NY Post : Study says investing in sports franchises a ‘safe haven’

The worldwide popularity of sports TV programming has elevated professional sports franchises into their own asset class — worth about $550 billion globally, according to a report on Monday.
And with the change, sports teams — as evidenced by last month’s $2 billion bid for the LA Clippers and the LA Dodgers’ $2.15 billion deal in 2012 — have transformed from trophy assets into one of the best assets around, the report said.
In fact, sports teams compare to stocks, bonds and real estate as the “only safe haven,” according to the report from ConvergEx Group.
That’s because this newest of asset classes “moves independently of both financial and physical assets, such as gold and real estate,” ConvergEx, a global brokerage firm, said.
A big reason for sports’ arrival is what the firm called the “must see live” characteristic of such activities, dating back to when the Olympic Games began in 776 BC and continuing right up to the World Cup today.
“Football games, soccer matches, the Olympics — these type of events are the only thing that has managed to hold live viewer attention in an increasingly fragmented world dominated by TiVo, YouTube, Netflix, DVR, etc.,” ConvergEx reported.
Advertiser appreciation for these live and attentive audiences already has the global sports industry valued between $480 billion and $620 billion.
As for the value of major leagues in just the US — MLB, NBA, NFL and NHL — ConvergEx put that figure “just shy of $80 billion.”
And once the Union of European Football Associations gets added to America’s Big 4, the firm said the total value rose to $101 billion.
By comparison, the Census Bureau called US residential real-estate construction a $107.5 billion industry in 2012, and a recent global study projected gold will be $187.7 billion market by 2017.
ConvergEx did acknowledge that the new asset class isn’t for everybody.
Unless you’re a big shot like Steve Ballmer, who made the $2 billion bid for the Clippers, gaining access won’t be easy.

FT : IEA warns on Opec oil production risks

The sectarian strife in Iraq has put growth of Opec crude oil production capacity over the next five years at risk, according to the International Energy Agency, highlighting the importance of the country for the global energy market.
Roughly 60 per cent of the growth in the oil-producing cartel’s production capacity up until 2019 was expected to come from Iraq.

“Given Iraq’s precarious political and security situation, the forecast [for Opec output capacity growth of 2.08m barrels a day for 2013-19] is laden with downside risk,” the watchdog backed by wealthy nations said in its annual medium-term oil market report released on Tuesday.
Sunni insurgents from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (known as Isis) made further territorial gains over the Shia-led government in northern Iraq, having already taken the city of Mosul.
The escalating violence has threatened the disintegration of the country and the oil supplies of Opec’s second largest crude producer after Saudi Arabia.
The military offensive “brought home to markets . . . how unstable and volatile the Iraqi political situation remains”, the IEA said of the nation that produces more than 3m b/d.
Iraq had re-emerged as a critical source of oil in recent years, reaching a 35-year high of 3.6m barrels in February. Although Abdul Kareem Luaibi, the country’s oil minister, struck a defiant tone last week in Vienna, analysts say it is unlikely Iraq will hit its 4m b/d production target.
“This offensive is not only raising concerns about future production from operating and new projects, but casting a pall on the functioning of the country’s government institutions and even on regional stability,” the IEA added.
Concerns over Iraqi supply come as fighting in Libya has stalled production while international sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme have cut exports. Nigerian production has been plagued by theft.
“Political turmoil and security concerns are a growing impediment to supply growth,” said the IEA. “Enough Opec countries are facing headwinds for the output from the group as a whole to be affected.”
Katherine Spector, a commodities strategist at CIBC World Markets, said although oil supplies from Iraq were not at immediate risk as the fighting had not spread to the south – home to three-quarters of the country’s crude output – “we cannot rule out the risk entirely”.
“Even before the violence broke out this was a fairly tightly managed oil market. We were one more supply outage away from sharply higher prices. Although we’re not quite there yet, this is a concern,” said Ms Spector.
The price of Brent crude surged above $114 late last week for the first time in nine months.

WSJ : European Auto Industry Recovery Slows in May

European Auto Industry Recovery Slows in May
Car Registrations Grew at Slowest Pace in Six Months

FRANKFURT—The European auto industry continued its recovery in May, but car registrations grew at their slowest pace in six months, raising doubts over the strength of the upswing.

New car registrations in the European Union, a proxy for actual sales, rose 4.5% on the year to 1.09 million vehicles in May. In the first five month, registrations grew 6.9%.

All major markets contributed positively to the overall expansion of the EU market, except Italy, which faced a downturn, ACEA said Thursday.

In Italy, car registrations fell 3.8%. Spain and Portugal reported double-digit growth in demand for new cars, while registrations rose 7.7% in the U.K.

Germany, the EU's biggest car market, posted a 5.2% increase in May, while registrations in France rose 0.3% for the same period.

While the turnaround seems intact, there are some doubts about the strength of the car sales recovery. ACEA said it was the second-lowest number of cars sold in May since the group began collecting EU-wide data in 2003.

Among European car makers, registrations of Volkswagen VOW3.XE -0.61% cars rose 9.6% in May, while PSA Group sold 4.3% more cars. Renault group sales jumped 19% last month, making it the fastest-growing European car maker in May. However, BMW Group's BMW.XE +0.19% car registrations fell 2.2% and Italy's Fiat F.MI -1.10% was down 2.7%.

Among non-European manufacturers, U.S. car makers struggled to gain ground in European markets, with General Motors GM +1.21% car registrations declining 6.8% in May and Ford's sales falling 2% in the month.

>>> What to look at today - 17/06/2014

US Market closed near the flat line, market is on wait mode in front of Wednesday's FOMC meeting...volume was light at 591mil shares, not a single sector that ended the day up, or down, more than 1.0%...VIX @ 12,65 +3,86%...Aussie dollar moved sharply lower on the release of RBA policy meeting minutes from earlier this month that were widely deemed more dovish than expected - AUD/USD and AUD/JPY fell over 30pips to $0.9360 and ¥95.40 respectively...Woodside (WPL AU) were halted on news of Shell will cut its satke from 23% to 4.5% for about $5b, woodside will buy half of these shares...- Moody's comments noted China's sovereign credit profile is likely to withstand rebalancing challenges, and that its Aa3 rating and stable outlook are underpinned by its macroeconomic strengths as well as by its fiscal and external cushions. Ratings agency did warn that the success of policy measures will be critical for China's ability to negotiate the challenges on the horizon

Eur$1.3560 Fut : S&P +0.13% Eurostoxx +0.12% FTSE +0.2% Dax+0.16% SMI +0.27%

Macro
- Fed Will Raise Rates Faster Than Investors Expect, Survey Shows

Keep an eye on :
- ALO FP : Alstom’s Board to Study Siemens-Mitsubishi Offer in Coming Days
- ALO FP : GE Says It Won’t Engage in a Bidding War for Alstom
- ASOS LN : Overweight Asos, Long-Term Story Intact, JPMorgan Says
- ATLN VX : Buy Actelion, May Be 20% Upside to 2016 Consensus EPS, UBS Says
- AZA IM : Alitalia Board Approves EU200m Capital Increase, Messaggero Says
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Said to Hire Adviser for Potential Cancer Deals: WSJ
- EN FP : Bouygues Says Not Contacted by Mitsubishi, France Over Alstom
- EN FP : Bouygues Telecom Starts 4G+ Offer
- BP/ LN : BP to Sign $20 Billion LNG Supply Deal With China's Cnooc Today
- CGG FP : Awarded contrat in Saudi Arabia
- CLN VX : Overweight Clariant, JPMorgan Says Ahead of Capital Markets Day
- INGA NA : Buy ING, May Look to Spin off Remaining NN Shares, UBS Says
- MTL US : Russia May Spend RU215b to Bailout Mechel: Kommersant
- NESN VX : Nestle to Focus on Revitalizing Nescafe Brand: WSJ Link
- NOVN VX : Novartis Submits Meningitis B Candidate Bexsero to FDA
- RDSA NA : Shell to raise $5bn with Woodside stake sale - FT
- RSA LN : RSA Seeks Buyers for Asian Operations for Up to $500m: Reuters
- RTO LN : Buy Rentokil, Pull-Back Provides Buying Opportunity, RBC Says
- STAN LN : Said to have sold two units in South Korea for approx $148M in cash
- SAL IM : Salini Costruttori Secondary Placement Up to 100m Shrs
- SCMN VX : Swisscom Increases Offer For PubliGroupe to CHF214/shr
- SHP LN : Shire Hires Citi as It Braces for Takeover Offers: Reuters
- TEMN SW : Temenos to Return Up to $120m Through a Share Buyback Program
- UL FP : Unibail to offer CB (ORNANE) €435m (to €500) 01/07/2021

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17/06/2014

>>> Up
*ACTELION RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*BANCO POPULAR RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*BANCO SABADELL RAISED TO OVERWEIGHTT AT BARCLAYS
*DEUTSCHE ANNINGTON RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT HSBC
*DEUTSCHE WOHNEN RAISED TO NEUTRAL AT HSBC
*ERAMET RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*FINNAIR RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT NORDEA
*GENERALI RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*RHEINMETALL RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*UNICREDIT RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> Down
*BBVA CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*EURASIA DRILLING CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*INTL PERSONAL FIN CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*SECHE ENVIRONNEMENT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT ODDO
*SUBSEA 7 CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG

>>> PT Change
*Actelion PT Raised to SF130 vs SF100 at Jefferies

>>> Initiation
*AIRBUS GROUP RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT EU60.5
*BAE SYSTEMS RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG; PT 445P
*COBHAM RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG; PT 325P
*GKN RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT 440P
*MEGGITT RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT 600P
*QINETIQ RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG; PT 225P
*ROLLS-ROYCE RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT 1,216P
*SAFRAN RATED NEW BUY AT BERENBERG; PT EU62.5
*TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND RATED NEW BUY AT SANTANDER, PT EU7
*ULTRA ELECTRONICS RATED NEW HOLD AT BERENBERG; PT 1,970P

>>> Call
>> Stock
*SWISSCOM REMOVED FROM UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST
*TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND ADDED TO UBS’S MOST PREFERRED LIST

>>> Unibail-Rodamco To offer convertible bonds


Unibail-Rodamco To offer convertible bonds
- Launches today an offering of net share settled bonds convertible into new shares and/or exchangeable for existing shares (ORNANE) due July 1, 2021 (the "Bonds"), for an initial nominal amount of approximately EUR435 million which may be increased up to a maximum nominal amount of approximately EUR500 million in the event of the exercise by Unibail-Rodamco in full of its option to increase the issue. 
- The Bonds will be issued at par

FT : GE moves to fend off rival bid for Alstom

General Electric is preparing to offer fresh concessions to the French government as it attempts to win approval for its $16.9bn bid for Alstom and head off a rival offer from Siemens and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
The US industrial conglomerate will bolster existing commitments it has made to protect French jobs with an offer to give Paris the option of having increased French investment in parts of the company if its deal was approved, according to people familiar with GE.

News of GE’s plan to sweeten its promises to the Élysée came just hours after Siemens and Mitsubishi on Monday unveiled their own joint bid for parts of the French industrial champion, including €7bn in cash.
GE has already ruled out improving the financial terms of its offer and entering into a bidding war.
The Siemens-Mitsubishi offer is more complex than GE’s bid and attempts to win over the Alstom board and the French state by setting up joint ventures and the possibility of creating a “European mobility champion”.
Siemens is offering €3.9bn for Alstom’s gas turbines business, while Japan’s Mitsubishi Heavy and partner Hitachi would inject €3.1bn and merge their operations with Alstom in three other energy areas.
Siemens and Mitsubishi have an uphill struggle this week to explain the merits of the bid to Alstom’s board, which has already accepted the GE bid and faces a break-up fee of 1.5 per cent of the purchase value if another offer is accepted.
The deal proposes that Mitsubishi create three joint ventures by acquiring 40 per cent of Alstom’s steam and nuclear business, 20 per cent of its grid business and 20 per cent of its hydro business in a “broad industrial alliance”.
Mitsubishi is also offering to acquire up to a 10 per cent stake in Alstom itself from Bouygues, the company’s largest shareholder. The alliance would enable the creation of more than 1,000 jobs in France, the company said.
Siemens said it would take all of Alstom’s gas business, including related service contracts, for €3.9bn in cash. It said it also “intends to study diligently in good faith” solutions to create a European champion in transport by combining assets.

Siemens said it intends to offer a job guarantee for three years in France and Germany for the transferred business after the closure of the transaction. GE already said it would create 1,000 new jobs in France within three years of its deal.
People close to Siemens and Mitsubishi acknowledge that Alstom’s board, and chief executive Patrick Kron in particular, remain inclined towards the GE offer, although they are lobbying to change the board’s position this week.

Michel Sapin, the finance minister, said on Sunday that he did not have “any preference” for a bidder, but that the government would defend jobs and investment, using new powers allowing the state to block foreign takeovers in sectors deemed strategic.
“Mitsubishi forming an alliance with Siemens improves Siemens’ offer,” Mr Sapin said in an interview broadcast simultaneously on Europe 1 radio and iTele. “I think that GE is also going to improve its offer.”
Alstom, which makes France’s TGV high-speed trains and was bailed out by the state a decade ago, has until June 23 to make a final choice on which offer to accept.
Joe Kaeser, Siemens’ chief executive. and Shunichi Miyanaga, MHI’s chief, will present the plan to President François Hollande on Tuesday morning and to France’s lower house of parliament on Tuesday afternoon, according to the parliamentary press office.
Their case will contain a thinly disguised appeal to French concerns about a GE takeover of Alstom’s top assets. “Our concept preserves Alstom almost as it is,” a senior Siemens executive said. “There is no dismantling and no bloodbath, but a concentration on growth. This is not about the money, it is about a long-term partnership, preserving a French icon.”
In a clear attempt to woo support from the French government, MHI said it had proposed that the state take a matching stake in Alstom. “We hope and we asked for participation by the government. We would be very happy to have such a situation,” said a senior MHI official.
Both MHI and Siemens insisted that their joint bid represented “significantly higher” financial value than the GE offer, suggesting it amounted to a premium of around €1bn to the rival bid on a “like for like” basis.

(BFW) Swisscom Increases Offer For PubliGroupe to CHF214/shr


Swisscom Increases Offer For PubliGroupe to CHF214/shr
2014-06-17 05:12:57.439 GMT


By Chris Malpass
     June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Swisscom reaches pact with
PubliGroupe and latter’s major holders to increase offer price.
  * PubliGroupe management supports Swisscom offer, recommends
    acceptance
  * Swisscom says 3 investors holding total 25.21% agree to
    accept offer, tender shares
    * Says previous May 27 agreement with Tamedia not affected
  * PubliGroupe board of directors rejects Tamedia’s CHF190
    offer as “insufficient”
    * Takes note of Swisscom agreements in investors Stiftung
      Jean-Robert Gerstenhauer, Consuela Stiftung,
      Erbengemeinschaft Alfred Borter
  * NOTE: Swisscom on May 16 offered CHF200/Shr for PubliGroupe
  * Swisscom statement
  * PubliGroup statement

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Chris Malpass in Berlin at +49-30-70010-6234 or
cmalpass@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Chris Malpass

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: RBA meeting minutes solidify policy on hold; Shell sheds Woodside stake for $5B

***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA MAY ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) YTD: 2.8% (1-year low) v 5.0% PRIOR; Y/Y: -6.7% v +3.4% PRIOR - (AU) AUSTRALIA MAY NEW MOTOR VEHICLE SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.1% PRIOR; Y/Y: -2.0% V -1.8% PRIOR - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 103.2 v 102.2 prior - (SG) SINGAPORE MAY ELECTRONIC EXPORTS Y/Y: -15.3% V -7.4%E; NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS M/M: -7.5% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: -6.6%E V 0.5%E

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 +0.5%, S&P/ASX -0.2%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.4%, Jun S&P500 +0.2% at 1,931, Aug gold -0.3% at $1,271, Jul crude oil -0.3% at $106.63/brl

***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Aussie dollar moved sharply lower on the release of RBA policy meeting minutes from earlier this month that were widely deemed more dovish than expected - AUD/USD and AUD/JPY fell over 30pips to $0.9360 and ¥95.40 respectively, while AUD/NZD hit a 3-week low around NZ$1.08. Most notably, RBA concluded "GDP growth in Australia appeared to have been a little above trend... which was not expected to be sustained in coming quarters (amid) expectation of substantial falls in mining investment, below-average growth of public demand and non-mining investment remaining subdued for a time". This varies substantially from last month's assessment "that growth had picked up a little over the past two quarters" and marks the most clear sign that RBA will not rush to tighten policy until well into 2015.

- Also down under, shares of Australia's largest energy producer Woodside Petroleum were halted after announcement that Shell will slash its 23% stake in the company all the way to 4.5% for about $5B. Woodside will pick up half of those shares for $2.7B. Reports indicating the sell-off does not come as a complete surprise - Shell has long signalled it would reduce its holding.

- Moody's comments noted China's sovereign credit profile is likely to withstand rebalancing challenges, and that its Aa3 rating and stable outlook are underpinned by its macroeconomic strengths as well as by its fiscal and external cushions. Ratings agency did warn that the success of policy measures will be critical for China's ability to negotiate the challenges on the horizon.

- Latest out of the Middle East conflict in Iraq saw the White House negating speculation that US military will coordinate with Iran, indicating the possible discussions will not have a military dimension. Subsequent reports did suggest that US and Iran negotiators will discuss the situation in Iraq as part of Vienna talks that will also address Iran's nuclear program. Separately, US confirmed it will send 275 troops to Iraq for support of US personnel and embassy in Baghdad in light of the weekend terror bombing in the capital.

***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China MOFCOM: Reiterates exports are gradually improving - (CN) China Dairy Association official: China lacks of sufficient dairy cattle to meet milk demand - People's Daily - (JP) Japan PM advisor Hamada: BOJ needs no further easing at this time; Japan should undergo a substantial corporate tax cut - financial press - (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Govt needs permanent replacement revenue for corporate tax cut; Considering reduction in pension payments regardless of price changes - press - (JP) According to the most recent QUICK survey, 31% of large FX market participants no longer expect BOJ to announce more easing, up from 9% in April survey - Nikkei - (IQ) US Pres Obama: US to deploy up to 275 troops to Iraq for support for US personnel, embassy in Baghdad - letter addressed to Congress - (IA) US, Iran to meet in Vienna to discuss situation in Iraq; meeting held alongside nuclear talks - financial press - (US) Fed reportedly considering bond fund exit fees to reduce chances of runs on the market - FT

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY30B in 28-day repos (34th consecutive drain) - GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 4.2 tonnes to 782.9 tonnes (lowest since May 23rd) - JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.09T in 1.5% (1.5% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.459% v 1.453% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.71x v 3.56x prior

***Equities*** US markets: - ANFI: Reports Q1 $0.47 v $0.31e, R$186.6M v $160Me; +27.6% afterhours - GTIV: Kindred increases offer to $14.50/shr from $14, begins tender offer for all outstanding shares; Total deal value $1.7B; +3.9% afterhours - WEX: To acquire Evolution1 for $532.5M in cash; +1.4% afterhours - STLD: Guides Q2 EPS $0.28-0.32 v $0.31e

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Beijing Enlight Media 300251.CN +7.3% (acquisitions); Super Retail Group SUL.AU +1.6% (analyst action); Next Media 282.HK -5.3% (FY13/14 results) - Financials: Sumitomo Corp 8053.JP +0.8% (to sell stake in asset) - Materials: Orora Ltd ORA.AU +4.4% (analyst action); Itochu Corp 8001.JP +2.8% (profit target) - Industrials: Sufa Technology Industry 000777.CN +5.8%, Shenzhen Woer Heat-Shrinkable Material 002130.CN +8.6% (momentum on China Pres Xi's comment) - Technology: Konica Minolta Holdings 4902.JP +8.7% (analyst action); Lenovo Group 992.HK -0.6% (acquisition)

Buy Actelion, May Be 20% Upside to 2016 Consensus EPS, UBS Says

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Buy Actelion, May Be 20% Upside to 2016 Consensus EPS, UBS Says 2014-06-17 03:51:39.523 GMT

By Roger Neill June 17 (Bloomberg) -- UBS reiterates buy, raises PT to SF120 vs SF100 on positive Selexipag data. * Expects upcoming presentation of full Phase III data to provide additional confidence Selexipag will be a blockbuster: UBS * This additional data, including post-hoc analysis, should be presented at CHEST 2014 on Oct. 25-30: UBS * Sees significant upside on Selexipag peak sales, Opsumit peak sales, Opsumit Gross margin * NOTE on June 16: Actelion Rises Most in 2 Yrs After Positive Selexipag Data * Actelion earnings forecasts For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Roger Neill in London at +44-20-7673-2867 or rneill3@bloomberg.net Morwenna Coniam