NY Post : Dish Network could be left standing in telecom-deal musical chairs

Spectrum kingpin Charlie Ergen may have run out of potential dance partners.
Ergen, the chairman of Dish Network, has been amassing billions of dollars of spectrum and planning to deliver digital video outside the pay-TV bundle — but with the just-announced $48.5 billion acquisition of DirecTV by AT&T, he could get left out of the fast-paced telecom deal-athon, some on Wall Street said Monday.
Craig Moffett, founder of research firm MoffettNathson, is one who thinks Ergen’s options are rapidly diminishing. Moffett on Monday downgraded Dish to sell.
“Dish Network has just been left standing,” Moffett told investors, some of whom had initially believed the AT&T bid for DirecTV was simply a way of getting Ergen to make his own move on the country’s No. 1 satellite-TV service.
“Dish Network hasn’t been so much ‘smoked out,’ as it has merely been … smoked. It loses both of its best exit options,” Moffett told investors in a note Monday.
Dish stock closed down about 1 percent, at $59.36. Other potential partners such as Verizon or Google seem more like “wishful thinking,” says the veteran telecom/pay-TV analyst.
Not everyone thinks Ergen is out of options, however.
Amy Yong of Macquarie Research issued a note Monday suggesting Dish could make a counteroffer for DirecTV at $120 per share, much higher than AT&T’s $95.
Such a bid seemed a long shot, given Ergen’s recent comments that DirecTV’s price had gotten too frothy for his taste.
A more likely scenario, according to Yong, is Dish getting together with Sprint, which has been eyeing a hook-up with rival T-Mobile — a merger that would have a hard time winning regulatory approval.
Even so, there’s bad blood between Sprint backer Masayoshi Son and Ergen. The two fought over ownership of Sprint with Softbank boss Son calling Ergen a big-mouth and Ergen appealing to American investors to shun the bid from Son’s Japan-headquartered bank.
Meanwhile, Paul Gallant, an analyst at Guggenheim Partners, says the AT&T/DirecTV get-together will make it harder for Sprint to execute its proposed takeover of T-Mobile, with regulators looking at a rapidly shrinking landscape.
Meanwhile, a second possible scenario for Dish emerged on Monday. Barclays analyst Jonathan Chaplin thinks a Dish-Verizon combination is the most likely outcome.

NY Post : AT&T merger happened because of CEO’s mistakes

AT&T’s $48.5 billion agreement to merge with DirecTV, while hailed by the telco giant’s CEO Randall Stephenson as “something very special,” was born years ago out of several clear missteps by the executive.
In 2008, one year after Stephenson became its CEO, AT&T was unable to outbid Verizon at highly anticipated government spectrum auctions.
That same year, when rival Alltel and its valuable spectrum went on the block — spectrum that was a perfect fit for AT&T — Stephenson was again outbid by Verizon.
In the third misstep, Stephenson had AT&T in 2010 so wrapped up in an ultimately unsuccessful bid for T-Mobile that, sources said, it failed to focus on a spectrum sale by Comcast.
Again, Verizon beat AT&T to the punch.
The missed deals, in part, led to AT&T, the No. 1 wireless company in 2007 when Stephenson took over as CEO, falling far behind Verizon.
“AT&T could be neck and neck with Verizon, and they are not,” a telecom consultant said. “The idea of now buying a video platform does not make any sense.”
As of Dec. 31, Verizon had 96 million post-paid wireless customers, compared with AT&T’s 73 million.
Perhaps more important, AT&T in 2007 had double Verizon’s free cash flow (net cash from operations minus capital expenditures). Now, the rivals have reversed positions.
Verizon in 2013 generated $22 billion in free cash flow, compared to AT&T’s $14 billion.
Stephenson said in 2007 that video represented a once-in-a-decade opportunity to build AT&T’s next billion-dollar business. Without the spectrum, its U-Verse video has just 5.7 million customers.
AT&T declined comment.

FT : Israel makes headway in cyber security

Israel makes headway in cyber security

In a quiet corner of an Israeli farming village, Tanya sits at her computer and chats online with some of the most skilled hackers in cyberspace. Some are just having fun; others are planning heists of credit card details, or denial-of-service attacks that would cripple targeted websites.
None of them knows who they are talking to, or indeed that they are all interacting with the same person – Tanya juggles more than 20 different identities and screen names, each with its own avatar, full background history and social media accounts.

Tanya (who declined to disclose her last name) works for SenseCy, an Israeli cyber intelligence service that aims to use old-school spy tactics to unearth – and warn clients about – cyber attacks before they happen. By engaging with the hackers on their own turf Tanya learns who will be targeted next, and how.
SenseCy is part of a new generation of cyber security companies that have risen in the past few years to challenge incumbents such as Intel Security, formerly McAfee, that are best known for their PC antivirus software.
Cyber attacks are rising, up 14 per cent last year, according to data from Cisco, and boardrooms are getting increasingly worried about the potential threats to their business, after a Russian teenager was linked with the theft of over 70,000 customer details from Target, the US retailer.
The new generation of cyber security companies is growing in clusters in Silicon Valley, Washington DC and Atlanta but Israel is making headway: a quarter of all venture capital funded cyber security start ups are headquartered in Israel, according to research firm PrivCo.
Instead of using firewalls or other automated cyber-defences, SenseCy and its rivals CrowdStrike and iSight Partners, which work with the FBI and NSA, run private intelligence services that serve as a proactive form of cybersecurity.
In December 2013, Tanya and her colleagues heard the first stirrings of a cyber attack codenamed #OpIsrael planned for April this year by AnonGhost, a Tunisian hacktivist group. In closed forums, AnonGhost provided supporters with a target list and attack tools, including a self-developed malware called AnonGhost DdoSer.
Since SenseCy’s operatives were already inside the loop, they were able to download and analyse the malware when AnonGhost released it. The information was passed to clients on the target list, enabling them to reconfigure their cyber-defences and repel the attack.
“We collect data about cyber threats and send that data analysed to our clients,” says Assaf Keren, VP of Cyber Solutions at SenseCy and the former head of Israeli government cyber security. “We have a very large capacity and methodology in how to go online and find information which is available on the internet but not available to somebody just googling ‘cyber-threats’.”
“We do something called ‘virtual humint’ [human intelligence]. We operate avatars or characters using our analysts. We create content and a personality and put them inside the areas which are interesting,” he says.
SenseCy was established in February by parent company Terrogence, which has used techniques such as those used by Tanya for the past decade, though mainly to expose potential real-world terror and criminal plots.
“Our clients are everybody who has something to protect. They range from governments to midsize enterprises,” says Mr Keren.
Unlike many Israeli start-ups, where the founders learnt technical skills and bonded during their military service, none of SenseCy’s analysts draws directly on Israeli military experience because such tactics are not yet part of the official cyber-defence strategy of Israel – or that of most other countries.
“The methodology was developed here almost 10 years ago and is unique,” says Mr Keren. “We are teaching governments how to do this. Government intelligence agencies generally started getting into this field two years ago,” he says.
SenseCy analysts must know how to juggle online identities and operate in hostile cyberspace. The company specialises in Arabic, Farsi, Turkish, Russian, European languages and English, reflecting Israel’s immigrant population. Mr Keren admits that Chinese and Asian languages and cultures are more of a challenge.
Keren Elazari, a cybersecurity industry analyst for Gigaom.com and former hacker, says such work complements mechanised cyber-defences.
“The firewalls and antivirus engines are simply not detecting a lot of these advanced attacks. If we can get them with intelligence from those forums and know more about how that malware works, we are that much more prepared to stop it,” says Ms Elazari.
“This intelligence-gathering capability and presence takes years to cultivate,” says Ms Elazari. “It’s becoming complementary and sometimes even mandatory in order to enhance whatever the technical measures can do.”
Giora Engel, a founder of Light Cyber, an Israeli cyber security company specialising in automated breach detection, says the ‘human intelligence’ approach has its limits because a tightly knit group is less likely to communicate through semi-public chat.
“It’s complementary to what we do, but it can’t cover the whole attack surface,” says Mr Engel. “Many attacks are carried out by small groups of people who already know each other and don’t use these kind of forums. You cannot penetrate a group that already knows each other.”

(BFW) Vodafone Sees FY15 Ebitda Decline as 4Q Service Rev. Beats


MORE: Vodafone Sees FY15 Ebitda Decline as 4Q Service Rev. Beats
2014-05-20 06:15:29.759 GMT


By Sam Chambers
     May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Vodafone sees FY15 Ebitda GBP11.4b -
GBP11.9b; says forecast primarily reflects impact of Project
Spring investment, FX moves.
  * Sees positive FCF in FY15 after capex and before M&A,
    spectrum and restructuring costs
  * Sees capex ~GBP19b in the two years to March 2016
  * Reports 4Q organic service rev. growth -3.8% vs est. -3.9%
    (estimate compiled by Bloomberg News)
  * FY sales GBP43.62b vs est. GBP43.77b, FY Ebitda falls 5.4%
    y/y to GBP12.83b
  * Net income from cont. ops. GBP11.31b
  * Proposes final dividend of 7.47p/shr vs BDVD forecast
    7.47p/shr; intends to grow its DPS
  * As a result of steps taken to improve commercial
    performance, co. says it’s begun to see encouraging early
    signs in Germany and Italy
  * Conf. call scheduled for 1pm, +44-20-3426-2845
  * First take
  * Statement
  * Earnings preview


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Sam Chambers in London at +44-20-7673-2021 or
schambers7@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net

>>> Dailymotion: Orange close to reaching agreement with Canal Plus and Microsof

Dailymotion: Orange close to reaching agreement with Canal Plus and Microsoft

Listed French telecoms group Orange, is understood to be close to reaching an agreement for the sale of a minority stake in online video website Dailymotion, French daily Le Figaro reported. The report, which did not reveal its source of information, said that Canal Plus, the French television broadcaster, could acquire a 40% stake in Dailymotion, while Washington-based software giant Microsoft, could take a 10% stake, leaving Orange with the remaining 50%.

Dailymotion generates annual revenues of EUR 40m, the report noted.


Source Le Figaro

>>> NH Hoteles shareholder Hesperia mandates JB Capital Markets to sell up to 8%

NH Hoteles shareholder Hesperia mandates JB Capital Markets to sell up to 8%

NH Hoteles said in a regulatory filing that its shareholder (GIHSA, Hesperia), in its debt refinancing process, has mandated JB Capital Markets to seek offers for up to 8% of its stake in the Spanish hotel chain.

GHISA currently holds 20.07% of NH Hoteles and after the transaction, it is planning to keep its investment stable for the foreseeable future.

>>> What to look at today - 20/05/2014

US Market Closed slightly higher , leaded by small caps, M&A was still in focus, Overall, cyclical sectors were responsible for the bulk of yesterday's rally, while only one countercyclical group—health care—finished in the green. The other three—consumer staples, telecom services, and utilities—posted losses between 0.3% and 1.6%. Utilities was worst performer yesterday -4.4% MTD but still +8.6% YTD. volume were light @ 573mil shares...no economic data today...VIX @12.42 -0.16%...US After hours TEDU +3.5%, NPTN +1.2%, PRGN +0.5%, URBN -4.4%, PLAB -1.4%, PWRD -0.6% following earnings/guidance...Nikkei +0.62%...HS+0.66%...Shanghai+0.20%...China higher on report og IPO reform, UBS lowered China 2014 GDP Target to 7.3% from 7.5% & 2014 GDP Target to 6.8% from 7%

Eur$ 1.3708 S&P Fut -0.07% European Fut Unch

Keep an ey on :
- AFR LN : Afren 1Q Net Oil Production 35.5kbbl/d in Line With Expectations
- AZN LN : Pfizer: Can Boost Astra Offer If Final Proposal Less Than £55/Sh
- BP/ LN : BP Faces Billions in Spill Payments After Court Upholds Deal
- CMA FP : Italcementi Says Fixed Price at EU79.5/Shr on Ciments Francais
- COB LN : Cobham Said to Buy Aeroflex for $900m, Or $10.50/Share, Placing 65m Shares to Fund Aeroflex Purchase
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Says U.S. Settlements Cut 2Q Net by CHF1.6b
- ANN GY : Deutsche Annington Shares Said to Be Offered at EU19.25-EU19.50
- GTO FP : Apple Mobile Payments May Benefit V, MA, AXP, Hurt Gemalto: MS
- HOT GY : BofAML Exploring Leighton Property Asset Sale Options: AFR
- INGA NA : ING May Want to Sell Dutch Private Equity Fund, Telegraaf Says
- ISP IM : Intesa to Buy Out Monte Parma in Cash, Messaggero Reports
- MKS LN : Marks & Spencer Fy Adj. Pretax Beats Ests.
- MOR GY : Morphosys Says MOR208 to Get FDA, EMA Orphan Drug Designation
- SEM AV : Semperit 1Q Ebitda Rose 14% to EU33.4m; Outlook Confirmed
- SOON VX : Sonova FY Sales Beat Estimates, Proposes 19% Dividend Increase
- UBM BB : UBM Removed From CL at Goldman; Sees Better Upside Elsewhere
- UTDI GY : United Internet 1Q Sales Beat; Confirms Forecast for Full Year

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades

>>> Up
*AFK SISTEMA RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*AFRICAN BARRICK GOLD RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM: BOFAML
*ALPHA BANK RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT BOFAML
*ASTRAL FOODS RAISED TO BUYS VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFAML
*BBA AVIATION RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT LIBERUM
*BANKINTER RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFAML
*DSM RAISED TO BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*ITV RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT BERENBERG
*PIRAEUS BANK RAISED TO BUY VS UNDERPERFORM AT BOFAML
*SISTEMA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT CREDIT SUISSE
*UBM REMOVED FROM CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN, STILL A BUY

>>> Down
*DEUTSCHE EUROSHOP CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BANKHAUS LAMPE
*FUCHS PETROLUB CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*K+S CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

>>> PT Change
*Generali PT Raised to EU17.5 vs EU17.2 at Berenberg

>>> Initiation
*GLENCORE XSTRATA RATED NEW BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SURGUTNEFTEGAS RATED NEW OUTPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*TATNEFT RATED NEW UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE, PT $36
*TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND RATED NEW HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX

>>> Call
>> Stock
*BABCOCK INTL ADDED TO EUROPEAN ANALYST FOCUS LIST AT JPMORGAN
*HOLCIM ADDED TO BOFAML’S EUROPE 1 LIST
*UBM REMOVED FROM CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN, STILL A BUY

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: RBA minutes and dep gov Debelle comments weigh on AUD; Thailand army declares martial law

***Economic Data*** 
- (AU) AUSTRALIA MAR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX M/M: 0.0% (7-month low) V 0.2% PRIOR 
- (SG) SINGAPORE Q1 FINAL GDP Q/Q: 2.3% V 1.2%E; Y/Y: 4.9% V 5.4%E 
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA APR PPI Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.5% PRIOR (19th consecutive decline) 
- (SL) SRI LANKA LEAVES REVERSE REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.00%; LEAVES REPURCHASE RATE UNCHANGED AT 6.50% (EXPECTED) 

Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): 
- Nikkei225 +0.9%, S&P/ASX +0.2%, Kospi -0.4%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, Hang Seng +0.6%, Jun S&P500 flat at 1,882, Jun gold flat at $1,294, Jun crude oil +0.1% at $102.70/brl 

***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** 
- AUD/USD is the biggest mover among the dollar majors, weighed down by S&P comments on Australia's sovereign rating, less hawkish RBA meeting minutes, and remarks from RBA dep gov Debelle. Earlier in the US session, S&P analyst was said to have notified the govt about a potential review of Australia's AAA credit rating unless budget cuts can be fashioned over the coming years, sending AUD lower even though S&P had later clarified that Australia's AAA is not at risk. RBA minutes reiterated low rates are "likely appropriate for some time", inflation is consistent with target, and GDP growth would likely be below trend in the coming quarters. RBA also noted housing markets finally appear to be slowing, further diminishing the outlook for late-2014 rate hikes that were being increasingly priced in by some of the analysts. RBA dep gov Debelle said lower capital inflows may result in drop in a fall in AUD, even with demand for Australia debt remaining robust. AUD/USD fell below the $0.93 handle - a 2-week low. 
- Credit Suisse confirmed it is settling the case brought by the US AG, admitting criminal liability and agreeing to pay $2.6B in penalties. Notably, New York Superintendent of financial services Benjamin Lawsky said regulators will not begin proceedings to revoke the bank's NY license. 
- Thailand army declared martial law across the country to quell some of the increasing political turmoil. Army spokesperson clarified the declaration is not a coup, but also requested that all political groups suspend their protests. Thai Justice Min also said the govt is still running the country, and that it was positive that the army is looking after security. Thai Baht weakened after declaration of Martial Law, with USD/THB hitting a 1-week high above THB32.60 prompting some central bank intervention. 
- China indices are modestly higher, in part due to reports from the Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) that the IPO reform would be smaller in terms of new filings in 2014 than 154 in 2012. Recall recent reports suggested the number of filings could top 300. Earlier, UBS lowered China 2014 GDP target to 7.3% from 7.5% and 2015 GDP target to 6.8% from 7.0%. 

***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** 
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.10T in 1.5% (1.5% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 1.453% v 1.468% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.56x v 3.99x prior 
- (CN) PBoC to drain CNY35B in 28-day repos (26th consecutive drain) 
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$200M in index 2022 bonds avg yield: 1.0660%; bid-to-cover: 4.36x 

***Equities*** 
US markets: 
- OPHT: Enters into Ex-US Licensing and Commercialization Agreement for Fovista with Novartis; to receive up to $1B, including $300M upfront payment; +22.8% afterhours 
- AZN: Pfizer considers boosting offer for AstraZeneca if third party has intention to make offer; +0.7% afterhours 
- CS: US Justice Dept confirms Credit Suisse has pled guilty to criminal tax case; agrees to pay $2.6B per settlement charges - press conf; -0.4% afterhours 
- URBN: Reports Q1 $0.26 v $0.27e, R$686.3M v $688Me; -4.6% afterhours 
- ECYT: Merck and Endocyte Announce Withdrawal of Conditional Marketing Authorization Applications for Vintafolide and Companion Imaging Components, Etarfolatide and Intravenous (IV) Folic Acid in Europe; -4.9% afterhours 
- ADTN: Announces additional 5M shares (8.9% of shares outstanding) repurchase program 

Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer Discretionary: Treasury Wine Estates TWE.AU +19.2% (rejects proposal from KKR; announces investment and cost reduction plan) 
- Industrials: Great Wall Motor 2333.HK +1.4% (plans manufacturing plant in Russia); Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK +0.7% (Q1 results)
- Technology: BOE Technology Group 000725.CN +1.0%, Dongxu Optoelectronics Technology 000413.CN +2.8% (enters strategic alliance); Talkweb Information System 002261.CN -10.0% (announces acquisition); Yahoo! Japan Corp 4689.JP +9.7% (cancels acquisition plan)

>>>US Close Dow+0,13% S&P+0,36% Nasdaq+0,82%

Closing Market Summary: Small Caps Lead Stocks Higher

The stock market began the new trading week on a modestly higher note with small caps coming out on top. The Russell 2000 advanced 1.1%, while the S&P 500 added 0.4% with seven sectors posting gains. The underperformance of blue chip listings was apparent within the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%), which spent the entire session near its flat line.

Generally speaking, the first session of the week was largely uneventful with no economic data or noteworthy earnings influencing the sentiment. However, M&A activity was in focus early, even though it did not lift the underlying stocks. Some recent came to fruition as AT&T (T 36.38, -0.36) agreed to acquire DirecTV (DTV 84.65, -1.53) for $95 per share, which represents a 10.2% premium to Friday's closing price. However, shares of DirecTV did not rally amid concerns about potential regulatory hurdles.

Elsewhere, AstraZeneca (AZN 70.64, -9.64) plunged 12.0% after rejecting Pfizer's (PFE 29.28, +0.16) latest acquisition offer. Even though AstraZeneca lagged, the broader health care sector (+0.6%) was able to overcome that weakness thanks to the relative strength of biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 231.50, +3.20) gained 1.4% after starting the session right above its 200-day moving average, which has been an area of congestion for more than a month.

Also of note, the solid performance from the biotech group underpinned the Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), which also received noteworthy support from the technology sector (+0.8%).

The top-weighted S&P 500 sector settled in the lead thanks to broad-based gains. Large cap listings like Apple (AAPL 604.59, +7.08), Google (GOOG 528.86, +8.23), and Oracle (ORCL 42.16, +0.47) advanced between 1.1% and 1.6%, while chipmakers also rallied. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished higher by 1.1%.

Overall, cyclical sectors were responsible for the bulk of today's rally, while only one countercyclical group—health care—finished in the green. The other three—consumer staples, telecom services, and utilities—posted losses between 0.3% and 1.6%.

The utilities sector finished the session at the bottom of the leaderboard, which widened its May loss to 4.4%. Despite the sharp month-to-date decline, the rate-sensitive sector remains higher by 8.6% for the year.

Treasuries spent the entire session in a steady retreat from their overnight highs. As a result, the benchmark 10-yr yield climbed two basis points to 2.54%.

Participation was well below average with just 573 million shares changing hands at the NYSE, which represented the second lowest total of the year.

There is no economic data of note on tomorrow's schedule.

* S&P 500 +2.0% YTD  * Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.4% YTD  * Nasdaq Composite -1.2% YTD  * Russell 2000 -4.0% YTD