(Makor) Top Trading Ideas: LONG YAHOO / (SHORT SOFTBANK)

Top Trading Ideas: LONG YAHOO - the Alibaba call / (possible hedge with a short in Softbank)

We recommend going long again Yahoo on the upcoming Alibaba IPO. The market consensus for Alibaba's IPO value is around $150bn with some estimates going as high as $200bn. This IPO will undoubtably be the most successful IPO of the year, and certainly one of the best of all times. Yahoo owns 24% of Alibaba. We had made the case for Yahoo back in October 2012 when the shares were trading at around $16.00 and recommended to exit in May 2013 at around $26.00. Since then, the valuation of Alibaba has exploded further, resulting in a still negative Yahoo stub even on the most conservative estimates for Alibaba. Yahoo shares will most likely re-rate up to the IPO date. We calculate a discount to NAV of 33 to 45%, which is huge by US market standards. We note that the Alibaba stake will account for 100% of Yahoo's NAV in the case of a $150bn valuation. In other words, anyone wanting to subscribe to the Alibaba IPO will be "fully allocated" by just buying Yahoo. FULL REPORT ATTACHED

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: UPIP +84.6%, GNK +33.9%, DEJ +23.3%, COMM +14.3%, AVEO +13.8%, KIOR +8.4%, ANN +7.7%, ASTM +4.6%, YELP +2.5%, JKS +2.2%, DEG +2.1%, TXMD +1.9%, MT +1.9%, TIBX +1.9%, ORAN +1.8%, BBL +1.7%, JDSU +1.7%, WTSL +1.7%, BHP +1.6%, NVS +1.5%, RIO +1.5%, AGO +1.4%, SI +1.4%, ASML +1.3%, EGLE +1.1%, DRYS +0.9%, CMGE+0.9%, GLD +0.9%, SLV +0.9%, AGRO +0.9%, GOLD +0.8%, WLP +0.7%

Gapping down: SYMC -9.6%, INVE -9.3%, DLIA -8.8%, AIR -6.2%, ISR -6.1%, BGMD -4.7%, PBF -4.6%, BLDP -3.7%, ENLK -3.5%, WMC -3.2%, NKE -2.9%, ENVI -2.6%, SONS -2.1%, SGMO -1.7%, TISI -1.7%, ZION -0.7%, UA -0.7%,

WWD : Mulberry CEO Bruno Guillon Resigns

LONDON — Mulberry Group is poised to enter a new chapter as it hunts for a chief executive officer as well as a creative director, and observers insist it should turn back time and revive former strategies.

On Thursday, the company said that Bruno Guillon was stepping down as ceo with immediate effect after two tumultuous years.

Guillon’s tenure was marred by multiple profit warnings — the most recent of which was in January — the resignation of creative director Emma Hill, and the collapse of the company’s share price.

Mulberry shares, which are listed on the London Stock Exchange, have slumped by about 65 percent on an adjusted basis since Guillon arrived at the company. On Thursday, they closed up 5.5 percent to 6.72 pounds, or $11.16, following the news of his departure.

Mulberry is majority owned by Challice Ltd., a company controlled by Ong Beng Seng and Christina Ong. They own 56.2 percent, while the rest is listed on the AIM division of the LSE.

Godfrey Davis, currently the group’s non-executive chairman and previously its ceo, will become executive chairman until a successor for Guillon is found.

Guillon, formerly managing director of Hermès France, took up his role in March 2012, and during his tenure sought to take Mulberry upmarket with higher prices and to build it into an international name that could compete with the big luxury brands.

For nearly a year he was attempting to execute those strategies without a creative director. The brand has not yet named Hill’s successor, and last month canceled its fall catwalk show. Instead, during London Fashion Week, it hosted a presentation and party to launch a new bag designed by Cara Delevingne.

The company declined further comment about its future on Thursday, but industry sources said Mulberry needs to unravel Guillon’s work.

An industry source close to Mulberry said the company should try to convince Hill and Georgia Fendley, Mulberry’s former brand director, to return. “Get Emma and Georgia back, watch the brand rediscover its identity and let the stock price recover,” said the source, who asked not to be identified.

Hill’s last collection was for spring 2014, and she has been pursuing personal projects since leaving Mulberry last year. She spent six years at the brand, and sources said she left because of disagreements with management over creative and operational strategy. Fendley also left last year to focus on her branding and creative agency, Construct London.

Luca Solca, managing director of global luxury goods at Exane BNP Paribas, told WWD: “The problem at Mulberry has been an ill-conceived and badly executed attempt to drive the brand to a higher price point. The truth is that Mulberry was very successful in the accessible and aspirational price segment, but could never make it in the high end, as it was not credible from a content and heritage point of view. What Mulberry has learned from the experience is that it is not enough to hire a ceo from Hermès to change its brand DNA.”

Solca added that Mulberry should “go back to its roots and price where it is credible and desirable to consumers. Megabrands moving upmarket are creating a significant price umbrella and a very interesting opportunity for the likes of Mulberry to exploit; think Michael Kors, Kate Spade, Tory Burch and Longchamp. This is very much where Mulberry should play.”

In January, Mulberry said that sales for the year ending March 31 will likely be flat against last year’s 165 million pounds, or $273.6 million. It pinned the blame on lower-than-expected U.K. retail sales — a result of tough pre-Christmas trading conditions — and wholesale order cancellations from South Korea, which accounts for 20 percent of its wholesale business.

WWD : Li & Fung Eyes Possible Brand Spin-off

HONG KONG — Li & Fung Ltd. posted a 17 percent increase in net profit for full-year 2013, helped by a turnaround in the group’s LF USA business. The company also revealed a possible spin-off of its global brands and licensing business on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Li & Fung’s net profit for the 12-month period ended in December totaled $725 million, while revenues increased 3 percent to $20.7 billion.

The company said that preparation for the proposed spin-off is under way, and that it aims for a listing later this year. If approved, Bruce Rockowitz, Li & Fung’s group president and chief executive officer, will become ceo of the Global Brands Group. Spencer Fung, currently chief operating officer, would take over as ceo of Li & Fung.


“We feel by having two separate public companies, each one can focus on its roots and what it does right and what it does best,” Rockowitz said at a press conference Thursday.

“When you look at Li & Fung, we were historically a sourcing company. We developed a branding business because we wanted to develop the top 10 retailers in the United States. Our core is taking care of other people’s brands. It’s less volatile,” he explained.

The brands business, on the other hand, “has gone through a difficult time,” he acknowledged, but Li & Fung has built up a “great” portfolio and “we hope to make sure that the things that went wrong in the past don’t go wrong in the future. It is more volatile, but it’s a higher-margin business, so I think it’s an opportunity for investors to make their decision,” he continued.

Li & Fung’s trading network, its largest business unit, making up 62 percent of overall profit, reported a 1 percent increase in revenue, totaling $16.3 billion. The unit’s core operating profit rose 3 percent to $539.4 million.

The trading network business depends heavily on Chinese factories, which analysts say has become a source of concern, given rising labor costs. Rockowitz acknowledged rising operating costs in China but said that the country would continue to be a key market.

“China is developing; it’s moving from the coast into the interior. And I can say that, while some factories are definitely moving out of China, they are also moving to the interior of China, and they keep reinventing themselves,” he said. China is the largest market for sourcing, while Vietnam is the second largest and Bangladesh is third.


Li & Fung’s other two major business units, its distribution network and logistics network, also reported improvements in core operating profit and revenue.

The distribution network, which includes LF USA, reported core operating profit of $295.5 million, against a loss of $38.9 million the previous year. Li & Fung said the LF USA business “recovered and produced positive results through margin expansion and cost control.”

Core operating profit at the company’s logistics network unit jumped 50 percent to $35.8 million. Revenues rose 30 percent to $526.3 million, thanks to gains from partnerships plus new business.

Li & Fung noted it had “emerged stronger following a challenging 2012” and that it returned to 2011 operating levels.

“It wasn’t a very strong economic environment in 2013 and that was really the overriding theme, at least economically. In fact, if you go back to October, that was after back to school, that was quite poor, then the U.S. government had a shutdown and that time we were very concerned and we became, I’d say, more pessimistic about the year. We made up a lot of ground in the second half of the year in 2013,” Rockowitz said.

Looking forward, he said he is somewhat positive, noting that “the market itself has been incrementally better overall and slowly getting better, but it’s still not robust.”

The Hong Kong-based company also released a new three-year plan, emphasizing organic growth and investments in its operating platform and infrastructure. Under the plan, Li & Fung’s trading network aims to achieve a core operating profit that exceeds the company’s entire current core operating profit. The firm also aims to double the core operating profit of its logistics business.

Rockowitz highlighted that the company would be putting less emphasis on acquisitions in the future.

“When you look at the past three-year plans, we’ve done a lot of acquisitions, no doubt. Now we have our platform, we have scale in many areas; now we are in a position to leverage what we have and grow organically. Our three-year plan is really based on organic growth. Having said that, there will be some acquisitions.”

Li & Fung made 10 acquisitions in all of 2013 — a “relatively small” number for the company. So far in 2014, the company acquired The Licensing Company Limited, a global licensing agent in Europe.

WWD : Hermès to Push RTW, Watches, Jewelry

PARIS — The Birkin could take a backseat to fashion this year: Hermès International plans to up such fast-growing categories as jewelry, ready-to-wear, shoes and belts.

So says chief executive officer Axel Dumas, who presented the French firm’s full-year results on Thursday, headlined by a record operating margin of 32.4 percent last year, a 0.3-point improvement over 2012 that was lifted partly by deft currency hedging.

Net income in 2013 rose by 6.8 percent to 790 million euros, or $1.05 billion, reflecting higher taxation, particularly in France.

Revenues last year rose 7.8 percent to 3.75 billion euros, or $4.99 billion, as reported.

Dollar figures are converted from euros at average exchange for the 12-month period ended Dec. 31.

Hermès reported operating income rose 8.9 percent to 1.21 billion euros, or $1.62 billion, leaving it with a cash pile that reached a historic high of 1 billion euros, or $1.36 billion.

“We may have a billion in cash, but we’re not Apple yet,” Dumas remarked to a round of chuckles among the analysts assembled at the company’s headquarters on the Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré here.

Sounding sanguine, Dumas voiced confidence for 2014, tinged with caution, echoing the stance of the previous ceo, Patrick Thomas, who retired earlier this year.

Dumas warned analysts to expect a drop in profit in 2014 given strong currency headwinds, particularly in Japan, where a declining yen prompted Hermès to raise prices by 10 percent on Feb. 17. A hike in value-added tax in the island nation, scheduled for April, is likely to further dampen demand.

The ceo sounded more bullish on China, saying consumers there are turning increasingly toward high-quality products whose appeal derives from elite craftsmanship, rather than logos. In addition, more women are shopping for luxury goods in China, and the clampdown on bribes and gifting there is a “fight against corruption, not luxury goods,” he said. Dumas noted that watches and liquors are hardest hit, along with brands associated with gifts, of which Hermès is not one.

“We haven’t seen any real impact on our financials in China,” he said.

In September, the company plans to open its Hermès Maison in Shanghai, only the fifth unit in the world with its own dedicated building and a complete product offering and cultural attractions under one roof. (The others are in New York, Tokyo, Seoul and Paris.) Hermès is also plotting a new unit in Beijing, and an expanded location in Chengdu.

In total, the company plans to open six stores this year, and renovate and enlarge 14 more.

“The idea is to increase the penetration with local customers,” Dumas explained.

He waved off a question about the brand’s Russian clientele, given the political crisis there and in Ukraine, noting the nationality accounts for “well below 5 percent” of the firm’s business, and Russians tend to shop mainly abroad.

Despite morose economic conditions in Europe, Dumas said that all countries have expanded their local clienteles with the exception of Spain and Greece.

The company provided no specific earnings or sales guidance for 2014, vowing to “reinvent itself and push the limits of excellence.”

In a research note, Bernstein Research analyst Mario Ortelli called the earnings underwhelming and said that, still, “we expect Hermès to deliver resilient revenue growth and maintain top-notch EBIT [earnings before interest and taxes] margins and ROIC [return on invested capital] thanks to its strong brand positioning at the top of the ‘exclusive’ niche.”

He cautioned that the stock price is bound to recede as its current pricing reflects an “M&A premium” fanned by the accumulation of a 23.1 percent stake by rival LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton.

(NY Post) Ann Taylor shares surge on new stake in company

Ann Taylor’s parent company has a new investor that sees a gold mine in the retailer’s shares.
Golden Gate Capital, which lately has reaped a bundle from its bets on Zale and Eddie Bauer, disclosed late Thursday it has amassed a 9.5-percent stake in Ann Inc., the apparel chain’s New York-based parent.
Ann shares surged more than 10 percent in after-hours trading, rising above the $40 mark to hit 52-week highs.
The San Francisco investment firm revealed its cache of nearly 4.4 million shares in a 13-D filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, typically signaling an activist stance.
However, in a Thursday letter to the company, Golden Gate execs took pains to praise Ann Taylor’s management under CEO Kay Krill.
In addition to Ann notching same-store sales increases in 14 of the past 16 fiscal quarters, Golden Gate execs noted that the company has added 68 new stores during the past three years, even as it has repositioned its brands.
“We believe that [Ann Inc.] is a great business, with a thoughtful strategy, led by an extremely competent management team who has a long track record of success,” Golden Gate said in the letter.
Still, the investment firm said it believes Ann’s stock is “significantly undervalued,” and sees room for operational improvements in several areas.
Despite sluggish mall traffic that has dogged mall-based chains in recent seasons, Golden Gate said Ann can add more stores in the US and abroad, and believes the retailer’s sales can increase to as much as $400 per square foot.
Golden Gate said Ann also needs “a clear and aggressive omni-channel strategy,” and advocated the development of “sub-brands” and new accessories.
The company, in a statement, said it welcomes new investors.

(UBS) Remy Cointreau - Still to early to buy - note attached

* We expect Q4FY to remain heavily impacted by Chinese destocking
Remy reports 2014FY sales on 17 April. We expect Remy's Cognac organic sales to
decline -25% in Q4FYE y/y (-32% in Q3FY y/y). This performance will still be heavily
impacted by China destocking (China c35% of EBIT), and we do not believe that the
Chinese New Year has shown a meaningful inflection point in trend. However, Remy is
holding pricing firm in China. In the US, the high end on-trade is proving more resilient
than casual dining, but we expect Remy's shipments to run somewhat below depletions
in Q4FYE. UBSe -9.7% group organic sales decline for 14FY (-10.6% for Q4FYE)
compared with -7.5% previously.

* We now assume -33% organic EBIT decline for 2014FYE
Remy's former CEO indicated that 14FYE organic EBIT could be -20/-25% in November
2013. However, given greater than expected China destocking in Q4FY we lower our
assumption from -22% to -33%. Remy has indicated that every extra month of
destocking in Greater China (all depletion trends alike) impacts 14FY group EBIT by 8-
10%. In addition we believe A&P spend will remain high in 14FY in addition to higher
distribution costs (Remy is opening owned distribution in the UK on 1 April).

* Remy remains at the sharp end of the China anti-extravagance initiatives
While we remain positive on global Cognac mid to long-term, Remy's recovery will
likely lag its peers in China given that it over-indexes those channels impacted by antiextravagance
in China (35-40% of its China sales), and lacks the global distribution of
Pernod or Moet Hennessy to diversify demand as rapidly. While we expect 5% organic
sales growth for Cognac in 15FYE, we expect H115FY to see continued destocking.

* Valuation: Neutral, some valuation support from Cognac inventory value
We cut px EPS by -16% in 14FY (organic downgrade and higher tax rate of 33% on
country mix) and -17% in 15FY. We lower our DCF-based PT to €60, seeing some
support in the value of Remy's Cognac inventory (market value of 2-3x the book value
of €946m in 13FY), the potential to resume the buy back or make acquisitions given
1.7x net debt/EBITDA for 14FYE. Next catalyst is Pernod Asia seminar on 27 March.

>>> Crest Nicholson shareholder Deutsche Bank rumoured to be selling 6.6% stake

Crest Nicholson shareholder Deutsche Bank rumoured to be selling 6.6% stake

Crest Nicholson shareholder Deutsche Bank was rumoured to be offloading a 6.6% shareholding in the listed UK-based residential builder via a secondary placing, the Financial Times reported. The newspaper’s market report section did not cite a source for the rumour.

Crest Nicholson’s share price closed 2p up at 400p in London yesterday, 20 March, valuing the company at GBP 1.00bn (EUR 1.19bn).

Financial Times