Asian Market Update: AUD rallies on upgrade in FY14/15 CAPEX forecast; Japan retail sales slump as higher tax sets in
***Economic Data*** - (JP) JAPAN APR RETAIL SALES M/M: -13.7% V -11.7%E; Y/Y: -4.4% V -3.3%E (biggest decline since Mar 2011) - (AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PRIVATE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX) Q/Q: -4.2% V -1.9%E (2nd quarterly decline) - (AU) AUSTRALIA APR HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: 2.9% (4th consecutive rise) V 0.2% PRIOR - (BR) BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK (BDB): LEAVES SELIC TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 11.00%, AS EXPECTED (first pause since Apr 2013) - (PH) PHILIPPINES Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.2% V 1.9%E; Y/Y: 5.7% V 6.4%E - (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE: $7.1B V $7.3B PRIOR; GOODS BALANCE: $10.6B V $8.0B PRIOR
Market Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT): - Nikkei225 -0.1%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.1%, Shanghai Composite flat, Hang Seng +0.5%, Jun S&P500 +0.1% at 1,910, Aug gold -0.1% at $1,258, Jul crude oil +0.2% at $102.94/brl
***Highlights/Observations/Insights*** - Japan retail sales registered their biggest annual decline in over 3 years, as both m/m and y/y figures missed estimates. Note that this is the first reporting month of data since consumption tax went up to 8% from 5% on April 1st. - Also in Japan, a former BOJ dissenter and one of the more dovish board members Shirai said she was confident the central bank would achieve its inflation target, but also noted it could take more than 2 years under the current flexible targeting. She also noted that easing would continue after FY15/16 and cautioned that policymakers need to see the impact of next sales tax rise before judging if 2% inflation stable. Recall that up until the most recent BOJ decision, Shirai wanted the BOJ to express more concern over the pace of improvement in employment and income situation in its "Risks to Outlook" section of the statement.
- Australia released its Q1 CAPEX data, and while the main figure missed estimates for the 2nd consecutive quarter of deceleration, AUD shot higher on upgrade in FY14/15 spending projections. Est2 for FY14/15 CapEx was raised to A$137.1B, which is still down -12.0% y/y but up from prior A$124.9B est #1. FY13/14 forecast was lowered to A$162.8B, flat y/y and down from A$167.1B Est #5.
- Brazil Central Bank announced it was pausing its tightening campaign that started over a year ago. As expected, the BDB left its SELIC target rate at 11.0% in a unanimous decision, noting it was taking both the macroeconomic situation and inflation outlook into account.
***Speakers/Political/In the Papers*** - (CN) China regulators said to have requested banks conduct stress test - Chinese press - (KR) South Korea state-run think tank Korea Development Institute (KDI): Lowers 2014 GDP forecast to 3.7% vs 3.9% prior - Korean press - (JP) BOJ's Shirai: Sees 2% inflation with no major burden on businesses, households; Positive cycle of output, income, expenditure likely to continue in Japan
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Currencies*** - JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.48T in 0.1% 2-yr notes, Avg Yield: 0.0860% v 0.089% prior; bid to cover: 6.2x v 5.90x prior - (JP) Japan investors bought net ¥90.5B in foreign bonds last week vs bought net ¥1.41T prior week; Foreign Investors bought net ¥32.6B in Japan stocks last week vs sold net ¥97.0B in prior week - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY10B in 28-day repos (29th consecutive drain); Injects net CNY20B this week v injected CNY120B prior (3rd consecutive week of net injection) - (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES: CRUDE: +3.49M (largest build since April 15th) v 0e, GASOLINE: -1.44M v 0e, DISTILLATE: +820K v +0.5Me - USD/CNY: (CN) PBoC sets yuan mid point at 6.1705 (weakest setting since Sept 6th) v 6.1694 prior setting
- AUD/USD is the most notable mover among the USD majors after the FY14/15 CAPEX upgrade from Australia that potentially bodes well for a strong Q1 GDP on tap for next week. AUD/USD initially fell 20pips on weaker than expected Q1 print to a low of $0.9210 before rising above $0.9280 session high. NZD/USD consolidated its outsized decline overnight, remaining supported above $0.8470. GBP/USD recovered some lost ground to trade above $1.6720, above 30pips higher from the lows of the late US session.
***Equities*** US markets: - PANW: Reports Q3 $0.11 v $0.10e, R$151M v $146Me; +11.0% afterhours - AAPL: Confirms acquisition of Beats Music for $3B in cash and stock; +0.1% afterhours - GMAN: Reports Q1 -$0.04 (incl items) v $0.02e, R$143M v $142Me; -15.4% afterhours - TLYS: Reports Q1 $0.02 v $0.02e, R$111.1M v $115Me; -23.4% afterhours
- MSFT: Said to be in discussion with Salesforce on cloud partnership - financial press
Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Shiseido 4911.JP +2.4% (new products) - Healthcare: Jointown Pharmaceutical 600998.CN +7.6%, China National Medicines 600511.CN +0.9% (China FDA may allow online sales) - Technology: Inotera Memories Inc 3474.TW +5.6% (guidance); Kingsoft Corp 3888.HK -8.7% (Q1 results); Inspur Electronic Information Industry 000977.CN +6.0% (new campaign) - Industrials: Kawasaki Heavy Industries 7012.JP +0.9% (investment plans) - Materials: Toll Holdings TOL.AU +4.6% (FY14 guidance); Kentor Gold KGL.AU +8.4% (resource update); Sojitz 2768.JP +1.9% (expansion plans) - Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU +1.7% (production update)
After Hours Summary: PANW +10.6%, PLKI +2.8%, UHAL +0.8%, TLYS -22.5%, GMAN -13.6%, SB -2.5% following earnings/guidance
After Hours Gainers: Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings: PANW +10.6%, PLKI +2.8%, VTL +2.1%, UHAL +0.8%
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: ICPT +6.0% (announced that FDA granted Fast Track designation to obeticholic acid for the treatment of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis), RCAP +2.1% (announced proposed public offering of 15 mln shares of Class A common stock; RCAP Holdings, the controlling stockholder of RCAP, proposing to offer and sell 5 mln shares), BCRX +1.8% (priced public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock at $10 per share), EROC +1.4% (announced credit facility amendments and new upstream borrowing base), BBRY +1.4% (Co's CEO said he expects the company to be cash flow positive or breakeven by year-end), JNPR +0.9% (announced settlement of patent litigation with Palo Alto Networks (PANW)), LOCK +0.9% (Okumus Fund Management discloses 8.67% passive stake in 13G filing)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings: TLYS -22.5%, GMAN -13.6%, SB -2.5%
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: FN -3.7% (announced secondary offering of 3.15 mln shares by selling shareholder), STON -3.6% (announced public offering of 2.6 mln common units), SPHS -2.9% (filed for ~3.409 mln share common stock offering by by Aspire Capital Fund), BAH -1.6% (announced sale of 10 mln shares of common stock by an affiliate of the Caryle Group), CSTE -1.5% (announced offering of 5.5 mln shares by selling shareholder), P -0.8% (down slightly following Apple acquisition of Beats Music & Beats Electronics)
U.S. Consumers Languish in the Trap of Luxury
Companies selling goods to affluent Americans mostly have done better than those selling to the less well-off. But there are limits to their success.
The years since the recession haven't been good to the lower and middle classes. A household at the top of the bottom fifth by income made $20,599 in 2012, according to the Census Bureau. That was 9.7% below what it made in 2006, after adjusting for inflation. Median household income—what people in the middle of the middle class make—fell 7.1% over the same period to $51,017.
With wages growing only slowly, it is unlikely much ground has been made up since 2012. Lower- and middle-class Americans' wealth also was hit harder than the rich, who had less of their assets concentrated in housing.
So it is not a surprise that companies such as Wal-Mart Stores WMT -0.08% and J.C. Penney, JCP -0.79% which cater to consumers with modest incomes, haven't been doing as well as high-end retailer Nordstrom JWN -0.21% and upscale grocery Whole Foods Market. WFM -2.07% Nor is it a shock that investors have clamored for shares of high-end sportswear maker Under Armour UA +0.60% and apparel company Michael Kors Holdings. KORS +1.33%
But although the better-off haven't fared as badly as other Americans, as a group they haven't done all that well either, with income and wealth gains concentrated at the very top. A household at the 95th percentile—one making more than all but the top 5%—made $191,156 in 2012. That was 3.5% lower, in real terms, than what they earned in 2006.
So unless they are focused on the uber-rich, companies selling to higher-income U.S. households have been engaged in a zero-sum game.
That has created an environment in which gaining market share has become paramount—as amply demonstrated by Kors. When the company posted results Wednesday that, once again, beat estimates, one response from investors was to push shares of rival Coach COH -1.33% down by 1.3%. Kors stock rose by the same amount.
There is only so much demand for affordable luxury to go around. At the same time, this is an environment that invites competition, as more companies target those higher-end households. Whole Foods' disappointing results earlier this month came about in part because grocers such as Kroger KR -0.66% are encroaching on its business.
A more serious problem may be that people entering their 30s—the "echo boom" children of baby boomers—bear lasting scars from the recession.
The median income for Americans aged 25 to 34 fell sharply during the downturn. Finding a job has been difficult, and many are burdened by high levels of student debt. This potentially potent consumer force has reached an age at which, in better times, a great many people in it might be trading up to higher quality, pricier goods. But after what they have been through, they may have set their sights lower.
The economy continues to recover, and with the job market improving, perhaps people who aren't in the upper echelon will eventually see their incomes get back to where they were. Until then, the business of selling to American consumers, even the seemingly prosperous, will be very tough.
Closing Market Summary: Stocks Slip on Light Volume
The stock market endured a quiet session that had the S&P 500 confined to a seven-point range. The benchmark index shed 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) and Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%) followed not far behind. Small caps, however, saw some additional weakness as the Russell 2000 lost 0.5%.
All in all, it is worth pointing out that today's lack of aggressive selling or buying followed four consecutive advances that sent the S&P 500 higher by 2.1%. Furthermore, there was no concerted leadership as the top-weighted sectors ended the day in the red. On that note, consumer discretionary (-0.1%), financials (-0.3%), health care (-0.3%), and technology (-0.3%) all struggled to keep pace with the S&P 500.
The discretionary sector had the best showing of the four after seeing some volatility among retailers and homebuilders. In the retail space, Brown Shoe (BWS 29.34, +2.90), and Michael Kors (KORS 97.01, +1.27) posted respective gains of 10.8% and 1.3% after beating earnings estimates, while Chico's FAS (CHS 15.14, -0.47) missed estimates. The stock fell 3.0%, while the overall industry group did not fare much better. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 82.93, -0.77) lost 0.9%.
Also of note, homebuilders displayed intraday strength following above-consensus quarterly results from Toll Brothers (TOL 36.38, +0.74). Shares of TOL jumped 2.1%, while the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.03, -0.04) surrendered its modest gain just ahead of the close.
Elsewhere, a pocket of strength among transports allowed the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.7%) to climb to a fresh all-time high. The bellwether complex extended its year-to-date gain to 9.1% and underpinned the industrial sector (+0.1%), which outperformed throughout the session.
Interestingly, the recent strength in the transports has not jived with the economic slowdown argument that has been used to explain the continued strength in Treasuries. The Treasury market rallied once again today with the 10-yr note climbing 21 ticks. As a result, the benchmark 10-yr yield fell eight basis points to 2.44%, ending at levels not seen in nearly a year.
Today's participation marked an improvement over last week, but remained below average as 621 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.
Economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which fell 1.2% to follow last week's uptick of 0.9%.
Tomorrow, weekly initial claims (consensus 318,000) and the second estimate of Q1 GDP (consensus -0.5%) will be reported at 8:30 ET, while the Pending Home Sales report for April (consensus 1.0%) will be released at 10:00 ET.
- S&P 500 +3.3% YTD
- Dow Jones Industrial Average +0.3% YTD
- Nasdaq Composite +1.2% YTD
- Russell 2000 -2.1% YTD