(BFW) Shire’s Over $4b Pipeline Not Reflected in Shares: Deutsche Bank

Shire’s Over $4b Pipeline Not Reflected in Shares: Deutsche Bank
2014-06-10 07:46:17.571 GMT


By Allison Connolly
     June 10 (Bloomberg) -- Market confidence in Shire’s long-
term prospects is considerably lower than in its more immediate
outlook, Deutsche Bank says in note dated June 9.
  * Estimates products with peak annual sales potential of $4b
    could be on market by 2018; with additional >$1b potentially
    coming from two rare disease programs around 2019
  * Raises PT to 4,350p vs 3,920p, maintains buy
  * Says lifitegrast has highest commercial potential; ests.
    sales of ~$450m by 2018 vs consensus est. <$200m due to
    increased confidence in approvability, differentiated
    profile
  * Expects co. to be highly active in M&A, w/ borrowing
    capacity of $12b and debt-free by next year
  * NOTE: June 5, Shire’s Best Defense From Takeover Is Going on
    Offense: Real M&A
For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Allison Connolly in London at +44-20-3525-7043 or
aconnolly4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Gaurav Panchal

WSJ : Emerging Markets Set for Review

A potential reshuffle of the global pecking order of nations is at hand this week: one which has nothing to do with football.

Billions of dollars of investment are at stake in China, Korea and Taiwan as the MSCI Emerging Markets Index tracked by global fund managers prepares to come under review after U.S. markets close on Tuesday.

The index provider very rarely tinkers with the index because of the potential effects on the $3.9 trillion of equities it tracks in risky markets from Mexico to Malaysia, and often delays additions to the index or reclassifications if it feels the exchanges don’t deserve them.

This year though, MSCI will decide for the first time whether to add so-called Chinese A shares, mainland-listed stocks denominated in yuan, to its widely-followed benchmark. Meanwhile, Korea and Taiwan are under review for potential upgrade from “emerging” to “developed market” status that would kick them out of the index, but give them the potential to attract more cash from investors who only buy securities from countries deemed safer than emerging markets.

“Upgrades have a big influence into the flow of funds into these countries,” said Mark Austen, chief executive of the Asia Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (ASIFMA), a trade group. “If you’re added to an index, just by dint of that, money has to flow in.”

Domestic Chinese stocks are largely absent from the index, though MSCI includes equities listed offshore in the U.S. and in Hong Kong, and others denominated in U.S. dollars on China’s exchanges.

China accounts for 18.9% of the index at present, though MSCI argues that it should raise this weighting to 27.7% to reflect the country’s global clout.

MSCI’s plan is to add Chinese shares equivalent to 0.6% of the Emerging Markets Index from May 2015, eventually increasing this to 10.2%.

Deutsche BankDBK.XE +0.57%, which sells yuan-denominated China funds, says the move would be “a small step, but an important milestone in opening up China’s equity market.” Some $7 billion of investment would be attracted as a result of the initial change, with inflows rising to $133 billion if MSCI’s plan is fully implemented, the bank says.

But investment quotas and currency convertibility issues make it difficult for many trading firms to access Chinese markets, says Nick Ronalds, managing director for equities at ASIFMA, which represents companies including BlackRock and UBSUBSN.VX +1.57%.

However, a recent move by Hong Kong and Shanghai to connect their stock exchanges will make it easier for global investors to buy Chinese shares, and could be a potential workaround. “If the launch is successful and it continues to evolve, I think we could expect them to join at some point,” Mr Ronalds says.

Deutsche Bank favors a review in six months after the Hong Kong-Shanghai link is scheduled to commence operations.

MSCI tends to ponder decisions carefully: Korea has been under review for six years and Taiwan for five.

“For Korea and Taiwan, net inflows into equities will likely be significant if their status is changed,” says Nomura, with each country poised to attract $11.3 billion and $8.6 billion respectively – though the bank expects the two will fail to meet MSCI’s criteria this time round.

However, there are detriments to an upgrade too – a big weighting in MSCI Emerging Markets can be preferable to a smaller weighting among larger developed markets. Citigroup saC +1.33%id some clients reported concerns that an upgrade for Korea could trigger outflows.

NY Post : Family Dollar thwarts Icahn with ‘poison pill’

Billionaire Carl Icahn’s conversation with Family Dollar has gotten off on the wrong foot.
The activist investor told The Post he took it as an “insult” after the dollar-store chain adopted a “poison pill” provision to block him from buying more shares in the company.
Icahn, who disclosed late Friday he has taken a 9.4-percent stake in Family Dollar, signaled in a securities filing that he may push for operational changes, strategic alternatives and possibly board seats.
But Family Dollar, whose chairman and CEO Howard Levine is the son of the company’s founder, responded Monday by capping the number of shares any investor could amass in the retailer at 10 percent.
“A 10-percent poison pill does nothing but enhance legal fees and is a basic insult to shareholders rights,” Icahn told The Post in a Monday interview. “It’s great for lawyers’ fees, but it’s not exactly friendly.”
Family Dollar said Morgan Stanley is its financial adviser, while Cleary Gottlieb is acting as its legal counsel.
Icahn’s move juiced investors, who sent Family Dollar shares up 13.4 percent on Monday to $68.62.
Icahn isn’t the first billionaire cage rattler to “shop” at the 7,963-store Charlotte, NC, chain.
Nelson Peltz’s Trian Partners owns a 7.4-percent stake. It tried unsuccessfully in 2011 to jump-start a sale of the retailer by offering $60 a share.
Peltz backed off when no other bidders emerged, and Family Dollar gave a board seat to Peltz’s son-in-law Edward Garden — who was the sole director to vote against the poison pill.
Deep-pocketed John Paulson’s hedge fund owns a 6.5-percent Family Dollar stake, but has remained largely silent about his investment.
“The likely end game is that private equity would be involved,” said Mark Montagna, an analyst at Avondale Partners, when asked about the prospects of Family Dollar getting sold.
Investors have long speculated that Family Dollar might get acquired by archrival Dollar General, the 11,250-store deep discounter based in Goodlettville, Tenn.
Montagna notes that Dollar General has repeatedly said it is focused on expanding its own chain.
Nevertheless, some analysts say it could still make sense for Dollar General to consider snapping up its smaller rival. In a report last August, Credit Suisse said Family Dollar could be “relatively attractive” to Dollar General at the $90 to $100 level.
Dollar General shares rose 7.4 percent to $62.25.
Walmart has also been cited as a possible acquirer of Family Dollar, but large acquisitions have not been typical with the world’s biggest retailer, which is rolling out about 300 smaller stores called “Walmart Express.”
Jefferies & Co. raised its ratings on Family Dollar and Dollar General to “buy,” citing a potential merger and synergies.
“We think Dollar General could be a motivated buyer given where we are in the life cycle of this dollar-store industry ,” analyst Daniel Binder wrote in a note.

(ZH) Bronze Swan Lands: Goldman Explains How The China Commodity Unwind Will Hap

{http://bit.ly/1uPnG8N} Full article

Over a year ago we were the first to bring the topic of China's shadow banking system's problematic rehypothecation issues to the general trading public. In "The Bronze Swan Arrives: Is The End Of Copper Financing China's "Lehman Event"?" we explained how the Chinese commodity financing deals (CCFDs) worked and how they would inevitably be a systemic event for the nation so dependent on the shadow banking system for its credit (and its "growth"). The day has arrived when the Bronze Swan is landing (and it's unlikely to be soft). As we have discussed recently, the probe into 'missing' collateral (or multiple-used collateral) at China's Qingdao warehouse is a major problem... and now Goldman confirms, the Qingdao situation likely to continue ongoing CCFD unwind and has the potential to leave foreign banks with undercollateralized loans and/or losses.

FT : The news baron battling Google

Mathias Döpfner points from the window of his 18th floor office to the street where the Berlin Wall once ran. These days the view is of an ordinary city street but when Axel Springer built his Berlin publishing house here, it was right on the edge of the Russian sector.
As other German corporations abandoned the divided city the Springer monolith was proof that one western capitalist was not afraid of a fight.

Half a century later the targets may have changed but the relish for combat lives on.
In April the head of Europe’s biggest newspaper publisher by circulation admitted that “we are afraid of Google” and accused it of seeking to establish a digital superstate free from the constraints of antitrust regulators and privacy concerns.
In an open letter to Eric Schmidt, Google’s executive chairman, Mr Döpfner said that the debate about Google’s power was “not a conspiracy theory for stick-in-the-muds”.
He painted a picture of Google’s power radiating from the home to encompass driverless cars and robotics, and criticised the recent settlement of the EU’s antitrust investigation of its search and advertising practices.
The concession Google had agreed with Brussels allows rival search engines a showing alongside its own results, though they must pay Google through an auction for the display of these links. This deal, the Springer chief wrote, was “protection money”.
Where Mr Döpfner led, politics followed. In May, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany’s economy minister, publicly called for the possible break-up of Google should the company be found to have abused its dominant position.
With Arnaud Montebourg, his French counterpart, Mr Gabriel then wrote a joint letter to Joaquín Almunia, the EU’s competition chief, urging him not just to push for further concessions from Google over search and advertising, but to look more widely at its business practices.
Hundreds of European digital companies – led by Axel Springer and France’s Lagardère, and calling themselves the “Open Internet Project” – have lobbied the European Commission to think again. Critics say the proposed settlement does little to foster competition in online searches.
“It is not about Google-bashing, or anti-Google, or weaken Google or things like that,” says Mr Döpfner. “That is too primitive. It is really that we need – for the prospects of the digital economy, for a healthy environment of competition – we need this debate.”
In response to the criticism, Google points out that the proposed changes to its search and advertising practices have been through two separate market tests “which enabled the commission to hear directly from a number of our competitors”. The tech company says it made significant changes to its initial proposals after this feedback.
Since late 2012, waves of Springer executives – starting with the editor-in-chief of its flagship newspaper Bild – have been sent to Silicon Valley
Last month, Larry Page, Google’s chief executive, told the Financial Times that the company would try to “be more European” in its approach to privacy issues as it agreed to introduce a mechanism to strip some personal information from search results.
Mr Almunia is expected to adopt the search and advertising settlement by the autumn, though he is under pressure from complainants, who have won support from other European commissioners.
On one level, the fact that Mr Döpfner is stirring up European opposition to Google’s power is remarkable. In Germany, there are few who display more missionary zeal about the transition to digital publishing. Since late 2012, waves of Springer executives – starting with the editor-in-chief of its flagship newspaper, the populist title Bild – have been sent west to learn from Silicon Valley.
Mr Döpfner says: “It’s not that we want to copy Silicon Valley, in all aspects, there are some things that you learn that you don’t want to do like Silicon Valley does it, but of course it is extremely inspiring to benefit from the most successful hub of digital innovation.”
So does he see Google as a threat to his company’s business model? At first he responds by praising the “search ecosystem” Google delivers for its positive effects on digital publishing. “Google delivers traffic. Google delivers advertising,” he says.
A photograph of Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel looks out from the front page of Bild on a newspaper stand following her election victory, in Corinth, Greece, on Monday, Sept. 23, 2013. While the country's lenders are on firmer footing after getting capital from euro-area and International Monetary Fund bailout funds, they still need to reduce the non-performing loans that have tripled to 29 percent of the total in three years and threaten their new-found solvency. Photographer: Kostas Tsironis/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
Big hitter: Bild is Europe’s biggest-selling newspaper
But the head of Springer suggests that ultimately he regards the big tech companies as competitors, even though “we are tiny little dwarfs compared to them”.
Traditional publishers face a fundamental question, the former journalist believes. “Do these traditional content experts successfully take over and develop the new technological platforms in order to become the digital publishers of the future? Or will the big tech companies take over the content competence of these traditional publishers?”
In this conflict, Google is not the only rival. His competitors include Amazon, Facebook, Apple – “eBay even to a certain degree”.
He describes the clash with Google as “David against Goliath” – an ironic description given Springer’s clout in its home market. Mr Döpfner tries to play down the influence of Bild, Europe’s biggest-selling newspaper, claiming it could never change a political trend, only “de-escalate” or “amplify here and there”.
But the latest demonstration of Springer’s power came after the European elections, when Angela Merkel changed course over backing Jean-Claude Juncker for the presidency of the European Commission hours after Bild backed him in an editorial.
Written by Mr Döpfner, the editorial declared: “It is clear; Europeans want Juncker as EU President.” The German chancellor switched from openly doubting Mr Juncker to pledging him her support.
The usage of data is power, is business power and is political power. Wrong usage of data is a limitation of freedom
Mr Döpfner’s challenge to Google has won him enthusiastic support in Europe, but there is little sign of equivalent public backing in the US. He says that he has “tremendous support from very powerful people” in the US, but will not name them, as they have decided not to endorse him in public.
Unlike the US, Europe’s direct experience of fascism and communism has left its people fearful of the notion of the “transparent citizen”, he suggests.
Nevertheless, he thinks America’s mood will shift as Europe’s has done. “The usage of data is power, is business power and is political power. Wrong usage of data is a limitation of freedom,” he says.
In its present form, Google does not “want to do evil”, he concludes, but he worries about how it might behave in the future. “Do we know who owns, who runs, who controls Google in five, in 15, in 25 years? Do we know what the mindset then will be?”
Springer’s digital transition
Mathias Döpfner may be at odds with Google but he is no technophobe, having accelerated Axel Springer’s shift away from print.
Last year it sold regional newspapers, including the Hamburger Abendblatt, the first daily created by the group’s founder, and acquired a 24-hour news channel that will be used to supply video for its digital platforms. A paid-for online version of Bild was introduced a year ago.
The shift carries risks: the print operations it sold had a 20 per cent profit margin in 2013 compared with a 16 per cent margin for Springer as a whole, for instance.
The company’s latest annual report shows the share of Springer’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation from digital media rose from just under half in 2012 to 62 per cent last year. But ebitda fell by 9 per cent from €499m to €454m.
The publisher has unbundled the traditional revenue streams of a newspaper, organising the business into three divisions around paid content, marketing and classified ads.
Of the three, classified advertising was the strongest performer. Revenues were up 22 per cent on the prior year, with an ebitda margin of nearly 41 per cent.
There is speculation of an IPO for the digital classifieds business, which is a joint venture with private equity fund General Atlantic. However, rumours of an imminent initial public offering are “incorrect”, Mr Döpfner says.

>>> Renault SA Acquires stake in Societe des Automobiles Alpine Caterham, brings


Renault SA Acquires stake in Societe des Automobiles Alpine Caterham, brings stake to 100%
- Following a mutual agreement between Renault and Caterham Group, Renault has increased its stake in Socitdes Automobiles Alpine Caterham to 100%, following acquisition of the interest held by Caterham Group. Renault will now continue to develop its own Alpine sports car to be launched in 2016, as initially planned. Caterham Group also plans to continue with its own sports car.

>>> Nestle may be interested in Godiva

Nestle may be interested in Godiva 

Nestle may be interested in chocolate company Godiva, Dunya reported, citing no specific source.

The news report noted the company may seek an increased presence in the luxury chocolates segment. It may also be interested in Godiva, which is owned by Turkey's Yildiz Holding and Russel Stover.

Nestle CEO Paul Bulcke was cited as saying at a recent investor conference in Boston that he was personally disappointed with the segment, in which his company has not been as successful as it is in other market segments.

Jon Cox, an analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux, said Nestle may launch a global initiative in the coming months in that direction, according to the report.

The company had previously been said to be interested in Lindt & Spruengli or Ferrero, and that making an acquisition would be the easiest way for Nestle to boost its presence in the segment.

The company spokesperson declined to comment, the report said.

Godiva was sold in 2008 to Yildiz in a USD 850m deal, according to earlier reports.


Source Dunya

>>> Mediaset unimpressed by Telefonica's offer for 22% stake in Digital Plus

Mediaset unimpressed by Telefonica's offer for 22% stake in Digital Plus 

Mediaset, the listed, Italian media group, is understood to be unimpressed by an offer tabled by Spanish telco Telefonica for its 22% stake in the Spanish pay TV operator Digital Plus.

An unsourced article in Italian-language daily Il Messaggero reported this information. The report said Telefonica is believed to have offered EUR 350m for the stake. It is possible that Mediaset was holding out for a better price, the item noted.

Mediaset has, under the terms of the contract it signed in 2009 when it first took the 22% stake in Digital Plus, until 20 June to decide on whether to match Telefonica's offer for a 56% stake in Digital Plus that has been accepted by the vendor Prisa. The report said its other two are options to sell its stake or remain in Digital Plus with its 22% holding.

The report said that if Mediaset decides to match Telefonica's offer, the two companies would divide the stake between them and would hold 50% each in Digital Plus.


Source Il Messaggero