>>> US Companies reporting tomorrow

* McDonald's (MCD) is expected to report Q1 EPS of $1.24 (vs $1.26 last year) on revs of $6.71 bln (+1.6% y/y). Earnings were released at 7:58am ET last quarter. Comps are expected to be roughly flat/slightly positive. On last quarter's earnings call, MCD reaffirmed expectations for US commodity costs to increase 1-2% in FY14, with more pressure in the first half of the year. Europe's expected commodity cost increase for FY14 was also at 1-2%, with more pressure in the second half of the year. CMG last week warned of higher costs from increased beef prices Commentary regarding competition will be of interest after YUM's Taco Bell launched Breakfast offerings at the end of Q1; BKW, WEN; SBUX.
* Cable and media giant Comcast (CMCSA) is expected to report Q1 EPS of $0.64 vs. ($0.51 last year) on rev of $17.0 bln (+11%). Q4 results impressed the Street with strong user metrics (co added video subs after losing sibs for 26 straight quarters), NBCU profitability and success with X1 roll out. Co has offered to acquire smaller Time Warner Cable (TWC) in a cash and stock deal. Antitrust is somewhat of a concern but the co's market's do not overlap very much and it is assumed that mgmt (with Democratic ties) wouldn't have pursued the deal if they didn't think they could push it through regulators; cable: CHTR, DISH, DTV, media: FOXA, CBS, DIS, VIA.B, TWX, AMCX, DISCA.
* Industrial Giant United Technologies (UTX) is expected to report Q1 EPS of $1.27 on sales of $14.7 bln -- somewhat stale estimates -- co guided for EPS of $1.25 on sales of $14.5 ln on March 13; consensus called for EPS of $1.39 on sales of $14.9 bln at the time. Co has guided for FY14 EPS of $6.55-6.85 on sales of ~$64 bln; XLI.
* Defense contractor Lockheed Martin (LMT) is expected to report Q1 EPS of $2.53 (vs. $2.33 last year) on sales of $10.89 bln. Co has guided for FY14 EPS of $10.25-10.55 on sales of $44.0-45.5 bln; orders $41.5-43 bln; RTN, NOC, GD, BAESY.

FT : Nike’s FuelBand runs into trouble

Nike’s FuelBand runs into trouble

The race to dominate the nascent wearable technology market is already witnessing early stumbles, even before a potential winner has finished limbering up.
Nike is considering pulling its FuelBand device out of the competition ahead of Apple’s entry later this year. Following a report on tech news site CNET, Nike confirmed it was laying off staff from its digital sports team and refused to commit to future device launches, although it insisted the FuelBand remained an “important part of our business”.

Health-tracking gadgets from the likes of Nike, Fitbit, and Jawbone measure how far the wearer walks or runs in a day, the vigour of a workout and the quality of their sleep. Such devices have been tipped as the next big thing in technology after the smartphone, yet some think Apple will trounce them all when it launches its much-anticipated “iWatch”.
Sources familiar with Nike’s plans say it will focus on making apps instead of the higher-priced but lower-margin FuelBand hardware, after growing an online community of 20m people.
The company’s decision is complicated by the longstanding partnership and board relationships between Apple and Nike. Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, has served on Nike’s board since 2005, and in 2006, the two companies announced a partnership with the Nike+iPod product.
The move follows Fitbit’s recent recall of its million-selling Force product after thousands of complaints that the wristband caused skin irritation. That, in turn, echoed Jawbone’s 2011 recall of its fitness wristband, Up, due to faulty hardware.
However, Nike’s withdrawal marks the first serious test of whether technology, sports or fashion companies will dominate wearable devices, which have so far seen more hype than substance. Analysts say that Nike conceding defeat in hardware could send a warning to other fashion brands considering joining the race.
The field is still wide open in the fitness tracker market, which analysts at IHS predict will reach $2.3bn in revenues by 2017, through cumulative device sales of 250m over the next five years.
NPD, a researcher which tracks sales in general retailers but not from in-house stores such as the NikeTown, put Fitbit as the clear leader of the $330m US market last year, with Nike lagging behind in third place.
Ben Bajarin, a technology analyst at Creative Strategies, says consumers quickly tire of the simple activity data that today’s devices offer.
“For wearables to succeed, consumers will need to find value in the data the device is recording,” said Mr Bajarin. “Apple is setting up the iPhone to be the centre of this wearable accessory ecosystem.”
The early activity tracker in Nike running shoes allowed information on a workout’s time, distance and calories to be shown on an iPod screen. Eight years later, the $150 FuelBand offered broadly similar capabilities, with overall activity measured in the company's proprietary “NikeFuel” points.
Meanwhile, Apple’s so-called iWatch, expected to launch later this year, is rumoured to track much more detailed fitness information, including heart rate and even blood health.
An accompanying app dubbed “Healthbook” will collect information from other sources in a single Apple service, much like the iPhone’s existing Passbook digital wallet for tickets and loyalty cards, according to reports.
Market-watchers have said that the longstanding relationship between Apple and Nike would be tested by this coming collision between their products.
As our Digital Sport priorities evolve, we expect to make changes within the team
- Nike
Nonetheless, the collaboration between the two companies has ostensibly remained strong. Nike launched a new motion-tracking app onstage alongside Apple at last year’s debut of the iPhone 5s.
The question-mark over the FuelBand’s fate will serve as a warning to other clothing brands that had hoped their experience in fashion or fitness might win out over the current crop of wearable devices, which have often been criticised for poor aesthetics or comfort.
It also highlights the complexities of hardware manufacturing for non-tech specialists, especially in wearable technology.
A Nike spokesperson said it would change the looks of the latest “SE” version of the FuelBand, with new colours, but would not commit to updating the underlying hardware.
“As a fast-paced, global business we continually align resources with business priorities,” Nike said.
“As our Digital Sport priorities evolve, we expect to make changes within the team and there will be a small number of lay-offs. We do not comment on individual employment matters.”
Nike added: “The Nike+ FuelBand SE remains an important part of our business. We will continue to improve the Nike+ FuelBand App, launch new METALUXE colours, and we will sell and support the Nike+ FuelBand SE for the foreseeable future.”
Apple declined to comment.
Nike’s move could avoid a stand-off similar to the conflict Apple faced with Google a few years ago. Google’s then-chief Eric Schmidt left Apple’s board in 2009 after its Android smartphone software came into closer competition with the iPhone. Apple responded by ejecting Google Maps from its devices.
“Nike, which is arguably one of the longest-running participants in fitness devices, is getting out. What does that tell us about prospects?” said Jan Dawson, tech analyst with Jackdaw, on Twitter. “If it was selling well enough, they’d keep selling it. Suspect it isn’t.”

(NYT) Spurning Merger Approaches, AstraZeneca Pursues Own Path

Spurning Merger Approaches, AstraZeneca Pursues Own Path

The British drug company AstraZeneca said no to a tie-up with Pfizer, turning down the possibility of one of the biggest drug mergers in recent history.

Whether such a deal would have made sense is another matter, because the British drug maker is trying to improve its fortunes on its own and Pfizer in the past has found that big acquisitions can sometimes prove more distracting than helpful.

In recent months, Pfizer made a number of informal takeover approaches to AstraZeneca, according to a person briefed on the matter who is not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions. One of those tentative approaches valued the smaller pharmaceutical company at about £60 billion, or nearly $100 billion, according to The Sunday Times.

At that level, the deal would be one of the biggest ever in the pharmaceutical industry, surpassing Pfizer’s $90 billion takeover of Warner-Lambert.

Pfizer would probably have used some of the cash and short-term investments on its balance sheet — about $32.4 billion as of the end of the year — as part of the deal.

A takeover of its British competitor would also have made use of cash that Pfizer holds overseas, since buying an American rival like Bristol-Myers Squibb would incur a big tax bill. Pfizer said that it had about $69 billion in earnings from international subsidiaries as of Dec. 31.

But the board of AstraZeneca viewed the approaches as opportunistic and ill timed, with too small a takeover premium, the person briefed on the matter said. As of Friday, the company’s market value stood at just under £48 billion.

The two are not in talks, according to people briefed on the state of the discussions. Representatives for both companies declined to comment.

To Pfizer, AstraZeneca may be attractive because of its portfolio of cancer drugs, an area that the American company has also made a priority as it seeks to restock its product pipeline. The company’s shares have fallen 1.4 percent over the past 12 months.

AstraZeneca hopes to begin late-stage clinical trials this year of at least one drug that works by unleashing the body’s immune system to attack tumors. This is one of the hottest areas in oncology, with doctors predicting a revolution in treatment and securities analysts predicting billions of dollars in sales for successful drugs.

The company is considered to be behind Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck and Roche in the race to bring such drugs to market. But the market is expected to be big enough for several participants.

AstraZeneca hopes to win approval for olaparib, a new type of drug to treat ovarian and breast cancer.

Meanwhile, Pfizer is no stranger to big deals, having struck three enormous ones over the past decade: the takeover of Warner-Lambert in 2000, the $60 billion purchase of Pharmacia in 2002 and the $68 billion acquisition of Wyeth in 2009.

But rather than seek out a merger partner, AstraZeneca has been trying to improve its fortunes on its own over the past few years. It has suffered declining revenue and profit because of the loss of patent protection on some of its best-selling drugs, while it has experienced setbacks in developing new drugs.

Its revenue in 2013 was $25.7 billion, down 8 percent, while what the company calls core earnings per share, which excludes restructuring and certain other costs, fell 26 percent to $5.05. The company is projecting further declines in 2014.

Pascal Soriot has been trying to cut costs, speed up decision making, and focus drug development on selected diseases since he became AstraZeneca's chief executive in 2012.
AstraZeneca, via Reuters
Pascal Soriot has been trying to cut costs, speed up decision making, and focus drug development on selected diseases since he became AstraZeneca’s chief executive in 2012.
In 2012, the company named Pascal Soriot, formerly the head of pharmaceuticals at Roche, as its new chief executive. Mr. Soriot has been trying to cut costs, speed up decision making and focus drug development on selected diseases.

AstraZeneca has made a number of small acquisitions to bolster its pipeline. Perhaps the most significant was its agreement to pay at least $2.7 billion to buy out Bristol-Myers’ share of a diabetes joint venture, leaving AstraZeneca with sole control of a portfolio of products.

One new product that AstraZeneca has been counting on for growth, the clot-busting drug Brilinta, has not gained much traction in the United States. Mr. Soriot has said that sales in the United States were being slowed by an investigation by the Department of Justice, which is believed to be looking into whether the results of a clinical trial were manipulated to make Brilinta look better than the comparison drug, Plavix, in preventing heart attacks and strokes.

Shares in AstraZeneca have risen 13 percent over the past 12 months.

Not all analysts and investors believe a deal for AstraZeneca makes sense. Timothy Anderson, a pharmaceutical analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Company, noted on Monday that the American drug maker has been working to split itself up into separate, smaller units.

“Acquiring AstraZeneca would take Prizer in a direction that is the polar opposite of what management has been discussing for about the past three years,’’ he wrote. “Many investors and industry observers alike feel that Pfizer is in its currently difficult position precisely because of prior mega-mergers.”

Mr. Anderson added: “Nearly every big drug company that has undergone large mergers now laments how disruptive transactions like these are to important business functions such as R.&D. Pfizer has said the same.”

In a quick survey of institutional investors conducted by Mark Schoenbaum, an analyst at the ISI Group, 51 percent said that the deal did not make sense from Pfizer’s point of view. Some 49 percent of the 194 respondents said the rumored price of $80 a share would be fair, 41 percent said it would be too high and 10 percent too low.

Mr. Schoenebaum himself concluded that such a deal would add shareholder value for Pfizer and would give it access to the important new type of cancer drug.

“Growing bigger (and, in PFE’s view, better) doesn’t at all mean PFE can’t split up,’’ he wrote in a note on Sunday, referring to Pfizer by its ticker symbol.

WSJ : Barrick and Newmont: Miners Become Majors

Barrick and Newmont: Miners Become Majors

The best news the gold-mining sector could hope for is a deal—just not the one that looks closest to happening.

Newmont Mining's NEM +5.14% stock jumped Monday on news of a deal that isn't happening, at least not yet. The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that talks between the company and rival Barrick Gold ABX.T -4.19% about a merger had broken down. Last week saw news on another potential gold deal, except this one has actual offers, with Yamana Gold YRI.T -4.57% and Agnico-Eagle Mines AEM.T -4.38% battling Goldcorp GG +0.93% to buy Osisko Mining. OSK.T -4.88%

Osisko now trades above the implied price of the latest offer, despite looking overpriced already. But it is the deal apparently being contemplated by Newmont and Barrick that the sector really needs.

Big Gold is in a similar position to large oil companies just before their megamergers at the turn of the century. Gold hasn't collapsed in the way oil prices did then. But it has dropped below $1,300 an ounce even as the industry's average all-in cost of mining the metal remains above $1,400, according to Citigroup.

One reason costs are high is that, once a miner is a certain size, it is difficult to find projects that move the needle on growth. Barrick, for instance, produced north of seven million ounces of gold last year. Growing that by, say, 5% requires developing a mine with perhaps five million ounces of reserves or more. Like giant oil fields, those aren't easy to come by.

Better, as the major oil companies did, to let expansion take second place to synergies. The big opportunity for large commodity producers is to combine assets and dispose of the less desirable ones, lowering average costs and raising average returns for the remaining portfolio.

The $1 billion of annual synergies figure being talked about would be worth $6.5 billion, taxed and capitalized at 10 times—equivalent to almost half of Newmont's market capitalization. Just as Big Oil did, it would be crucial to structure Barrick-Newmont as an all-stock deal with little or no premium paid. That would provide shareholders with a genuine pooling of assets.

It would also avoid the mistakes of the gold industry's last growth and acquisition binge, which risk being repeated in the battle for Osisko. It is also why, despite the setback to talks, a merger between Barrick and Newmont is a virtual certainty.

>>> Midday Market Summary: An Uneventful Trading Day So Far

Midday Market Summary: An Uneventful Trading Day So Far

Today's midday summary is going to be short and sweet because there's simply not a lot of plot lines today. There have been a handful of earnings reports, only one economic release, and an intriguing M&A rumor. European markets, meanwhile, remained closed for the Easter holiday. Some Asian markets were open, but trading there was mixed, on the light side, and inconsequential for the most part in terms of its influence here.

What has taken place here has been a mostly range-bound trade for the major indices that has had a few moments of waffling but no significant moments of true conviction on either the buy side or the sell side. The major indices are all up between 0.1% and 0.3%.

There isn't a single sector in the S&P 500 that is up, or down, at least 1.0%. Health care leads on the upside with a 0.6% gain while the consumer staples sector leads on the downside with a 0.1% loss. The outperformance of the health care sector has been aided by a report that Pfizer (PFE 30.58, +0.33) may be considering a deal to acquire AstraZeneca (AZN 67.07, +3.58) for as much as $100 bln.

The earnings results from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 4.16, +0.47), Halliburton (HAL 62.52, +1.62), Hasbro (HAS 54.98, +0.37), and Kimberly-Clark (KMB 111.01, -1.53) were all better than expected. Each of those stocks has benefited as a result, with the exception of Kimberly-Clark.

IBM (IBM 192.41, +2.40) is trying to bounce back from the pounding it took on Thursday after it reported earnings. It is currently the best-performing Dow component on no new news.

Separately, the Leading Indicators report for March increased 0.8%, which was in-line with the consensus estimate. That was the third straight month of gains and above the 0.5% increase reported for February. It is a seemingly encouraging data point for future economic activity, yet the Treasury market so far is contradicting such assumptions based on the gains seen at the back end of the yield curve, which is more sensitive to rising interest rates that would accompany stronger growth. The 10-yr note is up five ticks (yielding 2.70%) while the 30-yr bond is up 11 ticks (yielding 3.50%).

Trading volume is understandably on the light side, totaling just 241 mln shares so far at the NYSE versus 286 mln shares at this same point last Monday.

>>> US Notable movers of interest


Notable movers of interest

Large Cap Gainers
  • AZN (67.01 +5.54%): Seeing reports that Pfizer (PFE) is considering a GBP 60 bln (~$100 bln) bid for the company
  • NEM (24.83 +5.48%): Strength on WSJ report that merger talks between NEM and Barrick Gold (ABX) have broken down
  • CHTR (124.22 +5.42%): Reuters reporting that Comcast (CMCSA) is in talks with Charter over divestitures related to Comcast's takeover of Time Warner Cable (TWC)
Large Cap Losers
  • TRP (44.83 -3.74%): Weakness following further delay on decision of Keystone XL pipeline; downgraded to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform at CIBC World Markets
  • ABX (17.35 -3.50%): Weakness on WSJ report that merger talks with Newmont Mining (NEM) have broken down
  • TCK (21.82 -1.13%): Announced it has subscribed for and acquired an additional 2 mln common shares of Erdene Resource Development at a cost of $0.175 per common share, in a private placement conducted by Erdene
Mid Cap Gainers
  • AMD (4.14 +12.33%): Beat quarterly EPS by $0.02 ($0.02 vs $0.00 estimate), revs rose 28.4% yoy to $1.4 bln vs $1.34 bln estimate; sees Q2 revs +0-6% quarter over quarter (~$1.40-1.48 bln) vs $1.36 bln estimate
  • CSGP (172.04 +3.89%): Upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley & Co
  • CPN (22.2 +3.88%): Agreed to sell six Southeast power plants for $1.57 bln
Mid Cap Losers
  • ATHN (136.45 -6.27%): Missed quarterly EPS by $0.05 ($0.12 ex items vs $0.17 estimate), revs rose 29.8% yoy to $163.03 mln vs $170.45 mln estimate; sees FY14 revs of $725-755 mln vs $751 mln estimate, adjusted EPS of $0.98-1.10 vs $1.09 estimate
  • CPHD (45.05 -6.01%): Beat quarterly EPS by $0.06 (-$0.01 ex items vs -$0.07 estimate), revs rose 16.3% yoy to $106.9 mln vs $104.98 mln estimate; sees FY14 EPS of $0.19-0.24 ex items (lowered from $0.24-0.29) vs $0.26 estimate, revs of $446-461 mln vs $457.71 mln estimate
  • LII (86.51 -3.11%): Beat quarterly EPS by $0.01 ($0.42 ex items vs $0.41 estimate), revs rose 4.0% yoy to $695.4 mln vs $701.4 mln estimate; reaffirmed FY14 EPS guidance of $4.20-4.60 ex items vs $4.57 estimate, revs +3-7%

FT Lex : Cement makers: footprints

Cement makers: footprints

Case for letting Lafarge and Holcim merge is already at risk
Lafarge cement trucks wait to be loaded at the Lafarge cement terminal in Paris©Bloomberg
Any regulator who lets through a merger simply because the parties promise a “European champion” needs a cold shower. If the merger already involves two big players in an industry with huge overlaps, then turn down the temperature further.

The case for letting Lafarge and Holcim merge into a cement giant is already at risk of championitis. It is easy to romanticise a combined company that would have a global “footprint” – important, when cement is sold locally – years before rising rivals in China or Latin America achieve it. Romantic, maybe. But not necessarily protective of customers in Europe (or value-creating for shareholders). Regulators should focus on whether the assets which Lafarge and Holcim might divest in Europe could credibly create a sizeable new competitor.
So far, €5bn in assets have been put forward by the companies, enough to cut the European share of their combined portfolio from a third to a fifth. Regulators could demand more. Interestingly, they did hew a fresh entrant out of recent dealmaking in the sector, Mittal Investments-owned Hope Construction Materials. Now one of the UK’s largest independent cement suppliers, Mittal bought these assets as part of the remedy for Lafarge’s joint venture with Tarmac.
Hope was in part a bet on a UK recovery. Similar calls in the several European countries where the overlaps exist between Lafarge and Holcim may not be as appealing for big private buyers. That leaves major players lower down the list. Some of these are already dealing with their own capacity issues. Mexico’s Cemex, for example, sold a tenth less cement last year than in 2009, Morgan Stanley has estimated, and has $16bn in debt. Other EM players – Nigeria’s Dangote cement, anyone? – may see value in diversifying into Europe. A big step for it. The buyers may need some cold showers, first.

(ZH) A Summary Of What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling


Link to article ZeroHedge : {http://bit.ly/RFkQW3}

A Summary Of What Hedge Funds Are Buying And Selling

Large speculators reduced ther S&P 500 positioning to net short this week and their NASDAQ longs to a one-year lowas BofAML reports on CFTC data. Macros funds decreased their long exposure to S&P500 and NASDAQ to now hold short exposure. They also decreased their long exposure to US Dollar (raising their AUD longs to a record high) and maintained their long exposure to 10-year Treasuries. They decreased their long exposure to commodities and increased their long exposure to EM. Across all asset classes, positioning is at extremes.
Significant HF moves across asset classes, based on CFTC data
Equities. Large specs decreased S&P 500 to net short and reduced NASDAQ longs. They also increased Russell 2000 shorts last week
Agriculture. Large specs increased their long positioning in Soybean futures but decreased longs in Corn and Wheat futures
Metals. Large specs decrease Gold and Silver longs and increased Copper shorts. They maintained Platinum and Palladium longs.
Energy. Large specs increased their Crude longs and Gasoline longs. They also increased Natural Gas shorts but Heating Oil shorts.
FX. Large specs increased their EUR, AUD and GBP longs. They decreased their JPY shorts and MXN longs position.
Interest Rates. Large specs increased their short positions in 10-year while increasing their long position in 30-yr. They also reduced 2-year shorts

 

One can't help but see this positioning and wonder just who the big boys are selling to - as we noted here,
Based on Bloomberg's Smart Money Flow indicator, there is a very significant amount of distribution going on... the question is just who is soaking up the smart money selling? Company buybacks, Johnny 5, or a greater-fool retail investor?

 

 

Perhaps this chart from Lance Roberts at STA Wealth provides some color for who?

 

However, the idea that individual investors are still "out of the market" should be taken with a bit of caution. The chart below is data compiled by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) which surveys it membership on portfolio allocation.  The data is compiled and released monthly. 

 

 

 

With cash hovering at the lowest levels since the "Tech Wreck," and equity exposure at the highest, investors are more than just "warming up" to equities. They are effectively "all in" with respect to the financial markets.

>>> ETF Weekly FLOW

ETF Weekly FLOW -

Equities pull in >$11.99b MTD, fixed income attracts ~$1.81b through April 17, paring last week’s MTD net inflows

* Equity inflows: $6.46b U.S. domestic, $5.54b intl,


* NOTE: SPY, EEM, IVV top 3 net inflows; QQQ, IWM, GLD top outflows; QQQ most outflows at $2.16b by sector, XLE most inflows by sector at $1.16b


* Equity flows by asset class (domestic):
* Inflows: Energy $1.59b; Real Estate $773.97m; Utilities $681.23m; Consumer Staples $426.75m; Industrials $346.05m; Materials $169.83m; Communications $93.40m
* Outflows: Technology $2.2b; Consumer Discretionary, $456.40m; Financial $355.73m; Thematic $244.90m; Health Care $44.23m
* Equity flows by sector:
* Inflows: Large-cap $6.79b; Broad Market $1.02b; Sector Focused $779.64m
* Outflows: Small-Cap $2.21b; Mid-Cap $53.35m;