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Templeton’s Mobius Sees China Heading in ‘Right Direction’: FUW 2014-07-08 16:16:52.86 GMT
By Jeffrey Vögeli July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Opening of formerly state-run sections of Chinese economy to bring “unexpected growth dynamic,” says Franklin Templeton fund manager Mark Mobius, according to Swiss newspaper Finanz und Wirtschaft. Mobius also says: * Some Chinese companies will go bankrupt as economy restructured * India stock market “euphoria” after Modi’s election “somewhat exaggerated,” investors should wait until market corrects * PetroChina Co Ltd, Ambev SA, Samsung Electronics Co. among Mobius’ preferred stocks
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To contact the reporter on this story: Jeffrey Vögeli in Zurich at +41-44-224-4107 or jvogeli@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Frank Connelly at +33-1-5365-5063 or fconnelly@bloomberg.net
The Fourth Proposal Tops the Others (Until the Next Proposal)
This morning, AbbVie Inc. (NYSE-ABBV) announced a Fourth Proposal in its attempt to co-join with Shire PLC (Nasdaq-SHPG, LSE-SHP). The updated merger consideration is comprised of £22.44 cash and 0.8568 ABBV per SHP share (for an indicative value of £51.15). Using a 1.7115 USD/GBP exchange ratio, the proposal valued SHPG at $262.55 per share (based on the ABBV closing price of $57.40 on 7/7/14). The implied proposal premiums for SHPG shares are 37% to the prior day ($191.71), 47% to the prior 20 day average close ($178.88), 51% to the prior 40 day average close ($174.38) and 86% to 12/31/13 ($141.29). The implied 2014E and 2015E valuation multiples for standalone SHPG (deal-related excluding any tax efficiencies and operating synergies) are 20.0x and 17.9x EV/EBITDA and 27.0x and 24.4x P/E, respectively. Later in the morning, SHPG released a statement noting ABBV did not give the company notice of its “revised conditional non-binding proposal” before it was publicly announced and that its Board will meet to review it.
The latest proposal was made 10 days before the 7/18/14 deadline for the firm intention of an offer to SHP. The implied deal value is an 11% increase over the prior £46.26 per SHP share indicative value and is inline with shareholder expectations of a $260/share deal price. The current proposal reflects a 31% premium to the initial indicative value of £38.97. Despite the apparent “good news” of the higher proposal price, SHPG shares traded down to the low-$230s (after being indicated in the $240/share range pre-market). Our thoughts on the weakened ABBV price in trading today are as follows: • The recent failed attempt by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE-PFE) to reach an agreement to merger with UK-incorporated AstraZeneca PLC (NYSE-AZN) after making four proposals does not inspire much confidence that this situation will be different; • ABBV share price has traded straight down this morning which we ascribe to a mix of additional share hedging (both the proposal and the sector) and concerns that the stock will return to the low-mid $50s range on no transaction; • Expectations that ABBV would increase its proposal had been priced into SHPG over the past week and investors are taking profits on the trade; and • ABBV has been bidding against itself and is running out of room to meaningfully increase the merger value of a final Proposal.
Assuming a $210/share SHPG downside (similar to the ~20% discount to the last PFE proposal of £46.26 per AZN share indicative value), the deal probability has swung from 60% pre-market to 40% currently. We believe 50% is more appropriate (at least until the SHPG Board issues a formal response) and that the dynamics of this situation are better than the AZN/PFE. On 6/20/14, SHPG rejected ABBV’s Third Proposal, emphasizing that it undervalued the “full benefits” of its growth strategy to double revenues to $10B by 2020 (“10x20” plan). This does not seem to be outright rejection of an unsolicited proposal based on a long-term business strategy to bring conceptual R&D products to market (the AZN defense) but rather ascribing the right price premium for an existing drug portfolio with product extension possibilities. We believe this latest proposal is meant to at least get the parties to the table to have meaningful discussions (which is one step farther that AZN/PFE).
SHPG does not have the same political and economic exposure in the UK as AZN, and ABBV is less that half the size of PFE. While a transaction is not going to fly under the radar screen, it certainly should attract less attention over tax efficiencies than the PFE proposal; ABBV had an overall FY13 tax rate of ~22% compared to 27% for PZE. ABBV may have limited room to increase its current proposal; we estimate 4% P/F 2014 EPS accretion using $500M savings, a 5.5% blended interest expense, and an adjusted 13% tax rate for ABBV standalone and deal synergies. However, we believe SHPG could trade up to the mid-$240s if the parties at minimum agree to have serious discussions prior to the upcoming firm offer deadline. The companies seem to have more compatible corporate cultures than AZN/PFE; SHPG has had a history of making tuck-in acquisitions and ABBV was spun off from Abbott Laboratories (NYSE-ABT) in 2013. We believe that ABBV is committed to a transformative deal; the proposal put forth today is a signal of support from SHPG shareholders that had indicated $260/share was an acceptable takeover value.
2014-07-08 13:23:27.81 GMT
By Catherine Larkin
July 8 (Bloomberg) --
Link to June 11 letter: {NSN N8EAG2BE07IB <go>}
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clarkin4@bloomberg.net
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: IPCI -10.3%, ACTS -5.5%, ACLS -3.1%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -3.5%, ING -2.4%, LYG -2.3%, UBS -1.5%, BCS -1.3%, DB -1.3%, SAN -0.9%, CS -0.9%, HSBC -0.9%, .
Select Airline related stocks trading lower following Air France lowered guidance: DAL -1.5%, JBLU -1.4%, LUV -1.1%.
Other news: ZGNX -8.5% (following FDA granting priority review designation for Purdue Pharma's once-daily hydrocodone Bitartrate Extended-Release tablets formulated with abuse-deterrent properties news), CAMT -6.2% (pulling back from yesterday's advance), USU -5.5% (Court approves USEC disclosure statement; Chapter 11 process moves forward; Voting on Plan of Reorganization begins soon), SDRL -3.5% (launches $1 billion 2019 convertible bond concurrently with a voluntary incentive payment offer to convert the existing $650 million 3.375% convertible bond due 2017), BLUE -3% (commenced an underwritten public offering of $100 million of its common stock, PSTI -2.6% (initiates South Korean Arm of multinational Phase II Intermittent Claudication trial ), CGEN-2.3% (still checking), TAT -1.3% (co announced that net sales for the second quarter of 2014 are expected to be slightly lower than net production), TSLA -0.9% (target of trademark infringement case, according to reports out overnight).
Analyst comments: TFM -6.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), CSC -0.6% (initiated with a Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
In reaction to earnings/guidance: PHG +3.6%, ASX +0.6%.
M&A news: MIC +6.1% (to acquire the 50% of International-Matex Tank Terminals it does not currently own.for $910.0 mln in cash and $115.0 mln in stock; co to raises Q2 dividend 1.3% to $0.95.), SHPG +0.8% (AbbVie (ABBV) raises bid for Shire; Fourth Proposal represents indicative value of GBP51.151 as of July 7, 2014), .
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MUX +2.5%, HMY +2.4%, AUY +1.9%, AU +1.8%, PAAS +1.3%, GDX +0.9%.
Other news: NURO +28.6% (FDA clears NURO wearable technology for OTC use in treatment of chronic pain), CERE +14.3% (licenses DNA browser software to Bayer (BAYRY) CropScience), APP +5.7% (Standard General disclosed 0.9% stake in 13D with letter agreement), DNDN +5.2% (extending late gains in premarket trade), BODY +3.9% (683 Capital Management disclosed 18.9% active stake in 13D filing), PHH +3.3% (completed divestiture of its Fleet Management Services Business; co intends to repurchase up to $450 mln in stock, redeem its 9.25% Sr. Notes due 2016; deploy up to $200 mln to re-engineer mortgage business; invest up to $150 mln in select growth initiatives), GTAT +3.3% (early strength following yesterday's 12% selloff), FSC +2.3% (announces a 10% increase to its monthly dividend), KOOL +2.2% (provides regulatory update on its proposed U.S. Pivotal Critical Limb Ischemia Clinical Trial), TTM +2% (strong India mkts overnight), DRYS +1.6% (announces Ocean Rig UDW (ORIG) proposed offering by its wholly owned subsidiaries of $500.0 mln senior secured notes due 2022), LOV +1.5% (named Michael McConnell Chairman), CEL+1.4% (announces results of its debenture offering in Israel).
Analyst comments: TXMD +22.8% (initiated with a Outperform at FBR Capital), CGI +7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel), GRPN +6.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley & Co), MRD +3.7% (initiated with an Overweight at Barclays, initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James, among others), ABY +3.7% (initiated with a Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts and Buy at Citigroup),GES +2.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), ECYT +2.3% (assumed with a Buy at Brean Capital), SIMO +1.5% (target raised to $28 at Needham), XRX +0.9% (initiated with a Overweight at Morgan Stanley), WMB +0.7% (added to US Focus list at Credit Suisse), RIO +0.6% (upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays), VALE +0.4% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays)