(Barclays) European Auto : Where’s the upside?

Little upside to PTs but our favoured stocks still look attractive: When we look at our current price targets we’re painfully aware that there is only 5% upside to our sector favourites. So is it time to sell out of autos or could we be wrong on either our valuation multiples or earnings outlook? Our analysis drives us to believe the latter, and more specifically that we could potentially be underestimating the speed of the European recovery. We currently forecast similar 2 year earnings growth for OEM’s as ‘04-‘07 and multiples are also largely in-line, implying limited re-rating potential. Our regression models point to a rather anaemic EU auto sales recovery (1.4% in 14E) but if they are leading us to undershoot, and upward earnings revisions are required, which names will benefit most? We caution that investors should be careful in stock selection and remember that a simple sensitivity analysis does not factor in market share movements among the players. We continue to prefer VOW3 (PT €225), and also see RNO (OW, €69), Valeo (OW, €83) and Conti (OW, €156) as leveraged to a better EU outlook.

VW, Renault and Valeo most exposed to a recovering Europe: While unsurprisingly our EPS sensitivity analysis to European volumes highlights Peugeot (UW, €6) as the company with the greatest delta to a European recovery, this presumes no loss in market share. In 2013 PSA’s volumes underperformed the Big 5 EU markets -660bp. By contrast Renault’s volumes outperformed +560bp and VW group +110bp. We expect Peugeot to continue to lose share in 14E, given recent underspend on capex. If we are indeed too cautious in our expectation for 1.4% growth, every 1% change in volumes would boost VW group EPS by 3% (€0.7) and Renault 2.3% (even assuming no impact on Nissan). A purer play into Europe without the same pricing/fixed cost absorption lift but ex-model cycle risk are suppliers. Valeo (OW, €83) remains our favoured name for growth and product exposure.

(Nomura) Beverages : RCO, ABI,DGE, HEIA, RI,... RI & ABI Upgraded...


>>> Remy Cointreau
*Further reductions to estimates and TP
Having reduced our estimates after the profit warning with the 1H results, we have become even more cautious following the surprising departure of the new CEO at the end of December. Our further reductions today take account of further weakness in the China business, together with a higher impact from lost agency brands in FY15E. Our TP reduces to EUR 45 from EUR 51.
*Some uncertainty about cognac in China
*Buy-back provides small support
*Valuation – expensive versus peers
Even after the fall in the share price, on our reduced estimate, the shares trade at a premium to spirits peers on a calendar 2014E P/E of 26.2x vs Pernod (16.6x) and Diageo (18.1x), with a spirits average of 19.9x. At our TP, the shares would be valued at a P/E of 20x. We retain our Reduce rating.

>>> Pernod Ricard : China now in share price; upgrade to Buy
*Slow 1H as expected
*Increase to TP despite cutting FY14E
*Getting towards the end of the hiatus period
*Valuation
Pernod trades at a calendar 2014E P/E of 16.6x vs Diageo at 18.1x and spirits average at 19.9x. At our target price, Pernod would trade at a P/E of 18.5x.

>>> Anheuser-Busch InBev : Earnings visibility offers protection to rating; higher returns offer attractions
* Upgrade to Neutral from Reduce
We upgrade ABI to Neutral from Reduce and increase our DCF-driven price target to EUR 75 from EUR 67. Although we see a number of pressures for big beer, as flagged in our 12 September report, we believe that good earnings visibility at ABI combined with scope for higher returns to shareholders provides some protection to the premium rating (calendar 2015E P/E of 17.9x vs the beer average 17.0x).
*Pressures for big beer….
*….but earnings visibility offers protection to the rating…
*…and higher returns offer attractions….
*‘Steady-as-she-goes’…..but not ‘rock-and-roll’

(Barclays) European Capital Goods : Adding quality to the mix

--> Rating changes: We are upgrading Legrand, a quality play on European construction recovery, to Overweight and SKF, post significant underperformance, to Equal Weight.

--> We see close to 20% upside potential on average for : Siemens, Philips, Sandvik, Legrand, Atlas Copco and Prysmian. 
On the downside we highlight Alstom, Kone, Metso, Alfa Laval and Osram.

Our preferred names in European Capital Goods are Siemens, Philips and Sandvik for restructuring, Legrand and Atlas Copco for mispriced quality and Prysmian for a bit of both. We think the sector in aggregate looks at best fairly valued on 2015E earnings and relative to the market. Following the reset in growth expectations last year (10% downgrades to FY14E EPS) current consensus growth estimates now look realistic. We are forecasting 11% EPS CAGR 2013-2015E reflecting a mild recovery in Europe, modest US growth and a mixed development in emerging markets.

See note attached

(BFW) Acciona Tumbles in Madrid After Announcing Convertible Bond

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

BN 01/16 08:06 *ACCIONA DROPS AS MUCH AS 7% IN MADRID TRADING BN 01/16 08:04 *ACCIONA TRADING DELAYED ON VOLATILITY, EXCHANGE SAYS BN 01/16 08:00 *ACCIONA DECLINES IN MADRID AFTER CONVERTIBLE BOND ANNOUNCEMENT

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Acciona Tumbles in Madrid After Announcing Convertible Bond 2014-01-16 08:13:55.460 GMT

By Todd White Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Co. declines as much as 7% after announcing plans to sell convertible bonds. * Stock declines to EU44.97/shr vs EU48.35 close yday * Shares recover to EU47.345, down 2.1%, at 9:12 a.m. local time

MORE: Acciona to Issue Up to EU450m of Convertible Bonds {NSN MZHH8M6JIJV2 <go>} Link to Company News:{EDP PL <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{ENEL IM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{EOAN GR <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{GAS SM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{IBE SM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{REE SM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{ANA SM <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Todd White at +34-91-700-9604 or twhite2@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Volkswagen, Renault Leveraged to Better EU Outlook: Barclays

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Volkswagen, Renault Leveraged to Better EU Outlook: Barclays 2014-01-16 07:39:36.346 GMT

By Francesca Cinelli Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Valeo, Continental also among cos. most exposed to Europe recovering, Barclays says. * Volkswagen Pref, Renault, Valeo, Continental, BMW kept at overweight * Faurecia, GKN, Volkswagen Ord kept at equalweight * Daimler, Peugeot, Michelin, Pirelli kept at underweight

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at +39-02-80644-252 or fcinelli@bloomberg.net

(BN) Europe December Car Sales Jump 13% as Discounting Propels Ford


Europe December Car Sales Jump 13% as Discounting Propels Ford
2014-01-16 07:00:01.856 GMT


By Mathieu Rosemain
     Jan. 16 (Bloomberg) -- European new-car sales surged 13
percent in December, the biggest monthly gain in almost four
years, as price cuts by producers such as Renault SA and Ford
Motor Co. helped generate a recovery that may last through 2014.
     Registrations last month jumped to 948,090 vehicles from
839,027 a year earlier, the Brussels-based European Automobile
Manufacturers Association, or ACEA, said today in a statement.
That pared the decline for the year to 1.8 percent for a total
of 12.3 million autos, the lowest number since 1995.
     Carmakers are predicting a gradual increase in European
demand this year after a sovereign-debt crisis and recessions
led to a six-year contraction in deliveries through 2013.
Consumers replacing old cars will probably account for some of
the recovery, though gains are also being fed in part by
continued incentives from automakers and a government vehicle-
scrappage program in Spain.
     “The market has bottomed out and the worst is clearly
behind us,” Peter Fuss, senior advisory partner at Ernst &
Young consulting company’s automotive unit, said in an e-mail
before the ACEA released figures. Demand in 2014 will show
“modest” gains, though “this growth will continue to be
artificial: one that is driven by discounts and self-
registrations” by dealers.

                           2010 Growth

     The gain in December was the steepest since a 13 percent
jump in January 2010. It marked the fourth successive month of
increases, the longest stretch since the June 2009 through March
2010 period. The ACEA compiles figures for European Union
countries plus Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. The group will
start including numbers this year from Croatia, which became the
28th EU member in July.
     Vehicles on European roads have been in use for an average
seven to eight years, unusually long for that market, prompting
buyers to seek new models, Stephen Odell, head of Ford’s
business in Europe, said in an interview on Jan. 13. At the same
time, unemployment near record highs in the countries using the
euro will hold back growth prospects, he said.
     French carmakers PSA Peugeot Citroen and Renault combined
were among the three biggest vehicle discounters in Germany all
year, according to industry publication Autohaus PulsSchlag.
Ford, which posted a 20 percent European sales surge in
December, placed among the top three price cutters for seven
months of 2013 while Fiat SpA’s namesake brand, which sold 2.3
percent more cars, was in the ranking for nine months.

                           Audi’s Gain

     For the second year in a row, the Fiat nameplate was
outsold in Europe by Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s namesake
brand, Volkswagen AG’s Audi division and Daimler AG’s Mercedes-
Benz, the world’s biggest manufacturers of luxury vehicles. Of
the three, only Audi posted a sales gain in the region in
December, with a 17 percent jump, while Mercedes was the only
one reporting full-year growth.
     “Europe still remains quite tough,” Ian Robertson, BMW’s
sales chief, said at a North American International Auto Show
press conference in Detroit on Jan. 13. “It’s going to take
several more years” for the market to reach previous levels.
“You still have unemployment,” and “an economy that is
extremely fragile.”
     The sales growth last month contrasts with drops of as much
as 10 percent in February and March. Registrations rose in the
five biggest European auto markets in December, with jumps of 24
percent in the U.K. and 18 percent in Spain, where the
government revived a cash-for-clunkers incentive program in
October. Growth in another 11 countries exceeded 10 percent,
including a doubling of demand in the Netherlands that was
propelled by buyers seeking to avoid a government surcharge
taking effect in January.

                         Renault’s Surge

     Group registrations in Europe increased 22 percent at
Wolfsburg, Germany-based Volkswagen, the region’s biggest
carmaker, and 29 percent at Renault, which ranks third.
     General Motors Co. posted a 13 percent increase as a 22
percent jump at the Opel and Vauxhall divisions based in Europe
more than made up for a 29 percent plunge at the Chevrolet
brand, which is being withdrawn from the region by the end of
2015. Toyota Motor Corp.’s sales in Europe, where the Japanese
carmaker places 10th in sales, rose 11 percent, while demand at
Tokyo-based Mitsubishi Motors Corp., the 18th-biggest seller in
the market, more than doubled.
     Hyundai Motor Co.’s European sales fell 8.4 percent last
month, the steepest drop in the region by an Asian carmaker.
     “Many European markets are over the worst of the economic
crisis, but recovery will be slow, particularly in the first
quarter,” Allan Rushforth, chief operating officer of Hyundai
in Europe, said in an e-mail. Hyundai “will continue to develop
our sales organically rather than pursuing market share gains at
any cost.”

For Related News and Information:
Ford Europe Chief Says Replacement Demand to Drive Car Purchases
NSN MZE8536TTDT3 <GO>
Fiat Secures Full Control of Chrysler in $4.35 Billion Deal (2)
NSN MYSAYP6TTDS8 <GO>
Euro-Area Economic Growth Slows as Exports, Consumption Cool
NSN MXA0SE6S9744 <GO>
Draghi Strengthens Rate Pledge as ECB Warns on Complacency (2)
NSN MZ55CE6KLVR5 <GO>
European car-sales graph: WCAR25 Y <Index> GP <GO>
Top transport Stories: TRNT<GO>

--With assistance from Jeff Green, Christoph Rauwald, Tommaso
Ebhardt and Craig Trudell in Detroit. Editors: Tom Lavell, Chad
Thomas

To contact the reporter on this story:
Mathieu Rosemain in Paris at +33-1-5530-6298 or
mrosemain@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Chad Thomas at +49-30-70010-6232 or
cthomas16@bloomberg.net

(UBS) ING : Restructuring nearly complete, dividends to come

*Restructuring to come to fruition in 2014, shining the light on ING Bank
We believe ING is on track to make the leap from a restructuring story to a restructured
bank in the next 12-18 months, crystallising shareholder value in the process. Most of
the restructuring efforts of the group should come to fruition in 2014, with a
substantial reduction in double leverage financed by stake sales in VOYA and
SulAmerica and, more importantly, with an IPO of the European insurance business,
which should for the first time provide the market with a standalone valuation of ING
Bank. Using our base-case scenario for these disposals, we estimate that ING Bank is
trading at a c.20% discount to the sector on a P/E basis and believe this should narrow,
given the balance-sheet strength of ING Bank.

*Improving macro backdrop offers upside risk to consensus estimates
With a number of leading indicators pointing to a recovery in the Dutch economy, we
expect to see c.8% growth in underlying earnings from a moderation in loan losses in
2014; we also estimate that a shift to normalised loan losses could be worth an
additional c.10% of earnings, which should feed into the P&L over time. Furthermore,
we see additional upside to both our and consensus estimates if an economic recovery
in Europe translates into better demand for new lending.

*Declaration of dividends should mark the end of the restructuring
We estimate that ING Bank should have a sufficient capital buffer to declare a dividend
for 2015 – the first since the start of the restructuring process – after the last tranche of
state aid is repaid in May 2015. We believe that ING Bank’s focus on stable, cash-flowgenerating
European markets should then enable the bank to maintain a 50% dividend
payout ratio, in our view.

* Valuation: Reiterating Buy and raising PT to €12.4 from €11.3
We increase our SOTP-driven price target to €12.4 from €11.3 to reflect a mark to
market of the VOYA and SulAmerica stakes and the roll-over of our capital-adjusted
Gordon growth model to 2015E profitability (from 2014 previously).

>>> What to look at today - 16/01/2014

US MArket Closed Higher, printing fresh record helped by World Bank GDP Growth forecast, volume were still on the light side @ 704mil shares...VIX @ 12.28 unchanged...SKEW @ 132.69 -0.55%, Cyclical were leading the move, Tech was helped by big names (AAPL,...)...Brazil+0.81%...BOJ Kuroda said the central bank will continue easing until 2% inflation is
stable. Separately, Japanese press speculated the cabinet office will raise its economic assessment for the first time in 4 months...Nikkei -0.40%...Fitch: Japan external deficits highlights fiscal risks...China MOFCOM warned 2014 may bring "severe challenges" in the trade sector, since global recovery has not stabilized. Higher costs, liquidity shortages, base effects and competition were specifically attributed to expectations of a choppy trade activity in Q1...Shanghai +0.05%...Australia employment fell by the biggest amount in 9-months. Unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8% but only because of declining participation rate, which fell 2bps to 64.6% - a 7-year low. Decline in employment
effectively brings back the possibility of further RBA easing, particularly a some of the more recent housing data show signs of deceleration.

Eur$ 1.3622 S&P Fut Unch. European Fut +0.29%

Keep an eye on :
- Beverages : Slower Earnings Growth May Accelerate Beverage M&A, Nomura Says {NSN MZHERD6TTDS5 <go>}
- Advertisement : Global 2014 Ad Spending to Rise 5.2%, According to Warc Survey {NSN MZGT6L6TTDS2 <go>}
- ABF LN : AB Foods 16-Wk Group Rev. `Level,' No Change to FY Forecasts
- ABI BB : AB InBev’s Chalmers, Tadeu Each Sell EU13.8m of Brewer’s Stock
- AH NA : Ahold 4Q Rev. Misses Ests.; Co. Revamps Europe Business, U.S. LFL Sales Weaker Than Est., Shrs May Fall, Exane Says
- AIR FP : Airbus : France is selling 1% stake (approx 8M shares) to institutional investors
- AZA IM : Etihad May Toughen Demands for Possible Alitalia Stake
- BEI GY : Beiersdorf Reports FY13 Rev €6.04B v €6.2Be, FY13 Organic rev growth +7.2% v +7.0%e; confirms EBIT Margin
- BMPS IM : Paschi Management Continuity Is Positive, Foundation Tells Ansa
- BO DC: Bang & Olufsen 2Q Net Beats Ests., Keeps FY Outlook
- CA FP : Carrefour 4Q Sales In Line With Ests., China LFL Misses
- CFR VX : Richemont 3Q Sales Miss Ests., Watches Sales Miss {NSN MZHD9E6JIJV9 <go>}
- CLS1 GY : UBS Sees 80% Probability Celesio is Bought, UBS Says
- DXNS LN : Dixons 3Q U.K./Ireland LFL Sales Beat., Sees `More Modest' 4Q
- INGA NA : Buy ING, Restructuring Nearly Complete, Dividends to Come: UBS
- KN FP : Natixis May Be Slightly Less Profitable as CNP Pact Ends: Echos
- MT NA : Liberia Says ArcelorMittal Must Share Rail Line: Reuters
- OR FP : L'Oreal Reportedly reaches settlement deal with EBay; terms not disclosed
- ORC FP : Orco Property Appoints 2 Deputy CEOs, COO
- 1913 HK : Prada Sees Growth Rates Moderating, Will Push Miu Miu Brand: UBS
- PUB FP : Global 2014 Ad Spending to Rise 5.2%, According to Warc Survey
- REC IM : Recordati CEO Expects Sales, Profitability to Rise This Year
- RIO LN : Rio Tinto 4Q Iron-Ore Output in Line With Est.; Copper Beats
- SAN FP : Sanofi Contests Claims Over Revaxis Vaccine, Le Parisien Says
- TKA AV : Telekom Austria Added 1,600 Domestic Fixed-Line Clients in 2013
- TKA GY : ThyssenKrupp Board to Name Maassen Deputy Chairman: Handelsblatt
- UG FP : Peugeot Says Rennes Plant Is Still Overstaffed for 2014
- UNI IM : UnipolSai Says Allianz Made Offer for Milano Assets Jan. 14
- UNI IM : UnipolSai to Issue EU201.8m in Convertible Bonds

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16/01/2014

>>> Up
*AB INBEV RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*ADECCO RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*BERENDSEN RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT PEEL HUNT
*BHP RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*FRESNILLO RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT BMO CAPITAL MARKETS
*KPN RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*LEGRAND RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*NORSK HYDRO RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*OZ MINERALS RAISED TO OUTPERFORM AT MACQUARIE
*PERNOD RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT NOMURA
*POLYMETAL INTERNATIONAL RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*SKF AB RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*TALANX RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT HELVEA
*TELECOM ITALIA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS REDUCE AT NOMURA
*UNITED UTILITIES RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*WEATHERFORD RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCIETE GENERALE
*ZURICH INSURANCE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

>>> Down
*ARKEMA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*C&C GROUP CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT NOMURA
*CA IMMO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*CHR HANSEN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*INTERTEK CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*KCELL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*SYNTHOMER CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*SWISS RE CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*YARA CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY

>>> PT Changes
*BURBERRY PT RAISED TO 1,512P VS 1,500P AT CANTOR; KEPT AT HOLD

>>> Initiation
*METRO RATED NEW BUY AT EQUINET; PT EU43
*MEGGITT INITIATED AT OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT 665P
*MTU AERO ENGINES RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN; PT EU61
*TELECOM ITALIA RATED NEW HOLD AT JEFFERIES, PT EU0.74

>>>Call
>> Stock
*Intesa Still Preferred Over UniCredit at Exane; PTs Increased
*Buy ING, Restructuring Nearly Complete, Dividends to Come: UBS