a conference call, “Our exceptional second-quarter results demonstrate Michael Kors’ leading position within the global luxury market.”

He said the company continues to execute on its six key strategies noted in prior conference calls, which include conversion of department store doors globally into branded shops-in-shop, and growing brand recognition in Europe, in which “total revenues grew 101 percent on a 45 percent comparable-sales increase.” He also said that the European market will “achieve revenue growth in excess of $1 billion in the next few years.” Kors’ European business is about $114 million currently.

According to Idol, the company expects a “continuation of strong sales trends in our wholesale business as we convert additional doors to shop-in-shops as they highlight the Michael Kors brand and bring the jet-set environment we offer in retail stores to department stores.”

He noted that the Kors brand has nearly 10 million Facebook fans, compared with just 1.8 million a year ago, and 1.5 million Twitter followers, versus 900,000 last year.

For the third quarter, the company forecast diluted EPS at between 83 cents to 85 cents, with revenues in the range of $845 million to $855 million. For fiscal 2014, the company raised guidance, with diluted EPS estimated at $2.77 to $2.81 on a revenue range of $2.9 billion to $3 billion. That’s up from prior estimates of diluted EPS of $2.67 to $2.69 on a revenue range of $2.8 billion to $2.9 billion when the company posted first-quarter results in August.

Oliver Chen at Citigroup has a “buy” rating on Kors’ stock, noting the brand is one of the few companies “we expect to raise guidance for holiday.”

In addition to expectations for the European business — with an initial focus on the U.K., Germany, France and Italy — Chen said Kors is “likely to hire a global men’s president” to build out the men’s business. Idol said previously that men’s could be a $1 billion opportunity over the next few years.

In contrast, Wells Fargo Securities analyst Paul Lejuez said, “Kors has numerous growth opportunities, which we believe are attractive given the momentum of the brand. However, though we believe Kors business trends remain strong, we do not believe the company is immune to macro factors and this could result in less impressive earnings beats.”

He has a “market perform” rating on the stock, the equivalent of a “hold” as the “stock appears appropriately valued.”

Lejuez noted some positives, which include management’s expectations of normalization of markdown levels, even though that hasn’t happened yet, and a strong fragrance launch in the second quarter, which achieved a “top five rank in the U.S. fragrance category.”

Specialty retail analyst Ike Boruchow at Sterne Agee has a “neutral” rating on shares of Kors: “On the positive side, comps remain 20 percent plus, gross margins were solid [up 150 basis points] and [third-quarter] guidance hit the Street. On the negative side, the [second quarter] beat was the smallest beat as a public company, wholesale growth was below expectations and inventories ended up 45 percent. With the stock back at its highs, we remain sidelined on valuation.”

WWD : Richemont Said Shopping Chloé

LONDON — It looks as if Chloé has joined the list of Richemont brands on potential buyers’ lips.

According to industry sources, Compagnie Financière Richemont is actively shopping Chloé around as part of the ongoing review of the group’s soft luxury portfolio. Meanwhile, private equity investors are putting out feelers to potential managers for the French brand in the event of a sale, according to other industry sources.

Separately, both Shanghai Tang and Dunhill are also open to offers, according to industry sources. A Richemont spokesman declined to comment on Tuesday, and Chloé executives did not respond to a request for comment.

According to sources close to Chloé, it’s business as usual as the brand continues to mark its 60th anniversary with the launch of the book “Chloé: Attitudes” (Rizzoli); a strategic emphasis on the Baylee bag, and plans to recruit high-level managers.

Clare Waight Keller, the brand’s creative director who showed her spring collection in Paris last month, did an encore in Los Angeles on Oct. 29, the French brand’s first runway outing in California’s most populous city.

Ever since Richemont’s chairman Johann Rupert said last May that the world’s second-largest luxury group needed to “cull its bad investments quicker,” the markets have been fizzing with speculation about disposals, especially of Richemont’s soft luxury brands, which have been underperforming compared with its watches and jewelry divisions.

As reported, Richemont has handed Nomura the mandate to sell leather goods brand Lancel, and according to industry sources, Net-a-porter could be sold, merged with another company or spun off. WWD reported last month that Richemont had been in merger and acquisitions talks with the online retailer Yoox with an eye to finding a buyer for Net-a-porter. Richemont has declined to comment on the Lancel reports and has denied that Net-a-porter is for sale. Yoox denied that it has been in recent talks to buy Net-a-porter.

Last week, Thomas Chauvet of Citigroup in London published a detailed report in which he said he expects Richemont to make a “complete exit” from fashion and accessories in a bid to refocus on its hard luxury brands. The aim would be to forge a more “homogenous” group that generates higher margins and capital returns.

Chauvet said that if sold, the soft luxury division — Lancel, Chloé, Dunhill, Shanghai Tang, Purdey, Azzedine Alaïa and Peter Millar — could fetch up to 1.86 billion euros, or $2.57 billion, while Net-a-porter could be valued at 2.28 billion euros, or $3.15 billion, in either a sale or a spin-off into a separately listed company.