>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: RAX +10.1%, BCRX +5.4%, CX +4.7%, FEYE +3.4%, FEYE +3.4%, GTAT +2.3%, YHOO +2%, MT +1.4%, BAC +1.1%, ISNS +0.7%

Gapping down: DGLY -5.4%, RBS -4.7%, LYG -4.5%, BCS -4.1%, GSK -3.4%, HMY -2.5%, AZN -2.3%, RDS.A -2.1%, BP -2%, HSBC -1.9%, RIO -1.9%, SHPG -1.9%, GOLD -1.8%, CCL -1.6%, ING -1.5%, SDRL -1.5%, AKS -1.3%, SAN -1.2%, GFI -1.1%

NY Post : Any curbs on Comcast alliance are tough to enforce

No matter what conditions regulators place on Comcast in order to approve its merger with Time Warner Cable, they will be toothless, television industry insiders told The Post.
That’s because the Federal Communications Commission is unable to enforce some of the conditions it sets down, the critics claim.
Just look at the conditions Comcast was supposed to adhere to — but didn’t — to gain approval of its purchase of NBCUniversal, the critics maintain.
For example, Comcast failed to live up to its promise to provide low-cost broadband service to low-income families, Sen. Al Franken (D-MN), an outspoken critic of the NBCU deal, told the FCC earlier this year.
Comcast paid a fine for not marketing the $10 service widely enough.
The giant cable provider also failed net neutrality provisions in the merger agreement that provided for equal internet access for all by excluding content watched via its Xfinity platform from data caps — thus favoring its own content, the interest group Public Knowledge claims.
“Is the [FCC] concerned about these things to impose these safeguards and conditions to stop these things from happening? That’s what it boils down to,” a source told The Post. “They avoided them through clever lawyering.”
In addition, the Tennis Channel is yet to gain broad distribution from Comcast despite several rulings in its favor by the FCC.
Similarly, Bloomberg thought an FCC ruling that it should be located near other business channels would get it the better spot, but Comcast didn’t move it.

FT : Why investors are ignoring war, terror and turmoil

Political change on a global level has done more to create chances than to destroy them

At the beginning of the year, I gave a talk about “geopolitical risk” to a big conference of investors. I trotted briskly around the course: Russia, the Middle East, the South China Sea, the eurozone. Afterwards, I was having coffee with one of the other speakers, a celebrated private-equity investor, and asked him how much he thought about geopolitical risk.
“Hardly at all,” he replied. “We look at the companies, the cash flows, the investments themselves.”

Since the man I was speaking to is a billionaire, who ended the conversation by offering me a lift to Madrid in his private jet, it would be foolish to dismiss his views. Most of the time, it does make sense for investors to treat the political news as background noise, which is only marginally more relevant than the sports pages.
Events that are tragedies at a human level turn out to be irrelevant for investors. The unfolding war in Syria, which has claimed close to 200,000 lives, has taken place against a background of booming stock markets.
The disconnect between the markets and politics has been particularly stark recently. Last week, even as the newspapers were filled with stories about war in Ukraine and the Middle East – as well as the possible break-up of the UK – the FTSE 100 hit a new 14-year high. The previous week, the US S&P 500 broke 2,000 for the first time.

The standard response to all this from a political commentator would be to tut-tut about the short-sightedness of investors. But there is another possibility. Maybe the markets are right. Of course, from time to time, a political shock will cause stocks to fall – for a while. But recent experience suggests that the recovery is often surprisingly rapid.
In the first week of trading after the terror attacks of 9/11, the Dow Jones fell by 14 per cent. But the Dow and the Nasdaq had recovered their pre-9/11 levels within months of the attacks.
It has been a long time since international politics really transformed the outlook for investors for years – rather than for weeks or months. The last times I can think of were the oil-shocks of the 1970s that followed the Arab-Israeli war of 1973 and the Iranian revolution of 1979.
Since then, the world has been characterised less by geopolitical risk than by the much less often cited idea of geopolitical opportunity. It was the political changes brought about by the end of Maoism that led to the economic transformation of China. Huge new markets also opened up for investors in Europe, after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The fall of dictatorships in Latin America in the 1980s was also followed by the widespread adoption of more market-friendly policies.
So it would be completely wrong to say that global politics has not mattered for investors in recent decades. It is just that political change – on a global level – has done more to create opportunities than to destroy them.
Within that, of course, there are all sort of political events that can adversely affect the investment climate in particular countries. It is useful to know if a coup or a war is brewing. But the big global shifts in investor sentiment, in recent decades, have been driven by economics, not politics: most notably the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000, the financial crisis of 2008 and quantitative easing in the US.
The explanation for current market highs is probably that investors are still much more preoccupied by monetary policy than by wars. But can that attitude survive the current bout of geopolitical turmoil? In the 1970s, war and revolution drove energy prices to levels that shocked western economies into recession. Now, two of the major energy-producing regions of the world – Russia and the Middle East – are in turmoil. And yet the oil price is actually falling.
There are a few reasons why this could be happening. First, the “shale revolution” in the US has made world energy markets less vulnerable to events in the Middle East. Second, the fighting in the Arab world has not yet affected the oil production of Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states. Finally, Russia has not yet made serious threats of energy sanctions against the west. If war reached the Gulf, or Russia turned off its energy tap, markets surely would panic.
There is also a bigger and more general political threat that investors may soon have to grapple with. For the past 40 years, political change has broadly pointed in one direction – towards more and more countries joining the global market system, increasing opportunities for trade.
Recently, however, there have been reminders that politics can close markets as well as open them. Japanese firms saw their sales plummet in China, after the rise in Sino-Japanese tensions and have reduced their direct investments in China by 50 per cent this year. Now Russia and the west are engaged in rounds of tit-for-tat sanctions. Unsurprisingly, the Russian stock market is the worst performing big market this year.
However, even investors without a direct stake in Russia, should be paying attention. The Ukraine conflict could still worsen and spread, with unpredictable effects across Europe.
It is also possible that what is happening in Russia is an extreme version of a wider phenomenon – the return of nationalist politics. In different ways that theme can be seen in countries as diverse as China, India, Egypt – and even France and Scotland. Nationalism and international investment tend not to be comfortable bedfellows. Sooner or later, the revival of nationalism could even affect plutocrats in their private jets.

(BofA-ML) Consumer Staples & Luxury : Most/Least Sept 2014

>>> Most Preferred List
Beiersdorf: product launches to boost 2H14/FY15, best-in-class 10% EPS CAGR
Burberry: best positioned in digital, the most structurally attractive luxury exposure
Carlsberg: Russia expectations/valuation bottomed, market share to improve in 2H

>>> Least Preferred List
CCH: valuation remains stretched despite continued risk to 2H volumes
Prada: store rollout over, reluctant to embrace online, no further margin mix benefit
Swatch: valuation not reflecting lower growth profile, inventory & smart watch risk

>>> Stocks added & removed
MPL: Burberry and Carlsberg added, ABI and Imperial Tobacco removed
LPL: CCH and Prada added, Remy and Pernod removed

WSJ - Digital : Alibaba Adds Three New Partners, Bringing Total to 30

As Alibaba Group Holding launches its massive U.S. initial public offeringthat could raise more than $20 billion, the Chinese e-commerce giant’s long-term vision will depend on its so-called partners who effectively control the company.

Alibaba’s latest update to its IPO filing, released Friday, shows that the company has recently added three new partners, raising the total number to 30 from 27.

The 30 partners – including Alibaba founder Jack Ma and many other senior executives – have the right to nominate a majority of the company’s directors. The three new partners, who have all been at Alibaba for more than a decade, are principal engineers Cai Jingxian and Ni Xingjun as well as human resources director Fang Yongxin.

“Our partnership is a dynamic body that rejuvenates itself through admission of new partners each year,” Alibaba says in its IPO filing. Existing Alibaba partners can propose candidates who have worked at Alibaba for at least five years. To become partners, candidates need to be approved by at least 75% of all the existing partners. One of the criteria for election is “a track record of contribution to the business of Alibaba Group,” according to the filing.

So what contributions have the three new partners made?

Cai, a 37-year-old who joined Alibaba in 2000, is one of the engineers who played a major role in creating the Taobao online marketplace in 2003. Taobao is Alibaba’s main website that hosts millions of merchants. Cai is now in charge of Alibaba’s cloud computing platform called Aspara. Ni, 37, joined Alibaba in 2003 and helped develop Alipay, an electronic payment system that processes most of the transactions on Alibaba’s e-commerce websites. Fang, who joined the company in 2000, has supervised human resources management in many business areas and key geographic regions in China.

Alibaba’s partnership structure has raised questions among some investors and corporate governance experts, because it allows a group of executives who only hold a minority stake in the company to effectively control the board. Alibaba decided to go public in New York in part because Hong Kong’s stock exchange didn’t accept the structure. Structures that allow senior executives to have more control over listed companies aren’t rare. Some major U.S. technology firms, such as Google and Facebook, issue two classes of shares with different rights to give their founders and management greater weight in shareholder votes.

“Unlike dual-class ownership structures that employ a high-vote class of shares to concentrate control in a few founders, our approach is designed to embody the vision of a large group of management partners,” Alibaba says in its IPO filing.

WWD : Fifth Ave.: Ralph Lauren's New Neighborhood

NEW YORK — Ralph Lauren is galloping onto Fifth Avenue.

Today, when the designer opens his first Polo flagship at 711 Fifth Avenue, he will make a statement for the newly expanded Polo lifestyle, which now also includes women’s. The store, across 38,000 square feet and three floors, is a showcase for the brand’s new sensibility, which skews youthful with a downtown vibe, from the interior and how the merchandise is styled to the aroma at Ralph’s Coffee (more on that later).

“The concept for me was to make this modern, and to really show what Polo Ralph Lauren is about,” the designer said during an exclusive walkthrough of the store. “This was the first store where I said, ‘I have to build a new concept for Polo, and it should be young, and show everything that we have.’”

Polo is an instrumental part of the growth platform at Ralph Lauren Corp. This concept sets a blueprint for future openings and clearly delineates the brand from the designer’s Collection business.

This being Ralph, there is a still distinctly American feel throughout in details such as the wood of an Adirondack boathouse that marks men’s on the main floor, the custom river-rock stone fireplaces, display details such as vintage guitars and a suspended kayak, as well as iconic photography framed on the walls and collectors’ books that are for sale.

For a designer of Lauren’s stature, it may come as a surprise to some that he is only now embracing Fifth Avenue.

“As a New Yorker, I have always seen Fifth Avenue and it was not really for me,” he admitted, pointing to his choice to focus his main retail activity here around Madison Avenue and 72nd Street. “Fifth Avenue is a different audience. There are tourists shopping, or not shopping and walking and sightseeing. I have always run away from high-traffic areas, so this is an interesting experience. It’s a big space on one of the world’s great streets, and it’s exciting because it’s new for me. Challenges are exciting. I want to make a statement about what we stand for. This is it. The world of Polo.”

A giant monitor in the entry lobby flashes that message via video shorts by Bruce Weber, which can be seen from across Fifth Avenue.

“It’s the expression of where I stand today and how strong Polo is as a concept,” Lauren noted. “It gives it the space, it gives it its own individuality and it’s cool.”

Women’s, on the second and third floors, takes a different approach from men’s, with white-washed brick walls and wood-paneled ceilings like a downtown loft. The double-height shoe area features a mezzanine library. Vintage furniture and rugs, and special items like guitars and even a custom handmade Ascari bicycle that’s available for $20,000 add to the concept.

“She’s the downtown girl,” Lauren said. “She’s got heritage. She went to college. She is a smart girl, and doing whatever she wants to do. She is living downtown, and is energetic, classy, preppy-ish, but not preppy. She is more independent and individual. She is living in a loft, she goes to the movies, she goes out downtown.”

And she likes a good cappuccino. During the walkthrough, Lauren shared his aromatic preferences over a freshly brewed cup at his first coffee shop. On the store’s second floor, the shop overlooks Fifth Avenue and features white mosaic-tiled floors; white, weathered board walls, and an aged oak 18-foot ceiling. There is a large vintage oak library table for communal seating, as well as smaller marble top tables, accented with bistro chairs. The café can seat up to 22 guests.

“She is sitting down, having coffee at a communal table, reading a book,” he said. “I opened a store in Paris with the restaurant called Ralph’s, and this is how I see the young woman here. She reads, she stops in and buys clothes, or she is here with her friends and has a coffee.”

Lauren likes his coffee strong, no sugar. Working with La Colombe, he developed his own line of blends made from USDA organic coffees, including the Ralph’s Organic Espresso Blend, which mixes beans from Colombia, Honduras, Nicaragua and Ethiopia. The café also sells juices, sandwiches (among them, roasted turkey as well as roasted pepper with avocado) and some of his favorite pastries, including “Nana’s Brownies,” made from one of his mother-in-law’s recipes.

Table bussers and counter servers wear striped shirts with knit ties in signature Ralph’s Coffee green; khaki pants, and butchers’ aprons with the coffee brand’s logo.

A restaurant, called The Polo Bar, is set to open in November in the former La Côte Basque space with a focus on steaks, hamburgers and farm-to-table food, according to Lauren.

“I love the sensibility of doing restaurants because I think that food and fashion go hand-in-hand,” he said. “It’s entertainment, it’s happiness, and I want to put it together as I see it today.”

(Makor) Special Sit.: HERMES: DO NOTHING

Special Situations: HERMES

No action  

RMS FP: Eur 243.20

September 8, 2014

We are neutral on Hermes at the current price following LVMH’s announced spin-off of its Hermes stake.  The spin-off highlights three issues: 1. LVMH would not have been successful in eventually taking control of the company; 2. LVMH could not sell the stake for cash in the market; 3. LVMH considered Hermes to be fully valued for deciding to sell its stake now. On that last point, we note that at the time of the announcement, Hermes was selling close to a all time relative high vs. LVMH. We do not recommend to short Hermes on the news of the spin-off.  First of all, the market being efficient, one has to assume that the current share price post news has already incorporated the coming spin-off.  It would be naïve to think that one could profit in advance of a news that is already widely disseminated in the market.   But more importantly, Hermes, while looking expensive in absolute terms, is fair value relative to the luxury sector given its superior profitability.  Hermes has the highest ebitda, operating, and net profit margins in the sector. Moreover, it is forecasted to have higher growth than most of its competitors.  While the stock will fluctuate between now and the ex-spin-off date, we would rather be buyers of the stock on weakness. We are buyers below 200, and sellers above 270, while recommending to stay on the sidelines in between.  There are better trades in the sector.

FULL REPORT ATTACHED

>>> What to look at today ( & this week end) - 08/09/2014

US Market closed higher, All ten sectors finished in the green, but health care (+0.6%) contributed to the opening weakness, pressured gy GILD (-8,7% at the lowest level to finish -1,4%), utilities was best performer(+1,2%)...volume were light...VIX @ 12,09 -4,35%...Markets are less enthused by the 2nd consecutive record high in China trade surplus, as it also marked the 2nd straight instance of falling imports, Shanghai Composite is closed for holiday, but the Hang Seng hit its session lows below 25,100 just after the trade figures...Japan released its final Q2 GDP that showed an even bigger contraction than initially estimated. Private consumption was particularly soft, falling 5.1% on sharply reduced spending following consumption tax hike. The biggest downward revision was seen in corporate CAPEX which was cut to -5.1% from -2.5% prelim and below 3.4% consensus, with companies reluctant to invest given the more protracted drag from the sales tax than anticipated...Scotland referendum put pressure on cable...In geopotical theater, weekend developments in Ukraine and Iraq will likely keep the markets on edge this week. After the official start of a ceasefire on Friday, both sides accused each other of continued shelling around the Ukraine port city of Mariupol. EU official also unveiled the specifics of the latest round of sanctions on Russia, banning top energy firms Rosneft, Transneft, and Gazprom oil unit from fund raising and securing new loans...Nikkei +0.07% Hang Seng -0.30% Shanghai closed

Eur$ 1.2938 S&P -0.10% Eurotsoxx +0.20% FTSE -0.07% Dax+0.23% SMI +0.23%

Macro
- Schumer Draft Tax Proposal on Inversions Could Reach to 1994 {NSN NBJQF06TTDS2 <go>}
- EU unveils details on new Russia sanctions; To prevent top energy firms Rosneft, Transneft, and Gazprom oil unit from fund raising
-ECB's Visco (Italy): ECB should not hesitate to take further action on monetary policy if needed
- IMF’s Lagarde Doesn’t See Euro as Overvalued Vs Dollar: Echos
- China Aug. Exports Rise 9.4% Y/y; Est. 9% Rise
- Japan July Current-Account Surplus 416.7b Yen Vs Est. 444.2b Yen
- Higher German Spending Would Be Good for Germany, Lagarde Says
- German Gain From Financial Transaction Tax EU17.6b: Sueddeutsche

Keep an eye on :
- ADS GY : Adidas Trails Nike, Under Armour in U.S. Sportswear Sales: WSJ
- AGN US : Allergan/Jazz: Irish Takeover Rules May Trigger Clarity: Sterne
- AIR FP : Air Officials May Add Restrictions on Lithium Batteries: WSJ
- ALO FP : Alstom Accused of Paying GBP6m in Bribes to Win Contracts: FT
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca Sues Sagent Pharma Over Patents for Faslodex
- AZN LN : Astra Says Benralizumab Failed to Meet Main Goal of COPD Study
- BA US : Boeing Said Poised to Win $11b Ryanair Order for 737Max Models
- ALCAR FP : Carmat Director: Report of Second Heart Implantation Is Rumor
- CU FP : Club Med’s Sales Decline Complicates Potential Fosun Bid: Monde
- AM FP : Airbus Said Planning 10% Dassault Stake Sale Ahead of Full Exit
- DTE GY : Dish’s Ergen Said to Discuss T-Mobile Deal With Deutsche Telekom {NSN NBG12M6KLVRE <go>}
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom eyes majority in Deutsche Sportwetten (local sports betting co) - ARD
- ELUXB SS : GE Agrees to Sell Appliances Business to Electrolux for $3.3b --> Investor AB see SEK6Bil right issue, support deal
- EOAN GY : Italy’s Edison to Enter Talks to Buy E.ON Italian Unit: Reuters
- FUM1V FH : Fortum could see lowered price for Swedish electricity networks due to new legislation- Kauppalehti Online
- G IM : Generali Plans Acquisitions, CEO Tells Sueddeutsche Zeitung
- GSK LN : Glaxo’s Experimental Ebola Vaccine Fights Off Virus in Monkeys
- JUP LN :Jupiter Raised to Buy; Numis Says Market Overreacted to Bad News
- NFLX US : Netflix Will Have to Pay 2% Tax on French Revenue, Figaro Says
- NOVN VX : Novartis: Data Show Ultibro Cut More COPD Flareups vs Seretide
- ROG VX : Roche’s Roactemra Wins EU Approval for Rheumatoid Arthritis
- RYA LN : Boeing, Ryanair to Make ‘Significant Announcement’ Tomorrow
- RYA LN : Ryanair Said Poised for $11 Billion Purchase of Boeing Max Jets
- TEC FP : Technip to Close Sea-Based Wind Power Unit, Les Echos Says
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia’s Patuano Says No Intention to Spin Off Network, to Speed Up Investments in Brazil, CEO Says
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia says may reconsider Telecom Argentina's sale if Argentine regulators continue delaying deal approval, TIM remains core asset
- TMUS US : Dish’s Ergen Said to Discuss T-Mobile Deal With Deutsche Telekom {NSN NBG12M6KLVRE <go>}
- UCG IM : Ardian Said to Buy UniCredit Fund Stakes Valued at $1.3b
- VIE FP : Veolia CEO Sees at Least 2 Credible Bidders for Ferry Co. SNCM
- VOD LN : Vodafone to Begin Mobile Payment Service in U.K. Next Month: FT

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 08/09/2014

>>> Up
*BANCO POPOLARE RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA
*BOLIDEN RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*DELHAIZE RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT ING
*INTESA RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA
*LUNDIN PETROLEUM RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SANTANDER RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT MEDIOBANCA
*SOCGEN RAISED TO OUTPERFORM VS NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA
*TESCO RAISED TO MARKET PERFORM VS UNDERPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN

>>> Down
*ARYZTA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN
*JUPITER RAISED TO BUY AT NUMIS
*LAMPRELL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*MORRISONS CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*OPHIR ENERGY CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SAFILO CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*SALAMANDER ENERGY CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*SPAR GROUP CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT VS OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*SYNERGY HEALTH CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*VIVENDI CUT FROM OUTPERFORM AT RAYMOND JAMES

>>> PT Changes
*DELHAIZE PT RAISED TO EU59.50 FROM EU52.50 AT ING
*TESCO PT SET AT GBP235 AT SANFORD BERNSTEIN

>>> Initiation
*BONMARCHE RATED NEW BUY AT CANTOR; PT 320P
*GENEL ENERGY RATED NEW BUY AT WESTHOUSE
*MONTE PASCHI REINSTATED AT NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA; PT EU1.15
*PICK N PAY STORES RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*POP. MILANO REINSTATED AT NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA; PT EU0.67

>>> Call
>> Sector
*U.S. AUTOS CUT TO CAUTIOUS AT MORGAN STANLEY
*GLOBAL EQUITIES (3-MO. VIEW) RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT AT GOLDMAN