Reportedly planning to launch new compact RECamera, seen as competitor to GoPro, in October - tech blogs
Trying to fix some of the existing issues in iOS 8, Apple on Wednesday released a fast iOS 8.0.1 update that came with some unexpected surprises: iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus users who have installed it have quickly discovered their devices would no longer connect to their carrier of choice, and that the Touch ID sensor wasn’t functioning anymore. Since then, Apple has pulled the iOS 8.0.1 update, publishing a special support page on its website, which reveals that the company is looking to release iOS 8.0.2 in the coming days to fix the new issues.
“We have a workaround for you if you have an iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus and you lost cellular service and Touch ID functionality today after updating to iOS 8.0.1,” the company said. “You can reinstall iOS 8 through iTunes by following the instructions [at the source link] below. We are also preparing iOS 8.0.2 with a fix for the issue, and will release it as soon as it’s ready in the next few days.”
On the same page, Apple also published a quick iOS downgrade guide that should help users move from the faulty iOS 8.0.1 update back to iOS 8.0, in order to be able to still use cellular service and Touch ID on the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus while Apple is working on releasing iOS 8.0.2.
Apple also warns the Health app will not work in iOS 8 after the downgrade, but should be fixed in iOS 8.0.2.
Just like with any iOS downgrade, the procedure requires connecting the device to a Mac or PC with iTunes installed, and can’t be performed directly on the device – the full set of instructions is available at the source link after this post.
Antitrust Issues of Potential SABMiller - AB InBev Deal
Summary
The beer industry’s consolidation has accelerated over the past few years, with the big four - AB InBev (BUD:US), SABMiller (SAB:LN), Heineken (HEIA:NA) and Carlsberg (CARLB:DC) – now producing well over half of all beers and lagers sold globally.
SAB’s advances have recently been rejected by HEIA, leaving SAB vulnerable to a takeover by BUD. A merger between the
world's two biggest brewers would put them in control of about a third of global beer supply and almost half of global beer profits.
Although it sounds like a tall order, such a deal is doable within a timeframe of about a year.
The two companies would complete each other in many regions. SAB dominates in a number of African countries where BUDhas almost no presence, and also has strong market position in Australia through Foster's, whereas BUD is a minor player.
Moreover, SAB has quasi-monopolies in Colombia, Peru, and Ecuador, where BUD has been trying to break in. On the other
hand, BUD is a market leader in Brazil, as well as in Mexico through Modelo, and in Canada through Labatt.
SAB and BUD overlap in the U.S. and China, the two most important beer markets in the world. This is where antitrust issues are likely to arise.
In the U.S., BUD is the largest beer manufacturer, accounting for a 47% share of total volume sales in 2013. MillerCoors is
second with about 25% of the U.S. market. MillerCoors is 58% owned by SAB and 42% by Molson Coors (TAP:US). SAB would
probably have to exit the joint venture in order for a merger with BUD to be approved in the U.S.
In China, a SAB-BUD merger would combine the number one and number three players. SAB is in a joint venture with
government-backed China Resources Enterprise in the brewer of Snow Beer, the number one selling beer in the world and the most popular brand in China. China Resources Snow Breweries had a beer volume share of 22% in 2012, while BUD disclosed a 13.4% market share. BUD might have to dispose of or end its partnerships with a number of smaller local brewers in order to obtain Chinese antitrust clearance.
Despite the substantial regulatory risk, we would ascribe an ePOD© of 85% if an agreed bid did materialize.
Special Situations: Zalando’s IPO
No BABA; re-iterating BUY rec on Asos and Yoox
ASC LN: GBP 19.81; YOOX IM: Eur 17.15
September 25, 2014
Zalando is going to be another high profile internet IPO. Zalando is an on-line fashion retailer. It competes directly with Yoox, Net-a-porter.com, and Asos, and of course a bunch of other net retailers, not to mention the websites of brand names themselves. The placing for the shares is about to finish, and there is no doubt that the offering will be oversubscribed and the IPO very successful. Trading should start October 1. While we were very positive on Alibaba, we are more prudent on Zalando. Firstly, Zalando does not make any money, whether at the EBITDA, cash flow, or EBIT level. This is very different from Alibaba for sure, but also from competitors Yoox and Asos which have been profitable from their IPOs. In addition, the stock looks overpriced. As it makes no money, we had to look at the gross margins being generated. These are around 40% for Zalando, compared to almost 50% for Asos and 38% for Yoox. However, Zalando is being priced on a EV/Sales multiple of 1.9x (and probably over 2x on the first day of trading) compared to 1.3x and 1.6x for Asos and Yoox respectively. We would advise investors that do subscribe to Zalando to “flip” it on the first day, and switch into Asos and Yoox. We also re-iterate our BUY rating on Asos and Yoox. The shares have corrected heavily and the Zalando IPO should re-focus the market on these two names.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
France government to announce 2015 budget on Oct 1st, to detail around €21B in spending cuts - press
- Reportedly the 2015 budget will be seen as a roadmap for another €29 billion in cuts President Hollande has vowed to make in 2016 and 2017.
- PM Valls won a confidence vote last week by only 25 votes, as the defection of 31 Socialist MPs caused the government to lose its absolute majority.
Early premarket gappers
Gapping up: RNN +14.5%, CYBR +11.9%, RLGT +11.5%, MHR +10.1%, XGTI +7.8%, JBL +5.9%, VOD +2.6%, WOR +2.6%, RKUS +1.1%, MU +0.9%, FLEX +0.6%, SCHL +0.5%
Gapping down: FUL -5.1%, NBG -4%, GFI -3.4%, AU -2.7%, BHP -2.4%, STO -2.2%, ARCW -1.9%, GOLD -1.7%, RIO -1.3%, BP -1.2%, SDRL -1.2%, SLV -1.1%, GDX -0.9%, RDS.A -0.8%, RIG -0.8%, AUY -0.8%, IAG -0.7%, TOT -0.6%, OFIX -0.6%
Gapping down: FUL -5.1%, NBG -4%, GFI -3.4%, AU -2.7%, BHP -2.4%, STO -2.2%, ARCW -1.9%, GOLD -1.7%, RIO -1.3%, BP -1.2%, SDRL -1.2%, SLV -1.1%, GDX -0.9%, RDS.A -0.8%, RIG -0.8%, AUY -0.8%, IAG -0.7%, TOT -0.6%, OFIX -0.6%
*MAS TO FORMALLY CALL CATALAN INDEPENDENCE VOTE SEPT. 27: EFE
Airbus announced in the next 20 years passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7% driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft
In the next 20 years (2014-2033), according to Airbus' Global Market Forecast, passenger traffic will grow annually at 4.7% driving a need for around 31,400 new passenger and freighter aircraft (100 seats and above) worth $4.6 trillion. The passenger and freighter fleet will increase from today's 18,500 aircraft to 37,500 by 2033, an increase of nearly 19,000 aircraft. Some 12,400 older less fuel efficient passenger and freighter aircraft will be retired.
The economic growth rates in emerging markets such as Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, are outstripping more economically developed regions.
"We see especially strong growth in widebody twins such as our A350 XWB and A330neo. Demand exceeds supply for these new generation aircraft, especially in the 2017 to 2022 time period and beyond, so naturally we are studying production increases on both models."
Trade action flash – Luxury merry-go-round continues: Italian fashion: Long Tod’s / Short LVMH; Long Prada / Short Kering, Ferragamo
September 25, 2014
MRPT© mean reverting pair trading strategies
TOD IM: Eur 81.85; SFER IM: Eur22.32; BC IM: Eur 16.94; MONC IM: Eur 11.60; 1913 HK: HK$48.20; KER FP: Eur 160.50
The European luxury sector has had a very difficult time performance wise in the last 1-2 years with most stocks having peaked relative to the Eurostoxx in 2012-2013. Not one stock is in an uptrend, whether in relative or absolute terms. This is for a sector where analysts were universally bullish. We had been bearish on this sector on valuation grounds for quite some time, and with some of the strongest stocks clearly topping-out and in clear relative downtrends (Richemont, LVMH, Kering), our view is becoming well vindicated. In this environment, we regularly come-up with long/short ideas in what is generally an extremely mean reverting sector, playing on the over/under performance of companies against each others, mainly based on stock performances post earnings announcements. It seems that in the sector, earning estimates go one quarter to the next from being over estimated to under estimated. This has been a very profitable merry-go-round for the MRPT strategies. As of now, two stocks appear conspicuously undervalued in the Italian fashion sector: TOD’s and Prada. On the other hand, Ferragamo, Kering (Gucci), and especially Bruno Cucinelli appear overvalued. Cucinelli has already collapsed from its recent highs and we would wait for the stock to hopefully rally to re-recommend shorting the stock. Tod’s/LVMH and Prada/Kering, Prada/Ferragamo are three very mean reverting pair trades, justified by relative value and the recent price/value dislocation. Moreover, as we have argued before, we believe that in time, Tod’s will be acquired by LVMH given the close relationship between Diego Della Valle and Bernard Arnault. Mr. Della Valle is on LVMH’s board, while LVMH owns over 2% of Tod’s. As such, we are always buyers of Tod’s on significant underperformance within the sector, which is the case right now.
FULL REPORT ATTACHED
Trujillo Is Said to Seek $9.6 Billion for Telecom Italia Bid
2014-09-25 09:39:38.104 GMT
By Daniele Lepido and Jeffrey McCracken
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Former Telstra Corp. Chief
Executive Officer Sol Trujillo is seeking to raise as much as
7.5 billion euros ($9.6 billion) to bid for a stake in Telecom
Italia SpA, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trujillo has discussed the plan with New York-based
financial advisers, and sovereign-wealth funds in Qatar and Abu
Dhabi are among investors that have expressed interest, said the
people, asking not to be named because the proposal is private.
Trujillo hasn’t approached Telecom Italia’s board or executives
because the plan isn’t fully funded and he wants to secure
support from Italy’s government before making a move, they said.
The proposal would foresee 62-year-old Trujillo, who
previously led US West Communications, France’s Orange SA and
Telstra of Australia, taking over as chief executive officer and
bringing in managers to Milan-based Telecom Italia, according to
confidential documents seen by Bloomberg News detailing the
project, dubbed “Adriano.”
An investment of $9.6 billion would be equivalent to almost
half of Telecom Italia’s market value. Telecom Italia had net
debt of $35 billion as of June 30. While financial details of
the plan are still being worked on, Trujillo’s investment could
take the form of a proposed capital increase or buying Telecom
Italia shares on the market, the people said.
Project ‘Adriano’
Trujillo views the proposed investment as a way to benefit
from a Telecom Italia turnaround over time, rather than a short-
term financial gain, the people said.
Telefonica SA and three Italian financial investors --
Mediobanca SA, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Assicurazioni Generali
SpA -- are currently winding down the holding company that owns
22.4 percent of Telecom Italia.
Trujillo declined to comment when reached by Bloomberg
News. Representatives of sovereign-wealth funds in Abu Dhabi and
Qatar declined to comment or didn’t immediately respond to
requests for comment.
A spokesman for Telecom Italia declined to comment.
Senior Italian officials are aware of Project “Adriano”
and the government is open to the idea of a foreign investor in
Telecom Italia, the people said. A government representative
couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
While Italy’s government doesn’t own a stake in Telecom
Italia, state support is seen as crucial because it could veto
deals involving industries it considers to be of national
interest.
GVT Bid
Acquiring a stake in Italy’s largest phone company would
follow the company’s failed bid for Brazilian broadband provider
GVT. Under Trujillo’s plan, which calls for expanding an ultra-
high-speed fiber network in Italy, Telecom Italia’s revenue
would reach 26 billion euros by 2018, with earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rising to about
11 billion euros and net debt falling to less than 16 billion
euros, according to the documents.
Trujillo’s attempt to return to telecommunications wouldn’t
be his first after running phone companies on three continents.
In 2012, he engineered a takeover bid for U.S. mobile carrier T-
Mobile USA, but failed to garner enough interest from private-
equity firms, people familiar with the matter said at the time.
Trujillo got his start at AT&T Corp., then known as Ma
Bell, before its 1984 breakup. He eventually became CEO of US
West, one of the seven Bell operating companies, and later ran
French mobile-phone operator Orange for a year.
After Orange’s takeover by France Telecom SA, Trujillo in
2005 became the CEO of Melbourne-based Telstra, from which he
resigned in 2009 after a tenure marked by clashes with the
Australian government over telecommunications regulation.
Representatives of Trujillo’s group and Italian government
officials have held confidential meetings since May over Project
“Adriano,” the name of a Roman emperor, said one of the
people.
--With assistance from Robert Tuttle in Doha, Ville Heiskanen in
Helsinki and Matthew Martin in Dubai.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Daniele Lepido in Milan at +39-02-8064-4266 or
dlepido1@bloomberg.net;
Jeffrey McCracken in New York at +1-212-617-8517 or
jmccracken3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Kenneth Wong at +49-30-70010-6215 or
kwong11@bloomberg.net
Kenneth Wong, Jacqueline Simmons
2014-09-25 09:39:38.104 GMT
By Daniele Lepido and Jeffrey McCracken
Sept. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Former Telstra Corp. Chief
Executive Officer Sol Trujillo is seeking to raise as much as
7.5 billion euros ($9.6 billion) to bid for a stake in Telecom
Italia SpA, according to people familiar with the matter.
Trujillo has discussed the plan with New York-based
financial advisers, and sovereign-wealth funds in Qatar and Abu
Dhabi are among investors that have expressed interest, said the
people, asking not to be named because the proposal is private.
Trujillo hasn’t approached Telecom Italia’s board or executives
because the plan isn’t fully funded and he wants to secure
support from Italy’s government before making a move, they said.
The proposal would foresee 62-year-old Trujillo, who
previously led US West Communications, France’s Orange SA and
Telstra of Australia, taking over as chief executive officer and
bringing in managers to Milan-based Telecom Italia, according to
confidential documents seen by Bloomberg News detailing the
project, dubbed “Adriano.”
An investment of $9.6 billion would be equivalent to almost
half of Telecom Italia’s market value. Telecom Italia had net
debt of $35 billion as of June 30. While financial details of
the plan are still being worked on, Trujillo’s investment could
take the form of a proposed capital increase or buying Telecom
Italia shares on the market, the people said.
Project ‘Adriano’
Trujillo views the proposed investment as a way to benefit
from a Telecom Italia turnaround over time, rather than a short-
term financial gain, the people said.
Telefonica SA and three Italian financial investors --
Mediobanca SA, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA and Assicurazioni Generali
SpA -- are currently winding down the holding company that owns
22.4 percent of Telecom Italia.
Trujillo declined to comment when reached by Bloomberg
News. Representatives of sovereign-wealth funds in Abu Dhabi and
Qatar declined to comment or didn’t immediately respond to
requests for comment.
A spokesman for Telecom Italia declined to comment.
Senior Italian officials are aware of Project “Adriano”
and the government is open to the idea of a foreign investor in
Telecom Italia, the people said. A government representative
couldn’t immediately be reached for comment.
While Italy’s government doesn’t own a stake in Telecom
Italia, state support is seen as crucial because it could veto
deals involving industries it considers to be of national
interest.
GVT Bid
Acquiring a stake in Italy’s largest phone company would
follow the company’s failed bid for Brazilian broadband provider
GVT. Under Trujillo’s plan, which calls for expanding an ultra-
high-speed fiber network in Italy, Telecom Italia’s revenue
would reach 26 billion euros by 2018, with earnings before
interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rising to about
11 billion euros and net debt falling to less than 16 billion
euros, according to the documents.
Trujillo’s attempt to return to telecommunications wouldn’t
be his first after running phone companies on three continents.
In 2012, he engineered a takeover bid for U.S. mobile carrier T-
Mobile USA, but failed to garner enough interest from private-
equity firms, people familiar with the matter said at the time.
Trujillo got his start at AT&T Corp., then known as Ma
Bell, before its 1984 breakup. He eventually became CEO of US
West, one of the seven Bell operating companies, and later ran
French mobile-phone operator Orange for a year.
After Orange’s takeover by France Telecom SA, Trujillo in
2005 became the CEO of Melbourne-based Telstra, from which he
resigned in 2009 after a tenure marked by clashes with the
Australian government over telecommunications regulation.
Representatives of Trujillo’s group and Italian government
officials have held confidential meetings since May over Project
“Adriano,” the name of a Roman emperor, said one of the
people.
--With assistance from Robert Tuttle in Doha, Ville Heiskanen in
Helsinki and Matthew Martin in Dubai.
To contact the reporters on this story:
Daniele Lepido in Milan at +39-02-8064-4266 or
dlepido1@bloomberg.net;
Jeffrey McCracken in New York at +1-212-617-8517 or
jmccracken3@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Kenneth Wong at +49-30-70010-6215 or
kwong11@bloomberg.net
Kenneth Wong, Jacqueline Simmons