(BFW) *ORANGE CEO SEES NO SHORT-TERM CONSOLIDATION IN FRANCE

BN 09/16 07:29 *ORANGE CEO: A FRENCH DEAL WOULDN'T BE MAJOR FOR CO.'S FINANCES
BN 09/16 07:29 *ORANGE WON'T BE FRONT-RUNNER FOR FRENCH CONSOLIDATION: CEO
BN 09/16 07:29 *ORANGE CEO: CO. 'OPEN-MINDED' ABOUT CONSOLIDATION IN FRANCE
BN 09/16 07:29 *ORANGE CEO SEES NO SHORT-TERM CONSOLIDATION IN FRANCE
*ORANGE CEO SEES NO SHORT-TERM CONSOLIDATION IN FRANCE
2014-09-16 07:30:41.97 GMT

--CORMAC MULLEN

-0- Sep/16/2014 07:30 GMT

(BFW) BASF May Have to Delay 2015 EPS Goal by at Least 1 Yr: Berenberg

BASF May Have to Delay 2015 EPS Goal by at Least 1 Yr: Berenberg
2014-09-16 06:36:22.401 GMT


By Chiara Remondini
Sept. 16 (Bloomberg) -- BASF may have to postpone 2015 EPS
target of EU7.5 given FX headwinds, pricing pressure, startup
costs in upstream chemicals, lower volume growth, Berenberg says
in note.
* Berenberg (hold, PT EU75 vs EU77) says concerns about ROCE,
potential 2015 EPS target cut weighed on shrs in recent
months
* Notes weakening oil price, increasing competition in
upstream chemicals, “volatile performance” of downstream
chemicals
* Says BASF should consider strategic options for non-core
businesses in downstream chemicals to improve portfolio
resilience
* Says co. can achieve ~EU2.45b in cash from divestments,
which may be used for bolt-on acquisitions or share
buybacks
* Sees shrs as range-bound without portfolio pruning or
buyback
* NOTE: Shrs -0.6% YTD vs SX4P +0.9%
* NOTE Aug. 28: BASF may reset 2015, 2020 targets after
Gazprom asset swap: UBS
* NOTE June 19: BASF said key 2015/2020 financial targets
“ambitious;” saw 2015 sales of ~EU80b, Ebitda of ~EU14b,
EPS of ~EU7.50; 2020 sales of ~EU110b, Ebitda of ~EU22b


For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story:
Chiara Remondini in Milan at +39-02-8064-4241 or
cremondini@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-7673-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Jurjen van de Pol

(BofA-ML) Top Buy & Underperform ideas into Consumer Conference

* Bullish ABI, IMT & RB; Cautious BN, NESN & UNA
Ahead of our BofAML Global Consumer Conference (16-18th September) we highlight our top 3 European Buy & Underperform ideas – Buys: AB InBev, Imperial Tobacco & Reckitt, and Underperforms: Danone, Nestle, & Unilever. With Staples valuations relatively full (18.4x 2015E P/E) and the consumer outlook still sluggish, we remain most positive on stocks offering either best-in-class EPS growth, self-help and/or re-rating potential. By sub-sector, this leaves us most positive on Tobacco & HPC and Bearish on Large Cap Food. We are Neutral overall on Beverages but we expect material interest in brewer M&A post recent SAB/HEIA news. See valuation analysis p.3-4, comps p.20 & investment cases p.14-19.

* Consumer outlook remains weak, rate rise risks for EM’s…
We expect a generally cautious near term outlook for most regions. In our recent report – tracking the global consumer – we analyse a series of key consumer metrics for the global consumer and conclude that the outlook remains generally subdued. Western European is seeing a gradual recovery but deflationary risks persist, the North American consumer remains soft and the EM very mixed, with Mexico showing a strong rebound but other markets slowing e.g. South East Asia.
In addition we see wider risks for EM exposed stocks (both real and sentiment related) from a possible Fed rate rise – our US economists recently brought forward their estimate of an expected rate rise to June 2015 (from September 2015).

* …Cautious on Large Cap Food; prefer ABF, Kerry & Glanbia…
Against this backdrop we reinstate coverage on Large Cap Food with a cautious stance. Following 6yrs of outperformance driven by accelerating EM growth and improving returns on capital, we believe EPS growth is set to undershoot the market
on a three year horizon as DMs remain slow (deflation, competition in key categories) and EMs subdued. We expect a combination of exposure and strategy to differentiate stock performance, preferring those with secular growth, pricing
power and a transformational element to the story. We reinstate on Nestle and Danone with Underperform ratings and ABF with a Buy rating, favouring its retail expansion story. We also reiterate our Buys on Glanbia & Kerry Group.

* …Prefer HPC & Tobacco and within Beverages, AB InBev
We remain more positive on HPC, Tobacco and selective Beverage names. Reckitt is our top HPC pick given its shift towards higher growth and return categories. Within Tobacco we are most positive on Imperial given improving volumes in its
core W. European business and our estimate of above consensus EPS accretion form its recent US acquisition. We are Neutral on Beverages overall but very bullish on ABI given our estimate of a top end of sector 11% CAGR driven by strong
price/mix and cost saves with upside from Corona revenue synergies. While 2016 looks set to be a tougher year for Brazil beer (macro, world cup comps), we still expect healthy 7% EBIT growth given lower A&P and moderating FX headwinds.

>>> What to look at today - 16/09/2014

US Market closed mixed with large cap clsoing higher while high beta names underperformed with small cap too, China eco data over the week end was main reasons for pressure on markets, OECD lowered its 2014 GDP Forecast for the US (from 2.6% to 2.1%) and for Eurozone (from 1.2% to 0.8%), few tevhnology names weighted on the market..TWTR -5.24% FB -3.74% LNKD -7.16%WB -11.6% YELP -6.31%...AAPL closed alomst flat...Energy outperformed +0.7%, crude rebound 0.7% @ $92.89/bbl...volume remains light @ 600mil shares...VIX @ 14.12 +6.09%...US After Hours on Earnings COOL -18% ALOG -3.5%, on secondary offers GST -7.2%, LGP -3.7% OPXA -3.7% AA -0.9% (Mandatory Conv. preferred stock)...FOSL +0.35 on Glenview stake - 13G...Disappointing data from this week end continue to weight on Asian mkt, RBS loweed China GDP Targetto 7.2% from 7.6%...Former PBoC adviser Fan Gang was more upbeat, noting China annual GDP growth would only slow to an annual pace of 7.0-7.5% in 2016-2020, and that current conditions do not require stimulus policies...In Japan, Fin Min Aso reiterated his view that local economy is recovering moderately, however Econ Min Amari said adverse weather in July-Aug may have
harmed consumption. Recall PM Abe is counting on Q3 recovery in consumer spending and investment from sharp contraction in Q2 in order to justify another increase in Japan's sales tax come 2015...Also of note in Japan, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake hit just 2km WNW of Iwai - no injuries...Nikkei -0.19% Hange Seng -0.08% Shanghai -0.09%

Eur$ 1.2940 S&P +0.03% EuroStoxx +0.12% FTSE +0.22% DAX -0.03% SMI +0.16%

Macro
- Fed to Hike Gradually Amid Moderate Growth, FOMC Survey Shows
- China Growth Targeting Driving Finl Instability, S&P Says
- RAJAN: SOME EUROPE ECONOMIES HAVEN'T RECOVERED FROM 2008 CRISIS
- Banks Object to Reach of ECB Stress Test Oath: Handelsblatt

Keep an eye on :
- ABG LN : African Barrick to Be Renamed, Take Barrick Out of Name
- ABI BB : AB InBev Brazilian Billionaires Buy $6.91m of Brewer’s Stock
- ADP FP : Aeroports De Paris August Traffic Rises 5.2% to 9.3M Passengers
- AOI SS : Africa Oil: Boost in Resource Estimates of Kenya Oil Fields
- AREVA FP : Uranium enters bull market after closing at $34/lb in NY
- AV/ LN : Aviva CEO Sees Borrowing Costs Rising in an Independent Scotland
- BAS1V FH : Basware could be targeted by Mastercard -Kauppalehti (500m mkt cap)
- CU FP : Club Med appoints BM&A as independent expert to assess offer filed by Gaillon Invest II and Fidelidade
- DTE GY : Dish could seek to bid for TMUS following the spectrum auctions later this year, may offer up to $40/shr
- COP US : ConocoPhillips to Auction Stake in U.K.’s Largest Oil Field: FT
- FNC IM : Finmeccanica CEO Says 4 Offers for Transport Business: Ansa
- HEIA NA : Could see SAB paying the right price to see the deal happening.
- ICL IT : Israel Chemicals May Cut Investment Furthers at Home: Globes
- IOM LN : Iomart Says Cinven’s Host Europe Ended Takeover Talks
- JAZ SM : Orange to Offer EU13/Shr in Cash for Jazztel, bid is friendly, see €1.3b synergies from network - Exane note att.
- NFLX US : Netflix CEO Sees European Ops Profitable in 5-10 Yrs
- SAB LN : Could increase bid on Heineken
- SBMO NA : SBM Sees Up to $400m Sales From Noble Energy Production Deal
- SUN SW : Sulzer Buys Advanced Separation, ProLab For Oil&Gas Exposure
- TEC FP : Signed an agreement to sell 100% of its North American diving assets to Ranger Offshore Inc; terms not disclosed
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia seeks to merge Tim Brasil with Oi to avoid its takeover
- UTDI GY : United Internet Selling Up to 11m Shrs in Accelerated Bookbuild
- VOD LN : Vodafone considered joint takeover of Phones 4U

>>> Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 16/09/2014

>>> Up
*ALLIANZ RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT ODDO
*ANTOFAGASTA RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*AVANTI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT JEFFERIES
*HERMES RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS UNDERPERFORM AT CREDIT SUISSE
*LADBROKES RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT CITI
*MARSTON'S RAISED TO BUY VS SELL AT CITI
*MELIA HOTELS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*PADDY POWER RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*PEARSON RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY
*SODEXO RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI

>>> Down
*AVEVA CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN
*BWIN.PARTY CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*ENTERPRISE INNS CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*EUTELSAT CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT JEFFERIES
*ROSNEFT CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*TRW AUTOMOTIVE HOLDINGS CUT TO NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*ZURICH INSURANCE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT SOCGEN

>>> PT Changes


>>> Initiation
*MOBILY RATED NEW HOLD AT RENAISSANCE; PT SAR98
*RECKITT BENCKISER REINITIATED HOLD AT BERENBERG
*TRAVIS PERKINS RATED EQUALWEIGHT AT MORGAN STANLEY; PT 1,750P

>>> Call

>>> America Movil contacts AT&T, Softbank, others for telecom infrastructure sal

America Movil contacts AT&T, Softbank, others for telecom infrastructure sale 

America Movil, the largest wireless communication provider in Latin America, has sounded out interest of potential buyers of its telecommunication infrastructure including AT&T [NYSE: T], the US telecommunication giant, and Softbank [TYO: 9984], which scrapped a plan to purchase T-Mobile US [NYSE: TMUS] last month, according to a newswire report.

The infrastructure includes the one located in the east coast area in Mexico, and the sale value is estimated to reach as much as USD 17.5bn, Bloomberg reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the situation. The Mexican company has contacted AT&T and Softbank as well as China Mobile Ltd. [HKG: 0941] and Bell Canada, a unit of BCE Inc. [TSE: BCE], the report said.

The sale value could be 5 to 7 times of its USD 2.5bn EBITDA, reaching as much as USD 17.5bn, according to the report. America Movil has not launched an auction for the sale, as the company has not disclosed enough information yet on the telecommunication infrastructure, the Bloomberg report said.


Source Newswire Round-up

>>> Telecom Italia seeks to merge Tim Brasil with Oi to avoid its takeover

Telecom Italia seeks to merge Tim Brasil with Oi to avoid its takeover 

Telecom Italia (TI) is looking to merge its mobile phone subsidiary Tim Brasil, with the Brazilian telco Oi, Italian-language daily Il Sole 24 Ore reported.

The unsourced report said that TI is seeking a merger to avoid Oi leading a takeover of Tim Brasil.

Oi could ally with Claro, the Brazilian mobile phone subsidiary of America Movil, and Vivo, the Brazilian subsidiary of the Spanish, listed telco Telefonica, to mount any bid on Tim Brasil as it does not have the financial resources to carry out a takeover on its own. However, the item said that such an operation might run into regulatory difficulties with Anatel, Brazil's telecoms regulator.

The report said that TI CEO, Marco Patuano is hoping that he can convince Anatel for a merger with Oi on the grounds that it would create a national champion, something Anatel is keen to promote.

The merger may also win over the support of the Brazilian government. The report said that details of the project could be revealed at TI's board meeting on 25 September.


Source Il Sole 24 Ore

>>> Asian Update

Asian Market Update: Australia RBA, Treasury differ on property market risks

***Economic Data*** - (CN) CHINA AUG ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: -14.0% (to $7.2B) V -17.0% PRIOR - (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 111.3 v 113.3 prior (5-week low)

***Index Snapshot (as of 02:30 GMT)*** - Nikkei225 -0.3%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi +0.4%, Shanghai Composite -0.4%, Hang Seng morning session closed, Dec S&P500 flat at 1,976

***Commodities/Fixed Income/Currencies*** - Dec gold +0.2% at $1,237, Oct crude oil -0.1% at $92.80/brl, Dec copper -1.0% at $3.07/lb - (CN) China banks Aug net forex purchase for clients: CNY20.4B v CNY62.1B m/m - SAFE - (CN) PBoC to drain CNY15B in 14-day repos (15th consecutive drain)

***Market Focal Points/Key Themes*** - AUD/USD briefly spiked up nearly 20pips above $0.9050 on the release of RBA policy meeting minutes that showed renewed concern over the risks of rising housing prices. Specifically, RBA said macroeconomic stability would be in danger and that speculative demand increases the probability of a freefall, concluding the rising housing prices warrant close observation. Remarks from RBA Dep Gov Kent also expressed concern with rapidly rising home prices, however Treasurer Hockey said he does not see substantial risk in the sector and that Australia should produce more housing given the demand. Hockey also remarked growth would recover in 2015, given some encouraging recent trends in employment. Separately, ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence index slowed, but local economists forecasted improvement later this year, "supported by solid fundamentals such as low interest rates, rising house prices and a gradually strengthening labour market."

- Fallout from disappointing industrial output in China continued in today's session. RBS lowered China GDP target to 7.2% from 7.6%, and China Trade Ministry warned about uncertainties related to sustaining strong exports growth seen in the past two months of trade data. Former PBoC adviser Fan Gang was more upbeat, noting China annual GDP growth would only slow to an annual pace of 7.0-7.5% in 2016-2020, and that current conditions do not require stimulus policies. Shanghai Composite is among the laggards, further weighed down by continued decline in China foreign direct investment.

- In Japan, Fin Min Aso reiterated his view that local economy is recovering moderately, however Econ Min Amari said adverse weather in July-Aug may have harmed consumption. Recall PM Abe is counting on Q3 recovery in consumer spending and investment from sharp contraction in Q2 in order to justify another increase in Japan's sales tax come 2015. Econ Min Amari is calling on the govt to present policies to ensure consumer sentiment does not weaken further. Also of note in Japan, a 5.6 magnitude earthquake hit just 2km WNW of Iwai, shaking buildings in Tokyo and leading to suspension of train service. No reports on injuries or tsunami warnings have been issued.

***Equities*** US markets: - COP: To sell its 24% stake in Clair oilfield (North Sea) for up to $2-3B - FT; +0.1% afterhours - NFLX: CEO: Netflix to be profitable in Europe in 5-10 years - financial press; -1.8% afterhours - BABA: To raise IPO price range to $66-68/shr (v $60-66 initial range); to maintain number of shares sold - financial press

Notable movers by sector: - Consumer Discretionary: Qantas QAN.AU +2.2% (to operate additional flights) - Materials: Paladin Energy Limited PDN.AU -4.6% (lowers production guidance); Fortescue FMG.AU +2.5% (commodity prices higher) - Industrials: Shanghai Jinqiao Export Processing Zone Development 600639.CN +4.1%, Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade Zone Development 600648.CN +2.3% (Premier Li on China to be more and more open) - Utilities: Softbank 9984.JP +3.8% (holdings in Alibaba)